We’re going to look at the same four models as we did for Hurricanes Henri and Ida last summer. However, I just launched a complete redesign of this blog less than a week ago. That redesign will allow us to analyze the models in a way that’s much easier to compare, and hopefully much easier to understand. Let’s get started.

Big Picture Overview

When I look at the “big picture” meteorological setup, I immediately see just how similar this setup is to the October, 2021 nor’easter. That storm slammed into southern New England on 26 October, packing wind gusts over 100 mph (160 km/h) and heavy rains. Trees and power lines were down all over the place, knocking out power for several days. At one point all of Massachusetts south and east of the I-95 corridor was 100% without power.

Likewise, the current storm is a rapidly strengthening, or “bombing” cyclone. To be classified as a bomb cyclone, a storm must undergo a 24 millibar pressure drop in 24 hours. Will that happen with this storm? It remains to be seen, but it’s quite likely.

On the upper air map, you’ll see a large, powerful trough digging south over the Carolinas. That trough will rapidly strengthen, undergoing bombogenesis as it pull north. Look at all the energy, shown in the orange and red colors, off the coast of Georgia and Florida.

What Causes Bombogenesis?

There’s one major feature on the above map that jumps out at me. See the corridor of strong winds that stretches from northern Mexico to the southern tip of Florida? That’s the subtropical jet, which serves two purposes here.

1. Funnels a nearly endless stream of rich tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing bomb cyclone.
2. Exerts a west-to-east force on the southern edge of the nor’easter, which accelerates the spin of the upper-level low.

Both influences will have significant impacts on rain and snowfall totals, as well as wind speeds. We’ll dive into those details shortly. Furthermore, even without the subtropical jet, the storm will track pretty much right over the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream alone provides more than enough fuel for the storm to rapidly strengthen and maintain itself.

Similarities to the October, 2021 Bomb Cyclone

So just how similar are the meteorological setups between this storm and the October nor’easter?

• Both storms are bomb cyclones
• They both formed off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas
• There is an immense amount of tropical moisture to tap into from the Gulf Stream
• Steering currents are nearly identical

This Bomb Cyclone will not Impact New England like the October Storm Did

The greatest impact of the October storm was the widespread power outages. As a New England native, I’ve been through some monster storms over the years. I’ve never seen power outages and downed trees anywhere close to the magnitude we saw following the October nor’easter.

Thankfully, it’s extremely unlikely you’ll see anything remotely close to the magnitude of power outages in October. The biggest difference is that the leaves are no longer on the trees. As a result, the surface area of the trees is far less, meaning that it takes much greater winds to do the same amount of damage. Additionally, the most vulnerable limbs, branches, and trees came down in the October storm. This time around, trees and limbs won’t come down nearly as easily. Don’t get complacent, though. The risk of power outages is definitely there with this storm.

However, where you may dodge one bullet, there are others you’ll have to content with. The shift from fall into winter brings in much colder air. The precipitation in the October storm all fell as rain. This time around, you’ll be dealing with snow. And lots of it.

A Better Storm For Comparison

In fact, for a much similar storm, forget the October nor’easter. Instead, go back to exactly 7 years ago today – 27 January, 2015. That day, the first Blizzard of 2015 dumped over 3 feet of snow across southern New England. It kicked off an infamous snowmageddon winter, that plunged the region into a months-long deep freeze.

All right, enough history. Let’s dive into the models.

Model Comparison: Bomb Cyclone Track and Timing

Let’s look at the same models we did with our analysis of Hurricanes Henri and Ida last summer. If you’ve forgotten those models, here they are.

For tracking and timing, you want to focus on the position of the center of the surface low, denoted by the red “L” on the map. In addition, note the timestamp on the upper left corner of the map. Those timestamps are in Zulu time, or UTC. Eastern time is 5 hours behind UTC. Don’t worry about the wind barbs for now. We’ll look at those in much more detail shortly. Click on any image to view it in full size.

As you can see, the American, European, and Canadian models are in very close agreement with each other. They show the the low passing just offshore of Cape Cod and the Islands around 00Z on Sunday (7 PM EST Saturday). The UKMET shouldn’t be discounted, either. It’s timing agrees with the other three models. Steering currents over the Appalachians can easily push the storm further offshore. However, it’s unlikely that it will pass any closer to the coast than what the GFS, ECMWF, or GDPS indicate.

Model Comparison: Bomb Cyclone Intensity (Pressure)

All right, it’s time to answer the million dollar question: will this storm bomb? To do this, we’ll need to figure out when each model expects the storm to reach its peak intensity, or minimum pressure. Then, we’ll compare the pressure at its peak intensity to the pressure 24 hours earlier. Remember, in order for a storm to be considered a bomb cyclone, it must undergo a 24 millibar pressure drop in 24 hours. Here is when each model expects the storm to reach its peak intensity.

Now, all we need to do is compare it to the same plots 24 hours earlier.

So do the models expect the storm to bomb? Here are their official predictions.

Models are usually not this assertive, but that’s a pretty definitive yes. The storm will bomb. Cue Toots and the Maytals.

Wind Forecast

Whenever a nor’easter undergoes bombogenesis, one thing is assured: there will be wind. Lots of it. So just how much wind will there be? You probably remember the October bomb cyclone, which brought 100-plus mph (160 km/h) wind gusts to southeastern Massachusetts. Thankfully, I’ve got some good news for you: you won’t see winds like that with this storm.

Look North to Canada for the Best Indicators of Potential Wind Speeds

The fiercest nor’easters get their winds from the pressure gradient between the bombing low and a strong high pressure system over southern Québec. But have a look at this. The high over Québec is much further north and east than it traditionally is for the really bad storms. In fact, it’s not over Québec at all. It’s actually over Newfoundland and Labrador.

Because the high is further away, the pressure gradient won’t be as tight. As a result, wind speeds won’t be as high as they would have been had the high been closer. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a tight pressure gradient, and you’ll still get plenty of wind. It just won’t be as bad as it could have been. Combined with the expectation that the center of the low will pass offshore instead of right over Cape Cod and the Islands, I expect winds to be less than the bomb cyclone that hit New England last October. Let’s look at the models.

When I look at the models’ wind predictions, I prefer to look at the sustained winds about 400 to 500 meters above the ground, at 925 mb. In coastal areas, models can sometimes underestimate wind speeds when they try to calculate how friction and terrain impact the wind as it comes off the ocean. The 925 mb (400-500 meter) predictions remove those possible anomalies, and also give you the maximum potential wind speeds.

How Much Wind to Expect in New England

In the wind forecasts above, I don’t see any plausible scenario where the ECMWF (European) model forecast verifies. You just simply aren’t going to get winds that strong that far inland. Using the other three models, it’s clear that the strongest winds will be contained to the immediate coastal areas.

Areas that are exposed to the north along the South Shore and the Cape and Islands will see the greatest impacts from the wind. You’ll find the strongest winds on the Cape and Islands. Right now, my best guess is that sustained winds will peak in the 40-50 knot range in exposed areas across the Cape and Islands. Hurricane-force gusts are certainly possible, but I don’t expect anything close to the 100 mph gusts that ripped through during the October storm.

Temperature and Wind Chill: How Cold will the Bomb Cyclone Get?

Despite the availability of rich, tropical moisture, the bomb cyclone will have a very well-established cold core by the time it reaches New England. Furthermore, all of New England and the Canadian Maritimes will be on the cold side of the storm as it passes by. As a result, you should expect bitterly cold wind chills during the bomb cyclone. The models are all in agreement.

Expected Temperatures

Expected Wind Chills

When looking at temperatures and wind chills, you really need to look at the coast vs inland. Even in extreme conditions, the ocean still helps regulate temperatures near the coast. That being said, with the exception of Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and possibly parts of the outer Cape, wind chills will struggle to get out of the single digits. If you’re inland, you’ll see sub-zero wind chills for pretty much the duration of the event.

Precipitation Type

With strong northerly winds, sub-zero wind chills, and everywhere on the cold side of the system, it should not be a surprise that this will be a snow event. Parts of the outer Cape and the Islands may briefly see a little ice mix in during the warmest part of the storm early Saturday afternoon. Other than that, it will be all snow.

On the models, we’ll look at the maximum temperature in the vertical column of air during the warmest part of the storm. Blue and purple indicates that the entire column is below freezing. You will see snow in those areas. Areas in green may briefly see some ice or sleet mix in early Saturday afternoon before changing back to all snow. That’s a result of air on the warm side of the storm wrapping around the top of the low as it approaches.

The European and British models do not calculate the maximum vertical temperature, so we’ll only consider the American and Canadian models. As you can see, their two predictions are nearly identical.

Snowfall Totals Will Be Measured in Feet, Not Inches

Whenever you have a storm that has both bitterly cold temperatures and an ample fuel supply of rich, tropical moisture, you’re going to get massive snowfall totals. However, there is a bit of a silver lining. All four models are showing noticeably less snow totals than they were yesterday. Unfortunately, they are still showing around two to three feet maximum snowfall totals for this bomb cyclone.

Because the GFS and GDPS models use the Kuchera Ratio, which is the most accurate, to predict snowfall, we’ll give the heaviest weight to those models. However, for a number of reasons, nailing down exact snowfall totals for a precise location is extremely difficult in this scenario.

1. The low still hasn’t really formed yet, so we don’t have any actual data from it to feed into the models.
2. The snowfall gradients are tight. A small wobble in the storm track can make a big difference in the snow totals. For example, take any of the above predictions and shift the snowfall totals 40-50 miles east or west.
3. A westward shift in the storm’s track may mean some areas – particularly parts of the Cape and Islands – may see more ice, sleet, or mixed precipitation on Saturday afternoon, which would reduce snowfall totals. Again here, a small shift in the storm’s track can make a big difference. In this scenario, inland areas would also see greater snowfall totals.
4. An eastern shift in the storm’s track would shift the precipitation shield east, meaning the heaviest snow could fall offshore.

How Much Snow Should You Expect?

We can give equal weight to all four models to determine where the heaviest snow will fall. Given my experience both with the models and with these types of bomb cyclones, I think the heaviest snow will set up in southeastern New England, along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor. Rhode Island will take a pretty good wallop, but will ultimately be spared the worst of the snowfall. Total accumulations will drop rapidly once you get west of I-95.

For the largest snow totals, I think 20 to 24 inches across Bristol and Plymouth Counties in Massachusetts is your safest bet at this point. That swath will likely spread across western Barnstable County (Cape Cod) and up into the far southern suburbs of Boston as well. 28 to 32 inches in a few isolated spots is certainly not out of the question, either, but I am not expecting widespread totals above 2 feet.

Summary

I know there’s a lot of information in this post, so let’s put it into a nice, clean table to summarize everything.

Conclusion

Like many other bomb cyclones, this is certainly a storm that you’re certainly going to want to take seriously. However, New England has certainly gone through far worse in the past. Make sure you stock up on what you’ll need for a few days, and then hunker down at home and enjoy it. The storm is fast moving, so it’ll be in and out in only about 24 hours. Then it’s just a matter of digging out, cleaning up, and getting back to your normal routine.

If you have any questions about anything related to this storm, please let me know in the comments below or reach out to me directly.

The post Wicked Bomb Cyclone Set to Pound New England with Fierce Winds and Heavy Snow appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

While fall colors used to be local New England tradition, they now attract visitors from all over the world. As you can expect, the more popular areas often attract large crowds. These crowds take a lot of the magic of New England fall colors out of the air. Thankfully, there are plenty of places to see amazing fall colors in places that are both off-the-beaten-path and places where you wouldn’t normally think of fall foliage. Here are six of my favorite places in New England to escape the crowds and see some of the best fall foliage the region has to offer.

1. Merritt Parkway, Connecticut

Peak Fall Colors: Late October

The Merritt Parkway runs parallel to Interstate 95 across the western third of Connecticut. With its western terminus sitting just 25 miles from downtown Manhattan, it’s an easy day trip from both New York City and Hartford. The parkway is incredibly scenic for being in such a densely populated area. As a result, it’s one of the most underrated spots in southern New England to see fall colors.

When you drive the Merritt Parkway, you’ll experience the Scenic Gateway to New England. Trailers and commercial vehicles are banned, so you’ll only be sharing the road with passenger cars. With a very old-time and classic New England feel, the elaborate architecture of the Merritt Parkway’s overpasses alone is worth the drive. The trees are close to the road and often overhang the road like a tunnel. During peak fall colors, it’s absolutely spectacular.

Unfortunately, being so close to New York City also comes with its disadvantages. Traffic can be horrendous if you hit the Merritt Parkway at the wrong time of day (read: rush hour). Furthermore, many drivers consider speed limits and yield signs to be just a suggestion, which can make for white knuckle driving during rush hour. The parkway has very narrow lanes and no shoulders. As a result, accidents are fairly common, and one minor fender bender can shut down the entire parkway.

Under no circumstance should you use those disadvantages as an excuse to not drive the Merritt Parkway. Just try to avoid it at rush hour. If you run into traffic, don’t hesitate to get off and drive north (away from I-95) on the surface streets. You don’t have to go far to get out of the congestion, away from civilization, and out into nature where you’ll have the breathtaking New England fall colors all to yourself.

2. Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Peak Fall Colors: Late October/Early November

OK, I’m a bit biased here because I grew up on Cape Cod and my family still lives there. But it doesn’t diminish that the Cape is absolutely spectacular in the fall. In fact, September and October are probably my two favorite months to be on Cape Cod. The summer tourists have long since gone home, so crowds are virtually non-existent. However, do note that things may be a bit busier than normal, as people from both Boston and New York have been using their Cape homes to escape the city during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As popular as Cape Cod is during the summer, most people don’t consider it for viewing fall colors. Not that I’m complaining, I like it when it’s quiet. But most people instead look to northern New England and the western half of Massachusetts for the best fall foliage viewing. Cape Cod’s world-famous beaches combined with peak fall colors provide you with an intense sensory overload of colors that cover nearly the entire color wheel.

So where would I go to see fall colors on Cape Cod? The most scenic drive hands down in Route 6A. Take the first exit after you go over the Sagamore Bridge and follow Route 6A down Cape to its eastern terminus in Orleans. You’ll pass beaches, nature preserves, and quaint towns. From Orleans, you have a few options. You can continue further on US-6 East up to Provincetown and take in the fall colors along the Cape Cod National Seashore. Or, if you’re ready to head home, just get on the Mid-Cape Highway (US-6) going west. It’s about a 40 minute drive back to the Sagamore Bridge. There are plenty more options to see fall colors on Cape Cod, but if you only had one day, I’d drive Route 6A.

Finally, if you’re considering a trip to Cape Cod to take in the fall colors, pay at least some attention to the weather during the two or three weeks before you arrive. Late season hurricanes and early season nor’easters occasionally impact Cape Cod in mid-to-late October. These storms can (and more often than not do) blow all the leaves off the trees before fall colors peak. The last thing you want is to make the trip only to find a recent storm ruined peak fall colors for you. Thankfully, these October storms are the exception instead of the rule on Cape Cod.

3. Mount Washington, New Hampshire

Peak Fall Colors: Late September to Mid-October

One of the great things about being somewhere you have elevation is that it extends the duration of the peak fall colors. That peak starts at the top of the mountain and progressively works its way down to the bottom. Instead of just having a one or two week window of peak fall colors, that window can be as long as 4 to 6 weeks, depending on the height of the mountain. That’s part of what makes fall colors in places like Colorado so spectacular.

You can take full advantage of this strategy right in New England. At 6,288 feet (1,917 m) above sea level, the summit of Mt. Washington is both the highest point in the northeast and the most prominent feature east of the Mississippi River. By varying your elevation, the window of peak fall colors on Mt. Washington often lasts at least three to four weeks, if not more.

Furthermore, the summit of Mt. Washington has the added advantage that it’s above the tree line. Indeed, on a clear day, you can see Canada, Maine, Vermont, and Massachusetts from the summit. With an unobstructed view from the summit, being able to see the blanket of brilliant New England fall colors for miles and miles is nothing short of breathtaking. Just be aware that the road up the mountain is very steep, narrow, and winding with sheer dropoffs and no guardrails. If that type of driving is not for you, take the train to the top or hire one of the tour companies to drive you up.

“The Worst Weather in the World”

If you decide to venture all the way to the summit, make sure you bring warm clothing. There’s a reason the observatory uses the slogan “the worst weather in the world.” The summit of Mt. Washington is famous for having some of the worst weather in the world. The summit can be 30 to 50 degrees (Fahrenheit) colder than the base of the mountain. Freezing temperatures and snow can occur year round.

In addition to its frigid temperatures, the summit is notorious for its relentless winds because it’s high enough to pierce the jet stream. Tropical storm force winds are a routine occurrence. On 12 April, 1934, anemometers at the summit of Mt. Washington recorded a wind gust of 231 mph (372 km/h). To this day, that record still stands as the strongest wind gust ever recorded with an anemometer in the Northern Hemisphere. On a side note, those 300-plus mph wind gusts recorded in Oklahoma tornadoes in 1999 and 2013 were measured with doppler radar, not with anemometers. That’s why Mt. Washington’s record still stands today.

Tip: After visiting Mt. Washington, drive the nearby Kancamagus Highway (NH-112) through the breathtaking White Mountain National Forest. You’ll see covered bridges, beautiful mountain landscapes, and some of the best fall colors in New Hampshire.

4. Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway and the Height of Land Overlook, Maine

Peak Fall Colors: Early to Mid-October

Tucked away in the corner of Maine near the triple point where Maine, New Hampshire, and Québec come together, the Height of Land Overlook is a true hidden gem. The blanket of brilliant warm fall colors on the mountains rising up from the sparkling blue waters of three large lakes is simply heavenly. The entire scenic byway is far enough off the beaten path that there are very few people up there even at the height of fall colors. It’s actually closer to Sherbrooke, Québec than any significant population center in either Maine or New Hampshire.

In addition to the Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway, the area is full of beautiful drives that are just spectacular when fall colors are at their peak. From the town of Rangeley, head west on Highway 16 to Errol, NH. Alternatively, head north on Highway 27 to the Canadian border. For even more adventure, cross the border into Québec and complete the loop.

5. The Northeast Kingdom, Vermont

Peak Fall Colors: Late September to Mid-October

Vermont is the most popular destination in New England to see fall colors. Not surprisingly, getting away from crowds can be a bit of a challenge. Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom is exactly where you would expect it to be: tucked away in the northeast corner of the state in the heart of the breathtaking Green Mountains. You’ll find stunning vistas and beautiful landscapes nearly everywhere you look. Covering over 2,000 square miles, the Northeast Kingdom is one of the most sparsely populated areas in Vermont.

Like the Height of Land Overlook, the Northeast Kingdom is far enough off the beaten path that few people venture up there. Instead, most leaf peepers stay further west, near Montpelier and Burlington. The many ski resorts near the city provide easy access to pretty spectacular fall colors. You shouldn’t have too many issues with crowds in the Northeast Kingdom. However, if you do, don’t be afraid to hop across the border into New York, New Hampshire, or Québec. You’ll often find much smaller crowds there.

6. QC-247 and Autoroute 10: The Gateway to Fall Colors in Québec

Peak Fall Colors: Late September to Early October

Okay, this is technically not New England, but hear me out. With Canada having reopened its border to fully vaccinated travelers, don’t rule out fall colors north of the border. The landscapes can be even more scenic than New England, and crowds are few and far between. Fall foliage viewing opportunities in Québec alone cover more land area than New England several times over. And southern Québec is full of something you won’t find too many of in New England: National Parks.

Heading east out of Montréal, you’ll find four National Parks within 25 miles (40 km) of the US border. They’re all within a three hour drive from downtown Montréal. Head north from Montréal an you’ll find even more than the parks listed below.

If the National Parks leave you craving even more fall colors, head to any of the lakes that cover the southern Québec landscape. You’ll find the most accessible lakes near Sherbrooke and Magog. However, you shouldn’t stop there. Just 60 miles (100 km) northeast of Sherbrooke, you’ll find Lac St. François, which sits inside of Parc National du Frontenac, as well as Lac Mégantic. While much of the town of Lac Mégantic burned down following the infamous rail disaster in 2013, scenery around the lake that goes by the same name is simply breathtaking.

Don’t Be Intimidated By the Language Barrier

One of the primary reasons there are so fewer crowds viewing fall colors in Québec is due to many Americans being hesitant to cross the border because of the language barrier. If you’re near a major population center, such as Montréal or Sherbrooke, or a popular tourist destination, such as the national parks, you will not have any major issues speaking English only. However, once you get away from the cities and the tourist spots, it’s all French. You will stumble across people that speak English, but don’t count on it.

Like the United States, Canada’s federal government runs all of its National Parks. Because English and French are both official languages in Canada, everything inside the National Parks is bilingual. However, be aware that French is the only official language in Québec, so outside of the National Parks, road signs (and most everything else) are in French only.

COVID-19 Restrictions Entering Canada

Please obey all rules, regulations, and restrictions that Canada has put in place due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While we went over the process when Canada first reopened its border back in August, please visit the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) website for the most up-to-date requirements you need to enter Canada. While there are plenty of border crossings between New England and Québec, I make no guarantee that the smaller border crossings are open during the COVID-19 pandemic. Please consult with either the CBSA or with US Customs to get their latest hours of operation.

Conclusion

Peak fall colors is a truly magical time of year in New England. The soft warm colors of the changing leaves against a brilliant blue sky only makes that crisp and clean fall air taste even better. Even through the leaf peeper crowds have grown in recent years, there are still plenty of places to get away from the masses, and enjoy the peace and serenity of having the spectacular New England fall colors to yourself.

Finally, while this post has focused on New England, don’t forget about New York. While upstate offers the best viewing opportunities, the entire State of New York has pretty amazing fall colors, too. Sitting just across the river from Vermont with plenty of wilderness to offer, New York is an easy escape from the crowds that can gather in parts of New England. Where is your favorite spot to see fall colors?

Top Photo: Peak Fall Colors on the Talimena Scenic Byway
Talihina, Oklahoma – November, 2013

The post 6 Lesser Known New England Spots to See Amazing Fall Colors appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Part I: Rain and Wind

As a vigorous upper-level trough moves into the northeast, it will help strengthen a potent surface low moving up the coast. Since we are so early in the winter season, the water temperatures off the Georgia and Florida coasts are still warm, so the storm will pull plenty of warm air up with it. A pounding onshore wind will advect these warm temperatures into the coastal areas, resulting in temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Models are showing 925 mb (about 1500 feet) winds between 60 and 90 knots, which will likely translate into sustained surface winds somewhere between 30 and 40 knots with higher gusts (models are in agreement for winds at 925 mb, but vary at the surface). It would not surprise me to see a wind gust or two approaching hurricane strength (64 kts/74 mph) in some of the more exposed areas.

Forecast Surface Temps – Weds at 1 PM EST 

 

Forecast 925 mb Wind/Heights – Weds at 1 PM EST

In addition to the warm air, the storm will also pull a lot of tropical moisture up with it. Dewpoints will be in the 50s, and may approach 60 in some areas. With so much moisture in place, all areas will see at least an inch of rain. There will be widespread 2-3 inch rain totals across much of the northeast, as well as some isolated higher totals.

Forecast Dewpoints – Weds at 1 PM EST

Part II: The Cold

As with any mid-latitude storm system, there is a cold side of the storm, too. The cold air and moisture will align inland to bring wintry precipitation to the Appalachians, but the storm’s dry slot will be situated over the coastal areas when the cold air moves in. A few snow flurries are certainly possible in these areas, but widespread wintry precipitation at the coast appears unlikely.

Forecast Temperature – Thurs at 1 PM EST 

 

Forecast Snow Depth – Thurs at 1 PM EST

The cold front will cross the coastline sometime Thursday afternoon. Temperatures behind the front will for the most part be in the 20s and 30s, with some inland areas dipping down into the teens. Friday will be cold up and down the east coast, but temperatures will start to moderate over the weekend.

So to summarize, Wednesday will be a wind and rain event at the coast, with snow falling in the Appalachians. Precipitation will end on Wednesday night and be followed by the passage of a cold front on Thursday. Friday will be cold but dry before temperatures begin to rebound over the weekend. Stay tuned for more information over the next few days, as things can change quickly with these storms.

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