Where is Rue Canusa?

Rue Canusa sits in a beautiful, rolling, and rural part of the Green Mountains separating Stanstead, Québec from Beebe Plain, Vermont. As the crow flies, it’s equidistant from both Montréal and Burlington; however, the nearest city is Sherbrooke, Québec, about 45 km (28 mi) to the northeast.

Why You Should Drive Rue Canusa

Despite Rue Canusa’s short length – about half a kilometer – it’s loaded with history. Despite increasingly tightened security on both sides of the border over the past 30 years, it will give you glimpse into the past when life along the border was much simpler and much more unified.

In addition, Rue Canusa is one of the only places in the world where you can drive down the street, turn around, and come back down the same street in the opposite direction and be in a different country. In fact, it may be the only place in the world you can do that, but I haven’t been able to verify that for certain.

Prior to the September 11th terror attacks, communities along this part of the US-Canada border largely functioned as a single community. Crossing the border was simple and painless, more often resembling the process of crossing state or provincial boundaries than the international border crossings you know today.

Modern Times Means Tighter Border Security

Both the United States and Canada really began cracking down on border security in the immediate aftermath of the September 11th attacks. All of these small bi-national communities on the border were split in half overnight. People stopped crossing the border for simple errands, and many facilities that were built on the border to cater to patrons from both countries closed. The only venue that remains open today is the Haskell Free Library and Opera House, though it, too, has been closed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Today, all that remains of those simpler times are gates and barriers across streets that once united the communities on each side of the border. All cross-border traffic is redirected to official ports of entry. While you hate to lose the unification of border communities, the benefits of tighter border security far outweigh the convenience of being able to walk into another country completely unaware that you’re crossing the border.

An Interesting Historical Legend

One of the more fascinating aspects of the history of Rue Canusa is its historical legend. The legend claims that when Stanstead and Beebe Plain were being settled back in the 1700s, a group of surveyors had too much to drink when they were working to determine where the international border was. Some people claim that these drunk surveyors were behind Rue Canusa. Others say it was just a mistake. Either way, both Stanstead and Beebe Plain continue to try and function as a single community despite the ever-evolving international border.

How Do You Get to Rue Canusa?

You can easily access Rue Canusa from either the United States or Canada. However, it is much easier from a logistical standpoint if you access it from Canada because you do not need to check in with customs prior to entering Rue Canusa. We’ll circle back to this very shortly.

Rue Canusa itself is very short, only about half a kilometer (1/3 mile). However, both countries have ports of entry at the west end of Rue Canusa. About 2 km to the east, you’ll find a much larger port of entry at the northern terminus of Interstate 91 and the southern terminus of Autoroute 55.

Access From Canada

From Canada, head south from Magog, Québec on either Autoroute 55 or Highway 247. If you have time, I recommend using Highway 247, a scenic, laid back drive that runs through rolling hills, forests, and quaint farmland along the shores of Lake Mamphrémagog. On the other hand, Autoroute 55 is a major freeway. Even better, Highway 247 becomes Rue Canusa when you reach the border.

On Highway 247, you’ll know you’re close when you start seeing signs for “Douanes”, which means “customs” in French. When you reach the border, follow the large orange barricade as the road bends 90 degrees to the left. Pass between the American and Canadian customs halls and onto Rue Canusa.

Access From the United States

From the United States, follow Interstate 91 North to its northern terminus at the border. Take the first left after clearing Canadian customs onto Québec 247. Follow Highway 247 for about 2 kilometers, which will bring you to the eastern end of Rue Canusa. After completing your journey down Rue Canusa, turn left to return to the United States, or turn right to continue north into Canada.

How Customs Works

It’s no surprise that Rue Canusa’s unique design causes confusion among visitors and non-residents. Thankfully, it’s not as complicated as it may seem. Both countries have special rules for residents of Rue Canusa to deal with the border issue, but they do not apply to visitors.

When visiting Rue Canusa, always remember my golden rule: if in doubt, stop at the customs hall and check in. If they don’t need anything from you, they’ll send you on your way. On the other hand, failure to check in at customs will result in thousands of dollars in fines and can even result in jail time. A quick stop at customs can save yourself a ton of headaches.

Because Rue Canusa is a Québec Provincial Highway, the rule is shockingly simple. If you’re coming from Canada and staying in Canada, you do not need to pass through customs. If you’re doing anything else, you will need to clear customs on either or both of your outbound and return trips. The map below should make it clear why.

What to Expect Driving or Walking Rue Canusa

If I dropped you onto Rue Canusa without any context, it would feel just like any other quiet, quaint residential street in the US or Canada. Well-kept homes line both sides of the street. There are even a few businesses on the Québec side of the street near the east end of Rue Canusa.

Furthermore, you would have no idea an international border ran right down the middle of the street. Okay, maybe Canadian flags flying on one side of the street and American flags flying on the other might clue you in. But there are no fences, markers, or other indicators of the border aside from the customs buildings at one end of Rue Canusa and a survey marker at the other.

What Language Do You Speak on Rue Canusa?

If you speak English or French, you’re all set. All federal operations (read: customs) on both sides of the border are fully bilingual. In town, you will find both languages used in many places. However, people will favor English on the Vermont side of the border and French on the Québec side.

What Else is There to do near Rue Canusa?

There are so many other things to do and places to explore on both sides of the border year round. From skiing and snow sports in the winter to swimming and boating in the summer to leaf peeping and maple syrup in the fall, there are activities for everyone.

Activities in Canada

The closest and most popular attraction to Rue Canusa on the Canadian side of the border are Québec’s National Parks. About 25 kilometers to the north, you’ll find Parc National du Mont Orford, which is famous for its breathtaking mountain landscapes and outdoor recreation. And if that’s not enough, there are 4 additional National Parks within a two to three hour drive of Rue Canusa, as well as numerous nature preserves, provincial parks, and lakes.

But what if you’re not the outdoorsy type? Montréal, Sherbrooke, and Québec City are all less than a three-hour drive from Rue Canusa. All three cities are rich in culture, history, and activities both indoors and out. And if you’re willing to travel a little further, Toronto, Ottawa, and the Canadian Maritimes are all easily within reach.

Activities in the United States

While the northeastern United States does not have the National Parks that Québec boasts, all of the northeast states have amazing state parks, forests, and outdoor recreation. You can easily reach both Boston and New York City in a day’s drive. And if you’re craving some of the best seafood in the world, the same goes for downeast Maine. And while you’re there, don’t forget to visit Acadia National Park, either.

Haskell Free Library and Opera House

About a kilometer east of Rue Canusa, you’ll find the Haskell Free Library and Opera House. Intentionally built straddling the international border, the fully bilingual library has served both nations since it opened in 1904. Furthermore, it’s the only performance space in the world where the stage and the audience are in two different countries. There’s actually a running joke that it’s the only library in the United States without books and the only opera house in the United States without a stage. The bookshelves and the opera stage are both on the Canadian side of the building.

You can enter the library from either the US or Canada and move around freely while inside, but once you’re done, the rule is simple: you must return to the country from which you came.

Conclusion

Rue Canusa is one of the most unique streets in the world. Whether you’re driving, walking, biking, or something else, you’ll be able to say you’ve done something very few other people in the world have. But don’t get caught up in the moment. While the US and Canada are very friendly, they both take border security very seriously. Respect the laws, soak in the uniqueness of the moment, and you’re bound to have a safe, fun, and memorable time.

Resources

• Canada Border Services Agency
• U.S. Customs and Border Protection
• Rue Canusa Photos (August, 2019)
• Haskell Free Library Photos (August, 2019)
• Driving Rue Canusa (August, 2019)
• Visiting to the Haskell Free Library (August, 2019)
• Haskell Free Library Website

Top Photo: Driving Rue Canusa
Stanstead, Québec, Canada – August, 2019

The post The Complete Travelers’ Guide to Rue Canusa appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

While fall colors used to be local New England tradition, they now attract visitors from all over the world. As you can expect, the more popular areas often attract large crowds. These crowds take a lot of the magic of New England fall colors out of the air. Thankfully, there are plenty of places to see amazing fall colors in places that are both off-the-beaten-path and places where you wouldn’t normally think of fall foliage. Here are six of my favorite places in New England to escape the crowds and see some of the best fall foliage the region has to offer.

1. Merritt Parkway, Connecticut

Peak Fall Colors: Late October

The Merritt Parkway runs parallel to Interstate 95 across the western third of Connecticut. With its western terminus sitting just 25 miles from downtown Manhattan, it’s an easy day trip from both New York City and Hartford. The parkway is incredibly scenic for being in such a densely populated area. As a result, it’s one of the most underrated spots in southern New England to see fall colors.

When you drive the Merritt Parkway, you’ll experience the Scenic Gateway to New England. Trailers and commercial vehicles are banned, so you’ll only be sharing the road with passenger cars. With a very old-time and classic New England feel, the elaborate architecture of the Merritt Parkway’s overpasses alone is worth the drive. The trees are close to the road and often overhang the road like a tunnel. During peak fall colors, it’s absolutely spectacular.

Unfortunately, being so close to New York City also comes with its disadvantages. Traffic can be horrendous if you hit the Merritt Parkway at the wrong time of day (read: rush hour). Furthermore, many drivers consider speed limits and yield signs to be just a suggestion, which can make for white knuckle driving during rush hour. The parkway has very narrow lanes and no shoulders. As a result, accidents are fairly common, and one minor fender bender can shut down the entire parkway.

Under no circumstance should you use those disadvantages as an excuse to not drive the Merritt Parkway. Just try to avoid it at rush hour. If you run into traffic, don’t hesitate to get off and drive north (away from I-95) on the surface streets. You don’t have to go far to get out of the congestion, away from civilization, and out into nature where you’ll have the breathtaking New England fall colors all to yourself.

2. Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Peak Fall Colors: Late October/Early November

OK, I’m a bit biased here because I grew up on Cape Cod and my family still lives there. But it doesn’t diminish that the Cape is absolutely spectacular in the fall. In fact, September and October are probably my two favorite months to be on Cape Cod. The summer tourists have long since gone home, so crowds are virtually non-existent. However, do note that things may be a bit busier than normal, as people from both Boston and New York have been using their Cape homes to escape the city during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As popular as Cape Cod is during the summer, most people don’t consider it for viewing fall colors. Not that I’m complaining, I like it when it’s quiet. But most people instead look to northern New England and the western half of Massachusetts for the best fall foliage viewing. Cape Cod’s world-famous beaches combined with peak fall colors provide you with an intense sensory overload of colors that cover nearly the entire color wheel.

So where would I go to see fall colors on Cape Cod? The most scenic drive hands down in Route 6A. Take the first exit after you go over the Sagamore Bridge and follow Route 6A down Cape to its eastern terminus in Orleans. You’ll pass beaches, nature preserves, and quaint towns. From Orleans, you have a few options. You can continue further on US-6 East up to Provincetown and take in the fall colors along the Cape Cod National Seashore. Or, if you’re ready to head home, just get on the Mid-Cape Highway (US-6) going west. It’s about a 40 minute drive back to the Sagamore Bridge. There are plenty more options to see fall colors on Cape Cod, but if you only had one day, I’d drive Route 6A.

Finally, if you’re considering a trip to Cape Cod to take in the fall colors, pay at least some attention to the weather during the two or three weeks before you arrive. Late season hurricanes and early season nor’easters occasionally impact Cape Cod in mid-to-late October. These storms can (and more often than not do) blow all the leaves off the trees before fall colors peak. The last thing you want is to make the trip only to find a recent storm ruined peak fall colors for you. Thankfully, these October storms are the exception instead of the rule on Cape Cod.

3. Mount Washington, New Hampshire

Peak Fall Colors: Late September to Mid-October

One of the great things about being somewhere you have elevation is that it extends the duration of the peak fall colors. That peak starts at the top of the mountain and progressively works its way down to the bottom. Instead of just having a one or two week window of peak fall colors, that window can be as long as 4 to 6 weeks, depending on the height of the mountain. That’s part of what makes fall colors in places like Colorado so spectacular.

You can take full advantage of this strategy right in New England. At 6,288 feet (1,917 m) above sea level, the summit of Mt. Washington is both the highest point in the northeast and the most prominent feature east of the Mississippi River. By varying your elevation, the window of peak fall colors on Mt. Washington often lasts at least three to four weeks, if not more.

Furthermore, the summit of Mt. Washington has the added advantage that it’s above the tree line. Indeed, on a clear day, you can see Canada, Maine, Vermont, and Massachusetts from the summit. With an unobstructed view from the summit, being able to see the blanket of brilliant New England fall colors for miles and miles is nothing short of breathtaking. Just be aware that the road up the mountain is very steep, narrow, and winding with sheer dropoffs and no guardrails. If that type of driving is not for you, take the train to the top or hire one of the tour companies to drive you up.

“The Worst Weather in the World”

If you decide to venture all the way to the summit, make sure you bring warm clothing. There’s a reason the observatory uses the slogan “the worst weather in the world.” The summit of Mt. Washington is famous for having some of the worst weather in the world. The summit can be 30 to 50 degrees (Fahrenheit) colder than the base of the mountain. Freezing temperatures and snow can occur year round.

In addition to its frigid temperatures, the summit is notorious for its relentless winds because it’s high enough to pierce the jet stream. Tropical storm force winds are a routine occurrence. On 12 April, 1934, anemometers at the summit of Mt. Washington recorded a wind gust of 231 mph (372 km/h). To this day, that record still stands as the strongest wind gust ever recorded with an anemometer in the Northern Hemisphere. On a side note, those 300-plus mph wind gusts recorded in Oklahoma tornadoes in 1999 and 2013 were measured with doppler radar, not with anemometers. That’s why Mt. Washington’s record still stands today.

Tip: After visiting Mt. Washington, drive the nearby Kancamagus Highway (NH-112) through the breathtaking White Mountain National Forest. You’ll see covered bridges, beautiful mountain landscapes, and some of the best fall colors in New Hampshire.

4. Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway and the Height of Land Overlook, Maine

Peak Fall Colors: Early to Mid-October

Tucked away in the corner of Maine near the triple point where Maine, New Hampshire, and Québec come together, the Height of Land Overlook is a true hidden gem. The blanket of brilliant warm fall colors on the mountains rising up from the sparkling blue waters of three large lakes is simply heavenly. The entire scenic byway is far enough off the beaten path that there are very few people up there even at the height of fall colors. It’s actually closer to Sherbrooke, Québec than any significant population center in either Maine or New Hampshire.

In addition to the Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway, the area is full of beautiful drives that are just spectacular when fall colors are at their peak. From the town of Rangeley, head west on Highway 16 to Errol, NH. Alternatively, head north on Highway 27 to the Canadian border. For even more adventure, cross the border into Québec and complete the loop.

5. The Northeast Kingdom, Vermont

Peak Fall Colors: Late September to Mid-October

Vermont is the most popular destination in New England to see fall colors. Not surprisingly, getting away from crowds can be a bit of a challenge. Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom is exactly where you would expect it to be: tucked away in the northeast corner of the state in the heart of the breathtaking Green Mountains. You’ll find stunning vistas and beautiful landscapes nearly everywhere you look. Covering over 2,000 square miles, the Northeast Kingdom is one of the most sparsely populated areas in Vermont.

Like the Height of Land Overlook, the Northeast Kingdom is far enough off the beaten path that few people venture up there. Instead, most leaf peepers stay further west, near Montpelier and Burlington. The many ski resorts near the city provide easy access to pretty spectacular fall colors. You shouldn’t have too many issues with crowds in the Northeast Kingdom. However, if you do, don’t be afraid to hop across the border into New York, New Hampshire, or Québec. You’ll often find much smaller crowds there.

6. QC-247 and Autoroute 10: The Gateway to Fall Colors in Québec

Peak Fall Colors: Late September to Early October

Okay, this is technically not New England, but hear me out. With Canada having reopened its border to fully vaccinated travelers, don’t rule out fall colors north of the border. The landscapes can be even more scenic than New England, and crowds are few and far between. Fall foliage viewing opportunities in Québec alone cover more land area than New England several times over. And southern Québec is full of something you won’t find too many of in New England: National Parks.

Heading east out of Montréal, you’ll find four National Parks within 25 miles (40 km) of the US border. They’re all within a three hour drive from downtown Montréal. Head north from Montréal an you’ll find even more than the parks listed below.

If the National Parks leave you craving even more fall colors, head to any of the lakes that cover the southern Québec landscape. You’ll find the most accessible lakes near Sherbrooke and Magog. However, you shouldn’t stop there. Just 60 miles (100 km) northeast of Sherbrooke, you’ll find Lac St. François, which sits inside of Parc National du Frontenac, as well as Lac Mégantic. While much of the town of Lac Mégantic burned down following the infamous rail disaster in 2013, scenery around the lake that goes by the same name is simply breathtaking.

Don’t Be Intimidated By the Language Barrier

One of the primary reasons there are so fewer crowds viewing fall colors in Québec is due to many Americans being hesitant to cross the border because of the language barrier. If you’re near a major population center, such as Montréal or Sherbrooke, or a popular tourist destination, such as the national parks, you will not have any major issues speaking English only. However, once you get away from the cities and the tourist spots, it’s all French. You will stumble across people that speak English, but don’t count on it.

Like the United States, Canada’s federal government runs all of its National Parks. Because English and French are both official languages in Canada, everything inside the National Parks is bilingual. However, be aware that French is the only official language in Québec, so outside of the National Parks, road signs (and most everything else) are in French only.

COVID-19 Restrictions Entering Canada

Please obey all rules, regulations, and restrictions that Canada has put in place due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While we went over the process when Canada first reopened its border back in August, please visit the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) website for the most up-to-date requirements you need to enter Canada. While there are plenty of border crossings between New England and Québec, I make no guarantee that the smaller border crossings are open during the COVID-19 pandemic. Please consult with either the CBSA or with US Customs to get their latest hours of operation.

Conclusion

Peak fall colors is a truly magical time of year in New England. The soft warm colors of the changing leaves against a brilliant blue sky only makes that crisp and clean fall air taste even better. Even through the leaf peeper crowds have grown in recent years, there are still plenty of places to get away from the masses, and enjoy the peace and serenity of having the spectacular New England fall colors to yourself.

Finally, while this post has focused on New England, don’t forget about New York. While upstate offers the best viewing opportunities, the entire State of New York has pretty amazing fall colors, too. Sitting just across the river from Vermont with plenty of wilderness to offer, New York is an easy escape from the crowds that can gather in parts of New England. Where is your favorite spot to see fall colors?

Top Photo: Peak Fall Colors on the Talimena Scenic Byway
Talihina, Oklahoma – November, 2013

The post 6 Lesser Known New England Spots to See Amazing Fall Colors appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Recent Model Performance

Why am I so concerned? First, my coronavirus model is predicting rather apocalyptic numbers across several states. Second, the model has been deadly accurate with its projections since the beginning of July. My coronavirus model forecasts case counts for the 50 US States and 6 Canadian Provinces at 2 weeks and 1 month from the date of the model run.

A Troubling Precursor: Melbourne, Australia

The most alarming peek into the crystal ball is the significant outbreak of COVID-19 over the 2020 winter in Melbourne, Australia. Starting in late June, a cluster of cases emerged and rapidly spread through the city, peaking in early August before finally tapering off in late September.

Australian officials deemed the likely cause of the outbreak to be people letting their guard down after Australia’s strict lockdown in April. Does that sound familiar to you?

You know what’s even more concerning about this outbreak, in the context of the United States and Canada? Australia had its outbreak well under control throughout late fall and into the start of winter. The entire country averaged less than 10 new cases per day in early and mid-June. Despite officials putting Melbourne into a very strict lockdown and sealing the entire State of Victoria off from the rest of the country, cases spiked to about 800 per day at their peak in early August, an increase of 2 orders of magnitude, or about 100-fold.

Diving into the Numbers

Let’s do a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation to extrapolate Australia’s outbreak to the United States and Canada. While Australia averaged about 8 new cases per day heading into its winter, the United States is currently averaging 45,000 new cases per day, and Canada is averaging 2,000.

Keep in mind, we’ve still got 2 months to go before the start of our winter in December. It’s also unlikely that either the US or Canada will see the same strict lockdowns and restrictions that were implemented in Victoria.

45,000 * 100 = 4,500,000

2,000 * 100 = 200,000

Come on, there’s no way this will actually happen, right? I sure hope not. It’s possible, though not very likely. Remember that everyone said that the US would get a reprieve from the pandemic over the summer, only to see cases spike to 80,000 per day across the Sun Belt.

General Outlook for This Fall and Winter

In many of the states and provinces listed below, you likely will not see the huge spikes like you saw previously in places like New York City, Miami, Melbourne, Los Angeles, and Houston. Instead, it will be a much slower increase due to the lower population density in these states, but the model is showing the potential for the virus to rip through a significant portion of their populations.

In the plots below, I have extended the coronavirus model run out further than one month. Please keep in mind that its accuracy diminishes significantly past the one month mark.

Montana

Montana successfully suppressed the coronavirus over the spring and summer. It is now one of many states in the north-central United States staring down a substantial outbreak of COVID-19. This outbreak will feel much different than the outbreaks across the northeast and the Sun Belt earlier this year.

Instead of a massive and rapid spike, the disease will spread much slower through the community. However, the surge will likely last longer and impact a larger portion of the population than in more populous states.

Previous outbreaks across the northeast and the Sun Belt lasted about 2 to 3 months. Montana’s outbreak will likely last 6 to 8 months due to lower transmission rates. In the worst case scenario, the model expects about 30% of Montanans to come down with COVID-19.

North Dakota

North Dakota has by far the highest average number of new cases per capita for any state since the pandemic began, a distinction that formerly belonged to Arizona. At the peak of its summer spike, Arizona saw a maximum 7-day average of about 510 new cases per million people. North Dakota has seen that number as high as 659 within the past two weeks. The model’s current worst case scenario shows over 60% of North Dakotans contracting COVID-19 by the end of the pandemic.

Ontario

The current situation in Ontario is quite fascinating. Over the past few weeks, cases have surged, showing signs of going into a full-blown outbreak, but each time you’ve managed to pull it back from the precipice. Just how long you can keep it up is up to you. There’s still time to prevent a spike.

I am particularly concerned about the heavily populated areas along the Highway 401 corridor, as well as the City of Ottawa, as we get deeper into the fall. It won’t take much to tip things over the edge and look a lot more like neighboring Québec.

Québec

Québec has been Canada’s epicenter for the majority of the pandemic. After successfully flattening the curve throughout the summer, cases are not just trending upwards as people are driven indoors, they’re accelerating upward. Though I don’t believe any outbreak in Québec will be as bad as ones in the US, without any action, you’ll likely be at 250,000 to 300,000 cases by March, 2021.

Le Québec a été l’epicentre du Canada pour la plupart de la pandémie. Après avoir réussi à aplatir la courbe pendant tout l’été, les cas ne sont pas seulement à la hausse quand tout le monde vient à l’intérieur, ils accélèrent à la hausse. Je ne crois pas qu’une éclosion au Québec sera aussi grave que celles aux États-Unis, mais sans aucune action, vous aurez probablement entre 250,000 et 300,000 cas en mars, 2021.

South Dakota

North Dakota may own the highest average number of new cases per capita, but South Dakota just shattered all previous records for the largest single day increase in new cases per capita. Two days ago, South Dakota saw a single-day increase of 1,141 new cases per million people.

COVID-19 is considered under control when that number drops below 50 new cases per million people per day. Like North Dakota, the model’s worst case scenario shows over 60% of South Dakotans contracting COVID-19. That’s up from about 11% just a few weeks ago.

Utah

Cases in Utah have been smoldering throughout the spring and summer, but are starting to burn after a significant acceleration in the rate of spread that started in early September. Without action, I expect that the rate of spread in Utah will not just continue, it will also accelerate.

While it’s unlikely you’ll see a New York-type spike, a surge similar to the one you saw in neighboring Arizona over the summer is certainly possible. Hospital and ICU bed usage is already near record highs. The coronavirus model is currently forecasting that over 12% of Utah’s population could be infected by the end of the pandemic, so you should be taking immediate action to flatten the curve.

West Virginia

West Virginia is currently in a situation similar to Utah’s, as transmission rates have recently begun to accelerate. The model is showing the potential for a significant outbreak of cases, but the window to prevent such a scenario is till open.

Under the current trajectory, it’s unlikely West Virginia will see a New York or Florida-like spike. The hospital system can handle the current surge, but the virus slowly ripping through the population can still do a lot of damage. The latest model runs show the current surge peaking in early November, infecting at most about 8% of the population.

Wisconsin

Of all the states and provinces on this list, I am most concerned about Wisconsin. With a significant outbreak of cases already underway, exponential growth is also accelerating.

Just a couple of weeks ago, the model predicted that only 7% of Wisconsin’s population could become infected. That number has jumped to 25% with the latest model run. At the peak of Florida’s outbreak this summer, the model never predicted more than 9% of Floridians could contract COVID-19.

So why am I so concerned with Wisconsin when both of the Dakotas are showing that up to 60% of their populations could possibly be infected?

• With 5.9 million residents, Wisconsin’s population is over 3.5 times larger than the populations of North Dakota (760,000) and South Dakota (885,000) combined.
• Wisconsin’s population centers are larger and denser than anywhere in the Dakotas. The coronavirus spreads much easier in those areas.
• Much of Wisconsin’s population lives in close proximity to one of the nation’s largest cities. Chicago is a hub of economic activity, transport, travel, and much more.
  • Downtown Chicago sits just 85 km (50 mi) from the Wisconsin State Line, and 150 km (93 mi) from Milwaukee.
  • If Wisconsin’s outbreak reaches Chicago, it could spread rapidly to other parts of the United States and the world.

Wyoming

Wyoming is in the same boat as the Dakotas. It’s a low population and low population density state facing a massive, yet slow outbreak of cases. To date, Wyoming’s coronavirus trajectory has been almost identical to South Dakota’s, with a rapid acceleration in transmission rate over the past month or so.

In early September, the model’s worst-case scenarios predicted that about 4% of Wyoming’s population could become infected with COVID-19. Over the past four to five weeks, I have watched that number rapidly rise. As of yesterday’s model run, it had risen to 50%, up from 35% just the week before. It is showing no signs of slowing down.

Other States That Should Be On Alert

After ripping through the northeast and the Sun Belt, the United States’ epicenter has set its sights on the Midwest and the Mississippi River Valley. These outbreaks will now be exacerbated as cooler weather drives people indoors. There is still time to take action to prevent clusters and surges, but these states should be on high alert.

• Arkansas
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Kentucky
• Minnesota
• Missouri
• Nebraska
• Oklahoma

Additionally, any state or province with large population centers in the northern US or southern Canada should be on high alert for surges in coronavirus. Cool fall weather driving people indoors is already seeding upticks in cases in many of the following states and provinces.

• Alberta
• British Columbia
• Colorado
• Indiana
• Illinois
• Manitoba
• Massachusetts
• Michigan
• New Jersey
• New York
• Pennsylvania
• Ohio
• Washington – both Washington State and the District of Columbia

If you live in the southern half of the US, you are by no means out of the woods. This wave will reach you when cooler weather arrives later this fall. Take the time now to plan and prepare to keep yourself, your loved ones, and your fellow citizens safe.

Conclusion

Infectious disease experts have been warning us since April about the likelihood of a significant wave of coronavirus throughout the fall and winter months. Looking at preliminary data, coupled with predictions from several coronavirus models, it’s becoming increasingly clear that experts’ warnings are coming to fruition and that fall and winter wave may already be underway. Wash your hands often, wear your mask in public, and keep your distance from others, and we’ll get through this together.

Top Photo: View of the Summer Monsoon from a Lookout atop the Mogollon Rim
Payson, Arizona – July, 2017

The post My Coronavirus Model is Confirming Dire Warnings in These 9 States appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I only ran the models out until early May because we need to focus on what’s going to happen in the next two to three weeks, not what’s going to be happening several months in the future. Additionally, model forecasts get less accurate the further into the future you go. This run assumes current social distancing restrictions remain in place through mid-May and does not account for any additional surges or waves of the virus that may occur later this spring, this summer, or this fall.

Don’t forget, you can always get more information about the model and view detailed case data on my COVID-19 Dashboard. Additionally, I will write up a separate post about the mathematics, equations, and methodologies used in my coronavirus model, which I’m hoping to get posted in the next day or two. Stay tuned for additional discussions about each hot zone as more data comes in.

Alberta

Arizona

British Columbia

California

Connecticut

Florida

Georgia

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

Oklahoma

Ontario

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Québec

Rhode Island

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

U.S. Virgin Islands

Washington (State)

After several requests, I updated this post on 16 April, 2020 to include additional states and provinces, bringing the total to 26 plots instead of 24.

Top Photo: Palo Duro Canyon State Park – Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post A Look at the Best-Fit COVID-19 Model Curves for 24 Key States and Provinces appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Overview of SIR Model Output

Each city has four plots. The top row is the “working” model output, with the model curve best fit to the actual data. The bottom row is an experimental model output showing the effect of social distancing. In the “working” model runs on the top row, there are 5 lines on each plot. The middle line is the R Naught value that was reverse-engineered by fitting the model output to the actual data, and there are two lines on each side of the best-fit line showing different R Naught values in steps of 0.2.

Note: The y-axis on some of the experimental social distancing plots showing the total case count (bottom right plot for each city) is mislabeled. It should read “Total Cases”, not “Number of Infected”.

Finally, don’t forget that the plots below assume the R Naught values and the amount of social distancing remains constant throughout the entire time series. In reality, additional social distancing restrictions will dampen the curve and shift it to the right, while removing social distancing restrictions will cause the curve to accelerate and shift to the left.

Confidence in SIR Model Predictions

My confidence level in the “working”/top row model outputs is as follows:

• Predicting the apex of the outbreak: medium-high to high. The curves should at least be “in the ballpark.”
• Predicting the total number of cases: low to very low. With how fast things are changing right now and how fast new data is coming in, we just don’t know at this point. My gut feeling is that the case count projections in these model runs are likely high overall, but from a public health perspective, I would much rather have the model overestimate case counts than underestimate them.

Plots are in alphabetical order by city, with a table of additional cities at the bottom. Click on any plot to view it full size.

Boston, Massachusetts

Chicago, Illinois

Detroit, Michigan

Los Angeles, California

Montréal, Québec

New Orleans, Louisiana

New York, New York

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Ottawa, Ontario

Portland, Oregon

Phoenix, Arizona

San Francisco, California

Tampa, Florida

Toronto, Ontario

SIR Model Outputs for Additional Cities

Please note that this table contains outputs of just this single model run and does not necessarily reflect what my actual predictions are. I will be putting this table on my COVID-19 Pandemic Tracker later this week and regularly updating it there.

Data points I’m skeptical of in this output (with some comments):

• Chicago, IL: Case count is likely overestimated. I’m not sure why, but the most likely reason is good social distancing.
• Los Angeles, CA: Case count is likely overestimated due to California being better at social distancing than what was input into the model
• Seattle, WA: Peak date is incorrect due to the State of Washington’s 100th case occurring before John’s Hopkins began breaking down data by state.
• Washington, DC: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve
• Winnipeg, MB: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve

The post Complete Revised SIR Model Forecasts (8 April): USA and Canada appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Access the Haskell Free Library From Either the US or Canada

Like Rue Canusa, the rules are simple. You can enter the library from either the US or Canada, but you must return to the country you entered from. You can move freely inside the library, as if the border was not there. There is no customs checkpoint to go into the library, as there is no border crossing there. If you need to formally cross the border, there two ports of entry within about half a kilometer of the library.

While there is parking on both sides of the border, the only entrance into the library is from the US. If you come from Canada, you must stay on the sidewalk and go directly to the front door. There is a US Border Patrol agent just outside the library who can help you if you need anything.

The library is completely bilingual, with books in both English and French. They also have French-speaking and English-speaking librarians. When you walk into the library, one of the first things you’ll notice is the black line across the floor. That black line is the international border.

For a small space, the library had an impressive choice of books, especially when you consider that the books are in both English and French. Genres ranged from children’s books to young adult novels to many different kinds of fiction and non-fiction.

A Look At the Border Near the Haskell Free Library

Before jumping in to look at the border, take a step back and think of all of the fences, barriers, razor wire, and other deterrents at the US-Mexico border to discourage illegal crossings. If that’s one end of the spectrum, the border at the library would be the opposite end of the spectrum. Here, the US-Canada border is protected by … cue the drumroll …

… a row of flower pots.

While you may be tempted to laugh, this picture is an ode to the simpler times in the early-to-mid 20th century. As you drive through both Derby Line and Stanstead, you will see plenty of surface streets like the one seen in the picture that cross the international border and link the two towns.

An Ode to a Simpler Time

You could pass freely between the two towns before both countries tightened border security. Today, all of those streets now have fences, gates, or in this case, flower pots, across the road. It’s now highly illegal now to cross the border anywhere other than an official port of entry. If you’re caught illegally crossing the border now, you may face fines, imprisonment, deportation, and/or being barred from entering the country for a minimum of 5 years. Don’t even think about doing it.

Here are a few more photos of the border near the library.

The Final Stretch

As I get on Interstate 91 to head south, it finally starts to set in that this incredible adventure is coming to a close. I found truly fitting that with my history of chasing storms in Oklahoma, I had to tiptoe my way through severe thunderstorms and Tornado Warnings as I made my way through New Hampshire and Massachusetts. I am happy to report that I made it safely to my parent’s house in Massachusetts without incident from the severe weather.

This is not a trip that will be forgotten anytime soon, but I’m looking forward to spending time with my family and then gearing up for the “business” part of the trip. I’ll be loading up a trailer with the rest of my stuff that my mom and dad still have and hauling it back to Arizona. Here are some final numbers from the trip:

• Total Distance: 5,587.3 km
• Total Driving Time: 58 hrs, 4 mins
• Countries Visited: 3
• States/Provinces Visited: 15
  • Mexico: 1 (Sonora)
  • USA: 12 (AZ, NM, TX, OK, MO, IL, IN, OH, MI, VT, NH, MA)
  • Canada: 2 (Ontario, Québec)
• Duration of Trip: 11 Days

The post Road Trip 2019: Haskell Free Library and Opera House appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Rue Canusa is a Glimpse into the Past

It wasn’t too long ago that crossing the US-Canada border was much more open than it is today. Small border towns became united by the fact that the border ran right down the middle of them. Customs checkpoints were minimal, and in town, you could cross back and forth between the two countries pretty freely. However, both the United States and Canada began to crack down on border security during the second half of the 20th century. As a result, the international border quickly morphed into a divider instead of a symbol of unity in most border communities.

Two communities that seem to have defied the border division over time are the towns of Stanstead, Québec and Derby Line, Vermont. They remain united by Rue Canusa (French) or Canusa St. What makes the road unique is that the international border runs right down the middle of the street. The houses on one side of the street are in Vermont, and the houses on the other side of the street are in Québec. We can take it a step further. When you’re driving down the street, the traffic coming in the other direction is in a different country.

What About Customs?

So I know exactly what you’re wondering, here. How does customs work here? It’s actually pretty simple. Rue Canusa is a Québec Provincial Highway (QC-247). If you’re coming from Canada and staying in Canada (i.e. not going to any of the houses on the Vermont side of the street), you do not need to check in with customs. If you’re doing anything else, you must report to customs. My understanding is that there is a special protocol for people who live on Rue Canusa, but I do not know what it is. Rue Canusa is only about 500 meters in length, so there really aren’t that many houses along it.

Rue Canusa in Photos

Here is short a photo essay of my drive down Rue Canusa. I was heading eastbound, so Québec is on the left side of the street and Vermont is on the right side of the street.

Well, that was a really cool little detour. It’s now after 4 PM, so it’s time to scoot back across the border into the US. Our final stop of this epic adventure is the Haskell Free Library and Opera House.

The post Rue Canusa: A Symbol of Unity on the US-Canada Border appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Histoire #1: There Are a Lot of Centrevilles in Canada

Il y a beaucoup des Centrevilles au Canada.

This one comes from my uncle. When he first moved to Canada many many years ago, he noticed tons of signs for the town of Centreville. They were everywhere. It felt like every other town he came across was called Centreville.

It didn’t take him long to figure out that Centreville was not the name of the towns. The signs were for “Centre-ville”, which means “downtown” in French.

Histoire #2: Le Pont à Péage et Les Ensignes Bizarres

After crossing the border from Ontario into Québec, my top priority quickly became getting around Montréal before a) the bad weather set in and b) rush hour began. I had the route all mapped out before leaving Arizona, so I knew exactly where I needed to go. Follow L’Autoroute du Souvenir, which is what the 401 becomes when you cross into Québec. Take Autoroute 30, which is the bypass road around the south and east side of Montréal. On the other side of Montréal, get on Autoroute 10, which provides access to Sherbrooke and points east.

As skies darkened and traffic started to build, I found myself behind a bright yellow semi truck. You don’t see too many colorful semi trailers like that in the United States (or Canada for that matter). It kind of mesmerized me. My GPS then alerted me that we were approaching the turnoff to Autoroute 30. I snapped out of my mesmerized state in order to focus on navigation.

Anyone who has been stuck behind an 18 wheeler knows that seeing signs can be a challenge at times. This is especially true when you’re trying to navigate in traffic or weather – the exact scenario I was in. As I was on the ramp to Autoroute 30 trying to see around the semi, I happened to catch this sign out of the corner of my eye.

An Error in Planning

Now, I’m thinking to myself that I specifically remember planning this trip so that other than the Turner and Rogers Turnpikes in Oklahoma, I would avoid toll roads. Well, apparently I missed one. By now, I was past the point of no return. I had committed to the toll bridge. Thankfully, I had plenty of cash and a credit card with no foreign transaction fees. There was nothing to worry about.

Anyone who has been to the United States knows that most highway signs primarily use words and not diagrams. Anglophone Canada operates pretty much the same way, as does many of the tourist areas of Mexico near the US border. Those areas are increasing efforts to go fully bilingual.

The Ikea Challenge at 100 km/h

It turns out that Québec and Francophone Canada use the European approach to road signs. They use diagrams and not words on their signs. If you’ve ever put together furniture from Ikea, you know what deciphering these diagrams can entail. As I crested the toll bridge, I started to look for the signs for “Espèces” (cash) or “Carte de Crédite” (credit card) to pay the toll.

Instead, I saw two diagram signs. One just had a giant dollar sign on it, and the other looked like a cop trying to arrest someone. This was the Ikea diagram challenge all over again. As an added bonus, this time I had the challenge of doing it at 100 km/h. I wanted to pay with cash, so I essentially ended up just flipping a coin and chose one of the lanes signed by the giant dollar sign. Thankfully, that ended up being the cash lane. I paid the toll and continued on my way to Magog.

Histoire #3: Le Lac que Personne ne Peut Prononcer

Magog, Québec is well-known for its beautiful lakefront, which provides plenty of opportunities for outdoor activities, recreation, and relaxation. The name of the lake, however, is a mouthful. Thankfully, it’s the same in both French and English: Lac Memphrémagog. The name is derived from a Native American (Algonkian) word, Memrahabegek, which means “where there is a big expanse of water”. The lake itself is huge, spanning over 50 km from Magog, Québec south to Newport, Vermont.

Unlike English, almost all words native to the French language are pronounced how they’re spelled. French pronunciations are not quite as straightforward as Spanish pronunciations, but they’re close. Where you start to run into pronunciation issues is where you have words that are not native to the French language, such as “Memphrémagog”. In all of the years I have spent studying the French language, I have never come across a word as long as “Memphrémagog” or a French word where you have so many “unnatural” pronunciations so close together.

Trying to Pronounce Memphrémagog

The evening before I left my uncle’s house, we decided to become a bit more cultured and learn the correct pronunciation of “Memphrémagog”. A quick Google search landed us on a webpage that had sound clips of the correct pronunciation in just about every language you could think of.

With the lake being in Québec, it was only natural to get the proper pronunciation in French first, and then in English. Once we had some good laughs trying to get it right (we eventually did get it right), it was time to truly bring this to the absurd and listen to it in other languages.

Before long, we had also listened to the pronunciation in Spanish, Italian, German, Swedish, Finnish, Polish, Greek, Russian, Serbian, Arabic, Punjabi, Chinese, and Japanese. As expected, it did reach some pretty absurd levels. We had plenty of good laughs trying and failing to pronounce the lake’s name in all these different languages. It amuses me just how easily entertained we are sometimes.

Histoire #4: The Most Canadian Anti-Road Rage Message I’ve Ever Seen

I’m normally not one to poke fun at stereotypes, but sometimes it’s just too easy. Unlike Americans, Canadians are known for being well-mannered, friendly, and at times even too polite. Canada was actually named the most polite country in 2015. With that reputation, you would think something like road rage wouldn’t be an issue, but apparently it still is. Shortly after turning off of L’Autoroute du Souvenir to go around Montréal, I came across this message on an electric sign.

The sign essentially says “Don’t yell at others. Be courteous.” While I’ve seen plenty of humorous electronic signs over the years, I don’t think you’ll see a sign like this in the US anytime soon.

Alors, voici mon sortie sur l’autoroute pour aller à Magog, Rue Canusa, et la frontière des États-Unis. À la prochaine fois!

The post Road Trip 2019: Histoires de la Route vers le Québec appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.