New Mexico Archives - Matthew Gove Blog https://blog.matthewgove.com/tag/new-mexico/ Travel the World through Maps, Data, and Photography Sat, 05 Mar 2022 19:11:45 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.1.5 https://blog.matthewgove.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/cropped-android-chrome-512x512-1-32x32.png New Mexico Archives - Matthew Gove Blog https://blog.matthewgove.com/tag/new-mexico/ 32 32 Pioneering Peril: A Pandemic Polar Vortex in Tornado Alley https://blog.matthewgove.com/2021/03/19/pioneering-peril-a-pandemic-polar-vortex-in-tornado-alley/ https://blog.matthewgove.com/2021/03/19/pioneering-peril-a-pandemic-polar-vortex-in-tornado-alley/#comments Fri, 19 Mar 2021 16:00:00 +0000 https://blog.matthewgove.com/?p=2231 The Southern Great Plains are well-known for their wild, unstable, and sometimes violent weather. Aptly known as Tornado Alley, the region sees more tornadoes and severe weather than anywhere else in the world. Its proximity to both the frigid air of the Rocky Mountains and the warm, tropical waters of […]

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The Southern Great Plains are well-known for their wild, unstable, and sometimes violent weather. Aptly known as Tornado Alley, the region sees more tornadoes and severe weather than anywhere else in the world. Its proximity to both the frigid air of the Rocky Mountains and the warm, tropical waters of the Gulf of Mexico make it a breeding ground for weather extremes. Throw the Polar Vortex and the COVID-19 pandemic in the mix and you’re bound for a wild ride.

EF-3 Tornado in Kansas
An EF-3 Tornado Tears Across an Open Prairie near Harper, Kansas on 19 May, 2012
Shattered windshield after driving through 5-inch diameter hail
The Aftermath of Being Caught in a 5-inch Diameter Hailstorm while Storm Chasing near Woodward, Oklahoma on 9 April, 2012

As I began planning my COVID-19 cross-country road trip last fall, my goal was to avoid the worst of winter across the midwest and northeast. Little did I know that the North Pole would come down and so kindly greet me as I crossed Tornado Alley. The Polar Vortex shattered all kinds of records and left several states – most notably Texas – under a significant emergency.

What is the Polar Vortex?

The Polar Vortex is a large area of very cold air that circulates around both the North and South Poles in the wintertime. Under normal conditions, the stability of the atmosphere keeps the Polar Vortex locked around the poles.

However, certain triggers high above the Earth can cause the Polar Vortex to rapidly destabilize and plunge southward (northward in the Southern Hemisphere) into the mid-latitudes. One particularly powerful trigger occurred in late January, 2021.

What Triggers the Polar Vortex to Destabilize?

To understand how the Polar Vortex behaves, we must travel about 20 to 50 km above the earth’s surface, well above where any weather happens or any airplanes fly. This part of the atmosphere is known as the stratosphere, and contains the far outer ranges of where weather balloons can travel.

Temperatures in the stratosphere are frigid. In the past 40 years, meteorologists have measured temperatures as low as -96°C (-141°F) in the stratosphere. Those cold temperatures are what holds the Polar Vortex in place above the poles.

Armed with that knowledge, you can probably deduce what causes the Polar Vortex to destabilize: a sudden and significant warming of the stratosphere. That’s exactly what happened in January, 2021. In less than 24 hours, the stratosphere warmed by 45°C, or 81°F. It was one of the most extreme stratospheric temperature swings ever recorded.

The January, 2021 destabilization was so powerful that it caused the Polar Vortex to completely fracture in half. One half plunged into the central and eastern parts of the United States and Canada. The other half dove south into Siberia. Temperatures in Yakutsk, Russia dropped to a bone-chattering -58°C (-73°F).

Have We Seen a Polar Vortex Like This Before?

You don’t have to go back very far to find a similar meteorological setup. In January, 2015, meteorologists observed a similar warming of the stratosphere above the North Pole. Shortly thereafter, the Polar Vortex split, sending parts of the US, Canada, and Russia into one of their coldest and snowiest winters ever.

Ice flows in Buzzards Bay from the 2015 Polar Vortex
A Rare Freeze-Over of Buzzards Bay Occurred near Woods Hole, Massachusetts during the Polar Vortex in February, 2015.

One particularly interesting phenomenon is how the strong Polar Vortex makes the east coast of both the US and Canada so vulnerable to major snowstorms. Indeed, two blizzards crippled New England on 27 January and 15 February, 2015. That was only the beginning of a true snowmageddon winter.

Between the two storms, many locations in southeast New England received between 6 and 8 feet of snow. Boston was one of many cities that ran out of places to dump their plowed snow. Even once summer arrived, you’d still see some snow piles driving around. There was so much snow piled so high it took that long to melt. Not surprisingly, we all got a pretty bad case of cabin fever that winter.

I stand next to an 8-foot high pile of snow after the 2015 Polar Vortex slammed New England.
Back-to-Back Blizzards Dumped Nearly 8 Feet of Snow on Falmouth, Massachusetts in early February, 2015. In this photo, I’m standing next to one of the smaller snow piles in town.

Thankfully, 2021 did not suffer the same fate.

A Beautiful Day Across Central New Mexico

If you hadn’t looked at the weather before hand, you would have had no idea what lay ahead with the Polar Vortex. Temperatures were unseasonably warm as I made my way across the high deserts of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico.

Sunrise over Arizona's high desert during the COVID-19 pandemic
Beautiful Morning Skies on Interstate 40 Crossing the High Desert East of Flagstaff, Arizona on 10 February, 2021.

As I descended into Albuquerque, the mercury topped 70°F (21°C). Even with strong winds, it made for very pleasant driving. However, once I climbed back out of the valley, things really began to change. Thick mid-level clouds replaced the warm sun and blue skies. You definitely had that feeling of “something crazy is about to happen” in the air.

Santa Rosa, New Mexico: Running Head-On into a Freight Train of Cold Air

If you’ve ever driven Interstate 40 across New Mexico, you know that it’s largely a vast emptiness of open desert. Aside from the occasional blink-and-you-miss-it town, you’re at the mercy of Mother Nature.

As I got further east of Albuquerque, that layer of mid-level clouds got progressively thicker, darker, and lower. Despite the ominous outlook, temperatures remained quite pleasant, hovering around 65°F (18°C). As I approached the town of Santa Rosa, New Mexico, things took a dramatic turn.

Clouds from the Polar Vortex blot out the sun in eastern New Mexico
Approaching the Polar Vortex near Santa Rosa, New Mexico on 10 February, 2021

When I lived in Oklahoma as a meteorology student, I saw my fair share of wild weather. Whether it was EF-5 tornadoes, ferocious wildfires, thundersleet, a quakenado, or massive hail, it was nothing like what I saw punching through the Polar Vortex. Just when I thought I had seen it all, Mother Nature threw me something new. Wrap your head around this temperature drop.

Time (MT)Temp (F)Temp (C)
12:00 PM7222
12:30 PM6418
1:00 PM6116
1:10 PM5513
1:11 PM5211
1:12 PM489
1:13 PM468
1:14 PM457
1:15 PM436
1:17 PM415
1:19 PM394
1:22 PM373
1:30 PM362
1:54 PM341
1:56 PM320
2:04 PM27-3
2:25 PM24-4
Temperature Drop Punching Through the Polar Vortex on Interstate 40 in Eastern New Mexico on 10 February, 2021

For a different perspective, here is that same data on a time-series graph. Click on the graph to enlarge it.

Graph of the rapid temperature drop as I punched through the Polar Vortex

And to think, this was just the tip of the iceberg.

Entering the Freezing Fog Twilight Zone in Texas

Between storm chasing, road trips, and photography adventures, I’ve driven across the Texas panhandle more times than I can remember. My favorite part of the drive is looking out at the open prairie. You can see forever, and really gives you a sense of freedom being on the open road.

You can see forever on a clear summer day in the Texas Panhandle
Interstate 40 Westbound near Adrian, Texas in August, 2017

What a contrast this trip turned out to be! As a result of the Polar Vortex invasion, we were treated to one of the rarest, and surprisingly, most dangerous weather phenomena in Texas: freezing fog.

What is Freezing Fog?

Freezing fog is no different than regular fog, with one distinct difference. Water droplets in freezing fog are supercooled, meaning that they are below freezing, but remain in liquid form.

Why do they remain as a liquid if they’re below freezing? Water molecules freeze much more efficiently when they are in contact with other particles versus being pure water. These particles can include sand, dust, minerals in tap water, and objects such as trees and vehicles.

Fog forms when water vapor condenses out of the air. Those fog droplets are pure water, and therefore freeze less efficiently.

The Polar Vortex shrouds eastern New Mexico in freezing fog
Freezing Fog near San Jon, New Mexico on 10 February, 2021

Why is Freezing Fog so Dangerous?

Whenever water remains in a supercooled state, it poses an enormous risk to both vehicles and airplanes. Remember that we just reviewed how water freezes much more efficiently when in contact with other particles than when it is pure water?

When a supercooled water droplet comes into contact with something other than pure water, it instantly freezes. While freezing fog coming into contact with trees and grasses is largely harmless, it’s a much different story when it freezes on roads, overpasses, and your vehicle. Black ice is dangerous enough to begin with. It’s even more so in places like Texas that are not used to seeing it.

Ice accumulates on grasses and trees in the Texas Panhandle during the Polar Vortex
Freezing Fog Begins to Deposit Ice Accretions on Grasses and Trees near Vega, Texas on 10 February, 2021

How Does Freezing Fog Form in a Hot, Arid Climate Like West Texas?

Warm air can hold much more moisture than cold air. Most of that moisture is in the air as water vapor. We measure it with either the dewpoint or the relative humidity.

When air cannot hold any more moisture, it reaches saturation. Any more moisture that gets added after that condenses out either as clouds or precipitation. There are two ways to reach saturation.

  • Add moisture to the environment. You see this when the bathroom fogs up as you take a shower.
  • Lower the temperature of the environment. There is no better example of this than when you see your breath on a cold day. Your warm breath has more moisture than the ambient cold air can hold, so it condenses out as a fog.

The powerful cold front I had punched through in eastern New Mexico had swept across the Texas Panhandle only a few hours earlier. Even in an arid environment like West Texas, the temperature dropped so extremely and rapidly that the air could not hold what little moisture it had. As a result, the excess moisture condensed into a freezing fog.

It was almost as if you could see Mother Nature’s breath.

Enter the Polar Vortex Twilight Zone

Being used to crossing the Texas panhandle in the summertime made this experience even more unique. The freezing fog shrouded everything in an eerie haze reminiscent of some kind of twilight zone. In addition, the Polar Vortex had been in place just long enough to start coating the landscape with a visible layer of ice. The setting late afternoon sun made that haze even eerier.

The Polar Vortex shrouds a Texas wind farm in a frigid, eerie haze.
An Eerie Haze as Freezing Fog Shrouds a Wind Farm near Vega, Texas on 10 Feburary, 2021

The deeper I got into Texas, the longer the bitter cold Polar Vortex air had been entrenched in place. Temperatures continued to plummet. Not surprisingly, the fog got thicker the further east I got. The setting sun slowly swallowed you into that twilight zone of darkness.

Things got even weirder as I crossed into Oklahoma.

Oklahoma? More Like Snow-klahoma!

How many times have you seen something bad happen and thought, “that won’t happen here”? I’ve done it more times than I care to admit, including this trip. Once I crossed the state line into Oklahoma, it didn’t take long for me to realize the full seriousness and severity of the Polar Vortex. At a gas station in Elk City, I noticed that both the windshield cleaner and the hand sanitizer had frozen solid as I fought 50 mph (80 km/h) winds and -11°F (-24°C) wind chills to fill my gas tank.

The Polar Vortex Flexes Its Muscles

Less than 48 hours after arriving in Norman, the first of back-to-back snowstorms hit the Southern Plains. After just a few days of wild weather we had shattered all kinds of winter weather records.

Most notably, the National Weather Service measured the coldest temperatures ever recorded in the State of Oklahoma. The only Oklahoma saw colder temperatures occurred in the late 1800s, when it was still the Indian Territory.

ParameterDateMetricImperial
Total Snowfall10-15 Feb33 cm13 in
Coldest High Temp15 Feb-16°C3°F
Warmest High Temp23 Feb23°C74°F
Coldest Low Temp16 Feb-24°C-12°F
Coldest Wind Chill *15 Feb-34°C-30°F
Temperature Swing16-23 Feb47°C86°F
Max Wind Gust *14 Feb52 km/h32 mph
Polar Vortex Statistics from the Norman, Oklahoma Mesonet Site from 10-24 February, 2021
* More extreme data is likely missing due to icing on wind sensors

Thankfully, the snow didn’t stick around for very long. Temperatures rapidly warmed as the Polar Vortex pulled out of the area. In true Oklahoma fashion, we were walking around in shorts and t-shirts less than a week later as temperatures soared to 74°F (23°C).

The Polar Vortex drops a foot of snow across central Oklahoma amidst the COVID-19 pandemic
The Polar Vortex Snowstorm gets underway in Norman, Oklahoma on 14 February, 2021

Having Fun with Physics During a Power Outage in Sub-Zero Polar Vortex Temperatures

It often feels daunting when you lose power during a storm. Initial panic sets in that much more when the power goes out when it’s -5°F (-21°C) out and blowing over 30 mph (50 km/h). That’s the exact situation we found ourselves in the middle of the heaviest snow during my stay in Oklahoma.

I awoke in the middle of the night. As I reached for my phone to check the time, I noticed that it felt chilly in the house. I figured the thermostat had been turned down at night, and I didn’t think much of it. It was about 5:15 AM, so I decided to check the weather on my phone to see how cold it had gotten.

Much to my surprise, my phone could not connect to the internet. Not only was the WiFi out, I had no cell service, either. Being in the middle of a city of 125,000 people, something was very wrong.

I sat up and noticed that all of the night lights in the hallway were flickering and and off. I kept thinking, was I back in the twilight zone I was in driving here? At that point, I knew it was only a matter of time before the power company pulled the plug.

Less than 5 minutes later, the power went out for good. All you could hear was the wind, the snow, and the transformers blowing up nearby. At that point, there wasn’t much I could do, so I rolled over and went back to sleep.

Physics and Thermodynamics: An Alternate Source of Entertainment

If you’ve ever studied physics, chemistry, or thermodynamics, you’ve probably heard of the ideal gas law. While it has its limitations, the law is a good approximation of many gases, including air, under many conditions. Mathematically, it is defined as:

pV = nRT

where

  • p is the pressure
  • V is the volume
  • n is the amount of gas
  • R is the ideal gas constant
  • T is the temperature

Now, here’s where the fun starts. I slept on an air mattress while I was in Norman. Because the power was out, the heat in the house did not work, so the house cooled off. In terms of the ideal gas law, we know that R is already constant. Inside the sealed air mattress, both the amount of air (n) and the volume (V) are also constant. We can reduce the ideal gas law to a simple relationship.

p ~ T

In layman’s terms, that equation just means that as temperature changes, the pressure will change in the same manner, and vice versa. We were now about 3 hours into the power outage, and the house was really starting to feel cold. As the temperature continued to drop, I could feel the air mattress getting softer and softer until I could feel my butt hit the floor underneath the mattress.

Here’s the best part. Shortly after 8 AM, the power came back on. It was cold in the house, so I decided to stay in my nice warm sleeping bag until the heat could work its magic. As the house warmed back up, the air mattress reinflated as the pressure inside increased. Before I knew it, the ideal gas law had lifted my backside up off the floor, and the house had returned to its normal temperature.

Up Next

As memorable as my stopover in Oklahoma has been, this is not the end of my dance with the Polar Vortex and Old Man Winter. Next week, we’ll continue east and see if it really was that wise of a decision to go camping in the mountains in Kentucky in February…in the middle of an ice storm. All that and more right here next Friday at 9 AM Pacific Time. See you then.

Top Photo: Heavy Snow Falls During the Polar Vortex
Norman, Oklahoma – February, 2021

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COVID-19 Road Trip Journal: Wild Weather in the Wild West https://blog.matthewgove.com/2021/03/12/covid-19-road-trip-journal-wild-weather-in-the-wild-west/ https://blog.matthewgove.com/2021/03/12/covid-19-road-trip-journal-wild-weather-in-the-wild-west/#comments Fri, 12 Mar 2021 16:00:00 +0000 https://blog.matthewgove.com/?p=2216 After nearly 3 weeks of self-isolation at home, a crashed garage door, and a mad dash to finish packing and putting the house away, it’s great to finally be on the road. I’ve always said that the easy part of a road trip doesn’t begin until you finish packing and […]

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After nearly 3 weeks of self-isolation at home, a crashed garage door, and a mad dash to finish packing and putting the house away, it’s great to finally be on the road. I’ve always said that the easy part of a road trip doesn’t begin until you finish packing and hit the road. This trip is certainly no different. After 5 straight days of packing and cleaning, I am really looking forward to being able to just sit on my butt and drive.

Lessons From My Road Trip to Oregon Last Summer

This trip is actually not my first foray out of Arizona during the COVID-19 pandemic. Last summer, I drove to Oregon to get a reprieve from Arizona’s summer COVID-19 spike and its relentless summer heat. In 2020, we had over 50 days of high temperatures above 110°F (44°C), which shattered the old record of 33. The Oregon trip was eye-popping, making me realize the complete callousness and carelessness of Arizona’s attitude toward the pandemic.

An empty highway in Nevada proved to be the ultimate exercise in social distancing on a road trip during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Driving through the guts of central Nevada on my way to Oregon in July, 2020 proved to be the ultimate exercise in social distancing.

What a Difference Crossing the State Line Makes

On the Oregon road trip, my first gas stop was in Kingman, Arizona. I almost always stop in Kingman on trips that take me to California and Nevada. Kingman has always been safe and welcoming, and I have never once felt any hint of sketchiness or being unsafe.

I followed the same rules on the Oregon trip as I did this road trip. As a result, I wore N-95 masks every gas stop because I did not want to bring COVID-19 to Oregon with me. As I gassed up in Kingman, I noticed that a crowd had started to gather around me. They did not look happy, either. By the time I finished pumping the gas, the crowd was circling me much in the same way a group of lions closes in on a wounded gazelle. Thankfully, I left without incident.

Who Knew What to Expect Crossing into Nevada

Fast forward a few hours. I’m north of Las Vegas, and it’s time for my second gas stop. As I pulled into the gas station, every pump had a handwritten sign on it. That sign said in both English and Spanish, “No Mask, No Service”. I thought okay, feeling much less sketched out now.

Shortly after I started fueling, a car pulled into the other side of the pump. I was cautiously curious to see what would happen, since I had received death threats over masks in similar situations in Arizona. A middle-aged couple got out of the car, and they were both masked. This was the exact moment it started setting in just how completely batshit crazy Arizona was.

The lady in the other car started pumping gas, and the man started walking towards the convenience store. I noticed that he turned around after he got about half way to the convenience store. As he approached the car, he said “Honey, can you hand me my mask? I can’t go in without it.” That completely blew my mind. I was no more than 50 or 60 miles (80 or 100 km) from the Arizona border. What alternate universe have I ported into?

Oregon Took COVID-19 Seriously, Too

Even in very rural areas, both Oregon and Nevada took things seriously. Everyone wore masks in public, and you could see COVID-19 precautions in place everywhere. People kept their distance and largely stayed out of indoor public places. I felt things were much more controlled in Oregon and Nevada, and felt safer as a result.

Continuing the ultimate exercise in social distancing on an empty highway in eastern Oregon during a pandemic road trip.
More of the Ultimate Social Distancing Exercise near Jordan Valley, Oregon – July, 2020

All right, back to the present day.

Arizona

Things on this road trip were going to be different than the Oregon trip. So much has changed in just the six months since I drove to Oregon. Most notably, we now have several highly-effective vaccines available, as well as new antiviral treatments.

You don’t have to be on the freeway for long to realize how the pandemic has halted recreational travel. Unlike my summer road trip, my route this trip largely confined me to the Interstate system, whereas I only spent about 45 minutes of the 22-hour drive to Oregon on the Interstate.

You’ll quickly notice that once you’re out of the city, traffic on the freeway is almost exclusively semi trucks and big rigs. This is especially prevalent once you get on a major cross-country artery such as Interstate 40. It’s wintertime, and the pandemic is keeping everybody at home.

Even Mother Nature came through to help get the trip off to a good start. She treated us to spectacular morning driving conditions east of Flagstaff.

Morning sun shines through the clouds on Interstate 40 in Arizona during the COVID-19 pandemic
Cloud cover made for a nice sunrise and meant I didn’t have to stare straight into the sun passing across the high desert east of Flagstaff, Arizona.

New Mexico

Entering New Mexico, I expected a very similar experience to the one I had in Nevada last summer. New Mexico did not disappoint. Right at the state line, they greet you with several signs.

  • New Mexicans take COVID-19 seriously
  • Masks are required statewide
  • People arriving from out of state must quarantine
  • If you break the rules, they will fine you.

I suspect that the reason New Mexico keeps reminding you of the rules is that if you exclude the international border, it’s surrounded on two of its remaining three sides by states that routinely flout COVID-19 restrictions and mock the pandemic. Additionally, both east-west arteries through New Mexico – Interstate 40 and Interstate 10 – directly connect those neighboring states that have made a mockery of the pandemic.

Even once you get away from the state line, you will be constantly reminded of the ongoing pandemic. Electronic signs in front of businesses instructed people to mask up, keep your distance, and stay safe. Interestingly, I also felt a sense of optimism in the air as businesses looked forward to adding capacity as COVID-19 cases continue to decline.

Ironically, the only time I really felt sketchy on the entire cross-country road trip occurred in one of the states I expected to feel the safest. The town of Tucumcari sits right on Interstate 40 about 30 miles west of the Texas state line. As I pulled into a gas station in town, I noticed that all of the vehicles there had Texas license plates. It was basically a repeat of what happened in Kingman last summer. It’s unnerving as hell having the angry crowd gathering around you, but once again, I was very grateful to get in and out without incident.

A Sneak Preview: An Icy Reception from the North Pole in Santa Rosa

As I passed through Santa Rosa, New Mexico, I punched through the strongest Polar Vortex to hit the US in recent memory. It brought some of the most wild weather I have ever seen on a road trip.

  • Temperature dropped 45°F in 15 minutes
  • Freezing fog leads into the twilight zone in the Texas Panhandle
  • Wind chills dropped to -35°F (-37°C).
  • The State of Oklahoma measured its coldest temperature ever.

Tune in next week for the full story, including pictures.

Texas

The Lone Star State continues to be in complete denial about the events of 2020. While I did not stop in Texas, you can see plenty from the highway as you pass through.

If you were dropped into the Texas panhandle without context, you would have no idea there was a once-in-a-century pandemic going on. The “Twilight Zone” effect from the freezing fog and the polar vortex only made this visit to Texas even weirder.

  • Bars, restaurants, and stores in Amarillo were absolutely packed.
  • There was not a mask, an effort to stay socially distanced, or any other attempts to contain COVID-19 to be found.
  • You’ll see all kinds of political pro-Trump, anti-pandemic, and stolen election signs on the side of the highway.

The weather only continued to deteriorate as I got into Oklahoma.

Western Oklahoma

I always feel like I’m home when I cross the state line from Texas into Oklahoma. It was my route home after so many memorable storm chases, after all. While this road trip did feel a bit like storm chasing, tornadoes were the last thing on my mind as I headed back to my old stomping grounds. While I had prepared for cold weather, I was most certainly not ready for the bitter temperatures that welcomed me back to Oklahoma.

Welcome to Oklahoma sign
Sign on I-40 Eastbound Welcoming You to Oklahoma

Shortly after dusk, I pulled off the freeway for one of my final gas stops of the day in Elk City, Oklahoma. When you exit onto the eastbound I-40 business loop, you have to travel for several miles through the open prairie before you reach Elk City proper. The gas station I had chosen was west of Elk City, in the open prairie.

Pulling in, I glanced up at the thermometer in the truck. The outside temperature had dropped to 14°F (-10°C). I thought to myself, no big deal, these temperatures are nothing new to me. It doesn’t take that long to pump a tank of gas. I put on my heavy coat, winter hat, and warm gloves. When I opened the door to step out, it completely took my breath away.

There’s a Reason the Chorus of the Musical Oklahoma! is so Famous

If you’ve ever driven across western Oklahoma, you’ll know that it is flat and open. When the wind blows, there is nothing to knock it down. No trees, no hills, no barriers. Nothing. In fact, the terrain slopes ever so slightly downhill as you go from west to east. When the wind has a westerly component, gravity can actually help accelerate the wind as it comes down the prairie.

Wheat fields on an open prairie in northwestern Oklahoma
Wheat fields in northwestern Oklahoma stretch for as far as the eye can see – May, 2012

What I had failed to realize while I was driving was that the polar wind was whipping down the Oklahoma prairie at about 50 mph (80 km/h). While I was dressed appropriately for the cold, I was not dressed for that kind of wind. The conditions in Elk City that evening combined to yield a wind chill of -11°F (-24°C). To add insult to injury, I had parked so the filler nozzle was on the upwind side of the truck, so there was nowhere to hide from the wind.

This was the exact moment it hit me just how severe this Polar Vortex would be. As I clamored back into the truck to warm up, barely able to feel my face, fingers, and toes, I happened to glance down. Both the windshield cleaner and hand sanitizer the gas station had put out were frozen solid. Not slushy or syrupy. Solid.

By the time I got to my friend’s house in Norman, temperatures had dropped into the single digits and bottomed out around -5°F (-21°C) the next morning. And that was only the beginning.

Up Next

Tune in next time to hear the full details of my tango with the Polar Vortex. Temperatures were much more reminiscent of northern Alaska in February than the southern plains. We’ll enter the twilight zone in Texas. In Oklahoma, experience power outages as wind chills dropped to -35°F (-37°C) while getting buried under a foot of snow.

Then, in true Oklahoma fashion, less than a week later, we were walking around in t-shirts and shorts as temperatures soared to 75°F (24°C). See you next week.

Top Photo: The Morning Sun Illuminates Palo Duro Canyon
Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

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15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Western United States https://blog.matthewgove.com/2020/10/26/15-covid-friendly-landscape-photography-adventures-in-the-western-united-states/ https://blog.matthewgove.com/2020/10/26/15-covid-friendly-landscape-photography-adventures-in-the-western-united-states/#comments Mon, 26 Oct 2020 19:32:14 +0000 https://blog.matthewgove.com/?p=1855 COVID-19 cases are once again hitting record highs here in the US as the pandemic rages on. Do you have a plan to boost your mental health this fall and winter? If you don’t have one yet, getting outside is the best way to give your mental health a boost […]

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COVID-19 cases are once again hitting record highs here in the US as the pandemic rages on. Do you have a plan to boost your mental health this fall and winter? If you don’t have one yet, getting outside is the best way to give your mental health a boost during this Covid winter.

With all international travel and most domestic travel on hold, look closer to home for happiness. Interestingly, some of the photography adventures I have taken in years past check all of the boxes for Covid safety. What a perfect way to boost your mental health! Today, let’s have a look at fifteen destinations in the western United States to get outside and explore. In addition, you can treat your mental health away from the crowds and from the safety of your Covid bubble.

A Word of Caution About Adventuring During COVID

Just because we’re talking about fun adventures today does not mean it’s a green light to let loose. Stay close to home and stick to day trips. This is not the appropriate time to be pin-balling all over the country. Don’t invite all of your friends to come with you, either. Instead, stick to small groups of people you live with, who are already in your Covid bubble. Pack plenty of food, drinks, and sanitizer so you don’t need to stop anywhere.

Please obey all local Covid restrictions, ordinances, and mandates. I know it feels like so many of them have been politicized, but they are there for a reason. Many state and national parks have their own restrictions as well. You will likely be fined if you violate restrictions on state or federal land.

Finally, don’t forget to plan for any hazards you would normally encounter during non-COVID times. Many of these destinations can close unexpectedly due to snow and ice in the winter. Speaking of which, know the tire chain requirements for any states you’ll be traveling through. Carry chains with you and know how to chain up yourself if you’re expecting to be in snow country. If you have any doubts, it’s probably best to stay home.

Now, let’s kick those Covid blues and put your mental health on the fast track to happiness.

1. Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument – Arizona

A drive through Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument makes for a great getaway during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Organ Pipe Cacti dot the landscape along the Ajo Mountain Drive in Arizona’s Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument – July, 2017

The Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument sits on the US-Mexico border at the south end of Arizona’s Highway 85. It is the only place in the United States to see the rare organ pipe cactus. While the cactus itself is fairly common south of the border, even the mild winters in Arizona’s low deserts have proven to be too cold for it.

The national monument is also home to an incredible diversity of rare species of flora, fauna, and surprisingly, fish. The Quitobaquito Oasis is home to species of fish that cannot be found anywhere else in the world. The rarest of all is the Sonoyta pupfish. Named for the Mexican town that sits across the border from the monument, Quitobaquito is the only known place in the world that they inhabit.

Note: The access roads to Quitobaquito and Dos Lomitas Ranch are currently closed due to construction of new border fencing.

You’ll find the best photo ops along the Ajo Mountain drive. The 33 km (21 mi) guided tour starts across Highway 85 from the Visitors Center. Along the way, you’ll stop and see the best of what the Sonoran Desert has to offer. If you’re looking to get off the beaten path a little more, consider the North Puerto Blanco Drive. It starts from behind the Visitors Center, but beware that you’ll need a high clearance 4×4 to tackle it.

2. Pacific Coast Highway – Oregon and California

The freedom of a drive up the coast provides a therapeutic boost to your mental health during the Covid pandemic.
Aerial View of the Pacific Coast from Newport, Oregon – August, 2017

Is there any better feeling than the freedom of a drive up the coast? The fresh ocean air is bound to give anyone’s mental health a shot in the arm. In the age of Covid, keep your stops away from towns and population centers. Find a quiet pull-out at the top of a bluff, and enjoy that nice picnic lunch that you brought from home as you watch the world go by.

3. Burr Trail – Utah

The Burr Trail winds through some of the most beautiful backcountry in Utah.
The Burr Trail Snakes through Long Canyon near Boulder, Utah – May, 2017

The Burr Trail winds over 120 km (76 mi) through the guts of Utah’s breathtaking backcountry. Starting in the town of Boulder, you’ll pass through the Grand Staircase – Escalante National Monument, Capitol Reef National Park, and the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area.

Drive through beautiful canyons, across stunning mesas, and descend the infamous Burr Trail Switchbacks, which drop close to 1,000 feet elevation in just 1 mile. At a 13% grade on a narrow dirt track, the switchbacks satisfy the hunger of even the most adventurous. You’ll quickly see why it’s rated one of the most scenic drives in Utah and the ultimate exercise in social distancing.

4. Palo Duro Canyon – Texas

The beauty and solace of Palo Duro Canyon will do wonders for your mental health.
Soft morning light illuminates Palo Duro Canyon near Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

Known as the Grand Canyon’s Little Brother, Palo Duro Canyon is the second largest canyon in the United States. Meaning “strong wood” in Spanish, Palo Duro Canyon offers outdoor activities for everyone, including hiking, mountain biking, and horseback riding. The entrance to the state park is a short drive south of Amarillo on Interstate 27. And unlike the Grand Canyon, you can actually drive the bottom of Palo Duro Canyon in a normal passenger car.

You’ll get plenty of great photo opportunities from both the rim and the bottom of the canyon. I recommend arriving close to either sunrise or sunset in order to take advantage of soft, low light on the canyon’s walls. Snap some pictures from the lookouts near the Visitors’ Center before starting your descent into the canyon.

5. Great Salt Plains – Oklahoma

The seemingly endless salt pan at Great Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge.
The seemingly endless Great Salt Plains near Cherokee, Oklahoma – May, 2013

Take a journey back in time at Oklahoma’s Great Salt Plains. The salt pan is a remnant of prehistoric times, when a vast ocean covered what is now Oklahoma. In the summertime, you can venture out on the salt flats and dig for selenite crystals. The Great Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge is the only place in the world where you’ll find hourglass-shaped selenite crystals.

Fast-forward to today, and you’ll find a state park, a national wildlife refuge, and a large lake. The Great Salt Plains are a great spot to go hiking, swimming, and boating. However, my favorite activity is to take the quiet and tranquil scenic drive through the salt marshes off of Highway 11. You’ll truly be at one with your camera and with nature. If you’re there at the right time of year, Oklahoma is a popular stop along a major bald eagle migration route, too.

6. Apache Trail – Arizona

Lift your mental health along the Apache Trail on an easy day drip from Phoenix.
View of the Apache Trail from the top of Fish Creek Hill in the Superstition Wilderness, Arizona – January, 2016

Take breathtaking drive through the rugged terrain of Arizona’s Superstition Mountains. Originally built as a stagecoach road in the early 20th century, the Apache Trail was named after the Apache Indians who used this same route to cross the mountains. Today, it is Arizona’s State Route 88, an easy day trip from Phoenix.

Much of the Apache Trail is unpaved, but passable in a standard passenger car. There are several steep, narrow hills and one-lane bridges. My best advice to you is that if you don’t like heights, don’t look down. When you reach the end of the trail, you’ll be rewarded with spectacular views of Theodore Roosevelt Lake.

7. Death Valley’s Badwater Backcountry – California

Death Valley offers plenty of warmth and sunshine to lift your mental health and spirits during the Covid pandemic.
The endless desolate landscape inside Death Valley National Park, California – February, 2020

You don’t appreciate exactly how extreme an environment Death Valley is until you travel through its backcountry. Head west out of Pahrump, Nevada, and follow California Highways 178, 127, and 190. You’ll wind up in the heart of Death Valley National Park in the aptly-named town of Furnace Creek, California. Furnace Creek measured the world-record high temperature of 134°F (57°C) on 10 July, 1913. You’ll also pass through Badwater Basin, which marks the lowest point in the United States, at 86 meters (282 ft) below sea level.

Before setting out, please know what you’re getting yourself into. You will be driving through some of the most remote, desolate backcountry in the world. There will be times that you’re more than 120 km (75 mi) from the nearest town.

Gas up before you leave Pahrump, as it could be over 320 km (200 mi) before you see another gas station. Stay hydrated, as dehydration and heat exhaustion are possible even in the winter. And if you break down? You better know how to fix it or have a satellite phone. There is no cell service inside Death Valley National Park, and seeing other cars in the backcountry is extremely rare.

8. White Sands National Park – New Mexico

Mild winters at White Sands National Park make for a great socially distanced day trip during Covid.
Gypsum dunes at then-White Sands National Monument – June, 2012

Home to the world’s largest gypsum dunefield, White Sands is a true natural wonder. Sitting just outside of Alamogordo, New Mexico, it’s one of the only National Parks that is very slowly moving downwind.

Are you wondering what exactly gypsum is? It looks like salt, and feels like sand, but is in fact neither of them. Gypsum is a soft mineral composed mainly of calcium sulfate. In fact, the “sand” at White Sands National Park is soluble in water. If you put a handful of it into a glass of water, it will dissolve.

9. Antelope Hills – Oklahoma

Leave your mental health worries behind at the Antelope Hills and surrounding grasslands.
Adventuring at the Antelope Hills in Western Oklahoma – October, 2013

The Antelope Hills are a small, but important landmark in the history of both Oklahoma and the United States as a whole. In addition to marking the westernmost point settlers could claim in Oklahoma during the land rush of the 1800s, it also marked the US-Mexico border.

At the time, it separated the United States’ Indian Territory from Mexico’s Alta California territory. Alta California was mostly comprised of what is currently Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. The United States acquired the territory as part of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, which ended the Mexican-American War in 1848.

The dirt road to the Antelope Hills is passable in a standard passenger car and is generally void of other traffic. However, be aware that 18-wheelers sometimes use it as a shortcut to access a nearby oil rig, so the road can be extremely washboarded at times. If you’re in the area, I encourage you to visit the nearby Black Kettle National Grassland and the Washita Battlefield National Historic Site.

10. Lee’s Ferry and Marble Canyon – Arizona

Stunning red rocks and clear azure waters will wash away your mental health woes during the Covid winter.
Looking downstream along the Colorado River at Lee’s Ferry, Arizona – May, 2017

If you’re looking to avoid crowds at the Grand Canyon, make a stop near Page at Lee’s Ferry and Marble Canyon. Sitting just outside the boundaries of Grand Canyon National Park, there is plenty of space to keep yourself socially-distanced from the few other people that may be there.

Pull up a chair on the beach and stick your feet in the water to cool off. Have a picnic, read a book, or just relax and enjoy the solitude. If you’re feeling exceptionally brave, take a swim. Lee’s Ferry is only a few miles downstream of the Glen Canyon Dam, so water temperature usually top out around 45°F (7°C), even in the dead of summer.

As you leave Lee’s Ferry, stop for a few photos at the Navajo Bridge. The foot bridge provides stunning views of Marble Canyon from 500 feet above the Colorado River. Be aware that the bridge can occasionally be crowded, though large crowds are mostly a summer phenomenon.

11. Scenic Highway 12 – Utah

It's hard to put the vistas along Utah's Scenic Highway 12 into words.
One of the many breathtaking vistas from Scenic Highway 12 in Utah – May, 2017

Utah’s Scenic Highway 12 is probably the most spectacular drive I’ve ever taken. It’s well-deserving of its distinction as an All-American Road. You’ll see the stunning rock formations near Zion National Park, the famous hoodoos of Bryce Canyon, majestic mountains, lush forests, and much more.

If Scenic Highway 12 leaves you craving more, the highway provides easy access to Zion National Park, Bryce Canyon National Park, the Burr Trail, Capitol Reef National Park, and Utah’s Scenic Highway 95. Do you have a 4×4 and a stronger quest for adventure? Many of Utah’s famous scenic backways, including Hell’s Backbone and Hole-in-the-Rock, can be found right off of Highway 12.

12. US-395 – California

Majestic snow-capped peaks higlight the drive up US-395 in California during my final trip prior the Covid shutdowns.
Snow-Capped Peaks of the Sierra Nevada Foothills along US-395 near Big Pine, California – February, 2020

Many travel guides properly designate US-395 in California as an All-American Road Trip. Running along the base of the Sierra Nevada Mountains from Ridgecrest to Lake Tahoe, there is no shortage of beautiful scenery.

After starting on the valley floor, you’ll pass through deserts, grasslands, and pine forests as you ascend to nearly 2,500 meters (8,200 feet) elevation at Conway Summit. For more than just a driving trip, US-395 offers plenty of side excursions. Turn off and explore the Alabama Hills, Inyo or Stanislaus National Forests, or one of the roads to the many ski resorts along the way.

In the wintertime, please check the road conditions for every road you plan to explore in this area. The Sierra Nevada are notorious for their massive snowstorms, which often strike fast and hard. As a result, many roads close in the winter, and you don’t want to get cut-off or stranded.

Additionally, I also recommend you carry tire chains at all times during the winter months. California requires them for most vehicles when it snows in the Sierra. If you have any doubts about snow, consider driving US-95 as an alternate. It runs parallel to US-395 on the Nevada side of the state line at a much lower elevation. It’s not quite as scenic, but it sure beats sitting around at home.

13. Gloss Mountain State Park – Oklahoma

Gloss Mountain State Park is one of the best places in Oklahoma to catch a sunset.
Soft evening light lights up the escarpment at Gloss Mountain State Park near Orienta, Oklahoma – May, 2012

Don’t let the fact that it’s less than 1 square mile fool you. Gloss Mountain State Park packs a punch for its small size. Take the short hike to the top of the escarpment for spectacular 360-degree views of the surrounding prairie. It’s an incredible spot to watch the sunset. Alternatively, find a quiet spot to have a picnic, ponder your thoughts, or meditate.

When you’re done, drive the Gloss Mountain Loop. The dirt track loop is part of Oklahoma’s Great Plains Trail system. While not part of the state park, it offers a unique perspective of the surrounding area, and plenty of good photo ops. You’ll probably meet a few friendly cows along the way, too.

14. Mogollon Rim – Arizona

The Mogollon Rim gave me a therapeutic escape from tough times in the past.
One of the many spectacular views of the summer monsoon from the Mogollon Rim in Arizona – July, 2017

I can only describe the Mogollon Rim as a therapeutic escape. At nearly 8,000 feet (2,200) meters above sea level, I have always used it to escape Phoenix’s scorching summer heat. There’s something truly magical when you feel the cool summer breezes through the ponderosa pines. Using that logic, it would make a great escape from Covid life as well.

The Mogollon Rim Road, Forest Road 300, runs about 75 km (45 mi) right along the edge of the rim. It passes through the Coconino and Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests, offering an incredible diversity of viewpoints and photo ops. Find a quiet spot with a great view at one of the many turnouts along the Rim Road or head over to one of the area’s many lakes and fully immerse yourself in your escape.

Note: The Mogollon Rim Road closes for the winter after the first major snowfall and usually re-opens sometime in April.

15. Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge – Oklahoma

Stunning views from the summit of Mt. Scott highlight the Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge experience.
Looking out over the Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge from atop Mt. Scott – November, 2012

The Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge was one of my go-to getaways when I lived in Oklahoma. Start your day with a drive up Mt. Scott for a bird’s eye overview of the refuge. At 2,500 feet (760 meters) above sea level, the summit of Mt. Scott is the highest point in the main body of Oklahoma. From the top, you’ll get a breathtaking 360 degree view of the wildlife refuge, the Wichita Mountains, and nearby towns.

Next, make your way through the wildlife refuge on State Highway 49. Stop at any of the lakes, information stations, or pullouts. You’ll often see buffalo and longhorn cattle roaming the grasslands. There is never a shortage of wildlife for bird watchers, especially during the bald eagle migrations through Oklahoma. Additionally, keep an eye out for prairie dogs peeking out from their burrows.

If you still have some time, visit Great Plains State Park and Quartz Mountain State Park. Both are located just west of the Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge. They highlight the true diversity of the landscapes across southwestern Oklahoma. You’ll see much of the same wildlife and achieve the same rewarding escape.

Conclusion

I can’t stress enough the importance of taking care of your mental health during this Covid winter. There will be dark days, as well as times that feel hopeless. Having an outlet to give you a temporary escape from reality and put a smile back on your face is one of the best decisions you can make for yourself.

Top Photo: Gorgeous Landscapes at the Rainbow Point Overlook
Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah – May, 2017

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Bandera Volcano: New Mexico’s Land of Fire and Ice https://blog.matthewgove.com/2019/08/13/road-trip-2019-new-mexicos-land-of-fire-and-ice/ Tue, 13 Aug 2019 11:05:00 +0000 https://blog.matthewgove.com/?p=750 Now I don’t knowI don’t knowI don’t know where I’m a gonna goWhen the volcano blow. Jimmy Buffett Set on top of the Continental Divide outside of Grants, New Mexico at an elevation of 8,000 feet, the Bandera Volcano is a fantastic adventure. Cool off, take in the fresh mountain […]

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Now I don’t know
I don’t know
I don’t know where I’m a gonna go
When the volcano blow.

Jimmy Buffett

Set on top of the Continental Divide outside of Grants, New Mexico at an elevation of 8,000 feet, the Bandera Volcano is a fantastic adventure. Cool off, take in the fresh mountain air, and escape the scorching summer desert heat.

A Violent Geological History

Approximately 10,000 years ago, the Bandera Volcano violently erupted, spewing magma and lava out the southern side of the mountain. As the lava flow cooled and hardened, it created the ice cave at the entrance of a collapsed lava tube. Because the lava rock is such an incredible insulator, the unique shape of the ice cave traps frigid air inside the cave. Temperatures inside the cave never rise above 31°F (-1°C), even in the dead of summer. Coming from the sizzling deserts of Phoenix, nothing felt more refreshing that walking down into the ice cave.

Descent into the Bandera Ice Cave
Descending into the Bandera Ice Cave

From the visitor’s center, there are two very short hikes to the volcano and the ice cave. Please be aware that both hikes are above 8,000 feet. If you are not accustomed to being at high elevation, you will be huffing and puffing even though both trails are relatively flat. I opted to head up the volcano first. The trail to the volcano is about half a mile one way and rises about 150 feet in elevation.

Caldera of the Bandera Volcano
First view of the Bandera Volcano from the end of the trail

One you reach the edge of the caldera, the first thing that really stands out is just how big the hole in the ground is. The volcano itself is 800 feet deep, which doesn’t sound like much. To put that into perspective, those are full-size pine trees growing inside the crater, as well as on the rim. The amount of force required to make a hole that big in the ground all at once is astonishing. The equivalent amount of dynamite or TNT required to make a hole that big is incomprehensible.

How Does the Bandera Volcano Compare to El Pinacate and Crater Lake?

I found it fascinating to compare the Bandera volcano to other volcanoes I’ve visited in the past. Most recently, in 2017, I visited maar craters (which are formed by volcanic explosions underground) at La Reserva de la Biosfera El Pinacate y Gran Desierto de Altar in Sonora, Mexico and at Crater Lake National Park in Oregon. The maar craters are much more symmetrical in shape. They are also much much bigger than the caldera at the Bandera Volcano. The Bandera Volcano is 800 feet deep and no more than 1,000 feet in diameter. Cráter El Elegante at the El Pinacate Reserve is about one mile in diameter and 850 feet deep. Crater Lake is about 5 miles in diameter and has an average depth of 1,200 feet.

From the volcano, you have to hike back to the visitor’s center to access the trailhead to the ice cave. The trail to the ice cave is an easy hike. It’s about 1/4 mile one way. Other than the 70 or so stairs you need to descend to enter the cave, there is no elevation change.

Like a Walk-In Freezer

As you descend the stairs into the ice cave, logic would dictate that the temperature would gradually drop as you descend into the cave. Amazingly, logic and reasoning will lead you astray here. If you’ve ever gone into a walk-in refrigerator or freezer, that’s essentially what happens when you enter the ice cave. You’ll cross a magic threshold as you descend and the temperature will instantly drop from whatever the ambient air temperature is (about 80°F when I was there this afternoon) down to about 30°F inside the cave.

Panorama of the Bandera Ice Cave
Inside the Ice Cave

The unique shape of the cave, coupled with the incredible insulating properties of the lava rock, traps cold air inside the cave and creates the walk-in freezer effect. The ice is over 20 feet deep and is roughly estimated to be up to 3,400 years old. The greenish teal tint to the ice comes from Arctic algae and alpine moss. Both are incredibly rare to find this far south.

If you’re ever passing though western New Mexico on Interstate 40, I highly recommend a stop at the Land of Fire and Ice. If you have additional time, driving the full length of NM-53 is a scenic and breathtaking alternate to Interstate 40. It passes through the Zuni Reservation and becomes AZ-61 once you cross into Arizona.

View Full Photo Album

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Weekly Severe Weather Outlook: October 7, 2013 https://blog.matthewgove.com/2013/10/07/weekly-severe-weather-outlook-october-7-2013/ Mon, 07 Oct 2013 21:00:12 +0000 https://blog.matthewgove.com/?p=277 With the beginning of the fall or “second” severe weather season here on the Great Plains, coupled with the tropics remaining quiet, I am going to shift this week’s discussion from the tropics back closer to home and talk about severe weather. The fall severe weather season started quite emphatically […]

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With the beginning of the fall or “second” severe weather season here on the Great Plains, coupled with the tropics remaining quiet, I am going to shift this week’s discussion from the tropics back closer to home and talk about severe weather. The fall severe weather season started quite emphatically this past weekend, with an EF-4 tornado in Nebraska and close to 4 feet of snow in parts of South Dakota.

Another powerful upper-level storm system is set to move across the United States later this week, and a cold front will sweep across parts of the central and northern plains between Thursday and Saturday. While it is still too early to say exactly what will happen, I would expect to see at least a few severe storms somewhere in that time frame.

Before we jump into the details, remember that to generate severe weather, you need four main ingredients: instability, moisture, lift, and shear. Let’s start by looking at the big picture forecast from the GFS for Thursday evening at 7 PM CDT. Below you will find the upper-level jet stream map, as well as a surface temperature/wind map, with the approximate location of the cold front labeled.

500 mb Wind and Height (GFS Forecast)

Surface Temperature and Wind (GFS Forecast)

While I normally use CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) to assess instability, predicted CAPE values are expected to be between 1000 and 1500 J/kg. These are relatively low CAPE values for the plains, but is enough to generate thunderstorms, especially if the front is powerful and can provide large amounts of upward forcing (the lifting mechanism). I have also included a plot of Theta-E to show the axis of higher instability across western Kansas and Nebraksa, extending south into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The easiest way to describe Theta-E is that it combines temperature and moisture into one index, which is essentially what instability is. Higher Theta-E values indicate where the warmer and more humid air is located.

GFS Predicted CAPE for Thursday, Oct. 10th at 7 PM CDT 

GFS Predicted Theta-E for Thursday, Oct. 10th at 7 PM CDT

One ingredient that is noticeably lacking in the latest model runs is moisture. Dewpoints ahead of the cold front will struggle to get to 60°F, if they can even get that high, which explains the low instability values. The cold front that swept through over the weekend left an extremely dry air mass over much of the plains, and this week’s storm system is coming in so close behind it that there is simply not enough time to get significant moisture return into Kansas and Nebraska from the Gulf of Mexico. A lack of moisture often results in LP (low-precipitation) or high-based storms, but it can prevent storms from forming altogether (which is unlikely to occur with this week’s system).

The final ingredient for severe weather is the wind shear. The axis of maximum shear contains shear values above 50 knots, which is plenty of shear to produce severe thunderstorms. The axis of maximum shear also aligns almost perfectly with the axis of maximum instability, which should set the stage for thunderstorms as the cold front sweeps through the area and provides lift.

GFS Predicted Dewpoint for Thursday, Oct. 10th at 7 PM CDT 

 

GFS Predicted Shear for Thursday, Oct. 10th at 7 PM CDT

So the bottom line at this point is that the most likely thing to happen would be for a squall line to form on the leading edge of the cold front, extending from western Nebraska back through western Kansas and into the Texas Panhandle. The most likely area to see severe weather is over western Kansas, where the four severe weather ingredients best come together. I am not anticipating a big outbreak with this system. Wind and hail will be the primary threats, but a few isolated tornadoes will certainly be possible. Vertical wind profiles will be very favorable for supercells, so if discrete cells can fire ahead of the main squall line, they could become supercellular despite the low instability. We are still a long ways out, and things will likely change, so stay tuned for more updates as we get closer.

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