Anthony Bourdain once famously said, “Travel changes you. As you move through this life and this world you change things slightly, you leave marks behind, however small. And in return, life — and travel — leaves marks on you.” Travel has left plenty of marks on me over the years. However, this quote really hit home after a recent road trip I took through California. Today, I want to share that story with you.

What Causes Severe Drought in Western States Such as California?

Most people attribute drought to the lack of rain. However, it’s actually not the primary cause of severe drought in the western United States. To find the culprit, you need to look in an unexpected place. In fact, you’ll find it in the exact opposite of the summer season that makes headlines for searing temperatures and massive wildfires.

The winter season actually determines how severe the drought will be in California and throughout the west. More specifically, the amount of snow that falls in the mountains is what drives drought levels. In the spring, the snow melt feeds rivers, streams, and creeks, providing water to the valleys below. Unlike a rainstorm, snow melt is a slow process that provides a steady supply of water for months. And for many rivers, snow melt is their only source of water.

Most of California’s mountains snows fall in the Sierra Nevada. Rising over 14,000 feet above sea level, the Sierra runs pretty much the entire length of California’s eastern border with Nevada. During normal winters, pretty much every snow event in the Sierras is measured in feet, not inches. Snow melt from the Sierra Nevada alone provides water over 25 million Californians – about 65% of the state’s population.

The California Drought: Data and Statistics

Before diving into the drought data for the entire state of California, let’s have a look at annual snowfall in the Sierra Nevada over the past ten years. We’ll at two hotspots for heavy snow. First up is Donner Pass, which sits along Interstate 80 just west of Truckee and northwest of Lake Tahoe. Then, we’ll look Mammoth Mountain, one of California’s most popular ski resorts. Mammoth Mountain sits about 45 miles (72 km) southeast of Yosemite National Park.

Snowfalls are Way Down in Recent Years Throughout the West

From the bar chart, it’s pretty clear that snow levels in the Sierra Nevada are way down every year since 2018. This pattern is echoed across mountain ranges throughout the west, from Washington to New Mexico. As a result, water levels have plummeted across the entire region due to the lack of snow melt. The southwestern states, plus California have born the brunt of the recent drought.

To further compound the matter, smaller snowpacks mean that the snow melts faster. In 2021, snowpack across the entire state of California had completely melted by May, about two to three months earlier than average. The faster rate of snow melt results in most of the water running off instead of being absorbed into soils that so desperately need it.

As you can probably deduce, dry soils lock a layer of extremely dry air at the surface throughout the summer months. Unfortunately, that only makes it harder for much needed rain to reach the ground. Much of California is caught in this vicious positive feedback loop that only makes the drought worse.

An Anthony Bourdain Quote and a Trip Up Interstate 5 Makes the Severity of the California Drought Really Hit Home

In January 2022, I took a road trip from Las Vegas to Salem, Oregon. Coupled with a stop to visit one of my best friends in San Francisco, the trip took me across nearly the entire state of California. It marked my first visit to California since February, 2020.

During that time, both the drought and wildfires have gotten exponentially worse, thanks to a lack of snowpack in the mountains. And seeing areas that were so lush and vibrant in 2017 now completely ravaged by drought and wildfire really left a big mark on me. In ways that really didn’t expect.

“Travel changes you. As you move through this life and this world you change things slightly, you leave marks behind, however small. And in return, life – and travel – leaves marks on you.”

Anthony Bourdain

A Stunning Drive Through California’s Central Valley

If you’ve never driven through California’s Central Valley, it’s one of the more uniquely spectacular drives in the United States. Responsible for 8% of the United States’ agricultural output, the Central Valley features lush and fertile fields surrounded by majestic mountains. It’s hard to not feel a special connection to nature. And if you drive through at the right time of year, the smell of fresh fruits and vegetables is heavenly.

Furthermore, when I drove through in mid-January, farmers were in the process of prepping and seeding their fields for the spring and summer growing seasons. Passing through the Central Valley was like a cleansing and rebirth for you mind and soul. At times, you felt like you were in a fairy tale, having been teleported to some faraway land. The pandemic and all the other problems in the world felt so far away.

A Stunning Snow-Capped Mt. Shasta Completes the Fairy Tale

Towering 14,179 feet above sea level and over 10,000 feet above the surrounding terrain, Mt. Shasta dominates the northern California landscape. It’s the second tallest mountain in the Cascades, behind only Mt. Rainier. And Rainier is only 250 feet taller. On a clear day, you can see Mt. Shasta from as far as Central Oregon, over 140 miles away. You can actually find some of the best views of Mt. Shasta right from both US-97 and Interstate 5.

Surrounding Mt. Shasta, you’ll find simply breathtaking scenery. Golden meadows, stunning rolling hills, and refreshing pine forests transport you even further into that fairy tale. All those worries you had to start the day seem even further away than they did down in the Central Valley.

As a photographer, I try to keep an eye out for good photo ops on road trips. However, a truly spectacular composition catches your eye right away. Shortly after beginning the climb out of the Central Valley up into the Cascades, I came around a corner on Interstate 5 and into a clearing. And what lay before me was one of the most perfectly composed landscapes I had ever seen.

Off in the distance sat Mt. Shasta, perfectly framed between two smaller mountains. It provided a beautiful backdrop for seemingly endless meadows and rolling hills that disappeared into a light haze that shrouded the base of the mountain. Small ponds dotted the foreground on the side of the freeway, adding even more diversity to the shot. It was a combination of beautiful, mysterious, and exotic, balanced to perfection. The perfect composition to capture the fairy tale I had drifted off into.

You Can’t Stop on the Freeway to Take Pictures

Unfortunately, I also had a few things working against me. Most critically, I was cruising at 70 miles per hour up Interstate 5. There were no exits or pullouts nearby, and I wasn’t about to stop in the middle of a busy freeway just to take a picture. Furthermore, there was no safe way for me to take a picture with my DSLR camera while I was driving. But I wasn’t going to let this perfect photo op go to waste.

While using my big camera was out of the question, I still had one more tool available to me. And at this point, it was really my only option. I grabbed my phone, rolled down the passenger side window, leaned over far enough to get the window frame out of the picture, and blindly started snapping as I kept looking forward to keep my eyes on the road.

I expected to get a decent shot. What I didn’t expect was to get one of the best photos I’ve ever taken, and one that will be put up for sale in our store very soon.

Then reality hit, hard. Like being hit by a Mack truck hard.

A California Landscape Ravaged by Wildfire and Drought

Over the past five years, parts of the Shasta-Trinity National Forest have been devastated by several major wildfires. The extreme drought that has suffocated California for much of that time has only made these fires larger and more intense. Most notable, the Carr Fire torched nearly 230,000 acres in the summer of 2018, forcing 38,000 people to evacuate their homes. It killed 11 people and caused $1.7 billion in damage.

Fast-forward three years. In late June, 2021, another fire broke out along Interstate 5 just north of Lake Shasta. That blaze, dubbed the Salt Fire, torched 13,000 acres on both sides of the freeway. While few people live in the area, the intensity of the fire devastated the landscape, changing it into a barren wasteland for years to come. The drought is one of the prime culprits behind the increase in both intensity and magnitude of these fires in California. But it’s not the only culprit. And there were far more blazes than just the two we’ve discussed here.

From Lush Forest to Charred Hellscape

Like many natural disasters, you simply cannot grasp the scale of these California wildfires from newscasts on television. The only way to properly do so is by traveling to the burn area and seeing the devastation firsthand. And when you’re driving through lush green forests, it hits e0ven harder when it catches you by surprise. Which is exactly what the burn scar from the Salt Fire did. You come around a corner, and bam, the landscape instantly changes.

The Salt Fire completely incinerated everything in its path. It wiped entire parts of the National Forest completely off the map. It was just blackened hills and a few remaining trunks of the trees that had burned. Everything else was gone. As far as the eye could see. Even six months after the fire, the smoky smell of burnt wood still faintly hung in the air.

Combined with the Wildfire Devastation, the California Drought at Lake Shasta Really Left Its Mark on Me. It Should Leave its Mark on You, Too.

The second I drove into that burn scar north of Redding, it instantly ended that fairy tale from the Central Valley. But interestingly, it didn’t leave as big a mark as you would have thought. For that, it took driving across the bridge at Lake Shasta to see the true effect the drought and the fires have had on California. It hits hard and it hits heavy, but it’s a series of pictures everyone should see.

View of Lake Shasta from Interstate 5 in August, 2017 (left) vs January, 2022 (right). Click on the image to enlarge.

And while the water level in the lake should be what instantly catches your eye, did you notice the mountains behind the lake in the 2022 picture? They were all burned in the recent fires. It’s hard to see in the 2017 photo because the lake was shrouded in smoke, but the forest was lush green back then.

Conclusion

As Anthony Bourdain so famously said, travel changes you and leaves its mark on you. But at the same time, it gives us the opportunity to leave our mark on it. We can use these experiences and lessons to influence our own decisions. The vast majority of wildfires in the United States are the result of human error. We can make better decisions to help prevent states like California from burning, as well as reduce the effect of severe drought. What steps will you take?

To wrap this all up, let’s go full circle and end with another Anthony Bourdain quote: “Travel isn’t always pretty. It isn’t always comfortable. Sometimes it hurts, it even breaks your heart. But that’s okay. The journey changes you; it should change you. It leaves marks on your memory, on your consciousness, on your heart, and on your body. You take something with you. Hopefully, you leave something good behind.” What good will you leave behind? Let us know in the comments.

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Top Photo: Low Water Levels Due to Severe Drought
Lake Shasta, California – January, 2022

The post A Powerful, Heartbreaking Exhibit of the Severe Drought in California appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Not surprisingly, Lake Tahoe offers incredible opportunities for landscape and nature photography. However, like the Grand Canyon, you’re going to want to do some planning to ensure that you make your next photography adventure at Lake Tahoe an epic one.

1. Know What Kind of Photos You Want to Take and Where to Take Them

Lake Tahoe has over 70 miles (115 km) of shoreline. Two thirds of it is in California, and the remaining third is in Nevada. If you’re looking to take a specific type of photo and just “wing it”, you’re going to be sorely disappointed. Once you factor in stops, you can easily eat up an entire day driving the perimeter of the lake.

Before you set out for the day, I recommend familiarizing yourself with the lay of the land. For example, you’ll find the best photo ops of clear turquoise waters on the Nevada side of the lake. On the other hand, if you’re looking for rugged shorelines and majestic mountain views, you’re better off on the California side.

Beach Photography

Beach photos can be found just about anywhere on the perimeter of the lake. However, I found the best beach scenery to be on the northeast quadrant of the lake between Tahoe Vista, California and Glenbrook, Nevada.

Mountain Photography

Similarly, you’ll also find mountain views anywhere on the perimeter of the lake. To capture the best photos of mountains, head to any of the state parks on the California side of the lake.

Forest Photography

For forest photography, head up into the Tahoe or Eldorado National Forests, which surround the California side of Lake Tahoe. If you don’t want to venture that far, any of the ski resorts or hiking trails in the Tahoe area offer good photo ops of the forest.

Crystal Clear Turquoise Lagoons

Photos of Lake Tahoe’s crystal clear turquoise lagoons are my favorite. Look along the northeast shores of the lake between Incline Village and Glenbrook, Nevada. You’ll need to hike for the best photo ops.

Zen Photography

Lake Tahoe’s rugged and rocky shorelines offer a unique opportunity to capture zen-like photos in its pristine lagoons. Your photos will bring a sense of calm, cleansing, and peace to any yoga studio, home, or office.

Aerial Photography

You don’t need a drone or any special flying equipment to take aerial photos at Lake Tahoe. Simply hike, drive, or climb up to the top of one of the area’s many bluffs, cliffs, or lookouts. Look for the best views on the northeast and southwest quadrants of the lake.

One thing I really love about the diversity of Lake Tahoe’s landscapes is that you can so easily combine the above elements into your photos. You can easily capture a beach photo with zen-like rocks in a crystal clear lagoon. Then, jump in the car, drive ten minutes, and capture a stunning photo of the forest using the Sierra Nevada mountains as a backdrop.

2. Be Wary of Sun Angles

The wrong sun angle will destroy an otherwise perfect photo of any body of water due to reflections and glare. If you plan to take any photos that are looking east, west, or south, time your arrival so you do not look straight into the sun.

I fully understand if the sun angles still confuse you. Here’s a general rule of thumb to follow to keep the sun at your back. Schedule your photo shoots on the east (Nevada) side of Lake Tahoe in the morning. After lunch, head over to the west (California) side of the lake for the afternoon.

3. How Far Off the Beaten Path Are You Willing to Go?

Lake Tahoe offers plenty of incredible photo ops where you don’t even have to get out of your car. If you’re taking photos to show off to friends and family, sticking to car-accessible locations is perfectly fine. However, if you’re looking to sell your photos or get people to notice them, you need to do more to make them stand out. There are millions of photos out there from those car-accessible spots.

Fortunately, there are tons of options available to help you get off the beaten path. Because of the steep, rugged terrain, you don’t have to go far to obtain a unique perspective that makes your photos really stand out from the rest. There are trails from just about every car pullout and turnoff that go either up the mountain or down towards the lake. These options include:

• Hiking or Mountain Biking
• Boating or Paddleboarding
• Swimming
• Skiing or Snowshoeing

A Word About Swimming

Do not try to swim long distances in Lake Tahoe unless you have either a wetsuit or dry suit. The water is extremely cold year-round, reaching a peak temperature of about 61°F / 16°C at the height of summer.

4. What Time of Year Are You Visiting Lake Tahoe?

Lake Tahoe is an outdoor paradise year-round that experiences all four seasons. While each season has its pros and cons, you need to ensure you are prepared for whatever Mother Nature can throw at you.

Summer

Lake Tahoe is one of the premier summer getaways in the world. Sitting approximately 6,500 feet (1,980 m) above sea level, its cool summer breezes offer relief from the brutal heat that scorches the west every summer. As a result, beaches and resort areas are usually very crowded in the summer. Plan your photo shoots accordingly. Early mornings are often the best time to avoid the crowds.

If you plan to visit Lake Tahoe in the summer or fall, you’ll also need to pay attention to wildfires burning up and down the west coast. While fires threatening the lakeside communities are rare, smoke can wreak havoc on all outdoor activities, including photography. For the best photos, try to pick a day where the lake is upwind of all fires that are pushing smoke into the area.

Winter

My favorite time to visit any popular tourist destination is in the offseason. The winter months are the quietest along the lakeshore as people retreat to the ski resorts. Beaches are largely void of crowds and the pace of life in town slows down. Both the air and the water are much clearer in the winter. The snow-capped Sierra Nevada are simply stunning. The best snow photography is often right after a major snowstorm.

Unfortunately, Mother Nature poses far bigger threats in the winter than in the summer. The Sierra Nevada endure some of the most severe winter weather in the world. Snowstorms in the Sierra are well-known to strike fast and fierce, and are more often measured in feet than inches. Hurricane-force wind gusts are not uncommon, and roads can close without warning.

I’m not saying these to scare you. The motto we always used in Oklahoma during tornado season was “don’t be scared, be prepared.” Always check the weather forecast before you travel. Stay home if you’re not comfortable driving in winter conditions on steep, winding mountain roads.

If you travel to Lake Tahoe during the winter months, you must carry tire chains with you, even if it’s not forecast to snow. Carrying chains is required by law in California, regardless of the weather. Both the California and Nevada DOT’s will require chains when it snows.

Second, know how to use your chains. Practice putting them on in your driveway. You don’t want to be fumbling around on the side of the road in a major snowstorm trying to figure it out. Do not drive faster than 25-30 mph (40-50 km/h) with chains on. Come prepared, know your limits, and you’ll have a safe and enjoyable winter visit to Lake Tahoe.

5. Lake Tahoe is a Great Spot for Abstract Photography

An abstract photo is an image that does not have an immediate association with the object world. They often isolate portions of a natural scene to remove its context from the viewer.

Lake Tahoe offers an abundance of opportunities for abstract photography. which include, but are certainly not limited to:

• Water and Reflections
• Sand/Beaches
• Rocks
• Mountains
• Trees

Additionally, if you’re there in the wintertime, ice formations make for some interesting abstract photos.

6. Panorama, Wide-Angle, and Telephoto Photography at Lake Tahoe

There’s no right or wrong way to photograph Lake Tahoe. Like most landscape photography, you have three options to choose from.

Panorama

Lake Tahoe panoramas are absolutely breathtaking. Nobody will argue with you there. The secret to a successful panorama is to use the aerial photography approach we discussed earlier. Find an elevated location with at least a 180-degree field of view and let her rip.

Wide Angle

Most traditional landscape photography is wide-angle. At Lake Tahoe, wide angle photography works at both aerial locations and at lake-level. Make sure your intended subject is centered in the photo and is the dominant feature.

Set your zoom levels so you can still take in the entire scene. For example, let’s say your primary subject is the turquoise lagoon. The mountains in the background should be well-established: not so small you can’t see them, but also not so big they dominate the frame.

Telephoto

Landscape photography with a telephoto lens can be tricky to pull off successfully. Lake Tahoe is a great place to get your feet wet with it. While you are more than welcome to try at lake level, telephoto landscape photography is much easier from an elevated or aerial position.

You’ll also need a very specific subject that can take up the majority of the frame. A few examples of good subjects include an island, a boat, a dock, a specific mountain, and a tree. Don’t be afraid to get creative with your subjects or try shooting from creative angles.

View the Full Photo Gallery

Head over to the Matt Gove Photo website to view all of the photos I took at Lake Tahoe in early February, 2020.

• California Side of Lake Tahoe, including Emerald Bay and the California State Parks.
• Nevada Side of Lake Tahoe, including Sand Harbor and its stunning turquoise waters
• Hike to the top of Cave Rock for some breathtaking aerial photos of Lake Tahoe and the Sierra Nevada.

Conclusion

Lake Tahoe is one of the beautiful and breathtaking locations in the world. It’s an outdoor paradise that every landscape photographer should visit at least once in their lifetime.

Many people underestimate just how big Lake Tahoe actually is and try to cram too much into one photo shoot. Know what kind of photos you’re after, how you’re going to get there, and what conditions to expect. If you don’t get everything you want, you can always come back and get it next time.

Top Photo: The snow-capped Sierra Nevada provide a stunning backdrop to one of the many crystal clear lagoons at Lake Tahoe.
Incline Village, Nevada – February, 2020

The post Lake Tahoe Photography: Your 6-Step Guide to an Epic Adventure appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

With all international travel and most domestic travel on hold, look closer to home for happiness. Interestingly, some of the photography adventures I have taken in years past check all of the boxes for Covid safety. What a perfect way to boost your mental health! Today, let’s have a look at fifteen destinations in the western United States to get outside and explore. In addition, you can treat your mental health away from the crowds and from the safety of your Covid bubble.

A Word of Caution About Adventuring During COVID

Just because we’re talking about fun adventures today does not mean it’s a green light to let loose. Stay close to home and stick to day trips. This is not the appropriate time to be pin-balling all over the country. Don’t invite all of your friends to come with you, either. Instead, stick to small groups of people you live with, who are already in your Covid bubble. Pack plenty of food, drinks, and sanitizer so you don’t need to stop anywhere.

Please obey all local Covid restrictions, ordinances, and mandates. I know it feels like so many of them have been politicized, but they are there for a reason. Many state and national parks have their own restrictions as well. You will likely be fined if you violate restrictions on state or federal land.

Finally, don’t forget to plan for any hazards you would normally encounter during non-COVID times. Many of these destinations can close unexpectedly due to snow and ice in the winter. Speaking of which, know the tire chain requirements for any states you’ll be traveling through. Carry chains with you and know how to chain up yourself if you’re expecting to be in snow country. If you have any doubts, it’s probably best to stay home.

Now, let’s kick those Covid blues and put your mental health on the fast track to happiness.

1. Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument – Arizona

The Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument sits on the US-Mexico border at the south end of Arizona’s Highway 85. It is the only place in the United States to see the rare organ pipe cactus. While the cactus itself is fairly common south of the border, even the mild winters in Arizona’s low deserts have proven to be too cold for it.

The national monument is also home to an incredible diversity of rare species of flora, fauna, and surprisingly, fish. The Quitobaquito Oasis is home to species of fish that cannot be found anywhere else in the world. The rarest of all is the Sonoyta pupfish. Named for the Mexican town that sits across the border from the monument, Quitobaquito is the only known place in the world that they inhabit.

Note: The access roads to Quitobaquito and Dos Lomitas Ranch are currently closed due to construction of new border fencing.

You’ll find the best photo ops along the Ajo Mountain drive. The 33 km (21 mi) guided tour starts across Highway 85 from the Visitors Center. Along the way, you’ll stop and see the best of what the Sonoran Desert has to offer. If you’re looking to get off the beaten path a little more, consider the North Puerto Blanco Drive. It starts from behind the Visitors Center, but beware that you’ll need a high clearance 4×4 to tackle it.

2. Pacific Coast Highway – Oregon and California

Is there any better feeling than the freedom of a drive up the coast? The fresh ocean air is bound to give anyone’s mental health a shot in the arm. In the age of Covid, keep your stops away from towns and population centers. Find a quiet pull-out at the top of a bluff, and enjoy that nice picnic lunch that you brought from home as you watch the world go by.

3. Burr Trail – Utah

The Burr Trail winds over 120 km (76 mi) through the guts of Utah’s breathtaking backcountry. Starting in the town of Boulder, you’ll pass through the Grand Staircase – Escalante National Monument, Capitol Reef National Park, and the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area.

Drive through beautiful canyons, across stunning mesas, and descend the infamous Burr Trail Switchbacks, which drop close to 1,000 feet elevation in just 1 mile. At a 13% grade on a narrow dirt track, the switchbacks satisfy the hunger of even the most adventurous. You’ll quickly see why it’s rated one of the most scenic drives in Utah and the ultimate exercise in social distancing.

4. Palo Duro Canyon – Texas

Known as the Grand Canyon’s Little Brother, Palo Duro Canyon is the second largest canyon in the United States. Meaning “strong wood” in Spanish, Palo Duro Canyon offers outdoor activities for everyone, including hiking, mountain biking, and horseback riding. The entrance to the state park is a short drive south of Amarillo on Interstate 27. And unlike the Grand Canyon, you can actually drive the bottom of Palo Duro Canyon in a normal passenger car.

You’ll get plenty of great photo opportunities from both the rim and the bottom of the canyon. I recommend arriving close to either sunrise or sunset in order to take advantage of soft, low light on the canyon’s walls. Snap some pictures from the lookouts near the Visitors’ Center before starting your descent into the canyon.

5. Great Salt Plains – Oklahoma

Take a journey back in time at Oklahoma’s Great Salt Plains. The salt pan is a remnant of prehistoric times, when a vast ocean covered what is now Oklahoma. In the summertime, you can venture out on the salt flats and dig for selenite crystals. The Great Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge is the only place in the world where you’ll find hourglass-shaped selenite crystals.

Fast-forward to today, and you’ll find a state park, a national wildlife refuge, and a large lake. The Great Salt Plains are a great spot to go hiking, swimming, and boating. However, my favorite activity is to take the quiet and tranquil scenic drive through the salt marshes off of Highway 11. You’ll truly be at one with your camera and with nature. If you’re there at the right time of year, Oklahoma is a popular stop along a major bald eagle migration route, too.

6. Apache Trail – Arizona

Take breathtaking drive through the rugged terrain of Arizona’s Superstition Mountains. Originally built as a stagecoach road in the early 20th century, the Apache Trail was named after the Apache Indians who used this same route to cross the mountains. Today, it is Arizona’s State Route 88, an easy day trip from Phoenix.

Much of the Apache Trail is unpaved, but passable in a standard passenger car. There are several steep, narrow hills and one-lane bridges. My best advice to you is that if you don’t like heights, don’t look down. When you reach the end of the trail, you’ll be rewarded with spectacular views of Theodore Roosevelt Lake.

7. Death Valley’s Badwater Backcountry – California

You don’t appreciate exactly how extreme an environment Death Valley is until you travel through its backcountry. Head west out of Pahrump, Nevada, and follow California Highways 178, 127, and 190. You’ll wind up in the heart of Death Valley National Park in the aptly-named town of Furnace Creek, California. Furnace Creek measured the world-record high temperature of 134°F (57°C) on 10 July, 1913. You’ll also pass through Badwater Basin, which marks the lowest point in the United States, at 86 meters (282 ft) below sea level.

Before setting out, please know what you’re getting yourself into. You will be driving through some of the most remote, desolate backcountry in the world. There will be times that you’re more than 120 km (75 mi) from the nearest town.

Gas up before you leave Pahrump, as it could be over 320 km (200 mi) before you see another gas station. Stay hydrated, as dehydration and heat exhaustion are possible even in the winter. And if you break down? You better know how to fix it or have a satellite phone. There is no cell service inside Death Valley National Park, and seeing other cars in the backcountry is extremely rare.

8. White Sands National Park – New Mexico

Home to the world’s largest gypsum dunefield, White Sands is a true natural wonder. Sitting just outside of Alamogordo, New Mexico, it’s one of the only National Parks that is very slowly moving downwind.

Are you wondering what exactly gypsum is? It looks like salt, and feels like sand, but is in fact neither of them. Gypsum is a soft mineral composed mainly of calcium sulfate. In fact, the “sand” at White Sands National Park is soluble in water. If you put a handful of it into a glass of water, it will dissolve.

9. Antelope Hills – Oklahoma

The Antelope Hills are a small, but important landmark in the history of both Oklahoma and the United States as a whole. In addition to marking the westernmost point settlers could claim in Oklahoma during the land rush of the 1800s, it also marked the US-Mexico border.

At the time, it separated the United States’ Indian Territory from Mexico’s Alta California territory. Alta California was mostly comprised of what is currently Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. The United States acquired the territory as part of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, which ended the Mexican-American War in 1848.

The dirt road to the Antelope Hills is passable in a standard passenger car and is generally void of other traffic. However, be aware that 18-wheelers sometimes use it as a shortcut to access a nearby oil rig, so the road can be extremely washboarded at times. If you’re in the area, I encourage you to visit the nearby Black Kettle National Grassland and the Washita Battlefield National Historic Site.

10. Lee’s Ferry and Marble Canyon – Arizona

If you’re looking to avoid crowds at the Grand Canyon, make a stop near Page at Lee’s Ferry and Marble Canyon. Sitting just outside the boundaries of Grand Canyon National Park, there is plenty of space to keep yourself socially-distanced from the few other people that may be there.

Pull up a chair on the beach and stick your feet in the water to cool off. Have a picnic, read a book, or just relax and enjoy the solitude. If you’re feeling exceptionally brave, take a swim. Lee’s Ferry is only a few miles downstream of the Glen Canyon Dam, so water temperature usually top out around 45°F (7°C), even in the dead of summer.

As you leave Lee’s Ferry, stop for a few photos at the Navajo Bridge. The foot bridge provides stunning views of Marble Canyon from 500 feet above the Colorado River. Be aware that the bridge can occasionally be crowded, though large crowds are mostly a summer phenomenon.

11. Scenic Highway 12 – Utah

Utah’s Scenic Highway 12 is probably the most spectacular drive I’ve ever taken. It’s well-deserving of its distinction as an All-American Road. You’ll see the stunning rock formations near Zion National Park, the famous hoodoos of Bryce Canyon, majestic mountains, lush forests, and much more.

If Scenic Highway 12 leaves you craving more, the highway provides easy access to Zion National Park, Bryce Canyon National Park, the Burr Trail, Capitol Reef National Park, and Utah’s Scenic Highway 95. Do you have a 4×4 and a stronger quest for adventure? Many of Utah’s famous scenic backways, including Hell’s Backbone and Hole-in-the-Rock, can be found right off of Highway 12.

12. US-395 – California

Many travel guides properly designate US-395 in California as an All-American Road Trip. Running along the base of the Sierra Nevada Mountains from Ridgecrest to Lake Tahoe, there is no shortage of beautiful scenery.

After starting on the valley floor, you’ll pass through deserts, grasslands, and pine forests as you ascend to nearly 2,500 meters (8,200 feet) elevation at Conway Summit. For more than just a driving trip, US-395 offers plenty of side excursions. Turn off and explore the Alabama Hills, Inyo or Stanislaus National Forests, or one of the roads to the many ski resorts along the way.

In the wintertime, please check the road conditions for every road you plan to explore in this area. The Sierra Nevada are notorious for their massive snowstorms, which often strike fast and hard. As a result, many roads close in the winter, and you don’t want to get cut-off or stranded.

Additionally, I also recommend you carry tire chains at all times during the winter months. California requires them for most vehicles when it snows in the Sierra. If you have any doubts about snow, consider driving US-95 as an alternate. It runs parallel to US-395 on the Nevada side of the state line at a much lower elevation. It’s not quite as scenic, but it sure beats sitting around at home.

13. Gloss Mountain State Park – Oklahoma

Don’t let the fact that it’s less than 1 square mile fool you. Gloss Mountain State Park packs a punch for its small size. Take the short hike to the top of the escarpment for spectacular 360-degree views of the surrounding prairie. It’s an incredible spot to watch the sunset. Alternatively, find a quiet spot to have a picnic, ponder your thoughts, or meditate.

When you’re done, drive the Gloss Mountain Loop. The dirt track loop is part of Oklahoma’s Great Plains Trail system. While not part of the state park, it offers a unique perspective of the surrounding area, and plenty of good photo ops. You’ll probably meet a few friendly cows along the way, too.

14. Mogollon Rim – Arizona

I can only describe the Mogollon Rim as a therapeutic escape. At nearly 8,000 feet (2,200) meters above sea level, I have always used it to escape Phoenix’s scorching summer heat. There’s something truly magical when you feel the cool summer breezes through the ponderosa pines. Using that logic, it would make a great escape from Covid life as well.

The Mogollon Rim Road, Forest Road 300, runs about 75 km (45 mi) right along the edge of the rim. It passes through the Coconino and Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests, offering an incredible diversity of viewpoints and photo ops. Find a quiet spot with a great view at one of the many turnouts along the Rim Road or head over to one of the area’s many lakes and fully immerse yourself in your escape.

Note: The Mogollon Rim Road closes for the winter after the first major snowfall and usually re-opens sometime in April.

15. Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge – Oklahoma

The Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge was one of my go-to getaways when I lived in Oklahoma. Start your day with a drive up Mt. Scott for a bird’s eye overview of the refuge. At 2,500 feet (760 meters) above sea level, the summit of Mt. Scott is the highest point in the main body of Oklahoma. From the top, you’ll get a breathtaking 360 degree view of the wildlife refuge, the Wichita Mountains, and nearby towns.

Next, make your way through the wildlife refuge on State Highway 49. Stop at any of the lakes, information stations, or pullouts. You’ll often see buffalo and longhorn cattle roaming the grasslands. There is never a shortage of wildlife for bird watchers, especially during the bald eagle migrations through Oklahoma. Additionally, keep an eye out for prairie dogs peeking out from their burrows.

If you still have some time, visit Great Plains State Park and Quartz Mountain State Park. Both are located just west of the Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge. They highlight the true diversity of the landscapes across southwestern Oklahoma. You’ll see much of the same wildlife and achieve the same rewarding escape.

Conclusion

I can’t stress enough the importance of taking care of your mental health during this Covid winter. There will be dark days, as well as times that feel hopeless. Having an outlet to give you a temporary escape from reality and put a smile back on your face is one of the best decisions you can make for yourself.

Top Photo: Gorgeous Landscapes at the Rainbow Point Overlook
Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah – May, 2017

The post 15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Western United States appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Panicking only leads to making poor decisions, which in the context of storm chasing, can lead to injury and even death. You can read about my hairiest storm chasing moments, such as the time I got caught in five and a half inch diameter hail and the time a cluster of three tornadic supercells tried to merge right on top of me and cut off my only route home. Had panic set in, the outcome may have been different. My point here is that the same concept applies with the coronavirus pandemic. No matter how good or how bad things look, the best time to panic is never.

It’s Like Having the Check Engine Light Come On in Your Car

Earlier this week, the Arizona Republic used a very apt metaphor do describe the current situation: it’s like having the check engine light come on in your car. It’s telling you something is wrong and should be investigated as soon as possible, but is certainly not a reason to pull over right away and call a tow truck. Nor is it a reason to put a piece of black tape over the light.

Let’s have a look at 5 states that have made a lot of coronavirus headlines recently: Arizona, California, Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas. All of them except for California have been setting new daily case and hospitalization records left, right, and center over the past two to three weeks. We’ll look at the current and past data, as well as what to expect over the next month or so.

How Has the COVID-19 Model Performed?

Before we begin, I want to make one final point about the COVID-19 models. No matter what you are modeling, the accuracy of the predictions diminishes significantly the further out in time you go. For example, do you know how often models that are used to make our day-to-day weather forecasts are correct when they make predictions more than about 5 to 7 days out? Less than 10% of the time. You see the same phenomenon in the coronavirus models, just with a slightly different timeframe.

My coronavirus model is run twice per week and makes two predictions for 56 states and provinces in the US and Canada:

• Case counts 2 weeks from the date of the model run
• Case counts 1 month from the date of the model run

Have any guesses as to how it’s been performing since early May?

That’s a pretty stark difference. The incorrect predictions are often pretty close, but a miss is still a miss. Also, the model has underestimated over 99% of the incorrect predictions it has made since early May. In other words, when the model was wrong, the actual case count was higher than what the model predicted, which is to be expected during a COVID-19 spike. Please keep this in mind when viewing model projections in this post. You can view the full details of how the model is performing on my COVID-19 Dashboard.

All plots and maps below contain data through Thursday, 18 June, 2020.

General Overview

Before we dive into each individual state, let’s look at a general overview of how the five states stack up against each other. Click on any plot or map to enlarge it.

First, a map showing the change in new cases over the past 14 days:

And now, the time series plots. The new daily cases are a 7-day moving average.

Arizona

Arizona continues to be one of my biggest concerns, for reasons beyond just the fact that I live there. You can pretty easily trace the spike in case back to the state’s Stay-at-Home Order expiring on May 15th. I’ll let you decide for yourself whether or not the state opened too early.

Both hospital bed use and percent of positive PCR tests (the tests that say you currently have the virus) have been setting record highs routinely over the past week and half or so. Take a look at these numbers, direct from the Arizona Department of Health Services website.

The hospitalization statistics and percentage of positive of PCR tests are they key metrics to watch not just in Arizona, but in all of the states we’re looking at today.

Now, while those numbers look grim, there are a few glimmers of hope. First, look at this chart of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day. Full disclosure, though, I have heard numerous unconfirmed reports that this chart is missing data for the past week or so, and especially for the past few days.

However, I do have reason to believe that this chart is at least partially true. Look at the charts above showing the hospital beds and ICU beds in use. While they’re certainly not leveling off, the rate of increase in bed use is slowly starting to slow down. A couple days ago, Governor Doug Ducey also gave mayors the power to require face masks in public (many cities in Arizona and Maricopa County now require masks), which will also help slow the spread of the virus and dampen the spike.

Will Arizona Become the New Epicenter?

So, what should we expect going forward? Let’s look into the crystal ball and see what the model says. Don’t forget that while I ran the model out to the first of September, the accuracy of its forecasts drops significantly after the 4th of July.

My personal prediction is that while there is potential for Arizona to become the new epicenter, I think the chances of that actually happening are pretty low. I also think with face mask mandates going into effect, the chances of having to go back into a statewide lockdown or stay at home situation are low. However, should hospitals get overwhelmed, all bets are off.

California

California is an interesting beast to tame on the COVID front, mainly due to its large size and its large population. At first glance, the chart of new cases doesn’t really show anything that jumps off the page at you. Instead, it just shows a steady increase in daily new cases over time.

What’s happening in California right now is actually a microcosm of what’s happening in the United States right now. Different parts of the state are peaking at different times as the epicenter moves around the state. Back in March and April, the San Francisco Bay Area bore the brunt of the COVID outbreak, while the epicenter has now shifted to southern California, primarily in the greater Los Angeles area. Here are the latest county-by-county data from this morning.

One very interesting observation: Los Angeles County currently has 47% of the California’s entire cases.

What is the model saying?

With the exception of LA County, I’m not too worried about California as whole right now. The spike you keep hearing about on the news is primarily contained to LA County and the surrounding areas, with smaller outbreaks happening in places like Fresno and the San Juaquin valley.

That being said, LA County is the most populated county in the US, so it must continue to be closely watched, especially if hospitals continue to be stretched. The whole Los Angeles area needs to we closely monitored. Governor Gavin Newsom just required masks to be worn in public statewide, but how much of an effect that has remains to be seen because many of California’s cities, including LA and many of its suburbs, already had local ordinances requiring them.

Looking into the crystal ball, I would expect the state’s steady increase to continue as the epicenter moves around the state, which will effectively cancel out the decrease in cases in other parts of the state. The model shows cases starting to level out once we get into July, but we’ll have to wait and see what happens. It’s shown that before for California and was wrong.

Florida

Oh, Florida. What are we going to do with you? You seem hell-bent on just putting the piece of black tape over the check engine light and continuing on your merry way. It’s been all over the news that Florida could be the next epicenter of COVID-19. However, note that all the reports and news headlines use the word “could”, not “will”. You can still avoid becoming the next epicenter.

According to the State of Florida’s own COVID-19 dashboard, only 1 of its 68 counties meet the criteria to enter the next phase of reopening. The one county that does meet those requirements is Liberty County, which sits in a rural part of the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee.

The state’s dashboard also gives each county a letter grade for how well they are social distancing. Only 4 out of 68 counties graded higher than a C-, and all 4 of those counties got a C. If you’re looking to slow the transmission rate down, that’s where I would start. For a state that has openly admitted to doctoring its data, these numbers are pretty pathetic.

Not surprisingly, cases are exploding in cities across the state.

What’s going on in Florida hospitals?

The state’s dashboard doesn’t have a whole lot of useful information about hospitalizations, but it shows that there are 1,395 available ICU beds throughout the state. I have no idea what percentage of total ICU beds that is.

Now, there is a glimmer of hope that does come with a big “but”. The number of daily new deaths in Florida is actually going down right now…

…BUT, if you look closely at the new cases plot, you will notice that the spike in cases started at Day 80, which was 16 days ago (today is Day 96). Unfortunately, when you have an increase in cases, the increase in deaths usually lags the increase in cases by two to four weeks, which means that it’s likely coming and just hasn’t gotten here yet.

If we look into the crystal ball, here is the model’s best prediction of what’s to come. Please take note that if the state and its residents continue to do nothing about the outbreak, there will be a significant COVID-19 spike with many more cases than what the model is forecasting.

Remember, Florida, it’s not too late to do something about this. Be smart, use common sense, and don’t become the next Florida Man.

Oklahoma

This is another interesting case. Oklahoma’s numbers throughout the pandemic have been lower than the rest of the country, likely due to the lack of major population centers. However, I get the feeling that if the President wasn’t having a campaign rally in Tulsa tomorrow, there would likely be very little, if any, mention of Oklahoma’s coronavirus case numbers on the national news.

Yes, it’s true that new cases have ticked up and are at record highs, and I’m not trying to downplay this, but even these record numbers of new cases are an order of magnitude less what Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas are all seeing. Case counts are currently low enough that there is very little threat to the health care system being overwhelmed.

If we break things down by county, you will find that most of the state’s cases are clustered around the two major population centers: Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

An Interesting Twist that Could Seed COVID-19 Spread

Now, tomorrow’s presidential campaign rally in Tulsa is where things start to get tricky. Tulsa County currently has the highest case count in the state (2,070 confirmed cases), which account for just under one out of every four cases in the state.

The combination of the spike in COVID-19 cases with a large indoor gathering of people coming from all over the country has the potential to be a super-spreader event and seed outbreaks in other parts of the country, but it is not going to turn Oklahoma in to a coronavirus epicenter. It’s not a sure thing that it will be a super-spreader event, either, but it certainly has the potential to be. Attendees taking proper precautions is critical to keeping the super-spreader risk as low as possible.

A model that CNN ran showed that the rally could cause up to 1,000 new cases. That alone may not sound like very much, but once people go back to the various corners of the country from where they came and spreading it to friends, family, etc., that 1,000 cases can turn into a very big number very quickly. Keep that in mind whenever you’re out in public.

So what’s in store for Oklahoma? Here’s the model run, but keep in mind that it does not account for any effects of the presidential rally in Tulsa tomorrow night. If this forecast verifies, there should not be any issues with overwhelming the health care system. Residents should take the spike in COVID-19 cases seriously and be smart about taking precautions when out in public.

Texas

The Lone Star State seemed like they were trying really hard to put the black tape over the check engine light, but finally realized that doing so was a bad idea. This week, Governor Greg Abbott gave mayors the power to require masks in public. Like Arizona, many cities in Texas now require them, which I expect will slow the spike in COVID-19 cases.

While California was a microcosm of the United States, with its epicenter moving around the state, Texas is not seeing that same phenomenon. Most of Texas’ major population centers are seeing the same uptick in cases all at once.

The one big exception to that rule is Amarillo, which saw a major outbreak at a meat processing plant back in May. The city put restrictions into place to curb that outbreak that were much more severe than the rest of the state, and it shows. The COVID-19 spike the rest of the state is experiencing is largely absent from Potter County data.

Hospital Statistics in Texas

Hospitalizations are definitely trending up in Texas, and hospitals are currently 77% full, compared to 84% full in Arizona. The hospitalization data should be watched closely over the next month to six weeks. Hopefully the mask mandates will be able to keep the hospitals from having to activate their emergency or surge plans.

The good news is that if the model prediction verifies, Texas should have a pretty good chance at preventing its healthcare system from being overwhelmed, especially once the mask mandates go into effect. The big question will be when will the daily new cases start to turn the corner on the new daily cases plot. The longer it takes, the bumpier of a ride it’s going to be.

Wrapping It All Up

Whew, that was a lot of data that we covered today. Yes, that was a lot of data we absorbed, and it certainly can look pretty bad in all five states. The good news is that even if you don’t live in any of these states, we can all do our part to slow the spike by not panicking, being smart about when and how we go out and interact in public, and using common sense. Don’t wait around for your mayor, county, or governor to issue mandates. Act now. The sooner we slow the spread and bend the curve down, the sooner we can get back to our normal lives.

Top Photo: Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona – January, 2019

The post COVID-19 Spikes in Arizona, Florida, Texas, and More: How Concerned Should We Be? appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I only ran the models out until early May because we need to focus on what’s going to happen in the next two to three weeks, not what’s going to be happening several months in the future. Additionally, model forecasts get less accurate the further into the future you go. This run assumes current social distancing restrictions remain in place through mid-May and does not account for any additional surges or waves of the virus that may occur later this spring, this summer, or this fall.

Don’t forget, you can always get more information about the model and view detailed case data on my COVID-19 Dashboard. Additionally, I will write up a separate post about the mathematics, equations, and methodologies used in my coronavirus model, which I’m hoping to get posted in the next day or two. Stay tuned for additional discussions about each hot zone as more data comes in.

Alberta

Arizona

British Columbia

California

Connecticut

Florida

Georgia

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

Oklahoma

Ontario

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Québec

Rhode Island

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

U.S. Virgin Islands

Washington (State)

After several requests, I updated this post on 16 April, 2020 to include additional states and provinces, bringing the total to 26 plots instead of 24.

Top Photo: Palo Duro Canyon State Park – Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post A Look at the Best-Fit COVID-19 Model Curves for 24 Key States and Provinces appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Overview of SIR Model Output

Each city has four plots. The top row is the “working” model output, with the model curve best fit to the actual data. The bottom row is an experimental model output showing the effect of social distancing. In the “working” model runs on the top row, there are 5 lines on each plot. The middle line is the R Naught value that was reverse-engineered by fitting the model output to the actual data, and there are two lines on each side of the best-fit line showing different R Naught values in steps of 0.2.

Note: The y-axis on some of the experimental social distancing plots showing the total case count (bottom right plot for each city) is mislabeled. It should read “Total Cases”, not “Number of Infected”.

Finally, don’t forget that the plots below assume the R Naught values and the amount of social distancing remains constant throughout the entire time series. In reality, additional social distancing restrictions will dampen the curve and shift it to the right, while removing social distancing restrictions will cause the curve to accelerate and shift to the left.

Confidence in SIR Model Predictions

My confidence level in the “working”/top row model outputs is as follows:

• Predicting the apex of the outbreak: medium-high to high. The curves should at least be “in the ballpark.”
• Predicting the total number of cases: low to very low. With how fast things are changing right now and how fast new data is coming in, we just don’t know at this point. My gut feeling is that the case count projections in these model runs are likely high overall, but from a public health perspective, I would much rather have the model overestimate case counts than underestimate them.

Plots are in alphabetical order by city, with a table of additional cities at the bottom. Click on any plot to view it full size.

Boston, Massachusetts

Chicago, Illinois

Detroit, Michigan

Los Angeles, California

Montréal, Québec

New Orleans, Louisiana

New York, New York

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Ottawa, Ontario

Portland, Oregon

Phoenix, Arizona

San Francisco, California

Tampa, Florida

Toronto, Ontario

SIR Model Outputs for Additional Cities

Please note that this table contains outputs of just this single model run and does not necessarily reflect what my actual predictions are. I will be putting this table on my COVID-19 Pandemic Tracker later this week and regularly updating it there.

Data points I’m skeptical of in this output (with some comments):

• Chicago, IL: Case count is likely overestimated. I’m not sure why, but the most likely reason is good social distancing.
• Los Angeles, CA: Case count is likely overestimated due to California being better at social distancing than what was input into the model
• Seattle, WA: Peak date is incorrect due to the State of Washington’s 100th case occurring before John’s Hopkins began breaking down data by state.
• Washington, DC: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve
• Winnipeg, MB: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve

The post Complete Revised SIR Model Forecasts (8 April): USA and Canada appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

You can say the same thing about the COVID-19 pandemic. We all have a job to do to beat this thing. Every single one of us. Please use common sense, stay informed, and heed the warnings, guidance, and orders from your local, state, and federal government. Just like Hurricane and Tornado Warnings, there is a reason they are issuing warnings right now. Let’s have a look at why.

A New Type of Model: The SIR Model

Last week, we took a look at modeling the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States using Gaussian functions. Gaussian functions are also known as bell curves. Not surprisingly, there are more accurate ways to model a pandemic like this than with bell curves. Today, we are going to look at different scenarios using the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Resistant) model. The SIR model is a simple model that uses a system of three differential equations to specifically model disease outbreaks.

The relationship between the equations is:

Getting into how to solve the differential equations is a discussion for another time. In English, the equations and variables describe:

• S(t) – The number of susceptible people (people who have not yet contracted the disease) over time
• I(t) – The number of infected people (people who are currently sick) over time
• R(t) – The number of resistant people (people who have either recovered or died) over time. The model assumes that recovered people cannot get sick a second time.
  • Note: In the model outputs below, I have broken R(t) down into recovered and dead.
• β – controls how often a susceptible-infected contact results in a new infection
• γ – The rate an infected person recovers and moves into the resistant phase

Introduction to R Naught

Now, you’re probably wondering where the “R naught” parameter comes in. R naught, denoted as R0, is the reproduction number. It is just a fancy way to say the average number of susceptible people to which an infected person spreads the disease. For example, if R naught is 3, it means that one infected person spreads the disease to an average of 3 other people over the course of their illness. We’ll define R naught as:

R0 = β / γ

Now, before we jump into the model, let’s have a look at the model inputs. Within the model, we need to define the population N. The population of the United States is about 330 million. We also need to define the average duration of infection, which according to the CDC is about 14 days. The initial conditions for each equation [S(t), I(t), and R(t)] were set so the numbers mirror the actual data of the outbreak in the United States so far.

The only input to the model is the R naught parameter. While we will be running the model for different scenarios, we’ll start with what the US Federal Government currently defines for R naught: R0 = 2.3. Keep in mind that these figures assume R0 is constant, while in the real world R0 is changing constantly.

A Few Short-Term SIR Model Predictions for the United States

First, a couple of short-term predictions from the SIR model, again assuming a constant R0.

Before we plot everything out over the course of the pandemic, I need to point out a few very important things:

• The plot (and the above plots) assumes R0 stays constant at 2.3. In the real world, R0 is constantly changing.
• Because R0 stays constant, it means that this scenario does not account for preventative measures, such as restrictions on large crowds, restaurant and bar closings, travel bans, and shelter-in-place orders.
• This is a worst-case scenario and the odds of this actually playing out are very slim.

Flattening the Curve

Flattening the curve. You hear it all over the news. What does it mean? If you leave the virus unchecked, it will grow exponentially and quickly overwhelm the hospital system when all of the sick patients show up at once. Instead, health authorities want to slow down the rate the disease is spreading and spread the sick patients out over time so hospitals can handle the volume of patients.

So how do we slow down the rate the disease is spreading? Simply lower the value of R naught. Okay, in the real world it’s quite a bit more complicated. Federal, state, and local governments across the country are putting measures in place to slow down the spread of the virus and reduce R naught, which may include:

• Bans on large gatherings
• Quarantines and Self-Isolation
• Closing of schools, restaurants, bars, museums, and other public places where people tend to gather
• Cancellations of Events
• Closing Borders and Travel Bans
• Shelter In Place Orders and Lockdowns

Still don’t believe me that flattening the curve works? Have a look at the following figure. I ran the SIR model several times with identical parameters, only varying the R naught values. Like the above examples, R naught remains constant for each run. These are just hypothetical scenarios and are not any kind of indication that anything like this will actually play out in the real world.

By reducing the R0 value from 2.6 down to 1.6, the number of infected people at the peak of the outbreak drops from 80 million down to about 25 million. For those of you that are mathematically challenged, that’s about 2/3, or 67% fewer infected people at the peak of the outbreak.

Modeling the Changing R Naught Values

The easiest way to model the changing R naught values is to use piecewise functions to solve the differential equations. That just means we will assign different values of R naught for different values of time (t in the differential equations at the top of this post). If you’ve ever done numerical analysis or numerical integration, you’ve probably come across piecewise functions at some point, but that’s a discussion for another day.

So how does this all translate to the real world? Consider a scenario that we’ve seen in a lot of countries so far in this pandemic. The virus spreads undetected within the community at the start of the outbreak. Then, federal, state, and local authorities put increasingly restrictive measures into place. Restrictions start with bans on large gatherings. They then escalate to closing down restaurants, bars, and other public places. Finally, officials order a mandatory shelter-in-place or lockdown.

To illustrate this visually, I modeled a hypothetical scenario where the virus starts with R0 = 2.3. It spreads undetected for about 45 days at the onset of the outbreak. The government orders restrictions, scaling down R Naught until the issuance of a shelter-in-place order. In this scenario, it takes about a month to go from issuing the first restriction to a full lockdown. In the real world, the restrictions are implemented much faster than that. For example, it took Italy 12 days to go from just a handful of cases to the entire country under lockdown. It took Spain 9 days to do the same.

Looking at the Real World

This is where it gets tricky. Because the United States is so big and diverse, let’s look at ten major cities instead. Different states, counties, and cities have enacted different bans to combat the virus, making it nearly impossible to accurately use this model at a national level. For example, the shelter-in-place that was just issued for the San Francisco Bay area is not going to affect what’s going on in Seattle, Chicago, or New York.

A Few Things to Keep in Mind

• These models consider the population of each metro area, which include the main city plus all of its suburbs.
• The R0 values on the plots are fixed for each run. In the real world, the R0 values will start high and then drop as restrictions are enacted.
• The high number of undetected or asymptomatic cases will help keep the R0 value of COVID-19 high.
• The “Peak” label in the legends refers to the number of infected people at the peak of the outbreak for that scenario.
• You want to focus on the number of infected people at the peak of each scenario. Do not worry about the exact dates of the peaks of the outbreaks.
  • As you look at those peak values, think of how you can help with social distancing to reduce R0.
• The current R0 value of the coronavirus in the United States is about 2.3, according to the federal government. That means that every infected person spreads the disease to an average of 2.3 other people. For comparison, the seasonal flu has an R0 value of 1.3.
• I don’t know what the hospital capacity is in each city, but for reference New York State (read: the whole state, not just NYC) has 54,000 hospital beds and 3,100 ICU beds.
• When the city of Wuhan, China enacted their total lockdown in January, the R0 value dropped from 2.35 to 1.05 in less than a week. You won’t see R0 drops this drastic in the United States. However, the goal to get R0 as low as possible remains the same.

SIR Model Outputs for Several US Cities

Conclusion

For this pandemic, I will say the same thing I say before just about every major weather disaster. Please heed your local, state, and federal government’s warnings. I can’t stress this enough. In a weather disaster, you’re only putting your own life at stake by being stupid. In a pandemic, you’re putting the lives of every one else who’s around you at stake as well.

I understand we are a society that rewards stupidity. If we all work together, there is still time to slow this thing down, but that window will slam shut in just a matter of a few days. All quarantining yourself from knowledge and common sense does is keep that critical R0 value high and put more lives at risk. I’ll leave you with one final plot of COVID-19 data comparing the US cases to Italy’s. This is actual data and is not generated by any models. Stay tuned for more updates.

The post America, Please Don’t Quarantine Yourself From Knowledge appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

GOES Satellite Image – Friday at 6:30 AM CST/4:30 AM PST

Storm Brings Much-Needed Rain to Drought-Stricken California

The best news is that this storm will bring some much-needed rain to the areas in California that have been hit so hard by drought this winter. May areas from the Central Valley area all the way down the Interstate 5 corridor to the Mexican border could see up to 2 inches of rain. Temperatures in the valleys and at the coast will be in the 40s and 50s, so winter weather is not a threat at the lower elevations. Unfortunately, whenever you get a large amount of rain falling over a drought-stricken area in a short period of time, flash flooding and landslides will be a concern, especially in areas recently impacted by wildfires.

Conditions up in the mountains will be a vastly different story. Strong winds and heavy snow will create dangerous conditions across the Sierra Nevadas to the south and southeast of Lake Tahoe, including Yosemite National Park and Mammoth Lakes. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for much of these areas above 6,000 feet until 4 PM PST Saturday. With wind gusts up to 80 mph possible and and snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches possible, it would not surprise me if this was upgraded to a Blizzard Warning later on. Further to the south where snow is less of a threat, a High Wind Warning is in effect for the Kern County Mountains and the Interstate 5 corridor through The Grapevine until 4 PM PST today. South winds of 30-50 mph with gusts to 90 mph are possible.

GFS Forecast Rainfall/Liquid Equivalent Through 4 AM PST Sunday

What Lies Ahead for this Storm After California

Like many of these storms, it will weaken as it crosses the Rocky Mountains and its supply of moisture is cut off. As it ejects over the southern plains, it will interact with an Arctic airmass plunging southbound out of Canada. As a result, it will bring light winter precipitation (snow, sleet, and freezing rain) and a cold rain to parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and north Texas. In Oklahoma, freezing rain and sleet will be the primary modes of precipitation, with up to 1/10 of an inch of ice accumulations possible with locally higher totals, especially across eastern Oklahoma. Heavier snow totals will be possible up in Kansas, with mainly rain to the south down in Texas.

The storm will continue to move to the ENE once it crosses the central and southern plains. The exact location, timing, and intensity of the storm once it reaches the east coast is still very much up in the air, so stay tuned. Right now, there is the potential for heavy snow near the east coast, but it appears to be confined to a fairly localized area if it does indeed happen. The models should be able to get a much better grip on the storm once it comes ashore and the Weather Service can get accurate data from inside of it.

The post Beautiful and Impressive Storm Coming Ashore in California appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.