1. A country announces they have discovered a new variant
2. Experts speculate that this is the variant that will evade vaccines
3. Everyone freaks out and panics for a few weeks
4. Data proves that vaccines still provide adequate protection against the variant
5. You see a wave of the variant sweep through many countries
6. Life goes on

With the omicron variant of COVID, most countries are currently in the early stages of step 5. However, there are still two big unknowns: how big will the wave be, and how quickly will it surge?

The Omicron Surge Will Resemble the COVID Spike in India From the Delta Variant

Remember how highly contagious the Delta Variant is? As you can probably guess, the Omicron Variant must be significantly more contagious in order to out-compete Delta. And initial data shows that it is. As a result, Omicron will spread much faster, making the spike taller. But there’s a silver lining: it will come and go quickly. Think of it coming through like a tornado instead of a hurricane. Recall the COVID spike in India from the Delta Variant.

Because Omicron is more contagious than Delta, that spike will be taller, but last shorter. And don’t forget to account for population. With nearly 1.4 billion people, India is the second most populous country in the world. Smaller populations in just about every other country will result in both a shorter and less severe spike. In an Omicron wave, the United States is the only country that has the potential to come anywhere remotely close to the 400,000 daily cases that India saw in their Delta spike. And I think even that is highly unlikely.

COVID Cases from the Omicron Variant Have Already Peaked in Some Countries

Yes, you read that right. The Omicron wave has already peaked in some countries. After South Africa first identified Omicron in late November, health officials quickly contact traced cases back to both Germany and the Netherlands. And guess what? New Omicron cases are now falling in all three countries.

Omicron has obviously spread far beyond those three countries. However, I expect any Omicron surges in other countries will resemble the time series above.

A Word of Caution About South Africa’s Demographics

South Africa has one of the most advanced and sophisticated health science programs in the world. There is nothing wrong with data coming out of South Africa. In fact, I trust their data 100%. The issue lies primarily in South Africa’s age demographics, which heavily skew towards younger people. Just 5.5% of South Africans are over 65. That’s a stark contrast to 17% in the United States, 16% in Canada, and 21% in the European Union. That’s why health officials originally cautioned about reports of omicron in South Africa being primarily mild. Thankfully, data from the European Union seems to confirm that omicron is less severe than Delta.

Additionally, don’t forget that South Africa’s location in the Southern Hemisphere means that they are heading into summer right now. Omicron is so contagious that summer vs winter may not make any significant difference anymore. However, data since the start of the pandemic has repeatedly shown that surges are worse in the winter season, regardless of which hemisphere you live in.

I Believe the Omicron Variant Originated in Europe, Not Africa

Just because South Africa discovered the Omicron variant doesn’t necessarily mean that it originated there. And after looking at the data, I believe that Omicron actually originated in Europe and was then brought to South Africa, not the other way around.

First, let’s recall the new daily COVID cases from Germany, the Netherlands, and South Africa we just looked at in the previous section.

What jumps out at me right away? The slope of the upward side of the omicron spike in late 2021 is identical in all three countries. While it’s not definitive proof, it’s likely that the same variant caused all three surges. And we know for certain that Omicron caused the surge in South Africa. In addition, Notice how the spike starts earlier in both Germany (black) and the Netherlands (red) earlier than it does in South Africa (green). We’ll circle back to this in a sec.

Second, look at how Omicron spread in South Africa. The first clusters emerged in Gauteng Province, which is mostly comprised of the City of Johannesburg. And do you know what’s in Johannesburg? South Africa’s largest international airport. Nearly all international flights in and out of the country go through Johannesburg. As Omicron spread throughout the country, the worst of the outbreak remained in Gauteng. Interestingly, Gauteng was also the first province in South Africa to reach the peak of the Omicron outbreak.

Botswana Contact Traces Omicron Back to Europe…Before Any Evidence of it Appeared in Africa

After popping up in South Africa, Omicron quickly jumped the border into neighboring Botswana. With the help of the South African Health Ministry, the Federal Government of Botswana contact traced omicron cases back to the Netherlands as early as 8 November. And it may have been in Germany earlier than that.

Furthermore, after extensive contact tracing, neither Botswana nor South Africa could find any evidence of the omicron variant in Africa prior to 15 November. If it was in Europe as early as 8 November, but didn’t appear in Africa until the 15th, how could it have originated in Africa? For reference, South Africa announced the discovery of Omicron on 26 November.

Timing of the Omicron Wave Lines Up Perfectly with it Originating in Europe

To prevent confusion, let’s have a look at new daily Covid cases in just Germany. The start of Germany’s Omicron spike lines up perfectly with Botswana’s contact tracing of Omicron back to the Netherlands on 8 November. Germany’s uneven uptick in cases in late October is likely from the Delta Variant.

Repeat the process for the Netherlands and you get the same perfectly-aligned timing.

Interestingly, the data out of both South Africa and Botswana seem to confirm the contact tracing that Omicron was not present in Africa prior to 15 November. Unlike Germany and the Netherlands, South Africa’s Omicron spike did not start until after they announced they had discovered Omicron on 26 November.

So is this definitive proof that Omicron originated in Europe? Most certainly not. However, it does illustrate how ineffective travel bans are in stopping COVID-19. If my theory is true, banning travel from southern Africa would have done absolutely nothing to stop the Omicron variant if it originated and had already taken hold in Europe.

What Will the Omicron Spike Look Like in the United States, Canada, and Great Britain?

All three countries will see something similar to what India saw with Delta, or what Germany, the Netherlands, and South Africa saw with Omicron. The million dollar question is how big will the spike get, and how long will it last?

To answer those questions, let’s look where each country stands right now. All three countries have started spiking from Omicron. The United States currently has the highest new daily case loads, and as a result, will likely get hit the hardest. The UK is experiencing the biggest spike, while Canada is in the best shape of the three.

For what to expect, let’s turn to the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and and Evaluation (IHME) model.

As expected, I tend to agree with the IHME’s most likely projections. I think both the Universal Masks case as well as the worst-case scenario are both highly unlikely. Holiday gatherings may slightly increase the peak daily cases as well as push the peak date shortly into the future.

We Are Much Better Prepared for Omicron than Any Previous Variant of COVID

Despite all of the doom and gloom predictions, the world is much better prepared for Omicron than any previous variant. First, and foremost, we still have highly effective vaccines. Yes, their effectiveness took a hit, but go back to the Fall of 2020. As companies raced to develop vaccines, most infectious disease experts said that vaccine effectiveness of 50-60% would be a major victory. After a booster shot, both Pfizer and Moderna are reporting 70-75% effectiveness against Omicron.

Furthermore, many more people have immunity after the Delta wave. Through both vaccinations and natural immunity, the pool of susceptible people is much smaller than previous variants had, and that pool keeps shrinking every day. Combined with the highly infectious nature of Omicron, the wave will be over before you know it.

In addition, antiviral treatments are becoming more effective and more widely available. In fact, some of the antivirals are not expected to lose any effectiveness because they don’t target the virus’ spike protein, which is where all of Omicron’s mutations are. And it seems like more treatments are being approved just about every day.

Finally, don’t forget about what I said about Delta. The more infectious it becomes, the harder it will be for other variants to compete with it. As a result, that may end up being a blessing in disguise and help us end the pandemic sooner. The same logic applies to Omicron.

Other Areas of Interest to Watch

Besides all of the countries and regions we have covered so far, there are a few additional areas to watch over the next few months as Omicron spreads around the world.

Conclusion

The Omicron Variant is a harsh reminder that the COVID-19 pandemic is still far from over. However, the panic and hysteria surrounding Omicron is largely unwarranted. Yes, some restrictions will likely be re-introduced, but we will not be going back to the dark lockdown days of March and April, 2020. Back then, there were no vaccines and no treatments.

Today, we have a much bigger toolbox. Go get your booster, and be smart about your holiday gatherings. The Omicron wave will be in and out quickly, regardless of what country you’re in. Then, we can get back to living our lives, and be one step closer to putting this awful pandemic behind us once and for all. Happy New Year, everyone!

Top Image: Matt’s COVID-19 Risk Index for the United States as of 23 December, 2021

The post Why You Shouldn’t Panic Over the Omicron Variant of COVID-19 appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I also believe that the Delta Variant is so dominant that it will ultimately help us end the COVID-19 pandemic sooner. How is that, you ask? It’s actually quite simple

• It blocks other potentially vaccine-resistant variants from taking hold. The Mu Variant that everyone thought was vaccine-resistant has been eradicated. No other variants have been able to establish themselves since Delta became dominant.
• It spreads so fast that most places will reach herd immunity faster.
• Treatments continue to improve, which will help drive down the death rate

Furthermore, the models have spoken loud and clear about the outlook for this winter and the end game for the COVID-19 pandemic. And they’re largely in agreement, too. Barring some freak mutant variant emerging, the COVID-19 pandemic will finally start winding down in 2022.

End Game in the United States: COVID-19 Has Started Shifting from Pandemic to Endemic

As soon as COVID-19 began to spread around the world, it became clear the the only end game is for the virus to become endemic. In its final endemic phase, the virus continues to circulate through the population, but at a much slower rate than during the pandemic phase. As treatments become more effective and widely available, the virus becomes much less dangerous. Many infectious disease experts predict that once COVID-19 reaches its final endemic stage, it will be a similar threat to the flu or the common cold.

Current Status of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

First, let’s look back at what the COVID-19 map looked like back in the summer. Highly vaccinated areas had largely suppressed COVID-19 spread. On the other hand, the Delta variant had set the southeast on fire, where you could find the lowest vaccination rates in the country.

By September, the epicenter had spread north and west, hitting the Inner Mountain West and the Ohio Valley particularly hard. Both areas still have large pockets of unvaccinated residents.

Today, the summer wave has largely subsided. The last dregs of it are rolling through the upper midwest and the northeast, as well as parts of the southwest. All in all, the country is in much better shape than it was back in September. Additionally, notice how the current map looks almost like the inverse of the August map. If reinfections are not occurring in the hard-hit southeast, that’s a major step forward to reaching herd immunity.

Despite the threat of another wave, I do not see any scenario where the United States implements more COVID-19 restrictions. Pandemic fatigue is real, and it’s unlikely further restrictions will be effective. So what exactly lies ahead? Let’s dive into the models.

University of Washington IHME Model

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model remains the gold standard go-to model in the United States. Everyone from the White House to the media to everyday citizens like you and me use it to plan their lives amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.

Before we dive into the cases and deaths, let’s first look at mobility and vaccination projections. Both parameters will help us understand the big picture. Lots of people will be traveling for the holidays this year, even though large pockets of the population remain unvaccinated. First, let’s look at the vaccination projections.

One thing really jumps out at me here. The model projects that vaccine coverage will basically plateau starting in January 22, with 63% of the population fully vaccinated. With a population of 330 million, that means that 125 million people in the United States will remain unvaccinated. Thankfully, that should be high enough to keep hospitals from being completely overwhelmed.

As for mobility, the IHME agrees with my prediction that the United States will not implement any further restrictions. Mobility should approach its pre-pandemic levels in early 2022.

Do Case Loads Lead to the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Before we look towards the end of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, there is still one final hurdle to clear: the holidays. Remember that in 2020, holiday travel and gatherings sent COVID-19 cases spiking to nearly 300,000 per day in the U.S. Things are much different this year, but the threat of another wave is still very real.

A fifth wave in the United States would take on one of two forms. You could have a tsunami of cases like we did last winter or when the Delta Variant hit this summer. However, this scenario is quite unlikely due to the vaccines and the high number of infections in the United States. Instead, my gut feeling is that you’ll see much more of a minor uptick, similar to Scenario 2 in the plot below.

The IHME model agrees. Its official projection calls for a minor uptick of COVID-19 cases over the holidays. Only in the worst case scenario do you see anything like what the U.S. experienced this summer.

COVID-19 Simulator Model

The COVID-19 Simulator is run by Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Georgia Tech, and the Boston Medical Center. We’ve used it in many of our past analyses and forecasts. It has been reliable and accurate throughout the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Because I’m not expecting that the United States will make very many changes to the current COVID-19 protocols, let’s initialize the model to run on the current interventions for the full 16 week projection. To account for waning immunity, let’s also bump the vaccine efficacy down to 75% from its default 90%.

The COVID-19 Simulator falls largely in agreement with the IHME. In a worst-case scenario, new daily case loads would remain below the September, 2021 surge, peaking around 148,000 new cases daily. However, the far more likely scenario is that you’ll see a slight bump in cases as people gather for the holidays. Hopefully, once that’s done, we can have a much clearer view of the COVID-19 pandemic’s end game.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Model

The MIT Model is based off of the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Removed) Model. Like our model, it accounts for features specific to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as government intervention, vaccinations, and human behavior. And it’s probably the most optimistic of the three models. It doesn’t expect much, if any, surge due to the holidays. In fact, it predicts that the United States will only gain about 1 million more cases in the eight-week period between now and late January, 2022.

^ Cumulative case projections from the MIT Model ( https://www.covidanalytics.io/projections)

Places Delta Has Hit Hard Appear to Be Reaching Herd Immunity

One very encouraging pattern that has emerged is that places that the Delta Variant has hit very hard to not appear to be getting much by way of reinfections. Indeed, cases loads and risk levels across the southeastern United States are at the lowest levels they’ve been since the beginning of the pandemic.

This pattern is becoming prevalent around the world. India and Indonesia both experienced major spikes of the Delta Variant between April and July. Both countries have brought new case loads to near record lows and have kept them there. You can say the same thing for Japan. Following the Olympics in July, Japan experienced a major Delta Variant Spike. It’s now reporting less than 200 new cases per day. Even Brazil, which has had a moderate burn throughout the pandemic instead of a big spike, has gotten new case loads down to their lowest levels since May, 2020.

While these are only a few examples, this scenario is playing out in countries on all 7 continents.

Watch the Southern Hemisphere for a Preview of the COVID-19 End Game

Throughout the pandemic, Southern Hemisphere winters (June to September) have offered a glimpse into what the Northern Hemisphere should expect for its winters. While they haven’t been a perfect crystal ball, they have at least gotten us in the ball park for what to expect. And even though not all Southern Hemisphere countries have experienced a spike of the Delta Variant, the ones that did have all gotten case loads down to near record lows and kept them there.

Southern Hemisphere countries on the African continent have had particular success at keeping case loads down following a Delta Variant spike. And keep in mind, vaccines are still few and far between in many of those countries. In fact, the Southern Hemisphere as a whole seems to confirm the models’ predictions that the end game for the COVID-19 pandemic will come in 2022. However, for the best previews of what the United States has in store, I would watch Australia and South Africa.

How Close is the United States to Herd Immunity?

It’s hard to say for sure how close the United States is to herd immunity, but we can run some back-of-the-envelope calculations to get a ballpark number. First and foremost, there are likely far more actual infections than the data show. And that’s true in every single country across the board. The data only contains diagnosed cases from tests. With so many cases either asymptomatic or mild, many people did not get tested even though they contracted COVID-19.

Even though the U.S. has about 48 million positive tests, experts believe that the actual number of cases could be as high as 200 million. However, I think that it’s unlikely that high. Instead, let’s use the COVID-19 Simulator’s best estimate of total U.S. cases: 157 million.

US Population = 330 million
Estimated Cases = 157 million
157 million / 330 million = 47% of population has contracted COVID-19

Now, we’ll add in the vaccinations. About 59% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated. However, we must keep in mind that a portion of the vaccinated population has also contracted COVID-19, either before vaccines were available, or as a breakthrough case. For purposes of this argument, let’s assume that half of the vaccinated population has also contracted COVID-19. When calculating the total population that has immunity, we’ll need to subtract those from the vaccinated pool so they’re not counted twice.

330 million * 0.59 = 195 million fully vaccinated
195 / 2 = 98 million vaccinated, but have not contracted COVID-19

157 million infections + 98 million vaccinated = 255 million immunized
255 million immunized / 330 million population = 77% of population immunized

It’s believed that 90 to 95 percent of the population must be immunized to reach full herd immunity against the Delta Variant. The United States isn’t quite there yet, but it’s getting close. These calculations also point to the COVID-19 end game coming in 2022.

A Tale of Caution: Zero-COVID Strategy Does Not Work Against the Delta Variant

Unfortunately, not every country is succeeding in the war against COVID-19. Europe has once again become the epicenter of the pandemic. Cases are surging in New Zealand. Much of Southeast Asia and Oceania are coming down off of record Delta spikes. What do these countries have in common? They all adapted a zero-COVID strategy at the onset of the pandemic, and the Delta Variant is forcing them to abandon that strategy because of its extraordinarily high transmissibility.

Can Zero-COVID Countries End the Pandemic with Vaccines?

It’s unlikely vaccines alone will end the pandemic. The Delta Variant is so contagious and transmissible that you’d need to vaccinate more than 95% of the population to reach herd immunity through vaccination alone. However, that doesn’t mean vaccines can’t suppress clusters, waves, and hotspots. Just have a look at Europe.

This graph tells the whole story.

So what does this all mean for Europe? Europe is likely going through the same Delta spike that the United States and so many other countries saw back in July and August. Did you notice on the figure above that neither Germany (black line) nor Czechia (blue line) had a major COVID-19 surge over the summer of 2021, while Spain did?

Rapid Vaccine Rollout Kills One-and-Done Delta Spikes in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia had done a stunningly good job controlling COVID-19 until the Delta Variant arrived in May, 2021. After abandoning their zero-COVID strategy, many countries saw horrific Delta spikes as the variant ripped through the population. But the pattern has mirrored what the rest of the world has seen. You get one major spike in cases, and once it peaks, you can quickly suppress it through both vaccines and natural immunity.

Three countries in Southeast Asia really stand out for having some of the highest vaccination rates in the world. They are Cambodia, Malaysia, and Singapore. All three countries saw a major Delta spike earlier this year, and rapidly rolled out vaccines to kill the outbreak in its tracks. Even neighboring Thailand is seeing remarkable success despite having a much lower vaccination rate. Unlike the United States, all four countries continue to rapidly vaccinate their populations.

The lesson for the United States here is that it, too, can keep the Delta Variant at bay. Even if it can’t ramp up its vaccination rate, highly-effective new treatments coming on the market should help blunt the death rate, even in the unvaccinated. Herd immunity is in sight, but you can’t rule out another surge this winter. We just need do everything we can to get there as quickly and safely as possible.

Conclusion

It’s been a long two years, but the end game for the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be finally starting to come into focus. As weird as it sounds, the Delta Variant is actually helping us end the pandemic. It has kept other variants at bay, while establishing a clear pattern around the world. You’ll need to endure one major spike from the Delta variant. And once that’s finished, when coupled with a high vaccination rate, herd immunity should be in sight.

The United States has already endured the worst of the Delta spike. Whatever surge we get this winter should be minor in comparison. The combination of highly effective vaccines and treatments is the silver bullet we’ve been waiting 2 years for. Let’s finally put an end to all of this once and for all.

The post Is the United States Nearing the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic? Model Predictions May Surprise You. appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

While I have been doing routine COVID-19 model runs for the United States and Canada, I have not been forecasting in Europe. Unfortunately, I can’t say for sure whether the model’s stellar performance will translate to accurate COVID-19 forecasts in Europe. Let’s have a look at the best and worst case scenarios for the hardest-hit countries.

Identifying the Most Impacted Countries in Europe

How do we identify which countries we want to model? We have several tools to identify the most troubling trends in the existing data. First, let’s plot the new daily COVID-19 cases for all countries in Europe to identify surges. We are just looking for trends, so don’t worry about which line represents which country.

I’ve identified 2 clusters of COVID-19 surges in Europe. I’ve circled them in pink in the above plot. Countries in Group 1 are currently the hardest hit. On the other hand, significant imminent outbreaks of COVID-19 are likely in Group 2 countries.

Now that we’ve identified the patterns, let’s look at which countries make up each group. The hardest hit countries in Group 1 include France, Spain, and the United Kingdom.

Meanwhile, seven countries in Europe should expect an imminent and significant surge of COVID-19 cases. Group 2 includes Belgium, the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Switzerland. Did you notice that all seven countries have eclipsed their new daily case peak back in April? Some have done so significantly.

Confirm These Plots with a Map

Before we jump into the models, let’s confirm these plots so we don’t waste time modeling countries that are not experiencing a COVID-19 spike. My COVID-19 dashboard includes a map that will confirm the above plots.

Group 1 countries are currently the hardest hit. If we plot the new daily cases on the map, France, Spain, and the UK should show the highest numbers. The darkest blues indicate the highest number of new daily cases.

Group 2 countries are a little trickier. New daily case counts in many Group 2 countries are similar to other countries that are at risk for imminent outbreaks. Instead of looking at daily new cases, let’s look at the percent change in daily new cases over the past two weeks. Group 2 countries will have the largest percent change. Look for the darkest reds on the map.

Recent Model Performance

Following a strong June performance, my COVID-19 model has been on fire. Since 1 July, it has been correct on 90-100% of both two-week and one-month predictions. It did not get a single two-week prediction wrong in August.

The model’s recent performance gives me plenty of confidence in its predictions for Europe. However, models can be fickle, and its success in the US and Canada does not necessarily mean it will do as well predicting a COVID-19 surge in Europe.

Back in the spring, I wrote about how there are actually two best-fit lines for each country. We’ll use those as a baseline for the best and worst-case scenarios in our model runs.

While we hope for the best-case scenario, what actually happens will likely fall between the best and worst-case scenarios. The model projections for the worst-case scenarios are sobering, but remember the chance of the worst-case scenario playing out is extremely low.

Please note that I have run the model through next spring. The accuracy of the model predictions drops significantly for forecasts more than 1 month into the future. We’ll start our analysis with Group 1 in alphabetical order, followed by Group 2.

France

France is the most concerning country in Europe right now. It is registering a 7-day average of 20,000 new COVID-19 cases per day. There is no sign of it slowing down. In the best case scenario, cases will peak in late October or early November at about 30,000 to 35,000 new cases per day.

In the worst case scenario, cases will continue to spike into the winter. They will peak in late February with about 120,000 new cases per day. France will have over 15 million total cases by next summer.

Spain

The good news is that the best-case scenario is playing out for Spain…for now. New cases are showing signs of leveling off. However, they can restart an upward trend at any time. Heading into the winter with new daily cases elevated, the risk of a resurgence is high.

In Spain’s best case scenario, cases are peaking as we speak at about 14,000 new cases per day. While the model shows we may be past this peak, the actual new case counts are still rising, albeit slowly.

On the other hand, this could, and likely will, be just a temporary lull. While I highly doubt the worst-case scenario will play out, I think it’s equally unlikely that the current leveling off of new cases is actually the winter peak. Don’t forget, there’s still two months until the start of winter.

United Kingdom

As the UK approaches 20,000 new daily cases, it has shattered its April peak of about 5,500 new daily cases. As a result, the government has reinstated COVID-19 restrictions, including a three-tier lockdown. Several British media outlets estimate the new restrictions could impact over half of England’s population.

When you first look at the UK’s best-case scenario, you may find yourself a bit confused. Mathematical models do output confusing results from time to time. My best guess is that new cases will peak somewhere between the green and orange lines, or at about 20,000 to 25,000 new cases per day.

The time frame will closely follow the green line, but will be time-shifted about a month later. That means that while the green line shows the peak occurring in early October, the actual peak will likely occur in early November.

As with Spain, any leveling off of new cases within the next month or so will likely be just a temporary lull. Let’s shift gears and look at the worst-case scenario.

As eye-popping as the new case predictions are in the worst-case scenario, the chance of it actually playing out are next to zero. With the new lockdown rules in effect, there is no possible way COVID-19 cases will surge this much in Britain.

Let’s now pivot and look at Group 2 countries. These countries appear to be at the very beginning of a possible surge. As a result, model predictions will not be as accurate as those for France, Spain, and the UK.

Belgium

Belgium has seen an alarming spike in cases, going from 1,600 to 10,200 new daily cases in just the past 3 weeks. Even in the best-case scenario, the model has certainly reacted to the surge.

Like we saw in the projections for the UK, I think the green line is the most likely timeline for Belgium. Just how high cases will spike is much less clear. In a best-case scenario, they will not peak higher than the orange line. My best guess is that it will peak between 15,000 and 20,000 daily new cases.

Amazingly, the worst-case scenario is not much different from the best case scenario. However, in a worst-case scenario, the outbreak is longer in duration. Depending on your point of view, that’s either really good news or really bad news. In the worst-case scenario, 4.2 million Belgians will contract COVID-19 by Spring, 2021.

Czech Republic

In the context of COVID-19, you don’t hear much about the Czech Republic. It did an amazingly good job suppressing the virus in March and April, with daily new cases peaking at about 250 per day. However, cases are now exploding across the Czech Republic. The country reported 11,100 new cases yesterday.

Because new cases in the Czech Republic are surging so rapidly, let’s try a different tactic. The best and worst-case scenarios are so similar, let’s just consider a single case that is most likely to play out. It falls between the best and worst-case scenarios.

New cases in the Czech Republic will continue to climb throughout the rest of 2020. They’ll peak around the first of the year at 20,000 to 25,000 new cases per day. By next spring, COVID-19 will infect just over 3 million Czechs.

Germany

Germany’s current COVID-19 trajectory looks very similar to France’s. Germany has been more successful than France at suppressing the virus, but has suffered a recent resurgence in cases. In the current surge, Germany’s new daily case counts are a little over 1 month behind France’s.

Now, just because we say that Germany is a month behind France, it doesn’t mean that Germany will suffer the same fate. Indeed, the model shows that Germany will peak at about 12,000 new daily cases, compared to over 30,000 in France. However, the duration of the outbreaks in Germany and France will be similar.

Germany also fares much better than France in the worst-case scenario. Though highly unlikely, cases could spike to 120,000 per day in France. Meanwhile, Germany is not expected to see more than 33,000 cases per day, even in the worst-case scenario.

Italy

While COVID-19 ravaged Italy back in the spring, there is no indication from the model that Italy will be the epicenter of Europe during the surge this fall and winter. I expect many of the countries we’ve discussed today will peak higher than Italy.

The green line represents the most likely projection for Italy’s best case scenario. While I expect the timeline to be accurate, the number of new daily cases will peak higher than what the green line indicates, but lower than the orange line’s apex.

Italy’s worst-case scenario puts it on par with Belgium, the Czech Republic, and Germany. The model projects Italy will peak at 35,000 new daily cases around 1 January. I hope that Italians are especially sensitive to the seriousness of COVID-19 after being hit so hard in the spring. If they take COVID-19 seriously, there is no doubt in my mind that Italy will trend much closer to its best-case scenario.

The Netherlands

Like neighboring Belgium, The Netherlands successfully held COVID-19 at bay back in the spring. It’s now also facing a significant surge in cases. New daily cases have risen from 2,800 to 8,000 in just the past three weeks.

The model projects that cases will peak at 10,000 new cases per day around 1 December. However, I believe that the Netherlands will see closer to 15,000 new daily cases at its peak. It could be even higher than that.

The worst-case scenario paints a start contrast. Without action, new daily cases in the Netherlands could spike to 40,000 per day by early January. By next summer, nearly 6 million people could contract COVID-19.

Poland

Poland is another country that has not appeared in the COVID-19 conversation very much. Like the Czech Republic, Poland successfully suppressed the coronavirus back in the spring, but is now seeing a surge in cases. It continues to set new records every day.

In a best-case scenario, new daily cases will peak in mid-December. New daily cases at the peak will likely be higher than what the green line indicates. I don’t expect the peak to exceed what the orange line depicts. I think an apex of 15,000 to 20,000 new daily cases is a safe bet.

Poland’s worst-case scenario follows a very similar pattern. I expect the peak number of new daily cases would fall between what the green and orange lines forecast. Should that happen, over 6 million Poles could contract COVID-19 by next summer.

Switzerland

Much like the rest of west-central Europe, Switzerland is currently in the midst of a huge spike in COVID-19 cases. Its small size makes it a bit tricky to forecast, but here’s what the model’s best guesses are.

There is a chance that Switzerland could see what happened in Québec, Canada last week. A little over a week ago, Québec’s projected case counts looked almost identical to Switzerland’s best-case scenario. As quickly as cases shot up in Québec, they’ve peaked and have started coming back down. Don’t pin your hopes on it, though. Worst-case scenario forecasts for Québec were apocalyptic. I expect multiple waves will hit both Québec and Europe this winter.

Because Switzerland is starting at a lower baseline of new cases, its worst-case scenario looks far better than Québec’s. In this scenario, cases could peak as much as a month after what the model predicts. Should the worst-case scenario play out, about 2.7 million Swiss residents could contract COVID-19 by next summer.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 surge across Europe is especially concerning for other parts of the world. The European Union had for the most part suppressed the virus over the summer. Most countries reported less than 500 new cases per day this summer, and some have since spiked to over 30,000.

Countries that are letting COVID-19 run rampant should be particularly on high alert. These countries include Brazil, India, and the United States. The current explosion in cases across Europe looks to at least mirror the outbreak in Melbourne, Australia during their winter. Cases in Australia went up by two orders of magnitude between late June and early August.

France has gone from 400 new cases a day to about 30,000 cases per day. Much of the rest of central and western Europe has seen a COVID-19 surge of at least one order of magnitude, or ten-fold. They are showing no signs of slowing down.

Now imagine what those same calculations look like for a country like the United States, which is starting from a baseline of about 50,000 daily new cases. Buckle up. It’s gonna be a wild ride this winter.

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