Last week, we looked at 15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Western United States. If you’re on the east coast, it’s your turn today. Let’s look at 15 COVID-friendly adventures in the Eastern United States that are proven to boost your mental health and refresh your soul.

A Word of Caution About Adventuring During the Pandemic

Just because we’re talking about fun adventures today does not mean it’s a green light to let loose. Don’t forget we’re still in the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic. Please consider the following precautions to ensure your safety during the COVID crisis.

• Stay close to home and stick to day trips.
• Only travel with people you live with. This is not the time to invite all of your friends.
• Obey all state and local COVID-19 restrictions, ordinances, and mandates.
• Pack food, drinks, and hand sanitizer so you don’t need to interact with the public.
• Don’t forget to be prepared for non-COVID hazards. Snow and ice can negatively impact many of these adventures.
• Always check the weather forecast and road conditions when traveling during the winter.

Now, let’s kick those Covid blues and put your mental health on the fast track to happiness.

1. Historic Route 66 – Illinois, Missouri, and Oklahoma

Is there anything more American than getting your kicks on Route 66? The eastern half of Historic Route 66 runs connects Chicago and Oklahoma City. The route runs along what is currently Interstates 44 and 55. However, you’ll find a much more authentic experience if you get off the freeway and drive the original road.

You’ll find a wide diversity of landscapes along the way. From the rolling hills of eastern Oklahoma to Missouri’s Ozark Mountains to the agricultural plains in Illinois, there is no shortage of great photo opportunities.

2. Tamiami Trail – Florida

Prior to the construction of Interstate 75, the Tamiami Trail was the only route connecting Tampa and Miami. You’ll find the best photo ops as the Tamiami Trail winds its way through the guts of the Everglades. Find a safe spot to pull off on the side of the road. Sit, watch, and enjoy the solitude. You’ll see alligators, birds, fish, lizards, and much more.

In addition, the many parks, preserves, and wildlife refuges on the west coast of the Florida peninsula make for excellent side trips. Just a few of my favorites include the JN “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel Island, Big Cypress National Preserve east of Naples, and and the Terra Ceia State Park and Aquatic Preserve north of Bradenton. On the Miami side, stop off at the Everglades and Francis S. Taylor Wildlife Refuges for additional nature and landscape photo ops.

3. Newfound Gap Road – North Carolina and Tennessee

Newfound Gap Road runs through the heart of Great Smoky Mountains National Park. It connects Cherokee, North Carolina with Gatlinburg, Tennessee. Pull off at any of the turnouts to find classic mountain views, lush forest scenery, and refreshing rivers. The best views are at the summit of Newfound Gap, which sits right on the state line. Be aware though, it can be crowded there.

To get away from the crowds, consider hiking a short ways down the Appalachian Trail. In addition to a bit more solace, you’ll get views that most others won’t see. You can also find more great views along the road to Clingman’s Dome. However, Clingman’s Dome can be busy and the road often closes in the winter due to snow and ice.

Please check road conditions before going in the winter. The road is narrow, with many sharp curves and steep switchbacks. The summit of Newfound Gap is over 6,000 feet (1,830 meters) above sea level and often closes in the winter due to snow and ice. If you’re not comfortable driving in snow and ice, I recommend avoiding this route.

4. Kancamagus Highway – New Hampshire

The Kancamagus Highway runs through the heart of the White Mountain National Forest in the shadow of Mt. Washington. While northern New England is best known for its spectacular fall colors, the Kancamagus Highway offers beautiful photo ops year round.

While you’re in the area, I also highly recommend driving north up Interstate 93 to Franconia. You’ll be treated to breathtaking views of the White Mountains. On the east end of the Kancamagus, stop and photograph any of the many covered bridges in the Conway area.

For the more adventurous, take a drive up Mount Washington during the warmer months. At the summit, you’ll see where some of the most extreme weather in the world is observed and studied. Scientists measured a wind gust of 231 mph (372 km/h) at the summit of Mt. Washington on 12 April, 1934. That record stood as the strongest wind gust ever measured on earth until the 3 May, 1999 tornado in Oklahoma. Today, it still stands as the strongest non-tornadic wind gust ever recorded.

5. Great River Road – Arkansas and Tennessee

Why risk exposing yourself to COVID-19 on one of the Mississippi River cruises when you can drive it instead? While you can drive along the river for its entire length, the best scenery is in Tennessee and Arkansas, with southern Missouri close behind it. Travel at your own pace, stop for some great photo ops, and find a quiet place for a nice picnic lunch along the river.

6. Discovery Route – South Carolina

Come out and explore everything South Carolina has to offer. The Discovery Route runs from Walhalla, in the far northwest, to Charleston. Along the way, you’ll be presented with photo ops of mountains, oceans, agriculture, rivers, and more. Stop at any of the state’s roadside fruit stands for a treat you won’t soon forget. If you’re there in August or September, South Carolina’s peaches are absolutely to die for.

7. Old King’s Highway – Massachusetts

Get an in-depth and hands-on introduction to Cape Cod’s culture, food, and scenery. Starting at the Sagamore Bridge, follow US-6 to its eastern terminus in Provincetown. Get off and explore historic towns on Massachusetts Highway 6A. Pack a picnic and have lunch at one of the Cape’s many world-famous beaches. As an added bonus, Cape Cod is headed into its offseason right now, so you’ll avoid the summer crowds.

The highlight of the drive is the Cape Cod National Seashore. Stop off anywhere on the eastern shores of Cape Cod. You’ll find incredible aerial and beach-level photo ops of the seashore. Taking a calming walk on the beach and enjoying the fresh sea air is a great temporary escape from reality, too.

8. Delaware Water Gap – New Jersey and Pennsylvania

The Delaware Water Gap is a breathtaking gap in the Appalachians where Interstate 80 crosses the Delaware River. While the area right around I-80 is popular due to its ease of access, the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area extends north most of the way to the New York state line. With so much room to spread out, there is no shortage of spots to tuck yourself away from crowds.

Taking a hike, going for a swim, and enjoying a relaxing afternoon on the boat are just a few of the many outdoor activities available at the Delaware Water Gap. Just choose your side of the river carefully, as river crossings are few and far between. Most of the recreation area is on the New Jersey side of the river, but the main north-south highway is on the Pennsylvania side.

9. Blue Ridge Parkway – Virginia and North Carolina

The Blue Ridge Parkway is one of the most scenic and well-known drives east of the Mississippi River. Stretching from Waynesboro, Virginia to Cherokee, North Carolina, there are new scenic vistas around every turn. Explore side expeditions including hiking trails, waterfalls, mountain biking, wildflowers, camping and much more.

If that’s not enough, there are national parks at each end of the Blue Ridge Parkway. At its northern terminus, take in the magnificent sights at Shenandoah National Park. At the south end, explore the majestic mountains of Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

10. Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway – Maine

Sitting in western Maine just a stone’s throw from both New Hampshire and Quebec, the Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway is a true hidden gem. While the scenery is gorgeous any time of year, it is truly exceptional during the fall colors season. Make sure you stop at the Height of Land Overlook and take in the breathtaking views of Lake Mooselookmeguntic.

If you have additional time, find additional scenic scenery on Old Canada Road (US-201). Running from Skowhegan to the Canadian border, there are ample photo ops featuring mountains, rivers, forests, and more. Keep in mind that the US-Canada border is currently closed to all non-essential travel.

11. Panhandle Scenic Drive – Florida

If you’re looking for a relaxing beach getaway, Florida’s Panhandle Scenic Drive is for you. Take in the ocean, beaches, bays, and bayous as you make your way along US-98 between Apalachicola and the Alabama State Line. Once you get away from the population centers, you’ll pass through marshes, forests, and wildlife refuges.

Don’t be afraid to get off the beaten path a bit. For an even more unique escape, explore some of these areas in a boat. The entire coast of Florida is dotted with small islands that are only accessible by boat. What better way to boost your mental health than spending a day in the fresh salty air, away from civilization.

12. Talimena Scenic Byway – Oklahoma and Arkansas

Stretching across the top of a mountain ridge at an elevation of 2,000 to 3,000 feet, the Talimena Scenic Drive is hands down the best place in Oklahoma to view fall foliage. Listed as one of America’s National Scenic Byways, the 100 kilometer (60 mile) drive winds through the beautiful Ouachita National Forest and the majestic Kiamichi Mountains, connecting Talihina, Oklahoma to Mena, Arkansas.

If you’ve ever driven the Blue Ridge Parkway, you’ll be right at home on the Talimena Scenic Byway. There are stunning aerial views of mountains, valleys, forests, and farmland around every corner. Find a quiet spot to pull off, have a picnic lunch, breathe the fresh mountain air, and watch the world go by. Your mental health will thank you.

Note: The Talimena Scenic Drive is not maintained in the winter. If there are concerns about snow and ice, please consider driving US-59 through the valley instead.

13. Merritt Parkway – Connecticut

You may think it’s hard to partake in COVID-friendly adventures in such a densely populated area that is so close to New York City. Advertised as the Gateway to New England, the Merritt Parkway was the first limited access divided highway in Connecticut. It is one of the oldest scenic parkways in the United States.

Even though there are not a lot of places to tuck yourself away from the crowds, it’s still a great scenic adventure that will give you a great escape from the hustle and bustle of the city.

14. Historic National Road – Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio

The Historic National Road is a bit of a journey back in time through the Heartland of America. While you can choose the modern route on Interstate 70, why not break the monotony of the freeway? Much like Route 66, you can still drive the original Historic National Road, US-40, today.

The Historic National Road stretches from St. Louis nearly all the way to Pittsburgh. You’ll get plenty of photo ops as you pass through forests, plains, farmland, small towns, big cities, and much more.

15. Green Mountains Scenic Tour – Vermont and New Hampshire

There’s something special about the tranquility and quaintness of northern New England. That’s especially true in Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom. Start at the Canadian Border in Derby Line, Vermont and wind your way south along US-5. You’ll pass through the heart of northern New England’s rich history and culture.

You’ll have a choice when you get to St. Johnsbury, Vermont. Continue south along US-5 to take in the scenery right along the Vermont side of the Connecticut River. Alternatively, get on Interstate 93, hop across the river, and explore New Hampshire’s beautiful White Mountains and national forests. Rest assured that regardless of which option you choose, you’ll return home feeling relaxed and refreshed.

Note: While the US-Canada border is currently closed, I highly recommend that you go check out the national parks near Magog and Sherbrooke, Québec once the COVID crisis ends.

Conclusion

During the COVID crisis, it’s more important than ever to take care of your mental health. Getting out in the sunshine and fresh air to take in beautiful scenery is proven to be one of the best ways not only to boost your mental health, but make yourself feel good overall. Recharge your batteries and refresh your soul. Take proper COVID precautions, and you should have a fun and safe adventure.

Top Photo: A Sunny Winter Day at Woodneck Beach
Falmouth, Massachusetts – January, 2015

The post 15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Eastern United States appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Panicking only leads to making poor decisions, which in the context of storm chasing, can lead to injury and even death. You can read about my hairiest storm chasing moments, such as the time I got caught in five and a half inch diameter hail and the time a cluster of three tornadic supercells tried to merge right on top of me and cut off my only route home. Had panic set in, the outcome may have been different. My point here is that the same concept applies with the coronavirus pandemic. No matter how good or how bad things look, the best time to panic is never.

It’s Like Having the Check Engine Light Come On in Your Car

Earlier this week, the Arizona Republic used a very apt metaphor do describe the current situation: it’s like having the check engine light come on in your car. It’s telling you something is wrong and should be investigated as soon as possible, but is certainly not a reason to pull over right away and call a tow truck. Nor is it a reason to put a piece of black tape over the light.

Let’s have a look at 5 states that have made a lot of coronavirus headlines recently: Arizona, California, Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas. All of them except for California have been setting new daily case and hospitalization records left, right, and center over the past two to three weeks. We’ll look at the current and past data, as well as what to expect over the next month or so.

How Has the COVID-19 Model Performed?

Before we begin, I want to make one final point about the COVID-19 models. No matter what you are modeling, the accuracy of the predictions diminishes significantly the further out in time you go. For example, do you know how often models that are used to make our day-to-day weather forecasts are correct when they make predictions more than about 5 to 7 days out? Less than 10% of the time. You see the same phenomenon in the coronavirus models, just with a slightly different timeframe.

My coronavirus model is run twice per week and makes two predictions for 56 states and provinces in the US and Canada:

• Case counts 2 weeks from the date of the model run
• Case counts 1 month from the date of the model run

Have any guesses as to how it’s been performing since early May?

That’s a pretty stark difference. The incorrect predictions are often pretty close, but a miss is still a miss. Also, the model has underestimated over 99% of the incorrect predictions it has made since early May. In other words, when the model was wrong, the actual case count was higher than what the model predicted, which is to be expected during a COVID-19 spike. Please keep this in mind when viewing model projections in this post. You can view the full details of how the model is performing on my COVID-19 Dashboard.

All plots and maps below contain data through Thursday, 18 June, 2020.

General Overview

Before we dive into each individual state, let’s look at a general overview of how the five states stack up against each other. Click on any plot or map to enlarge it.

First, a map showing the change in new cases over the past 14 days:

And now, the time series plots. The new daily cases are a 7-day moving average.

Arizona

Arizona continues to be one of my biggest concerns, for reasons beyond just the fact that I live there. You can pretty easily trace the spike in case back to the state’s Stay-at-Home Order expiring on May 15th. I’ll let you decide for yourself whether or not the state opened too early.

Both hospital bed use and percent of positive PCR tests (the tests that say you currently have the virus) have been setting record highs routinely over the past week and half or so. Take a look at these numbers, direct from the Arizona Department of Health Services website.

The hospitalization statistics and percentage of positive of PCR tests are they key metrics to watch not just in Arizona, but in all of the states we’re looking at today.

Now, while those numbers look grim, there are a few glimmers of hope. First, look at this chart of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day. Full disclosure, though, I have heard numerous unconfirmed reports that this chart is missing data for the past week or so, and especially for the past few days.

However, I do have reason to believe that this chart is at least partially true. Look at the charts above showing the hospital beds and ICU beds in use. While they’re certainly not leveling off, the rate of increase in bed use is slowly starting to slow down. A couple days ago, Governor Doug Ducey also gave mayors the power to require face masks in public (many cities in Arizona and Maricopa County now require masks), which will also help slow the spread of the virus and dampen the spike.

Will Arizona Become the New Epicenter?

So, what should we expect going forward? Let’s look into the crystal ball and see what the model says. Don’t forget that while I ran the model out to the first of September, the accuracy of its forecasts drops significantly after the 4th of July.

My personal prediction is that while there is potential for Arizona to become the new epicenter, I think the chances of that actually happening are pretty low. I also think with face mask mandates going into effect, the chances of having to go back into a statewide lockdown or stay at home situation are low. However, should hospitals get overwhelmed, all bets are off.

California

California is an interesting beast to tame on the COVID front, mainly due to its large size and its large population. At first glance, the chart of new cases doesn’t really show anything that jumps off the page at you. Instead, it just shows a steady increase in daily new cases over time.

What’s happening in California right now is actually a microcosm of what’s happening in the United States right now. Different parts of the state are peaking at different times as the epicenter moves around the state. Back in March and April, the San Francisco Bay Area bore the brunt of the COVID outbreak, while the epicenter has now shifted to southern California, primarily in the greater Los Angeles area. Here are the latest county-by-county data from this morning.

One very interesting observation: Los Angeles County currently has 47% of the California’s entire cases.

What is the model saying?

With the exception of LA County, I’m not too worried about California as whole right now. The spike you keep hearing about on the news is primarily contained to LA County and the surrounding areas, with smaller outbreaks happening in places like Fresno and the San Juaquin valley.

That being said, LA County is the most populated county in the US, so it must continue to be closely watched, especially if hospitals continue to be stretched. The whole Los Angeles area needs to we closely monitored. Governor Gavin Newsom just required masks to be worn in public statewide, but how much of an effect that has remains to be seen because many of California’s cities, including LA and many of its suburbs, already had local ordinances requiring them.

Looking into the crystal ball, I would expect the state’s steady increase to continue as the epicenter moves around the state, which will effectively cancel out the decrease in cases in other parts of the state. The model shows cases starting to level out once we get into July, but we’ll have to wait and see what happens. It’s shown that before for California and was wrong.

Florida

Oh, Florida. What are we going to do with you? You seem hell-bent on just putting the piece of black tape over the check engine light and continuing on your merry way. It’s been all over the news that Florida could be the next epicenter of COVID-19. However, note that all the reports and news headlines use the word “could”, not “will”. You can still avoid becoming the next epicenter.

According to the State of Florida’s own COVID-19 dashboard, only 1 of its 68 counties meet the criteria to enter the next phase of reopening. The one county that does meet those requirements is Liberty County, which sits in a rural part of the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee.

The state’s dashboard also gives each county a letter grade for how well they are social distancing. Only 4 out of 68 counties graded higher than a C-, and all 4 of those counties got a C. If you’re looking to slow the transmission rate down, that’s where I would start. For a state that has openly admitted to doctoring its data, these numbers are pretty pathetic.

Not surprisingly, cases are exploding in cities across the state.

What’s going on in Florida hospitals?

The state’s dashboard doesn’t have a whole lot of useful information about hospitalizations, but it shows that there are 1,395 available ICU beds throughout the state. I have no idea what percentage of total ICU beds that is.

Now, there is a glimmer of hope that does come with a big “but”. The number of daily new deaths in Florida is actually going down right now…

…BUT, if you look closely at the new cases plot, you will notice that the spike in cases started at Day 80, which was 16 days ago (today is Day 96). Unfortunately, when you have an increase in cases, the increase in deaths usually lags the increase in cases by two to four weeks, which means that it’s likely coming and just hasn’t gotten here yet.

If we look into the crystal ball, here is the model’s best prediction of what’s to come. Please take note that if the state and its residents continue to do nothing about the outbreak, there will be a significant COVID-19 spike with many more cases than what the model is forecasting.

Remember, Florida, it’s not too late to do something about this. Be smart, use common sense, and don’t become the next Florida Man.

Oklahoma

This is another interesting case. Oklahoma’s numbers throughout the pandemic have been lower than the rest of the country, likely due to the lack of major population centers. However, I get the feeling that if the President wasn’t having a campaign rally in Tulsa tomorrow, there would likely be very little, if any, mention of Oklahoma’s coronavirus case numbers on the national news.

Yes, it’s true that new cases have ticked up and are at record highs, and I’m not trying to downplay this, but even these record numbers of new cases are an order of magnitude less what Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas are all seeing. Case counts are currently low enough that there is very little threat to the health care system being overwhelmed.

If we break things down by county, you will find that most of the state’s cases are clustered around the two major population centers: Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

An Interesting Twist that Could Seed COVID-19 Spread

Now, tomorrow’s presidential campaign rally in Tulsa is where things start to get tricky. Tulsa County currently has the highest case count in the state (2,070 confirmed cases), which account for just under one out of every four cases in the state.

The combination of the spike in COVID-19 cases with a large indoor gathering of people coming from all over the country has the potential to be a super-spreader event and seed outbreaks in other parts of the country, but it is not going to turn Oklahoma in to a coronavirus epicenter. It’s not a sure thing that it will be a super-spreader event, either, but it certainly has the potential to be. Attendees taking proper precautions is critical to keeping the super-spreader risk as low as possible.

A model that CNN ran showed that the rally could cause up to 1,000 new cases. That alone may not sound like very much, but once people go back to the various corners of the country from where they came and spreading it to friends, family, etc., that 1,000 cases can turn into a very big number very quickly. Keep that in mind whenever you’re out in public.

So what’s in store for Oklahoma? Here’s the model run, but keep in mind that it does not account for any effects of the presidential rally in Tulsa tomorrow night. If this forecast verifies, there should not be any issues with overwhelming the health care system. Residents should take the spike in COVID-19 cases seriously and be smart about taking precautions when out in public.

Texas

The Lone Star State seemed like they were trying really hard to put the black tape over the check engine light, but finally realized that doing so was a bad idea. This week, Governor Greg Abbott gave mayors the power to require masks in public. Like Arizona, many cities in Texas now require them, which I expect will slow the spike in COVID-19 cases.

While California was a microcosm of the United States, with its epicenter moving around the state, Texas is not seeing that same phenomenon. Most of Texas’ major population centers are seeing the same uptick in cases all at once.

The one big exception to that rule is Amarillo, which saw a major outbreak at a meat processing plant back in May. The city put restrictions into place to curb that outbreak that were much more severe than the rest of the state, and it shows. The COVID-19 spike the rest of the state is experiencing is largely absent from Potter County data.

Hospital Statistics in Texas

Hospitalizations are definitely trending up in Texas, and hospitals are currently 77% full, compared to 84% full in Arizona. The hospitalization data should be watched closely over the next month to six weeks. Hopefully the mask mandates will be able to keep the hospitals from having to activate their emergency or surge plans.

The good news is that if the model prediction verifies, Texas should have a pretty good chance at preventing its healthcare system from being overwhelmed, especially once the mask mandates go into effect. The big question will be when will the daily new cases start to turn the corner on the new daily cases plot. The longer it takes, the bumpier of a ride it’s going to be.

Wrapping It All Up

Whew, that was a lot of data that we covered today. Yes, that was a lot of data we absorbed, and it certainly can look pretty bad in all five states. The good news is that even if you don’t live in any of these states, we can all do our part to slow the spike by not panicking, being smart about when and how we go out and interact in public, and using common sense. Don’t wait around for your mayor, county, or governor to issue mandates. Act now. The sooner we slow the spread and bend the curve down, the sooner we can get back to our normal lives.

Top Photo: Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona – January, 2019

The post COVID-19 Spikes in Arizona, Florida, Texas, and More: How Concerned Should We Be? appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

The US Federal Government laid out clear gating criteria each state should meet before moving to the next phase of their three-phase process reopening. My datasets and models do not track all of those gating criteria, so we will be looking at a couple of the most important guidelines:

• Documented downward trajectory of confirmed new cases over the past 14 days
• 3-Day Average of less than 5 to 7 new cases per million people
• The largest daily increase in new cases over the past 14 days must be no more than 5 to 7 new cases per million people

Look at the Actual Data to Gauge State Reopening Viability

So what exactly does a 14-day downward trajectory of confirmed new cases look like? Have a look at Montana, which is one of only about two or three states that’s even remotely close to meeting the White House’s gating criteria at the present time.

Now, what does the same plot look like for Georgia and other states that are starting to reopen businesses? Click on any image to enlarge it.

In the table below, all values are normalized per 1 million population.

One thing should jump out at you immediately: While three of the four states meet one of the gating criteria (general trend downward in new cases), Texas is the only state that’s anywhere remotely close to being able to meet the gating criteria. Even though spikes in the daily new case counts are a bit concerning, both Florida and Texas showing promising signs of trending downwards and if they keep it up, will hopefully be able to meet the gating criteria by late May or early June.

What are the Models Saying About State Reopening?

The University of Washington’s IHME model recently added a projection of when states can begin relaxing social distancing guidelines. These projections are estimated based on the gating criteria. I added the same projections to my model. Here are the earliest dates the latest runs are predicting states can begin to reopen.

So why are these dates so important? It’s quite simple actually. Using Georgia as an example, look at the projected cumulative case counts for what happens when you slightly relax social distancing restrictions before meeting the gating criteria (Georgia re-opened on April 27) vs waiting for the earliest suggested date (June 8) that the models indicate.

Interestingly, many models are already adjusting their case, hospitalization, and death counts up to account for states beginning to reopen.

The Verdict

So are states like Georgia, Texas, and others opening too early. Unfortunately, from just the small amount of data presented in this post, you can’t say for sure. I know, I know, it’s a cop-out, but there are so many additional factors that are not taken into account in this analysis, such as;

• Can the health care systems in these states handle the uptick in cases as things reopen?
• Even if businesses reopen, will people patronize them or are people still too concerned to go out?
• What about the economic destruction the virus is causing?

Here’s my two cents. Governors are going to have to tread a fine line between balancing health care concerns against the economy. Strongly favoring one will cause great harm from the other. While just relaxing social distancing restrictions even the tiniest little bit will likely lead to at least a slight increase in case counts, the goal is to strategically and gradually reopen the economy in steps so that you can keep the virus under control at the same time.

If governors who are reopening their states now can begin and maintain an economic recovery while at the same time keeping COVID-19 case and death counts down, they have not opened too early. If they have to shut down their economies down again and re-issue social distancing restrictions due to a big spike in cases, well, that’s a different story.

Top Picture: Talimena Scenic Drive – Talihina, Oklahoma – November, 2013

The post A First Look at State Reopening Strategies appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I only ran the models out until early May because we need to focus on what’s going to happen in the next two to three weeks, not what’s going to be happening several months in the future. Additionally, model forecasts get less accurate the further into the future you go. This run assumes current social distancing restrictions remain in place through mid-May and does not account for any additional surges or waves of the virus that may occur later this spring, this summer, or this fall.

Don’t forget, you can always get more information about the model and view detailed case data on my COVID-19 Dashboard. Additionally, I will write up a separate post about the mathematics, equations, and methodologies used in my coronavirus model, which I’m hoping to get posted in the next day or two. Stay tuned for additional discussions about each hot zone as more data comes in.

Alberta

Arizona

British Columbia

California

Connecticut

Florida

Georgia

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

Oklahoma

Ontario

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Québec

Rhode Island

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

U.S. Virgin Islands

Washington (State)

After several requests, I updated this post on 16 April, 2020 to include additional states and provinces, bringing the total to 26 plots instead of 24.

Top Photo: Palo Duro Canyon State Park – Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post A Look at the Best-Fit COVID-19 Model Curves for 24 Key States and Provinces appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Overview of SIR Model Output

Each city has four plots. The top row is the “working” model output, with the model curve best fit to the actual data. The bottom row is an experimental model output showing the effect of social distancing. In the “working” model runs on the top row, there are 5 lines on each plot. The middle line is the R Naught value that was reverse-engineered by fitting the model output to the actual data, and there are two lines on each side of the best-fit line showing different R Naught values in steps of 0.2.

Note: The y-axis on some of the experimental social distancing plots showing the total case count (bottom right plot for each city) is mislabeled. It should read “Total Cases”, not “Number of Infected”.

Finally, don’t forget that the plots below assume the R Naught values and the amount of social distancing remains constant throughout the entire time series. In reality, additional social distancing restrictions will dampen the curve and shift it to the right, while removing social distancing restrictions will cause the curve to accelerate and shift to the left.

Confidence in SIR Model Predictions

My confidence level in the “working”/top row model outputs is as follows:

• Predicting the apex of the outbreak: medium-high to high. The curves should at least be “in the ballpark.”
• Predicting the total number of cases: low to very low. With how fast things are changing right now and how fast new data is coming in, we just don’t know at this point. My gut feeling is that the case count projections in these model runs are likely high overall, but from a public health perspective, I would much rather have the model overestimate case counts than underestimate them.

Plots are in alphabetical order by city, with a table of additional cities at the bottom. Click on any plot to view it full size.

Boston, Massachusetts

Chicago, Illinois

Detroit, Michigan

Los Angeles, California

Montréal, Québec

New Orleans, Louisiana

New York, New York

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Ottawa, Ontario

Portland, Oregon

Phoenix, Arizona

San Francisco, California

Tampa, Florida

Toronto, Ontario

SIR Model Outputs for Additional Cities

Please note that this table contains outputs of just this single model run and does not necessarily reflect what my actual predictions are. I will be putting this table on my COVID-19 Pandemic Tracker later this week and regularly updating it there.

Data points I’m skeptical of in this output (with some comments):

• Chicago, IL: Case count is likely overestimated. I’m not sure why, but the most likely reason is good social distancing.
• Los Angeles, CA: Case count is likely overestimated due to California being better at social distancing than what was input into the model
• Seattle, WA: Peak date is incorrect due to the State of Washington’s 100th case occurring before John’s Hopkins began breaking down data by state.
• Washington, DC: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve
• Winnipeg, MB: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve

The post Complete Revised SIR Model Forecasts (8 April): USA and Canada appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

You can say the same thing about the COVID-19 pandemic. We all have a job to do to beat this thing. Every single one of us. Please use common sense, stay informed, and heed the warnings, guidance, and orders from your local, state, and federal government. Just like Hurricane and Tornado Warnings, there is a reason they are issuing warnings right now. Let’s have a look at why.

A New Type of Model: The SIR Model

Last week, we took a look at modeling the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States using Gaussian functions. Gaussian functions are also known as bell curves. Not surprisingly, there are more accurate ways to model a pandemic like this than with bell curves. Today, we are going to look at different scenarios using the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Resistant) model. The SIR model is a simple model that uses a system of three differential equations to specifically model disease outbreaks.

The relationship between the equations is:

Getting into how to solve the differential equations is a discussion for another time. In English, the equations and variables describe:

• S(t) – The number of susceptible people (people who have not yet contracted the disease) over time
• I(t) – The number of infected people (people who are currently sick) over time
• R(t) – The number of resistant people (people who have either recovered or died) over time. The model assumes that recovered people cannot get sick a second time.
  • Note: In the model outputs below, I have broken R(t) down into recovered and dead.
• β – controls how often a susceptible-infected contact results in a new infection
• γ – The rate an infected person recovers and moves into the resistant phase

Introduction to R Naught

Now, you’re probably wondering where the “R naught” parameter comes in. R naught, denoted as R0, is the reproduction number. It is just a fancy way to say the average number of susceptible people to which an infected person spreads the disease. For example, if R naught is 3, it means that one infected person spreads the disease to an average of 3 other people over the course of their illness. We’ll define R naught as:

R0 = β / γ

Now, before we jump into the model, let’s have a look at the model inputs. Within the model, we need to define the population N. The population of the United States is about 330 million. We also need to define the average duration of infection, which according to the CDC is about 14 days. The initial conditions for each equation [S(t), I(t), and R(t)] were set so the numbers mirror the actual data of the outbreak in the United States so far.

The only input to the model is the R naught parameter. While we will be running the model for different scenarios, we’ll start with what the US Federal Government currently defines for R naught: R0 = 2.3. Keep in mind that these figures assume R0 is constant, while in the real world R0 is changing constantly.

A Few Short-Term SIR Model Predictions for the United States

First, a couple of short-term predictions from the SIR model, again assuming a constant R0.

Before we plot everything out over the course of the pandemic, I need to point out a few very important things:

• The plot (and the above plots) assumes R0 stays constant at 2.3. In the real world, R0 is constantly changing.
• Because R0 stays constant, it means that this scenario does not account for preventative measures, such as restrictions on large crowds, restaurant and bar closings, travel bans, and shelter-in-place orders.
• This is a worst-case scenario and the odds of this actually playing out are very slim.

Flattening the Curve

Flattening the curve. You hear it all over the news. What does it mean? If you leave the virus unchecked, it will grow exponentially and quickly overwhelm the hospital system when all of the sick patients show up at once. Instead, health authorities want to slow down the rate the disease is spreading and spread the sick patients out over time so hospitals can handle the volume of patients.

So how do we slow down the rate the disease is spreading? Simply lower the value of R naught. Okay, in the real world it’s quite a bit more complicated. Federal, state, and local governments across the country are putting measures in place to slow down the spread of the virus and reduce R naught, which may include:

• Bans on large gatherings
• Quarantines and Self-Isolation
• Closing of schools, restaurants, bars, museums, and other public places where people tend to gather
• Cancellations of Events
• Closing Borders and Travel Bans
• Shelter In Place Orders and Lockdowns

Still don’t believe me that flattening the curve works? Have a look at the following figure. I ran the SIR model several times with identical parameters, only varying the R naught values. Like the above examples, R naught remains constant for each run. These are just hypothetical scenarios and are not any kind of indication that anything like this will actually play out in the real world.

By reducing the R0 value from 2.6 down to 1.6, the number of infected people at the peak of the outbreak drops from 80 million down to about 25 million. For those of you that are mathematically challenged, that’s about 2/3, or 67% fewer infected people at the peak of the outbreak.

Modeling the Changing R Naught Values

The easiest way to model the changing R naught values is to use piecewise functions to solve the differential equations. That just means we will assign different values of R naught for different values of time (t in the differential equations at the top of this post). If you’ve ever done numerical analysis or numerical integration, you’ve probably come across piecewise functions at some point, but that’s a discussion for another day.

So how does this all translate to the real world? Consider a scenario that we’ve seen in a lot of countries so far in this pandemic. The virus spreads undetected within the community at the start of the outbreak. Then, federal, state, and local authorities put increasingly restrictive measures into place. Restrictions start with bans on large gatherings. They then escalate to closing down restaurants, bars, and other public places. Finally, officials order a mandatory shelter-in-place or lockdown.

To illustrate this visually, I modeled a hypothetical scenario where the virus starts with R0 = 2.3. It spreads undetected for about 45 days at the onset of the outbreak. The government orders restrictions, scaling down R Naught until the issuance of a shelter-in-place order. In this scenario, it takes about a month to go from issuing the first restriction to a full lockdown. In the real world, the restrictions are implemented much faster than that. For example, it took Italy 12 days to go from just a handful of cases to the entire country under lockdown. It took Spain 9 days to do the same.

Looking at the Real World

This is where it gets tricky. Because the United States is so big and diverse, let’s look at ten major cities instead. Different states, counties, and cities have enacted different bans to combat the virus, making it nearly impossible to accurately use this model at a national level. For example, the shelter-in-place that was just issued for the San Francisco Bay area is not going to affect what’s going on in Seattle, Chicago, or New York.

A Few Things to Keep in Mind

• These models consider the population of each metro area, which include the main city plus all of its suburbs.
• The R0 values on the plots are fixed for each run. In the real world, the R0 values will start high and then drop as restrictions are enacted.
• The high number of undetected or asymptomatic cases will help keep the R0 value of COVID-19 high.
• The “Peak” label in the legends refers to the number of infected people at the peak of the outbreak for that scenario.
• You want to focus on the number of infected people at the peak of each scenario. Do not worry about the exact dates of the peaks of the outbreaks.
  • As you look at those peak values, think of how you can help with social distancing to reduce R0.
• The current R0 value of the coronavirus in the United States is about 2.3, according to the federal government. That means that every infected person spreads the disease to an average of 2.3 other people. For comparison, the seasonal flu has an R0 value of 1.3.
• I don’t know what the hospital capacity is in each city, but for reference New York State (read: the whole state, not just NYC) has 54,000 hospital beds and 3,100 ICU beds.
• When the city of Wuhan, China enacted their total lockdown in January, the R0 value dropped from 2.35 to 1.05 in less than a week. You won’t see R0 drops this drastic in the United States. However, the goal to get R0 as low as possible remains the same.

SIR Model Outputs for Several US Cities

Conclusion

For this pandemic, I will say the same thing I say before just about every major weather disaster. Please heed your local, state, and federal government’s warnings. I can’t stress this enough. In a weather disaster, you’re only putting your own life at stake by being stupid. In a pandemic, you’re putting the lives of every one else who’s around you at stake as well.

I understand we are a society that rewards stupidity. If we all work together, there is still time to slow this thing down, but that window will slam shut in just a matter of a few days. All quarantining yourself from knowledge and common sense does is keep that critical R0 value high and put more lives at risk. I’ll leave you with one final plot of COVID-19 data comparing the US cases to Italy’s. This is actual data and is not generated by any models. Stay tuned for more updates.

The post America, Please Don’t Quarantine Yourself From Knowledge appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Northern Gulf Coast

One of the trickiest aspect of a winter storm forecast this far south is to figure out just exactly how the warm sea surface temperatures will affect the coastal temperatures and precipitation types. Water temperatures along the northern Gulf Coast are in the 50s, which is plenty warm enough to impact the precipitation type at the coast. Models are currently showing that the snow/freezing rain line will be well north of the Gulf Coast on Tuesday evening, situated roughly along a line from Lake Charles, LA to Hattiesburg, MS to Columbus, GA. With the timing of the precipitation, I would expect coastal areas to see primarily sleet and freezing rain, since the precipitation should end at the coast before the mid levels of the atmosphere get cold enough to change the precipitation over to snow.

The coastal locales that are most likely to see snow are the areas between New Orleans, LA and Pensacola, FL. Atmospheric profiles may get cold enough for a change over to snow to occur shortly before the precipitation ends, so any accumulations will be minimal, if they occur at all. Coastal snow could fall as far east as Panama City, FL. The window for snow at the coast appears to be between 9 PM CST Tuesday and 3 AM CST Wednesday.

Further inland, areas along and north of Interstate 10 are much more likely to see accumulating snow. Atmospheric profiles there will be cold enough for it to snow, and with a driving north wind, those areas will not be affected by thermal radiation coming off the warm waters of the Gulf. Models are currently show a 1 to 3 inch swath of snow accumulations falling between Slidell, LA and Pensacola, FL. That swath is surrounded by an area of up to 1 inch accumulations between Baton Rouge, LA and Fort Walton Beach, FL, extending up into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Snow could fall as far north as a line from Houston, TX to Jackson, MS to Birmingham, AL. Temperatures will quickly warm later in the week, so any snow and ice accumulations will not last very long.

Georgia and The Carolinas

The North and South Carolina coasts appear to be on tap to absorb the brunt of this storm. Atmospheric profiles along and north of a line from Savannah, GA to Panama City, FL should be cold enough for precipitation to fall as snow. The winter storm will have plenty of moisture available after tapping into the Gulf of Mexico moisture, but it will also have an ample supply of moisture available off the southeast coast, especially with the Gulf Stream so close by.

Soundings along the Carolina coasts are textbook winter weather soundings. There will likely be a warm layer around 4,000 feet over the South Carolina coast when the precipitation first starts falling, so it may start as sleet and freezing rain before changing over to snow. Over North Carolina, however, all layers will be below freezing from the outset, so it may start as a wintry mix before changing over to snow. Any sleet and freezing rain that falls will reduce snow totals, which could greatly affect snowfall totals in the Carolinas.

Models are currently showing that the coastal snow will fall between Savannah, GA and the southern tip of the Delmarva. Unlike the northern Gulf Coast, the duration of the precipitation will be much longer on the Carolina coast. Precipitation should really start cranking up around 7 or 8 AM EST on Tuesday and should last for about 24 hours. Models are showing impressive snowfall totals for the coastal areas, but I think they may be a little agressive. Some areas between Wilmington, NC and the Pamlico River could see up to a foot of snow, but I would expect to see most totals in the 4 to 8 inch range. Snowfall totals between 2 and 8 inches are possible between Charleston, SC and the North Carolina/Virginia border.

Further, inland, areas east of Interstate 95 between Richmond, VA and the South Carolina/Georgia border could see 2 to 6 inches, and 1 to 2 inch totals are possible across much of the remaining areas of North Carolina, South Carolina, and northeast Georgia. Just remember that there are a lot of variables in play for these complex forecasts, so the duration of any freezing rain and sleet that falls will have a significant impact on snowfall totals. This is one of those storms that could be a big snowstorm or a big ice storm, so stay tuned to your local news or weather bureau for the latest information.

The post Rare Winter Storm to Impact the Gulf Coast and Deep South appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Initial Setup

An unusually warm and humid air mass sat over the Florida peninsula, which actually sparked a preliminary round of severe weather the day before. The two main ingredients needed to produce thunderstorms (heat, moisture, and upward forcing) were plentiful. At the same time, an unusually cold air mass was moving in from the northwest. These conditions made the atmosphere very unstable (warm, moist air being forced into very cold air aloft). If you’re interested in how thunderstorms form, be sure to check out my post about the Anatomy and Life Cycle of Thunderstorms.

How Everything Came Together

While fronts of this nature are not uncommon in the early spring on the Florida peninsula, there were a few special parameters in place to trigger the tornado outbreak. There was a boundary (nearly all severe storms initiate along some sort of boundary) spanning the peninsula from Tampa to Melbourne that acted like a beam to focus and magnify nearly all of the severe weather over the greater Tampa Bay area. Coincidentally, the strongest shear was also located in this area as well. Coupled with a particularly strong front there was plenty of fuel for storms to feed off of. This fuel is called Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE, which is a measure of how much energy is available in the atmosphere to fuel the storms. Plenty of available fuel coupled with strong shear and a boundary in place made the immediate Tampa Bay area a powder keg for severe weather.

The Front Moves In

There was a pretty dynamic scenario over West-Central Florida as the front moved in. In the map below (from the SPC), the boundary over central Florida is indicated by the thick royal blue dashed line. Any sort of boundary, whether it be a front, a dryline, an outflow boundary, or anything else, will often provide that spark to trigger severe weather, and this one was no different, focusing the severe weather over the western part of the black hatched area across central Florida. The other main feature displayed on the map is wind shear, indicated by the blue barbs. These barbs are interpreted the same way as wind speed barbs, with the short and long lines depicting 5 and 10 knots, respectively, and the pennants (triangles) depicting 50 knots. If you can’t decipher the map, the strongest shear was supportive of tornadoes and was located directly over the Tampa Bay area, as was the main boundary. The orange/red contours represent available fuel (CAPE), and the largest amounts of CAPE were located just west of Tampa. This combination merited a Tornado Watch for most of the Florida Peninsula. The boundary acted like a conveyor belt, funneling all of the severe weather right through the Tampa Bay area and east across the peninsula.

As the cells embedded in the front passed through the area of large CAPE just offshore, they quickly strengthened. Then they went right into the strong shear over the Tampa Bay area, which caused them to begin to rapidly rotate while at their peak strength. One of the strongest cells came approached the coast around 11 AM with strengthening rotation after going through the strongest of the shear. A Tornado Warning was issued for Pinellas County.

Tornadoes Break Out

The main tornado came ashore at 11:05 AM at Indian Rocks Beach, packing EF-1 winds around 90 mph. The twister promptly demolished homes on the beach and continued east/northeast. It struck the St. Petersburg/Clearwater airport, collapsing a hangar and forcing the airport to close down for the rest of the day before lifting over Old Tampa Bay.

Under the right conditions, a tornadic supercell will behave like any living being and will begin to cycle, much like a person goes to sleep and wakes up every day. After a tornado has used up most of its available energy, it will lift, reorganize and recharge, and then touch down again. The combination of plenty of available energy (CAPE) and the layout of the terrain were quite supportive of cyclical supercells on March 31st. After tearing through the airport, this cell very quickly cycled and touched down again just west of Interstate 275. It flipped an 18-wheeler and ripped signs out of the ground as it crossed the interstate at the south end of the Howard Frankland Bridge.

It continued to cycle as it progressed east, cycling several more times. As it tracked right along the boundary sitting across the Florida Peninsula, it destroyed a neighborhood in South Tampa and hit the Lakeland Airport, leaving extensive damage in its wake. The strongest winds were estimated to be 105 mph (very strong EF-1). This one cyclical cell accounted for six of the nine tornadoes that day. As the day progressed, the discrete cells dissolved into a squall line (which is common on days like this), eliminating the tornado threat as the front pushed east. The storms did not run out of fuel (CAPE) until after they had crossed the peninsula.

The post A Simple Meteorological Synopsis of the 3/31/2011 West Florida Tornado Outbreak appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

January Starts Fast in Florida

2011 started very quickly on the west coast of Florida. A strong front moved into the Tampa area on January 17. The leading edge of the front encounter some favorable wind shear and did briefly become tornadic (conveniently while I was right underneath it. I observed numerous funnel clouds move across the mouth of Tampa Bay, but the system only produced one actual tornado near Myakka Head. I tried to document the funnel clouds, but heavy rain made it nearly impossible.

Huge success came very early in the year. An explosive front moved into Florida on January 25. The SPC had pegged the Tampa Bay area as ground zero for a few days. On the morning of the 25th, it did appear that the setup would be a bit more linear, but the instability ahead of the front was some of the strongest I’ve ever seen in Florida during the winter.

As instability peaked in the early afternoon, an area of favorable shear developed just offshore, making the area ripe for tornadoes. Everything began to rapidly rotate as the system came ashore, and as expected, did become tornadic. I set up in a spot where I had a good chance of seeing tornadoes, and also in a prime spot to get pasted by straight-line winds.

I ended up getting within a few miles of a couple of the tornadoes that day, but opted to focus my chase on documenting the violent straight-line winds. The decision paid off big time, as I documented straight line winds gusting close to 110 mph. 14 Tornado Warnings were issued for the Tampa/St. Pete metro area between 5:00 and 7:00 PM. The storm collapsed a gas station canopy and tore roofs off of buildings just northwest of downtown St. Petersburg. Official storm surveys from the National Weather Service put sustained straight-line winds around 90 mph.

West Florida Tornado Outbreak

On March 31st, 9 tornadoes broke out across West-Central Florida. The tornadoes left heavy damage in Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Polk Counties. The first Tornado Warnings went up around 8:30 AM for a tornado near Lutz. The twister barreled east before dissipating in Polk County. Warnings continued to go up non-stop throughout the morning.

Tornadic Squall Line Intercept on March 31, 2011

The main squall line came ashore around 11 AM, with a very definitive tornado on radar west of Indian Rocks Beach. A Tornado Warning was issued for Pinellas County. The twister plowed through Indian Rocks Beach around 11:15, tearing roofs off of houses. It continued east, collapsing a hangar at the St. Pete/Clearwater Airport, and flipped an 18-wheeler as it crossed Interstate 275 near the south end of the Howard Frankland Bridge before destroying the Progress Village neighborhood in South Tampa.

The main tornado ended up being rated a very strong EF-1, with winds topping out at 105 mph (winds of 110 mph would be an EF-2). The parent cell did cycle a few times, and produced three more tornadoes, including one that hit the Lakeland Airport, destroying numerous planes at the Sun ‘n’ Fun Air Show.

I thought about trying to get in front of the tornado as it crossed the bay, but opted against it for safety reasons. One of the most important safety rules of recreational storm chasing is to never put yourself directly in the path of a tornado, especially when you can’t see it and have no escape route, which was the case here. The Gandy Bridge was not the place to be trapped with a tornado bearing down on you. More tornadic activity was being reported further to the south, so I dropped down to the beach and tried my luck out there. I didn’t get the incredible shot of a tornado I was hoping for, but did get some pretty amazing footage of more violent winds as the system came ashore.

Quick Recap of the Summer Season in Florida

The summer season ended up being pretty quiet, but when I did manage to get out, the photos turned out amazing. I documented one very photogenic isolated severe thunderstorm in Hillsborough County on June 17th. I also got some incredible lightning pictures, one on July 2nd/3rd in St. Petersburg, and the other on August 8th here in Norman. I also successfully documented mammatus clouds over St. Petersburg on July 22nd. All photos from the summer can be seen under the “Photos” tab above.

Explosive Severe Thunderstorms Break Out Near Oklahoma City

Exploding Towers SE of Oklahoma City on October 22, 2011

One of the most spectacular storms I’ve ever documented occurred on October 22nd, as explosive severe storms broke out across the Oklahoma City metro area. The storms were not tornadic, but did pack gusty winds and dropped large hail just southwest of the metro. The storms were so spectacular because they occurred right at sunset, so the towers were all colored the deep blues, purples, and oranges normally associated with sunsets. It also was amazing how quickly these storms formed and went Severe Warned. It’s been really fun watching these storms, especially when they occur right in your own back yard.

Oklageddon: Earthquakes, Tornadoes, and Records, Oh My!

If there’s one word to describe the events that unfolded on November 7th in central and western Oklahoma it would definitely be “absurd.” The events, which have since been dubbed Oklageddon, shattered records and put the the cherry on top of the 2011 chase season. To get the full experience of Oklageddon, you need to back up a couple days to November 5th. Around 2 AM, a powerful 4.7 magnitude earthquake centered about 45 miles northeast of Oklahoma City shook the southern plains, leaving minor damage in a small radius around the epicenter. I thankfully slept through it. At the time, this was the second-strongest earthquake in state history, behind a 5.3 magnitude quake that hit El Reno in the 1950s. The 4.7 didn’t stay second strongest very long.

At 10:53 PM Central Time on November 5th, the first record went down hard. A 5.6 magnitude earthquake, centered very close to the first one, rocked Oklahoma. This quake easily became the strongest in state history. It was definitely unnerving for my first earthquake experience, and would have knocked me right on my keester had it not been for the wall right behind me to catch me. Feel free to read my blog post about the earthquakes for all the juicy details. Also, as a fun fact, this record-breaking quake would have been a lot closer to the old record if the 5.5 earthquake that occurred in the 1880s was included. Oklahoma, however, was still the Indian Territory then, so it doesn’t qualify to be included in the state records.

Daylight on the morning of November 6th revealed more extensive damage from the 5.6 quake, with significant damage being reported as nearby as Shawnee. Since we live in the heart of Tornado Alley, people are not exposed to earthquakes very often, so as more small tremors rumbled through the area on November 6th, more and more people were begging for tornadoes. As it turns out, that saying “Be Careful What You Wish For” couldn’t have been more true.

On November 7th, six tornadoes broke out across western and southwestern Oklahoma. The next record was shattered in the early afternoon as Oklahoma recorded its strongest ever November tornado, an EF-4, that occured near Tipton (don’t worry, these tornadoes did no damage other than topple a couple Mesonet towers). My chase began mid-afternoon with 2 Tornado-Warned Supercells barreling up the Oklahoma prairie towards Interstate 40. My initial target was the western cell, which was headed in the general direction of Weatherford. I pulled off I-40 in Hinton, OK between the two supercells to reassess the situation around 4 PM. I sat in Hinton for about 20 minutes pondering my next move before the western cell started to weaken, while the eastern cell began re-intensifying. The most direct route to that storm’s base involved a core punch (and this cell had a history of producing strong tornadoes), so I opted to take the safer long way around the storm and gambled I could get on the tornado before sundown.

I doubled back and dropped south on US-81 down the eastern flank of the storm and got on Highway 9 headed west towards Fort Cobb and the storm’s hook. I came into Caddo County shortly before the Tornado Warning was issued, and finally got under the base a few minutes after sunset. Losing light fast, I blasted north to get out in front of the base. You could definitely tell there was something under the base, but it was too dark to tell if it was the actual tornado or rain wrapping around the tornado. By then, it was way too dark to get any pictures, so I just watched it until it was practically dark at which point I realized it could be dangerous being potentially in the path of a multi-vortex wedge tornado I couldn’t see, so I turned around and began the drive back to Norman.

Not more than 2 minutes after I sat down for dinner when I got home, another 4.7 earthquake came rumbling through, polishing off an absolutely epic finale to the 2011 fall chasing season. In one weekend, we got the strongest earthquake in state history, the strongest November tornado in state history, and the 2 third-strongest earthquakes in state history. After going out with such a bang in 2011, you can only begin to wonder what 2012 will bring.

Happy Holidays Everyone!

The post 2011 Year in Review: The Year of the Tornado appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

My original plan was to head east on SR-62, just like the Duette chase last year, but quickly changed plans when I got to Parrish and the cell had progressed further north than I thought it was going to, so I headed north on US-301 instead to SR-674. From there, the cell was constantly changing speed, shape, size, and strength, so I did quite a lot of zig-zagging across eastern Hillsborough County to stay on the leading edge of the storm where I could best document it. At the end of the day, I had made all the right decisions, managed to stay ahead of the storm and out of the rain core, and got some great pictures to boot.

The post Summer Chase Season Finally Starts appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.