Lessons From My Road Trip to Oregon Last Summer

This trip is actually not my first foray out of Arizona during the COVID-19 pandemic. Last summer, I drove to Oregon to get a reprieve from Arizona’s summer COVID-19 spike and its relentless summer heat. In 2020, we had over 50 days of high temperatures above 110°F (44°C), which shattered the old record of 33. The Oregon trip was eye-popping, making me realize the complete callousness and carelessness of Arizona’s attitude toward the pandemic.

What a Difference Crossing the State Line Makes

On the Oregon road trip, my first gas stop was in Kingman, Arizona. I almost always stop in Kingman on trips that take me to California and Nevada. Kingman has always been safe and welcoming, and I have never once felt any hint of sketchiness or being unsafe.

I followed the same rules on the Oregon trip as I did this road trip. As a result, I wore N-95 masks every gas stop because I did not want to bring COVID-19 to Oregon with me. As I gassed up in Kingman, I noticed that a crowd had started to gather around me. They did not look happy, either. By the time I finished pumping the gas, the crowd was circling me much in the same way a group of lions closes in on a wounded gazelle. Thankfully, I left without incident.

Who Knew What to Expect Crossing into Nevada

Fast forward a few hours. I’m north of Las Vegas, and it’s time for my second gas stop. As I pulled into the gas station, every pump had a handwritten sign on it. That sign said in both English and Spanish, “No Mask, No Service”. I thought okay, feeling much less sketched out now.

Shortly after I started fueling, a car pulled into the other side of the pump. I was cautiously curious to see what would happen, since I had received death threats over masks in similar situations in Arizona. A middle-aged couple got out of the car, and they were both masked. This was the exact moment it started setting in just how completely batshit crazy Arizona was.

The lady in the other car started pumping gas, and the man started walking towards the convenience store. I noticed that he turned around after he got about half way to the convenience store. As he approached the car, he said “Honey, can you hand me my mask? I can’t go in without it.” That completely blew my mind. I was no more than 50 or 60 miles (80 or 100 km) from the Arizona border. What alternate universe have I ported into?

Oregon Took COVID-19 Seriously, Too

Even in very rural areas, both Oregon and Nevada took things seriously. Everyone wore masks in public, and you could see COVID-19 precautions in place everywhere. People kept their distance and largely stayed out of indoor public places. I felt things were much more controlled in Oregon and Nevada, and felt safer as a result.

All right, back to the present day.

Arizona

Things on this road trip were going to be different than the Oregon trip. So much has changed in just the six months since I drove to Oregon. Most notably, we now have several highly-effective vaccines available, as well as new antiviral treatments.

You don’t have to be on the freeway for long to realize how the pandemic has halted recreational travel. Unlike my summer road trip, my route this trip largely confined me to the Interstate system, whereas I only spent about 45 minutes of the 22-hour drive to Oregon on the Interstate.

You’ll quickly notice that once you’re out of the city, traffic on the freeway is almost exclusively semi trucks and big rigs. This is especially prevalent once you get on a major cross-country artery such as Interstate 40. It’s wintertime, and the pandemic is keeping everybody at home.

Even Mother Nature came through to help get the trip off to a good start. She treated us to spectacular morning driving conditions east of Flagstaff.

New Mexico

Entering New Mexico, I expected a very similar experience to the one I had in Nevada last summer. New Mexico did not disappoint. Right at the state line, they greet you with several signs.

• New Mexicans take COVID-19 seriously
• Masks are required statewide
• People arriving from out of state must quarantine
• If you break the rules, they will fine you.

I suspect that the reason New Mexico keeps reminding you of the rules is that if you exclude the international border, it’s surrounded on two of its remaining three sides by states that routinely flout COVID-19 restrictions and mock the pandemic. Additionally, both east-west arteries through New Mexico – Interstate 40 and Interstate 10 – directly connect those neighboring states that have made a mockery of the pandemic.

Even once you get away from the state line, you will be constantly reminded of the ongoing pandemic. Electronic signs in front of businesses instructed people to mask up, keep your distance, and stay safe. Interestingly, I also felt a sense of optimism in the air as businesses looked forward to adding capacity as COVID-19 cases continue to decline.

Ironically, the only time I really felt sketchy on the entire cross-country road trip occurred in one of the states I expected to feel the safest. The town of Tucumcari sits right on Interstate 40 about 30 miles west of the Texas state line. As I pulled into a gas station in town, I noticed that all of the vehicles there had Texas license plates. It was basically a repeat of what happened in Kingman last summer. It’s unnerving as hell having the angry crowd gathering around you, but once again, I was very grateful to get in and out without incident.

A Sneak Preview: An Icy Reception from the North Pole in Santa Rosa

As I passed through Santa Rosa, New Mexico, I punched through the strongest Polar Vortex to hit the US in recent memory. It brought some of the most wild weather I have ever seen on a road trip.

• Temperature dropped 45°F in 15 minutes
• Freezing fog leads into the twilight zone in the Texas Panhandle
• Wind chills dropped to -35°F (-37°C).
• The State of Oklahoma measured its coldest temperature ever.

Tune in next week for the full story, including pictures.

Texas

The Lone Star State continues to be in complete denial about the events of 2020. While I did not stop in Texas, you can see plenty from the highway as you pass through.

If you were dropped into the Texas panhandle without context, you would have no idea there was a once-in-a-century pandemic going on. The “Twilight Zone” effect from the freezing fog and the polar vortex only made this visit to Texas even weirder.

• Bars, restaurants, and stores in Amarillo were absolutely packed.
• There was not a mask, an effort to stay socially distanced, or any other attempts to contain COVID-19 to be found.
• You’ll see all kinds of political pro-Trump, anti-pandemic, and stolen election signs on the side of the highway.

The weather only continued to deteriorate as I got into Oklahoma.

Western Oklahoma

I always feel like I’m home when I cross the state line from Texas into Oklahoma. It was my route home after so many memorable storm chases, after all. While this road trip did feel a bit like storm chasing, tornadoes were the last thing on my mind as I headed back to my old stomping grounds. While I had prepared for cold weather, I was most certainly not ready for the bitter temperatures that welcomed me back to Oklahoma.

Shortly after dusk, I pulled off the freeway for one of my final gas stops of the day in Elk City, Oklahoma. When you exit onto the eastbound I-40 business loop, you have to travel for several miles through the open prairie before you reach Elk City proper. The gas station I had chosen was west of Elk City, in the open prairie.

Pulling in, I glanced up at the thermometer in the truck. The outside temperature had dropped to 14°F (-10°C). I thought to myself, no big deal, these temperatures are nothing new to me. It doesn’t take that long to pump a tank of gas. I put on my heavy coat, winter hat, and warm gloves. When I opened the door to step out, it completely took my breath away.

There’s a Reason the Chorus of the Musical Oklahoma! is so Famous

If you’ve ever driven across western Oklahoma, you’ll know that it is flat and open. When the wind blows, there is nothing to knock it down. No trees, no hills, no barriers. Nothing. In fact, the terrain slopes ever so slightly downhill as you go from west to east. When the wind has a westerly component, gravity can actually help accelerate the wind as it comes down the prairie.

What I had failed to realize while I was driving was that the polar wind was whipping down the Oklahoma prairie at about 50 mph (80 km/h). While I was dressed appropriately for the cold, I was not dressed for that kind of wind. The conditions in Elk City that evening combined to yield a wind chill of -11°F (-24°C). To add insult to injury, I had parked so the filler nozzle was on the upwind side of the truck, so there was nowhere to hide from the wind.

This was the exact moment it hit me just how severe this Polar Vortex would be. As I clamored back into the truck to warm up, barely able to feel my face, fingers, and toes, I happened to glance down. Both the windshield cleaner and hand sanitizer the gas station had put out were frozen solid. Not slushy or syrupy. Solid.

By the time I got to my friend’s house in Norman, temperatures had dropped into the single digits and bottomed out around -5°F (-21°C) the next morning. And that was only the beginning.

Up Next

Tune in next time to hear the full details of my tango with the Polar Vortex. Temperatures were much more reminiscent of northern Alaska in February than the southern plains. We’ll enter the twilight zone in Texas. In Oklahoma, experience power outages as wind chills dropped to -35°F (-37°C) while getting buried under a foot of snow.

Then, in true Oklahoma fashion, less than a week later, we were walking around in t-shirts and shorts as temperatures soared to 75°F (24°C). See you next week.

Top Photo: The Morning Sun Illuminates Palo Duro Canyon
Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post COVID-19 Road Trip Journal: Wild Weather in the Wild West appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Grand Canyon snow photography is a much different beast to tame than traditional Grand Canyon landscapes. While the goals of both types of photography remain the same, photos that really pop in the snow are often not the same awe-inspiring ones taken during the summer.

Plan Out Your Trip Beforehand

Winter weather introduces new layers of complexity and uncertainty to any kind of trip planning. At 7,000 feet above sea level, weather conditions at the South Rim can change rapidly and unexpectedly in the wintertime. As a result, your plan can go sideways in a hurry. Have a Plan B and a Plan C in place in case you need to unexpectedly spend the night somewhere or get stranded somewhere you didn’t expect.

Best Snow Routes to the Grand Canyon

The safest route to the Grand Canyon in the snow is via State Route 64 from Williams. The entire route stays below 7,000 feet elevation and has enough traffic that if you break down, someone will find you pretty quickly.

If you’re coming from Flagstaff, US-180 looks like a shortcut, but it comes with a catch. You’ll reach elevations of nearly 9,000 feet on a road that’s deserted and desolate as it snakes through the Kaibab National Forest north of the Arizona Snow Bowl. If you break down or get stuck, you’ll largely be on your own. Cell service is spotty at best. I’ve driven US-180 in blizzard conditions, so trust me. Taking I-40 West to Williams and going up Highway 64 is much safer.

What Areas of Grand Canyon National Park Do You Plan to Photograph?

You’ll be greatly disappointed if you think you can freely move around the park like you can in the summer.

• The North Rim closes for the winter in October, so you’re relegated to the South Rim.
• Roads outside of Grand Canyon Village are often closed after heavy snow.

I’ve sounded like a broken record in the past when I’ve told you to stay away from Grand Canyon Village when taking photos. However, snow photography is the one exception to that rule.

In fact, you want to do the exact opposite. Center your plan for snow photography around Grand Canyon Village. In this guide, we will focus on the village itself and nearby lookouts you can hike if roads are closed.

Time Your Arrival as the Winter Storm Pulls Away

The most dramatic Grand Canyon snow photo opportunities occur when the clouds start to part as the winter storm pulls away. The shadows and snow create a stunning contrast as the sun shines through broken clouds.

To correctly pull it off, you will have to thread a bit of a needle. Arrive too early and the heavy snowfall will obscure your view of the canyon. It will also make driving extremely treacherous. Arrive too late and you’ll miss the most dramatic views.

Dress Appropriately

The weather, elevation, and high desert climate present a unique challenge. The best advice I can give you is dress in layers. You will see large swings in temperature as the sun goes in and out of the clouds.

Additionally, wear warm gloves that allow you to operate your camera without taking them off. Wear snow boots or waterproof hiking boots. You can get into serious trouble from hypothermia or frostbite very quickly if your feet get wet.

Let Your Camera Acclimate, Too

Cameras hate going through rapid extreme changes in temperature. If you take your camera straight from the warm car out into the winter elements, you risk the lens fogging up and condensation forming inside the camera body. There are two strategies to reduce the temperature gap and prevent lens fog.

1. Store your camera in a cooler part of the car, such as the trunk.
2. Tuck your camera under your jacket when you first step out in the cold to let it gradually cool down.

The Grand Canyon’s high desert climate helps reduce lens fog and condensation. If it does happen to you (it’s happened to me plenty), just be patient. The lenses will clear up once the equilibrium is reached between the temperature inside camera and the ambient outdoor temperature.

Expect Winter Driving Conditions and Road Closures

Winter driving in Arizona’s high country is not for the faint of heart. Expect rapidly changing conditions, occasional white-outs, and slow going. You don’t have to get much north of Phoenix to get into the snow and ice, either. The climb heading north out of Black Canyon City on Interstate 17 – only about 20 miles (30 km) from the northern fringes of Phoenix – is often where I first run into snow and ice.

Drive a 4×4 and Carry Tire Chains

The biggest mistake I see inexperienced drivers make in the snow is driving like they would on dry pavement. Unfortunately, this behavior leads to spin-outs, crashes, getting stuck, and winding up in the ditch. Even with four wheel drive, some people think they can drive normally.

Here’s the truth. Four wheel drive will help you get going from a stop and will give you some traction going around corners. Contrary to popular belief, it does absolutely nothing to help you stop. In fact, in certain instances, it can actually hinder your ability to stop safely.

Tire chains are the secret weapon to helping you stop and maintain traction in the snow. They’ll also help you get going and make it up hills if you don’t have four wheel drive. You can buy chains at most auto parts stores in the west. Buy tire chains with actual chain links on them. The ones that look like the cables you wire your television with do not give you much extra traction.

Before setting off, practice putting your chains on in your driveway. You don’t want to try and figure out how to chain up on the side of the freeway in white-out conditions. Arizona does not have workers at the chain up areas to install your chains for you the way California dows.

Finally, don’t drive faster than 25-30 mph (40-50 km/h) with chains on. Take it slow, stay in control, and you’ll have a great time at Grand Canyon.

Tip: If you’re coming from Phoenix, there is a chain-up area on Interstate 17 just north of the McGuireville Rest Area, which is near Mile Marker 300 in the Sedona area.

Expect Roads Leading to and Within Grand Canyon National Park to Be Closed

Encountering road closures is one of the main causes of frustration trying to get around in winter weather. Grand Canyon country is no exception. Always check road conditions before you set off, either on Google Maps or directly with the Arizona Department of Transportation or the National Park Service.

Roads That Almost Always Close During Heavy Snow

• Desert View Drive (SR-64) from Grand Canyon Village to the Desert View Watchtower and East Entrance Station
• Hermit Road from Grand Canyon Village to Hermit’s Rest
• State Route 89A through Oak Creek Canyon from Sedona to Flagstaff

Roads That Frequently Close During Heavy Snow

• Interstate 17 between Munds Park and Flagstaff
• US-180 between the Arizona Snow Bowl and Grand Canyon Junction/SR-64.

Roads That Generally Stay Open, But Will Close if Conditions are Bad Enough

• Interstate 40 between Ash Fork/SR-89 and Winona, which is east of Flagstaff
• State Route 64 between Williams and the main entrance to Grand Canyon National Park
• US-89 from Flagstaff to Page

Carry Winter Survival Gear

You’ll be driving through remote and desolate territory as you travel from Flagstaff or Williams to the Grand Canyon. If you break down, spin out, or get stuck, you want to ensure you can stay warm and safe until help arrives. Winter storms in Arizona’s high country can strike swiftly and fiercely. Things can go sideways on you in a hurry if you’re not prepared.

At the bare minimum, you should carry with you:

• Extra water
• Extra food. Snacks such as cereal, granola bars, and trail mix work great.
• A flashlight and extra batteries
• A blanket or sleeping bag
• A change of clothes
• An extra pair of shoes or boots
• A snow shovel
• An ice scraper and/or snow brush
• Jumper cables
• Keep your gas tank at least half full. If you get stranded, you can run the heat to stay warm.

It May Take Significantly Longer Than Normal to Get to Grand Canyon

You need to drive according to the conditions. I cannot stress this enough. If you’re driving though heavy snowfall or white out conditions, expect to be moving at a crawl, even on major freeways such as I-17 or I-40.

Want some proof? Here’s a true story. I took a snow adventure to the Grand Canyon in January, 2017. That day, the snow level dropped down to about 4,500 feet. Coming from Phoenix, I made the climb out of the Verde River Valley (about 3,000 feet) to the top of the plateau (about 6,500 feet) on Interstate 17.

As I crossed that magical 4,500 foot elevation threshold, things transitioned from normal overcast driving conditions to a white out blizzard in a matter of minutes. By the time I reached the top of the plateau, I-17 was completely snow packed and traffic slowed to about 15 mph (25 km/h). Keep in mind, the normal speed limit is 75 mph (120 km/h).

I couldn’t believe how many idiots I saw go flying by in the left lane trying to drive the normal speed limit. They were going way too fast for the conditions. Here’s the kicker. For every vehicle that went flying by, I saw them less than 5 minutes later spun out in the ditch waiting for a tow truck. It took me over six and a half hours that day to drive from Phoenix to the Grand Canyon. It was worth every one of those extra minutes to get there safely.

Use the Main Entrance to the South Rim at Tusayan

Desert View Drive always closes when there is any appreciative snow accumulation. As a result, the South Rim’s main entrance is usually the only entrance to Grand Canyon National Park that is open. The main entrance brings you to Grand Canyon Village, which has the Visitor’s Center, restaurants, hotels, and all the other comforts you need. You’ll likely be cut off from those comforts if you try to use any other entrance.

Note: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the National Park Service has permanently closed the East Entrance to the South Rim (SR-64 from Cameron, AZ) to protect the Navajo Nation. You must use the main entrance at Tusayan to enter the park.

Snow Photography is Different from Regular Landscape Photography

This is especially true at Grand Canyon.

Think of the “classic” Grand Canyon photo you may see hanging in a bookstore or coffee shop. What was the photographer trying to capture? The Grand Canyon’s massive size? The geology and breathtaking relief? Its brilliant colors? Its native culture? The Colorado River?

If you’re thinking “All of the Above”, let me welcome you to the challenges of Grand Canyon landscape photography. As spectacular as the canyon is, it is incredibly difficult to capture all of its elements in a single photo.

Thankfully, Grand Canyon snow photography is much simpler because you’re focusing on one thing. The snow is the main subject of your photo. As for the geology, the colors, and everything else, they’re what takes a good photo and makes it great. It’s just icing on the cake.

A Grand Canyon Snow Photography Strategy

Photographing snow at Grand Canyon requires a vastly different strategy than classic Grand Canyon landscape photography. Unless the snow level gets really low – I’m talking almost all the way down to the river low – forget about the “full canyon” photos you gravitate towards in the summertime.

Instead, you want to focus on capturing snow on the canyon walls. You can use either the outer walls of the canyon or the spires, temples, and buttes inside the canyon. I actually find the most dramatic photos are when you use a combination of both. You’ll get a distinct foreground and background that will provide pronounced depth to an already dramatic photo.

You also want to make sure your viewing angles are correct. There is an endless selection of lookouts along the South Rim for you to find the perfect photo op. If you’re not seeing anything looking left from one of the lookouts, look to the right. At Grand Canyon, what looks terrible in one direction is often spectacular looking the other direction.

Additionally, shadows inside the canyon add flare and depth to photos any time of year. Low sun angles in the winter maximize this effect. After mapping out your favorite lookouts, come back throughout the day. Changing sun angles drastically alter the scenery throughout the day. A terrible photo op at 10 or 11 AM may turn into one of the best photos you’ve ever taken at 4 PM.

Don’t Be Afraid to Use the Weather to Make Your Grand Canyon Snow Photos Dramatic

You are taking snow photos after all.

Weather is one of the easiest and most effective ways to make any landscape photo really “pop”. Just have a look at some of my storm chasing photos from Oklahoma or Kansas.

An exiting winter storm presents an incredible opportunity to add weather to your Grand Canyon snow photography. To take advantage of this opportunity, have a look at the weather radar and head to the part of the South Rim from where the storm is leaving. If it’s moving east, head to the east end of the South Rim. Go west if the storm is leaving the western part of the park.

Regardless of where you’ve set up to take pictures, the most common weather features you’ll see include:

• Snow or rain squalls moving across the canyon
• Dramatic lighting from the sun poking through broken clouds

Take Advantage of Low Winter Sun Angles to Capture Soft Light on the Brilliant Canyon Walls

If you look at Grand Canyon photos in coffee shops, art galleries, magazines, and advertisements, you’ll notice a common thread. Most of them were taken close to sunrise or sunset. That’s because the mid-day sun creates harsh contrasts inside the canyon, especially in the summer.

Luckily, the effect of harsh contrasts is minimized in the wintertime because the sun angle is at its lowest. Regardless of what the date on the calendar is, the best time of day for any Grand Canyon photography is the 60 to 90 minute window after sunrise or before sunset.

Keep the sun somewhat behind you and use the strategies we just discussed in those time windows. Your photos will be absolutely stunning.

Tip: At the South Rim, you’ll find the best photo ops looking west (left) in the morning and east (right) in the evening.

Don’t Get Frustrated if You Can’t See Inside the Canyon

You can still take great pictures.

All right, time for a quick meteorology lesson. Air parcels are constantly moving up and down through the atmosphere. Warm air near the ground rises. As it gains altitude, it starts cooling down.

Cold air cannot hold as much moisture as warm air. The air parcel eventually cools off enough where it cannot hold any more moisture. At that point, the moisture condenses out in the form of clouds. The height at which this occurs is called the Lifted Condensation Level, or LCL. If there’s enough upward force to keep the parcel moving upward, additional moisture that condenses out will fall as rain or snow.

In most synoptic (large) scale storms, the LCL is at most only a few hundred meters (1,000 to 2,000 feet) above the ground. Keep in mind that the South Rim sits about 7,000 feet (2,100 meters) above sea level. As the storm passes over the Grand Canyon, its width, steepness, and depth allow the LCL inside the canyon to fall well below the elevation of the rim. As a result, clouds and precipitation obscure your view of the canyon.

If you encounter an obstructed or obscured view of the canyon, don’t panic. Your efforts haven’t been for not. You can still take great pictures. Here are a few ideas.

• Take a “snow globe” or “winter wonderland” photo from the rim trail or the surrounding forest
• Take close-up photos of plants or animals
• Lean into the punch and let the obscured view add a touch of mystery to your Grand Canyon snow photos.

Don’t Get too Close to the Edge

Just because you see snow accumulations does not necessarily mean there’s actually solid ground underneath it. Snow has an uncanny ability to defy physics that way. Don’t join the infamous club of people who have fallen into the Grand Canyon.

• Keep bushes or trees between you and the edge. You know for sure that they’re attached to solid ground.
• Look for footprints in the snow. They are a good indicator that there is solid ground underneath the snow.
• Use a long stick or a hiking pole to prod the ground in front of you if you’re near the edge
• Stick to areas that have railings and other safety mechanisms in place

Hike the Rim Trail to Gain a Different Perspective

The Rim Trail runs 13 miles (21 km) along the South Rim from Hermit’s Rest to the South Kaibab Trailhead. Running right through the heart of Grand Canyon Village, the trail is easily accessible from the Visitor’s Center, the museums, and the lodges. Best of all, it’s paved, routinely plowed, and flat.

You don’t have to go far to get away from the crowds. Hiking for just 10 or 15 minutes east or west of Grand Canyon Village is often all it takes. I often go further than that. If Desert View Drive or Hermit Road is closed, the Rim Trail provides at least some access to lookout points beyond Grand Canyon Village.

Tip: Do not hike any trails with steep hills or switchbacks, such as Bright Angel or South Kaibab. They are very icy, slippery and treacherous after a winter storm.

Photo Opportunities that are Accessible by Car

If you prefer not to hike, no need to worry. There are plenty of lookout points you can drive to. In the immediate aftermath of the snowfall, road closures may initially restrict where you can go. However, both Desert View Drive and Hermit Road generally re-open within 24 to 48 hours after the storm ends.

Desert View Drive

• Yaki Point / South Kaibab Trailhead (also accessible via the Rim Trail)
• Moran Point
• Lipan Point
• Desert View Watchtower

Hermit Road

Hermit Road is open to passenger vehicles during the months of December, January, and February. Drive the full 7 miles (11 km) out to Hermit’s Rest. The lookouts along the way have some of the best views of Grand Canyon.

Grand Canyon Village

If roads or closed or you’re not feeling that adventurous, take advantage of the incredible snowy scenery within Grand Canyon Village.

• Mather Point (behind the Visitor’s Center)
• Bright Angel Trailhead and the Lodges on the Rim
• Yavapai Point and the Geology Museum

Don’t take photos through the glass from inside the Yavapai Geology Museum. You risk reflections, grit on the windows, and poor lighting appearing in your photos.

If You Don’t Want to Hike or Drive, Take the Shuttle

Grand Canyon National Park operates free shuttles so you can access lookout points and more throughout the South Rim. In addition to serving Grand Canyon Village, you can take the shuttle to Hermit’s Rest, the South Kaibab Trailhead, and Tusayan.

Shuttle service is pared down right now due to the COVID-19 pandemic. You can still use it to access lookout points within Grand Canyon Village and at the South Kaibab Trailhead. Shuttle service to Hermit’s Rest will resume in March.

For up to the minute information on shuttle schedules and routes, please visit the Grand Canyon National Park website.

Know Your Limits

Any time you enter an extreme environment, even the smallest of mishaps can turn into full-blown disasters. While Grand Canyon gets most of its notoriety from its scorching summer conditions, winter can be just as unforgiving.

Know the limits of not just yourself, but also your vehicle and your equipment. When in doubt, always remember my rule. If you don’t feel comfortable doing something, then don’t do it.

Drink Plenty of Water and Bring Snacks

While Arizona is best known for its sunshine and warm weather, winters at Grand Canyon are nothing to take for granted. The combination of the cold, the high desert, and the elevation can be deadly.

The threats from these winter conditions at Grand Canyon are surprisingly similar to the threats in Arizona’s low deserts in the summer. The only difference is that you risk hypothermia instead of heat exhaustion. Indeed, you won’t realize you’re dehydrating until it’s too late.

While you don’t need to drink as much water as you do to survive in the low desert summer, you should carry a water bottle and sip it throughout the day.

Additionally, you burn more calories at high elevation than you do at sea level. The cold further compounds that. Snacking throughout the day is the best way to keep your energy levels up. Just be careful if you’re eating lots salty snacks. You don’t want to dehydrate yourself anymore than you have to.

Conclusion

Seeing the Grand Canyon under a fresh blanket of snow is one of the most beautiful and spectacular sights you’ll ever see. You’ll capture photos that are second to none. However, snowstorms in Arizona’s high country are not to be taken lightly. Come prepared and stay within your limits, and you’re bound to have an experience you won’t soon forget.

Top Photo: The Sun Begins to Set over Grand Canyon After a Major Winter Storm
Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona – January, 2019

The post Grand Canyon: A Complete Guide to Stunning Winter Photography appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

El Pinacate: A Brief History

Before we set off, let’s back up about 32,000 years. That may sound like a long time, but it’s a drop in the bucket on the geologic timeline that spans billions of years.

At the time, what is now the northwestern part of the Mexican State of Sonora was an explosive hotbed of volcanic activity. Unlike traditional volcanoes, the activity at El Pinacate all occurred underground. This distinction lead to the unusual landscapes you see dotted across the reserve.

Underground, molten lava tries to force itself to the surface due to extreme pressures in the earth’s core. As the lava approaches the surface, it comes into contact with moisture in the sediments. That moisture instantly vaporizes when it comes into contact with the lava, creating enormous bubbles of pressure. When the earth’s surface can no longer hold in that pressure, a violent explosion occurs as the volcano erupts.

Following the violent explosion and eruption, one of two things happens.

• On shallow explosions close to the surface, lava will flow out, leaving hardened lava flows dotting the landscape.
• In deeper explosions, the underground cavity will collapse under the weight of the sediment above it, creating a maar crater.

It turns out that maar craters are a lot more common than you think. You can find them all over the western parts of Mexico, Canada, and the United States. The most well-known maar crater in North America is Oregon’s Crater Lake. To give you an idea of just how powerful these explosions are, consider this. Crater Lake is 6 miles (10 km) wide and 2,000 feet (600 m) deep.

Before You Set Off for El Pinacate

If you’re visiting El Pinacate from the United States, you need to have the necessary insurance and paperwork to legally drive your car in Mexico. These are very simple steps, but can land you in a world of trouble if you skip out on them.

Mexican Car Insurance

You must purchase a Mexican insurance policy for your vehicle. Both US and Canadian auto insurance policies are not valid in Mexico. If you’re caught in Mexico without insurance, your vehicle will be impounded.

Many American insurance companies sell Mexican Auto Insurance. You can buy insurance by the day, by the month, or by the year. The most recent time I drove into Mexico was in August, 2019. I paid a little over $20 for insurance from AAA for the one day I was there.

I recommend purchasing Mexican insurance online prior to your departure. If that’s not your style, you can stop at any of the several agencies along Highway 85 in southern Arizona. You can even pick it up at the border as you enter Mexico.

Permission for Rental Cars and Cars with Liens

If you have a rented or leased vehicle, or own a vehicle with a lien on it, listen up. Bringing a vehicle into Mexico without prior permission is in violation of just about every rental, lease, or loan contract. Thankfully, all you need is a written letter of permission from your rental company, lessor, or bank. Do note that many rental car companies in Arizona will not grant you permission to drive their rental cars into Mexico.

Check the language of your contract for what you need to bring the vehicle into Mexico. I own my vehicles outright and have never had to deal with this step. However, the consequences can be severe if you skip it. In some instances, people have been criminally prosecuted for stealing a vehicle they brought into Mexico without permission.

A Quick Word About the Hassle-Free Border Zone

Every country has some version of a hassle-free border zone. It means as long as you stay within a certain distance of the border, you don’t need to fill out the paperwork to temporarily import yourself or your vehicle. In Mexico, the hassle-free border zone extends 20 kilometers (about 12.5 miles) from the border.

Thankfully, the state governments of Sonora, Baja California, and Baja California Sur have extended the hassle-free zone to encourage tourism. If you’re going to a popular tourist location in those three states, you’ll still be in the hassle-free zone. Baja California and Baja California Sur have extended the hassle-free zone the entire length of the Baja peninsula.

Sonora uses Federal Highway 15 to define the hassle free zone. Highway 15 runs from Nogales, Sonora to Los Mochis, Sinaloa. If you’re east of Highway 15, the hassle-free zone remains at 20 km. West of highway 15, the hassle-free zone is extended from 20 km to 450 km (the Sinaloa state line). Both El Pinacate and Puerto Peñasco are well west of highway 15, so you remain comfortably within the hassle-free zone.

Bring Your Passport

While you don’t need a passport to enter Mexico, you will need it to re-enter the United States.

How Do I Get to the El Pinacate Biosphere Reserve?

From Phoenix, it’s dirt simple.

1. Take Interstate 10 West to Buckeye, Arizona.
2. Take Exit 112 onto Arizona State Route 85 South.
3. Follow Highway 85 South to the International Border. Cross the border at the Lukeville/Sonoyta Port of Entry.
4. Once you’re in Mexico, follow the signs for Puerto Peñasco. You’ll be on Mexican Federal Highway 8 as you leave Sonoyta.
5. The turnoff for El Pinacate is on the right at Kilometer 52 on Highway 8, about half way between Puerto Peñasco and the border.

What to Expect Entering Mexico

Crossing the border for the first time can be intimidating. Entering Mexico is surprisingly simple, and the Lukeville-Sonoyta border crossing is small, so you won’t feel overwhelmed.

As you exit the United States, you’ll drive through a covered tunnel. During popular travel times, there is sometimes a quick US Customs checkpoint in that tunnel. They are there just to ensure you’re not crossing the border with anything that’s illegal in Mexico. More often than not, they’re not there and you can just drive right through.

You’ll pass through a large gate with a big yellow stripe running across the road. That yellow stripe is the border.

If you’re bringing anything to sell into Mexico or anything over your personal exemption, you must declare it to Mexican Customs. Look for the signs for the declaration lane, which will say “Autodeclaración” or “Carril para Declarar”. For a day trip to El Pinacate, I recommend leaving anything you would need to declare at home. It’s more hassle than it’s worth.

If you’re not declaring anything, look for the “Nada que Declarar” (Nothing to Declare) lane. As you approach the customs agent, you’ll get either a red light or a green light. The lights are assigned at random.

If you get a green light, they’ll wave you right through and you can continue on your merry way. A red light means you’ll need to stop for a quick inspection. If it’s really quiet at the port of entry, you may be stopped for inspection regardless of what color the light is.

The inspections are quick and painless. Mexican customs agents are welcoming, friendly, and speak English. They will have a quick look through your car and send you on your way. The longest I’ve spent at one of those inspections was about 3 minutes.

Obey the Speed Limits in Sonoyta

Just a heads up. Speed limits in the border town of Sonoyta, Sonora are very strictly enforced. The speed limit is 40 km/h (25 mph) through most of the town, but it drops down to 20 km/h (12 mph) in one spot. If you’re going even the tiniest bit over the speed limit, they will pull you over. To avoid an expensive ticket, I recommend driving 5 km/h under the speed limit.

While the local police can set up speed traps anywhere, they are most often set up on the south edge of town near the “Welcome to Sonoyta” sign. On your return trip, this is also where the speed limit abruptly drops from 90 km/h (55 mph) to 40 km/h (25 mph). If you’re not paying attention, they’ll nail you every single time.

Register at El Pinacate’s Estación Biológica

Before you begin your adventure at El Pinacate, you need to register and pay the entry fee. The easiest place to do that is at the Estación Biológica. It’s a ranger station located at Kilometer 52 of Highway 8, which is the main highway from Sonoyta to Puerto Peñasco. There’s a big sign on the highway, so you shouldn’t miss it.

The process is a bit different than at National Parks in the US. You may be confused when you arrive to find a closed gate across the road.

To pay the fee, you have to go into the Estación Biológica, which is located just off camera to the right of the gate in the above picture. When you walk in you’ll be asked whether you prefer English or Spanish. They’ll go over popular places in the park with you and provide you with some tour guides. You’ll also pay the entry fee of 50 pesos (about $2.60) there. Once you’re all registered, they’ll open the gate and let you in.

The ranger will also ask you where in the park you plan to go. Please give them this information honestly. The reason they ask is so that if you get lost or stranded, they know where to find you.

El Pinacate experiences some of the harshest conditions in the Sonoran Desert. There’s a reason they call it the Sonoran Desert’s Death Valley. Summer temperatures routinely hit 115 to 120°F, and the park averages less than an inch of rain per year. If you get lost, you won’t survive for very long.

Explore Maar Craters on the Ruta Cráteres

The Ruta Cráteres (Craters Route) is the crowned jewel of the entire El Pinacate Biosphere Reserve. Starting and finishing at the Estactión Biológica, the 76 km (45 mi) loop brings you through an incredibly diverse display of cacti, desert plants, cinder cones, and craters.

In addition to the natural highlights, you’ll also find interpretive stations every few kilometers. Stop and learn about the park’s history, geology, ecosystem, and much more. Information is available in both English and Spanish.

As you leave the Estación Biológica, the desert sand quickly transitions from its classic beige color to black volcanic soil. Because the volcanic soil is so rich in nutrients, you’ll find a rich diversity of flora. You’ll see cholla, saguaro, and organ pipe cacti, ocotillo and creosote bushes, tumbleweeds, and much more.

Cráter El Elegante

Located at kilometer 27 of the Ruta Cráteres, El Elegante is the largest and most well-known crater in the El Pinacate Biosphere Reserve. From the parking area, it’s just a few steps to the edge of the crater. El Elegante is as close to a textbook maar crater as you can get. I hope you can appreciate it as you stand at its edge taking in the landscapes.

Along with El Elegante’s stunning photo opportunities, I encourage you to hike the short 1 km interpretive trail around the edge of the crater. You’ll learn a lot about El Elegante and gain better perspective. Additionally, the parking area at El Elegante offers some of the best views of the lunar landscapes in the entire park.

Cono El Tecolote

If you have a picnic lunch, just want a place to stretch your legs or have a rest, or further explore, head to El Tecolote. At about the half way point of the Ruta Cráteres, the campground at El Tecolote is a great spot to break up your drive.

In addition, El Tecolote has excellent hiking trails. Hike to the summit of Cono Mayo for incredible photo opportunities of lava flows and volcanic ash-covered fields. I have never actually been to El Tecolote, so I unfortunately do not have any photos of it.

Cráter Cerro Colorado

The Cerro Colorado Crater is the final crater on the Ruta Cráteres. Its reddish color and tuff formation material made of clay and volcanic ash distinguish it from the other maar craters in El Pinacate.

Like El Elegante, you can drive right up to the rim of Cerro Colorado. While there are no hiking trails around the rim, the drive up to the rim of the crater offers diverse photo ops and perspectives of the crater. It’s another spectacular spot at El Pinacate to have a picnic as well.

Please also note that it is prohibited to descend into any of the craters in the El Pinacate Biosphere Reserve.

Additional Activities on the Ruta Cráteres

If you want a little more adventure than just a scenic drive, the Ruta Cráteres offers plenty of outdoor activities.

• Hiking
• Mountain Biking
• Camping
• Bird Watching
• Guided Tours
• Much More

Explore Volcanic Flows and Sand Dunes at the Schuk Toak Visitors Center

No trip to the El Pinacate Biosphere Reserve is complete without a stop at the Schuk Toak Visitor’s Center. The Visitor’s Center is located at kilometer 72 on Highway 8, or about 20 km north of Puerto Peñasco. Like the Ruta Cráteres, the area surrounding the Visitor’s Center offers outdoor activities for everyone. The entry fee you paid at the Estación Biológica will get you into the Visitor’s Center as well.

Visit the Museum at the Visitor’s Center

Inside the Visitor’s Center, you’ll find a modern museum where you can learn about the fascinating history, geology, and biology of El Pinacate. The Visitor’s Center is the first self-sustaining public building in Latin America. It is 100% solar and wind powered and operates completely off the grid.

Did you know that millions of years ago, fish once inhabited what is now Sonora and Arizona?

Hike the Geology and Biology Nature Trails

There are two short nature trails located right behind the Visitor’s Center. On one trail, you’ll learn about El Pinacate’s explosive geological history. On the other trail, you’ll learn about the flora and fauna that make up this incredibly unique and diverse desert ecosystem. The trails are short with no elevation change, but are on the lava flows, so footing in some areas can be uneven. Be quiet and you’ll likely see several birds and reptiles. If you’re really lucky, you’ll see some of the mammals that inhabit the park.

Explore the Dunes of El Gran Desierto de Altar

Located 2 kilometers past the Visitor’s Center, the Gran Desierto de Altar is the largest active dune field in North America. Hike up to the top of the dunes and see the unusual and extremely rare star dunes. El Pinacate is one of just a small handful of places in the entire world where you can find star dunes.

Unfortunately, all of my visits to El Pinacate have been during the summer, when access to the dunes is closed. Exploring the dunes is very high on my bucket list right now, and I hope to be able to do so once the pandemic ends and international travel can resume.

What to Expect Re-Entering the United States

While not a simple as entering Mexico, re-entering the United States is still very straightforward. First, pull up to the primary checkpoint, remove your hat and sunglasses, and hand the US Customs officer the passports of everyone in the vehicle. If you have passengers in the back seat, I recommend opening the back window as well.

When talking to any customs officer, always be friendly, honest, and transparent. Customs officers are trained to spot deception, so if you’re trying to hide anything, they’ll know. The officer will ask you any or all of the following questions.

• Where are you coming from?
• What was the purpose of your trip to Mexico?
• Where are you going? If you’re not a US citizen, they will likely ask what the purpose of your trip to the United States is.
• What are you bringing back from Mexico? You must declare everything you bought in Mexico that you are bringing back into the US, no matter how small and insignificant it may seem.

At this point, one of two things will happen. In most cases, they will send you on your way. If not, you will be referred to secondary for additional inspection. You can be sent to secondary for any number of reasons. Most of the time, it’s just because you’ve been flagged for a random inspection. This is no more out-of-the-ordinary than random bag checks at the airport.

If you get sent to secondary, you will again be asked the questions above. Again, be honest and transparent. The secondary officer will double-check your passports, search your car, and send you on your way. The longest a secondary inspection has ever delayed me was about 10 minutes.

Finally, please note that you will also pass through two Border Patrol checkpoints on Arizona Highway 85 between Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument and Gila Bend. They are primarily looking for illegal immigrants and drugs. US Citizens do not need to show any documentation at these checkpoints.

Conclusion

The El Pinacate Biosphere Reserve is one of the most unique, diverse, and extreme ecosystems in the Sonoran Desert. It offers outdoor activities for all ages and hobbies. Indulge in one of the most underrated day trips from Phoenix and Tucson. Add some international flair and culture to your life. The world is your oyster. What are you waiting for?

Top Photo: Lunar Volcanic Landscape near El Pinacate’s El Elegante Crater
Los Norteños, Sonora, Mexico – July, 2017

The post How to Maximize One Day at Mexico’s El Pinacate Biosphere appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

The secret to standing out is to take photos from unique perspectives that other photographers don’t consider. Anyone can arrive at Grand Canyon Village, walk the short distance to the rim, and take pictures there. Instead, get off the beaten path at bit and away from crowds. People will notice your photos because they are unique and stand out from the millions of similar photos that other people have taken.

That’s exactly what we’re going to look at today. Here are seven of my favorite photography spots throughout Grand Canyon National Park. They’re not all easy to get to, but you’ll reap the payoff from the extra effort you put into the journey. These spots are for the most part COVID-friendly, too.

Please Stay Off the Navajo Nation During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The Navajo Nation has been hit extremely hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time this was published, the Navajo Nation is currently in a strict lockdown to slow the spread. For their safety as well as your own, please stay off of the Navajo Nation, which includes US-89 north of Flagstaff, at this time. The east entrance to Grand Canyon National Park near Cameron is closed indefinitely to help protect the Navajo people.

1. Desert View Watchtower

Located on State Route 64 just inside the east entrance, the Desert View Watchtower offers breathtaking views of both the canyon and the Colorado River. It’s much less crowded than the primary entrance at the west end of the park. In my opinion, it offers much better views, too.

While the COVID-19 pandemic has closed the Desert View Watchtower, stores, and facilities, the open-air viewpoints remain open. Look to the east for an incredible view of Marble Canyon and the Navajo Nation. You’ll also get one of the best views of the Colorado River available on the South Rim. In the summer, you’ll often see rafting trips on the river.

If that’s not enough, look back to the west. You’ll see a much more classic Grand Canyon landscape, but with another great view of the Colorado River.

Note: The east entrance to the park is closed due to COVID-19 lockdowns on the Navajo Nation. To reach the Desert View Watchtower, you must make the 80 km/50 mi round trip from Grand Canyon Village.

2. Lee’s Ferry

Lee’s Ferry sits in the shadows of the world-famous Navajo Bridge. It is one of the most underrated photography spots at the Grand Canyon. Despite being the launch site for all Colorado River rafting trips, the summer crowds that typically gather at the Navajo Bridge tend to pass by Lee’s Ferry. It’s plenty spacious enough for you to find a secluded, tucked away stretch of beach where you can be one with the river.

3. Little Colorado River Confluence

As breathtaking as Havasupai Falls are, so many people have photographed them over the past few years. The waters of the Little Colorado River near the confluence are just as brilliant a turquoise as Havasupai. However, they’re much harder to reach As a result, you’ll get much better mileage out of your photos.

Don’t get me wrong, the hike to Havasupai is no walk in the park. However, the only practical way to reach the Little Colorado River Confluence is via a multi-day boat trip down the Colorado River. The confluence is a popular stop to relax, refresh, and reflect on Grand Canyon rafting trips.

4. Ooh Aah Point

Do you have any guesses as to how Ooh Aah Point got its name? It’s the reaction from most people when they see the dramatic canyon views it offers. Ooh Aah Point is located about a mile down the South Kaibab Trail. You’ll know it when you see it.

A quick word of caution when hiking in the Grand Canyon. While a mile each way may not sound like much, there is a 1,000-foot (300 m) difference in elevation between Ooh Aah Point and the South Kaibab Trailhead.

In addition, the South Rim is at 7,200 feet (2,200 m) above sea level. If you’re not acclimatized to the elevation, you will likely feel quite winded on the return hike out of the canyon. Go slow, take plenty of breaks, stay hydrated, and you’ll make it out just fine.

5. Bright Angel Point (North Rim)

The Grand Canyon’s North Rim is far more rustic and less touristy than the South Rim. As a result, it’s much quieter and less crowded. Unlike the South Rim, you don’t have to get too far from the Visitor’s Center before you feel like you’re alone with nature.

Bright Angel Point is perfect spot for Grand Canyon photography if you’re hesitant about traveling into the backcountry. Located less than half a kilometer (1/4 mi) past the Visitors Center, Bright Angel Point offers 270-degree views of the canyon from atop a spectacular lookout.

From the North Rim, you can see the San Francisco Peaks near Flagstaff. For those of you who don’t know, the San Francisco Peaks are the highest point in Arizona. Humphrey’s Peak checks in at 12,633 feet (3,851 meters) above sea level. The San Francisco Peaks make for a dramatic background in photos taken from the North Rim. You can’t get that kind of background at the South Rim.

Note: The North Rim closes for the winter upon the first major snowfall of the season and reopens on 15 May. Please check the Grand Canyon National Park website for closure information at the North Rim.

6. Side Hikes on a Colorado River Rafting Trip

There is no better way to make your Grand Canyon photography stand out than to visit places that very few people have access to. The only way to get to these hikes is via a rafting trip down the Colorado River. You’ll see exclusive perspectives of the Colorado River, waterfalls, wildlife, rock formations, and much more.

My most popular photos of the Grand Canyon are all from the rafting trip I took with my family in 2015. They are also some of the most popular photos I’ve ever taken. Even five years after the fact, I still receive positive feedback about my photography from the Grand Canyon rafting trip.

7. The South Rim After a Snowstorm

As a former storm chaser, I can tell you firsthand that adding certain weather phenomena can set even the most “cliché” photos apart from the pack. Grand Canyon photography is no exception.

If you’ve never been to the Grand Canyon after a fresh snowfall, you’re missing out on one of the most beautiful sights you’ll ever see. You’ll have to deal with treacherous conditions both driving and walking around the park. However, remember that the more effort you put into your photography, the greater the payoff will be.

Finally, do you remember what I mentioned earlier? That you’ll face immense competition and headwinds if you stop at Grand Canyon Village and only take photos there. Want some proof that certain weather phenomena can neutralize that competition? The above photo of the fresh blanket of snow on the Grand Canyon was taken just east of the El Tovar Hotel, in the heart of Grand Canyon Village.

What’s Still On My Grand Canyon Photography Bucket List

One thing I really love about the Grand Canyon is that no matter how many corners of the park you think you’ve explored, there are always so many more places you haven’t. My bucket list for Grand Canyon photography is expansive (and still growing), so here are a few of the highlights.

• Point Sublime is a lookout point in the North Rim backcountry. It juts out several kilometers into the canyon, providing nearly 360-degree breathtaking views.
• Hermit’s Rest Trail. Much less used than either the Bright Angel or South Kaibab trails, the Hermit’s Rest Trail features unqiue views, basings, and springs.
• Toroweap Overlook. Set 3,000 feet above Lava Falls, the Toroweap Overlook provides dramatic views of the Colorado River and one of the Grand Canyon’s most iconic gorges. What’s the catch? To reach Toroweap, you’ll have to take on 130 km (80 mi) of brutal 4×4 dirt roads. And that’s only one-way.
• Plateau Point is at the end of a spur off of the Bright Angel Trail. It sits 400 meters (1,300 ft) above the Colorado River. You’ll get spectacular views of both the river and the canyon’s inner gorge.
• Diamond Creek Beach is one of the few spots you can drive down to the Colorado River. It’s located on the Hualapai Indian Reservation, so the scenery is not as dramatic as it is inside the National Park. It’s a great spot for a picnic lunch, though.

Conclusion

The Grand Canyon is one of the most photographed natural wonders in the world. Your strategy for photographing it will determine how successful you will be. If you settle for only taking photos from touristy spots, your photography will quickly be lost amongst millions of similar photos.

Alternatively, put in the effort to push further off the beaten path. With photos that stand out, the payoff will be tremendous once you start trying to get your Grand Canyon photography in front of eyeballs.

I hope you all have a happy and safe Thanksgiving.

Top Photo: Tranquil scenery on the Colorado River near Comanche Point (Mile 68)
Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona – June, 2015

The post 7 Lesser-Known Spots at Grand Canyon to Take Awe-Inspiring Photos appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

With all international travel and most domestic travel on hold, look closer to home for happiness. Interestingly, some of the photography adventures I have taken in years past check all of the boxes for Covid safety. What a perfect way to boost your mental health! Today, let’s have a look at fifteen destinations in the western United States to get outside and explore. In addition, you can treat your mental health away from the crowds and from the safety of your Covid bubble.

A Word of Caution About Adventuring During COVID

Just because we’re talking about fun adventures today does not mean it’s a green light to let loose. Stay close to home and stick to day trips. This is not the appropriate time to be pin-balling all over the country. Don’t invite all of your friends to come with you, either. Instead, stick to small groups of people you live with, who are already in your Covid bubble. Pack plenty of food, drinks, and sanitizer so you don’t need to stop anywhere.

Please obey all local Covid restrictions, ordinances, and mandates. I know it feels like so many of them have been politicized, but they are there for a reason. Many state and national parks have their own restrictions as well. You will likely be fined if you violate restrictions on state or federal land.

Finally, don’t forget to plan for any hazards you would normally encounter during non-COVID times. Many of these destinations can close unexpectedly due to snow and ice in the winter. Speaking of which, know the tire chain requirements for any states you’ll be traveling through. Carry chains with you and know how to chain up yourself if you’re expecting to be in snow country. If you have any doubts, it’s probably best to stay home.

Now, let’s kick those Covid blues and put your mental health on the fast track to happiness.

1. Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument – Arizona

The Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument sits on the US-Mexico border at the south end of Arizona’s Highway 85. It is the only place in the United States to see the rare organ pipe cactus. While the cactus itself is fairly common south of the border, even the mild winters in Arizona’s low deserts have proven to be too cold for it.

The national monument is also home to an incredible diversity of rare species of flora, fauna, and surprisingly, fish. The Quitobaquito Oasis is home to species of fish that cannot be found anywhere else in the world. The rarest of all is the Sonoyta pupfish. Named for the Mexican town that sits across the border from the monument, Quitobaquito is the only known place in the world that they inhabit.

Note: The access roads to Quitobaquito and Dos Lomitas Ranch are currently closed due to construction of new border fencing.

You’ll find the best photo ops along the Ajo Mountain drive. The 33 km (21 mi) guided tour starts across Highway 85 from the Visitors Center. Along the way, you’ll stop and see the best of what the Sonoran Desert has to offer. If you’re looking to get off the beaten path a little more, consider the North Puerto Blanco Drive. It starts from behind the Visitors Center, but beware that you’ll need a high clearance 4×4 to tackle it.

2. Pacific Coast Highway – Oregon and California

Is there any better feeling than the freedom of a drive up the coast? The fresh ocean air is bound to give anyone’s mental health a shot in the arm. In the age of Covid, keep your stops away from towns and population centers. Find a quiet pull-out at the top of a bluff, and enjoy that nice picnic lunch that you brought from home as you watch the world go by.

3. Burr Trail – Utah

The Burr Trail winds over 120 km (76 mi) through the guts of Utah’s breathtaking backcountry. Starting in the town of Boulder, you’ll pass through the Grand Staircase – Escalante National Monument, Capitol Reef National Park, and the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area.

Drive through beautiful canyons, across stunning mesas, and descend the infamous Burr Trail Switchbacks, which drop close to 1,000 feet elevation in just 1 mile. At a 13% grade on a narrow dirt track, the switchbacks satisfy the hunger of even the most adventurous. You’ll quickly see why it’s rated one of the most scenic drives in Utah and the ultimate exercise in social distancing.

4. Palo Duro Canyon – Texas

Known as the Grand Canyon’s Little Brother, Palo Duro Canyon is the second largest canyon in the United States. Meaning “strong wood” in Spanish, Palo Duro Canyon offers outdoor activities for everyone, including hiking, mountain biking, and horseback riding. The entrance to the state park is a short drive south of Amarillo on Interstate 27. And unlike the Grand Canyon, you can actually drive the bottom of Palo Duro Canyon in a normal passenger car.

You’ll get plenty of great photo opportunities from both the rim and the bottom of the canyon. I recommend arriving close to either sunrise or sunset in order to take advantage of soft, low light on the canyon’s walls. Snap some pictures from the lookouts near the Visitors’ Center before starting your descent into the canyon.

5. Great Salt Plains – Oklahoma

Take a journey back in time at Oklahoma’s Great Salt Plains. The salt pan is a remnant of prehistoric times, when a vast ocean covered what is now Oklahoma. In the summertime, you can venture out on the salt flats and dig for selenite crystals. The Great Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge is the only place in the world where you’ll find hourglass-shaped selenite crystals.

Fast-forward to today, and you’ll find a state park, a national wildlife refuge, and a large lake. The Great Salt Plains are a great spot to go hiking, swimming, and boating. However, my favorite activity is to take the quiet and tranquil scenic drive through the salt marshes off of Highway 11. You’ll truly be at one with your camera and with nature. If you’re there at the right time of year, Oklahoma is a popular stop along a major bald eagle migration route, too.

6. Apache Trail – Arizona

Take breathtaking drive through the rugged terrain of Arizona’s Superstition Mountains. Originally built as a stagecoach road in the early 20th century, the Apache Trail was named after the Apache Indians who used this same route to cross the mountains. Today, it is Arizona’s State Route 88, an easy day trip from Phoenix.

Much of the Apache Trail is unpaved, but passable in a standard passenger car. There are several steep, narrow hills and one-lane bridges. My best advice to you is that if you don’t like heights, don’t look down. When you reach the end of the trail, you’ll be rewarded with spectacular views of Theodore Roosevelt Lake.

7. Death Valley’s Badwater Backcountry – California

You don’t appreciate exactly how extreme an environment Death Valley is until you travel through its backcountry. Head west out of Pahrump, Nevada, and follow California Highways 178, 127, and 190. You’ll wind up in the heart of Death Valley National Park in the aptly-named town of Furnace Creek, California. Furnace Creek measured the world-record high temperature of 134°F (57°C) on 10 July, 1913. You’ll also pass through Badwater Basin, which marks the lowest point in the United States, at 86 meters (282 ft) below sea level.

Before setting out, please know what you’re getting yourself into. You will be driving through some of the most remote, desolate backcountry in the world. There will be times that you’re more than 120 km (75 mi) from the nearest town.

Gas up before you leave Pahrump, as it could be over 320 km (200 mi) before you see another gas station. Stay hydrated, as dehydration and heat exhaustion are possible even in the winter. And if you break down? You better know how to fix it or have a satellite phone. There is no cell service inside Death Valley National Park, and seeing other cars in the backcountry is extremely rare.

8. White Sands National Park – New Mexico

Home to the world’s largest gypsum dunefield, White Sands is a true natural wonder. Sitting just outside of Alamogordo, New Mexico, it’s one of the only National Parks that is very slowly moving downwind.

Are you wondering what exactly gypsum is? It looks like salt, and feels like sand, but is in fact neither of them. Gypsum is a soft mineral composed mainly of calcium sulfate. In fact, the “sand” at White Sands National Park is soluble in water. If you put a handful of it into a glass of water, it will dissolve.

9. Antelope Hills – Oklahoma

The Antelope Hills are a small, but important landmark in the history of both Oklahoma and the United States as a whole. In addition to marking the westernmost point settlers could claim in Oklahoma during the land rush of the 1800s, it also marked the US-Mexico border.

At the time, it separated the United States’ Indian Territory from Mexico’s Alta California territory. Alta California was mostly comprised of what is currently Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. The United States acquired the territory as part of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, which ended the Mexican-American War in 1848.

The dirt road to the Antelope Hills is passable in a standard passenger car and is generally void of other traffic. However, be aware that 18-wheelers sometimes use it as a shortcut to access a nearby oil rig, so the road can be extremely washboarded at times. If you’re in the area, I encourage you to visit the nearby Black Kettle National Grassland and the Washita Battlefield National Historic Site.

10. Lee’s Ferry and Marble Canyon – Arizona

If you’re looking to avoid crowds at the Grand Canyon, make a stop near Page at Lee’s Ferry and Marble Canyon. Sitting just outside the boundaries of Grand Canyon National Park, there is plenty of space to keep yourself socially-distanced from the few other people that may be there.

Pull up a chair on the beach and stick your feet in the water to cool off. Have a picnic, read a book, or just relax and enjoy the solitude. If you’re feeling exceptionally brave, take a swim. Lee’s Ferry is only a few miles downstream of the Glen Canyon Dam, so water temperature usually top out around 45°F (7°C), even in the dead of summer.

As you leave Lee’s Ferry, stop for a few photos at the Navajo Bridge. The foot bridge provides stunning views of Marble Canyon from 500 feet above the Colorado River. Be aware that the bridge can occasionally be crowded, though large crowds are mostly a summer phenomenon.

11. Scenic Highway 12 – Utah

Utah’s Scenic Highway 12 is probably the most spectacular drive I’ve ever taken. It’s well-deserving of its distinction as an All-American Road. You’ll see the stunning rock formations near Zion National Park, the famous hoodoos of Bryce Canyon, majestic mountains, lush forests, and much more.

If Scenic Highway 12 leaves you craving more, the highway provides easy access to Zion National Park, Bryce Canyon National Park, the Burr Trail, Capitol Reef National Park, and Utah’s Scenic Highway 95. Do you have a 4×4 and a stronger quest for adventure? Many of Utah’s famous scenic backways, including Hell’s Backbone and Hole-in-the-Rock, can be found right off of Highway 12.

12. US-395 – California

Many travel guides properly designate US-395 in California as an All-American Road Trip. Running along the base of the Sierra Nevada Mountains from Ridgecrest to Lake Tahoe, there is no shortage of beautiful scenery.

After starting on the valley floor, you’ll pass through deserts, grasslands, and pine forests as you ascend to nearly 2,500 meters (8,200 feet) elevation at Conway Summit. For more than just a driving trip, US-395 offers plenty of side excursions. Turn off and explore the Alabama Hills, Inyo or Stanislaus National Forests, or one of the roads to the many ski resorts along the way.

In the wintertime, please check the road conditions for every road you plan to explore in this area. The Sierra Nevada are notorious for their massive snowstorms, which often strike fast and hard. As a result, many roads close in the winter, and you don’t want to get cut-off or stranded.

Additionally, I also recommend you carry tire chains at all times during the winter months. California requires them for most vehicles when it snows in the Sierra. If you have any doubts about snow, consider driving US-95 as an alternate. It runs parallel to US-395 on the Nevada side of the state line at a much lower elevation. It’s not quite as scenic, but it sure beats sitting around at home.

13. Gloss Mountain State Park – Oklahoma

Don’t let the fact that it’s less than 1 square mile fool you. Gloss Mountain State Park packs a punch for its small size. Take the short hike to the top of the escarpment for spectacular 360-degree views of the surrounding prairie. It’s an incredible spot to watch the sunset. Alternatively, find a quiet spot to have a picnic, ponder your thoughts, or meditate.

When you’re done, drive the Gloss Mountain Loop. The dirt track loop is part of Oklahoma’s Great Plains Trail system. While not part of the state park, it offers a unique perspective of the surrounding area, and plenty of good photo ops. You’ll probably meet a few friendly cows along the way, too.

14. Mogollon Rim – Arizona

I can only describe the Mogollon Rim as a therapeutic escape. At nearly 8,000 feet (2,200) meters above sea level, I have always used it to escape Phoenix’s scorching summer heat. There’s something truly magical when you feel the cool summer breezes through the ponderosa pines. Using that logic, it would make a great escape from Covid life as well.

The Mogollon Rim Road, Forest Road 300, runs about 75 km (45 mi) right along the edge of the rim. It passes through the Coconino and Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests, offering an incredible diversity of viewpoints and photo ops. Find a quiet spot with a great view at one of the many turnouts along the Rim Road or head over to one of the area’s many lakes and fully immerse yourself in your escape.

Note: The Mogollon Rim Road closes for the winter after the first major snowfall and usually re-opens sometime in April.

15. Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge – Oklahoma

The Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge was one of my go-to getaways when I lived in Oklahoma. Start your day with a drive up Mt. Scott for a bird’s eye overview of the refuge. At 2,500 feet (760 meters) above sea level, the summit of Mt. Scott is the highest point in the main body of Oklahoma. From the top, you’ll get a breathtaking 360 degree view of the wildlife refuge, the Wichita Mountains, and nearby towns.

Next, make your way through the wildlife refuge on State Highway 49. Stop at any of the lakes, information stations, or pullouts. You’ll often see buffalo and longhorn cattle roaming the grasslands. There is never a shortage of wildlife for bird watchers, especially during the bald eagle migrations through Oklahoma. Additionally, keep an eye out for prairie dogs peeking out from their burrows.

If you still have some time, visit Great Plains State Park and Quartz Mountain State Park. Both are located just west of the Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge. They highlight the true diversity of the landscapes across southwestern Oklahoma. You’ll see much of the same wildlife and achieve the same rewarding escape.

Conclusion

I can’t stress enough the importance of taking care of your mental health during this Covid winter. There will be dark days, as well as times that feel hopeless. Having an outlet to give you a temporary escape from reality and put a smile back on your face is one of the best decisions you can make for yourself.

Top Photo: Gorgeous Landscapes at the Rainbow Point Overlook
Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah – May, 2017

The post 15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Western United States appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Panicking only leads to making poor decisions, which in the context of storm chasing, can lead to injury and even death. You can read about my hairiest storm chasing moments, such as the time I got caught in five and a half inch diameter hail and the time a cluster of three tornadic supercells tried to merge right on top of me and cut off my only route home. Had panic set in, the outcome may have been different. My point here is that the same concept applies with the coronavirus pandemic. No matter how good or how bad things look, the best time to panic is never.

It’s Like Having the Check Engine Light Come On in Your Car

Earlier this week, the Arizona Republic used a very apt metaphor do describe the current situation: it’s like having the check engine light come on in your car. It’s telling you something is wrong and should be investigated as soon as possible, but is certainly not a reason to pull over right away and call a tow truck. Nor is it a reason to put a piece of black tape over the light.

Let’s have a look at 5 states that have made a lot of coronavirus headlines recently: Arizona, California, Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas. All of them except for California have been setting new daily case and hospitalization records left, right, and center over the past two to three weeks. We’ll look at the current and past data, as well as what to expect over the next month or so.

How Has the COVID-19 Model Performed?

Before we begin, I want to make one final point about the COVID-19 models. No matter what you are modeling, the accuracy of the predictions diminishes significantly the further out in time you go. For example, do you know how often models that are used to make our day-to-day weather forecasts are correct when they make predictions more than about 5 to 7 days out? Less than 10% of the time. You see the same phenomenon in the coronavirus models, just with a slightly different timeframe.

My coronavirus model is run twice per week and makes two predictions for 56 states and provinces in the US and Canada:

• Case counts 2 weeks from the date of the model run
• Case counts 1 month from the date of the model run

Have any guesses as to how it’s been performing since early May?

That’s a pretty stark difference. The incorrect predictions are often pretty close, but a miss is still a miss. Also, the model has underestimated over 99% of the incorrect predictions it has made since early May. In other words, when the model was wrong, the actual case count was higher than what the model predicted, which is to be expected during a COVID-19 spike. Please keep this in mind when viewing model projections in this post. You can view the full details of how the model is performing on my COVID-19 Dashboard.

All plots and maps below contain data through Thursday, 18 June, 2020.

General Overview

Before we dive into each individual state, let’s look at a general overview of how the five states stack up against each other. Click on any plot or map to enlarge it.

First, a map showing the change in new cases over the past 14 days:

And now, the time series plots. The new daily cases are a 7-day moving average.

Arizona

Arizona continues to be one of my biggest concerns, for reasons beyond just the fact that I live there. You can pretty easily trace the spike in case back to the state’s Stay-at-Home Order expiring on May 15th. I’ll let you decide for yourself whether or not the state opened too early.

Both hospital bed use and percent of positive PCR tests (the tests that say you currently have the virus) have been setting record highs routinely over the past week and half or so. Take a look at these numbers, direct from the Arizona Department of Health Services website.

The hospitalization statistics and percentage of positive of PCR tests are they key metrics to watch not just in Arizona, but in all of the states we’re looking at today.

Now, while those numbers look grim, there are a few glimmers of hope. First, look at this chart of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day. Full disclosure, though, I have heard numerous unconfirmed reports that this chart is missing data for the past week or so, and especially for the past few days.

However, I do have reason to believe that this chart is at least partially true. Look at the charts above showing the hospital beds and ICU beds in use. While they’re certainly not leveling off, the rate of increase in bed use is slowly starting to slow down. A couple days ago, Governor Doug Ducey also gave mayors the power to require face masks in public (many cities in Arizona and Maricopa County now require masks), which will also help slow the spread of the virus and dampen the spike.

Will Arizona Become the New Epicenter?

So, what should we expect going forward? Let’s look into the crystal ball and see what the model says. Don’t forget that while I ran the model out to the first of September, the accuracy of its forecasts drops significantly after the 4th of July.

My personal prediction is that while there is potential for Arizona to become the new epicenter, I think the chances of that actually happening are pretty low. I also think with face mask mandates going into effect, the chances of having to go back into a statewide lockdown or stay at home situation are low. However, should hospitals get overwhelmed, all bets are off.

California

California is an interesting beast to tame on the COVID front, mainly due to its large size and its large population. At first glance, the chart of new cases doesn’t really show anything that jumps off the page at you. Instead, it just shows a steady increase in daily new cases over time.

What’s happening in California right now is actually a microcosm of what’s happening in the United States right now. Different parts of the state are peaking at different times as the epicenter moves around the state. Back in March and April, the San Francisco Bay Area bore the brunt of the COVID outbreak, while the epicenter has now shifted to southern California, primarily in the greater Los Angeles area. Here are the latest county-by-county data from this morning.

One very interesting observation: Los Angeles County currently has 47% of the California’s entire cases.

What is the model saying?

With the exception of LA County, I’m not too worried about California as whole right now. The spike you keep hearing about on the news is primarily contained to LA County and the surrounding areas, with smaller outbreaks happening in places like Fresno and the San Juaquin valley.

That being said, LA County is the most populated county in the US, so it must continue to be closely watched, especially if hospitals continue to be stretched. The whole Los Angeles area needs to we closely monitored. Governor Gavin Newsom just required masks to be worn in public statewide, but how much of an effect that has remains to be seen because many of California’s cities, including LA and many of its suburbs, already had local ordinances requiring them.

Looking into the crystal ball, I would expect the state’s steady increase to continue as the epicenter moves around the state, which will effectively cancel out the decrease in cases in other parts of the state. The model shows cases starting to level out once we get into July, but we’ll have to wait and see what happens. It’s shown that before for California and was wrong.

Florida

Oh, Florida. What are we going to do with you? You seem hell-bent on just putting the piece of black tape over the check engine light and continuing on your merry way. It’s been all over the news that Florida could be the next epicenter of COVID-19. However, note that all the reports and news headlines use the word “could”, not “will”. You can still avoid becoming the next epicenter.

According to the State of Florida’s own COVID-19 dashboard, only 1 of its 68 counties meet the criteria to enter the next phase of reopening. The one county that does meet those requirements is Liberty County, which sits in a rural part of the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee.

The state’s dashboard also gives each county a letter grade for how well they are social distancing. Only 4 out of 68 counties graded higher than a C-, and all 4 of those counties got a C. If you’re looking to slow the transmission rate down, that’s where I would start. For a state that has openly admitted to doctoring its data, these numbers are pretty pathetic.

Not surprisingly, cases are exploding in cities across the state.

What’s going on in Florida hospitals?

The state’s dashboard doesn’t have a whole lot of useful information about hospitalizations, but it shows that there are 1,395 available ICU beds throughout the state. I have no idea what percentage of total ICU beds that is.

Now, there is a glimmer of hope that does come with a big “but”. The number of daily new deaths in Florida is actually going down right now…

…BUT, if you look closely at the new cases plot, you will notice that the spike in cases started at Day 80, which was 16 days ago (today is Day 96). Unfortunately, when you have an increase in cases, the increase in deaths usually lags the increase in cases by two to four weeks, which means that it’s likely coming and just hasn’t gotten here yet.

If we look into the crystal ball, here is the model’s best prediction of what’s to come. Please take note that if the state and its residents continue to do nothing about the outbreak, there will be a significant COVID-19 spike with many more cases than what the model is forecasting.

Remember, Florida, it’s not too late to do something about this. Be smart, use common sense, and don’t become the next Florida Man.

Oklahoma

This is another interesting case. Oklahoma’s numbers throughout the pandemic have been lower than the rest of the country, likely due to the lack of major population centers. However, I get the feeling that if the President wasn’t having a campaign rally in Tulsa tomorrow, there would likely be very little, if any, mention of Oklahoma’s coronavirus case numbers on the national news.

Yes, it’s true that new cases have ticked up and are at record highs, and I’m not trying to downplay this, but even these record numbers of new cases are an order of magnitude less what Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas are all seeing. Case counts are currently low enough that there is very little threat to the health care system being overwhelmed.

If we break things down by county, you will find that most of the state’s cases are clustered around the two major population centers: Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

An Interesting Twist that Could Seed COVID-19 Spread

Now, tomorrow’s presidential campaign rally in Tulsa is where things start to get tricky. Tulsa County currently has the highest case count in the state (2,070 confirmed cases), which account for just under one out of every four cases in the state.

The combination of the spike in COVID-19 cases with a large indoor gathering of people coming from all over the country has the potential to be a super-spreader event and seed outbreaks in other parts of the country, but it is not going to turn Oklahoma in to a coronavirus epicenter. It’s not a sure thing that it will be a super-spreader event, either, but it certainly has the potential to be. Attendees taking proper precautions is critical to keeping the super-spreader risk as low as possible.

A model that CNN ran showed that the rally could cause up to 1,000 new cases. That alone may not sound like very much, but once people go back to the various corners of the country from where they came and spreading it to friends, family, etc., that 1,000 cases can turn into a very big number very quickly. Keep that in mind whenever you’re out in public.

So what’s in store for Oklahoma? Here’s the model run, but keep in mind that it does not account for any effects of the presidential rally in Tulsa tomorrow night. If this forecast verifies, there should not be any issues with overwhelming the health care system. Residents should take the spike in COVID-19 cases seriously and be smart about taking precautions when out in public.

Texas

The Lone Star State seemed like they were trying really hard to put the black tape over the check engine light, but finally realized that doing so was a bad idea. This week, Governor Greg Abbott gave mayors the power to require masks in public. Like Arizona, many cities in Texas now require them, which I expect will slow the spike in COVID-19 cases.

While California was a microcosm of the United States, with its epicenter moving around the state, Texas is not seeing that same phenomenon. Most of Texas’ major population centers are seeing the same uptick in cases all at once.

The one big exception to that rule is Amarillo, which saw a major outbreak at a meat processing plant back in May. The city put restrictions into place to curb that outbreak that were much more severe than the rest of the state, and it shows. The COVID-19 spike the rest of the state is experiencing is largely absent from Potter County data.

Hospital Statistics in Texas

Hospitalizations are definitely trending up in Texas, and hospitals are currently 77% full, compared to 84% full in Arizona. The hospitalization data should be watched closely over the next month to six weeks. Hopefully the mask mandates will be able to keep the hospitals from having to activate their emergency or surge plans.

The good news is that if the model prediction verifies, Texas should have a pretty good chance at preventing its healthcare system from being overwhelmed, especially once the mask mandates go into effect. The big question will be when will the daily new cases start to turn the corner on the new daily cases plot. The longer it takes, the bumpier of a ride it’s going to be.

Wrapping It All Up

Whew, that was a lot of data that we covered today. Yes, that was a lot of data we absorbed, and it certainly can look pretty bad in all five states. The good news is that even if you don’t live in any of these states, we can all do our part to slow the spike by not panicking, being smart about when and how we go out and interact in public, and using common sense. Don’t wait around for your mayor, county, or governor to issue mandates. Act now. The sooner we slow the spread and bend the curve down, the sooner we can get back to our normal lives.

Top Photo: Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona – January, 2019

The post COVID-19 Spikes in Arizona, Florida, Texas, and More: How Concerned Should We Be? appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I only ran the models out until early May because we need to focus on what’s going to happen in the next two to three weeks, not what’s going to be happening several months in the future. Additionally, model forecasts get less accurate the further into the future you go. This run assumes current social distancing restrictions remain in place through mid-May and does not account for any additional surges or waves of the virus that may occur later this spring, this summer, or this fall.

Don’t forget, you can always get more information about the model and view detailed case data on my COVID-19 Dashboard. Additionally, I will write up a separate post about the mathematics, equations, and methodologies used in my coronavirus model, which I’m hoping to get posted in the next day or two. Stay tuned for additional discussions about each hot zone as more data comes in.

Alberta

Arizona

British Columbia

California

Connecticut

Florida

Georgia

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

Oklahoma

Ontario

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Québec

Rhode Island

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

U.S. Virgin Islands

Washington (State)

After several requests, I updated this post on 16 April, 2020 to include additional states and provinces, bringing the total to 26 plots instead of 24.

Top Photo: Palo Duro Canyon State Park – Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post A Look at the Best-Fit COVID-19 Model Curves for 24 Key States and Provinces appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Overview of SIR Model Output

Each city has four plots. The top row is the “working” model output, with the model curve best fit to the actual data. The bottom row is an experimental model output showing the effect of social distancing. In the “working” model runs on the top row, there are 5 lines on each plot. The middle line is the R Naught value that was reverse-engineered by fitting the model output to the actual data, and there are two lines on each side of the best-fit line showing different R Naught values in steps of 0.2.

Note: The y-axis on some of the experimental social distancing plots showing the total case count (bottom right plot for each city) is mislabeled. It should read “Total Cases”, not “Number of Infected”.

Finally, don’t forget that the plots below assume the R Naught values and the amount of social distancing remains constant throughout the entire time series. In reality, additional social distancing restrictions will dampen the curve and shift it to the right, while removing social distancing restrictions will cause the curve to accelerate and shift to the left.

Confidence in SIR Model Predictions

My confidence level in the “working”/top row model outputs is as follows:

• Predicting the apex of the outbreak: medium-high to high. The curves should at least be “in the ballpark.”
• Predicting the total number of cases: low to very low. With how fast things are changing right now and how fast new data is coming in, we just don’t know at this point. My gut feeling is that the case count projections in these model runs are likely high overall, but from a public health perspective, I would much rather have the model overestimate case counts than underestimate them.

Plots are in alphabetical order by city, with a table of additional cities at the bottom. Click on any plot to view it full size.

Boston, Massachusetts

Chicago, Illinois

Detroit, Michigan

Los Angeles, California

Montréal, Québec

New Orleans, Louisiana

New York, New York

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Ottawa, Ontario

Portland, Oregon

Phoenix, Arizona

San Francisco, California

Tampa, Florida

Toronto, Ontario

SIR Model Outputs for Additional Cities

Please note that this table contains outputs of just this single model run and does not necessarily reflect what my actual predictions are. I will be putting this table on my COVID-19 Pandemic Tracker later this week and regularly updating it there.

Data points I’m skeptical of in this output (with some comments):

• Chicago, IL: Case count is likely overestimated. I’m not sure why, but the most likely reason is good social distancing.
• Los Angeles, CA: Case count is likely overestimated due to California being better at social distancing than what was input into the model
• Seattle, WA: Peak date is incorrect due to the State of Washington’s 100th case occurring before John’s Hopkins began breaking down data by state.
• Washington, DC: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve
• Winnipeg, MB: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve

The post Complete Revised SIR Model Forecasts (8 April): USA and Canada appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

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The stay at home order states that home-based business that are not open to the general public can continue to operate. As a result, operations will continue as close to normal as possible.

Non-essential businesses may continue to operate those activities that do not require in-person, on-site transactions and are encouraged to maintain at lease minimum basic operations that maintain the value of the business’ inventory, preserve the condition of the business’ physical plant and equipment, ensure security, process payroll and employee benefits, facilitate employees of the business being able to continue to work remotely from their residences, and related functions to include mail pickup.

Arizona Executive Order 2020-18: Stay Home, Stay Healthy, Stay Connected

As I mentioned in the previous update, please let me know if there’s anything you need from me or if there’s anything I can do to help you or your business get through these unprecedented times.

Matt Gove Photo

All operations remain suspended indefinitely. Things will resume once the pandemic recedes and it becomes appropriate to resume adventuring. At this time, I simply do not know when that will be.

This Blog

I will continue to publish normally scheduled posts and updates to this blog. I remain committed to providing you with the most accurate and up-to-date information as possible during this crisis. Please do not hesitate to reach out with any questions, comments, or requests you may have.

Stay safe and stay healthy everyone.

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You can say the same thing about the COVID-19 pandemic. We all have a job to do to beat this thing. Every single one of us. Please use common sense, stay informed, and heed the warnings, guidance, and orders from your local, state, and federal government. Just like Hurricane and Tornado Warnings, there is a reason they are issuing warnings right now. Let’s have a look at why.

A New Type of Model: The SIR Model

Last week, we took a look at modeling the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States using Gaussian functions. Gaussian functions are also known as bell curves. Not surprisingly, there are more accurate ways to model a pandemic like this than with bell curves. Today, we are going to look at different scenarios using the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Resistant) model. The SIR model is a simple model that uses a system of three differential equations to specifically model disease outbreaks.

The relationship between the equations is:

Getting into how to solve the differential equations is a discussion for another time. In English, the equations and variables describe:

• S(t) – The number of susceptible people (people who have not yet contracted the disease) over time
• I(t) – The number of infected people (people who are currently sick) over time
• R(t) – The number of resistant people (people who have either recovered or died) over time. The model assumes that recovered people cannot get sick a second time.
  • Note: In the model outputs below, I have broken R(t) down into recovered and dead.
• β – controls how often a susceptible-infected contact results in a new infection
• γ – The rate an infected person recovers and moves into the resistant phase

Introduction to R Naught

Now, you’re probably wondering where the “R naught” parameter comes in. R naught, denoted as R0, is the reproduction number. It is just a fancy way to say the average number of susceptible people to which an infected person spreads the disease. For example, if R naught is 3, it means that one infected person spreads the disease to an average of 3 other people over the course of their illness. We’ll define R naught as:

R0 = β / γ

Now, before we jump into the model, let’s have a look at the model inputs. Within the model, we need to define the population N. The population of the United States is about 330 million. We also need to define the average duration of infection, which according to the CDC is about 14 days. The initial conditions for each equation [S(t), I(t), and R(t)] were set so the numbers mirror the actual data of the outbreak in the United States so far.

The only input to the model is the R naught parameter. While we will be running the model for different scenarios, we’ll start with what the US Federal Government currently defines for R naught: R0 = 2.3. Keep in mind that these figures assume R0 is constant, while in the real world R0 is changing constantly.

A Few Short-Term SIR Model Predictions for the United States

First, a couple of short-term predictions from the SIR model, again assuming a constant R0.

Before we plot everything out over the course of the pandemic, I need to point out a few very important things:

• The plot (and the above plots) assumes R0 stays constant at 2.3. In the real world, R0 is constantly changing.
• Because R0 stays constant, it means that this scenario does not account for preventative measures, such as restrictions on large crowds, restaurant and bar closings, travel bans, and shelter-in-place orders.
• This is a worst-case scenario and the odds of this actually playing out are very slim.

Flattening the Curve

Flattening the curve. You hear it all over the news. What does it mean? If you leave the virus unchecked, it will grow exponentially and quickly overwhelm the hospital system when all of the sick patients show up at once. Instead, health authorities want to slow down the rate the disease is spreading and spread the sick patients out over time so hospitals can handle the volume of patients.

So how do we slow down the rate the disease is spreading? Simply lower the value of R naught. Okay, in the real world it’s quite a bit more complicated. Federal, state, and local governments across the country are putting measures in place to slow down the spread of the virus and reduce R naught, which may include:

• Bans on large gatherings
• Quarantines and Self-Isolation
• Closing of schools, restaurants, bars, museums, and other public places where people tend to gather
• Cancellations of Events
• Closing Borders and Travel Bans
• Shelter In Place Orders and Lockdowns

Still don’t believe me that flattening the curve works? Have a look at the following figure. I ran the SIR model several times with identical parameters, only varying the R naught values. Like the above examples, R naught remains constant for each run. These are just hypothetical scenarios and are not any kind of indication that anything like this will actually play out in the real world.

By reducing the R0 value from 2.6 down to 1.6, the number of infected people at the peak of the outbreak drops from 80 million down to about 25 million. For those of you that are mathematically challenged, that’s about 2/3, or 67% fewer infected people at the peak of the outbreak.

Modeling the Changing R Naught Values

The easiest way to model the changing R naught values is to use piecewise functions to solve the differential equations. That just means we will assign different values of R naught for different values of time (t in the differential equations at the top of this post). If you’ve ever done numerical analysis or numerical integration, you’ve probably come across piecewise functions at some point, but that’s a discussion for another day.

So how does this all translate to the real world? Consider a scenario that we’ve seen in a lot of countries so far in this pandemic. The virus spreads undetected within the community at the start of the outbreak. Then, federal, state, and local authorities put increasingly restrictive measures into place. Restrictions start with bans on large gatherings. They then escalate to closing down restaurants, bars, and other public places. Finally, officials order a mandatory shelter-in-place or lockdown.

To illustrate this visually, I modeled a hypothetical scenario where the virus starts with R0 = 2.3. It spreads undetected for about 45 days at the onset of the outbreak. The government orders restrictions, scaling down R Naught until the issuance of a shelter-in-place order. In this scenario, it takes about a month to go from issuing the first restriction to a full lockdown. In the real world, the restrictions are implemented much faster than that. For example, it took Italy 12 days to go from just a handful of cases to the entire country under lockdown. It took Spain 9 days to do the same.

Looking at the Real World

This is where it gets tricky. Because the United States is so big and diverse, let’s look at ten major cities instead. Different states, counties, and cities have enacted different bans to combat the virus, making it nearly impossible to accurately use this model at a national level. For example, the shelter-in-place that was just issued for the San Francisco Bay area is not going to affect what’s going on in Seattle, Chicago, or New York.

A Few Things to Keep in Mind

• These models consider the population of each metro area, which include the main city plus all of its suburbs.
• The R0 values on the plots are fixed for each run. In the real world, the R0 values will start high and then drop as restrictions are enacted.
• The high number of undetected or asymptomatic cases will help keep the R0 value of COVID-19 high.
• The “Peak” label in the legends refers to the number of infected people at the peak of the outbreak for that scenario.
• You want to focus on the number of infected people at the peak of each scenario. Do not worry about the exact dates of the peaks of the outbreaks.
  • As you look at those peak values, think of how you can help with social distancing to reduce R0.
• The current R0 value of the coronavirus in the United States is about 2.3, according to the federal government. That means that every infected person spreads the disease to an average of 2.3 other people. For comparison, the seasonal flu has an R0 value of 1.3.
• I don’t know what the hospital capacity is in each city, but for reference New York State (read: the whole state, not just NYC) has 54,000 hospital beds and 3,100 ICU beds.
• When the city of Wuhan, China enacted their total lockdown in January, the R0 value dropped from 2.35 to 1.05 in less than a week. You won’t see R0 drops this drastic in the United States. However, the goal to get R0 as low as possible remains the same.

SIR Model Outputs for Several US Cities

Conclusion

For this pandemic, I will say the same thing I say before just about every major weather disaster. Please heed your local, state, and federal government’s warnings. I can’t stress this enough. In a weather disaster, you’re only putting your own life at stake by being stupid. In a pandemic, you’re putting the lives of every one else who’s around you at stake as well.

I understand we are a society that rewards stupidity. If we all work together, there is still time to slow this thing down, but that window will slam shut in just a matter of a few days. All quarantining yourself from knowledge and common sense does is keep that critical R0 value high and put more lives at risk. I’ll leave you with one final plot of COVID-19 data comparing the US cases to Italy’s. This is actual data and is not generated by any models. Stay tuned for more updates.

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