As I began planning my COVID-19 cross-country road trip last fall, my goal was to avoid the worst of winter across the midwest and northeast. Little did I know that the North Pole would come down and so kindly greet me as I crossed Tornado Alley. The Polar Vortex shattered all kinds of records and left several states – most notably Texas – under a significant emergency.

What is the Polar Vortex?

The Polar Vortex is a large area of very cold air that circulates around both the North and South Poles in the wintertime. Under normal conditions, the stability of the atmosphere keeps the Polar Vortex locked around the poles.

However, certain triggers high above the Earth can cause the Polar Vortex to rapidly destabilize and plunge southward (northward in the Southern Hemisphere) into the mid-latitudes. One particularly powerful trigger occurred in late January, 2021.

What Triggers the Polar Vortex to Destabilize?

To understand how the Polar Vortex behaves, we must travel about 20 to 50 km above the earth’s surface, well above where any weather happens or any airplanes fly. This part of the atmosphere is known as the stratosphere, and contains the far outer ranges of where weather balloons can travel.

Temperatures in the stratosphere are frigid. In the past 40 years, meteorologists have measured temperatures as low as -96°C (-141°F) in the stratosphere. Those cold temperatures are what holds the Polar Vortex in place above the poles.

Armed with that knowledge, you can probably deduce what causes the Polar Vortex to destabilize: a sudden and significant warming of the stratosphere. That’s exactly what happened in January, 2021. In less than 24 hours, the stratosphere warmed by 45°C, or 81°F. It was one of the most extreme stratospheric temperature swings ever recorded.

The January, 2021 destabilization was so powerful that it caused the Polar Vortex to completely fracture in half. One half plunged into the central and eastern parts of the United States and Canada. The other half dove south into Siberia. Temperatures in Yakutsk, Russia dropped to a bone-chattering -58°C (-73°F).

Have We Seen a Polar Vortex Like This Before?

You don’t have to go back very far to find a similar meteorological setup. In January, 2015, meteorologists observed a similar warming of the stratosphere above the North Pole. Shortly thereafter, the Polar Vortex split, sending parts of the US, Canada, and Russia into one of their coldest and snowiest winters ever.

One particularly interesting phenomenon is how the strong Polar Vortex makes the east coast of both the US and Canada so vulnerable to major snowstorms. Indeed, two blizzards crippled New England on 27 January and 15 February, 2015. That was only the beginning of a true snowmageddon winter.

Between the two storms, many locations in southeast New England received between 6 and 8 feet of snow. Boston was one of many cities that ran out of places to dump their plowed snow. Even once summer arrived, you’d still see some snow piles driving around. There was so much snow piled so high it took that long to melt. Not surprisingly, we all got a pretty bad case of cabin fever that winter.

Thankfully, 2021 did not suffer the same fate.

A Beautiful Day Across Central New Mexico

If you hadn’t looked at the weather before hand, you would have had no idea what lay ahead with the Polar Vortex. Temperatures were unseasonably warm as I made my way across the high deserts of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico.

As I descended into Albuquerque, the mercury topped 70°F (21°C). Even with strong winds, it made for very pleasant driving. However, once I climbed back out of the valley, things really began to change. Thick mid-level clouds replaced the warm sun and blue skies. You definitely had that feeling of “something crazy is about to happen” in the air.

Santa Rosa, New Mexico: Running Head-On into a Freight Train of Cold Air

If you’ve ever driven Interstate 40 across New Mexico, you know that it’s largely a vast emptiness of open desert. Aside from the occasional blink-and-you-miss-it town, you’re at the mercy of Mother Nature.

As I got further east of Albuquerque, that layer of mid-level clouds got progressively thicker, darker, and lower. Despite the ominous outlook, temperatures remained quite pleasant, hovering around 65°F (18°C). As I approached the town of Santa Rosa, New Mexico, things took a dramatic turn.

When I lived in Oklahoma as a meteorology student, I saw my fair share of wild weather. Whether it was EF-5 tornadoes, ferocious wildfires, thundersleet, a quakenado, or massive hail, it was nothing like what I saw punching through the Polar Vortex. Just when I thought I had seen it all, Mother Nature threw me something new. Wrap your head around this temperature drop.

For a different perspective, here is that same data on a time-series graph. Click on the graph to enlarge it.

And to think, this was just the tip of the iceberg.

Entering the Freezing Fog Twilight Zone in Texas

Between storm chasing, road trips, and photography adventures, I’ve driven across the Texas panhandle more times than I can remember. My favorite part of the drive is looking out at the open prairie. You can see forever, and really gives you a sense of freedom being on the open road.

What a contrast this trip turned out to be! As a result of the Polar Vortex invasion, we were treated to one of the rarest, and surprisingly, most dangerous weather phenomena in Texas: freezing fog.

What is Freezing Fog?

Freezing fog is no different than regular fog, with one distinct difference. Water droplets in freezing fog are supercooled, meaning that they are below freezing, but remain in liquid form.

Why do they remain as a liquid if they’re below freezing? Water molecules freeze much more efficiently when they are in contact with other particles versus being pure water. These particles can include sand, dust, minerals in tap water, and objects such as trees and vehicles.

Fog forms when water vapor condenses out of the air. Those fog droplets are pure water, and therefore freeze less efficiently.

Why is Freezing Fog so Dangerous?

Whenever water remains in a supercooled state, it poses an enormous risk to both vehicles and airplanes. Remember that we just reviewed how water freezes much more efficiently when in contact with other particles than when it is pure water?

When a supercooled water droplet comes into contact with something other than pure water, it instantly freezes. While freezing fog coming into contact with trees and grasses is largely harmless, it’s a much different story when it freezes on roads, overpasses, and your vehicle. Black ice is dangerous enough to begin with. It’s even more so in places like Texas that are not used to seeing it.

How Does Freezing Fog Form in a Hot, Arid Climate Like West Texas?

Warm air can hold much more moisture than cold air. Most of that moisture is in the air as water vapor. We measure it with either the dewpoint or the relative humidity.

When air cannot hold any more moisture, it reaches saturation. Any more moisture that gets added after that condenses out either as clouds or precipitation. There are two ways to reach saturation.

• Add moisture to the environment. You see this when the bathroom fogs up as you take a shower.
• Lower the temperature of the environment. There is no better example of this than when you see your breath on a cold day. Your warm breath has more moisture than the ambient cold air can hold, so it condenses out as a fog.

The powerful cold front I had punched through in eastern New Mexico had swept across the Texas Panhandle only a few hours earlier. Even in an arid environment like West Texas, the temperature dropped so extremely and rapidly that the air could not hold what little moisture it had. As a result, the excess moisture condensed into a freezing fog.

It was almost as if you could see Mother Nature’s breath.

Enter the Polar Vortex Twilight Zone

Being used to crossing the Texas panhandle in the summertime made this experience even more unique. The freezing fog shrouded everything in an eerie haze reminiscent of some kind of twilight zone. In addition, the Polar Vortex had been in place just long enough to start coating the landscape with a visible layer of ice. The setting late afternoon sun made that haze even eerier.

The deeper I got into Texas, the longer the bitter cold Polar Vortex air had been entrenched in place. Temperatures continued to plummet. Not surprisingly, the fog got thicker the further east I got. The setting sun slowly swallowed you into that twilight zone of darkness.

Things got even weirder as I crossed into Oklahoma.

Oklahoma? More Like Snow-klahoma!

How many times have you seen something bad happen and thought, “that won’t happen here”? I’ve done it more times than I care to admit, including this trip. Once I crossed the state line into Oklahoma, it didn’t take long for me to realize the full seriousness and severity of the Polar Vortex. At a gas station in Elk City, I noticed that both the windshield cleaner and the hand sanitizer had frozen solid as I fought 50 mph (80 km/h) winds and -11°F (-24°C) wind chills to fill my gas tank.

The Polar Vortex Flexes Its Muscles

Less than 48 hours after arriving in Norman, the first of back-to-back snowstorms hit the Southern Plains. After just a few days of wild weather we had shattered all kinds of winter weather records.

Most notably, the National Weather Service measured the coldest temperatures ever recorded in the State of Oklahoma. The only Oklahoma saw colder temperatures occurred in the late 1800s, when it was still the Indian Territory.

Thankfully, the snow didn’t stick around for very long. Temperatures rapidly warmed as the Polar Vortex pulled out of the area. In true Oklahoma fashion, we were walking around in shorts and t-shirts less than a week later as temperatures soared to 74°F (23°C).

Having Fun with Physics During a Power Outage in Sub-Zero Polar Vortex Temperatures

It often feels daunting when you lose power during a storm. Initial panic sets in that much more when the power goes out when it’s -5°F (-21°C) out and blowing over 30 mph (50 km/h). That’s the exact situation we found ourselves in the middle of the heaviest snow during my stay in Oklahoma.

I awoke in the middle of the night. As I reached for my phone to check the time, I noticed that it felt chilly in the house. I figured the thermostat had been turned down at night, and I didn’t think much of it. It was about 5:15 AM, so I decided to check the weather on my phone to see how cold it had gotten.

Much to my surprise, my phone could not connect to the internet. Not only was the WiFi out, I had no cell service, either. Being in the middle of a city of 125,000 people, something was very wrong.

I sat up and noticed that all of the night lights in the hallway were flickering and and off. I kept thinking, was I back in the twilight zone I was in driving here? At that point, I knew it was only a matter of time before the power company pulled the plug.

Less than 5 minutes later, the power went out for good. All you could hear was the wind, the snow, and the transformers blowing up nearby. At that point, there wasn’t much I could do, so I rolled over and went back to sleep.

Physics and Thermodynamics: An Alternate Source of Entertainment

If you’ve ever studied physics, chemistry, or thermodynamics, you’ve probably heard of the ideal gas law. While it has its limitations, the law is a good approximation of many gases, including air, under many conditions. Mathematically, it is defined as:

pV = nRT

where

• p is the pressure
• V is the volume
• n is the amount of gas
• R is the ideal gas constant
• T is the temperature

Now, here’s where the fun starts. I slept on an air mattress while I was in Norman. Because the power was out, the heat in the house did not work, so the house cooled off. In terms of the ideal gas law, we know that R is already constant. Inside the sealed air mattress, both the amount of air (n) and the volume (V) are also constant. We can reduce the ideal gas law to a simple relationship.

p ~ T

In layman’s terms, that equation just means that as temperature changes, the pressure will change in the same manner, and vice versa. We were now about 3 hours into the power outage, and the house was really starting to feel cold. As the temperature continued to drop, I could feel the air mattress getting softer and softer until I could feel my butt hit the floor underneath the mattress.

Here’s the best part. Shortly after 8 AM, the power came back on. It was cold in the house, so I decided to stay in my nice warm sleeping bag until the heat could work its magic. As the house warmed back up, the air mattress reinflated as the pressure inside increased. Before I knew it, the ideal gas law had lifted my backside up off the floor, and the house had returned to its normal temperature.

Up Next

As memorable as my stopover in Oklahoma has been, this is not the end of my dance with the Polar Vortex and Old Man Winter. Next week, we’ll continue east and see if it really was that wise of a decision to go camping in the mountains in Kentucky in February…in the middle of an ice storm. All that and more right here next Friday at 9 AM Pacific Time. See you then.

Top Photo: Heavy Snow Falls During the Polar Vortex
Norman, Oklahoma – February, 2021

The post Pioneering Peril: A Pandemic Polar Vortex in Tornado Alley appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Lessons From My Road Trip to Oregon Last Summer

This trip is actually not my first foray out of Arizona during the COVID-19 pandemic. Last summer, I drove to Oregon to get a reprieve from Arizona’s summer COVID-19 spike and its relentless summer heat. In 2020, we had over 50 days of high temperatures above 110°F (44°C), which shattered the old record of 33. The Oregon trip was eye-popping, making me realize the complete callousness and carelessness of Arizona’s attitude toward the pandemic.

What a Difference Crossing the State Line Makes

On the Oregon road trip, my first gas stop was in Kingman, Arizona. I almost always stop in Kingman on trips that take me to California and Nevada. Kingman has always been safe and welcoming, and I have never once felt any hint of sketchiness or being unsafe.

I followed the same rules on the Oregon trip as I did this road trip. As a result, I wore N-95 masks every gas stop because I did not want to bring COVID-19 to Oregon with me. As I gassed up in Kingman, I noticed that a crowd had started to gather around me. They did not look happy, either. By the time I finished pumping the gas, the crowd was circling me much in the same way a group of lions closes in on a wounded gazelle. Thankfully, I left without incident.

Who Knew What to Expect Crossing into Nevada

Fast forward a few hours. I’m north of Las Vegas, and it’s time for my second gas stop. As I pulled into the gas station, every pump had a handwritten sign on it. That sign said in both English and Spanish, “No Mask, No Service”. I thought okay, feeling much less sketched out now.

Shortly after I started fueling, a car pulled into the other side of the pump. I was cautiously curious to see what would happen, since I had received death threats over masks in similar situations in Arizona. A middle-aged couple got out of the car, and they were both masked. This was the exact moment it started setting in just how completely batshit crazy Arizona was.

The lady in the other car started pumping gas, and the man started walking towards the convenience store. I noticed that he turned around after he got about half way to the convenience store. As he approached the car, he said “Honey, can you hand me my mask? I can’t go in without it.” That completely blew my mind. I was no more than 50 or 60 miles (80 or 100 km) from the Arizona border. What alternate universe have I ported into?

Oregon Took COVID-19 Seriously, Too

Even in very rural areas, both Oregon and Nevada took things seriously. Everyone wore masks in public, and you could see COVID-19 precautions in place everywhere. People kept their distance and largely stayed out of indoor public places. I felt things were much more controlled in Oregon and Nevada, and felt safer as a result.

All right, back to the present day.

Arizona

Things on this road trip were going to be different than the Oregon trip. So much has changed in just the six months since I drove to Oregon. Most notably, we now have several highly-effective vaccines available, as well as new antiviral treatments.

You don’t have to be on the freeway for long to realize how the pandemic has halted recreational travel. Unlike my summer road trip, my route this trip largely confined me to the Interstate system, whereas I only spent about 45 minutes of the 22-hour drive to Oregon on the Interstate.

You’ll quickly notice that once you’re out of the city, traffic on the freeway is almost exclusively semi trucks and big rigs. This is especially prevalent once you get on a major cross-country artery such as Interstate 40. It’s wintertime, and the pandemic is keeping everybody at home.

Even Mother Nature came through to help get the trip off to a good start. She treated us to spectacular morning driving conditions east of Flagstaff.

New Mexico

Entering New Mexico, I expected a very similar experience to the one I had in Nevada last summer. New Mexico did not disappoint. Right at the state line, they greet you with several signs.

• New Mexicans take COVID-19 seriously
• Masks are required statewide
• People arriving from out of state must quarantine
• If you break the rules, they will fine you.

I suspect that the reason New Mexico keeps reminding you of the rules is that if you exclude the international border, it’s surrounded on two of its remaining three sides by states that routinely flout COVID-19 restrictions and mock the pandemic. Additionally, both east-west arteries through New Mexico – Interstate 40 and Interstate 10 – directly connect those neighboring states that have made a mockery of the pandemic.

Even once you get away from the state line, you will be constantly reminded of the ongoing pandemic. Electronic signs in front of businesses instructed people to mask up, keep your distance, and stay safe. Interestingly, I also felt a sense of optimism in the air as businesses looked forward to adding capacity as COVID-19 cases continue to decline.

Ironically, the only time I really felt sketchy on the entire cross-country road trip occurred in one of the states I expected to feel the safest. The town of Tucumcari sits right on Interstate 40 about 30 miles west of the Texas state line. As I pulled into a gas station in town, I noticed that all of the vehicles there had Texas license plates. It was basically a repeat of what happened in Kingman last summer. It’s unnerving as hell having the angry crowd gathering around you, but once again, I was very grateful to get in and out without incident.

A Sneak Preview: An Icy Reception from the North Pole in Santa Rosa

As I passed through Santa Rosa, New Mexico, I punched through the strongest Polar Vortex to hit the US in recent memory. It brought some of the most wild weather I have ever seen on a road trip.

• Temperature dropped 45°F in 15 minutes
• Freezing fog leads into the twilight zone in the Texas Panhandle
• Wind chills dropped to -35°F (-37°C).
• The State of Oklahoma measured its coldest temperature ever.

Tune in next week for the full story, including pictures.

Texas

The Lone Star State continues to be in complete denial about the events of 2020. While I did not stop in Texas, you can see plenty from the highway as you pass through.

If you were dropped into the Texas panhandle without context, you would have no idea there was a once-in-a-century pandemic going on. The “Twilight Zone” effect from the freezing fog and the polar vortex only made this visit to Texas even weirder.

• Bars, restaurants, and stores in Amarillo were absolutely packed.
• There was not a mask, an effort to stay socially distanced, or any other attempts to contain COVID-19 to be found.
• You’ll see all kinds of political pro-Trump, anti-pandemic, and stolen election signs on the side of the highway.

The weather only continued to deteriorate as I got into Oklahoma.

Western Oklahoma

I always feel like I’m home when I cross the state line from Texas into Oklahoma. It was my route home after so many memorable storm chases, after all. While this road trip did feel a bit like storm chasing, tornadoes were the last thing on my mind as I headed back to my old stomping grounds. While I had prepared for cold weather, I was most certainly not ready for the bitter temperatures that welcomed me back to Oklahoma.

Shortly after dusk, I pulled off the freeway for one of my final gas stops of the day in Elk City, Oklahoma. When you exit onto the eastbound I-40 business loop, you have to travel for several miles through the open prairie before you reach Elk City proper. The gas station I had chosen was west of Elk City, in the open prairie.

Pulling in, I glanced up at the thermometer in the truck. The outside temperature had dropped to 14°F (-10°C). I thought to myself, no big deal, these temperatures are nothing new to me. It doesn’t take that long to pump a tank of gas. I put on my heavy coat, winter hat, and warm gloves. When I opened the door to step out, it completely took my breath away.

There’s a Reason the Chorus of the Musical Oklahoma! is so Famous

If you’ve ever driven across western Oklahoma, you’ll know that it is flat and open. When the wind blows, there is nothing to knock it down. No trees, no hills, no barriers. Nothing. In fact, the terrain slopes ever so slightly downhill as you go from west to east. When the wind has a westerly component, gravity can actually help accelerate the wind as it comes down the prairie.

What I had failed to realize while I was driving was that the polar wind was whipping down the Oklahoma prairie at about 50 mph (80 km/h). While I was dressed appropriately for the cold, I was not dressed for that kind of wind. The conditions in Elk City that evening combined to yield a wind chill of -11°F (-24°C). To add insult to injury, I had parked so the filler nozzle was on the upwind side of the truck, so there was nowhere to hide from the wind.

This was the exact moment it hit me just how severe this Polar Vortex would be. As I clamored back into the truck to warm up, barely able to feel my face, fingers, and toes, I happened to glance down. Both the windshield cleaner and hand sanitizer the gas station had put out were frozen solid. Not slushy or syrupy. Solid.

By the time I got to my friend’s house in Norman, temperatures had dropped into the single digits and bottomed out around -5°F (-21°C) the next morning. And that was only the beginning.

Up Next

Tune in next time to hear the full details of my tango with the Polar Vortex. Temperatures were much more reminiscent of northern Alaska in February than the southern plains. We’ll enter the twilight zone in Texas. In Oklahoma, experience power outages as wind chills dropped to -35°F (-37°C) while getting buried under a foot of snow.

Then, in true Oklahoma fashion, less than a week later, we were walking around in t-shirts and shorts as temperatures soared to 75°F (24°C). See you next week.

Top Photo: The Morning Sun Illuminates Palo Duro Canyon
Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post COVID-19 Road Trip Journal: Wild Weather in the Wild West appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

1. If Texas were its own country, it would be the 40th largest in the world.

At over 695,000 square kilometers, Texas would fall between Zambia and Myanmar if you ranked countries by surface area. Additionally, Texas is bigger than Ukraine, France, Thailand, and Spain.

2. Contrary to the belief of a startling amount of people, Texas is not the largest state in the United States.

When you look at a map of the United States, it’s hard not to notice Texas. And while Texas is the largest state in the lower 48, it’s not the largest state in the US. That designation belongs to Alaska. At over 1.7 million square kilometers, Alaska would stretch from San Francisco to Jacksonville if you overlaid it across the lower 48.

3. The State of Rhode Island fits inside of Texas 174 times.

It’s always fun to see how many times the smallest state in the US fits into one of its largest. Figuring it out is nothing more than a simple math problem.

Texas covers an area of 695,662 square kilometers. Rhode Island is 4,001 square kilometers. To get the number of times Rhode Island, which we’ll call n, fits into Texas, we just divide Texas by Rhode Island.

n = TX/RI
n = 695,662 / 4,001 = 173.872
n = 174

4. It is 1,000 km from Beaumont, Texas to Jacksonville, Florida. It’s also 1,000 km from El Paso, Texas to San Diego, California.

Yes, you read that right. You can drive only about 1,000 km (620 mi) from each end of Texas and reach both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Though I must say, if you’re looking for the beach, it’s much easier just to stay in Texas. The Texas Gulf Coast is home to some of the best beaches in America.

And what’s even crazier? Beaumont and El Paso are closer to the east and west coasts, respectively, than they are to each other. As the crow flies, Beaumont and El Paso are about 1,200 km (745 mi) apart.

5. There are almost 900 miles of Interstate 10 in Texas. If you started in Greece and drove that distance, you’d cross 7 countries.

Interstate 10 is a major cross-country freeway running from Jacksonville, Florida to Los Angeles, California. About one third of it is in Texas. From Beaumont to El Paso, Interstate 10 runs for 1,420 km (880 mi) across Texas. You’ll pass through Houston and San Antonio as you transition from the swamps and bayous of the Gulf Coast to the Chihuahuan Desert.

For an international perspective, let’s start in Patras, Greece and drive north. After 1,420 km (880 mi), you will have passed through seven countries before winding up in northern Italy.

1. Greece
2. Albania
3. Montenegro
4. Bosnia and Herzegovina
5. Croatia
6. Slovenia
7. Italy

To put Texas’ size into a better perspective, let’s stick closer to home. Start in York, Maine and drive south on Interstate 95. After driving for about 1,420 km or 880 mi, you will be in Dillon, South Carolina and will have crossed 13 states.

6. Texas is a border state. The geographical center of the United States is in Lebanon, Kansas. Just 50 km (30 mi) of the Oklahoma Panhandle separates Texas and Kansas.

In fact, back in the early 1800’s Texas and Kansas bordered each other. At the time, that border actually formed the US-Mexico border. Texas entered the Union as a slave state in 1845, but US law at the time prohibited slavery north of the 36°30′ parallel, which currently forms the state line between the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.

As a result, Texas ceded the strip of land between the 36°30′ parallel and the Kansas border. At the time, it was not assigned to any state or territory, so it became known as “No Man’s Land”. It existed under several different names before officially becoming the panhandle of the Oklahoma Territory in 1891.

7. The Paseo del Norte is the 2nd largest transborder conurbation on the US-Mexico border and one of the largest binational metroplexes in the world.

Also known as The Borderplex, the Paseo del Norte is comprised of El Paso, Texas and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, México. It is the largest binational and bilingual work force in the Western Hemisphere.

Despite the recent divisiveness along the US-Mexico border, El Paso and Juárez continue to function as a single community. People routinely cross the border in both directions every day to go to work, attend school, see the doctor, and much more. There are no two communities on the US-Mexico border that are as united as El Paso and Juárez.

Any guess as to what the largest transborder conurbation on the US-Mexico border is? That distinction belongs to San Diego and Tijuana. The San Ysidro Port of Entry separating the two cities is the largest and busiest international border crossing in the world.

8. El Paso is closer to Cheyenne, Wyoming than Houston, Texas

El Paso sits in a unique location. The southern terminus of Interstate 25 is about 75 km (45 mi) northwest of downtown El Paso in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Continue north on I-25 through New Mexico and Colorado to Cheyenne, Wyoming. You will have driven 1,184 km (735 mi).

Alternatively, head east on Interstate 10 from El Paso. By the time you reach downtown Houston, you will have driven 1,202 km (750 mi). Did we mention Texas is big?

9. Brownsville, Texas is closer to El Naranjo, Guatemala than Dalhart, Texas.

Brownsville sits on the Gulf Coast across the border from Matamoros, Tamaulipas, México. It’s about as far south as you can go in Texas. Dalhart is located in the far northwest corner of the Texas Panhandle, about 75 km (45 mi) south of Boise City, Oklahoma.

Because of Mexico’s unique shape, Guatemala is actually closer to Brownsville than Dalhart is. As the crow flies, El Naranjo, Guatemala is 1,186 km (736 mi) from Brownsville, while Dalhart is 1,227 km (762 mi) from Brownsville. It’s hard to wrap your head around, but you read that right. Brownsville is closer to a town two countries away than it is to a town in the same state. There are not too many cities or towns in the world that can make that claim.

If that wasn’t enough to blow your mind about Brownsville, wrap your head around this.

10. If you travel from Brownsville, Texas to Kerrick, Texas, you will be almost half way to Canada.

I know. There’s no way this can possibly true, right? As we said earlier, Texas is big. The small town of Kerrick sits right on the state line between the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. As the crow flies, you’ll travel 1,270 km (785 mi) from Brownsville to Kerrick. Once you’re in Kerrick, it’s only 1,390 km (863 mi) north to the Canadian border. You’ll cross the border into North Portal, Saskatchewan.

Conclusion

I hope that if there’s one thing you learned today, it’s that Texas is enormous and its geography is full of quirks and oddities. Because of that, it’s also an incredibly diverse place to explore. Visit swamps, beaches, farmland, prairies, canyons, mountains, and deserts without having to leave the state.

If that’s not enough, Mexico is right next door if you’re looking to dip your toe into the world of international adventuring. Alternatively, head north to Oklahoma to experience some of the best storm chasing in the world. Though I must say from experience, chasing storms in the Texas Panhandle is second to none. I hope you enjoyed our excursion into Texas geography. Stay tuned for more Weird Geography coming soon.

Top Photo: Texas Welcome Sign on Interstate 40 as you enter from Oklahoma
Benonine, Texas – August, 2017

The post Weird Geography: 10 Mind Blowing Facts About Texas appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

With all international travel and most domestic travel on hold, look closer to home for happiness. Interestingly, some of the photography adventures I have taken in years past check all of the boxes for Covid safety. What a perfect way to boost your mental health! Today, let’s have a look at fifteen destinations in the western United States to get outside and explore. In addition, you can treat your mental health away from the crowds and from the safety of your Covid bubble.

A Word of Caution About Adventuring During COVID

Just because we’re talking about fun adventures today does not mean it’s a green light to let loose. Stay close to home and stick to day trips. This is not the appropriate time to be pin-balling all over the country. Don’t invite all of your friends to come with you, either. Instead, stick to small groups of people you live with, who are already in your Covid bubble. Pack plenty of food, drinks, and sanitizer so you don’t need to stop anywhere.

Please obey all local Covid restrictions, ordinances, and mandates. I know it feels like so many of them have been politicized, but they are there for a reason. Many state and national parks have their own restrictions as well. You will likely be fined if you violate restrictions on state or federal land.

Finally, don’t forget to plan for any hazards you would normally encounter during non-COVID times. Many of these destinations can close unexpectedly due to snow and ice in the winter. Speaking of which, know the tire chain requirements for any states you’ll be traveling through. Carry chains with you and know how to chain up yourself if you’re expecting to be in snow country. If you have any doubts, it’s probably best to stay home.

Now, let’s kick those Covid blues and put your mental health on the fast track to happiness.

1. Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument – Arizona

The Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument sits on the US-Mexico border at the south end of Arizona’s Highway 85. It is the only place in the United States to see the rare organ pipe cactus. While the cactus itself is fairly common south of the border, even the mild winters in Arizona’s low deserts have proven to be too cold for it.

The national monument is also home to an incredible diversity of rare species of flora, fauna, and surprisingly, fish. The Quitobaquito Oasis is home to species of fish that cannot be found anywhere else in the world. The rarest of all is the Sonoyta pupfish. Named for the Mexican town that sits across the border from the monument, Quitobaquito is the only known place in the world that they inhabit.

Note: The access roads to Quitobaquito and Dos Lomitas Ranch are currently closed due to construction of new border fencing.

You’ll find the best photo ops along the Ajo Mountain drive. The 33 km (21 mi) guided tour starts across Highway 85 from the Visitors Center. Along the way, you’ll stop and see the best of what the Sonoran Desert has to offer. If you’re looking to get off the beaten path a little more, consider the North Puerto Blanco Drive. It starts from behind the Visitors Center, but beware that you’ll need a high clearance 4×4 to tackle it.

2. Pacific Coast Highway – Oregon and California

Is there any better feeling than the freedom of a drive up the coast? The fresh ocean air is bound to give anyone’s mental health a shot in the arm. In the age of Covid, keep your stops away from towns and population centers. Find a quiet pull-out at the top of a bluff, and enjoy that nice picnic lunch that you brought from home as you watch the world go by.

3. Burr Trail – Utah

The Burr Trail winds over 120 km (76 mi) through the guts of Utah’s breathtaking backcountry. Starting in the town of Boulder, you’ll pass through the Grand Staircase – Escalante National Monument, Capitol Reef National Park, and the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area.

Drive through beautiful canyons, across stunning mesas, and descend the infamous Burr Trail Switchbacks, which drop close to 1,000 feet elevation in just 1 mile. At a 13% grade on a narrow dirt track, the switchbacks satisfy the hunger of even the most adventurous. You’ll quickly see why it’s rated one of the most scenic drives in Utah and the ultimate exercise in social distancing.

4. Palo Duro Canyon – Texas

Known as the Grand Canyon’s Little Brother, Palo Duro Canyon is the second largest canyon in the United States. Meaning “strong wood” in Spanish, Palo Duro Canyon offers outdoor activities for everyone, including hiking, mountain biking, and horseback riding. The entrance to the state park is a short drive south of Amarillo on Interstate 27. And unlike the Grand Canyon, you can actually drive the bottom of Palo Duro Canyon in a normal passenger car.

You’ll get plenty of great photo opportunities from both the rim and the bottom of the canyon. I recommend arriving close to either sunrise or sunset in order to take advantage of soft, low light on the canyon’s walls. Snap some pictures from the lookouts near the Visitors’ Center before starting your descent into the canyon.

5. Great Salt Plains – Oklahoma

Take a journey back in time at Oklahoma’s Great Salt Plains. The salt pan is a remnant of prehistoric times, when a vast ocean covered what is now Oklahoma. In the summertime, you can venture out on the salt flats and dig for selenite crystals. The Great Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge is the only place in the world where you’ll find hourglass-shaped selenite crystals.

Fast-forward to today, and you’ll find a state park, a national wildlife refuge, and a large lake. The Great Salt Plains are a great spot to go hiking, swimming, and boating. However, my favorite activity is to take the quiet and tranquil scenic drive through the salt marshes off of Highway 11. You’ll truly be at one with your camera and with nature. If you’re there at the right time of year, Oklahoma is a popular stop along a major bald eagle migration route, too.

6. Apache Trail – Arizona

Take breathtaking drive through the rugged terrain of Arizona’s Superstition Mountains. Originally built as a stagecoach road in the early 20th century, the Apache Trail was named after the Apache Indians who used this same route to cross the mountains. Today, it is Arizona’s State Route 88, an easy day trip from Phoenix.

Much of the Apache Trail is unpaved, but passable in a standard passenger car. There are several steep, narrow hills and one-lane bridges. My best advice to you is that if you don’t like heights, don’t look down. When you reach the end of the trail, you’ll be rewarded with spectacular views of Theodore Roosevelt Lake.

7. Death Valley’s Badwater Backcountry – California

You don’t appreciate exactly how extreme an environment Death Valley is until you travel through its backcountry. Head west out of Pahrump, Nevada, and follow California Highways 178, 127, and 190. You’ll wind up in the heart of Death Valley National Park in the aptly-named town of Furnace Creek, California. Furnace Creek measured the world-record high temperature of 134°F (57°C) on 10 July, 1913. You’ll also pass through Badwater Basin, which marks the lowest point in the United States, at 86 meters (282 ft) below sea level.

Before setting out, please know what you’re getting yourself into. You will be driving through some of the most remote, desolate backcountry in the world. There will be times that you’re more than 120 km (75 mi) from the nearest town.

Gas up before you leave Pahrump, as it could be over 320 km (200 mi) before you see another gas station. Stay hydrated, as dehydration and heat exhaustion are possible even in the winter. And if you break down? You better know how to fix it or have a satellite phone. There is no cell service inside Death Valley National Park, and seeing other cars in the backcountry is extremely rare.

8. White Sands National Park – New Mexico

Home to the world’s largest gypsum dunefield, White Sands is a true natural wonder. Sitting just outside of Alamogordo, New Mexico, it’s one of the only National Parks that is very slowly moving downwind.

Are you wondering what exactly gypsum is? It looks like salt, and feels like sand, but is in fact neither of them. Gypsum is a soft mineral composed mainly of calcium sulfate. In fact, the “sand” at White Sands National Park is soluble in water. If you put a handful of it into a glass of water, it will dissolve.

9. Antelope Hills – Oklahoma

The Antelope Hills are a small, but important landmark in the history of both Oklahoma and the United States as a whole. In addition to marking the westernmost point settlers could claim in Oklahoma during the land rush of the 1800s, it also marked the US-Mexico border.

At the time, it separated the United States’ Indian Territory from Mexico’s Alta California territory. Alta California was mostly comprised of what is currently Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. The United States acquired the territory as part of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, which ended the Mexican-American War in 1848.

The dirt road to the Antelope Hills is passable in a standard passenger car and is generally void of other traffic. However, be aware that 18-wheelers sometimes use it as a shortcut to access a nearby oil rig, so the road can be extremely washboarded at times. If you’re in the area, I encourage you to visit the nearby Black Kettle National Grassland and the Washita Battlefield National Historic Site.

10. Lee’s Ferry and Marble Canyon – Arizona

If you’re looking to avoid crowds at the Grand Canyon, make a stop near Page at Lee’s Ferry and Marble Canyon. Sitting just outside the boundaries of Grand Canyon National Park, there is plenty of space to keep yourself socially-distanced from the few other people that may be there.

Pull up a chair on the beach and stick your feet in the water to cool off. Have a picnic, read a book, or just relax and enjoy the solitude. If you’re feeling exceptionally brave, take a swim. Lee’s Ferry is only a few miles downstream of the Glen Canyon Dam, so water temperature usually top out around 45°F (7°C), even in the dead of summer.

As you leave Lee’s Ferry, stop for a few photos at the Navajo Bridge. The foot bridge provides stunning views of Marble Canyon from 500 feet above the Colorado River. Be aware that the bridge can occasionally be crowded, though large crowds are mostly a summer phenomenon.

11. Scenic Highway 12 – Utah

Utah’s Scenic Highway 12 is probably the most spectacular drive I’ve ever taken. It’s well-deserving of its distinction as an All-American Road. You’ll see the stunning rock formations near Zion National Park, the famous hoodoos of Bryce Canyon, majestic mountains, lush forests, and much more.

If Scenic Highway 12 leaves you craving more, the highway provides easy access to Zion National Park, Bryce Canyon National Park, the Burr Trail, Capitol Reef National Park, and Utah’s Scenic Highway 95. Do you have a 4×4 and a stronger quest for adventure? Many of Utah’s famous scenic backways, including Hell’s Backbone and Hole-in-the-Rock, can be found right off of Highway 12.

12. US-395 – California

Many travel guides properly designate US-395 in California as an All-American Road Trip. Running along the base of the Sierra Nevada Mountains from Ridgecrest to Lake Tahoe, there is no shortage of beautiful scenery.

After starting on the valley floor, you’ll pass through deserts, grasslands, and pine forests as you ascend to nearly 2,500 meters (8,200 feet) elevation at Conway Summit. For more than just a driving trip, US-395 offers plenty of side excursions. Turn off and explore the Alabama Hills, Inyo or Stanislaus National Forests, or one of the roads to the many ski resorts along the way.

In the wintertime, please check the road conditions for every road you plan to explore in this area. The Sierra Nevada are notorious for their massive snowstorms, which often strike fast and hard. As a result, many roads close in the winter, and you don’t want to get cut-off or stranded.

Additionally, I also recommend you carry tire chains at all times during the winter months. California requires them for most vehicles when it snows in the Sierra. If you have any doubts about snow, consider driving US-95 as an alternate. It runs parallel to US-395 on the Nevada side of the state line at a much lower elevation. It’s not quite as scenic, but it sure beats sitting around at home.

13. Gloss Mountain State Park – Oklahoma

Don’t let the fact that it’s less than 1 square mile fool you. Gloss Mountain State Park packs a punch for its small size. Take the short hike to the top of the escarpment for spectacular 360-degree views of the surrounding prairie. It’s an incredible spot to watch the sunset. Alternatively, find a quiet spot to have a picnic, ponder your thoughts, or meditate.

When you’re done, drive the Gloss Mountain Loop. The dirt track loop is part of Oklahoma’s Great Plains Trail system. While not part of the state park, it offers a unique perspective of the surrounding area, and plenty of good photo ops. You’ll probably meet a few friendly cows along the way, too.

14. Mogollon Rim – Arizona

I can only describe the Mogollon Rim as a therapeutic escape. At nearly 8,000 feet (2,200) meters above sea level, I have always used it to escape Phoenix’s scorching summer heat. There’s something truly magical when you feel the cool summer breezes through the ponderosa pines. Using that logic, it would make a great escape from Covid life as well.

The Mogollon Rim Road, Forest Road 300, runs about 75 km (45 mi) right along the edge of the rim. It passes through the Coconino and Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests, offering an incredible diversity of viewpoints and photo ops. Find a quiet spot with a great view at one of the many turnouts along the Rim Road or head over to one of the area’s many lakes and fully immerse yourself in your escape.

Note: The Mogollon Rim Road closes for the winter after the first major snowfall and usually re-opens sometime in April.

15. Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge – Oklahoma

The Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge was one of my go-to getaways when I lived in Oklahoma. Start your day with a drive up Mt. Scott for a bird’s eye overview of the refuge. At 2,500 feet (760 meters) above sea level, the summit of Mt. Scott is the highest point in the main body of Oklahoma. From the top, you’ll get a breathtaking 360 degree view of the wildlife refuge, the Wichita Mountains, and nearby towns.

Next, make your way through the wildlife refuge on State Highway 49. Stop at any of the lakes, information stations, or pullouts. You’ll often see buffalo and longhorn cattle roaming the grasslands. There is never a shortage of wildlife for bird watchers, especially during the bald eagle migrations through Oklahoma. Additionally, keep an eye out for prairie dogs peeking out from their burrows.

If you still have some time, visit Great Plains State Park and Quartz Mountain State Park. Both are located just west of the Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge. They highlight the true diversity of the landscapes across southwestern Oklahoma. You’ll see much of the same wildlife and achieve the same rewarding escape.

Conclusion

I can’t stress enough the importance of taking care of your mental health during this Covid winter. There will be dark days, as well as times that feel hopeless. Having an outlet to give you a temporary escape from reality and put a smile back on your face is one of the best decisions you can make for yourself.

Top Photo: Gorgeous Landscapes at the Rainbow Point Overlook
Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah – May, 2017

The post 15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Western United States appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Panicking only leads to making poor decisions, which in the context of storm chasing, can lead to injury and even death. You can read about my hairiest storm chasing moments, such as the time I got caught in five and a half inch diameter hail and the time a cluster of three tornadic supercells tried to merge right on top of me and cut off my only route home. Had panic set in, the outcome may have been different. My point here is that the same concept applies with the coronavirus pandemic. No matter how good or how bad things look, the best time to panic is never.

It’s Like Having the Check Engine Light Come On in Your Car

Earlier this week, the Arizona Republic used a very apt metaphor do describe the current situation: it’s like having the check engine light come on in your car. It’s telling you something is wrong and should be investigated as soon as possible, but is certainly not a reason to pull over right away and call a tow truck. Nor is it a reason to put a piece of black tape over the light.

Let’s have a look at 5 states that have made a lot of coronavirus headlines recently: Arizona, California, Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas. All of them except for California have been setting new daily case and hospitalization records left, right, and center over the past two to three weeks. We’ll look at the current and past data, as well as what to expect over the next month or so.

How Has the COVID-19 Model Performed?

Before we begin, I want to make one final point about the COVID-19 models. No matter what you are modeling, the accuracy of the predictions diminishes significantly the further out in time you go. For example, do you know how often models that are used to make our day-to-day weather forecasts are correct when they make predictions more than about 5 to 7 days out? Less than 10% of the time. You see the same phenomenon in the coronavirus models, just with a slightly different timeframe.

My coronavirus model is run twice per week and makes two predictions for 56 states and provinces in the US and Canada:

• Case counts 2 weeks from the date of the model run
• Case counts 1 month from the date of the model run

Have any guesses as to how it’s been performing since early May?

That’s a pretty stark difference. The incorrect predictions are often pretty close, but a miss is still a miss. Also, the model has underestimated over 99% of the incorrect predictions it has made since early May. In other words, when the model was wrong, the actual case count was higher than what the model predicted, which is to be expected during a COVID-19 spike. Please keep this in mind when viewing model projections in this post. You can view the full details of how the model is performing on my COVID-19 Dashboard.

All plots and maps below contain data through Thursday, 18 June, 2020.

General Overview

Before we dive into each individual state, let’s look at a general overview of how the five states stack up against each other. Click on any plot or map to enlarge it.

First, a map showing the change in new cases over the past 14 days:

And now, the time series plots. The new daily cases are a 7-day moving average.

Arizona

Arizona continues to be one of my biggest concerns, for reasons beyond just the fact that I live there. You can pretty easily trace the spike in case back to the state’s Stay-at-Home Order expiring on May 15th. I’ll let you decide for yourself whether or not the state opened too early.

Both hospital bed use and percent of positive PCR tests (the tests that say you currently have the virus) have been setting record highs routinely over the past week and half or so. Take a look at these numbers, direct from the Arizona Department of Health Services website.

The hospitalization statistics and percentage of positive of PCR tests are they key metrics to watch not just in Arizona, but in all of the states we’re looking at today.

Now, while those numbers look grim, there are a few glimmers of hope. First, look at this chart of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day. Full disclosure, though, I have heard numerous unconfirmed reports that this chart is missing data for the past week or so, and especially for the past few days.

However, I do have reason to believe that this chart is at least partially true. Look at the charts above showing the hospital beds and ICU beds in use. While they’re certainly not leveling off, the rate of increase in bed use is slowly starting to slow down. A couple days ago, Governor Doug Ducey also gave mayors the power to require face masks in public (many cities in Arizona and Maricopa County now require masks), which will also help slow the spread of the virus and dampen the spike.

Will Arizona Become the New Epicenter?

So, what should we expect going forward? Let’s look into the crystal ball and see what the model says. Don’t forget that while I ran the model out to the first of September, the accuracy of its forecasts drops significantly after the 4th of July.

My personal prediction is that while there is potential for Arizona to become the new epicenter, I think the chances of that actually happening are pretty low. I also think with face mask mandates going into effect, the chances of having to go back into a statewide lockdown or stay at home situation are low. However, should hospitals get overwhelmed, all bets are off.

California

California is an interesting beast to tame on the COVID front, mainly due to its large size and its large population. At first glance, the chart of new cases doesn’t really show anything that jumps off the page at you. Instead, it just shows a steady increase in daily new cases over time.

What’s happening in California right now is actually a microcosm of what’s happening in the United States right now. Different parts of the state are peaking at different times as the epicenter moves around the state. Back in March and April, the San Francisco Bay Area bore the brunt of the COVID outbreak, while the epicenter has now shifted to southern California, primarily in the greater Los Angeles area. Here are the latest county-by-county data from this morning.

One very interesting observation: Los Angeles County currently has 47% of the California’s entire cases.

What is the model saying?

With the exception of LA County, I’m not too worried about California as whole right now. The spike you keep hearing about on the news is primarily contained to LA County and the surrounding areas, with smaller outbreaks happening in places like Fresno and the San Juaquin valley.

That being said, LA County is the most populated county in the US, so it must continue to be closely watched, especially if hospitals continue to be stretched. The whole Los Angeles area needs to we closely monitored. Governor Gavin Newsom just required masks to be worn in public statewide, but how much of an effect that has remains to be seen because many of California’s cities, including LA and many of its suburbs, already had local ordinances requiring them.

Looking into the crystal ball, I would expect the state’s steady increase to continue as the epicenter moves around the state, which will effectively cancel out the decrease in cases in other parts of the state. The model shows cases starting to level out once we get into July, but we’ll have to wait and see what happens. It’s shown that before for California and was wrong.

Florida

Oh, Florida. What are we going to do with you? You seem hell-bent on just putting the piece of black tape over the check engine light and continuing on your merry way. It’s been all over the news that Florida could be the next epicenter of COVID-19. However, note that all the reports and news headlines use the word “could”, not “will”. You can still avoid becoming the next epicenter.

According to the State of Florida’s own COVID-19 dashboard, only 1 of its 68 counties meet the criteria to enter the next phase of reopening. The one county that does meet those requirements is Liberty County, which sits in a rural part of the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee.

The state’s dashboard also gives each county a letter grade for how well they are social distancing. Only 4 out of 68 counties graded higher than a C-, and all 4 of those counties got a C. If you’re looking to slow the transmission rate down, that’s where I would start. For a state that has openly admitted to doctoring its data, these numbers are pretty pathetic.

Not surprisingly, cases are exploding in cities across the state.

What’s going on in Florida hospitals?

The state’s dashboard doesn’t have a whole lot of useful information about hospitalizations, but it shows that there are 1,395 available ICU beds throughout the state. I have no idea what percentage of total ICU beds that is.

Now, there is a glimmer of hope that does come with a big “but”. The number of daily new deaths in Florida is actually going down right now…

…BUT, if you look closely at the new cases plot, you will notice that the spike in cases started at Day 80, which was 16 days ago (today is Day 96). Unfortunately, when you have an increase in cases, the increase in deaths usually lags the increase in cases by two to four weeks, which means that it’s likely coming and just hasn’t gotten here yet.

If we look into the crystal ball, here is the model’s best prediction of what’s to come. Please take note that if the state and its residents continue to do nothing about the outbreak, there will be a significant COVID-19 spike with many more cases than what the model is forecasting.

Remember, Florida, it’s not too late to do something about this. Be smart, use common sense, and don’t become the next Florida Man.

Oklahoma

This is another interesting case. Oklahoma’s numbers throughout the pandemic have been lower than the rest of the country, likely due to the lack of major population centers. However, I get the feeling that if the President wasn’t having a campaign rally in Tulsa tomorrow, there would likely be very little, if any, mention of Oklahoma’s coronavirus case numbers on the national news.

Yes, it’s true that new cases have ticked up and are at record highs, and I’m not trying to downplay this, but even these record numbers of new cases are an order of magnitude less what Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas are all seeing. Case counts are currently low enough that there is very little threat to the health care system being overwhelmed.

If we break things down by county, you will find that most of the state’s cases are clustered around the two major population centers: Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

An Interesting Twist that Could Seed COVID-19 Spread

Now, tomorrow’s presidential campaign rally in Tulsa is where things start to get tricky. Tulsa County currently has the highest case count in the state (2,070 confirmed cases), which account for just under one out of every four cases in the state.

The combination of the spike in COVID-19 cases with a large indoor gathering of people coming from all over the country has the potential to be a super-spreader event and seed outbreaks in other parts of the country, but it is not going to turn Oklahoma in to a coronavirus epicenter. It’s not a sure thing that it will be a super-spreader event, either, but it certainly has the potential to be. Attendees taking proper precautions is critical to keeping the super-spreader risk as low as possible.

A model that CNN ran showed that the rally could cause up to 1,000 new cases. That alone may not sound like very much, but once people go back to the various corners of the country from where they came and spreading it to friends, family, etc., that 1,000 cases can turn into a very big number very quickly. Keep that in mind whenever you’re out in public.

So what’s in store for Oklahoma? Here’s the model run, but keep in mind that it does not account for any effects of the presidential rally in Tulsa tomorrow night. If this forecast verifies, there should not be any issues with overwhelming the health care system. Residents should take the spike in COVID-19 cases seriously and be smart about taking precautions when out in public.

Texas

The Lone Star State seemed like they were trying really hard to put the black tape over the check engine light, but finally realized that doing so was a bad idea. This week, Governor Greg Abbott gave mayors the power to require masks in public. Like Arizona, many cities in Texas now require them, which I expect will slow the spike in COVID-19 cases.

While California was a microcosm of the United States, with its epicenter moving around the state, Texas is not seeing that same phenomenon. Most of Texas’ major population centers are seeing the same uptick in cases all at once.

The one big exception to that rule is Amarillo, which saw a major outbreak at a meat processing plant back in May. The city put restrictions into place to curb that outbreak that were much more severe than the rest of the state, and it shows. The COVID-19 spike the rest of the state is experiencing is largely absent from Potter County data.

Hospital Statistics in Texas

Hospitalizations are definitely trending up in Texas, and hospitals are currently 77% full, compared to 84% full in Arizona. The hospitalization data should be watched closely over the next month to six weeks. Hopefully the mask mandates will be able to keep the hospitals from having to activate their emergency or surge plans.

The good news is that if the model prediction verifies, Texas should have a pretty good chance at preventing its healthcare system from being overwhelmed, especially once the mask mandates go into effect. The big question will be when will the daily new cases start to turn the corner on the new daily cases plot. The longer it takes, the bumpier of a ride it’s going to be.

Wrapping It All Up

Whew, that was a lot of data that we covered today. Yes, that was a lot of data we absorbed, and it certainly can look pretty bad in all five states. The good news is that even if you don’t live in any of these states, we can all do our part to slow the spike by not panicking, being smart about when and how we go out and interact in public, and using common sense. Don’t wait around for your mayor, county, or governor to issue mandates. Act now. The sooner we slow the spread and bend the curve down, the sooner we can get back to our normal lives.

Top Photo: Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona – January, 2019

The post COVID-19 Spikes in Arizona, Florida, Texas, and More: How Concerned Should We Be? appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

The US Federal Government laid out clear gating criteria each state should meet before moving to the next phase of their three-phase process reopening. My datasets and models do not track all of those gating criteria, so we will be looking at a couple of the most important guidelines:

• Documented downward trajectory of confirmed new cases over the past 14 days
• 3-Day Average of less than 5 to 7 new cases per million people
• The largest daily increase in new cases over the past 14 days must be no more than 5 to 7 new cases per million people

Look at the Actual Data to Gauge State Reopening Viability

So what exactly does a 14-day downward trajectory of confirmed new cases look like? Have a look at Montana, which is one of only about two or three states that’s even remotely close to meeting the White House’s gating criteria at the present time.

Now, what does the same plot look like for Georgia and other states that are starting to reopen businesses? Click on any image to enlarge it.

In the table below, all values are normalized per 1 million population.

One thing should jump out at you immediately: While three of the four states meet one of the gating criteria (general trend downward in new cases), Texas is the only state that’s anywhere remotely close to being able to meet the gating criteria. Even though spikes in the daily new case counts are a bit concerning, both Florida and Texas showing promising signs of trending downwards and if they keep it up, will hopefully be able to meet the gating criteria by late May or early June.

What are the Models Saying About State Reopening?

The University of Washington’s IHME model recently added a projection of when states can begin relaxing social distancing guidelines. These projections are estimated based on the gating criteria. I added the same projections to my model. Here are the earliest dates the latest runs are predicting states can begin to reopen.

So why are these dates so important? It’s quite simple actually. Using Georgia as an example, look at the projected cumulative case counts for what happens when you slightly relax social distancing restrictions before meeting the gating criteria (Georgia re-opened on April 27) vs waiting for the earliest suggested date (June 8) that the models indicate.

Interestingly, many models are already adjusting their case, hospitalization, and death counts up to account for states beginning to reopen.

The Verdict

So are states like Georgia, Texas, and others opening too early. Unfortunately, from just the small amount of data presented in this post, you can’t say for sure. I know, I know, it’s a cop-out, but there are so many additional factors that are not taken into account in this analysis, such as;

• Can the health care systems in these states handle the uptick in cases as things reopen?
• Even if businesses reopen, will people patronize them or are people still too concerned to go out?
• What about the economic destruction the virus is causing?

Here’s my two cents. Governors are going to have to tread a fine line between balancing health care concerns against the economy. Strongly favoring one will cause great harm from the other. While just relaxing social distancing restrictions even the tiniest little bit will likely lead to at least a slight increase in case counts, the goal is to strategically and gradually reopen the economy in steps so that you can keep the virus under control at the same time.

If governors who are reopening their states now can begin and maintain an economic recovery while at the same time keeping COVID-19 case and death counts down, they have not opened too early. If they have to shut down their economies down again and re-issue social distancing restrictions due to a big spike in cases, well, that’s a different story.

Top Picture: Talimena Scenic Drive – Talihina, Oklahoma – November, 2013

The post A First Look at State Reopening Strategies appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I only ran the models out until early May because we need to focus on what’s going to happen in the next two to three weeks, not what’s going to be happening several months in the future. Additionally, model forecasts get less accurate the further into the future you go. This run assumes current social distancing restrictions remain in place through mid-May and does not account for any additional surges or waves of the virus that may occur later this spring, this summer, or this fall.

Don’t forget, you can always get more information about the model and view detailed case data on my COVID-19 Dashboard. Additionally, I will write up a separate post about the mathematics, equations, and methodologies used in my coronavirus model, which I’m hoping to get posted in the next day or two. Stay tuned for additional discussions about each hot zone as more data comes in.

Alberta

Arizona

British Columbia

California

Connecticut

Florida

Georgia

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

Oklahoma

Ontario

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Québec

Rhode Island

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

U.S. Virgin Islands

Washington (State)

After several requests, I updated this post on 16 April, 2020 to include additional states and provinces, bringing the total to 26 plots instead of 24.

Top Photo: Palo Duro Canyon State Park – Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post A Look at the Best-Fit COVID-19 Model Curves for 24 Key States and Provinces appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

You can say the same thing about the COVID-19 pandemic. We all have a job to do to beat this thing. Every single one of us. Please use common sense, stay informed, and heed the warnings, guidance, and orders from your local, state, and federal government. Just like Hurricane and Tornado Warnings, there is a reason they are issuing warnings right now. Let’s have a look at why.

A New Type of Model: The SIR Model

Last week, we took a look at modeling the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States using Gaussian functions. Gaussian functions are also known as bell curves. Not surprisingly, there are more accurate ways to model a pandemic like this than with bell curves. Today, we are going to look at different scenarios using the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Resistant) model. The SIR model is a simple model that uses a system of three differential equations to specifically model disease outbreaks.

The relationship between the equations is:

Getting into how to solve the differential equations is a discussion for another time. In English, the equations and variables describe:

• S(t) – The number of susceptible people (people who have not yet contracted the disease) over time
• I(t) – The number of infected people (people who are currently sick) over time
• R(t) – The number of resistant people (people who have either recovered or died) over time. The model assumes that recovered people cannot get sick a second time.
  • Note: In the model outputs below, I have broken R(t) down into recovered and dead.
• β – controls how often a susceptible-infected contact results in a new infection
• γ – The rate an infected person recovers and moves into the resistant phase

Introduction to R Naught

Now, you’re probably wondering where the “R naught” parameter comes in. R naught, denoted as R0, is the reproduction number. It is just a fancy way to say the average number of susceptible people to which an infected person spreads the disease. For example, if R naught is 3, it means that one infected person spreads the disease to an average of 3 other people over the course of their illness. We’ll define R naught as:

R0 = β / γ

Now, before we jump into the model, let’s have a look at the model inputs. Within the model, we need to define the population N. The population of the United States is about 330 million. We also need to define the average duration of infection, which according to the CDC is about 14 days. The initial conditions for each equation [S(t), I(t), and R(t)] were set so the numbers mirror the actual data of the outbreak in the United States so far.

The only input to the model is the R naught parameter. While we will be running the model for different scenarios, we’ll start with what the US Federal Government currently defines for R naught: R0 = 2.3. Keep in mind that these figures assume R0 is constant, while in the real world R0 is changing constantly.

A Few Short-Term SIR Model Predictions for the United States

First, a couple of short-term predictions from the SIR model, again assuming a constant R0.

Before we plot everything out over the course of the pandemic, I need to point out a few very important things:

• The plot (and the above plots) assumes R0 stays constant at 2.3. In the real world, R0 is constantly changing.
• Because R0 stays constant, it means that this scenario does not account for preventative measures, such as restrictions on large crowds, restaurant and bar closings, travel bans, and shelter-in-place orders.
• This is a worst-case scenario and the odds of this actually playing out are very slim.

Flattening the Curve

Flattening the curve. You hear it all over the news. What does it mean? If you leave the virus unchecked, it will grow exponentially and quickly overwhelm the hospital system when all of the sick patients show up at once. Instead, health authorities want to slow down the rate the disease is spreading and spread the sick patients out over time so hospitals can handle the volume of patients.

So how do we slow down the rate the disease is spreading? Simply lower the value of R naught. Okay, in the real world it’s quite a bit more complicated. Federal, state, and local governments across the country are putting measures in place to slow down the spread of the virus and reduce R naught, which may include:

• Bans on large gatherings
• Quarantines and Self-Isolation
• Closing of schools, restaurants, bars, museums, and other public places where people tend to gather
• Cancellations of Events
• Closing Borders and Travel Bans
• Shelter In Place Orders and Lockdowns

Still don’t believe me that flattening the curve works? Have a look at the following figure. I ran the SIR model several times with identical parameters, only varying the R naught values. Like the above examples, R naught remains constant for each run. These are just hypothetical scenarios and are not any kind of indication that anything like this will actually play out in the real world.

By reducing the R0 value from 2.6 down to 1.6, the number of infected people at the peak of the outbreak drops from 80 million down to about 25 million. For those of you that are mathematically challenged, that’s about 2/3, or 67% fewer infected people at the peak of the outbreak.

Modeling the Changing R Naught Values

The easiest way to model the changing R naught values is to use piecewise functions to solve the differential equations. That just means we will assign different values of R naught for different values of time (t in the differential equations at the top of this post). If you’ve ever done numerical analysis or numerical integration, you’ve probably come across piecewise functions at some point, but that’s a discussion for another day.

So how does this all translate to the real world? Consider a scenario that we’ve seen in a lot of countries so far in this pandemic. The virus spreads undetected within the community at the start of the outbreak. Then, federal, state, and local authorities put increasingly restrictive measures into place. Restrictions start with bans on large gatherings. They then escalate to closing down restaurants, bars, and other public places. Finally, officials order a mandatory shelter-in-place or lockdown.

To illustrate this visually, I modeled a hypothetical scenario where the virus starts with R0 = 2.3. It spreads undetected for about 45 days at the onset of the outbreak. The government orders restrictions, scaling down R Naught until the issuance of a shelter-in-place order. In this scenario, it takes about a month to go from issuing the first restriction to a full lockdown. In the real world, the restrictions are implemented much faster than that. For example, it took Italy 12 days to go from just a handful of cases to the entire country under lockdown. It took Spain 9 days to do the same.

Looking at the Real World

This is where it gets tricky. Because the United States is so big and diverse, let’s look at ten major cities instead. Different states, counties, and cities have enacted different bans to combat the virus, making it nearly impossible to accurately use this model at a national level. For example, the shelter-in-place that was just issued for the San Francisco Bay area is not going to affect what’s going on in Seattle, Chicago, or New York.

A Few Things to Keep in Mind

• These models consider the population of each metro area, which include the main city plus all of its suburbs.
• The R0 values on the plots are fixed for each run. In the real world, the R0 values will start high and then drop as restrictions are enacted.
• The high number of undetected or asymptomatic cases will help keep the R0 value of COVID-19 high.
• The “Peak” label in the legends refers to the number of infected people at the peak of the outbreak for that scenario.
• You want to focus on the number of infected people at the peak of each scenario. Do not worry about the exact dates of the peaks of the outbreaks.
  • As you look at those peak values, think of how you can help with social distancing to reduce R0.
• The current R0 value of the coronavirus in the United States is about 2.3, according to the federal government. That means that every infected person spreads the disease to an average of 2.3 other people. For comparison, the seasonal flu has an R0 value of 1.3.
• I don’t know what the hospital capacity is in each city, but for reference New York State (read: the whole state, not just NYC) has 54,000 hospital beds and 3,100 ICU beds.
• When the city of Wuhan, China enacted their total lockdown in January, the R0 value dropped from 2.35 to 1.05 in less than a week. You won’t see R0 drops this drastic in the United States. However, the goal to get R0 as low as possible remains the same.

SIR Model Outputs for Several US Cities

Conclusion

For this pandemic, I will say the same thing I say before just about every major weather disaster. Please heed your local, state, and federal government’s warnings. I can’t stress this enough. In a weather disaster, you’re only putting your own life at stake by being stupid. In a pandemic, you’re putting the lives of every one else who’s around you at stake as well.

I understand we are a society that rewards stupidity. If we all work together, there is still time to slow this thing down, but that window will slam shut in just a matter of a few days. All quarantining yourself from knowledge and common sense does is keep that critical R0 value high and put more lives at risk. I’ll leave you with one final plot of COVID-19 data comparing the US cases to Italy’s. This is actual data and is not generated by any models. Stay tuned for more updates.

The post America, Please Don’t Quarantine Yourself From Knowledge appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Amarillo by morning, Amarillo’s on my mind

Palo Duro Canyon has been on my bucket list ever since I lived in Norman. Moving to Arizona and exploring the southwest only fueled my desire to visit even more. This trip, I finally decided that I would make the trip to the canyon. No excuses.

The Grand Canyon of Texas

Palo Duro Canyon is often referred to as “The Grand Canyon of Texas” and “The Grand Canyon’s Little Brother”. Meaning “strong wood” in Spanish, it is the second longest canyon in the United States. It is roughly 200 km (120 mi) long with an average width of 10 km (6 mi). Only Arizona’s Grand Canyon is longer. Palo Duro Canyon is part of the Caprock Escarpment.

The entrance to the state park located only about 40 km (25 mi) south of Amarillo, Texas. The canyon was formed by the Prairie Dog Town Fork of the Red River during the Pleistocene era. Humans first inhabited the canyon about 15,000 years ago, and have continuously inhabited it ever since.

Shortly after entering the state park, you get your first view of the canyon, and boy, did it not disappoint, especially in the early morning light. A stunning 180-degree vista of the canyon greets you prior to the descent into the canyon.

Descent into the Canyon

One of the big differences between the Grand Canyon and Palo Duro Canyon is that you can drive down to the bottom of Palo Duro Canyon. The road to the bottom of the canyon is steep, but straight, with the exception of a switchback at the very bottom. The State of Texas paves and maintains the road, so it is in very good condition.

After hours of driving across the prairies of far eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, the descent into the canyon felt like I was instantly transported back to Arizona and Utah. At the bottom of the canyon, I was able to see rock layers similar to the Grand Canyon, rock formations like the ones you see in Zion National Park, and hoodoos that always conjure up memories of Bryce Canyon. There was also plenty of prickly pear cactus and other desert plants, which is a common sight across much of West Texas.

There are plenty of outdoor recreational activities in which you can partake at Palo Duro Canyon State Park, including hiking, camping, mountain biking, horseback riding, and much more. It looks like there are some really spectacular hikes throughout the entire park. Unfortunately I didn’t have time to do any of them. I needed to get back on the road and head for my next stopover in Norman, Oklahoma. Maybe next time.

View Full Photo Album

The post Palo Duro Canyon: The Grand Canyon of Texas appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Determining exactly what type of precipitation will occur where and how much accumulation there will be is very difficult. If we look at the big picture, one way to be able to at least make an educated guess as to what type of precipitation will fall is to look at the Surface – 500 mb (About 17,000 feet) max temperature and the surface temperature predictions. These maps are for Saturday morning at 3 AM CST, which the GFS model is currently indicating has the highest probability to see both cold temperatures and precipitation. The thick black line marks approximately the freezing isotherm.

Sfc-500 mb Max Temp (°C)

Surface Temperature (°F)

If you are below freezing on both maps, you will more likely than not see snow. If you are above freezing on both maps, you will likely see rain. If you are above freezing on the Surface-500 mb max temperature map, but below freezing on the surface map, you will likely see either sleet or freezing rain. It is impossible to determine whether you will see sleet or freezing rain just by looking at these two maps.

The easiest way to get a better grip on whether you’ll get sleet or freezing rain is to look at soundings. The following are GFS Forecast soundings for Oklahoma City, OK and Amarillo, TX for 3 AM CST Saturday.

 

The first thing that really jumps out is the depth of the warm (above freezing) layer. At Oklahoma City, the warm layer is close to 200 mb (about 6,000 ft) deep, while at Amarillo, that same layer is only 75 mb (about 3,000 ft) deep. The other key ingredient is how high that warm layer is. Even when we take into account that the elevation of Amarillo is about 2,500 feet higher than Oklahoma City, the warm layer is much higher compared to the surface at Amarillo than it is at Oklahoma City. If these models verify, I would expect sleet in Amarillo with a shallow, elevated warm layer, while I would expect freezing rain in Oklahoma City with a deep and much lower warm layer.

In situations like this, a small change in temperature at any given height can mean a big change in what type of precipitation falls and its subsequent impacts. Forecast soundings for Guymon, OK (in the panhandle) show all layers below freezing, which means folks there are more likely to see snow, but again, it’s so close that if any of the lower levels are warmer than what the model says, they could easily end up with sleet or freezing rain. The good news is that since it has been in the 60s and 70s all week, the ground is so warm that nothing will stick, but I would expect to see some light ice/snow accumulations on elevated surfaces such as bridges/overpasses, trees, and powerlines.

Stay tuned for more info. Things change very fast with these types of storms. There’s a second round of precipitation coming in between Sunday and Tuesday, so I will be posting more as we get closer.

The post Winter Weather Set to Invade the Southern Plains appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.