Below you will find the latest state and provincial projections from the 15 April model run of my COVID-19 model for the US and Canada. I have included states and provinces that are in “hot” areas in both countries, as well as places where I have friends, family, and other loved ones. I alphabetized the plots by state or province name. The thick blue line represents the actual or observed data, and the other lines indicate the model predictions.

I only ran the models out until early May because we need to focus on what’s going to happen in the next two to three weeks, not what’s going to be happening several months in the future. Additionally, model forecasts get less accurate the further into the future you go. This run assumes current social distancing restrictions remain in place through mid-May and does not account for any additional surges or waves of the virus that may occur later this spring, this summer, or this fall.

Don’t forget, you can always get more information about the model and view detailed case data on my COVID-19 Dashboard. Additionally, I will write up a separate post about the mathematics, equations, and methodologies used in my coronavirus model, which I’m hoping to get posted in the next day or two. Stay tuned for additional discussions about each hot zone as more data comes in.

Alberta

COVID-19 Model: Alberta

Arizona

COVID-19 Model: Arizona

British Columbia

COVID-19 Model: British Columbia

California

COVID-19 Model: California

Connecticut

COVID-19 Model: Connecticut

Florida

COVID-19 Model: Florida

Georgia

COVID-19 Model: Georgia

Illinois

COVID-19 Model: Illinois

Louisiana

COVID-19 Model: Louisiana

Maryland

COVID-19 Model: Maryland

Massachusetts

COVID-19 Model: Massachusetts

Michigan

COVID-19 Model: Michigan

New Jersey

COVID-19 Model: New Jersey

New York

COVID-19 Model: New York

Ohio

COVID-19 Model: Ohio

Oklahoma

Oklahoma

Ontario

Ontario

Oregon

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania

Québec

Quebec

Rhode Island

Rhode Island

South Dakota

South Dakota

Tennessee

Tennessee

Texas

Texas

U.S. Virgin Islands

US Virgin Islands

Washington (State)

Washington State

After several requests, I updated this post on 16 April, 2020 to include additional states and provinces, bringing the total to 26 plots instead of 24.

Top Photo: Palo Duro Canyon State Park – Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

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