My COVID-19 model is actually giving me results. Let’s open the hood and look at some of the mathematics, methodologies, and logic I use to make my projections. I wrote the model in Python. It has a simple graphical user interface that runs in a web browser. The SIR Model: […]
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A Look at the Best-Fit COVID-19 Model Curves for 24 Key States and Provinces
Below you will find the latest state and provincial projections from the 15 April model run of my COVID-19 model for the US and Canada. I have included states and provinces that are in “hot” areas in both countries, as well as places where I have friends, family, and other […]
Read MoreHow to Tell When You’ve Reached the Peak of the COVID-19 Pandemic
From a mathematical standpoint, figuring out when a country, state, province, county, or city has hit the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic is not an exact science. Instead, it relies on pattern recognition in the data. We’re going to look at data from several countries and states to identify examples […]
Read MoreComplete Revised SIR Model Forecasts (8 April): USA and Canada
Here is a full look at the outputs from our revised SIR model. I have included plots from hot spots in both the US and Canada as well as cities where I have friends, family, and loved ones. I can run these simulations for just about any city in the […]
Read MoreLatest SIR Model Outlooks: COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has been absolutely fascinating to watch from a mathematical modeling standpoint. As the pandemic starts taking a stranglehold on the United States this week, let’s have a look at a few different COVID-19 models, including my SIR model. Can we gauge any semblance of what’s going to […]
Read MoreAmerica, Please Don’t Quarantine Yourself From Knowledge
During one of the New England Patriots’ recent runs to a Super Bowl victory, head coach Bill Belichick put it pretty well: “Do Your Job.” Everybody in the organization, from the owners all the way down to the team’s interns, had a job to do in order for the team […]
Read MoreSimulating the COVID-19 Outbreak in the United States with Gaussian Functions
Well, it looks like the coronavirus has arrived in full-force here in the United States. COVID-19 will likely cause some disruptions to day-to-day life. Being a math person, the outbreak has piqued my interest in modeling and simulating some possible scenarios for the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States. Before […]
Read MoreDigging Deeper: Diagnosing My Raspberry Pi Temperature Sensor’s “Hot Flashes”
I recently identified a rather unfortunate bug that left part of my weather station’s QA/QC algorithm redundant. Fixing it treated the symptom, but not the cause of the problem. Today, we’re going to look at what is causing the temperature sensor on one of my Raspberry Pi’s to seemingly randomly […]
Read MoreHouston, I Think There’s a Bug in My Weather Station’s QA/QC Algorithm
Have you ever heard the expression “Measure Twice, Cut Once”? It’s commonly used in woodworking and carpentry. It’s a reminder to always double and triple-check your measurements when you cut a piece of wood. You’d be amazed at how many times you screw it up. Well, let me tell you […]
Read MoreAn Ingenious Smart Home Office Automation Hack
When I started experimenting with smart home technology and automation last year, I spent way too much time planning around the “smart” part of the smart home technology. Indeed, as a user, my first attempt didn’t gain much benefit. I just had a computer telling me when I turned on […]
Read MoreMathematics of the Woodpecker Deterrent System
Well, this is the moment of truth. It’s time to calculate the pressure loss from a leak to see if this crazy idea for deterring woodpeckers will actually work. The idea is that the woodpecker deterrent will connect to my outdoor hose spigots, which hopefully will provide ample water pressure […]
Read MoreDIY Solar Radiation Shield: Results of the Bowls vs Plates Experiment
I recently built a couple of DIY solar radiation shields to house outdoor temperature sensors I have at my house. I built one out of plastic plates and one out of plastic bowls because I was curious to see if one worked better than the other as a solar radiation […]
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