1. A country announces they have discovered a new variant
2. Experts speculate that this is the variant that will evade vaccines
3. Everyone freaks out and panics for a few weeks
4. Data proves that vaccines still provide adequate protection against the variant
5. You see a wave of the variant sweep through many countries
6. Life goes on

With the omicron variant of COVID, most countries are currently in the early stages of step 5. However, there are still two big unknowns: how big will the wave be, and how quickly will it surge?

The Omicron Surge Will Resemble the COVID Spike in India From the Delta Variant

Remember how highly contagious the Delta Variant is? As you can probably guess, the Omicron Variant must be significantly more contagious in order to out-compete Delta. And initial data shows that it is. As a result, Omicron will spread much faster, making the spike taller. But there’s a silver lining: it will come and go quickly. Think of it coming through like a tornado instead of a hurricane. Recall the COVID spike in India from the Delta Variant.

Because Omicron is more contagious than Delta, that spike will be taller, but last shorter. And don’t forget to account for population. With nearly 1.4 billion people, India is the second most populous country in the world. Smaller populations in just about every other country will result in both a shorter and less severe spike. In an Omicron wave, the United States is the only country that has the potential to come anywhere remotely close to the 400,000 daily cases that India saw in their Delta spike. And I think even that is highly unlikely.

COVID Cases from the Omicron Variant Have Already Peaked in Some Countries

Yes, you read that right. The Omicron wave has already peaked in some countries. After South Africa first identified Omicron in late November, health officials quickly contact traced cases back to both Germany and the Netherlands. And guess what? New Omicron cases are now falling in all three countries.

Omicron has obviously spread far beyond those three countries. However, I expect any Omicron surges in other countries will resemble the time series above.

A Word of Caution About South Africa’s Demographics

South Africa has one of the most advanced and sophisticated health science programs in the world. There is nothing wrong with data coming out of South Africa. In fact, I trust their data 100%. The issue lies primarily in South Africa’s age demographics, which heavily skew towards younger people. Just 5.5% of South Africans are over 65. That’s a stark contrast to 17% in the United States, 16% in Canada, and 21% in the European Union. That’s why health officials originally cautioned about reports of omicron in South Africa being primarily mild. Thankfully, data from the European Union seems to confirm that omicron is less severe than Delta.

Additionally, don’t forget that South Africa’s location in the Southern Hemisphere means that they are heading into summer right now. Omicron is so contagious that summer vs winter may not make any significant difference anymore. However, data since the start of the pandemic has repeatedly shown that surges are worse in the winter season, regardless of which hemisphere you live in.

I Believe the Omicron Variant Originated in Europe, Not Africa

Just because South Africa discovered the Omicron variant doesn’t necessarily mean that it originated there. And after looking at the data, I believe that Omicron actually originated in Europe and was then brought to South Africa, not the other way around.

First, let’s recall the new daily COVID cases from Germany, the Netherlands, and South Africa we just looked at in the previous section.

What jumps out at me right away? The slope of the upward side of the omicron spike in late 2021 is identical in all three countries. While it’s not definitive proof, it’s likely that the same variant caused all three surges. And we know for certain that Omicron caused the surge in South Africa. In addition, Notice how the spike starts earlier in both Germany (black) and the Netherlands (red) earlier than it does in South Africa (green). We’ll circle back to this in a sec.

Second, look at how Omicron spread in South Africa. The first clusters emerged in Gauteng Province, which is mostly comprised of the City of Johannesburg. And do you know what’s in Johannesburg? South Africa’s largest international airport. Nearly all international flights in and out of the country go through Johannesburg. As Omicron spread throughout the country, the worst of the outbreak remained in Gauteng. Interestingly, Gauteng was also the first province in South Africa to reach the peak of the Omicron outbreak.

Botswana Contact Traces Omicron Back to Europe…Before Any Evidence of it Appeared in Africa

After popping up in South Africa, Omicron quickly jumped the border into neighboring Botswana. With the help of the South African Health Ministry, the Federal Government of Botswana contact traced omicron cases back to the Netherlands as early as 8 November. And it may have been in Germany earlier than that.

Furthermore, after extensive contact tracing, neither Botswana nor South Africa could find any evidence of the omicron variant in Africa prior to 15 November. If it was in Europe as early as 8 November, but didn’t appear in Africa until the 15th, how could it have originated in Africa? For reference, South Africa announced the discovery of Omicron on 26 November.

Timing of the Omicron Wave Lines Up Perfectly with it Originating in Europe

To prevent confusion, let’s have a look at new daily Covid cases in just Germany. The start of Germany’s Omicron spike lines up perfectly with Botswana’s contact tracing of Omicron back to the Netherlands on 8 November. Germany’s uneven uptick in cases in late October is likely from the Delta Variant.

Repeat the process for the Netherlands and you get the same perfectly-aligned timing.

Interestingly, the data out of both South Africa and Botswana seem to confirm the contact tracing that Omicron was not present in Africa prior to 15 November. Unlike Germany and the Netherlands, South Africa’s Omicron spike did not start until after they announced they had discovered Omicron on 26 November.

So is this definitive proof that Omicron originated in Europe? Most certainly not. However, it does illustrate how ineffective travel bans are in stopping COVID-19. If my theory is true, banning travel from southern Africa would have done absolutely nothing to stop the Omicron variant if it originated and had already taken hold in Europe.

What Will the Omicron Spike Look Like in the United States, Canada, and Great Britain?

All three countries will see something similar to what India saw with Delta, or what Germany, the Netherlands, and South Africa saw with Omicron. The million dollar question is how big will the spike get, and how long will it last?

To answer those questions, let’s look where each country stands right now. All three countries have started spiking from Omicron. The United States currently has the highest new daily case loads, and as a result, will likely get hit the hardest. The UK is experiencing the biggest spike, while Canada is in the best shape of the three.

For what to expect, let’s turn to the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and and Evaluation (IHME) model.

As expected, I tend to agree with the IHME’s most likely projections. I think both the Universal Masks case as well as the worst-case scenario are both highly unlikely. Holiday gatherings may slightly increase the peak daily cases as well as push the peak date shortly into the future.

We Are Much Better Prepared for Omicron than Any Previous Variant of COVID

Despite all of the doom and gloom predictions, the world is much better prepared for Omicron than any previous variant. First, and foremost, we still have highly effective vaccines. Yes, their effectiveness took a hit, but go back to the Fall of 2020. As companies raced to develop vaccines, most infectious disease experts said that vaccine effectiveness of 50-60% would be a major victory. After a booster shot, both Pfizer and Moderna are reporting 70-75% effectiveness against Omicron.

Furthermore, many more people have immunity after the Delta wave. Through both vaccinations and natural immunity, the pool of susceptible people is much smaller than previous variants had, and that pool keeps shrinking every day. Combined with the highly infectious nature of Omicron, the wave will be over before you know it.

In addition, antiviral treatments are becoming more effective and more widely available. In fact, some of the antivirals are not expected to lose any effectiveness because they don’t target the virus’ spike protein, which is where all of Omicron’s mutations are. And it seems like more treatments are being approved just about every day.

Finally, don’t forget about what I said about Delta. The more infectious it becomes, the harder it will be for other variants to compete with it. As a result, that may end up being a blessing in disguise and help us end the pandemic sooner. The same logic applies to Omicron.

Other Areas of Interest to Watch

Besides all of the countries and regions we have covered so far, there are a few additional areas to watch over the next few months as Omicron spreads around the world.

Conclusion

The Omicron Variant is a harsh reminder that the COVID-19 pandemic is still far from over. However, the panic and hysteria surrounding Omicron is largely unwarranted. Yes, some restrictions will likely be re-introduced, but we will not be going back to the dark lockdown days of March and April, 2020. Back then, there were no vaccines and no treatments.

Today, we have a much bigger toolbox. Go get your booster, and be smart about your holiday gatherings. The Omicron wave will be in and out quickly, regardless of what country you’re in. Then, we can get back to living our lives, and be one step closer to putting this awful pandemic behind us once and for all. Happy New Year, everyone!

Top Image: Matt’s COVID-19 Risk Index for the United States as of 23 December, 2021

The post Why You Shouldn’t Panic Over the Omicron Variant of COVID-19 appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Where is Rue Canusa?

Rue Canusa sits in a beautiful, rolling, and rural part of the Green Mountains separating Stanstead, Québec from Beebe Plain, Vermont. As the crow flies, it’s equidistant from both Montréal and Burlington; however, the nearest city is Sherbrooke, Québec, about 45 km (28 mi) to the northeast.

Why You Should Drive Rue Canusa

Despite Rue Canusa’s short length – about half a kilometer – it’s loaded with history. Despite increasingly tightened security on both sides of the border over the past 30 years, it will give you glimpse into the past when life along the border was much simpler and much more unified.

In addition, Rue Canusa is one of the only places in the world where you can drive down the street, turn around, and come back down the same street in the opposite direction and be in a different country. In fact, it may be the only place in the world you can do that, but I haven’t been able to verify that for certain.

Prior to the September 11th terror attacks, communities along this part of the US-Canada border largely functioned as a single community. Crossing the border was simple and painless, more often resembling the process of crossing state or provincial boundaries than the international border crossings you know today.

Modern Times Means Tighter Border Security

Both the United States and Canada really began cracking down on border security in the immediate aftermath of the September 11th attacks. All of these small bi-national communities on the border were split in half overnight. People stopped crossing the border for simple errands, and many facilities that were built on the border to cater to patrons from both countries closed. The only venue that remains open today is the Haskell Free Library and Opera House, though it, too, has been closed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Today, all that remains of those simpler times are gates and barriers across streets that once united the communities on each side of the border. All cross-border traffic is redirected to official ports of entry. While you hate to lose the unification of border communities, the benefits of tighter border security far outweigh the convenience of being able to walk into another country completely unaware that you’re crossing the border.

An Interesting Historical Legend

One of the more fascinating aspects of the history of Rue Canusa is its historical legend. The legend claims that when Stanstead and Beebe Plain were being settled back in the 1700s, a group of surveyors had too much to drink when they were working to determine where the international border was. Some people claim that these drunk surveyors were behind Rue Canusa. Others say it was just a mistake. Either way, both Stanstead and Beebe Plain continue to try and function as a single community despite the ever-evolving international border.

How Do You Get to Rue Canusa?

You can easily access Rue Canusa from either the United States or Canada. However, it is much easier from a logistical standpoint if you access it from Canada because you do not need to check in with customs prior to entering Rue Canusa. We’ll circle back to this very shortly.

Rue Canusa itself is very short, only about half a kilometer (1/3 mile). However, both countries have ports of entry at the west end of Rue Canusa. About 2 km to the east, you’ll find a much larger port of entry at the northern terminus of Interstate 91 and the southern terminus of Autoroute 55.

Access From Canada

From Canada, head south from Magog, Québec on either Autoroute 55 or Highway 247. If you have time, I recommend using Highway 247, a scenic, laid back drive that runs through rolling hills, forests, and quaint farmland along the shores of Lake Mamphrémagog. On the other hand, Autoroute 55 is a major freeway. Even better, Highway 247 becomes Rue Canusa when you reach the border.

On Highway 247, you’ll know you’re close when you start seeing signs for “Douanes”, which means “customs” in French. When you reach the border, follow the large orange barricade as the road bends 90 degrees to the left. Pass between the American and Canadian customs halls and onto Rue Canusa.

Access From the United States

From the United States, follow Interstate 91 North to its northern terminus at the border. Take the first left after clearing Canadian customs onto Québec 247. Follow Highway 247 for about 2 kilometers, which will bring you to the eastern end of Rue Canusa. After completing your journey down Rue Canusa, turn left to return to the United States, or turn right to continue north into Canada.

How Customs Works

It’s no surprise that Rue Canusa’s unique design causes confusion among visitors and non-residents. Thankfully, it’s not as complicated as it may seem. Both countries have special rules for residents of Rue Canusa to deal with the border issue, but they do not apply to visitors.

When visiting Rue Canusa, always remember my golden rule: if in doubt, stop at the customs hall and check in. If they don’t need anything from you, they’ll send you on your way. On the other hand, failure to check in at customs will result in thousands of dollars in fines and can even result in jail time. A quick stop at customs can save yourself a ton of headaches.

Because Rue Canusa is a Québec Provincial Highway, the rule is shockingly simple. If you’re coming from Canada and staying in Canada, you do not need to pass through customs. If you’re doing anything else, you will need to clear customs on either or both of your outbound and return trips. The map below should make it clear why.

What to Expect Driving or Walking Rue Canusa

If I dropped you onto Rue Canusa without any context, it would feel just like any other quiet, quaint residential street in the US or Canada. Well-kept homes line both sides of the street. There are even a few businesses on the Québec side of the street near the east end of Rue Canusa.

Furthermore, you would have no idea an international border ran right down the middle of the street. Okay, maybe Canadian flags flying on one side of the street and American flags flying on the other might clue you in. But there are no fences, markers, or other indicators of the border aside from the customs buildings at one end of Rue Canusa and a survey marker at the other.

What Language Do You Speak on Rue Canusa?

If you speak English or French, you’re all set. All federal operations (read: customs) on both sides of the border are fully bilingual. In town, you will find both languages used in many places. However, people will favor English on the Vermont side of the border and French on the Québec side.

What Else is There to do near Rue Canusa?

There are so many other things to do and places to explore on both sides of the border year round. From skiing and snow sports in the winter to swimming and boating in the summer to leaf peeping and maple syrup in the fall, there are activities for everyone.

Activities in Canada

The closest and most popular attraction to Rue Canusa on the Canadian side of the border are Québec’s National Parks. About 25 kilometers to the north, you’ll find Parc National du Mont Orford, which is famous for its breathtaking mountain landscapes and outdoor recreation. And if that’s not enough, there are 4 additional National Parks within a two to three hour drive of Rue Canusa, as well as numerous nature preserves, provincial parks, and lakes.

But what if you’re not the outdoorsy type? Montréal, Sherbrooke, and Québec City are all less than a three-hour drive from Rue Canusa. All three cities are rich in culture, history, and activities both indoors and out. And if you’re willing to travel a little further, Toronto, Ottawa, and the Canadian Maritimes are all easily within reach.

Activities in the United States

While the northeastern United States does not have the National Parks that Québec boasts, all of the northeast states have amazing state parks, forests, and outdoor recreation. You can easily reach both Boston and New York City in a day’s drive. And if you’re craving some of the best seafood in the world, the same goes for downeast Maine. And while you’re there, don’t forget to visit Acadia National Park, either.

Haskell Free Library and Opera House

About a kilometer east of Rue Canusa, you’ll find the Haskell Free Library and Opera House. Intentionally built straddling the international border, the fully bilingual library has served both nations since it opened in 1904. Furthermore, it’s the only performance space in the world where the stage and the audience are in two different countries. There’s actually a running joke that it’s the only library in the United States without books and the only opera house in the United States without a stage. The bookshelves and the opera stage are both on the Canadian side of the building.

You can enter the library from either the US or Canada and move around freely while inside, but once you’re done, the rule is simple: you must return to the country from which you came.

Conclusion

Rue Canusa is one of the most unique streets in the world. Whether you’re driving, walking, biking, or something else, you’ll be able to say you’ve done something very few other people in the world have. But don’t get caught up in the moment. While the US and Canada are very friendly, they both take border security very seriously. Respect the laws, soak in the uniqueness of the moment, and you’re bound to have a safe, fun, and memorable time.

Resources

• Canada Border Services Agency
• U.S. Customs and Border Protection
• Rue Canusa Photos (August, 2019)
• Haskell Free Library Photos (August, 2019)
• Driving Rue Canusa (August, 2019)
• Visiting to the Haskell Free Library (August, 2019)
• Haskell Free Library Website

Top Photo: Driving Rue Canusa
Stanstead, Québec, Canada – August, 2019

The post The Complete Travelers’ Guide to Rue Canusa appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Little did I know at the time, that would be my final cross-border adventure before international borders slammed shut less than six months later as the COVID-19 pandemic swept across the world. A year and a half later, some countries are cautiously beginning to reopen. As of 9 August, 2021, fully vaccinated Americans can now visit Canada for non-essential purposes.

However, if you think the border crossing will be as easy as it was in 2019, you’re in for a big surprise. There’s a lot of documentation you’ll need to be allowed into Canada. We’ll go through all of the paperwork you’ll need, as well as the rules you’ll need to follow while you’re in Canada. Make sure you have all of your documentation in order before leaving home. You will not be allowed into Canada without it.

First, Determine If You’re Eligible to Enter Canada

To save yourself a lot of headaches, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) has a free online self-assessment to determine if you’re eligible to enter Canada.

We strongly recommend you use this prior to departing for the border. That way, if you’re not eligible to enter Canada, you’ll save yourself the trouble of traveling to and from the border.

Use the ArriveCAN App to Manage All of Your Documents

To make it easier to manage and submit documentation to enter Canada, the Government of Canada created ArriveCAN, a free and secure app. Submitting all of your documentation prior to arriving at the border significantly expedites the amount of time you’ll need to spend at customs.

You can download the ArriveCAN app for free from the Apple App Store or from Google Play. You can also access ArriveCAN from a web browser.

You’ll Need a Negative COVID-19 PCR Test Taken No More Than 72 Hours Prior to Your Arrival in Canada.

Regardless of your vaccination status, Canada still requires every individual that crosses its border to present a negative COVID-19 test. For Americans entering Canada, the testing requirements are simple.

• The test must be administered in the US no more than 72 hours prior to your arrival at the border.
• You must take a molecular (PCR) test. Those are the “brain tickler” tests where they swab your nose with a long Q-Tip. If you present any other type of test to the CBSA, including rapid and at-home tests, you will be denied entry into Canada.

Canada no longer requires post-arrival testing for fully vaccinated travelers. However, you may be randomly selected to complete a molecular (PCR) COVID-19 test at the border. If you’re selected, please comply with border officials. They will send you back to the US if you don’t.

Vaccinated Individuals no Longer Need to Quarantine, but You Will Need a Quarantine Plan

Fully vaccinated individuals are now exempt from Canada’s mandatory quarantine. However, the CBSA requires that you submit a quarantine plan in case you test positive for COVID-19 while you’re in Canada. Submit your quarantine plan through the ArriveCAN app prior to arriving at the border.

The easiest quarantine plan is to stay at a quarantine hotel authorized by the Government of Canada. However, doing so has some drawbacks. You will have to pay your own expenses in the event you need to quarantine. Two weeks of hotel expenses, meals, and more, can add up quick.

Your quarantine plan must show that you will:

• Remain completely isolated from all other people for 14 days or possibly longer.
• Have access to the necessities of life, including food, water, medication, and heat/air conditioning without leaving quarantine.
• Avoid contact with all others who did not travel with you.
• Have no visits from family or guests.

Anyone who is not a Canadian citizen and does not have a suitable quarantine plan will be denied entry into Canada.

If You Are Required to Quarantine, Make Daily Reports Through the ArriveCAN App

Use the ArriveCAN app to confirm that you’ve arrived at your place of quarantine. Complete daily COVID-19 symptom self-assessments until the end of your quarantine. Expect calls, emails, and visits from the Government of Canada to ensure you’re not breaking quarantine. If you’re caught breaking quarantine, you can face up to 6 months in prison and/or up to $750,000 in fines.

If you’re required to quarantine, you will be tested on the 8th day of quarantine. Should the test comes back positive, you will be required to quarantine longer.

Leaving Canada Prior to the End of Your Quarantine

You may choose to leave Canada prior to the end of your quarantine, as long as you remain aysmptomatic. Please note that you must get authorization from a quarantine officer in order to leave if you are staying at a federally designated quarantine facility. As you depart Canada, you must comply with several rules.

• Continue to quarantine yourself until your departure date
• Wear a mask when you depart Canada
• Minimize contact with the general public while you’re traveling from your quarantine facility to the border. Pay for gas at the pump and only use the drive-through when getting food.
• Comply with all rules and regulations in your destination country.

Please note that if you attempt to leave Canada while showing symptoms, you may only exit using a private vehicle through a land border. You will not be allowed on public transportation, including airplanes.

Proof of Vaccination is Required to Enter Canada

If you are not vaccinated and are not a Canadian citizen, you will not be allowed to enter Canada. It’s as simple as that. Submit your proof of vaccination through the ArriveCAN app prior to arriving at the border. If you received your vaccine in the US, use your CDC Vaccination Card as proof. Your documentation must adhere to the following rules.

• Proof of vaccination must be in English or French (or a certified translation)
• In addition to submitting proof through the ArriveCAN app, you must carry a paper or digital copy of your vaccine documentation (in English or French) when you arrive at the border.
• You must have reached full vaccination status at least 2 weeks prior to arriving in Canada.

Like the US, Canada defines fully vaccinated as 2 weeks after your second shot, or 2 weeks after your shot for a single dose vaccine. The CBSA currently accepts four vaccines, including all three that the United States has authorized for use.

• Pfizer-BioNTech
• Moderna
• AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD
• Janssen/Johnson & Johnson

If you received a vaccine that is not one of the four listed above, you are not eligible to enter Canada.

Don’t Even Think of Using Fake Vaccine Documents

The CBSA recently fined 2 Americans $20,000 each for trying to enter Canada using fake vaccine cards. The maximum penalty for submitting false vaccination information is a fine of $750,000 and 6 months in prison. Don’t even think about doing it.

Americans Showing Symptoms of Any Illness Will Be Denied Entry into Canada

It frustrates me to no avail that we have to keep saying this over and over. If you’re sick, stay home and get better. Whatever you had planned will still be there, and you’ll enjoy it much more when you’re feeling better.

Check With Local Governments in the Province or Territory You’re Visiting for any Additional Entry Restrictions

Canada implements its COVID-19 restrictions very similarly to the United States. The federal government issues general rules, including for travel and the border. But they leave figuring out details of local restrictions to provincial, territorial, and local governments.

Check with the governments of the province and city you’ll be staying in to ensure you’re complying with all entry restrictions that extend beyond what the federal government requires. The last thing you want to do is comply with all the federal restrictions only to get in trouble because you weren’t aware of a rule at the provincial or city level.

Throughout the pandemic, Ontario and Québec have both been particularly strict. On the other hand, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta have been much more lenient.

Unvaccinated Children 12 and Under May Enter Canada with Fully Vaccinated Parents, But There’s a Catch

Unvaccinated children must quarantine for 14 days upon arrival in Canada. They must also take a molecular (PCR) test on the 8th day of quarantine. Once they’re out of quarantine, they must avoid group settings and places where people gather.

Please be aware this rule will likely change once health authorities approve vaccines for children 12 and under. Check with the Government of Canada for the latest information if you’re traveling with unvaccinated children.

You’ll Have a Larger Choice of Airports for Inbound International Flights into Canada

When the US-Canada border first closed in March, 2020, the Government of Canada directed all international flights carrying inbound passengers to land at one of four airports.

If you’re going to be flying into Canada, we have some good news. The federal government has expanded the list of approved airports that can accept international flights. In addition to the original four, you can now land at any of these five airports.

If you’re traveling by land, all ports of entry on the US-Canada border are open. However, please advised that they may have reduced or altered their hours of operation due to the ongoing pandemic. You can get the current hours of operation on the CBSA’s website.

All of the Pre-COVID Requirements to Enter Canada are Still in Place

Finally, don’t forget that all of the requirements to enter Canada prior to the COVID-19 pandemic are still all in place. Customs will still ask you everything they asked you in 2019 and years prior. Don’t try to bring in any food, weapons, drugs, or anything else you shouldn’t be.

Returning to the United States

There are currently few restrictions on US Citizens returning to the United States. If you’re returning to the US by air, you must present a negative COVID-19 test taken within three days of your departure or proof of recovery from a COVID-19 infection within the last 90 days.

You’ll submit the test results to the airline prior to boarding the plane. Under US federal law, airlines must deny boarding to all passengers on US-bound flights who do not provide proof of a negative test or recovery, regardless of their vaccination status.

At land borders coming into the United States, you will pass through customs as you always have. US Customs and Border Protection does not require proof of negative test or vaccination for US Citizens to re-enter the United States at land ports.

References

Conclusion

The partial reopening of the border into Canada is a beacon of hope in what’s been a brutal year and a half of closures. While we still have a long way to go in the fight against COVID-19, just remember these restrictions are only temporary.

I am certainly looking forward to when we can once again cross the border like we did in 2019. Until then, make sure you have all your required documents, be transparent and comply with border officials, and most importantly, enjoy your stay in Canada.

Top Photo: Fork in the Autoroute Just Ouside of Montréal
Les Cèdres, Québec, Canada – August, 2019

The post Want to Visit Canada Now that the Border is Open? Here’s Everything You Need to Know. appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Countries are constantly reshaping international borders around the world using everything from treaties to natural forces. Over the years, odd quirks, mystical clauses, and even human error have resulted in some, well, let’s just say, creative international borders.

The border between Baarle-Nassau, Netherlands and Baarle-Hertog, Belgium just boggles the mind. And what about Dahala Khagrabari? Until the signing of a 2015 treaty, it was a piece of India inside of a piece of Bangladesh inside a piece of India inside a piece of Bangladesh. If that gives you an ice cream headache, let me put it another way. Dahala Khagrabari is the only third-level enclave in world history.

Today, we’re going to take it a step further. Instead of looking at strange borders, let’s instead look at some countries that pop up in some rather unusual and unexpected places. You’ll learn about their history and explore some new places. Who knows, maybe you’ll even get some inspiration for your next adventure.

1. Ceuta and Melilla: Visit Spain and Africa at the Same Time

Spain is best-known for its rich culture, beautiful beaches, and temperate climate. In the 1500’s and 1600’s, it spread its influence around the world. Spanish conquistadors colonized everywhere from what is modern-day Latin America to the Philippines. In fact, did you know that in the 1800’s, Spain designated Mexico City as the administrative capital of the Philippines?

While Spain no longer holds any overseas colonies or territories, it still holds 2 exclaves outside of Europe. You’ll find both Spanish cities on the northern coast of Africa, embedded in Morocco. Ceuta has been part of Spain since 1668. A treaty with Morocco fixed the current city limits of Melilla in 1859.

Despite being part of Spain, you won’t find the traditional Spanish culture like you’d experience in the main body of Spain. Both cities are also rich in Arab culture with Jewish and Portuguese influences. Many of these influences stem from when Portugal occupied parts of Morocco from the middle ages to the 19th century.

Fun Fact

During his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump frequently cited fencing around both Ceuta and Melilla as arguments for building a wall along the US-Mexico Border.

Interestingly, this is not the only time you’ll find Spain in an unexpected place. However, you will have to get very close to Spain to do so.

2. Llívia: Visit Spain Without Actually Going to Spain

Thanks to a bizarre history and the European Union’s laws that allow you to freely move between countries, you can visit Spain without actually going to Spain.

The town of Llívia sits about 2 km north of the border crossing between Bourg-Madame, France and Puigcerdà, Spain. Over the years, both countries have laid claim to it, while at other times, neither country has claimed it.

Llívia’s long and strange history began in 1659, when the Treaty of the Pyrenees ceded the enclave to France. However, due to a quirk in the wording of the treaty that stipulated that all villages would become part of France, Llívia was considered a town instead of a village, despite France’s claim to it. Over the years, both countries have laid claim to Llívia numerous times before finally ending their squabbling upon the formation of the European Union.

Today, Llívia remains steeped in history and rich in Spanish architecture, culture, and cuisine. Because both France and Spain are in the European Union’s Schengen Area, you can easily pass through town and not realize you are in another country. Despite France’s numerous claims to the territory, Llívia retains Spanish dialing codes, postal codes, and emergency services. Ironically, French is not spoken at all in Llívia. Its two primary languages are Spanish and Catalan.

Which is a perfect segue into our next oddity.

3. Campione d’Italia: The Italian Village That’s Part of Switzerland

Up until 1 January, 2020, the village of Campione d’Italia was one-of-a-kind. You needed to clear Swiss customs to access the village. Taxes that funded public services were paid to Switzerland. Campione had Swiss police, fire, and ambulance services. The town had Swiss postal and dialing codes. Its residents registered and insured their vehicles in Switzerland. Salaries were paid in Swiss Francs. So what’s the problem with this quaint Swiss village? It’s actually part of Italy, not Switzerland.

Campione d’Italia is another town with a long twisted history that starts with a geographical anomaly. As the crow flies, Campione is only 600 meters, or about half a mile, from the border between Switzerland and Italy. However, because of the steep and rugged mountainous terrain in the Alps, one must drive more than 20 km from town to reach the main body of Italy. This is just part of the reason that the town relied on Swiss infrastructure.

The Ancient Romans founded the village during the first century BC, which officially became part of Italy in the year 777. Between 1512 and 1900, Campione had numerous opportunities to become part of Switzerland, but it rejected them each time. Ironically, in 1848, the town petitioned Switzerland for annexation. The Swiss government denied the request over their desire to remain neutral.

Integration into Switzerland

Shortly after Benito Mussolini rose to power in Italy in the 1930s, his regime lost control of the Campione enclave. During that time, residents of Campione rejected Mussolini’s fascism and integrated with Switzerland. Campione remained essentially part of Switzerland until 1 January, 2020, when it formally became part of the EU Customs Territory.

Since its integration into the European Union, its Swiss postal codes have been invalidated and residents are now required to register their vehicles in the Italian Province of Como. Interestingly, calls to everywhere in town except for city hall still use the international dialing code for Switzerland.

4. A 2-for-1 Special: Two American Towns Stranded in Canada

In 1846, the US and Great Britain signed the Oregon Treaty. The treaty established the 49th parallel as the northern border of the United States through the Rocky Mountains. Today, the 49th parallel forms the international border between the US and Canada.

Before signing the treaty, ambassadors from both Britain and the US agreed to survey the coastal area south of Vancouver, British Columbia. Both countries wanted to make sure the 49th parallel did not split any islands off the coast between the two countries.

After the survey, the US agreed to cede the southern end of Vancouver Island to the British. Both countries established the border through the Salish sea between Port Angeles, Washington, and Victoria, British Columbia.

Unfortunately, the surveyors were so focused on the islands that they missed part of the Tsawassan Peninsula that extended south of the 49th parallel near Vancouver.

Point Roberts, Washington

By the time the surveyors realized their mistake, it was too late. The treaty had already been signed. The border had cut off the southern tip of the Tsawassan Peninsula from the rest of the United States. The British government requested that the entire Tsawassan Peninsula should be part of Britain, but the US ultimately rejected the offer. The southern tip of the peninsula remained part of the US.

During the 1858 gold rush, Canadian prospectors established Robert’s Town on the US part of the Tsawassan Peninsula in an effort to avoid paying taxes. The town lasted less than a year, but was ultimately settled by Americans and named Point Roberts. It remained part of the Oregon Territory until the US Government granted Washington State statehood in 1889.

Much like Campione d’Italia, Point Roberts relies on Canadian services and infrastructure. The town’s water comes from Vancouver, and the municipality of Delta, British Columbia provides assistance to the Point Roberts police and fire services when requested. Up until 1988, Point Roberts used British Columbia’s 604 area code, meaning you had to make an international call to reach the rest of the United States.

Elm Point and Northwest Angle, Minnesota

It turns out that Point Roberts wasn’t the only “whoopsie” the treaty negotiators made in 1846. Much like Point Roberts, Elm Point is a tiny strip of land in Manitoba that dips south of the 49th parallel, making it technically part of Minnesota. Thankfully, Elm Point is uninhabited and thus does not have the logistical headaches of Point Roberts.

The US-Canada Border’s Biggest Anomaly

Not far from Elm Point is the largest anomaly on the entire US-Canada border. Minnesota’s Northwest Angle sits north of the 49th parallel and logically should be part of Canada. Due to an inaccurate map of the area, the Americans and the British had agreed to a geographical impossibility when they signed the Oregon Treaty in 1846.

The original treaty established the US-Canada border as running from Lake Superior west through the Rainy River to the northwest corner of Lake of The Woods. From there, it would run due west until it intersected the Mississippi River. It didn’t take long for surveyors to find a couple major problems.

1. The northwest corner of Lake of the Woods is north of the 49th parallel
2. If you go due west from there, you do not intersect the Mississippi River

Due to poor 19th century technology, it took decades to reach an agreement on where the border should be established. Once both Canada and the US were able to make accurate maps of Lake of the Woods, they agreed to run the border from the lake’s originally agreed upon northwest corner due south to the 49th parallel.

In doing so, they sliced off the Northwest Angle from Manitoba and made it part of Minnesota. Both Canada and Great Britain tried several times to buy the land back from the US in the late 1800’s. The US Government rejected every offer, and the Northwest Angle has stood as-is to this day.

5. Visit France on a Short Day Trip from Canada

When you ask about experiencing European or French culture in North America, most people would tell you to head to either Montréal or Québec City. While I have zero qualms against either Montréal or Québec City, why not take it a step further and just take a short day trip to France instead?

Wait, what? A short day trip to France from Canada? Yes, you heard that right. You can get on a ferry in Canada and be in France less than 2 hours later. Only 25 km from Point May, Newfoundland, Canada, you will find the French territory of St. Pierre et Miquelon.

Consider the following excerpt from our exploration of France in the Weird Geography series last summer.

St. Pierre and Miquelon may be small islands, but they carry a stark cultural distinction not just from Newfoundland and Labrador, but to Canada as a whole. When you visit the islands, you’ll experience French food, wine, and music. You’ll pay with Euros, charge your devices with 220 volt plugs, and of course will be speaking French, not English. Finally, St. Pierre and Miquelon are part of France, so don’t forget your passport.

Matt Gove, in Weird Geography: 10 Bizarre and Unusual Facts About France
5 July, 2020

6. Fancy Warmer Weather? Head to South America to Visit France

Nope, we’re not yanking your chain here, either. If the cold, damp, and grey in the Canadian Maritimes don’t suit your fancy, head south. In addition to the Caribbean islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe, French Guiana is rich in both French and Creole culture. It’s wedged between Brazil and Suriname, and it’s part of France, to boot.

French Guiana’s tropical climate is much more attractive, too. Average high temperatures are between 28 and 30°C (82 and 86°F) for 10 months of the year. The territory has never recorded a temperature below 18°C (64°F) either. Most of its population lives on the coast. Interior French Guiana is largely dense, uninhabitable jungle.

Read more about French Guiana in our Weird Geography visit to France.

7. Brits, Want a Holiday on the Mediterranean without Leaving the UK? You Can Do That, Too.

The United Kingdom has a reputation for being grey, chilly, and rainy. However, you can enjoy the spectacular climate and beaches of the Mediterranean Sea without having to leave the UK.

Gibraltar

Gibraltar sits on the southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula, just south of La Línea de la Concepción, Spain. Its name is actually derived from the Arabic term Jabal Tāriq, which means “Mountain of Tariq”. While it doesn’t feel like the rest of United Kingdom, Gibraltar is a melting pot of cultures. You’ll find cultural influences from Spain, the Arab part of northern Africa, Judaism, and even Hinduism. English and Spanish are Gibraltar’s primary spoken languages, but you’ll hear languages from all over the world.

The British captured Gibraltar in 1704. Spain officially ceded the territory in 1713. Unlike places like Llívia or Campione d’Italia, there have been very few squabbles over Gibraltar. It’s been a bit awkward since the UK left the European Union. Thankfully, the EU and the UK are currently negotiating an agreement that would allow Gibraltar to participate in the Schengen Area and prevent a hard border with Spain.

Cyprus

The United Kingdom also has two Sovereign Base Areas on the Island of Cyprus. Both Sovereign Base Areas are heavily restricted and cannot be used for anything other than military purposes. The laws of both Sovereign Base Areas are similar, and in some cases identical to the corresponding Cypriot laws. However, British agencies handle law enforcement and the legal system.

Cyprus has an interesting history since its independence from Britain in 1960. Greece and Turkey immediately began posturing for control of the island. In 1974, the Greek Military executed a coup d’état to unite the island with Greece. Five days later, Turkey invaded Cyprus, setting off months of conflict on the island. By the time order was restored, the island had split in two. Turkey occupied the northeastern half of Cyprus, while Greece occupied the southwestern half.

In response, the United Nations declared a buffer zone between the two sides. After being completely sealed off from each other for 30 years, both sides began to ease border restrictions in 2003. Today, you can cross between the two sides, but you do need a passport. Greece and Turkey have discussed reunification, but those negotiations have all collapsed. You can still see the UN Buffer Zone denoted on Google Maps today.

8. Less than 500 km (300 mi) From Berlin, Germany, You’ll Find…Russia

A seemingly harmless cession of a portion of Germany at the end of World War II landed Russia a port that remains critical to its military and economic success to this day. The city of Kaliningrad is the only Russian port on the Baltic Sea that is ice-free year-round. Without Kaliningrad, the only available Russian ports in the winter would be on the Black Sea, which is less than ideal both militarily and economically.

Here’s the excerpt about Kaliningrad from our Weird Geography exploration of Russia last August.

Formerly part of East Prussia and Germany, the Kaliningrad Oblast (Калининградская область) is an isolated exclave of the Russian Federation sitting between Poland and Lithuania. In January 1945, the Soviet Union invaded and annexed all of East Prussia except for the city of Königsberg. After the Nazis were defeated in 1945, the Germans agreed to cede the city to the Soviets.

In 1946, the Soviets changed the name of Königsberg to Kaliningrad. By 1950, the remaining German population had been forcibly expelled, and Russian replaced German as the oblast’s official language. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the Kaliningrad oblast was designated part of Russia. Kaliningrad has become even more isolated since Poland and Lithuania joined the European Union and significantly tightened their border security.

Matt Gove, in Weird Geography: 10 Bizarre and Unusual Facts About Russia
30 August, 2020

9. Go Island Hopping in Indonesia and Run into…Australia

Australia is not a country you would typically associate with overseas territories. However, it does have two. You’ll find both Christmas Island and the Cocos Islands just off the coast of Indonesia.

Christmas Island has a particularly fascinating history. Europeans first reached the island in 1643, but the British did not formally annex the island until 1888. During World War II, the Japanese became particularly interested in the island’s rich phosphate deposits. Japan took the island by force in 1942. When the Axis powers surrendered at the end of the war, Christmas Island became part of Singapore.

So how did Australia wind up with it? From the end of World War II until 1961, both Singapore and what is currently Malaysia were part of the United Kingdom. The Australian Government requested that the UK transfer sovereignty of Christmas Island from Singapore to Australia. On 1 October, 1958, Christmas Island officially became part of Australia, where it remains to this day.

10. Go Way Off the Grid in Bir Tawil. You Won’t Be in Any Country.

Bir Tawil sits along the border between Egypt and Sudan. It’s the result of a spectacular bungling of language in a treaty the United Kingdom drew up with Egypt and native tribes that inhabit the area in 1902.

At the time of the treaty, the British controlled what is now Sudan. In the intial treaty, Egypt and the UK agreed that the 22nd parallel would form the border between Egypt and Sudan. However, native tribe activity in two triangular areas along the border disrupted those plans.

The primary area in dispute, known as the Hala’ib Traingle is north of the 22nd parallel on the Red Sea. A much smaller area, Bir Tawil, sits south of the 22nd parallel and southwest of the Hala’ib Triangle. You can see both areas marked by the dashed lines in the map below.

An Attempt to Account for Native Tribes Backfires

In an attempt to better reflect the native tribes’ land use, the British redrew the border in November, 1902. They argued that Bir Tawil was grazing land used by a native tribe in Egypt and should become part of Egypt. Additionally, the native inhabitants of the Hala’ib Triangle were much culturally closer to Sudan, so the Hala’ib Triangle should be part of Sudan.

Egypt immediately fired back that the original border that they agreed to (the 22nd parallel) was the actual border. Using the 22nd parallel as the border would place the Hala’ib Triangle in Egypt and Bir Tawil in Sudan.

So what’s the result? You can probably guess.

• Both Egypt and Sudan claim the Hala’ib Triangle
• Neither country claims Bir Tawil

To this day, Bir Tawil remains the only terra nullius, or habitable place on earth not claimed by any recognized government.

So why hasn’t anyone claimed it for 120 years? Mainly because of Bir Tawil’s remoteness and extreme desert climate. Average high temperatures exceed 40°C (104°F) for seven months out of the year. Bir Tawil has measured temperatures above 100°F in every month of the year except December and January.

Conclusion

Whether it’s due to a poor choice of words, outdated technology, or just a bit of luck, countries often pop up where you least expect to see them. Making these discoveries Since many countries still restrict travel due to the COVID-19 pandemic, I hope this at least somewhat satisfies your drive to get out and explore. We’ll be back out adventuring in person soon.

Until then, in the list above, I’m most interested in a day trip to France from Canada and exploring the two Spanish cities on the coast of North Africa. Which countries intrigue you the most?

Top Photo: Welcome Sign at a Mexican Port of Entry
Los Algodones, Baja California, Mexico – December, 2017

The post Weird Geography: 10 Countries You’ll Find in Unexpected Places appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

1. The Current COVID-19 Peak Lines Up Almost Perfectly with Our November, 2020 COVID-19 Forecast.

Recall that on 14 November, 2020, we looked at several reputable COVID-19 models. Based on those models, we created a prediction for the COVID-19 pandemic using the same methodology weather forecasters use. Here is the forecast we made.

– The peak of the winter wave will occur around New Year’s Day (1 January, 2021).

– There will be 320,000 to 400,000 new daily COVID-19 cases in the United States at the peak of the winter wave.

– By next spring, there will be 30 to 50 million total confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States.

Our Official Forecast on 14 November, 2020

So how did we do?

• The current COVID-19 peak occurred on 11 January, 2021 using the 7-day moving average. The United States confirmed just shy of 300,000 new cases on 2 January, 2021, setting the record for most new daily cases in a single day. What was that about the peak of the winter wave occurring around New Year’s Day?
• The 7-day average peaked just under 257,000 daily new cases, with a single day high of 299,087 cases on 2 January. Our analysis and forecast predicted 320,000 new daily cases at the peak.
• There are currently over 25 million total confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States. Given that over 70% of those cases have been confirmed after Election Day (3 November), that forecast of 30 to 50 million cases by spring seems like a pretty safe bet right now.

2. Unlike previous dips in new COVID-19 cases, this peak is not occurring around a major holiday.

Both the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays caused some interesting anomalies in the United States’ daily new case data.

Prior to each holiday, there was a huge excess demand for testing. People wanted to make sure they did not have COVID-19 prior to traveling. The excess demand bumped new daily cases higher than they would have been because more tests were being processed.

During the several days immediately leading up to and following each holiday, people were with their friends, family, and loved ones. Getting tested was far from being on their mind. As a result, fewer tests were being processed, and you see a sharp drop in new daily cases.

The holiday roller coaster is completed after people return home and get tested again to ensure they can safely integrate back into society at home. This surge in demand, coupled with the surge in transmission due to holiday gatherings, results in an upward spike of new cases following each holiday.

You can see the same anomalies in Canada’s COVID-19 data over the holidays. It’s interesting to note that Canadians don’t travel for Thanksgiving anywhere near as much as Americans do. You can see that in the magnitude of the anomalies.

There are no major holidays right now that could artificially lower the new daily case curves in both the United States and Canada. The current decline in cases appears to be happening naturally.

What’s even more encouraging is that Canada is seeing a drop in cases as well. Hospitalizations have leveled off and/or started to decline in many states and provinces in both the US and Canada, which also points to a natural decline.

3. Unlike artificial declines in new COVID-19 cases due to holidays, this peak has lasted much longer and is much better established.

Numbers don’t lie. The sharp artificial drop in new daily cases we saw over the holidays only lasted at most two or three days before turning around and shooting back up. The current sharp drop in new daily cases in the United States has already been going on for 11 days. In Canada, we’re on the 13th straight day of declining COVID-19 cases.

Experts have generally considered patterns in the COVID-19 pandemic to be well-established after they’ve been in place for 14 days straight. If the current trends continue, both the US and Canada will hit that magical 2 week mark early next week.

4. The US is Rolling Out and Scaling Up COVID-19 Vaccines

Unlike the spring and summer waves, COVID-19 vaccines have been approved and are beginning to roll out. It is nothing short of a miracle that these vaccines even exist right now. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the mumps vaccine, which previously held the record for the fastest vaccine development, took four years to create, trial, and deem safe. The COVID-19 vaccine accomplished the same feat in 10 months.

The US is roughly on track right now to hit Joe Biden’s goal of 100 million shots in 100 days with just the two currently approved Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. The US is scaling up distribution of both vaccines as we speak, and there’s help waiting in the wings as well.

There are still 2 vaccines – Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca – that are in the final trial phase and will likely be approved within the next few months. It sounds like the J&J vaccine could be a game changer for scaling up vaccinations.

The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines both require two doses and special ultra-cold storage. On the other hand, the J&J vaccine only requires one shot and can be stored in a standard refrigerator. In addition to being much easier to get it into hard-to-reach areas, you can also immunize twice as many people with it. Talk about a shot in the arm (pun fully intended)! From reports I’ve heard in the news, it sounds like Johnson & Johnson will apply for emergency use authorization within the next month or so.

5. We now have a President who believes in science and actually listens to experts

The Trump administration gave us a master class in how not to respond to a major disaster. They routinely mocked and ignored their own half-assed guidelines without a plan for anything. Common sense precautions became a political statement. The nation’s top infectious disease experts were silenced and instead we were told to inject ourselves with bleach. And then there was my favorite: when you test, you create cases. Facepalm!

With a new Biden administration now formally at the helm, a return to truth, logic, and science is a very welcome sight in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Want to know how much of a difference having leaders that are straight with their people and actually take the pandemic seriously? Have a look at Australia and New Zealand.

The leaders of both Australia and New Zealand used the pandemic as a rallying cry to unite their constituents and came out on Day 1 with a plan to defeat COVID-19. What was the difference? The United States recently recorded a record 4,610 deaths on 12 January alone. In New Zealand, 25 people have died in the entire pandemic. Australia has done pretty good, too. 909 Australians have died of COVID-19 since the pandemic began.

The idea that you can get up here and talk about what you know, what evidence, what the science is, and know that’s it. Let the science speak. It is somewhat of a liberating feeling.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, in a 21 January, 2021 Press Conference

6. Reputable Models Show COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Continuing to Decline Through February, March, and April.

Back in November, we looked at the IHME, the COVID-19 Simulator, and my model. Let’s revisit them all again.

IHME (University of Washington)

The IHME model shows new daily cases, hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing significantly once we get into February. If its forecast verifies, it means that the 11 January peak will have been the peak of the winter wave.

COVID-19 Simulator

Using the current COVID-19 restrictions, the COVID-19 Simulator is in agreement with the IHME model, showing a downward trend of both new daily cases and deaths.

My Model

My COVID-19 model is in agreement with both the IHME and the COVID-19 simulator. It too shows new cases significantly declining though February, March, and April.

One Last Reason to be Optimistic About the Models

In the world of weather forecasting, we base our confidence in the forecasts on two factors.

• Are the models in agreement?
• Are the models stable or consistent from run-to-run?

We’ve looked at the first bullet plenty, but what about the second? Have a look back at the models’ projections in November. All three models have stayed consistent when compared to today’s projections. They’re showing basically the same outcomes today that they were showing back in November. As a result, we can be much more confident in forecasts based on these models, which are heading in the right direction.

7. Believe it or not, there is a positive silver lining to the US having the most cases in the world by far.

Any guesses as to what that may be? No? Before we jump in, I want to make it perfectly clear that this does not underscore or make light of the nearly 25 million people who have been infected or the 410,000-plus Americans who have died from COVID-19. Those numbers are beyond horrific and there is no excuse whatsoever for why or how we let those numbers get so high.

That being said, there is one silver lining to having so many people become infected in the US. Everyone who has been infected with COVID-19 has at least some natural immunity to the virus. As a result, it means the US has to vaccinate fewer susceptible people to reach herd immunity. This is especially critical given how much vaccine skepticism and hesitancy exists in the US.

Consider the following calculation. Let’s say for the sake of this argument, the US has 30 to 35 million confirmed infections by late spring. That’s roughly 10% of its total population of 330 million who already have some natural immunity.

In this scenario, to reach the 70 to 80 percent threshold for herd immunity, you only need to vaccinate 60 to 70 percent of the population. Furthermore, don’t forget that the true number of COVID-19 cases in the US is likely much higher than the number of confirmed positive tests. That only drives the number of people needing to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity even lower.

However, this is in no circumstance whatsoever a reason to not get the vaccine. Go get your shot as soon as you’re eligible.

A Final Word of Caution About the COVID-19 Peak

While there is plenty of optimism in this outlook, we mustn’t get ahead of ourselves. The pandemic is far from over and there are plenty of opportunities for things to go awry.

• The fact that we’ve hit a peak in the COVID-19 pandemic and the models show that we’ve peaked is by no means a guarantee that we have actually hit the peak.
• While cases may have peaked, hospitalizations and deaths likely have not. If in fact 11 January was the case peak, COVID-19 hospitalizations should peak within the next week or so and deaths should peak in early February.
• There are plenty of external forces that can send cases rising again that the models have little to no way to accurately predict.
  • Events like the Washington, DC riots of 6 January, 2021
• More transmissible mutant strains of COVID-19 will likely become dominant in the US. The increased transmissibility or contagiousness can easily nullify the downward trend.
• Testing protocols will change as we shift from the Trump administration to the Biden administration. While these changes will not affect overall trends and patterns, they can cause anomalies in the data.

Conclusion

For the first time in months, there are signs for hope and optimism in the United States’ fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Even if we have actually hit the peak of the COVID-19 winter wave, we cannot let up in our fight. The pandemic is far from over, and there are still months to go before the end of the current winter wave. We all have a job to do to end the pandemic. Stay the course, do your job, and we’ll be back to normal before we know it.

Top Photo: Morning Sun Breaks over the McDowell-Sonoran Preserve
Scottsdale, Arizona – October, 2017

The post COVID-19 News: 7 Reasons to Be Optimistic America Has Peaked appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Recent Model Performance

Why am I so concerned? First, my coronavirus model is predicting rather apocalyptic numbers across several states. Second, the model has been deadly accurate with its projections since the beginning of July. My coronavirus model forecasts case counts for the 50 US States and 6 Canadian Provinces at 2 weeks and 1 month from the date of the model run.

A Troubling Precursor: Melbourne, Australia

The most alarming peek into the crystal ball is the significant outbreak of COVID-19 over the 2020 winter in Melbourne, Australia. Starting in late June, a cluster of cases emerged and rapidly spread through the city, peaking in early August before finally tapering off in late September.

Australian officials deemed the likely cause of the outbreak to be people letting their guard down after Australia’s strict lockdown in April. Does that sound familiar to you?

You know what’s even more concerning about this outbreak, in the context of the United States and Canada? Australia had its outbreak well under control throughout late fall and into the start of winter. The entire country averaged less than 10 new cases per day in early and mid-June. Despite officials putting Melbourne into a very strict lockdown and sealing the entire State of Victoria off from the rest of the country, cases spiked to about 800 per day at their peak in early August, an increase of 2 orders of magnitude, or about 100-fold.

Diving into the Numbers

Let’s do a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation to extrapolate Australia’s outbreak to the United States and Canada. While Australia averaged about 8 new cases per day heading into its winter, the United States is currently averaging 45,000 new cases per day, and Canada is averaging 2,000.

Keep in mind, we’ve still got 2 months to go before the start of our winter in December. It’s also unlikely that either the US or Canada will see the same strict lockdowns and restrictions that were implemented in Victoria.

45,000 * 100 = 4,500,000

2,000 * 100 = 200,000

Come on, there’s no way this will actually happen, right? I sure hope not. It’s possible, though not very likely. Remember that everyone said that the US would get a reprieve from the pandemic over the summer, only to see cases spike to 80,000 per day across the Sun Belt.

General Outlook for This Fall and Winter

In many of the states and provinces listed below, you likely will not see the huge spikes like you saw previously in places like New York City, Miami, Melbourne, Los Angeles, and Houston. Instead, it will be a much slower increase due to the lower population density in these states, but the model is showing the potential for the virus to rip through a significant portion of their populations.

In the plots below, I have extended the coronavirus model run out further than one month. Please keep in mind that its accuracy diminishes significantly past the one month mark.

Montana

Montana successfully suppressed the coronavirus over the spring and summer. It is now one of many states in the north-central United States staring down a substantial outbreak of COVID-19. This outbreak will feel much different than the outbreaks across the northeast and the Sun Belt earlier this year.

Instead of a massive and rapid spike, the disease will spread much slower through the community. However, the surge will likely last longer and impact a larger portion of the population than in more populous states.

Previous outbreaks across the northeast and the Sun Belt lasted about 2 to 3 months. Montana’s outbreak will likely last 6 to 8 months due to lower transmission rates. In the worst case scenario, the model expects about 30% of Montanans to come down with COVID-19.

North Dakota

North Dakota has by far the highest average number of new cases per capita for any state since the pandemic began, a distinction that formerly belonged to Arizona. At the peak of its summer spike, Arizona saw a maximum 7-day average of about 510 new cases per million people. North Dakota has seen that number as high as 659 within the past two weeks. The model’s current worst case scenario shows over 60% of North Dakotans contracting COVID-19 by the end of the pandemic.

Ontario

The current situation in Ontario is quite fascinating. Over the past few weeks, cases have surged, showing signs of going into a full-blown outbreak, but each time you’ve managed to pull it back from the precipice. Just how long you can keep it up is up to you. There’s still time to prevent a spike.

I am particularly concerned about the heavily populated areas along the Highway 401 corridor, as well as the City of Ottawa, as we get deeper into the fall. It won’t take much to tip things over the edge and look a lot more like neighboring Québec.

Québec

Québec has been Canada’s epicenter for the majority of the pandemic. After successfully flattening the curve throughout the summer, cases are not just trending upwards as people are driven indoors, they’re accelerating upward. Though I don’t believe any outbreak in Québec will be as bad as ones in the US, without any action, you’ll likely be at 250,000 to 300,000 cases by March, 2021.

Le Québec a été l’epicentre du Canada pour la plupart de la pandémie. Après avoir réussi à aplatir la courbe pendant tout l’été, les cas ne sont pas seulement à la hausse quand tout le monde vient à l’intérieur, ils accélèrent à la hausse. Je ne crois pas qu’une éclosion au Québec sera aussi grave que celles aux États-Unis, mais sans aucune action, vous aurez probablement entre 250,000 et 300,000 cas en mars, 2021.

South Dakota

North Dakota may own the highest average number of new cases per capita, but South Dakota just shattered all previous records for the largest single day increase in new cases per capita. Two days ago, South Dakota saw a single-day increase of 1,141 new cases per million people.

COVID-19 is considered under control when that number drops below 50 new cases per million people per day. Like North Dakota, the model’s worst case scenario shows over 60% of South Dakotans contracting COVID-19. That’s up from about 11% just a few weeks ago.

Utah

Cases in Utah have been smoldering throughout the spring and summer, but are starting to burn after a significant acceleration in the rate of spread that started in early September. Without action, I expect that the rate of spread in Utah will not just continue, it will also accelerate.

While it’s unlikely you’ll see a New York-type spike, a surge similar to the one you saw in neighboring Arizona over the summer is certainly possible. Hospital and ICU bed usage is already near record highs. The coronavirus model is currently forecasting that over 12% of Utah’s population could be infected by the end of the pandemic, so you should be taking immediate action to flatten the curve.

West Virginia

West Virginia is currently in a situation similar to Utah’s, as transmission rates have recently begun to accelerate. The model is showing the potential for a significant outbreak of cases, but the window to prevent such a scenario is till open.

Under the current trajectory, it’s unlikely West Virginia will see a New York or Florida-like spike. The hospital system can handle the current surge, but the virus slowly ripping through the population can still do a lot of damage. The latest model runs show the current surge peaking in early November, infecting at most about 8% of the population.

Wisconsin

Of all the states and provinces on this list, I am most concerned about Wisconsin. With a significant outbreak of cases already underway, exponential growth is also accelerating.

Just a couple of weeks ago, the model predicted that only 7% of Wisconsin’s population could become infected. That number has jumped to 25% with the latest model run. At the peak of Florida’s outbreak this summer, the model never predicted more than 9% of Floridians could contract COVID-19.

So why am I so concerned with Wisconsin when both of the Dakotas are showing that up to 60% of their populations could possibly be infected?

• With 5.9 million residents, Wisconsin’s population is over 3.5 times larger than the populations of North Dakota (760,000) and South Dakota (885,000) combined.
• Wisconsin’s population centers are larger and denser than anywhere in the Dakotas. The coronavirus spreads much easier in those areas.
• Much of Wisconsin’s population lives in close proximity to one of the nation’s largest cities. Chicago is a hub of economic activity, transport, travel, and much more.
  • Downtown Chicago sits just 85 km (50 mi) from the Wisconsin State Line, and 150 km (93 mi) from Milwaukee.
  • If Wisconsin’s outbreak reaches Chicago, it could spread rapidly to other parts of the United States and the world.

Wyoming

Wyoming is in the same boat as the Dakotas. It’s a low population and low population density state facing a massive, yet slow outbreak of cases. To date, Wyoming’s coronavirus trajectory has been almost identical to South Dakota’s, with a rapid acceleration in transmission rate over the past month or so.

In early September, the model’s worst-case scenarios predicted that about 4% of Wyoming’s population could become infected with COVID-19. Over the past four to five weeks, I have watched that number rapidly rise. As of yesterday’s model run, it had risen to 50%, up from 35% just the week before. It is showing no signs of slowing down.

Other States That Should Be On Alert

After ripping through the northeast and the Sun Belt, the United States’ epicenter has set its sights on the Midwest and the Mississippi River Valley. These outbreaks will now be exacerbated as cooler weather drives people indoors. There is still time to take action to prevent clusters and surges, but these states should be on high alert.

• Arkansas
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Kentucky
• Minnesota
• Missouri
• Nebraska
• Oklahoma

Additionally, any state or province with large population centers in the northern US or southern Canada should be on high alert for surges in coronavirus. Cool fall weather driving people indoors is already seeding upticks in cases in many of the following states and provinces.

• Alberta
• British Columbia
• Colorado
• Indiana
• Illinois
• Manitoba
• Massachusetts
• Michigan
• New Jersey
• New York
• Pennsylvania
• Ohio
• Washington – both Washington State and the District of Columbia

If you live in the southern half of the US, you are by no means out of the woods. This wave will reach you when cooler weather arrives later this fall. Take the time now to plan and prepare to keep yourself, your loved ones, and your fellow citizens safe.

Conclusion

Infectious disease experts have been warning us since April about the likelihood of a significant wave of coronavirus throughout the fall and winter months. Looking at preliminary data, coupled with predictions from several coronavirus models, it’s becoming increasingly clear that experts’ warnings are coming to fruition and that fall and winter wave may already be underway. Wash your hands often, wear your mask in public, and keep your distance from others, and we’ll get through this together.

Top Photo: View of the Summer Monsoon from a Lookout atop the Mogollon Rim
Payson, Arizona – July, 2017

The post My Coronavirus Model is Confirming Dire Warnings in These 9 States appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

All models, regardless of what they are forecasting, use past data and assumptions to make future projections. This is where that saying “models are only as good as the assumptions they make” comes from. Many models, including those well outside of the realm of COVID-19, try to do some form of “fitting the curve” to existing data and then use assumptions, known facts, and the best-fit curve to make projections.

Turns out there is more than one way to best fit the curve.

It turns out that two possible “best fit” scenarios exist when you apply this “best fitting” methodology to COVID-19. I’ll call them Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. You can see them below in model forecasts for the United States.

• The thick blue line is the actual COVID-19 case data, and the multi-colored thin lines are the model projections.
• The top plot in each scenario shows the total or cumulative case counts.
• The bottom plot in each scenario shows the new cases reported each day.

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

So what causes the drastic swings in projected cases and deaths? It’s simply the model flipping from Scenario 1 to Scenario 2 and vice-versa. Even the simple model I have been running has flip-flopped between the two scenarios. Here’s what happened with my model. The same thing likely happened with the model that’s been in the headlines.

How Models Switch Between Scenarios

1. At the beginning of the outbreak, the model has very little data to work with, so you assume the worst-case scenario (Scenario 2). Remember, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. People are always much more receptive to natural disaster projections when a worst-case scenario improves, as opposed to the other way around.
2. As governments implement social distancing restrictions, such as bans on large gatherings, business closures, and stay-at-home orders, the model interprets the resulting “flattening of the curve” as approaching the top of the total cases (top plot in each above scenario) curve, regardless of whether or not you are actually leveling off. As a result, it flips to Scenario 1. Projected case and death counts plummet overnight.
3. At some point, you’ll hit a “floor”, where you can’t flatten the curve any more, and the curve will resume its natural trajectory, albeit at a lower transmission rate. Once that floor is reached, one of two things will happen:
   • If you are actually at the top of the total cases curve, the total case count will stay flat and the model will stick with Scenario 1.
   • If you haven’t reached the top of the total cases curve, the increase in case counts will start to accelerate again once you hit that “floor.” That increase accelerates even further as states begin to reopen. If that rate of increase increase is high enough or a significant percentage of the population is still susceptible to the virus, the model will flip back to Scenario 2, causing projected case and death counts to soar very rapidly.

A Timeline of Coronavirus Model Flip-Flops

So how do the numbers work out? The model that’s been in the news has projected death totals for the entire United States by early August. The timeline of its projections is as follows.

• Late March: Projected 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. Most Stay-at-Home orders were issued during this time frame.
• Mid-April: The model flips to Scenario 1 and projected deaths quickly plummet to 60,000. This is also the same time frame where the model can start detecting the curve flattening due to the Stay-at-Home orders in the data.
• Late April: Many states begin to loosen social distancing restrictions and start reopening their economies.
• May 4: The model flips back to Scenario 2, and projected deaths rapidly jump to 135,000.

So can we look at some real-world model outputs showing Scenario 1 states versus Scenario 2 states? You bet. The below images are from this morning’s run of my model. Keep in mind that a state being in one scenario today does not necessarily mean it won’t flip over to the other scenario in the next model run. Click on any image to enlarge it.

Scenario 1 States

States That Showed Signs Of Leveling Off, But Flipped Back to Scenario 2

So what can we take out of this? Don’t pin your hopes and expectations on just one model because models are wrong way more often than they’re right. There is a reason hurricane forecasters use spaghetti plots. To be able to confidently make any kind of predictions from models, you need to look at multiple models. If the models are in agreement and are stable from run to run, you will have much more confidence in your prediction than if they are all over the place and swing wildly from run to run, which is what we’re currently seeing with COVID-19.

I expect with so much uncertainty of what will happen as states reopen, model runs will be all over the place over at least the next two to three weeks. What does that mean as far as what will actually happen? Only time will tell. I’m certainly rooting for Scenario 1.

Top Photo: Lava Flows at El Pinacate Biosphere Reserve – Los Norteños, Sonora, Mexico – July, 2017

The post Coronavirus Model Swings: A Tale of Two Scenarios appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I only ran the models out until early May because we need to focus on what’s going to happen in the next two to three weeks, not what’s going to be happening several months in the future. Additionally, model forecasts get less accurate the further into the future you go. This run assumes current social distancing restrictions remain in place through mid-May and does not account for any additional surges or waves of the virus that may occur later this spring, this summer, or this fall.

Don’t forget, you can always get more information about the model and view detailed case data on my COVID-19 Dashboard. Additionally, I will write up a separate post about the mathematics, equations, and methodologies used in my coronavirus model, which I’m hoping to get posted in the next day or two. Stay tuned for additional discussions about each hot zone as more data comes in.

Alberta

Arizona

British Columbia

California

Connecticut

Florida

Georgia

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

Oklahoma

Ontario

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Québec

Rhode Island

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

U.S. Virgin Islands

Washington (State)

After several requests, I updated this post on 16 April, 2020 to include additional states and provinces, bringing the total to 26 plots instead of 24.

Top Photo: Palo Duro Canyon State Park – Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post A Look at the Best-Fit COVID-19 Model Curves for 24 Key States and Provinces appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Overview of SIR Model Output

Each city has four plots. The top row is the “working” model output, with the model curve best fit to the actual data. The bottom row is an experimental model output showing the effect of social distancing. In the “working” model runs on the top row, there are 5 lines on each plot. The middle line is the R Naught value that was reverse-engineered by fitting the model output to the actual data, and there are two lines on each side of the best-fit line showing different R Naught values in steps of 0.2.

Note: The y-axis on some of the experimental social distancing plots showing the total case count (bottom right plot for each city) is mislabeled. It should read “Total Cases”, not “Number of Infected”.

Finally, don’t forget that the plots below assume the R Naught values and the amount of social distancing remains constant throughout the entire time series. In reality, additional social distancing restrictions will dampen the curve and shift it to the right, while removing social distancing restrictions will cause the curve to accelerate and shift to the left.

Confidence in SIR Model Predictions

My confidence level in the “working”/top row model outputs is as follows:

• Predicting the apex of the outbreak: medium-high to high. The curves should at least be “in the ballpark.”
• Predicting the total number of cases: low to very low. With how fast things are changing right now and how fast new data is coming in, we just don’t know at this point. My gut feeling is that the case count projections in these model runs are likely high overall, but from a public health perspective, I would much rather have the model overestimate case counts than underestimate them.

Plots are in alphabetical order by city, with a table of additional cities at the bottom. Click on any plot to view it full size.

Boston, Massachusetts

Chicago, Illinois

Detroit, Michigan

Los Angeles, California

Montréal, Québec

New Orleans, Louisiana

New York, New York

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Ottawa, Ontario

Portland, Oregon

Phoenix, Arizona

San Francisco, California

Tampa, Florida

Toronto, Ontario

SIR Model Outputs for Additional Cities

Please note that this table contains outputs of just this single model run and does not necessarily reflect what my actual predictions are. I will be putting this table on my COVID-19 Pandemic Tracker later this week and regularly updating it there.

Data points I’m skeptical of in this output (with some comments):

• Chicago, IL: Case count is likely overestimated. I’m not sure why, but the most likely reason is good social distancing.
• Los Angeles, CA: Case count is likely overestimated due to California being better at social distancing than what was input into the model
• Seattle, WA: Peak date is incorrect due to the State of Washington’s 100th case occurring before John’s Hopkins began breaking down data by state.
• Washington, DC: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve
• Winnipeg, MB: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve

The post Complete Revised SIR Model Forecasts (8 April): USA and Canada appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Access the Haskell Free Library From Either the US or Canada

Like Rue Canusa, the rules are simple. You can enter the library from either the US or Canada, but you must return to the country you entered from. You can move freely inside the library, as if the border was not there. There is no customs checkpoint to go into the library, as there is no border crossing there. If you need to formally cross the border, there two ports of entry within about half a kilometer of the library.

While there is parking on both sides of the border, the only entrance into the library is from the US. If you come from Canada, you must stay on the sidewalk and go directly to the front door. There is a US Border Patrol agent just outside the library who can help you if you need anything.

The library is completely bilingual, with books in both English and French. They also have French-speaking and English-speaking librarians. When you walk into the library, one of the first things you’ll notice is the black line across the floor. That black line is the international border.

For a small space, the library had an impressive choice of books, especially when you consider that the books are in both English and French. Genres ranged from children’s books to young adult novels to many different kinds of fiction and non-fiction.

A Look At the Border Near the Haskell Free Library

Before jumping in to look at the border, take a step back and think of all of the fences, barriers, razor wire, and other deterrents at the US-Mexico border to discourage illegal crossings. If that’s one end of the spectrum, the border at the library would be the opposite end of the spectrum. Here, the US-Canada border is protected by … cue the drumroll …

… a row of flower pots.

While you may be tempted to laugh, this picture is an ode to the simpler times in the early-to-mid 20th century. As you drive through both Derby Line and Stanstead, you will see plenty of surface streets like the one seen in the picture that cross the international border and link the two towns.

An Ode to a Simpler Time

You could pass freely between the two towns before both countries tightened border security. Today, all of those streets now have fences, gates, or in this case, flower pots, across the road. It’s now highly illegal now to cross the border anywhere other than an official port of entry. If you’re caught illegally crossing the border now, you may face fines, imprisonment, deportation, and/or being barred from entering the country for a minimum of 5 years. Don’t even think about doing it.

Here are a few more photos of the border near the library.

The Final Stretch

As I get on Interstate 91 to head south, it finally starts to set in that this incredible adventure is coming to a close. I found truly fitting that with my history of chasing storms in Oklahoma, I had to tiptoe my way through severe thunderstorms and Tornado Warnings as I made my way through New Hampshire and Massachusetts. I am happy to report that I made it safely to my parent’s house in Massachusetts without incident from the severe weather.

This is not a trip that will be forgotten anytime soon, but I’m looking forward to spending time with my family and then gearing up for the “business” part of the trip. I’ll be loading up a trailer with the rest of my stuff that my mom and dad still have and hauling it back to Arizona. Here are some final numbers from the trip:

• Total Distance: 5,587.3 km
• Total Driving Time: 58 hrs, 4 mins
• Countries Visited: 3
• States/Provinces Visited: 15
  • Mexico: 1 (Sonora)
  • USA: 12 (AZ, NM, TX, OK, MO, IL, IN, OH, MI, VT, NH, MA)
  • Canada: 2 (Ontario, Québec)
• Duration of Trip: 11 Days

The post Road Trip 2019: Haskell Free Library and Opera House appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.