The storm chasing season tried very hard to get started yesterday, but it just wasn’t meant to be. All of the ingredients were in place, but a deck of cirrus clouds (which limited instability by keeping surface temperatures down), strong cap and weak forcing on the warm front and dryline boundaries prevented any storms from forming until sunset.
It was a tough decision not to chase, but in the end, driving for 2-3 hours only to chase for at most 45 minutes and then have to drive the same 2-3 hours home just wasn’t worth it. When it was all said and done, quite a few hail-producing storms went up in Kansas, but all the action was after sunset. We’ll give it another shot next time.
Today is a much different story as far as storm coverage and boundary forcing goes. The SPC has a Moderate Risk up for much of Arkansas and southern Missouri, and storms have already begun to initiate on the cold front and dryline in eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. All aspects of severe weather are possible: tornadoes, wind, and hail. The highest risk of tornadoes will be across the southern half of Missouri and the northern half of Arkansas. It will definitely be worth watching this afternoon.