Recent Model Performance

Why am I so concerned? First, my coronavirus model is predicting rather apocalyptic numbers across several states. Second, the model has been deadly accurate with its projections since the beginning of July. My coronavirus model forecasts case counts for the 50 US States and 6 Canadian Provinces at 2 weeks and 1 month from the date of the model run.

A Troubling Precursor: Melbourne, Australia

The most alarming peek into the crystal ball is the significant outbreak of COVID-19 over the 2020 winter in Melbourne, Australia. Starting in late June, a cluster of cases emerged and rapidly spread through the city, peaking in early August before finally tapering off in late September.

Australian officials deemed the likely cause of the outbreak to be people letting their guard down after Australia’s strict lockdown in April. Does that sound familiar to you?

You know what’s even more concerning about this outbreak, in the context of the United States and Canada? Australia had its outbreak well under control throughout late fall and into the start of winter. The entire country averaged less than 10 new cases per day in early and mid-June. Despite officials putting Melbourne into a very strict lockdown and sealing the entire State of Victoria off from the rest of the country, cases spiked to about 800 per day at their peak in early August, an increase of 2 orders of magnitude, or about 100-fold.

Diving into the Numbers

Let’s do a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation to extrapolate Australia’s outbreak to the United States and Canada. While Australia averaged about 8 new cases per day heading into its winter, the United States is currently averaging 45,000 new cases per day, and Canada is averaging 2,000.

Keep in mind, we’ve still got 2 months to go before the start of our winter in December. It’s also unlikely that either the US or Canada will see the same strict lockdowns and restrictions that were implemented in Victoria.

45,000 * 100 = 4,500,000

2,000 * 100 = 200,000

Come on, there’s no way this will actually happen, right? I sure hope not. It’s possible, though not very likely. Remember that everyone said that the US would get a reprieve from the pandemic over the summer, only to see cases spike to 80,000 per day across the Sun Belt.

General Outlook for This Fall and Winter

In many of the states and provinces listed below, you likely will not see the huge spikes like you saw previously in places like New York City, Miami, Melbourne, Los Angeles, and Houston. Instead, it will be a much slower increase due to the lower population density in these states, but the model is showing the potential for the virus to rip through a significant portion of their populations.

In the plots below, I have extended the coronavirus model run out further than one month. Please keep in mind that its accuracy diminishes significantly past the one month mark.

Montana

Montana successfully suppressed the coronavirus over the spring and summer. It is now one of many states in the north-central United States staring down a substantial outbreak of COVID-19. This outbreak will feel much different than the outbreaks across the northeast and the Sun Belt earlier this year.

Instead of a massive and rapid spike, the disease will spread much slower through the community. However, the surge will likely last longer and impact a larger portion of the population than in more populous states.

Previous outbreaks across the northeast and the Sun Belt lasted about 2 to 3 months. Montana’s outbreak will likely last 6 to 8 months due to lower transmission rates. In the worst case scenario, the model expects about 30% of Montanans to come down with COVID-19.

North Dakota

North Dakota has by far the highest average number of new cases per capita for any state since the pandemic began, a distinction that formerly belonged to Arizona. At the peak of its summer spike, Arizona saw a maximum 7-day average of about 510 new cases per million people. North Dakota has seen that number as high as 659 within the past two weeks. The model’s current worst case scenario shows over 60% of North Dakotans contracting COVID-19 by the end of the pandemic.

Ontario

The current situation in Ontario is quite fascinating. Over the past few weeks, cases have surged, showing signs of going into a full-blown outbreak, but each time you’ve managed to pull it back from the precipice. Just how long you can keep it up is up to you. There’s still time to prevent a spike.

I am particularly concerned about the heavily populated areas along the Highway 401 corridor, as well as the City of Ottawa, as we get deeper into the fall. It won’t take much to tip things over the edge and look a lot more like neighboring Québec.

Québec

Québec has been Canada’s epicenter for the majority of the pandemic. After successfully flattening the curve throughout the summer, cases are not just trending upwards as people are driven indoors, they’re accelerating upward. Though I don’t believe any outbreak in Québec will be as bad as ones in the US, without any action, you’ll likely be at 250,000 to 300,000 cases by March, 2021.

Le Québec a été l’epicentre du Canada pour la plupart de la pandémie. Après avoir réussi à aplatir la courbe pendant tout l’été, les cas ne sont pas seulement à la hausse quand tout le monde vient à l’intérieur, ils accélèrent à la hausse. Je ne crois pas qu’une éclosion au Québec sera aussi grave que celles aux États-Unis, mais sans aucune action, vous aurez probablement entre 250,000 et 300,000 cas en mars, 2021.

South Dakota

North Dakota may own the highest average number of new cases per capita, but South Dakota just shattered all previous records for the largest single day increase in new cases per capita. Two days ago, South Dakota saw a single-day increase of 1,141 new cases per million people.

COVID-19 is considered under control when that number drops below 50 new cases per million people per day. Like North Dakota, the model’s worst case scenario shows over 60% of South Dakotans contracting COVID-19. That’s up from about 11% just a few weeks ago.

Utah

Cases in Utah have been smoldering throughout the spring and summer, but are starting to burn after a significant acceleration in the rate of spread that started in early September. Without action, I expect that the rate of spread in Utah will not just continue, it will also accelerate.

While it’s unlikely you’ll see a New York-type spike, a surge similar to the one you saw in neighboring Arizona over the summer is certainly possible. Hospital and ICU bed usage is already near record highs. The coronavirus model is currently forecasting that over 12% of Utah’s population could be infected by the end of the pandemic, so you should be taking immediate action to flatten the curve.

West Virginia

West Virginia is currently in a situation similar to Utah’s, as transmission rates have recently begun to accelerate. The model is showing the potential for a significant outbreak of cases, but the window to prevent such a scenario is till open.

Under the current trajectory, it’s unlikely West Virginia will see a New York or Florida-like spike. The hospital system can handle the current surge, but the virus slowly ripping through the population can still do a lot of damage. The latest model runs show the current surge peaking in early November, infecting at most about 8% of the population.

Wisconsin

Of all the states and provinces on this list, I am most concerned about Wisconsin. With a significant outbreak of cases already underway, exponential growth is also accelerating.

Just a couple of weeks ago, the model predicted that only 7% of Wisconsin’s population could become infected. That number has jumped to 25% with the latest model run. At the peak of Florida’s outbreak this summer, the model never predicted more than 9% of Floridians could contract COVID-19.

So why am I so concerned with Wisconsin when both of the Dakotas are showing that up to 60% of their populations could possibly be infected?

• With 5.9 million residents, Wisconsin’s population is over 3.5 times larger than the populations of North Dakota (760,000) and South Dakota (885,000) combined.
• Wisconsin’s population centers are larger and denser than anywhere in the Dakotas. The coronavirus spreads much easier in those areas.
• Much of Wisconsin’s population lives in close proximity to one of the nation’s largest cities. Chicago is a hub of economic activity, transport, travel, and much more.
  • Downtown Chicago sits just 85 km (50 mi) from the Wisconsin State Line, and 150 km (93 mi) from Milwaukee.
  • If Wisconsin’s outbreak reaches Chicago, it could spread rapidly to other parts of the United States and the world.

Wyoming

Wyoming is in the same boat as the Dakotas. It’s a low population and low population density state facing a massive, yet slow outbreak of cases. To date, Wyoming’s coronavirus trajectory has been almost identical to South Dakota’s, with a rapid acceleration in transmission rate over the past month or so.

In early September, the model’s worst-case scenarios predicted that about 4% of Wyoming’s population could become infected with COVID-19. Over the past four to five weeks, I have watched that number rapidly rise. As of yesterday’s model run, it had risen to 50%, up from 35% just the week before. It is showing no signs of slowing down.

Other States That Should Be On Alert

After ripping through the northeast and the Sun Belt, the United States’ epicenter has set its sights on the Midwest and the Mississippi River Valley. These outbreaks will now be exacerbated as cooler weather drives people indoors. There is still time to take action to prevent clusters and surges, but these states should be on high alert.

• Arkansas
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Kentucky
• Minnesota
• Missouri
• Nebraska
• Oklahoma

Additionally, any state or province with large population centers in the northern US or southern Canada should be on high alert for surges in coronavirus. Cool fall weather driving people indoors is already seeding upticks in cases in many of the following states and provinces.

• Alberta
• British Columbia
• Colorado
• Indiana
• Illinois
• Manitoba
• Massachusetts
• Michigan
• New Jersey
• New York
• Pennsylvania
• Ohio
• Washington – both Washington State and the District of Columbia

If you live in the southern half of the US, you are by no means out of the woods. This wave will reach you when cooler weather arrives later this fall. Take the time now to plan and prepare to keep yourself, your loved ones, and your fellow citizens safe.

Conclusion

Infectious disease experts have been warning us since April about the likelihood of a significant wave of coronavirus throughout the fall and winter months. Looking at preliminary data, coupled with predictions from several coronavirus models, it’s becoming increasingly clear that experts’ warnings are coming to fruition and that fall and winter wave may already be underway. Wash your hands often, wear your mask in public, and keep your distance from others, and we’ll get through this together.

Top Photo: View of the Summer Monsoon from a Lookout atop the Mogollon Rim
Payson, Arizona – July, 2017

The post My Coronavirus Model is Confirming Dire Warnings in These 9 States appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I only ran the models out until early May because we need to focus on what’s going to happen in the next two to three weeks, not what’s going to be happening several months in the future. Additionally, model forecasts get less accurate the further into the future you go. This run assumes current social distancing restrictions remain in place through mid-May and does not account for any additional surges or waves of the virus that may occur later this spring, this summer, or this fall.

Don’t forget, you can always get more information about the model and view detailed case data on my COVID-19 Dashboard. Additionally, I will write up a separate post about the mathematics, equations, and methodologies used in my coronavirus model, which I’m hoping to get posted in the next day or two. Stay tuned for additional discussions about each hot zone as more data comes in.

Alberta

Arizona

British Columbia

California

Connecticut

Florida

Georgia

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

Oklahoma

Ontario

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Québec

Rhode Island

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

U.S. Virgin Islands

Washington (State)

After several requests, I updated this post on 16 April, 2020 to include additional states and provinces, bringing the total to 26 plots instead of 24.

Top Photo: Palo Duro Canyon State Park – Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post A Look at the Best-Fit COVID-19 Model Curves for 24 Key States and Provinces appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Overview of SIR Model Output

Each city has four plots. The top row is the “working” model output, with the model curve best fit to the actual data. The bottom row is an experimental model output showing the effect of social distancing. In the “working” model runs on the top row, there are 5 lines on each plot. The middle line is the R Naught value that was reverse-engineered by fitting the model output to the actual data, and there are two lines on each side of the best-fit line showing different R Naught values in steps of 0.2.

Note: The y-axis on some of the experimental social distancing plots showing the total case count (bottom right plot for each city) is mislabeled. It should read “Total Cases”, not “Number of Infected”.

Finally, don’t forget that the plots below assume the R Naught values and the amount of social distancing remains constant throughout the entire time series. In reality, additional social distancing restrictions will dampen the curve and shift it to the right, while removing social distancing restrictions will cause the curve to accelerate and shift to the left.

Confidence in SIR Model Predictions

My confidence level in the “working”/top row model outputs is as follows:

• Predicting the apex of the outbreak: medium-high to high. The curves should at least be “in the ballpark.”
• Predicting the total number of cases: low to very low. With how fast things are changing right now and how fast new data is coming in, we just don’t know at this point. My gut feeling is that the case count projections in these model runs are likely high overall, but from a public health perspective, I would much rather have the model overestimate case counts than underestimate them.

Plots are in alphabetical order by city, with a table of additional cities at the bottom. Click on any plot to view it full size.

Boston, Massachusetts

Chicago, Illinois

Detroit, Michigan

Los Angeles, California

Montréal, Québec

New Orleans, Louisiana

New York, New York

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Ottawa, Ontario

Portland, Oregon

Phoenix, Arizona

San Francisco, California

Tampa, Florida

Toronto, Ontario

SIR Model Outputs for Additional Cities

Please note that this table contains outputs of just this single model run and does not necessarily reflect what my actual predictions are. I will be putting this table on my COVID-19 Pandemic Tracker later this week and regularly updating it there.

Data points I’m skeptical of in this output (with some comments):

• Chicago, IL: Case count is likely overestimated. I’m not sure why, but the most likely reason is good social distancing.
• Los Angeles, CA: Case count is likely overestimated due to California being better at social distancing than what was input into the model
• Seattle, WA: Peak date is incorrect due to the State of Washington’s 100th case occurring before John’s Hopkins began breaking down data by state.
• Washington, DC: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve
• Winnipeg, MB: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve

The post Complete Revised SIR Model Forecasts (8 April): USA and Canada appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

One of the last stops along the waterway as you head west towards Lake Huron is the Big Chute Marine Railway (Le Ber Roulant de Big Chute in French). The railway sits near the town of Muskoka, about 15 km west of Gravenhurst, Ontario. It is open to boat traffic from May to October.

What is the Big Chute Marine Railway?

What makes Big Chute so unique is that there is a marine railway instead of a lock. Because of an unusual land barrier between the two bodies of water, building a lock was impractical, if not impossible. The marine railway was much more cost-effective and efficient to both build and operate. The railway covers a distance of 228 meters, with an elevation change of about 20 meters.

As fascinating as it was to sit and watch the railway, my uncle and I actually came to Big Chute to go paddling. We loaded up the canoe and set off down the river. We weren’t sure how far down the river we could get, so we decided to go until either we couldn’t go any further or we got tired. At that point, we would stop for a picnic lunch.

The first obstacle we got to was a large dam, so we had to beach the canoe and carry it the short distance around the dam. On the other side of the dam, it became really tranquil and peaceful. We were away from the crowds and it really was just us, the river, and nature.

We Didn’t Make It Far

A short while later we got to our first set of rapids. We beached the canoe and climbed up on the bank to scout the rapids. My uncle and I spent a few minutes contemplating a plan. We were confident we could get safely through the rapids. However, neither of us were all that excited at the prospect of having to carry the canoe around the rapids on the way back. This would be where we would have lunch.

A Moment for Reflection

Being able to sit on the banks of the river also gave me the first opportunity to reflect on the trip so far. Less than 2 weeks ago, I was sitting on the beach in Mexico at the beginning of the trip. That felt like it was about 2 years ago. A week ago, I was driving across the west Texas prairie on my way to Norman, Oklahoma. Again, that seemed more of a distant memory now rather than something that had just happened. I had left Norman just 4 days earlier. Funny how criss-crossing your way across three different countries will do that.

As great as the trip has been so far, it’s also important to keep looking forward to what’s ahead. It’s hard to believe I will be leaving my uncle’s tomorrow morning for the final leg of the trip exploring Québec. After that, I’m heading to the trip’s final destination at my parent’s house in Massachusetts.

It seemed like a blink of an eye once we started paddling that we were back at the boat launch at Big Chute. It turns out we had only paddled a little over a kilometer downstream. We really didn’t make it that far before we stopped. I snapped a few last pictures of the marine railway. We loaded up the car and headed back to Washago.

A Final Stop on the Trent-Severn Waterway

On the way home, to see a comparison, we stopped at the Couchiching Lock (L’écluse Couchiching in French), which is also part of the Trent-Severn Waterway. After seeing the lock, it became quite obvious why the Big Chute Marine Railway was built instead of a lock. That’s it for now. Enjoy the photos. À demain au Québec!

The post Road Trip 2019: Big Chute Marine Railway appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

From Indianapolis, I set my sights on crossing the border into Canada for my second stopover of the trip. I’ll be spending a few days at my uncle’s house in Washago, Ontario, which is near Toronto. My original plan was to not have to cross the border on the weekend. Alas, it was a Sunday and I wasn’t about to wait around in Indianapolis. I got off to an early start to avoid getting caught in traffic. Many weekend warriors return home from Canada on Sunday afternoon. My Global Entry card allows expedited entry into the US, but does not get me anything crossing the border into Canada.

The Detroit-Windsor Border Crossing to Canada

The most direct route to my uncle’s house is to cross from Detroit, Michigan into Windsor, Ontario. That crossing is one of the busiest ports of entry on the entire US – Canada border. After crossing from Ohio into Michigan, it felt like it took forever getting up to Detroit, despite it only being about 45 miles. All while watching the wait times on the CBSA (Canada Border Services Agency) website get longer and longer.

The Ambassador Bridge is the direct link between I-75 in Michigan and the 401 in Ontario. By the time I started coming into the southern suburbs of Detroit, the wait at the Ambassador Bridge was close to an hour and a half going into Canada.

Time to go to Plan B: the Detroit-Windsor Tunnel

I was very happy, and a bit surprised, to see that the wait times at the tunnel were only about 10 minutes. The route to the entrance to the tunnel is disturbingly well signed. Navigating the streets of downtown Detroit was a breeze. After a short jaunt through the tunnel (a little under 1 km), you pop out in another country.

Fun Fact: The Detroit/Windsor border crossing is the only spot on the main part of the US – Canada border (i.e. excluding Alaska) where you can go south from the US into Canada

What to Expect at Canadian Customs

The process for entering Canada is very similar to entering the US. Restrictions on what you can bring into Canada are very similar to what you can bring into the US. When you pull up to the primary checkpoint, give the CBSA agent your passport. US passport cards also work entering Canada at land and sea ports of entry. Answer their questions truthfully, and be transparent. Don’t try to hide anything. Some things they may ask about include, but are certainly not limited to:

• The purpose and duration of your visit to Canada; where you plan to go
• If you’re carrying meat products or fresh produce
• If you’re carrying any weapons (guns, knives, etc) or drugs
• If you’re carrying any alcohol
• If you have medication or prescription drugs
• Do you have any past criminal convictions? If the answer to this question is yes, you will likely be denied entry into Canada unless you file the proper paperwork ahead of time

Onward into Canada

After a short 10 or so minute wait in line and a brief, friendly stop at the primary customs checkpoint, I was on the streets of Windsor. I ended up leading myself a bit astray trying to get around a couple street closures. When you leave the customs area, you’re actually facing back towards Detroit. I didn’t realize that, but I quickly got my bearings straight. Once I put the Detroit skyline in the rear view mirror, it was a quick and painless drive to get out to the 401.

Other than a half-hour delay due to an accident in a construction zone, I had a smooth run up the 401 to my uncle’s house. That accident was amazingly the only slow-down on the entire trip, other than a few short at customs. I know my uncle has some hiking and canoeing planned and I’m really looking forward to being able to do it when everything’s not buried under 2 feet of snow.

Funny Addendum to this Leg of the Trip

One pattern I noticed on this trip is that whenever I crossed an international border, something really funny and unexpected happened. This one happened at the first gas station I stopped at in Canada. I swiped my credit card at the pump and entered my zip code. I was getting ready to select the fuel type and put the nozzle in the filler to fill the tank when the pump asked another question that caught me completely off guard.

How much fuel do you wish to purchase?

The kicker was that you could only select a dollar amount, you couldn’t select a volume. And there was no “Fill It Up” option. Now I start doing the math in my head that I’ve done time and time again. The tank was a little over 1/4 full. I knew pretty much the exact number of gallons I needed to fill it up. From there, it’s easy to figure out how many dollars it is.

The Metric System Unexpectedly Got the Best of Me

I looked up at the price on the electric sign in front of the gas station and it immediately dawned on me that my math had gone awry. Oh crap, I’m in Canada. Those prices are in liters, not gallons. I start to do the conversion in my head. By now, it had thrown me enough curveballs to slightly knock me off my game. I’m trying to do the (very) approximate conversion of 1 gallon = 4 liters minus a little bit in my head, but the numbers just weren’t coming out right. For some reason the fact that I was paying in Canadian Dollars instead of US Dollars thre my logic off. The currency type was irrelevant because it stayed the same throughout the calculation.

Now, here’s where the rational person would pull out a calculator to do the conversion, but I don’t admit defeat that easily. After a few more attempts at the conversion and getting unnecessarily thrown off by an exchange rate that I didn’t know (or need), I got a number that sort of made sense and sort of didn’t. I had been on the road all day (remember this day started back in Indianapolis) and eventually just said “Screw It” and picked my best guess at the dollar amount: $50 Canadian.

It’s Better to Be Lucky than Good

After pumping the gas and completing the transaction, I got back in the truck to see how I did on the calculation. Much to my surprise, I absolutely nailed the guess. The needle on the fuel gauge was just above “F”, prompting a quick impromptu celebration before getting back on the road for the last few kilometers to my uncle’s house. The ensuing times I bought gas in Canada on this trip I came in “guns-a-blazing” and ready to do the math correctly. I was both happy and a tad disappointed when I discovered those pumps all had a “Fill It Up” option.

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