As expected, the upper-level steering currents have pushed Henri back to the east. It looks like the GFS (American) model was right all along. Its consistency and history of being right with Henri is why have been saying over the past three days that Henri will track east of the center of the National Hurricane Center‘s cones.

I still expect Henri to make a left hand turn while it comes ashore, as an upper-level low tries to sling shot the hurricane into Ontario. However, as we discussed yesterday, it will quickly run into a road block from a strong high pressure over Québec, briefly stalling out before being ejected across Northern New England and up into the Canadian Maritimes.

Current Watches and Warnings

The watches and warnings for Henri remain unchanged since yesterday. Hurricane Warnings remain in effect from

• The Massachusetts/Rhode Island State Line to New Haven, CT
• Block Island
• Port Jefferson, NY to the west end of Fire Island, NY

Likewise, Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect from

• Chatham, MA to the Massachusetts/Rhode Island State Line
• Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket
• New Haven, CT to Port Jefferson, NY, including all of New York City
• The west end of Fire Island, NY to Point Pleasant, NJ

Storm Threats and the Timing of Each

With Henri’s imminent landfall in southern New England, we are going to shift a bit from discussing exactly where the eye will come ashore to the timing of the threats Henri will bring to the region.

Wind

Because Henri is expected to weaken so rapidly as it starts interacting with the land in southern New England, most places along the south coast will likely see the strongest winds before the storm makes landfall. Even if you remove the effect of the land, Henri is over cool waters, and will be weakening as it approaches the coast.

This timing of the strongest winds is especially true for the eastern half of the storm, primarily from Narragansett Bay to Cape Cod and the Islands. Because Henri has been pushed back tot he east, those locations will likely see stronger winds than were predicted just yesterday. Wind gusts in excess of 50 knots are all but certain, except possibly for the outer portions of Cape Cod. The potential is there to see gusts to 70 knots, but it’s far from a guarantee.

The one exception is in the area immediately around the location that the eye of Henri makes landfall. The eye is expected to pass near Block Island and the far eastern tip of Long Island before coming ashore near the Connecticut/Rhode Island state line.

Storm Surge

Because winds are out of the south (onshore) in the eastern half of the storm, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts will bear the brunt of the storm surge. West of Henri’s eye, winds will be out of the north (offshore), with the exception of the north coast of Long Island. However, Long Island Sound is so small compared to the open Atlantic Ocean, storm surge effects on the north shore of Long Island will be less than points further east.

To determine which locations will see the greatest impact from the storm surge, you simply need to look at where the window for the strongest winds overlaps with the timing of high tide. You’ll find the lowest impacts where the strongest winds overlap with low tide, which occurs about 6 hours before and after each high tide. Also, don’t forget that locations closer to the eye tend to see greater impacts than locations on the edge of Henri.

What Does This Table Mean?

Thankfully, there is not one location that really jumps out at me as being much higher risk for storm surge. High tide in most spots in both Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay will fall at the beginning of that window of maximum winds, which will help limit the impact of the storm surge. Hyannis is far enough out in the outer part of Henri’s circulation that lower wind speeds will help offset the fact that high tide falls at the end of window of maximum winds. Finally, the Connecticut locations will see most likely see offshore winds. New London may see a brief period of onshore winds this morning, but they will quickly shift as Henri approaches. I would expect to see 3 to 5 foot storm surge in all of the above locations.

Inland Flooding

Based on model guidance and early radar returns, the majority of the rain is in the western Half of Henri. As a result, the highest risk for inland flooding will be in Connecticut, western Massachusetts, southeastern New York, and northern New Jersey. Depending on where Henri stalls out to make its turn to the east, southern Vermont could be at a higher risk for flooding as well. The rest of New England is by no means out of the woods, but is at much lower risk given the sharp gradient in forecast rainfall totals. Remember, if you see flooding, Turn Around, Don’t Drown!

Power Outages

Widespread power outages should be expected across most of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Long Island. Downed trees are the #1 cause of power outages in storms like this. New England has had a lot of rain in recent weeks. As a result, the soil is quite saturated, making it easier for Henri to uproot trees. If you see downed power lines, don’t go anywhere near them! Back away and call the electric company.

Be prepared to be without power for a while if you do lose it. We’re talking days here, not hours. But thankfully, barring any unforeseen catastrophes, it shouldn’t be weeks, either, despite some of the reports you may have heard on the news. Further north, it would not surprise me at all to see isolated power outages across parts of Vermont, New Hampshire, and southern Maine.

Conclusion

Hurricane Henri has arrived in southern New England. By now, you should be hunkered down and sheltering in place until the storm passes. Henri will likely be the most significant tropical cyclone to impact southern New England since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

Once Henri makes landfall, it will rapidly weaken. It is expected to be a tropical depression by 2 AM EDT Monday, and will be just a remnant low by midday. However, that should not be taken lightly. Just because the wind diminishes, it does not mean the threat for flooding has dissipated, too. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Be smart, stay safe, and enjoy the ride.

The post Hurricane Henri in New England: Sunday Morning Outlook appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Big Picture Overview

The primary steering currents that are driving Henri have strengthened since yesterday’s discussion. The low has set up over West Virginia and continues to dig to the south and east. Similarly, the high pressure has firmly established itself over Québec.

Because air moves from areas of high pressure to areas of low, the low pressure system over West Virginia will try to suck Henri into it. You can see the effect in the upper-level steering currents, which the green arrows mark in the plot above. As a result, that low has been responsible for the drastic westward shift in Henri’s forecast track over the past 48 hours or so.

Unfortunately, it’s not as simple as Henri getting sucked into the upper-level steering currents and getting flung up into Ontario. Remember that big ridge of high pressure over Québec? That acts like a roadblock, preventing Henri from moving north and northwest once it makes landfall in southern New England. Furthermore, as the low pressure expands to the south and east as it strengthens, it will actually push Henri back to the east as it tries to pull the hurricane into it.

So what’s the end result? As Henri gets pulled into the low, it will screech to a halt once it hits the blocking effect from the high. As the low pressure system over West Virginia move east, it will eventually grab hold of Henri and eject it out over eastern Massachusetts and up into the Gulf of Maine. If you’ve looked at the 5 AM EDT outlook from the Hurricane Center this morning, that’s why there’s such a big kink in the track. We’ll come back to this shortly.

Current Watches and Warnings for Henri in New England

As of 11 AM EDT, Hurricane Warnings are now in effect from

• The Massachusetts/Rhode Island State Line to New Haven, CT
• Block Island
• Port Jefferson, NY to the west end of Fire Island, NY

Likewise, Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect from

• Chatham, MA to the Massachusetts/Rhode Island State Line
• Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket
• New Haven, CT to Port Jefferson, NY, including all of New York City
• The west end of Fire Island, NY to Point Pleasant, NJ

Storm Surge Warnings are also in effect for the entire south coast of New England and Long Island as Henri approaches. While the surge will not be catastrophic, it will likely flood low-lying coastal areas with 3 to 5 foot storm surge. If you live in an area that often floods, I would expect it to flood as Henri comes ashore. Please be aware there will likely be very dangerous rip currents in the warning area as well.

Model Overview

Models are finally converging on a solution after a lot of uncertainty over the past 48 hours. Remember, don’t focus on one particular outcome. Instead, you want to look for patterns. Where do they agree? Where do they disagree? If they disagree, why do they disagree? Are there any anomalous runs that should be immediately discounted? Models that have been consistently accurate that are in agreement are the ones you want to focus on.

The GFS (American) Model

The GFS has been the most stable, consistent, and accurate model over Henri’s lifecycle, so we will once again use it for the basis of our forecast. This morning’s runs remain consistent with both Friday’s and Thursday’s runs. Neither Henri’s track nor strength have changed much in the GFS runs over the past two to three days.

The ECMWF (European) Model

Over the past two or three days, the ECMWF’s strength forecast has been very much an outlier. This morning, it is finally coming into agreement with the other models. It still shows weaker wind speeds at landfall than any of the other models. However, because it is now in close agreement with the other models, we can give it much more weight when we make our official forecast.

The UKMET (United Kingdom) Model

In yesterday’s model run, the track of the UKMET was quite anomalous, tracking much further west than any of the other models. As expected, that too, has largely come back into agreement with the rest of the models this morning.

It’s also worth noting that the UKMET has Henri making landfall sooner and with slightly stronger winds than any of the other models. That’s a result of the model having Henri moving faster. In the UKMET scenario, Henri spends less time over the cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey, and thus has less time to weaken. We will need to take that into account when we make our official forecast.

The GDPS (Canadian) Model

The GDPS has been in lockstep with the GFS for days. This morning, it remains that way, bringing Henri ashore at the Connecticut/Rhode Island state line. Much like the GFS, the GDPS has been very consistent, stable, and accurate over the past few days. As a result, we can use it to make forecasts with a high degree of confidence.

Despite our confidence in the model, this individual snapshot is actually a bit misleading with regards to wind speed. You may look at this map and think, oh boy, that’s in line with the weaker winds of the ECMWF. And that’s true…to a degree. All models have Henri weakening rapidly once it makes landfall on the south coast of New England. If you look at the GDPS snapshot for six hours earlier (Sunday at 8 AM EDT), winds are much stronger.

As a result, much of southern New England and Long Island will likely experience stronger winds than the 2 PM EDT snapshot indicates as the eye of Henri approaches landfall. Additionally, a small uptick in Henri’s forward speed means that it could come ashore with much stronger winds.

Model Summary for Henri in Southern New England

This morning’s model runs are in close agreement with each other. After all of the uncertainty of the past few days, it’s about as good of an agreement as we can ask for. In our official forecast, we’ll be able to give each model close to equal weight and make our forecast with a high degree of confidence.

Our Official Forecast for the Impact of Henri in New England

With the models now aligning with each other, our forecast should be pretty easy to make. However, there is one parameter that I think we can discount. Based on over a decade of experience with working with mathematical models, my meteorological intuition is telling me that there is basically no way that Henri will have 90 mph winds at landfall like the UKMET says. I don’t want to discount its prediction fully, but we’ll give much less weight to it.

Additionally, because Henri is expected to weaken so rapidly once it makes landfall, the greatest coastal wind impacts will likely be felt prior to landfall. This is particularly true for areas in the eastern half of the storm…Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, I’m looking at you here. Flooding will remain a threat until either Henri weakens sufficiently or it exits the area.

Post-Landfall

Henri will continue to be pulled into the upper-level low that currently sits over West Virginia as it approaches landfall. Interestingly, the moment that the sling-shot effect (when a mid-latitude low grabs hold of a hurricane and flings it north) occurs will be at the same time as Henri runs into the road block from the strong high over Québec.

As a result, you’ll see Henri make a sharp left (westward) turn right after landfall, which is from the low trying to fling Henri up into Ontario. It will almost immediately run into the roadblock from the high over Québec and temporarily stall out over northern Connecticut and/or western Massachusetts. As the upper-level low moves east, it will push Henri east with it, eventually sling-shotting it across southern New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts and up into the Canadian Maritimes.

The National Hurricane Center Forecast

Our forecast remains largely in agreement with the National Hurricane Center. However, from model analysis and my meteorological intuition, I believe that Henri will track slightly east of the center of the official Hurricane Center cone. While I don’t think landfall in western Rhode Island is the most likely outcome at this time, it’s certainly possible. It’s not a major difference, but it certainly could make for an interesting ride on Block Island much of the Rhode Island coast if it verifies.

Conclusion

The picture is certainly coming into focus as Henri approaches Southern New England. It remains a flip of a coin whether Henri will be a tropical storm or a hurricane when it makes landfall, but you will likely see hurricane-force wind gusts across much of southern New England. If you’re in the path of Henri, please stay safe and enjoy the ride. Please let me know if you have any questions, and stay tuned for tomorrow morning’s update.

The post Hurricane Henri in New England: Saturday Morning Outlook appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

• Hotels
• Public Restaurants
• Restaurants
• Stores

During my last few days in Norman, the strangest feeling set in. I have driven this route a gazillion and a half times over the past decade. Yet I felt like I was just standing at the edge of the map about to drive off into the unknown. It’s just one of those weird things pandemic life does to you.

Arkansas: Did Someone Say Air Conditioning?

As I crossed the border from Oklahoma into Arkansas, a weird sense of relief washed over me. With a couple brief exceptions, I will be in states with mask mandates for the rest of the trip. In addition, I could finally put over 2,000 kilometers (1,200 mi) of Interstate 40 behind me. It felt so good to be out on the back roads and away from the semi trucks on the Interstate.

Even Mother Nature decided to throw us a bone. It felt quite deserving after the rather icy greeting she offered in New Mexico, which sent wind chills plunging to -35°F (-37°C). On the contrary, she provided blue skies and warm sunshine for the drive across northeastern Arkansas on US-67.

It didn’t take long before I actually started to feel hot. What a welcome change this was from those icy polar winds ripping down the Oklahoma prairie. Afternoon temperatures climbed to nearly 80°F (27°C). It instantly transported me back to all of those wonderful road trip memories of summers past. It was the last thing I expected on this trip, but I had to turn on the air conditioning to cool down. I was still very much dressed for winter.

Better enjoy it while it lasts, as an old foe has another rude surprise waiting in the wings.

A Meteorological Miscalculation at a Kentucky Campground

I crossed the state line from Tennessee into Kentucky right at sunset. It was still another 7 or so hour drive to reach my overnight stopover at a campground in eastern Kentucky. The drive was largely uneventful. I ran into a few light rain showers passing through Lexington. It was otherwise dry, with temperatures hovering around 60°F (16°C).

Even Without the Weather Factor, This was not a Normal Camping Trip

For those of you who are unfamiliar with some of my photography adventures, I have camped out in the truck plenty of times before. This was far from my first rodeo. However, there were a few distinct differences.

• I normally sleep in the truck bed because you can fit an air mattress or camping pad and a sleeping bag back there very comfortably. There was so much stuff in the back this trip that I was forced to sleep in the cab.
• I’m used camping in the dry, arid climates out west in the summertime. That doesn’t exactly describe eastern Kentucky in February.

Once again, I managed to fall victim to a musing misfortune of a meteorological miscalculation. Sigh.

The Weather Seemed Nice Enough

After a careful analysis of the weather models, I had concluded that the Polar Vortex had cleared out of the area. Nighttime temperatures would be plenty warm for comfortable camping, dipping only into the 50s F (10s C). In fact, in the summertime, I had camped in much colder temperatures in some of the higher elevations out west. I made reservations at the campground prior to leaving Oklahoma.

One exit west of the campground, I pulled off the freeway for fuel shortly before 1 AM. I couldn’t believe how perfect the weather was for camping. The low-level clouds were starting to break up, and you could feel the humidity dropping. The temperature sat at 58°F (14°C). You didn’t even have to put a jacket on to venture outside and pump the gas. With my weather analysis seemingly confirmed, I was really looking forward to stretching my legs and having a cowboy shower and a change of clothes at the campsite.

The Fatal Flaw in a Seemingly Sound Strategy

The second I exited the freeway to drive the couple of miles to the campground, I realized I had made a critical error in my weather analysis. While I nailed my forecast, I had failed to realize or account for the fact that this campground was about 3,000 feet straight up the side of a mountain. The Polar Vortex had cleared out of the surface layer, but it still raged up above.

Once Again, the Polar Vortex Bites Hard

I immediately found myself on a very narrow and winding road through a heavily wooded forest. Moisture hung in the air, dripping off trees and hitting my windshield like raindrops. Before even reaching a hill, the temperature had dropped to 45°F (7°C).

Things truly turned bizarre once I started up the mountain. Keep in mind, it’s after one o’clock in the morning, and I had never been here before. After starting the ascent, the road became even more narrow, winding, and heavily wooded. It didn’t take long to get back in the snowpack, either. You kept your fingers crossed that you wouldn’t meet another car coming the other direction. Just passing each other would be sketchy. And that’s before taking into account the steep drop-offs on my side of the road or the high risk of black ice further up the mountain.

About a third of the way up the mountain, weird plumes of fog began to slowly waft across the road. By now, the temperature had dropped to 34°F (1°C). All of a sudden, I rounded a very sharp corner and had to put my foot to the floor slamming on the brakes.

Back in the Twilight Zone

At this point, I felt like I was back in the twilight zone. I couldn’t believe my eyes. There were trees and limbs down all over the road. They had obviously come down very recently. Thankfully, after the initial shock wore off, the road was still passable. There was ample room to tiptoe your way through the hazard. You couldn’t help but keep thinking in the back of your mind, “gee, I hope there aren’t any more trees that come down in the middle of the night and, you know, trap me in here.” I had a saw with me, but it gave me little comfort thinking about the potential marathon cutting through that many trees.

After what felt like an eternity (it was at most 15 minutes), I reached the campsite. My campsite of choice was accessible from the pavement, but out of the way enough that I wouldn’t be disturbed should anyone drive through in the middle of the night. I pulled off the pavement and onto the snowpack to park for the night. Mother Nature threw her last curveball.

A Hidden River Under the Snow

Almost instantly, the truck fell through the snowpack’s top crust and buried itself in about 6 inches of slush and soft mud. Even with four wheel drive, it struggled mightily to move just a few feet. I inched it forward as far as I could and parked it. Hopefully, with temperatures now down to 29°F (-2°C), my tracks would freeze up enough to make getting out a little easier. Yes, it was a bit of a gamble, but it was one I was more than willing to take. Then it began to lightly rain. So much for stretching my legs and having a cowboy shower. Hard to believe that less than 12 hours ago, it was 80 degrees and I had the air conditioning on.

Unfortunately, I couldn’t go to sleep just yet. I still had to move some gear from the back seat to the truck bed so I could recline the seat. To add insult to injury, my heavy boots were in the truck bed, leaving me with just lightweight sneakers to take on the mud pit. I gingerly stepped out onto the crust of the snowpack, hoping that my feet wouldn’t go through it like my tires had.

Much to my amazement, the snowpack held, but I know that one misstep and I’d be ankle deep in mud. The snowpack still needed to be tested carrying the extra weight of the gear I had to move. I came very close to breaking through a few times stepping over the area where the tires had already gone through, but I got the gear moved, and could finally recline the seat and doze off.

While I Never Felt in any Sort of Danger, the Scenery was Straight Out of the Beginning of Every Horror Movie

I drifted in and out of sleep until I fully awoke just after 3 AM to pale moonlight shining through the window. I rolled over and looked out. The rain had stopped, and skies had begun to clear. A bright full moon shone through the silhouetted bare trees swaying back and forth in the icy wind. There was not a sound to be heard, just the hum of the wind blowing through the trees. A heavy chill had settled into the truck, as the wintry mountain air had slowly sucked the heat out of the cab. I started the truck and turned the heater on.

As I waited for the cab to warm back up, I watched the trees sway back and forth in the pale moonlight. Even though the campground was well-known and as safe as safe could be, it was completely and utterly deserted. I was the only one there. It was hard to shake that one nagging thought that kept prodding the back of your mind: I’m pretty sure this is how all horror movies start.

After about 10 or 15 minutes, the truck had warmed back up. I shut off the engine and tried to go back to sleep. However, you can’t unthink the thoughts about horror movies. You try to block them out as best you can, but the only sleep you can drift off into is a restless one. I managed to doze until about 4:15 AM. At that point I knew that the odds of getting back to sleep were pretty slim.

Backtracking Out of the Campground

Now comes the hard part: getting out. As I got out to move everything back into driving mode, I was relieved to see that the freezing temperatures had worked their magic and hardened up the snowpack. While it make moving the gear around much easier, backing the truck out of the campsite was a much different story.

Even with four-wheel drive, you need to be very gentle on the throttle to get a vehicle moving and keep it in control on snow and ice. The last thing you want to do is spin the tires and wind up in the ditch. I put the truck in reverse and very slowly started to depress the accelerator. The truck didn’t budge. The wheels had partially frozen in place.

There’s a Right Way and Wrong Way to Free Yourself

Thankfully, all you need is a little extra gas to break the wheels free. However, there is a right way and wrong way to do it. Give it too much throttle and the truck will go shooting across the road and into the ditch on the other side. Don’t give it enough and it won’t break free.

The secret to pulling this off successfully is to use low four wheel drive. Low four wheel drive sends extra power and torque to the wheels, at the cost of speed. You can’t drive much faster than about 20 mph. This is exactly what we want to prevent us from flying across the road when the wheels break free.

In low four-wheel drive, the wheels broke free right away and the truck walked right back up onto the road. It was a bit tricky finding the pavement under all the snow and ice, but I managed to do so without incident. It was slow-going navigating down the steep, narrow, winding mountain roads and back around all of the downed trees, black ice, and fog. I was back on the freeway before I knew it.

Making a Fool of Myself in New Jersey After 40 Plus Straight Hours in the Car

I originally planned to spend the night at our family farmhouse in New Jersey instead of the campground. The house has no electricity or running water, so you’d still very much be camping. It has a spectacular fire place and plenty of room to spread out and stretch out.

However, a monster nor’easter struck the northeast and mid-Atlantic shortly before my trip. It buried New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania under nearly 4 feet of snow. With the property completely snowed-in, I had to make other arrangements.

Even though I couldn’t spend the night there, it was the perfect place to stop and have lunch. More importantly, it was a safe place to stretch my legs after 40 some odd straight hours in the car. With the exception of quick stops to get gas, I hadn’t gotten out of the truck since I left Norman, Oklahoma the previous day.

As Graceful as a Baby Giraffe

If you’ve ever seen a newborn giraffe try to get up and walk around, that was me on the street in front of the farmhouse. My legs had all but turned to rubber. But it felt so good to be out of the truck and moving around.

I had been in the truck for about the same amount of time it would have taken to fly from Los Angeles to Bangkok and back. Interestingly, it felt both like I had been driving non-stop for days and like I had only been driving for about 5 minutes since I left Norman. That’s far from the only instance that Covid has warped the sense of time.

Unfortunately, it also warped my sense of time for how long I had stopped. By the time it felt like I had finally stopped to decompress, I looked at the clock. Much to my dismay, over 2 hours had passed since I arrived at the farmhouse. It was after 3:30 PM. There was no way I would make it through New York City before rush hour.

The Final Leg

I begrudgingly got back in the truck to drive the last segment from New Jersey to Massachusetts. When we would take family trips to see relatives in New Jersey when I was a kid, it felt like you were driving half way around the world. At the end of this pandemic odyssey, the timing felt more like driving down the street to go to the grocery store.

Thankfully, the COVID-19 pandemic still kept a significant segment of the New York workforce remote. Traffic on the New York Thruway flowed smoothly, looking much more like mid-day than rush hour. I hit a few brief slowdowns on the Merritt Parkway once I got into Connecticut. Other than that, you could travel at the speed limit on both the Merritt and on Interstate 95.

One Last Hurdle

Massachusetts is one of the states that is pretty strict about people coming in from out of state. Everyone coming from a high-risk state must fill out a travel affidavit stating that you have not been knowingly exposed to COVID-19 or have any symptoms. At the time I arrived, the only state that was not considered high risk was Hawaii. You must then quarantine for 10 days upon arrival.

Interestingly, they ask that you submit the travel form before you arrive in Massachusetts. There is no penalty if you don’t, though. I meant to fill it out during my stop in New Jersey, but got distracted laughing at myself over the baby giraffe incident. However, I had been treating state lines like crossing international borders. It dawned on me as I crossed into Rhode Island that I hadn’t yet filled out the travel form. I filled it out a rest area just inside the Rhode Island state line before continuing on to my final destination in Massachusetts.

Mandatory Quarantine

I was lucky enough to have a friend who was in Florida for the winter. They offered their summer house to do my quarantine. It was a relief not worrying about exposing my mom and dad to anything I picked up on the road. The quarantine went smoothly. I got caught up on a lot of work. However, I did find myself playing peek-a-boo with a pigeon on more than one occasion.

Up Next

Go behind the scenes next week and look at the data, modeling, and strategy sessions that kept me safe on this unique and memorable journey. All that, and much more right here next Friday at 9 AM Pacific Time. See you then.

Top Image: A Beautiful Morning Drive in the Appalachians
Morgantown, West Virginia – 25 February, 2021

The post Pioneering Peril, Part 2: Pandemic Polar Vortex Camping in Kentucky appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Last week, we looked at 15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Western United States. If you’re on the east coast, it’s your turn today. Let’s look at 15 COVID-friendly adventures in the Eastern United States that are proven to boost your mental health and refresh your soul.

A Word of Caution About Adventuring During the Pandemic

Just because we’re talking about fun adventures today does not mean it’s a green light to let loose. Don’t forget we’re still in the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic. Please consider the following precautions to ensure your safety during the COVID crisis.

• Stay close to home and stick to day trips.
• Only travel with people you live with. This is not the time to invite all of your friends.
• Obey all state and local COVID-19 restrictions, ordinances, and mandates.
• Pack food, drinks, and hand sanitizer so you don’t need to interact with the public.
• Don’t forget to be prepared for non-COVID hazards. Snow and ice can negatively impact many of these adventures.
• Always check the weather forecast and road conditions when traveling during the winter.

Now, let’s kick those Covid blues and put your mental health on the fast track to happiness.

1. Historic Route 66 – Illinois, Missouri, and Oklahoma

Is there anything more American than getting your kicks on Route 66? The eastern half of Historic Route 66 runs connects Chicago and Oklahoma City. The route runs along what is currently Interstates 44 and 55. However, you’ll find a much more authentic experience if you get off the freeway and drive the original road.

You’ll find a wide diversity of landscapes along the way. From the rolling hills of eastern Oklahoma to Missouri’s Ozark Mountains to the agricultural plains in Illinois, there is no shortage of great photo opportunities.

2. Tamiami Trail – Florida

Prior to the construction of Interstate 75, the Tamiami Trail was the only route connecting Tampa and Miami. You’ll find the best photo ops as the Tamiami Trail winds its way through the guts of the Everglades. Find a safe spot to pull off on the side of the road. Sit, watch, and enjoy the solitude. You’ll see alligators, birds, fish, lizards, and much more.

In addition, the many parks, preserves, and wildlife refuges on the west coast of the Florida peninsula make for excellent side trips. Just a few of my favorites include the JN “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel Island, Big Cypress National Preserve east of Naples, and and the Terra Ceia State Park and Aquatic Preserve north of Bradenton. On the Miami side, stop off at the Everglades and Francis S. Taylor Wildlife Refuges for additional nature and landscape photo ops.

3. Newfound Gap Road – North Carolina and Tennessee

Newfound Gap Road runs through the heart of Great Smoky Mountains National Park. It connects Cherokee, North Carolina with Gatlinburg, Tennessee. Pull off at any of the turnouts to find classic mountain views, lush forest scenery, and refreshing rivers. The best views are at the summit of Newfound Gap, which sits right on the state line. Be aware though, it can be crowded there.

To get away from the crowds, consider hiking a short ways down the Appalachian Trail. In addition to a bit more solace, you’ll get views that most others won’t see. You can also find more great views along the road to Clingman’s Dome. However, Clingman’s Dome can be busy and the road often closes in the winter due to snow and ice.

Please check road conditions before going in the winter. The road is narrow, with many sharp curves and steep switchbacks. The summit of Newfound Gap is over 6,000 feet (1,830 meters) above sea level and often closes in the winter due to snow and ice. If you’re not comfortable driving in snow and ice, I recommend avoiding this route.

4. Kancamagus Highway – New Hampshire

The Kancamagus Highway runs through the heart of the White Mountain National Forest in the shadow of Mt. Washington. While northern New England is best known for its spectacular fall colors, the Kancamagus Highway offers beautiful photo ops year round.

While you’re in the area, I also highly recommend driving north up Interstate 93 to Franconia. You’ll be treated to breathtaking views of the White Mountains. On the east end of the Kancamagus, stop and photograph any of the many covered bridges in the Conway area.

For the more adventurous, take a drive up Mount Washington during the warmer months. At the summit, you’ll see where some of the most extreme weather in the world is observed and studied. Scientists measured a wind gust of 231 mph (372 km/h) at the summit of Mt. Washington on 12 April, 1934. That record stood as the strongest wind gust ever measured on earth until the 3 May, 1999 tornado in Oklahoma. Today, it still stands as the strongest non-tornadic wind gust ever recorded.

5. Great River Road – Arkansas and Tennessee

Why risk exposing yourself to COVID-19 on one of the Mississippi River cruises when you can drive it instead? While you can drive along the river for its entire length, the best scenery is in Tennessee and Arkansas, with southern Missouri close behind it. Travel at your own pace, stop for some great photo ops, and find a quiet place for a nice picnic lunch along the river.

6. Discovery Route – South Carolina

Come out and explore everything South Carolina has to offer. The Discovery Route runs from Walhalla, in the far northwest, to Charleston. Along the way, you’ll be presented with photo ops of mountains, oceans, agriculture, rivers, and more. Stop at any of the state’s roadside fruit stands for a treat you won’t soon forget. If you’re there in August or September, South Carolina’s peaches are absolutely to die for.

7. Old King’s Highway – Massachusetts

Get an in-depth and hands-on introduction to Cape Cod’s culture, food, and scenery. Starting at the Sagamore Bridge, follow US-6 to its eastern terminus in Provincetown. Get off and explore historic towns on Massachusetts Highway 6A. Pack a picnic and have lunch at one of the Cape’s many world-famous beaches. As an added bonus, Cape Cod is headed into its offseason right now, so you’ll avoid the summer crowds.

The highlight of the drive is the Cape Cod National Seashore. Stop off anywhere on the eastern shores of Cape Cod. You’ll find incredible aerial and beach-level photo ops of the seashore. Taking a calming walk on the beach and enjoying the fresh sea air is a great temporary escape from reality, too.

8. Delaware Water Gap – New Jersey and Pennsylvania

The Delaware Water Gap is a breathtaking gap in the Appalachians where Interstate 80 crosses the Delaware River. While the area right around I-80 is popular due to its ease of access, the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area extends north most of the way to the New York state line. With so much room to spread out, there is no shortage of spots to tuck yourself away from crowds.

Taking a hike, going for a swim, and enjoying a relaxing afternoon on the boat are just a few of the many outdoor activities available at the Delaware Water Gap. Just choose your side of the river carefully, as river crossings are few and far between. Most of the recreation area is on the New Jersey side of the river, but the main north-south highway is on the Pennsylvania side.

9. Blue Ridge Parkway – Virginia and North Carolina

The Blue Ridge Parkway is one of the most scenic and well-known drives east of the Mississippi River. Stretching from Waynesboro, Virginia to Cherokee, North Carolina, there are new scenic vistas around every turn. Explore side expeditions including hiking trails, waterfalls, mountain biking, wildflowers, camping and much more.

If that’s not enough, there are national parks at each end of the Blue Ridge Parkway. At its northern terminus, take in the magnificent sights at Shenandoah National Park. At the south end, explore the majestic mountains of Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

10. Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway – Maine

Sitting in western Maine just a stone’s throw from both New Hampshire and Quebec, the Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway is a true hidden gem. While the scenery is gorgeous any time of year, it is truly exceptional during the fall colors season. Make sure you stop at the Height of Land Overlook and take in the breathtaking views of Lake Mooselookmeguntic.

If you have additional time, find additional scenic scenery on Old Canada Road (US-201). Running from Skowhegan to the Canadian border, there are ample photo ops featuring mountains, rivers, forests, and more. Keep in mind that the US-Canada border is currently closed to all non-essential travel.

11. Panhandle Scenic Drive – Florida

If you’re looking for a relaxing beach getaway, Florida’s Panhandle Scenic Drive is for you. Take in the ocean, beaches, bays, and bayous as you make your way along US-98 between Apalachicola and the Alabama State Line. Once you get away from the population centers, you’ll pass through marshes, forests, and wildlife refuges.

Don’t be afraid to get off the beaten path a bit. For an even more unique escape, explore some of these areas in a boat. The entire coast of Florida is dotted with small islands that are only accessible by boat. What better way to boost your mental health than spending a day in the fresh salty air, away from civilization.

12. Talimena Scenic Byway – Oklahoma and Arkansas

Stretching across the top of a mountain ridge at an elevation of 2,000 to 3,000 feet, the Talimena Scenic Drive is hands down the best place in Oklahoma to view fall foliage. Listed as one of America’s National Scenic Byways, the 100 kilometer (60 mile) drive winds through the beautiful Ouachita National Forest and the majestic Kiamichi Mountains, connecting Talihina, Oklahoma to Mena, Arkansas.

If you’ve ever driven the Blue Ridge Parkway, you’ll be right at home on the Talimena Scenic Byway. There are stunning aerial views of mountains, valleys, forests, and farmland around every corner. Find a quiet spot to pull off, have a picnic lunch, breathe the fresh mountain air, and watch the world go by. Your mental health will thank you.

Note: The Talimena Scenic Drive is not maintained in the winter. If there are concerns about snow and ice, please consider driving US-59 through the valley instead.

13. Merritt Parkway – Connecticut

You may think it’s hard to partake in COVID-friendly adventures in such a densely populated area that is so close to New York City. Advertised as the Gateway to New England, the Merritt Parkway was the first limited access divided highway in Connecticut. It is one of the oldest scenic parkways in the United States.

Even though there are not a lot of places to tuck yourself away from the crowds, it’s still a great scenic adventure that will give you a great escape from the hustle and bustle of the city.

14. Historic National Road – Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio

The Historic National Road is a bit of a journey back in time through the Heartland of America. While you can choose the modern route on Interstate 70, why not break the monotony of the freeway? Much like Route 66, you can still drive the original Historic National Road, US-40, today.

The Historic National Road stretches from St. Louis nearly all the way to Pittsburgh. You’ll get plenty of photo ops as you pass through forests, plains, farmland, small towns, big cities, and much more.

15. Green Mountains Scenic Tour – Vermont and New Hampshire

There’s something special about the tranquility and quaintness of northern New England. That’s especially true in Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom. Start at the Canadian Border in Derby Line, Vermont and wind your way south along US-5. You’ll pass through the heart of northern New England’s rich history and culture.

You’ll have a choice when you get to St. Johnsbury, Vermont. Continue south along US-5 to take in the scenery right along the Vermont side of the Connecticut River. Alternatively, get on Interstate 93, hop across the river, and explore New Hampshire’s beautiful White Mountains and national forests. Rest assured that regardless of which option you choose, you’ll return home feeling relaxed and refreshed.

Note: While the US-Canada border is currently closed, I highly recommend that you go check out the national parks near Magog and Sherbrooke, Québec once the COVID crisis ends.

Conclusion

During the COVID crisis, it’s more important than ever to take care of your mental health. Getting out in the sunshine and fresh air to take in beautiful scenery is proven to be one of the best ways not only to boost your mental health, but make yourself feel good overall. Recharge your batteries and refresh your soul. Take proper COVID precautions, and you should have a fun and safe adventure.

Top Photo: A Sunny Winter Day at Woodneck Beach
Falmouth, Massachusetts – January, 2015

The post 15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Eastern United States appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I only ran the models out until early May because we need to focus on what’s going to happen in the next two to three weeks, not what’s going to be happening several months in the future. Additionally, model forecasts get less accurate the further into the future you go. This run assumes current social distancing restrictions remain in place through mid-May and does not account for any additional surges or waves of the virus that may occur later this spring, this summer, or this fall.

Don’t forget, you can always get more information about the model and view detailed case data on my COVID-19 Dashboard. Additionally, I will write up a separate post about the mathematics, equations, and methodologies used in my coronavirus model, which I’m hoping to get posted in the next day or two. Stay tuned for additional discussions about each hot zone as more data comes in.

Alberta

Arizona

British Columbia

California

Connecticut

Florida

Georgia

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

Oklahoma

Ontario

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Québec

Rhode Island

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

U.S. Virgin Islands

Washington (State)

After several requests, I updated this post on 16 April, 2020 to include additional states and provinces, bringing the total to 26 plots instead of 24.

Top Photo: Palo Duro Canyon State Park – Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post A Look at the Best-Fit COVID-19 Model Curves for 24 Key States and Provinces appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Behind the front, winds are light out of the northwest at 5-15 knots for nearly all coastal areas between New Jersey and Florida. Temperatures across interior New England down through the mid-Atlantic States are mainly in the upper 30’s and low 40’s. At Noon EST, the freezing line was located approximately along a line extending from Buffalo to Pittsburgh to near Beckley, WV (in the SE part of the state). It will be snowing along and west of that line. As the freezing line moves east, the precipitation will be pulling out of those areas, so coastal areas will see very little snow, if any at all. Areas in the Appalachians back into parts of the Ohio Valley, however could see as much as 6 inches of snow, with some higher totals near the Canadian Border in New York.

Barring something really crazy happening (which I am not anticipating at this point), this will be my last update on this storm, as I will be signing off for the Thanksgiving holiday and will not be back until next week. If you want any further details, the model data from a couple days ago still looks pretty much on track for this storm. Once this storm exits your area, calm and sunny weather will come in behind it. This weekend looks pretty nice for nearly the entire country. Have a great Thanksgiving and be safe if you are traveling.

The post Quick Update: Thanksgiving East Coast Storm appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Part I: Rain and Wind

As a vigorous upper-level trough moves into the northeast, it will help strengthen a potent surface low moving up the coast. Since we are so early in the winter season, the water temperatures off the Georgia and Florida coasts are still warm, so the storm will pull plenty of warm air up with it. A pounding onshore wind will advect these warm temperatures into the coastal areas, resulting in temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Models are showing 925 mb (about 1500 feet) winds between 60 and 90 knots, which will likely translate into sustained surface winds somewhere between 30 and 40 knots with higher gusts (models are in agreement for winds at 925 mb, but vary at the surface). It would not surprise me to see a wind gust or two approaching hurricane strength (64 kts/74 mph) in some of the more exposed areas.

Forecast Surface Temps – Weds at 1 PM EST 

 

Forecast 925 mb Wind/Heights – Weds at 1 PM EST

In addition to the warm air, the storm will also pull a lot of tropical moisture up with it. Dewpoints will be in the 50s, and may approach 60 in some areas. With so much moisture in place, all areas will see at least an inch of rain. There will be widespread 2-3 inch rain totals across much of the northeast, as well as some isolated higher totals.

Forecast Dewpoints – Weds at 1 PM EST

Part II: The Cold

As with any mid-latitude storm system, there is a cold side of the storm, too. The cold air and moisture will align inland to bring wintry precipitation to the Appalachians, but the storm’s dry slot will be situated over the coastal areas when the cold air moves in. A few snow flurries are certainly possible in these areas, but widespread wintry precipitation at the coast appears unlikely.

Forecast Temperature – Thurs at 1 PM EST 

 

Forecast Snow Depth – Thurs at 1 PM EST

The cold front will cross the coastline sometime Thursday afternoon. Temperatures behind the front will for the most part be in the 20s and 30s, with some inland areas dipping down into the teens. Friday will be cold up and down the east coast, but temperatures will start to moderate over the weekend.

So to summarize, Wednesday will be a wind and rain event at the coast, with snow falling in the Appalachians. Precipitation will end on Wednesday night and be followed by the passage of a cold front on Thursday. Friday will be cold but dry before temperatures begin to rebound over the weekend. Stay tuned for more information over the next few days, as things can change quickly with these storms.

The post Coastal Storm Getting Set to Impact the East Coast appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.