The US Federal Government laid out clear gating criteria each state should meet before moving to the next phase of their three-phase process reopening. My datasets and models do not track all of those gating criteria, so we will be looking at a couple of the most important guidelines:

• Documented downward trajectory of confirmed new cases over the past 14 days
• 3-Day Average of less than 5 to 7 new cases per million people
• The largest daily increase in new cases over the past 14 days must be no more than 5 to 7 new cases per million people

Look at the Actual Data to Gauge State Reopening Viability

So what exactly does a 14-day downward trajectory of confirmed new cases look like? Have a look at Montana, which is one of only about two or three states that’s even remotely close to meeting the White House’s gating criteria at the present time.

Now, what does the same plot look like for Georgia and other states that are starting to reopen businesses? Click on any image to enlarge it.

In the table below, all values are normalized per 1 million population.

One thing should jump out at you immediately: While three of the four states meet one of the gating criteria (general trend downward in new cases), Texas is the only state that’s anywhere remotely close to being able to meet the gating criteria. Even though spikes in the daily new case counts are a bit concerning, both Florida and Texas showing promising signs of trending downwards and if they keep it up, will hopefully be able to meet the gating criteria by late May or early June.

What are the Models Saying About State Reopening?

The University of Washington’s IHME model recently added a projection of when states can begin relaxing social distancing guidelines. These projections are estimated based on the gating criteria. I added the same projections to my model. Here are the earliest dates the latest runs are predicting states can begin to reopen.

So why are these dates so important? It’s quite simple actually. Using Georgia as an example, look at the projected cumulative case counts for what happens when you slightly relax social distancing restrictions before meeting the gating criteria (Georgia re-opened on April 27) vs waiting for the earliest suggested date (June 8) that the models indicate.

Interestingly, many models are already adjusting their case, hospitalization, and death counts up to account for states beginning to reopen.

The Verdict

So are states like Georgia, Texas, and others opening too early. Unfortunately, from just the small amount of data presented in this post, you can’t say for sure. I know, I know, it’s a cop-out, but there are so many additional factors that are not taken into account in this analysis, such as;

• Can the health care systems in these states handle the uptick in cases as things reopen?
• Even if businesses reopen, will people patronize them or are people still too concerned to go out?
• What about the economic destruction the virus is causing?

Here’s my two cents. Governors are going to have to tread a fine line between balancing health care concerns against the economy. Strongly favoring one will cause great harm from the other. While just relaxing social distancing restrictions even the tiniest little bit will likely lead to at least a slight increase in case counts, the goal is to strategically and gradually reopen the economy in steps so that you can keep the virus under control at the same time.

If governors who are reopening their states now can begin and maintain an economic recovery while at the same time keeping COVID-19 case and death counts down, they have not opened too early. If they have to shut down their economies down again and re-issue social distancing restrictions due to a big spike in cases, well, that’s a different story.

Top Picture: Talimena Scenic Drive – Talihina, Oklahoma – November, 2013

The post A First Look at State Reopening Strategies appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I only ran the models out until early May because we need to focus on what’s going to happen in the next two to three weeks, not what’s going to be happening several months in the future. Additionally, model forecasts get less accurate the further into the future you go. This run assumes current social distancing restrictions remain in place through mid-May and does not account for any additional surges or waves of the virus that may occur later this spring, this summer, or this fall.

Don’t forget, you can always get more information about the model and view detailed case data on my COVID-19 Dashboard. Additionally, I will write up a separate post about the mathematics, equations, and methodologies used in my coronavirus model, which I’m hoping to get posted in the next day or two. Stay tuned for additional discussions about each hot zone as more data comes in.

Alberta

Arizona

British Columbia

California

Connecticut

Florida

Georgia

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

Oklahoma

Ontario

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Québec

Rhode Island

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

U.S. Virgin Islands

Washington (State)

After several requests, I updated this post on 16 April, 2020 to include additional states and provinces, bringing the total to 26 plots instead of 24.

Top Photo: Palo Duro Canyon State Park – Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post A Look at the Best-Fit COVID-19 Model Curves for 24 Key States and Provinces appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Northern Gulf Coast

One of the trickiest aspect of a winter storm forecast this far south is to figure out just exactly how the warm sea surface temperatures will affect the coastal temperatures and precipitation types. Water temperatures along the northern Gulf Coast are in the 50s, which is plenty warm enough to impact the precipitation type at the coast. Models are currently showing that the snow/freezing rain line will be well north of the Gulf Coast on Tuesday evening, situated roughly along a line from Lake Charles, LA to Hattiesburg, MS to Columbus, GA. With the timing of the precipitation, I would expect coastal areas to see primarily sleet and freezing rain, since the precipitation should end at the coast before the mid levels of the atmosphere get cold enough to change the precipitation over to snow.

The coastal locales that are most likely to see snow are the areas between New Orleans, LA and Pensacola, FL. Atmospheric profiles may get cold enough for a change over to snow to occur shortly before the precipitation ends, so any accumulations will be minimal, if they occur at all. Coastal snow could fall as far east as Panama City, FL. The window for snow at the coast appears to be between 9 PM CST Tuesday and 3 AM CST Wednesday.

Further inland, areas along and north of Interstate 10 are much more likely to see accumulating snow. Atmospheric profiles there will be cold enough for it to snow, and with a driving north wind, those areas will not be affected by thermal radiation coming off the warm waters of the Gulf. Models are currently show a 1 to 3 inch swath of snow accumulations falling between Slidell, LA and Pensacola, FL. That swath is surrounded by an area of up to 1 inch accumulations between Baton Rouge, LA and Fort Walton Beach, FL, extending up into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Snow could fall as far north as a line from Houston, TX to Jackson, MS to Birmingham, AL. Temperatures will quickly warm later in the week, so any snow and ice accumulations will not last very long.

Georgia and The Carolinas

The North and South Carolina coasts appear to be on tap to absorb the brunt of this storm. Atmospheric profiles along and north of a line from Savannah, GA to Panama City, FL should be cold enough for precipitation to fall as snow. The winter storm will have plenty of moisture available after tapping into the Gulf of Mexico moisture, but it will also have an ample supply of moisture available off the southeast coast, especially with the Gulf Stream so close by.

Soundings along the Carolina coasts are textbook winter weather soundings. There will likely be a warm layer around 4,000 feet over the South Carolina coast when the precipitation first starts falling, so it may start as sleet and freezing rain before changing over to snow. Over North Carolina, however, all layers will be below freezing from the outset, so it may start as a wintry mix before changing over to snow. Any sleet and freezing rain that falls will reduce snow totals, which could greatly affect snowfall totals in the Carolinas.

Models are currently showing that the coastal snow will fall between Savannah, GA and the southern tip of the Delmarva. Unlike the northern Gulf Coast, the duration of the precipitation will be much longer on the Carolina coast. Precipitation should really start cranking up around 7 or 8 AM EST on Tuesday and should last for about 24 hours. Models are showing impressive snowfall totals for the coastal areas, but I think they may be a little agressive. Some areas between Wilmington, NC and the Pamlico River could see up to a foot of snow, but I would expect to see most totals in the 4 to 8 inch range. Snowfall totals between 2 and 8 inches are possible between Charleston, SC and the North Carolina/Virginia border.

Further, inland, areas east of Interstate 95 between Richmond, VA and the South Carolina/Georgia border could see 2 to 6 inches, and 1 to 2 inch totals are possible across much of the remaining areas of North Carolina, South Carolina, and northeast Georgia. Just remember that there are a lot of variables in play for these complex forecasts, so the duration of any freezing rain and sleet that falls will have a significant impact on snowfall totals. This is one of those storms that could be a big snowstorm or a big ice storm, so stay tuned to your local news or weather bureau for the latest information.

The post Rare Winter Storm to Impact the Gulf Coast and Deep South appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

About 800 miles to the south, Tropical Storm Fay, which had made landfall near Fort Myers, FL two days earlier, had just popped out into the Atlantic Ocean off of Daytona Beach, moving ever so slowly to the north and east.

With a massive high pressure system sitting over the Mid-Atlantic, Fay had no choice but to be pushed back to the west, right back over northeast Florida. Our plan was to pull up near Savannah, GA and wait for the storm to clear out.

Clouds increased as we meandered our way south through Virginia and North Carolina, and the sky was completely overcast by the time we crossed into South Carolina. As we passed the junction of Interstate 26 (the road to Charleston), the skies looked mighty ominous as we headed for the Georgia border.

We stopped and fueled in southern South Carolina ($3.41 a gallon!) and I took back over behind the wheel. In a matter of minutes after getting back onto I-95, the rain started. The rain came and went, in heavy bursts, all the way down to Savannah. We checked into a hotel right off of I-95 (Exit 94), got a quick bite to eat at the Cracker Barrel next door, and hunkered down for the night.

Despite the fact that my bed was right next to the rather noisy air conditioner, I was awakened around 1:15 AM by the weather. Fay’s outer bands were coming ashore….right in Savannah where we were.

I opened the blinds and looked out. It was raining so hard you could hardly see the parking lot below (we were on the second floor). The sound of the rain being blown against the glass was almost deafening.

I looked over at the line of palm trees both under the window and next to the hotel next to us. They were all dancing around like they were ready to fly away. The parking lot now looked like a lake. Water was just getting blown everywhere.

I flipped open my computer and took a look at the weather. The wind was blowing a steady 45 mph in the band, with gusts to 65 mph. While there was not much lightning, we were under a tornado watch, and the county just to our north was under a tornado warning.

They did have a couple of reported tornadoes to the north and west of the I-95/I-16 junction (we were south and east of it), but we saw little other than heavy wind and heavy rain.

Just as quickly as the band came, it left, leaving just a normal overcast night, with minimal winds. As the storm came through Friday, it was wild in the bands, but just a normal overcast, rainy day outside of them.

Throughout the day Friday, we got bands like this coming through all day. The first one was definitely the most powerful and intense. On Saturday, we finally got back on the road and were able to head into Florida. Many streets were still flooded and there were lakes by the side of both I-95 and I-4.

Back in St. Petersburg now, focus can shift back towards severe thunderstorms, but we must always be aware of what’s a-brewing down in the Caribbean.

The post A Wet Wild Night Intercepting Tropical Storm Fay appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.