Well, it looks like dire warnings that medical experts have been issuing for months are starting to become reality across parts of the US and Canada. Preliminary data and coronavirus model output are confirming that cooler weather is driving people indoors. As a result, cases are rising in many states […]
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Tip: Check out my COVID-19 model predictions and performance on my COVID-19 Dashboard. You can ask anyone I know, and they’ll all tell you the exact same thing: I know very little about anything that has to do with the medical field and absolutely nothing about epidemiology and disease. So […]
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Many of you know that I did a lot of storm chasing during my time studying meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. When you chase storms, you will inevitably get yourself into some unnerving situations, and you learn pretty quickly that the best time to panic is never. That is […]
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It was all over the news yesterday: a key coronavirus model’s projected COVID-19 death counts by early August nearly doubled overnight after seeing a just-as-rapid decline in projected deaths about three weeks ago. What’s with that? A lot of people on TV seem to want to point the finger at […]
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My COVID-19 model is actually giving me results. Let’s open the hood and look at some of the mathematics, methodologies, and logic I use to make my projections. I wrote the model in Python. It has a simple graphical user interface that runs in a web browser. The SIR Model: […]
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Below you will find the latest state and provincial projections from the 15 April model run of my COVID-19 model for the US and Canada. I have included states and provinces that are in “hot” areas in both countries, as well as places where I have friends, family, and other […]
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From a mathematical standpoint, figuring out when a country, state, province, county, or city has hit the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic is not an exact science. Instead, it relies on pattern recognition in the data. We’re going to look at data from several countries and states to identify examples […]
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Here is a full look at the outputs from our revised SIR model. I have included plots from hot spots in both the US and Canada as well as cities where I have friends, family, and loved ones. I can run these simulations for just about any city in the […]
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The COVID-19 pandemic has been absolutely fascinating to watch from a mathematical modeling standpoint. As the pandemic starts taking a stranglehold on the United States this week, let’s have a look at a few different COVID-19 models, including my SIR model. Can we gauge any semblance of what’s going to […]
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During one of the New England Patriots’ recent runs to a Super Bowl victory, head coach Bill Belichick put it pretty well: “Do Your Job.” Everybody in the organization, from the owners all the way down to the team’s interns, had a job to do in order for the team […]
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Well, it looks like the coronavirus has arrived in full-force here in the United States. COVID-19 will likely cause some disruptions to day-to-day life. Being a math person, the outbreak has piqued my interest in modeling and simulating some possible scenarios for the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States. Before […]
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I recently identified a rather unfortunate bug that left part of my weather station’s QA/QC algorithm redundant. Fixing it treated the symptom, but not the cause of the problem. Today, we’re going to look at what is causing the temperature sensor on one of my Raspberry Pi’s to seemingly randomly […]
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