As I began planning my COVID-19 cross-country road trip last fall, my goal was to avoid the worst of winter across the midwest and northeast. Little did I know that the North Pole would come down and so kindly greet me as I crossed Tornado Alley. The Polar Vortex shattered all kinds of records and left several states – most notably Texas – under a significant emergency.

What is the Polar Vortex?

The Polar Vortex is a large area of very cold air that circulates around both the North and South Poles in the wintertime. Under normal conditions, the stability of the atmosphere keeps the Polar Vortex locked around the poles.

However, certain triggers high above the Earth can cause the Polar Vortex to rapidly destabilize and plunge southward (northward in the Southern Hemisphere) into the mid-latitudes. One particularly powerful trigger occurred in late January, 2021.

What Triggers the Polar Vortex to Destabilize?

To understand how the Polar Vortex behaves, we must travel about 20 to 50 km above the earth’s surface, well above where any weather happens or any airplanes fly. This part of the atmosphere is known as the stratosphere, and contains the far outer ranges of where weather balloons can travel.

Temperatures in the stratosphere are frigid. In the past 40 years, meteorologists have measured temperatures as low as -96°C (-141°F) in the stratosphere. Those cold temperatures are what holds the Polar Vortex in place above the poles.

Armed with that knowledge, you can probably deduce what causes the Polar Vortex to destabilize: a sudden and significant warming of the stratosphere. That’s exactly what happened in January, 2021. In less than 24 hours, the stratosphere warmed by 45°C, or 81°F. It was one of the most extreme stratospheric temperature swings ever recorded.

The January, 2021 destabilization was so powerful that it caused the Polar Vortex to completely fracture in half. One half plunged into the central and eastern parts of the United States and Canada. The other half dove south into Siberia. Temperatures in Yakutsk, Russia dropped to a bone-chattering -58°C (-73°F).

Have We Seen a Polar Vortex Like This Before?

You don’t have to go back very far to find a similar meteorological setup. In January, 2015, meteorologists observed a similar warming of the stratosphere above the North Pole. Shortly thereafter, the Polar Vortex split, sending parts of the US, Canada, and Russia into one of their coldest and snowiest winters ever.

One particularly interesting phenomenon is how the strong Polar Vortex makes the east coast of both the US and Canada so vulnerable to major snowstorms. Indeed, two blizzards crippled New England on 27 January and 15 February, 2015. That was only the beginning of a true snowmageddon winter.

Between the two storms, many locations in southeast New England received between 6 and 8 feet of snow. Boston was one of many cities that ran out of places to dump their plowed snow. Even once summer arrived, you’d still see some snow piles driving around. There was so much snow piled so high it took that long to melt. Not surprisingly, we all got a pretty bad case of cabin fever that winter.

Thankfully, 2021 did not suffer the same fate.

A Beautiful Day Across Central New Mexico

If you hadn’t looked at the weather before hand, you would have had no idea what lay ahead with the Polar Vortex. Temperatures were unseasonably warm as I made my way across the high deserts of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico.

As I descended into Albuquerque, the mercury topped 70°F (21°C). Even with strong winds, it made for very pleasant driving. However, once I climbed back out of the valley, things really began to change. Thick mid-level clouds replaced the warm sun and blue skies. You definitely had that feeling of “something crazy is about to happen” in the air.

Santa Rosa, New Mexico: Running Head-On into a Freight Train of Cold Air

If you’ve ever driven Interstate 40 across New Mexico, you know that it’s largely a vast emptiness of open desert. Aside from the occasional blink-and-you-miss-it town, you’re at the mercy of Mother Nature.

As I got further east of Albuquerque, that layer of mid-level clouds got progressively thicker, darker, and lower. Despite the ominous outlook, temperatures remained quite pleasant, hovering around 65°F (18°C). As I approached the town of Santa Rosa, New Mexico, things took a dramatic turn.

When I lived in Oklahoma as a meteorology student, I saw my fair share of wild weather. Whether it was EF-5 tornadoes, ferocious wildfires, thundersleet, a quakenado, or massive hail, it was nothing like what I saw punching through the Polar Vortex. Just when I thought I had seen it all, Mother Nature threw me something new. Wrap your head around this temperature drop.

For a different perspective, here is that same data on a time-series graph. Click on the graph to enlarge it.

And to think, this was just the tip of the iceberg.

Entering the Freezing Fog Twilight Zone in Texas

Between storm chasing, road trips, and photography adventures, I’ve driven across the Texas panhandle more times than I can remember. My favorite part of the drive is looking out at the open prairie. You can see forever, and really gives you a sense of freedom being on the open road.

What a contrast this trip turned out to be! As a result of the Polar Vortex invasion, we were treated to one of the rarest, and surprisingly, most dangerous weather phenomena in Texas: freezing fog.

What is Freezing Fog?

Freezing fog is no different than regular fog, with one distinct difference. Water droplets in freezing fog are supercooled, meaning that they are below freezing, but remain in liquid form.

Why do they remain as a liquid if they’re below freezing? Water molecules freeze much more efficiently when they are in contact with other particles versus being pure water. These particles can include sand, dust, minerals in tap water, and objects such as trees and vehicles.

Fog forms when water vapor condenses out of the air. Those fog droplets are pure water, and therefore freeze less efficiently.

Why is Freezing Fog so Dangerous?

Whenever water remains in a supercooled state, it poses an enormous risk to both vehicles and airplanes. Remember that we just reviewed how water freezes much more efficiently when in contact with other particles than when it is pure water?

When a supercooled water droplet comes into contact with something other than pure water, it instantly freezes. While freezing fog coming into contact with trees and grasses is largely harmless, it’s a much different story when it freezes on roads, overpasses, and your vehicle. Black ice is dangerous enough to begin with. It’s even more so in places like Texas that are not used to seeing it.

How Does Freezing Fog Form in a Hot, Arid Climate Like West Texas?

Warm air can hold much more moisture than cold air. Most of that moisture is in the air as water vapor. We measure it with either the dewpoint or the relative humidity.

When air cannot hold any more moisture, it reaches saturation. Any more moisture that gets added after that condenses out either as clouds or precipitation. There are two ways to reach saturation.

• Add moisture to the environment. You see this when the bathroom fogs up as you take a shower.
• Lower the temperature of the environment. There is no better example of this than when you see your breath on a cold day. Your warm breath has more moisture than the ambient cold air can hold, so it condenses out as a fog.

The powerful cold front I had punched through in eastern New Mexico had swept across the Texas Panhandle only a few hours earlier. Even in an arid environment like West Texas, the temperature dropped so extremely and rapidly that the air could not hold what little moisture it had. As a result, the excess moisture condensed into a freezing fog.

It was almost as if you could see Mother Nature’s breath.

Enter the Polar Vortex Twilight Zone

Being used to crossing the Texas panhandle in the summertime made this experience even more unique. The freezing fog shrouded everything in an eerie haze reminiscent of some kind of twilight zone. In addition, the Polar Vortex had been in place just long enough to start coating the landscape with a visible layer of ice. The setting late afternoon sun made that haze even eerier.

The deeper I got into Texas, the longer the bitter cold Polar Vortex air had been entrenched in place. Temperatures continued to plummet. Not surprisingly, the fog got thicker the further east I got. The setting sun slowly swallowed you into that twilight zone of darkness.

Things got even weirder as I crossed into Oklahoma.

Oklahoma? More Like Snow-klahoma!

How many times have you seen something bad happen and thought, “that won’t happen here”? I’ve done it more times than I care to admit, including this trip. Once I crossed the state line into Oklahoma, it didn’t take long for me to realize the full seriousness and severity of the Polar Vortex. At a gas station in Elk City, I noticed that both the windshield cleaner and the hand sanitizer had frozen solid as I fought 50 mph (80 km/h) winds and -11°F (-24°C) wind chills to fill my gas tank.

The Polar Vortex Flexes Its Muscles

Less than 48 hours after arriving in Norman, the first of back-to-back snowstorms hit the Southern Plains. After just a few days of wild weather we had shattered all kinds of winter weather records.

Most notably, the National Weather Service measured the coldest temperatures ever recorded in the State of Oklahoma. The only Oklahoma saw colder temperatures occurred in the late 1800s, when it was still the Indian Territory.

Thankfully, the snow didn’t stick around for very long. Temperatures rapidly warmed as the Polar Vortex pulled out of the area. In true Oklahoma fashion, we were walking around in shorts and t-shirts less than a week later as temperatures soared to 74°F (23°C).

Having Fun with Physics During a Power Outage in Sub-Zero Polar Vortex Temperatures

It often feels daunting when you lose power during a storm. Initial panic sets in that much more when the power goes out when it’s -5°F (-21°C) out and blowing over 30 mph (50 km/h). That’s the exact situation we found ourselves in the middle of the heaviest snow during my stay in Oklahoma.

I awoke in the middle of the night. As I reached for my phone to check the time, I noticed that it felt chilly in the house. I figured the thermostat had been turned down at night, and I didn’t think much of it. It was about 5:15 AM, so I decided to check the weather on my phone to see how cold it had gotten.

Much to my surprise, my phone could not connect to the internet. Not only was the WiFi out, I had no cell service, either. Being in the middle of a city of 125,000 people, something was very wrong.

I sat up and noticed that all of the night lights in the hallway were flickering and and off. I kept thinking, was I back in the twilight zone I was in driving here? At that point, I knew it was only a matter of time before the power company pulled the plug.

Less than 5 minutes later, the power went out for good. All you could hear was the wind, the snow, and the transformers blowing up nearby. At that point, there wasn’t much I could do, so I rolled over and went back to sleep.

Physics and Thermodynamics: An Alternate Source of Entertainment

If you’ve ever studied physics, chemistry, or thermodynamics, you’ve probably heard of the ideal gas law. While it has its limitations, the law is a good approximation of many gases, including air, under many conditions. Mathematically, it is defined as:

pV = nRT

where

• p is the pressure
• V is the volume
• n is the amount of gas
• R is the ideal gas constant
• T is the temperature

Now, here’s where the fun starts. I slept on an air mattress while I was in Norman. Because the power was out, the heat in the house did not work, so the house cooled off. In terms of the ideal gas law, we know that R is already constant. Inside the sealed air mattress, both the amount of air (n) and the volume (V) are also constant. We can reduce the ideal gas law to a simple relationship.

p ~ T

In layman’s terms, that equation just means that as temperature changes, the pressure will change in the same manner, and vice versa. We were now about 3 hours into the power outage, and the house was really starting to feel cold. As the temperature continued to drop, I could feel the air mattress getting softer and softer until I could feel my butt hit the floor underneath the mattress.

Here’s the best part. Shortly after 8 AM, the power came back on. It was cold in the house, so I decided to stay in my nice warm sleeping bag until the heat could work its magic. As the house warmed back up, the air mattress reinflated as the pressure inside increased. Before I knew it, the ideal gas law had lifted my backside up off the floor, and the house had returned to its normal temperature.

Up Next

As memorable as my stopover in Oklahoma has been, this is not the end of my dance with the Polar Vortex and Old Man Winter. Next week, we’ll continue east and see if it really was that wise of a decision to go camping in the mountains in Kentucky in February…in the middle of an ice storm. All that and more right here next Friday at 9 AM Pacific Time. See you then.

Top Photo: Heavy Snow Falls During the Polar Vortex
Norman, Oklahoma – February, 2021

The post Pioneering Peril: A Pandemic Polar Vortex in Tornado Alley appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Lessons From My Road Trip to Oregon Last Summer

This trip is actually not my first foray out of Arizona during the COVID-19 pandemic. Last summer, I drove to Oregon to get a reprieve from Arizona’s summer COVID-19 spike and its relentless summer heat. In 2020, we had over 50 days of high temperatures above 110°F (44°C), which shattered the old record of 33. The Oregon trip was eye-popping, making me realize the complete callousness and carelessness of Arizona’s attitude toward the pandemic.

What a Difference Crossing the State Line Makes

On the Oregon road trip, my first gas stop was in Kingman, Arizona. I almost always stop in Kingman on trips that take me to California and Nevada. Kingman has always been safe and welcoming, and I have never once felt any hint of sketchiness or being unsafe.

I followed the same rules on the Oregon trip as I did this road trip. As a result, I wore N-95 masks every gas stop because I did not want to bring COVID-19 to Oregon with me. As I gassed up in Kingman, I noticed that a crowd had started to gather around me. They did not look happy, either. By the time I finished pumping the gas, the crowd was circling me much in the same way a group of lions closes in on a wounded gazelle. Thankfully, I left without incident.

Who Knew What to Expect Crossing into Nevada

Fast forward a few hours. I’m north of Las Vegas, and it’s time for my second gas stop. As I pulled into the gas station, every pump had a handwritten sign on it. That sign said in both English and Spanish, “No Mask, No Service”. I thought okay, feeling much less sketched out now.

Shortly after I started fueling, a car pulled into the other side of the pump. I was cautiously curious to see what would happen, since I had received death threats over masks in similar situations in Arizona. A middle-aged couple got out of the car, and they were both masked. This was the exact moment it started setting in just how completely batshit crazy Arizona was.

The lady in the other car started pumping gas, and the man started walking towards the convenience store. I noticed that he turned around after he got about half way to the convenience store. As he approached the car, he said “Honey, can you hand me my mask? I can’t go in without it.” That completely blew my mind. I was no more than 50 or 60 miles (80 or 100 km) from the Arizona border. What alternate universe have I ported into?

Oregon Took COVID-19 Seriously, Too

Even in very rural areas, both Oregon and Nevada took things seriously. Everyone wore masks in public, and you could see COVID-19 precautions in place everywhere. People kept their distance and largely stayed out of indoor public places. I felt things were much more controlled in Oregon and Nevada, and felt safer as a result.

All right, back to the present day.

Arizona

Things on this road trip were going to be different than the Oregon trip. So much has changed in just the six months since I drove to Oregon. Most notably, we now have several highly-effective vaccines available, as well as new antiviral treatments.

You don’t have to be on the freeway for long to realize how the pandemic has halted recreational travel. Unlike my summer road trip, my route this trip largely confined me to the Interstate system, whereas I only spent about 45 minutes of the 22-hour drive to Oregon on the Interstate.

You’ll quickly notice that once you’re out of the city, traffic on the freeway is almost exclusively semi trucks and big rigs. This is especially prevalent once you get on a major cross-country artery such as Interstate 40. It’s wintertime, and the pandemic is keeping everybody at home.

Even Mother Nature came through to help get the trip off to a good start. She treated us to spectacular morning driving conditions east of Flagstaff.

New Mexico

Entering New Mexico, I expected a very similar experience to the one I had in Nevada last summer. New Mexico did not disappoint. Right at the state line, they greet you with several signs.

• New Mexicans take COVID-19 seriously
• Masks are required statewide
• People arriving from out of state must quarantine
• If you break the rules, they will fine you.

I suspect that the reason New Mexico keeps reminding you of the rules is that if you exclude the international border, it’s surrounded on two of its remaining three sides by states that routinely flout COVID-19 restrictions and mock the pandemic. Additionally, both east-west arteries through New Mexico – Interstate 40 and Interstate 10 – directly connect those neighboring states that have made a mockery of the pandemic.

Even once you get away from the state line, you will be constantly reminded of the ongoing pandemic. Electronic signs in front of businesses instructed people to mask up, keep your distance, and stay safe. Interestingly, I also felt a sense of optimism in the air as businesses looked forward to adding capacity as COVID-19 cases continue to decline.

Ironically, the only time I really felt sketchy on the entire cross-country road trip occurred in one of the states I expected to feel the safest. The town of Tucumcari sits right on Interstate 40 about 30 miles west of the Texas state line. As I pulled into a gas station in town, I noticed that all of the vehicles there had Texas license plates. It was basically a repeat of what happened in Kingman last summer. It’s unnerving as hell having the angry crowd gathering around you, but once again, I was very grateful to get in and out without incident.

A Sneak Preview: An Icy Reception from the North Pole in Santa Rosa

As I passed through Santa Rosa, New Mexico, I punched through the strongest Polar Vortex to hit the US in recent memory. It brought some of the most wild weather I have ever seen on a road trip.

• Temperature dropped 45°F in 15 minutes
• Freezing fog leads into the twilight zone in the Texas Panhandle
• Wind chills dropped to -35°F (-37°C).
• The State of Oklahoma measured its coldest temperature ever.

Tune in next week for the full story, including pictures.

Texas

The Lone Star State continues to be in complete denial about the events of 2020. While I did not stop in Texas, you can see plenty from the highway as you pass through.

If you were dropped into the Texas panhandle without context, you would have no idea there was a once-in-a-century pandemic going on. The “Twilight Zone” effect from the freezing fog and the polar vortex only made this visit to Texas even weirder.

• Bars, restaurants, and stores in Amarillo were absolutely packed.
• There was not a mask, an effort to stay socially distanced, or any other attempts to contain COVID-19 to be found.
• You’ll see all kinds of political pro-Trump, anti-pandemic, and stolen election signs on the side of the highway.

The weather only continued to deteriorate as I got into Oklahoma.

Western Oklahoma

I always feel like I’m home when I cross the state line from Texas into Oklahoma. It was my route home after so many memorable storm chases, after all. While this road trip did feel a bit like storm chasing, tornadoes were the last thing on my mind as I headed back to my old stomping grounds. While I had prepared for cold weather, I was most certainly not ready for the bitter temperatures that welcomed me back to Oklahoma.

Shortly after dusk, I pulled off the freeway for one of my final gas stops of the day in Elk City, Oklahoma. When you exit onto the eastbound I-40 business loop, you have to travel for several miles through the open prairie before you reach Elk City proper. The gas station I had chosen was west of Elk City, in the open prairie.

Pulling in, I glanced up at the thermometer in the truck. The outside temperature had dropped to 14°F (-10°C). I thought to myself, no big deal, these temperatures are nothing new to me. It doesn’t take that long to pump a tank of gas. I put on my heavy coat, winter hat, and warm gloves. When I opened the door to step out, it completely took my breath away.

There’s a Reason the Chorus of the Musical Oklahoma! is so Famous

If you’ve ever driven across western Oklahoma, you’ll know that it is flat and open. When the wind blows, there is nothing to knock it down. No trees, no hills, no barriers. Nothing. In fact, the terrain slopes ever so slightly downhill as you go from west to east. When the wind has a westerly component, gravity can actually help accelerate the wind as it comes down the prairie.

What I had failed to realize while I was driving was that the polar wind was whipping down the Oklahoma prairie at about 50 mph (80 km/h). While I was dressed appropriately for the cold, I was not dressed for that kind of wind. The conditions in Elk City that evening combined to yield a wind chill of -11°F (-24°C). To add insult to injury, I had parked so the filler nozzle was on the upwind side of the truck, so there was nowhere to hide from the wind.

This was the exact moment it hit me just how severe this Polar Vortex would be. As I clamored back into the truck to warm up, barely able to feel my face, fingers, and toes, I happened to glance down. Both the windshield cleaner and hand sanitizer the gas station had put out were frozen solid. Not slushy or syrupy. Solid.

By the time I got to my friend’s house in Norman, temperatures had dropped into the single digits and bottomed out around -5°F (-21°C) the next morning. And that was only the beginning.

Up Next

Tune in next time to hear the full details of my tango with the Polar Vortex. Temperatures were much more reminiscent of northern Alaska in February than the southern plains. We’ll enter the twilight zone in Texas. In Oklahoma, experience power outages as wind chills dropped to -35°F (-37°C) while getting buried under a foot of snow.

Then, in true Oklahoma fashion, less than a week later, we were walking around in t-shirts and shorts as temperatures soared to 75°F (24°C). See you next week.

Top Photo: The Morning Sun Illuminates Palo Duro Canyon
Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post COVID-19 Road Trip Journal: Wild Weather in the Wild West appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Last week, we looked at 15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Western United States. If you’re on the east coast, it’s your turn today. Let’s look at 15 COVID-friendly adventures in the Eastern United States that are proven to boost your mental health and refresh your soul.

A Word of Caution About Adventuring During the Pandemic

Just because we’re talking about fun adventures today does not mean it’s a green light to let loose. Don’t forget we’re still in the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic. Please consider the following precautions to ensure your safety during the COVID crisis.

• Stay close to home and stick to day trips.
• Only travel with people you live with. This is not the time to invite all of your friends.
• Obey all state and local COVID-19 restrictions, ordinances, and mandates.
• Pack food, drinks, and hand sanitizer so you don’t need to interact with the public.
• Don’t forget to be prepared for non-COVID hazards. Snow and ice can negatively impact many of these adventures.
• Always check the weather forecast and road conditions when traveling during the winter.

Now, let’s kick those Covid blues and put your mental health on the fast track to happiness.

1. Historic Route 66 – Illinois, Missouri, and Oklahoma

Is there anything more American than getting your kicks on Route 66? The eastern half of Historic Route 66 runs connects Chicago and Oklahoma City. The route runs along what is currently Interstates 44 and 55. However, you’ll find a much more authentic experience if you get off the freeway and drive the original road.

You’ll find a wide diversity of landscapes along the way. From the rolling hills of eastern Oklahoma to Missouri’s Ozark Mountains to the agricultural plains in Illinois, there is no shortage of great photo opportunities.

2. Tamiami Trail – Florida

Prior to the construction of Interstate 75, the Tamiami Trail was the only route connecting Tampa and Miami. You’ll find the best photo ops as the Tamiami Trail winds its way through the guts of the Everglades. Find a safe spot to pull off on the side of the road. Sit, watch, and enjoy the solitude. You’ll see alligators, birds, fish, lizards, and much more.

In addition, the many parks, preserves, and wildlife refuges on the west coast of the Florida peninsula make for excellent side trips. Just a few of my favorites include the JN “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel Island, Big Cypress National Preserve east of Naples, and and the Terra Ceia State Park and Aquatic Preserve north of Bradenton. On the Miami side, stop off at the Everglades and Francis S. Taylor Wildlife Refuges for additional nature and landscape photo ops.

3. Newfound Gap Road – North Carolina and Tennessee

Newfound Gap Road runs through the heart of Great Smoky Mountains National Park. It connects Cherokee, North Carolina with Gatlinburg, Tennessee. Pull off at any of the turnouts to find classic mountain views, lush forest scenery, and refreshing rivers. The best views are at the summit of Newfound Gap, which sits right on the state line. Be aware though, it can be crowded there.

To get away from the crowds, consider hiking a short ways down the Appalachian Trail. In addition to a bit more solace, you’ll get views that most others won’t see. You can also find more great views along the road to Clingman’s Dome. However, Clingman’s Dome can be busy and the road often closes in the winter due to snow and ice.

Please check road conditions before going in the winter. The road is narrow, with many sharp curves and steep switchbacks. The summit of Newfound Gap is over 6,000 feet (1,830 meters) above sea level and often closes in the winter due to snow and ice. If you’re not comfortable driving in snow and ice, I recommend avoiding this route.

4. Kancamagus Highway – New Hampshire

The Kancamagus Highway runs through the heart of the White Mountain National Forest in the shadow of Mt. Washington. While northern New England is best known for its spectacular fall colors, the Kancamagus Highway offers beautiful photo ops year round.

While you’re in the area, I also highly recommend driving north up Interstate 93 to Franconia. You’ll be treated to breathtaking views of the White Mountains. On the east end of the Kancamagus, stop and photograph any of the many covered bridges in the Conway area.

For the more adventurous, take a drive up Mount Washington during the warmer months. At the summit, you’ll see where some of the most extreme weather in the world is observed and studied. Scientists measured a wind gust of 231 mph (372 km/h) at the summit of Mt. Washington on 12 April, 1934. That record stood as the strongest wind gust ever measured on earth until the 3 May, 1999 tornado in Oklahoma. Today, it still stands as the strongest non-tornadic wind gust ever recorded.

5. Great River Road – Arkansas and Tennessee

Why risk exposing yourself to COVID-19 on one of the Mississippi River cruises when you can drive it instead? While you can drive along the river for its entire length, the best scenery is in Tennessee and Arkansas, with southern Missouri close behind it. Travel at your own pace, stop for some great photo ops, and find a quiet place for a nice picnic lunch along the river.

6. Discovery Route – South Carolina

Come out and explore everything South Carolina has to offer. The Discovery Route runs from Walhalla, in the far northwest, to Charleston. Along the way, you’ll be presented with photo ops of mountains, oceans, agriculture, rivers, and more. Stop at any of the state’s roadside fruit stands for a treat you won’t soon forget. If you’re there in August or September, South Carolina’s peaches are absolutely to die for.

7. Old King’s Highway – Massachusetts

Get an in-depth and hands-on introduction to Cape Cod’s culture, food, and scenery. Starting at the Sagamore Bridge, follow US-6 to its eastern terminus in Provincetown. Get off and explore historic towns on Massachusetts Highway 6A. Pack a picnic and have lunch at one of the Cape’s many world-famous beaches. As an added bonus, Cape Cod is headed into its offseason right now, so you’ll avoid the summer crowds.

The highlight of the drive is the Cape Cod National Seashore. Stop off anywhere on the eastern shores of Cape Cod. You’ll find incredible aerial and beach-level photo ops of the seashore. Taking a calming walk on the beach and enjoying the fresh sea air is a great temporary escape from reality, too.

8. Delaware Water Gap – New Jersey and Pennsylvania

The Delaware Water Gap is a breathtaking gap in the Appalachians where Interstate 80 crosses the Delaware River. While the area right around I-80 is popular due to its ease of access, the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area extends north most of the way to the New York state line. With so much room to spread out, there is no shortage of spots to tuck yourself away from crowds.

Taking a hike, going for a swim, and enjoying a relaxing afternoon on the boat are just a few of the many outdoor activities available at the Delaware Water Gap. Just choose your side of the river carefully, as river crossings are few and far between. Most of the recreation area is on the New Jersey side of the river, but the main north-south highway is on the Pennsylvania side.

9. Blue Ridge Parkway – Virginia and North Carolina

The Blue Ridge Parkway is one of the most scenic and well-known drives east of the Mississippi River. Stretching from Waynesboro, Virginia to Cherokee, North Carolina, there are new scenic vistas around every turn. Explore side expeditions including hiking trails, waterfalls, mountain biking, wildflowers, camping and much more.

If that’s not enough, there are national parks at each end of the Blue Ridge Parkway. At its northern terminus, take in the magnificent sights at Shenandoah National Park. At the south end, explore the majestic mountains of Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

10. Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway – Maine

Sitting in western Maine just a stone’s throw from both New Hampshire and Quebec, the Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway is a true hidden gem. While the scenery is gorgeous any time of year, it is truly exceptional during the fall colors season. Make sure you stop at the Height of Land Overlook and take in the breathtaking views of Lake Mooselookmeguntic.

If you have additional time, find additional scenic scenery on Old Canada Road (US-201). Running from Skowhegan to the Canadian border, there are ample photo ops featuring mountains, rivers, forests, and more. Keep in mind that the US-Canada border is currently closed to all non-essential travel.

11. Panhandle Scenic Drive – Florida

If you’re looking for a relaxing beach getaway, Florida’s Panhandle Scenic Drive is for you. Take in the ocean, beaches, bays, and bayous as you make your way along US-98 between Apalachicola and the Alabama State Line. Once you get away from the population centers, you’ll pass through marshes, forests, and wildlife refuges.

Don’t be afraid to get off the beaten path a bit. For an even more unique escape, explore some of these areas in a boat. The entire coast of Florida is dotted with small islands that are only accessible by boat. What better way to boost your mental health than spending a day in the fresh salty air, away from civilization.

12. Talimena Scenic Byway – Oklahoma and Arkansas

Stretching across the top of a mountain ridge at an elevation of 2,000 to 3,000 feet, the Talimena Scenic Drive is hands down the best place in Oklahoma to view fall foliage. Listed as one of America’s National Scenic Byways, the 100 kilometer (60 mile) drive winds through the beautiful Ouachita National Forest and the majestic Kiamichi Mountains, connecting Talihina, Oklahoma to Mena, Arkansas.

If you’ve ever driven the Blue Ridge Parkway, you’ll be right at home on the Talimena Scenic Byway. There are stunning aerial views of mountains, valleys, forests, and farmland around every corner. Find a quiet spot to pull off, have a picnic lunch, breathe the fresh mountain air, and watch the world go by. Your mental health will thank you.

Note: The Talimena Scenic Drive is not maintained in the winter. If there are concerns about snow and ice, please consider driving US-59 through the valley instead.

13. Merritt Parkway – Connecticut

You may think it’s hard to partake in COVID-friendly adventures in such a densely populated area that is so close to New York City. Advertised as the Gateway to New England, the Merritt Parkway was the first limited access divided highway in Connecticut. It is one of the oldest scenic parkways in the United States.

Even though there are not a lot of places to tuck yourself away from the crowds, it’s still a great scenic adventure that will give you a great escape from the hustle and bustle of the city.

14. Historic National Road – Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio

The Historic National Road is a bit of a journey back in time through the Heartland of America. While you can choose the modern route on Interstate 70, why not break the monotony of the freeway? Much like Route 66, you can still drive the original Historic National Road, US-40, today.

The Historic National Road stretches from St. Louis nearly all the way to Pittsburgh. You’ll get plenty of photo ops as you pass through forests, plains, farmland, small towns, big cities, and much more.

15. Green Mountains Scenic Tour – Vermont and New Hampshire

There’s something special about the tranquility and quaintness of northern New England. That’s especially true in Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom. Start at the Canadian Border in Derby Line, Vermont and wind your way south along US-5. You’ll pass through the heart of northern New England’s rich history and culture.

You’ll have a choice when you get to St. Johnsbury, Vermont. Continue south along US-5 to take in the scenery right along the Vermont side of the Connecticut River. Alternatively, get on Interstate 93, hop across the river, and explore New Hampshire’s beautiful White Mountains and national forests. Rest assured that regardless of which option you choose, you’ll return home feeling relaxed and refreshed.

Note: While the US-Canada border is currently closed, I highly recommend that you go check out the national parks near Magog and Sherbrooke, Québec once the COVID crisis ends.

Conclusion

During the COVID crisis, it’s more important than ever to take care of your mental health. Getting out in the sunshine and fresh air to take in beautiful scenery is proven to be one of the best ways not only to boost your mental health, but make yourself feel good overall. Recharge your batteries and refresh your soul. Take proper COVID precautions, and you should have a fun and safe adventure.

Top Photo: A Sunny Winter Day at Woodneck Beach
Falmouth, Massachusetts – January, 2015

The post 15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Eastern United States appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

With all international travel and most domestic travel on hold, look closer to home for happiness. Interestingly, some of the photography adventures I have taken in years past check all of the boxes for Covid safety. What a perfect way to boost your mental health! Today, let’s have a look at fifteen destinations in the western United States to get outside and explore. In addition, you can treat your mental health away from the crowds and from the safety of your Covid bubble.

A Word of Caution About Adventuring During COVID

Just because we’re talking about fun adventures today does not mean it’s a green light to let loose. Stay close to home and stick to day trips. This is not the appropriate time to be pin-balling all over the country. Don’t invite all of your friends to come with you, either. Instead, stick to small groups of people you live with, who are already in your Covid bubble. Pack plenty of food, drinks, and sanitizer so you don’t need to stop anywhere.

Please obey all local Covid restrictions, ordinances, and mandates. I know it feels like so many of them have been politicized, but they are there for a reason. Many state and national parks have their own restrictions as well. You will likely be fined if you violate restrictions on state or federal land.

Finally, don’t forget to plan for any hazards you would normally encounter during non-COVID times. Many of these destinations can close unexpectedly due to snow and ice in the winter. Speaking of which, know the tire chain requirements for any states you’ll be traveling through. Carry chains with you and know how to chain up yourself if you’re expecting to be in snow country. If you have any doubts, it’s probably best to stay home.

Now, let’s kick those Covid blues and put your mental health on the fast track to happiness.

1. Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument – Arizona

The Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument sits on the US-Mexico border at the south end of Arizona’s Highway 85. It is the only place in the United States to see the rare organ pipe cactus. While the cactus itself is fairly common south of the border, even the mild winters in Arizona’s low deserts have proven to be too cold for it.

The national monument is also home to an incredible diversity of rare species of flora, fauna, and surprisingly, fish. The Quitobaquito Oasis is home to species of fish that cannot be found anywhere else in the world. The rarest of all is the Sonoyta pupfish. Named for the Mexican town that sits across the border from the monument, Quitobaquito is the only known place in the world that they inhabit.

Note: The access roads to Quitobaquito and Dos Lomitas Ranch are currently closed due to construction of new border fencing.

You’ll find the best photo ops along the Ajo Mountain drive. The 33 km (21 mi) guided tour starts across Highway 85 from the Visitors Center. Along the way, you’ll stop and see the best of what the Sonoran Desert has to offer. If you’re looking to get off the beaten path a little more, consider the North Puerto Blanco Drive. It starts from behind the Visitors Center, but beware that you’ll need a high clearance 4×4 to tackle it.

2. Pacific Coast Highway – Oregon and California

Is there any better feeling than the freedom of a drive up the coast? The fresh ocean air is bound to give anyone’s mental health a shot in the arm. In the age of Covid, keep your stops away from towns and population centers. Find a quiet pull-out at the top of a bluff, and enjoy that nice picnic lunch that you brought from home as you watch the world go by.

3. Burr Trail – Utah

The Burr Trail winds over 120 km (76 mi) through the guts of Utah’s breathtaking backcountry. Starting in the town of Boulder, you’ll pass through the Grand Staircase – Escalante National Monument, Capitol Reef National Park, and the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area.

Drive through beautiful canyons, across stunning mesas, and descend the infamous Burr Trail Switchbacks, which drop close to 1,000 feet elevation in just 1 mile. At a 13% grade on a narrow dirt track, the switchbacks satisfy the hunger of even the most adventurous. You’ll quickly see why it’s rated one of the most scenic drives in Utah and the ultimate exercise in social distancing.

4. Palo Duro Canyon – Texas

Known as the Grand Canyon’s Little Brother, Palo Duro Canyon is the second largest canyon in the United States. Meaning “strong wood” in Spanish, Palo Duro Canyon offers outdoor activities for everyone, including hiking, mountain biking, and horseback riding. The entrance to the state park is a short drive south of Amarillo on Interstate 27. And unlike the Grand Canyon, you can actually drive the bottom of Palo Duro Canyon in a normal passenger car.

You’ll get plenty of great photo opportunities from both the rim and the bottom of the canyon. I recommend arriving close to either sunrise or sunset in order to take advantage of soft, low light on the canyon’s walls. Snap some pictures from the lookouts near the Visitors’ Center before starting your descent into the canyon.

5. Great Salt Plains – Oklahoma

Take a journey back in time at Oklahoma’s Great Salt Plains. The salt pan is a remnant of prehistoric times, when a vast ocean covered what is now Oklahoma. In the summertime, you can venture out on the salt flats and dig for selenite crystals. The Great Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge is the only place in the world where you’ll find hourglass-shaped selenite crystals.

Fast-forward to today, and you’ll find a state park, a national wildlife refuge, and a large lake. The Great Salt Plains are a great spot to go hiking, swimming, and boating. However, my favorite activity is to take the quiet and tranquil scenic drive through the salt marshes off of Highway 11. You’ll truly be at one with your camera and with nature. If you’re there at the right time of year, Oklahoma is a popular stop along a major bald eagle migration route, too.

6. Apache Trail – Arizona

Take breathtaking drive through the rugged terrain of Arizona’s Superstition Mountains. Originally built as a stagecoach road in the early 20th century, the Apache Trail was named after the Apache Indians who used this same route to cross the mountains. Today, it is Arizona’s State Route 88, an easy day trip from Phoenix.

Much of the Apache Trail is unpaved, but passable in a standard passenger car. There are several steep, narrow hills and one-lane bridges. My best advice to you is that if you don’t like heights, don’t look down. When you reach the end of the trail, you’ll be rewarded with spectacular views of Theodore Roosevelt Lake.

7. Death Valley’s Badwater Backcountry – California

You don’t appreciate exactly how extreme an environment Death Valley is until you travel through its backcountry. Head west out of Pahrump, Nevada, and follow California Highways 178, 127, and 190. You’ll wind up in the heart of Death Valley National Park in the aptly-named town of Furnace Creek, California. Furnace Creek measured the world-record high temperature of 134°F (57°C) on 10 July, 1913. You’ll also pass through Badwater Basin, which marks the lowest point in the United States, at 86 meters (282 ft) below sea level.

Before setting out, please know what you’re getting yourself into. You will be driving through some of the most remote, desolate backcountry in the world. There will be times that you’re more than 120 km (75 mi) from the nearest town.

Gas up before you leave Pahrump, as it could be over 320 km (200 mi) before you see another gas station. Stay hydrated, as dehydration and heat exhaustion are possible even in the winter. And if you break down? You better know how to fix it or have a satellite phone. There is no cell service inside Death Valley National Park, and seeing other cars in the backcountry is extremely rare.

8. White Sands National Park – New Mexico

Home to the world’s largest gypsum dunefield, White Sands is a true natural wonder. Sitting just outside of Alamogordo, New Mexico, it’s one of the only National Parks that is very slowly moving downwind.

Are you wondering what exactly gypsum is? It looks like salt, and feels like sand, but is in fact neither of them. Gypsum is a soft mineral composed mainly of calcium sulfate. In fact, the “sand” at White Sands National Park is soluble in water. If you put a handful of it into a glass of water, it will dissolve.

9. Antelope Hills – Oklahoma

The Antelope Hills are a small, but important landmark in the history of both Oklahoma and the United States as a whole. In addition to marking the westernmost point settlers could claim in Oklahoma during the land rush of the 1800s, it also marked the US-Mexico border.

At the time, it separated the United States’ Indian Territory from Mexico’s Alta California territory. Alta California was mostly comprised of what is currently Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. The United States acquired the territory as part of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, which ended the Mexican-American War in 1848.

The dirt road to the Antelope Hills is passable in a standard passenger car and is generally void of other traffic. However, be aware that 18-wheelers sometimes use it as a shortcut to access a nearby oil rig, so the road can be extremely washboarded at times. If you’re in the area, I encourage you to visit the nearby Black Kettle National Grassland and the Washita Battlefield National Historic Site.

10. Lee’s Ferry and Marble Canyon – Arizona

If you’re looking to avoid crowds at the Grand Canyon, make a stop near Page at Lee’s Ferry and Marble Canyon. Sitting just outside the boundaries of Grand Canyon National Park, there is plenty of space to keep yourself socially-distanced from the few other people that may be there.

Pull up a chair on the beach and stick your feet in the water to cool off. Have a picnic, read a book, or just relax and enjoy the solitude. If you’re feeling exceptionally brave, take a swim. Lee’s Ferry is only a few miles downstream of the Glen Canyon Dam, so water temperature usually top out around 45°F (7°C), even in the dead of summer.

As you leave Lee’s Ferry, stop for a few photos at the Navajo Bridge. The foot bridge provides stunning views of Marble Canyon from 500 feet above the Colorado River. Be aware that the bridge can occasionally be crowded, though large crowds are mostly a summer phenomenon.

11. Scenic Highway 12 – Utah

Utah’s Scenic Highway 12 is probably the most spectacular drive I’ve ever taken. It’s well-deserving of its distinction as an All-American Road. You’ll see the stunning rock formations near Zion National Park, the famous hoodoos of Bryce Canyon, majestic mountains, lush forests, and much more.

If Scenic Highway 12 leaves you craving more, the highway provides easy access to Zion National Park, Bryce Canyon National Park, the Burr Trail, Capitol Reef National Park, and Utah’s Scenic Highway 95. Do you have a 4×4 and a stronger quest for adventure? Many of Utah’s famous scenic backways, including Hell’s Backbone and Hole-in-the-Rock, can be found right off of Highway 12.

12. US-395 – California

Many travel guides properly designate US-395 in California as an All-American Road Trip. Running along the base of the Sierra Nevada Mountains from Ridgecrest to Lake Tahoe, there is no shortage of beautiful scenery.

After starting on the valley floor, you’ll pass through deserts, grasslands, and pine forests as you ascend to nearly 2,500 meters (8,200 feet) elevation at Conway Summit. For more than just a driving trip, US-395 offers plenty of side excursions. Turn off and explore the Alabama Hills, Inyo or Stanislaus National Forests, or one of the roads to the many ski resorts along the way.

In the wintertime, please check the road conditions for every road you plan to explore in this area. The Sierra Nevada are notorious for their massive snowstorms, which often strike fast and hard. As a result, many roads close in the winter, and you don’t want to get cut-off or stranded.

Additionally, I also recommend you carry tire chains at all times during the winter months. California requires them for most vehicles when it snows in the Sierra. If you have any doubts about snow, consider driving US-95 as an alternate. It runs parallel to US-395 on the Nevada side of the state line at a much lower elevation. It’s not quite as scenic, but it sure beats sitting around at home.

13. Gloss Mountain State Park – Oklahoma

Don’t let the fact that it’s less than 1 square mile fool you. Gloss Mountain State Park packs a punch for its small size. Take the short hike to the top of the escarpment for spectacular 360-degree views of the surrounding prairie. It’s an incredible spot to watch the sunset. Alternatively, find a quiet spot to have a picnic, ponder your thoughts, or meditate.

When you’re done, drive the Gloss Mountain Loop. The dirt track loop is part of Oklahoma’s Great Plains Trail system. While not part of the state park, it offers a unique perspective of the surrounding area, and plenty of good photo ops. You’ll probably meet a few friendly cows along the way, too.

14. Mogollon Rim – Arizona

I can only describe the Mogollon Rim as a therapeutic escape. At nearly 8,000 feet (2,200) meters above sea level, I have always used it to escape Phoenix’s scorching summer heat. There’s something truly magical when you feel the cool summer breezes through the ponderosa pines. Using that logic, it would make a great escape from Covid life as well.

The Mogollon Rim Road, Forest Road 300, runs about 75 km (45 mi) right along the edge of the rim. It passes through the Coconino and Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests, offering an incredible diversity of viewpoints and photo ops. Find a quiet spot with a great view at one of the many turnouts along the Rim Road or head over to one of the area’s many lakes and fully immerse yourself in your escape.

Note: The Mogollon Rim Road closes for the winter after the first major snowfall and usually re-opens sometime in April.

15. Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge – Oklahoma

The Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge was one of my go-to getaways when I lived in Oklahoma. Start your day with a drive up Mt. Scott for a bird’s eye overview of the refuge. At 2,500 feet (760 meters) above sea level, the summit of Mt. Scott is the highest point in the main body of Oklahoma. From the top, you’ll get a breathtaking 360 degree view of the wildlife refuge, the Wichita Mountains, and nearby towns.

Next, make your way through the wildlife refuge on State Highway 49. Stop at any of the lakes, information stations, or pullouts. You’ll often see buffalo and longhorn cattle roaming the grasslands. There is never a shortage of wildlife for bird watchers, especially during the bald eagle migrations through Oklahoma. Additionally, keep an eye out for prairie dogs peeking out from their burrows.

If you still have some time, visit Great Plains State Park and Quartz Mountain State Park. Both are located just west of the Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge. They highlight the true diversity of the landscapes across southwestern Oklahoma. You’ll see much of the same wildlife and achieve the same rewarding escape.

Conclusion

I can’t stress enough the importance of taking care of your mental health during this Covid winter. There will be dark days, as well as times that feel hopeless. Having an outlet to give you a temporary escape from reality and put a smile back on your face is one of the best decisions you can make for yourself.

Top Photo: Gorgeous Landscapes at the Rainbow Point Overlook
Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah – May, 2017

The post 15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Western United States appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Panicking only leads to making poor decisions, which in the context of storm chasing, can lead to injury and even death. You can read about my hairiest storm chasing moments, such as the time I got caught in five and a half inch diameter hail and the time a cluster of three tornadic supercells tried to merge right on top of me and cut off my only route home. Had panic set in, the outcome may have been different. My point here is that the same concept applies with the coronavirus pandemic. No matter how good or how bad things look, the best time to panic is never.

It’s Like Having the Check Engine Light Come On in Your Car

Earlier this week, the Arizona Republic used a very apt metaphor do describe the current situation: it’s like having the check engine light come on in your car. It’s telling you something is wrong and should be investigated as soon as possible, but is certainly not a reason to pull over right away and call a tow truck. Nor is it a reason to put a piece of black tape over the light.

Let’s have a look at 5 states that have made a lot of coronavirus headlines recently: Arizona, California, Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas. All of them except for California have been setting new daily case and hospitalization records left, right, and center over the past two to three weeks. We’ll look at the current and past data, as well as what to expect over the next month or so.

How Has the COVID-19 Model Performed?

Before we begin, I want to make one final point about the COVID-19 models. No matter what you are modeling, the accuracy of the predictions diminishes significantly the further out in time you go. For example, do you know how often models that are used to make our day-to-day weather forecasts are correct when they make predictions more than about 5 to 7 days out? Less than 10% of the time. You see the same phenomenon in the coronavirus models, just with a slightly different timeframe.

My coronavirus model is run twice per week and makes two predictions for 56 states and provinces in the US and Canada:

• Case counts 2 weeks from the date of the model run
• Case counts 1 month from the date of the model run

Have any guesses as to how it’s been performing since early May?

That’s a pretty stark difference. The incorrect predictions are often pretty close, but a miss is still a miss. Also, the model has underestimated over 99% of the incorrect predictions it has made since early May. In other words, when the model was wrong, the actual case count was higher than what the model predicted, which is to be expected during a COVID-19 spike. Please keep this in mind when viewing model projections in this post. You can view the full details of how the model is performing on my COVID-19 Dashboard.

All plots and maps below contain data through Thursday, 18 June, 2020.

General Overview

Before we dive into each individual state, let’s look at a general overview of how the five states stack up against each other. Click on any plot or map to enlarge it.

First, a map showing the change in new cases over the past 14 days:

And now, the time series plots. The new daily cases are a 7-day moving average.

Arizona

Arizona continues to be one of my biggest concerns, for reasons beyond just the fact that I live there. You can pretty easily trace the spike in case back to the state’s Stay-at-Home Order expiring on May 15th. I’ll let you decide for yourself whether or not the state opened too early.

Both hospital bed use and percent of positive PCR tests (the tests that say you currently have the virus) have been setting record highs routinely over the past week and half or so. Take a look at these numbers, direct from the Arizona Department of Health Services website.

The hospitalization statistics and percentage of positive of PCR tests are they key metrics to watch not just in Arizona, but in all of the states we’re looking at today.

Now, while those numbers look grim, there are a few glimmers of hope. First, look at this chart of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day. Full disclosure, though, I have heard numerous unconfirmed reports that this chart is missing data for the past week or so, and especially for the past few days.

However, I do have reason to believe that this chart is at least partially true. Look at the charts above showing the hospital beds and ICU beds in use. While they’re certainly not leveling off, the rate of increase in bed use is slowly starting to slow down. A couple days ago, Governor Doug Ducey also gave mayors the power to require face masks in public (many cities in Arizona and Maricopa County now require masks), which will also help slow the spread of the virus and dampen the spike.

Will Arizona Become the New Epicenter?

So, what should we expect going forward? Let’s look into the crystal ball and see what the model says. Don’t forget that while I ran the model out to the first of September, the accuracy of its forecasts drops significantly after the 4th of July.

My personal prediction is that while there is potential for Arizona to become the new epicenter, I think the chances of that actually happening are pretty low. I also think with face mask mandates going into effect, the chances of having to go back into a statewide lockdown or stay at home situation are low. However, should hospitals get overwhelmed, all bets are off.

California

California is an interesting beast to tame on the COVID front, mainly due to its large size and its large population. At first glance, the chart of new cases doesn’t really show anything that jumps off the page at you. Instead, it just shows a steady increase in daily new cases over time.

What’s happening in California right now is actually a microcosm of what’s happening in the United States right now. Different parts of the state are peaking at different times as the epicenter moves around the state. Back in March and April, the San Francisco Bay Area bore the brunt of the COVID outbreak, while the epicenter has now shifted to southern California, primarily in the greater Los Angeles area. Here are the latest county-by-county data from this morning.

One very interesting observation: Los Angeles County currently has 47% of the California’s entire cases.

What is the model saying?

With the exception of LA County, I’m not too worried about California as whole right now. The spike you keep hearing about on the news is primarily contained to LA County and the surrounding areas, with smaller outbreaks happening in places like Fresno and the San Juaquin valley.

That being said, LA County is the most populated county in the US, so it must continue to be closely watched, especially if hospitals continue to be stretched. The whole Los Angeles area needs to we closely monitored. Governor Gavin Newsom just required masks to be worn in public statewide, but how much of an effect that has remains to be seen because many of California’s cities, including LA and many of its suburbs, already had local ordinances requiring them.

Looking into the crystal ball, I would expect the state’s steady increase to continue as the epicenter moves around the state, which will effectively cancel out the decrease in cases in other parts of the state. The model shows cases starting to level out once we get into July, but we’ll have to wait and see what happens. It’s shown that before for California and was wrong.

Florida

Oh, Florida. What are we going to do with you? You seem hell-bent on just putting the piece of black tape over the check engine light and continuing on your merry way. It’s been all over the news that Florida could be the next epicenter of COVID-19. However, note that all the reports and news headlines use the word “could”, not “will”. You can still avoid becoming the next epicenter.

According to the State of Florida’s own COVID-19 dashboard, only 1 of its 68 counties meet the criteria to enter the next phase of reopening. The one county that does meet those requirements is Liberty County, which sits in a rural part of the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee.

The state’s dashboard also gives each county a letter grade for how well they are social distancing. Only 4 out of 68 counties graded higher than a C-, and all 4 of those counties got a C. If you’re looking to slow the transmission rate down, that’s where I would start. For a state that has openly admitted to doctoring its data, these numbers are pretty pathetic.

Not surprisingly, cases are exploding in cities across the state.

What’s going on in Florida hospitals?

The state’s dashboard doesn’t have a whole lot of useful information about hospitalizations, but it shows that there are 1,395 available ICU beds throughout the state. I have no idea what percentage of total ICU beds that is.

Now, there is a glimmer of hope that does come with a big “but”. The number of daily new deaths in Florida is actually going down right now…

…BUT, if you look closely at the new cases plot, you will notice that the spike in cases started at Day 80, which was 16 days ago (today is Day 96). Unfortunately, when you have an increase in cases, the increase in deaths usually lags the increase in cases by two to four weeks, which means that it’s likely coming and just hasn’t gotten here yet.

If we look into the crystal ball, here is the model’s best prediction of what’s to come. Please take note that if the state and its residents continue to do nothing about the outbreak, there will be a significant COVID-19 spike with many more cases than what the model is forecasting.

Remember, Florida, it’s not too late to do something about this. Be smart, use common sense, and don’t become the next Florida Man.

Oklahoma

This is another interesting case. Oklahoma’s numbers throughout the pandemic have been lower than the rest of the country, likely due to the lack of major population centers. However, I get the feeling that if the President wasn’t having a campaign rally in Tulsa tomorrow, there would likely be very little, if any, mention of Oklahoma’s coronavirus case numbers on the national news.

Yes, it’s true that new cases have ticked up and are at record highs, and I’m not trying to downplay this, but even these record numbers of new cases are an order of magnitude less what Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas are all seeing. Case counts are currently low enough that there is very little threat to the health care system being overwhelmed.

If we break things down by county, you will find that most of the state’s cases are clustered around the two major population centers: Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

An Interesting Twist that Could Seed COVID-19 Spread

Now, tomorrow’s presidential campaign rally in Tulsa is where things start to get tricky. Tulsa County currently has the highest case count in the state (2,070 confirmed cases), which account for just under one out of every four cases in the state.

The combination of the spike in COVID-19 cases with a large indoor gathering of people coming from all over the country has the potential to be a super-spreader event and seed outbreaks in other parts of the country, but it is not going to turn Oklahoma in to a coronavirus epicenter. It’s not a sure thing that it will be a super-spreader event, either, but it certainly has the potential to be. Attendees taking proper precautions is critical to keeping the super-spreader risk as low as possible.

A model that CNN ran showed that the rally could cause up to 1,000 new cases. That alone may not sound like very much, but once people go back to the various corners of the country from where they came and spreading it to friends, family, etc., that 1,000 cases can turn into a very big number very quickly. Keep that in mind whenever you’re out in public.

So what’s in store for Oklahoma? Here’s the model run, but keep in mind that it does not account for any effects of the presidential rally in Tulsa tomorrow night. If this forecast verifies, there should not be any issues with overwhelming the health care system. Residents should take the spike in COVID-19 cases seriously and be smart about taking precautions when out in public.

Texas

The Lone Star State seemed like they were trying really hard to put the black tape over the check engine light, but finally realized that doing so was a bad idea. This week, Governor Greg Abbott gave mayors the power to require masks in public. Like Arizona, many cities in Texas now require them, which I expect will slow the spike in COVID-19 cases.

While California was a microcosm of the United States, with its epicenter moving around the state, Texas is not seeing that same phenomenon. Most of Texas’ major population centers are seeing the same uptick in cases all at once.

The one big exception to that rule is Amarillo, which saw a major outbreak at a meat processing plant back in May. The city put restrictions into place to curb that outbreak that were much more severe than the rest of the state, and it shows. The COVID-19 spike the rest of the state is experiencing is largely absent from Potter County data.

Hospital Statistics in Texas

Hospitalizations are definitely trending up in Texas, and hospitals are currently 77% full, compared to 84% full in Arizona. The hospitalization data should be watched closely over the next month to six weeks. Hopefully the mask mandates will be able to keep the hospitals from having to activate their emergency or surge plans.

The good news is that if the model prediction verifies, Texas should have a pretty good chance at preventing its healthcare system from being overwhelmed, especially once the mask mandates go into effect. The big question will be when will the daily new cases start to turn the corner on the new daily cases plot. The longer it takes, the bumpier of a ride it’s going to be.

Wrapping It All Up

Whew, that was a lot of data that we covered today. Yes, that was a lot of data we absorbed, and it certainly can look pretty bad in all five states. The good news is that even if you don’t live in any of these states, we can all do our part to slow the spike by not panicking, being smart about when and how we go out and interact in public, and using common sense. Don’t wait around for your mayor, county, or governor to issue mandates. Act now. The sooner we slow the spread and bend the curve down, the sooner we can get back to our normal lives.

Top Photo: Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona – January, 2019

The post COVID-19 Spikes in Arizona, Florida, Texas, and More: How Concerned Should We Be? appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I only ran the models out until early May because we need to focus on what’s going to happen in the next two to three weeks, not what’s going to be happening several months in the future. Additionally, model forecasts get less accurate the further into the future you go. This run assumes current social distancing restrictions remain in place through mid-May and does not account for any additional surges or waves of the virus that may occur later this spring, this summer, or this fall.

Don’t forget, you can always get more information about the model and view detailed case data on my COVID-19 Dashboard. Additionally, I will write up a separate post about the mathematics, equations, and methodologies used in my coronavirus model, which I’m hoping to get posted in the next day or two. Stay tuned for additional discussions about each hot zone as more data comes in.

Alberta

Arizona

British Columbia

California

Connecticut

Florida

Georgia

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

Oklahoma

Ontario

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Québec

Rhode Island

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

U.S. Virgin Islands

Washington (State)

After several requests, I updated this post on 16 April, 2020 to include additional states and provinces, bringing the total to 26 plots instead of 24.

Top Photo: Palo Duro Canyon State Park – Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post A Look at the Best-Fit COVID-19 Model Curves for 24 Key States and Provinces appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Overview of SIR Model Output

Each city has four plots. The top row is the “working” model output, with the model curve best fit to the actual data. The bottom row is an experimental model output showing the effect of social distancing. In the “working” model runs on the top row, there are 5 lines on each plot. The middle line is the R Naught value that was reverse-engineered by fitting the model output to the actual data, and there are two lines on each side of the best-fit line showing different R Naught values in steps of 0.2.

Note: The y-axis on some of the experimental social distancing plots showing the total case count (bottom right plot for each city) is mislabeled. It should read “Total Cases”, not “Number of Infected”.

Finally, don’t forget that the plots below assume the R Naught values and the amount of social distancing remains constant throughout the entire time series. In reality, additional social distancing restrictions will dampen the curve and shift it to the right, while removing social distancing restrictions will cause the curve to accelerate and shift to the left.

Confidence in SIR Model Predictions

My confidence level in the “working”/top row model outputs is as follows:

• Predicting the apex of the outbreak: medium-high to high. The curves should at least be “in the ballpark.”
• Predicting the total number of cases: low to very low. With how fast things are changing right now and how fast new data is coming in, we just don’t know at this point. My gut feeling is that the case count projections in these model runs are likely high overall, but from a public health perspective, I would much rather have the model overestimate case counts than underestimate them.

Plots are in alphabetical order by city, with a table of additional cities at the bottom. Click on any plot to view it full size.

Boston, Massachusetts

Chicago, Illinois

Detroit, Michigan

Los Angeles, California

Montréal, Québec

New Orleans, Louisiana

New York, New York

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Ottawa, Ontario

Portland, Oregon

Phoenix, Arizona

San Francisco, California

Tampa, Florida

Toronto, Ontario

SIR Model Outputs for Additional Cities

Please note that this table contains outputs of just this single model run and does not necessarily reflect what my actual predictions are. I will be putting this table on my COVID-19 Pandemic Tracker later this week and regularly updating it there.

Data points I’m skeptical of in this output (with some comments):

• Chicago, IL: Case count is likely overestimated. I’m not sure why, but the most likely reason is good social distancing.
• Los Angeles, CA: Case count is likely overestimated due to California being better at social distancing than what was input into the model
• Seattle, WA: Peak date is incorrect due to the State of Washington’s 100th case occurring before John’s Hopkins began breaking down data by state.
• Washington, DC: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve
• Winnipeg, MB: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve

The post Complete Revised SIR Model Forecasts (8 April): USA and Canada appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I’m back in the 405, yeah

It’s always great to go back to your old stomping grounds and this time was no different. After being on the road for three days, I was looking forward to a few days out of the truck and catching up with friends from my days at the University of Oklahoma in Norman.

I find it truly fascinating how the human memory works. When I lived in Norman, I often went storm chasing. Certain experiences, both good and harrowing, get permanently seared into your memory. You remember every detail vividly – the sights, the sounds, the smells, and the feelings. The feelings usually went to one of two extremes:

1. Absolutely ecstatic and excited. You took that perfect picture of a tornado ripping across the open prairie. The storm was never a threat to any structures or civilization
2. The epitome of “holy shit” moments.

Reflecting on My Fondest Storm Chasing Memory

Coming in on Interstate 40 from Amarillo always brings back 2 distinct storm chasing memories. The first, ironically, happened nowhere close to I-40, and in fact didn’t even happen in Oklahoma, but I digress. On May 19, 2012, I photographed seven tornadoes near Harper, Kansas, about 20 miles from the Oklahoma State Line.

Every decision I made that day turned to gold, and Mother Nature rewarded me with a front-row seat all to myself of the only tornadoes to strike the Great Plains that day. All of the other chasers were in Nebraska chasing a triple point that ended up busting.

Back to the present day, I pulled off of I-40 in Weatherford, Oklahoma to gas up at one of my favorite truck stops. It seemed like I fueled up at that truck stop just about every time I chased storms in western Oklahoma. When I pulled up to the pump, there was one memory that instantly came right back: the May 31, 2013 El Reno tornado.

Looking Back at the May 31, 2013 El Reno Tornado

On May 31, 2013, I watched that El Reno storm from a safe distance behind the dryline. I holed up on a dirt road south of Weatherford for most of the afternoon as one of the most powerful tornadoes in Oklahoma history tore its way down I-40, bulls-eyed for downtown Oklahoma City. Dopper radar measurements confirmed wind speeds of at least 296 mph.

After the sun went down, I made my way back to the truck stop in Weatherford. I planned to wait for authorities to re-open I-40 and then head home. I didn’t realize that after the tornado lifted, the storm dropped over a foot of rain over parts of the Oklahoma City metro and surrounding areas, including Norman, causing massive flooding and more havoc.

One of the More Harrowing Drives I’ve Undertaken

By 11 PM that night, I-40 was still closed. So were all the other east-west roads I would have taken to get home. Authorities announced that it would not re-open until the next day. This left me with one option. I had to take back roads to get home. My best option was Highway 9, but it was a flip of a coin whether it would be flooded. I knew if I could make it to Interstate 35, I could get home. I took a gamble. If I ran into flooded roads, I would keep diverting south until I reach I-35. If I have to drive all the way to Texas, so be it.

The trip home that night was one of the sketchier things I’ve ever done. Every hill I went over, and every corner I went around, I constantly wondered whether the road would be underwater on the other side. More importantly, would I be able to stop before reaching the edge of the water? I got incredibly lucky that night. Highway 9 was dry the whole way to I-35, and I made it home to Norman without incident, despite Oklahoma City being underwater.

Another Great Visit

This trip was another fantastic trip to Norman. We ate plenty of good food, played plenty of our favorite NBA video game, and had plenty of good laughs. We also got to partake in one of our favorite pastimes of poking fun at the local weathermen on TV. It’s time to get back on the road and head for my next stopover in Canada, and I’m already looking forward to stopping in Norman again on my return trip in a couple of weeks.

The post Road Trip 2019: Norman, Oklahoma Stopover appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Reason 1: Extreme Drought in Oklahoma

As of May 20, 2014, 95% of Oklahoma is experiencing some sort of drought, and more than 60% of the state is in either extreme or exceptional drought, the two most severe categories. This area consists mainly of the western 2/3 of Oklahoma, plus the panhandle.

When areas such as western Oklahoma have been under a severe drought for as long as they have, there is hardly any soil moisture. When the spring winds blow over such a large area of extreme drought, it acts like a hair dryer to dry out the lower levels of the atmosphere. No low-level moisture means there are no storms, and the ones that do form are often high-based and poorly organized.

Reason 2: Out of Phase Large Scale Systems

With severe weather, the term “out of phase” refers to the timing of the severe weather ingredients occurring at different points during the day. It seems like most of the powerful storm systems this year have been out of phase as they crossed Oklahoma. Remember there are four main ingredients required to generate severe weather: instability, moisture, lift, and shear.

Let’s take a look at the April 27, 2014 severe weather event that began in Oklahoma and continued into Arkansas and Mississippi. April 26th saw ample moisture return to Oklahoma and Arkansas for severe weather, and with the jet stream directly overhead, there was plenty of shear over both states. Daytime heating is the primary driver of instability, peaking around 4-5 PM, and reaching its minimum around dawn. Forecast high temperatures across Oklahoma and Arkansas were forecast to be well into the 80’s on April 27th, providing plenty of instability for severe weather.

The only ingredient that’s missing is the lift. Lift is provided by the main upper-level storm system as it passes overhead. On April 27th, the main upper-level low passed over the Oklahoma City area at 6 AM, when instability minimized. This is as close to completely out of phase as you can get. There was not enough instability at that hour of the morning to support supercells, so we ended up with a squall line that had some gusty winds and large hail.

As that system progressed east throughout the day, instability in the moist sector skyrocketed with the daytime heating. By the time peak heating rolled around and everything was then in phase, the main upper-level low was over western Arkansas, where there was more than enough instability to support supercells. Supercells exploded on the dryline and a tornado outbreak began shortly thereafter, with a few violent tornadoes occurring that evening in the Little Rock area. Shift the timing of the upper-level low 12 hours earlier and that tornado outbreak would have been occurring along the I-35 corridor in Oklahoma.

Reason 3: The Unseasonably Cold Winter

It’s also no secret that this past winter was very unseasonably cold for nearly the entire USA. This included the Gulf of Mexico, the southern plains’ main source of rich tropical moisture in the spring. As a result, water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were much colder than normal. Warmer air can hold more moisture, so colder Gulf temperatures meant less moisture return to the southern plains. Combine this with the extreme drought in Oklahoma, and that’s all she wrote.

Has This Happened Before?

Believe it or not, this has happened before. I’m not going to go into the details, but there were zero tornadoes in Oklahoma in May, 2005, 4 tornadoes in Oklahoma in May, 2006, and 3 tornadoes in Oklahoma in May, 2012. Years such as 2010, where there were 91 tornadoes in May, seem to more than make up for it, though. You can see the tornado statistics at the National Weather Service’s Monthly Tornado Statistics for Oklahoma.

As of this posting, there have only been 5 tornadoes in Oklahoma in 2014 (4 in April and 1 in May). Since 1950, the record low for Oklahoma tornadoes is 17, which occurred in 1988. If the drought really takes hold this summer (it sure seems headed that way), it would not surprise me at all to see that record fall.

The post Three Factors Explaining Oklahoma’s Quiet Storm Season appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

It was a tough decision not to chase, but in the end, driving for 2-3 hours only to chase for at most 45 minutes and then have to drive the same 2-3 hours home just wasn’t worth it. When it was all said and done, quite a few hail-producing storms went up in Kansas, but all the action was after sunset. We’ll give it another shot next time.

Today is a much different story as far as storm coverage and boundary forcing goes. The SPC has a Moderate Risk up for much of Arkansas and southern Missouri, and storms have already begun to initiate on the cold front and dryline in eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. All aspects of severe weather are possible: tornadoes, wind, and hail. The highest risk of tornadoes will be across the southern half of Missouri and the northern half of Arkansas. It will definitely be worth watching this afternoon.

The post Storm Season Tries to Get Going in Oklahoma appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.