Why Should You Visit Los Algodones?

As one of the top medical tourist destinations in the world, Los Algodones is a truly unique border town experience. With over 400 dentists packed into a four square block area, it has earned its nickname, Molar City. With dental procedures costing about 10-20% what the do in the United States, both Americans and Canadians flock to Los Algodones year round. While it’s most famous for its dentists, Los Algodones also has one of the highest concentrations of eye doctors and optometrists in the world.

If you’re not into the medical tourism, there’s still plenty of things to do in Los Algodones. You can buy handcrafted goods from the street vendors, eat some delicious Mexican food, and take home the obligatory bottle of tequila. While it’s certainly not as picturesque as places like Puerto Peñasco or the coastal destinations of Baja California and Sonora, rest assured that you’ll have a safe, fun, and memorable time in Los Algodones.

Getting to Los Algodones from California, Arizona, and Nevada

Los Algodones sits in the far northeast corner of the State of Baja California, just west of Yuma, Arizona. You can easily get there from the east or west via Interstate 8, or from the north via US-95.

To get to the border crossing into Los Algodones, take Exit 166 in California off of I-8. Turn south onto CA-186. After about a mile (1.6 km), you’ll reach the border. I recommend parking in the Quechan lot on the US side of the border. The Quechan parking lot has remained open during the COVID-19 pandemic, and still costs $6 for the day to park there. You can drive into Mexico if you wish, but the streets of Los Algodones are small and busy, and parking can be very limited there.

Are There COVID-19 Protocols Crossing the Border into Los Algodones, Mexico?

Mexico has had some of the loosest border restrictions in the world since the pandemic began. As a result, crossing into Los Algodones felt eerily like pre-COVID times. You walk from the parking lot through the turnstile gate, and just walk right into Mexico. There were a few members of the Mexican military stationed near the border watching people enter, but they were not stopping anyone.

I did not have to pass through any checkpoints, temperature checks, or anything else related to COVID-19 entering Los Algodones, Mexico on foot. You do not need to show proof of vaccination or negative test. However, both the U.S. Federal Government and the Government of Canada strongly recommend that their citizens be fully vaccinated before traveling to Mexico. You may be subject to additional COVID-19 related screenings if you cross into Mexico in your vehicle.

Stay Safe from COVID-19 While Enjoying Los Algodones

Because nearly all of the Los Algodones experience is outdoors in the open air, you can stay safe from COVID-19 with nothing more than a little common sense. I visited Los Algodones during the explosion of the omicron variant at the end of 2021. Not once did I feel unsafe from COVID-19 during my visit.

Wear a Mask

Unlike much of the United States, the State of Baja California requires that you wear a face mask while inside any building that’s open to the public. Masks are not required outdoors. However, you may find the streets of Algodones to be small, cramped, and crowded. As a result, I recommend that you wear a mask if you’re in a crowded area, even if you’re outside. This is especially true if you’re visiting during the ongoing omicron spike.

So just how strictly are the mask mandates enforced? It depends on exactly where you are. Many of the liquor stores, pharmacies, and indoor restaurants will not let you in without one. On the other hand, the street vendors did not really seem to care whether or not people were masked. But then again, masks are not required outdoors, which is where most of the street vendors operate. I did not go into any of the dental facilities, but my understanding is that they are the strictest at enforcing mask requirements.

Keep Your Distance

While the government mandated social distancing restrictions in Los Algodones have been lifted, you should still use common sense when out in public. If you see somewhere that’s really crowded, circle around to something else and see if the crowds clear out. People are pretty constantly on the move in Algodones, so it usually doesn’t take long for a busy area to thin out a bit.

If you do find yourself in an area that enforces social distancing, Mexico uses the same 6 feet or 2 meters that the United States and Canada use. During my visit to Los Algodones, I saw a couple signs for social distancing. Not surprisingly, they appeared to be leftover from earlier in the pandemic that were never taken down. Nobody was enforcing them.

Sanitize Your Hands

During my visit to Los Algodones during COVID-19, everywhere felt very, very clean. In fact, the town felt cleaner that it did during any of my previous visits prior to the pandemic. Hand sanitizing stations are widely available throughout town, and you can carry your own sanitizer back and forth across the border. U.S. Customs and Border Protection does not put any restrictions on hand sanitizer the way the TSA does.

Support Los Algodones’ Local Economy

As a small business owner, I’m a big proponent of supporting small businesses and your local economy. I’d much rather spend my money at a local store and keep the money locally than have it wind up lining the pockets of a rich CEO on the other side of the country. And that local economy is exactly what makes Los Algodones so special and so unique. Best of all, you can still enjoy all of the same experiences that you would prior to the pandemic. All while keeping your risk level to a minimum. As I mentioned earlier, I did not feel at significant risk of COVID-19 while I was there.

• Eat at restaurants. Nearly all of them are outdoors and open air.
• Shop from the street vendors, liquor stores, and pharmacies. None of them appear to have taken any serious economic hits from the pandemic. In fact, there were more street vendors in December, 2021 than I ever remember.
• Visit the dentist and get your teeth cleaned. Just make sure to do your homework before hand to ensure you’re choosing a reputable practice.

Returning to the United States

While not much has changed entering Mexico, you will notice some changes to the process for re-entering the United States because of the pandemic. You still line up in the same place you always do, but the line no longer snakes around the fence into the customs hall. Instead, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) stops the front of the line right where you step from Mexico into the United States. When you reach the front of the line, a CBP agent will verify you have the proper documents to enter. They will then send you to the customs hall in small groups. There is plenty of shade available while you’re waiting in line. However, you may want to bring a water bottle if it’s a hot day.

Once you reach the customs hall, you must wait outside until it’s your turn to go through. Once inside, the process to clear customs goes quick. I was in and out in less than two minutes.

Federal Mask Requirements in the United States

Because the customs hall is a federal facility, you are required to wear a mask while inside it. Ironically, the U.S. Government has started taking pictures of everyone entering the country to verify their identity. As a result, the first thing the CBP agent will ask you to do is take off your mask. If you’re a U.S. citizen, they will delete your photo as soon as they verify your identity. You can always request an alternative method to verify your identity if you’re uncomfortable having your picture taken.

Proof of COVID-19 Vaccination or Negative Test

As far as COVID-19 related documentation goes, you do not need much to cross the land border. In fact, U.S. citizens do not need any documentation. You do not need to present proof of a negative test to enter the United States at a land border, as the testing requirement only applies if you’re arriving by air.

However, if you are not a U.S. citizen, you will need to show proof of full vaccination. The U.S. currently accepts any vaccine that either the CDC or the World Health Organization has approved. At the time I’m writing this, the U.S. does not include booster shots in their definition of fully vaccinated, but that will likely change at some point in the next several months.

Don’t Forget to Declare Everything You’re Bringing Back from Mexico

Finally, you still need to declare everything you’re bringing back from Mexico. Failing to declare an item can lead to hefty fines, penalties, and even jail time. Don’t even think about doing it.

Conclusion

Despite the explosion in COVID-19 cases due to the omicron variant, you can still have a fun, safe, and enjoyable time in Los Algodones. We know so much more about the virus now that we did even just a year ago. With medical tourism rendering a lot of its services essential, Los Algodones seems to be thriving better now than ever before. Be smart, know the limits for your comfort and risk levels for being around others in a pandemic, and you’re bound to have a great time.

I’ll be producing a video of this guide soon, and it will be posted here once it’s done. Have you visited Los Algodones since the pandemic began? Leave your story in the comments below. Don’t let the pandemic be an excuse not to go experience one of the most unique border destinations in the world.

The post How To Have A Safe And Successful Visit To Los Algodones, Mexico During The COVID-19 Pandemic appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

1. A country announces they have discovered a new variant
2. Experts speculate that this is the variant that will evade vaccines
3. Everyone freaks out and panics for a few weeks
4. Data proves that vaccines still provide adequate protection against the variant
5. You see a wave of the variant sweep through many countries
6. Life goes on

With the omicron variant of COVID, most countries are currently in the early stages of step 5. However, there are still two big unknowns: how big will the wave be, and how quickly will it surge?

The Omicron Surge Will Resemble the COVID Spike in India From the Delta Variant

Remember how highly contagious the Delta Variant is? As you can probably guess, the Omicron Variant must be significantly more contagious in order to out-compete Delta. And initial data shows that it is. As a result, Omicron will spread much faster, making the spike taller. But there’s a silver lining: it will come and go quickly. Think of it coming through like a tornado instead of a hurricane. Recall the COVID spike in India from the Delta Variant.

Because Omicron is more contagious than Delta, that spike will be taller, but last shorter. And don’t forget to account for population. With nearly 1.4 billion people, India is the second most populous country in the world. Smaller populations in just about every other country will result in both a shorter and less severe spike. In an Omicron wave, the United States is the only country that has the potential to come anywhere remotely close to the 400,000 daily cases that India saw in their Delta spike. And I think even that is highly unlikely.

COVID Cases from the Omicron Variant Have Already Peaked in Some Countries

Yes, you read that right. The Omicron wave has already peaked in some countries. After South Africa first identified Omicron in late November, health officials quickly contact traced cases back to both Germany and the Netherlands. And guess what? New Omicron cases are now falling in all three countries.

Omicron has obviously spread far beyond those three countries. However, I expect any Omicron surges in other countries will resemble the time series above.

A Word of Caution About South Africa’s Demographics

South Africa has one of the most advanced and sophisticated health science programs in the world. There is nothing wrong with data coming out of South Africa. In fact, I trust their data 100%. The issue lies primarily in South Africa’s age demographics, which heavily skew towards younger people. Just 5.5% of South Africans are over 65. That’s a stark contrast to 17% in the United States, 16% in Canada, and 21% in the European Union. That’s why health officials originally cautioned about reports of omicron in South Africa being primarily mild. Thankfully, data from the European Union seems to confirm that omicron is less severe than Delta.

Additionally, don’t forget that South Africa’s location in the Southern Hemisphere means that they are heading into summer right now. Omicron is so contagious that summer vs winter may not make any significant difference anymore. However, data since the start of the pandemic has repeatedly shown that surges are worse in the winter season, regardless of which hemisphere you live in.

I Believe the Omicron Variant Originated in Europe, Not Africa

Just because South Africa discovered the Omicron variant doesn’t necessarily mean that it originated there. And after looking at the data, I believe that Omicron actually originated in Europe and was then brought to South Africa, not the other way around.

First, let’s recall the new daily COVID cases from Germany, the Netherlands, and South Africa we just looked at in the previous section.

What jumps out at me right away? The slope of the upward side of the omicron spike in late 2021 is identical in all three countries. While it’s not definitive proof, it’s likely that the same variant caused all three surges. And we know for certain that Omicron caused the surge in South Africa. In addition, Notice how the spike starts earlier in both Germany (black) and the Netherlands (red) earlier than it does in South Africa (green). We’ll circle back to this in a sec.

Second, look at how Omicron spread in South Africa. The first clusters emerged in Gauteng Province, which is mostly comprised of the City of Johannesburg. And do you know what’s in Johannesburg? South Africa’s largest international airport. Nearly all international flights in and out of the country go through Johannesburg. As Omicron spread throughout the country, the worst of the outbreak remained in Gauteng. Interestingly, Gauteng was also the first province in South Africa to reach the peak of the Omicron outbreak.

Botswana Contact Traces Omicron Back to Europe…Before Any Evidence of it Appeared in Africa

After popping up in South Africa, Omicron quickly jumped the border into neighboring Botswana. With the help of the South African Health Ministry, the Federal Government of Botswana contact traced omicron cases back to the Netherlands as early as 8 November. And it may have been in Germany earlier than that.

Furthermore, after extensive contact tracing, neither Botswana nor South Africa could find any evidence of the omicron variant in Africa prior to 15 November. If it was in Europe as early as 8 November, but didn’t appear in Africa until the 15th, how could it have originated in Africa? For reference, South Africa announced the discovery of Omicron on 26 November.

Timing of the Omicron Wave Lines Up Perfectly with it Originating in Europe

To prevent confusion, let’s have a look at new daily Covid cases in just Germany. The start of Germany’s Omicron spike lines up perfectly with Botswana’s contact tracing of Omicron back to the Netherlands on 8 November. Germany’s uneven uptick in cases in late October is likely from the Delta Variant.

Repeat the process for the Netherlands and you get the same perfectly-aligned timing.

Interestingly, the data out of both South Africa and Botswana seem to confirm the contact tracing that Omicron was not present in Africa prior to 15 November. Unlike Germany and the Netherlands, South Africa’s Omicron spike did not start until after they announced they had discovered Omicron on 26 November.

So is this definitive proof that Omicron originated in Europe? Most certainly not. However, it does illustrate how ineffective travel bans are in stopping COVID-19. If my theory is true, banning travel from southern Africa would have done absolutely nothing to stop the Omicron variant if it originated and had already taken hold in Europe.

What Will the Omicron Spike Look Like in the United States, Canada, and Great Britain?

All three countries will see something similar to what India saw with Delta, or what Germany, the Netherlands, and South Africa saw with Omicron. The million dollar question is how big will the spike get, and how long will it last?

To answer those questions, let’s look where each country stands right now. All three countries have started spiking from Omicron. The United States currently has the highest new daily case loads, and as a result, will likely get hit the hardest. The UK is experiencing the biggest spike, while Canada is in the best shape of the three.

For what to expect, let’s turn to the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and and Evaluation (IHME) model.

As expected, I tend to agree with the IHME’s most likely projections. I think both the Universal Masks case as well as the worst-case scenario are both highly unlikely. Holiday gatherings may slightly increase the peak daily cases as well as push the peak date shortly into the future.

We Are Much Better Prepared for Omicron than Any Previous Variant of COVID

Despite all of the doom and gloom predictions, the world is much better prepared for Omicron than any previous variant. First, and foremost, we still have highly effective vaccines. Yes, their effectiveness took a hit, but go back to the Fall of 2020. As companies raced to develop vaccines, most infectious disease experts said that vaccine effectiveness of 50-60% would be a major victory. After a booster shot, both Pfizer and Moderna are reporting 70-75% effectiveness against Omicron.

Furthermore, many more people have immunity after the Delta wave. Through both vaccinations and natural immunity, the pool of susceptible people is much smaller than previous variants had, and that pool keeps shrinking every day. Combined with the highly infectious nature of Omicron, the wave will be over before you know it.

In addition, antiviral treatments are becoming more effective and more widely available. In fact, some of the antivirals are not expected to lose any effectiveness because they don’t target the virus’ spike protein, which is where all of Omicron’s mutations are. And it seems like more treatments are being approved just about every day.

Finally, don’t forget about what I said about Delta. The more infectious it becomes, the harder it will be for other variants to compete with it. As a result, that may end up being a blessing in disguise and help us end the pandemic sooner. The same logic applies to Omicron.

Other Areas of Interest to Watch

Besides all of the countries and regions we have covered so far, there are a few additional areas to watch over the next few months as Omicron spreads around the world.

Conclusion

The Omicron Variant is a harsh reminder that the COVID-19 pandemic is still far from over. However, the panic and hysteria surrounding Omicron is largely unwarranted. Yes, some restrictions will likely be re-introduced, but we will not be going back to the dark lockdown days of March and April, 2020. Back then, there were no vaccines and no treatments.

Today, we have a much bigger toolbox. Go get your booster, and be smart about your holiday gatherings. The Omicron wave will be in and out quickly, regardless of what country you’re in. Then, we can get back to living our lives, and be one step closer to putting this awful pandemic behind us once and for all. Happy New Year, everyone!

Top Image: Matt’s COVID-19 Risk Index for the United States as of 23 December, 2021

The post Why You Shouldn’t Panic Over the Omicron Variant of COVID-19 appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I also believe that the Delta Variant is so dominant that it will ultimately help us end the COVID-19 pandemic sooner. How is that, you ask? It’s actually quite simple

• It blocks other potentially vaccine-resistant variants from taking hold. The Mu Variant that everyone thought was vaccine-resistant has been eradicated. No other variants have been able to establish themselves since Delta became dominant.
• It spreads so fast that most places will reach herd immunity faster.
• Treatments continue to improve, which will help drive down the death rate

Furthermore, the models have spoken loud and clear about the outlook for this winter and the end game for the COVID-19 pandemic. And they’re largely in agreement, too. Barring some freak mutant variant emerging, the COVID-19 pandemic will finally start winding down in 2022.

End Game in the United States: COVID-19 Has Started Shifting from Pandemic to Endemic

As soon as COVID-19 began to spread around the world, it became clear the the only end game is for the virus to become endemic. In its final endemic phase, the virus continues to circulate through the population, but at a much slower rate than during the pandemic phase. As treatments become more effective and widely available, the virus becomes much less dangerous. Many infectious disease experts predict that once COVID-19 reaches its final endemic stage, it will be a similar threat to the flu or the common cold.

Current Status of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

First, let’s look back at what the COVID-19 map looked like back in the summer. Highly vaccinated areas had largely suppressed COVID-19 spread. On the other hand, the Delta variant had set the southeast on fire, where you could find the lowest vaccination rates in the country.

By September, the epicenter had spread north and west, hitting the Inner Mountain West and the Ohio Valley particularly hard. Both areas still have large pockets of unvaccinated residents.

Today, the summer wave has largely subsided. The last dregs of it are rolling through the upper midwest and the northeast, as well as parts of the southwest. All in all, the country is in much better shape than it was back in September. Additionally, notice how the current map looks almost like the inverse of the August map. If reinfections are not occurring in the hard-hit southeast, that’s a major step forward to reaching herd immunity.

Despite the threat of another wave, I do not see any scenario where the United States implements more COVID-19 restrictions. Pandemic fatigue is real, and it’s unlikely further restrictions will be effective. So what exactly lies ahead? Let’s dive into the models.

University of Washington IHME Model

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model remains the gold standard go-to model in the United States. Everyone from the White House to the media to everyday citizens like you and me use it to plan their lives amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.

Before we dive into the cases and deaths, let’s first look at mobility and vaccination projections. Both parameters will help us understand the big picture. Lots of people will be traveling for the holidays this year, even though large pockets of the population remain unvaccinated. First, let’s look at the vaccination projections.

One thing really jumps out at me here. The model projects that vaccine coverage will basically plateau starting in January 22, with 63% of the population fully vaccinated. With a population of 330 million, that means that 125 million people in the United States will remain unvaccinated. Thankfully, that should be high enough to keep hospitals from being completely overwhelmed.

As for mobility, the IHME agrees with my prediction that the United States will not implement any further restrictions. Mobility should approach its pre-pandemic levels in early 2022.

Do Case Loads Lead to the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Before we look towards the end of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, there is still one final hurdle to clear: the holidays. Remember that in 2020, holiday travel and gatherings sent COVID-19 cases spiking to nearly 300,000 per day in the U.S. Things are much different this year, but the threat of another wave is still very real.

A fifth wave in the United States would take on one of two forms. You could have a tsunami of cases like we did last winter or when the Delta Variant hit this summer. However, this scenario is quite unlikely due to the vaccines and the high number of infections in the United States. Instead, my gut feeling is that you’ll see much more of a minor uptick, similar to Scenario 2 in the plot below.

The IHME model agrees. Its official projection calls for a minor uptick of COVID-19 cases over the holidays. Only in the worst case scenario do you see anything like what the U.S. experienced this summer.

COVID-19 Simulator Model

The COVID-19 Simulator is run by Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Georgia Tech, and the Boston Medical Center. We’ve used it in many of our past analyses and forecasts. It has been reliable and accurate throughout the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Because I’m not expecting that the United States will make very many changes to the current COVID-19 protocols, let’s initialize the model to run on the current interventions for the full 16 week projection. To account for waning immunity, let’s also bump the vaccine efficacy down to 75% from its default 90%.

The COVID-19 Simulator falls largely in agreement with the IHME. In a worst-case scenario, new daily case loads would remain below the September, 2021 surge, peaking around 148,000 new cases daily. However, the far more likely scenario is that you’ll see a slight bump in cases as people gather for the holidays. Hopefully, once that’s done, we can have a much clearer view of the COVID-19 pandemic’s end game.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Model

The MIT Model is based off of the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Removed) Model. Like our model, it accounts for features specific to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as government intervention, vaccinations, and human behavior. And it’s probably the most optimistic of the three models. It doesn’t expect much, if any, surge due to the holidays. In fact, it predicts that the United States will only gain about 1 million more cases in the eight-week period between now and late January, 2022.

^ Cumulative case projections from the MIT Model ( https://www.covidanalytics.io/projections)

Places Delta Has Hit Hard Appear to Be Reaching Herd Immunity

One very encouraging pattern that has emerged is that places that the Delta Variant has hit very hard to not appear to be getting much by way of reinfections. Indeed, cases loads and risk levels across the southeastern United States are at the lowest levels they’ve been since the beginning of the pandemic.

This pattern is becoming prevalent around the world. India and Indonesia both experienced major spikes of the Delta Variant between April and July. Both countries have brought new case loads to near record lows and have kept them there. You can say the same thing for Japan. Following the Olympics in July, Japan experienced a major Delta Variant Spike. It’s now reporting less than 200 new cases per day. Even Brazil, which has had a moderate burn throughout the pandemic instead of a big spike, has gotten new case loads down to their lowest levels since May, 2020.

While these are only a few examples, this scenario is playing out in countries on all 7 continents.

Watch the Southern Hemisphere for a Preview of the COVID-19 End Game

Throughout the pandemic, Southern Hemisphere winters (June to September) have offered a glimpse into what the Northern Hemisphere should expect for its winters. While they haven’t been a perfect crystal ball, they have at least gotten us in the ball park for what to expect. And even though not all Southern Hemisphere countries have experienced a spike of the Delta Variant, the ones that did have all gotten case loads down to near record lows and kept them there.

Southern Hemisphere countries on the African continent have had particular success at keeping case loads down following a Delta Variant spike. And keep in mind, vaccines are still few and far between in many of those countries. In fact, the Southern Hemisphere as a whole seems to confirm the models’ predictions that the end game for the COVID-19 pandemic will come in 2022. However, for the best previews of what the United States has in store, I would watch Australia and South Africa.

How Close is the United States to Herd Immunity?

It’s hard to say for sure how close the United States is to herd immunity, but we can run some back-of-the-envelope calculations to get a ballpark number. First and foremost, there are likely far more actual infections than the data show. And that’s true in every single country across the board. The data only contains diagnosed cases from tests. With so many cases either asymptomatic or mild, many people did not get tested even though they contracted COVID-19.

Even though the U.S. has about 48 million positive tests, experts believe that the actual number of cases could be as high as 200 million. However, I think that it’s unlikely that high. Instead, let’s use the COVID-19 Simulator’s best estimate of total U.S. cases: 157 million.

US Population = 330 million
Estimated Cases = 157 million
157 million / 330 million = 47% of population has contracted COVID-19

Now, we’ll add in the vaccinations. About 59% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated. However, we must keep in mind that a portion of the vaccinated population has also contracted COVID-19, either before vaccines were available, or as a breakthrough case. For purposes of this argument, let’s assume that half of the vaccinated population has also contracted COVID-19. When calculating the total population that has immunity, we’ll need to subtract those from the vaccinated pool so they’re not counted twice.

330 million * 0.59 = 195 million fully vaccinated
195 / 2 = 98 million vaccinated, but have not contracted COVID-19

157 million infections + 98 million vaccinated = 255 million immunized
255 million immunized / 330 million population = 77% of population immunized

It’s believed that 90 to 95 percent of the population must be immunized to reach full herd immunity against the Delta Variant. The United States isn’t quite there yet, but it’s getting close. These calculations also point to the COVID-19 end game coming in 2022.

A Tale of Caution: Zero-COVID Strategy Does Not Work Against the Delta Variant

Unfortunately, not every country is succeeding in the war against COVID-19. Europe has once again become the epicenter of the pandemic. Cases are surging in New Zealand. Much of Southeast Asia and Oceania are coming down off of record Delta spikes. What do these countries have in common? They all adapted a zero-COVID strategy at the onset of the pandemic, and the Delta Variant is forcing them to abandon that strategy because of its extraordinarily high transmissibility.

Can Zero-COVID Countries End the Pandemic with Vaccines?

It’s unlikely vaccines alone will end the pandemic. The Delta Variant is so contagious and transmissible that you’d need to vaccinate more than 95% of the population to reach herd immunity through vaccination alone. However, that doesn’t mean vaccines can’t suppress clusters, waves, and hotspots. Just have a look at Europe.

This graph tells the whole story.

So what does this all mean for Europe? Europe is likely going through the same Delta spike that the United States and so many other countries saw back in July and August. Did you notice on the figure above that neither Germany (black line) nor Czechia (blue line) had a major COVID-19 surge over the summer of 2021, while Spain did?

Rapid Vaccine Rollout Kills One-and-Done Delta Spikes in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia had done a stunningly good job controlling COVID-19 until the Delta Variant arrived in May, 2021. After abandoning their zero-COVID strategy, many countries saw horrific Delta spikes as the variant ripped through the population. But the pattern has mirrored what the rest of the world has seen. You get one major spike in cases, and once it peaks, you can quickly suppress it through both vaccines and natural immunity.

Three countries in Southeast Asia really stand out for having some of the highest vaccination rates in the world. They are Cambodia, Malaysia, and Singapore. All three countries saw a major Delta spike earlier this year, and rapidly rolled out vaccines to kill the outbreak in its tracks. Even neighboring Thailand is seeing remarkable success despite having a much lower vaccination rate. Unlike the United States, all four countries continue to rapidly vaccinate their populations.

The lesson for the United States here is that it, too, can keep the Delta Variant at bay. Even if it can’t ramp up its vaccination rate, highly-effective new treatments coming on the market should help blunt the death rate, even in the unvaccinated. Herd immunity is in sight, but you can’t rule out another surge this winter. We just need do everything we can to get there as quickly and safely as possible.

Conclusion

It’s been a long two years, but the end game for the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be finally starting to come into focus. As weird as it sounds, the Delta Variant is actually helping us end the pandemic. It has kept other variants at bay, while establishing a clear pattern around the world. You’ll need to endure one major spike from the Delta variant. And once that’s finished, when coupled with a high vaccination rate, herd immunity should be in sight.

The United States has already endured the worst of the Delta spike. Whatever surge we get this winter should be minor in comparison. The combination of highly effective vaccines and treatments is the silver bullet we’ve been waiting 2 years for. Let’s finally put an end to all of this once and for all.

The post Is the United States Nearing the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic? Model Predictions May Surprise You. appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Which is exactly why New York City was the perfect and unusually satisfying destination to kick off our post-COVID travel. Seemingly the antithesis of my standard adventures deep in the remote back country, New York became the piece that fit perfectly into this often warped and twisted post-COVID puzzle. Having grown up in Massachusetts as a die-hard Red Sox fan, going to New York always felt like walking into enemy territory. Only this time it didn’t. People seemed very welcoming, much like what I experienced when I would travel to Mexico prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Twisted and warped, indeed. At least we still got the quintessential New York experience of sitting in traffic and paying the ridiculous tolls to cross the George Washington Bridge.

Our destination in New York was the Cosmic Nature: Infinity exhibit at the New York Botanical Garden in The Bronx. After nearly two years of living through the pandemic, Infinity turned out to be an impeccable theme for our first post-COVID travel adventure.

Travel in a Post-COVID World

I’ll be honest with you. I had no idea what to expect in my first “real” post-COVID adventure. It’s been no secret how unpleasant so many of my previous encounters with the public throughout the pandemic. From the death threats I got in Arizona to derogatory slurs being hurled at me in Texas to the intimidating stares in just about every other state, I was pretty skeptical heading into New York City. The pandemic had seemed to bring out the absolute worst in everybody.

Despite their reputation, New Yorkers could not have been more friendly, welcoming, and respectful. Lines were orderly. Nobody was making a fuss over COVID-19 restrictions. What an incredible contrast from what I had to deal with in Arizona throughout the pandemic! Did it make any sense to me? No. Was I happy and relieved to see it? Without a doubt.

How has the COVID-19 Pandemic Changed Travel?

It has and it hasn’t. While many people expect a 9/11-style division between pre-COVID and post-COVID travel, I didn’t see it as quite that harsh. At least not right now. Flying out of Logan Airport in Boston less than 6 months after the 9/11 attacks was nothing like pre-9/11 travel. The endless lines, the extremely tight security, and the bomb-sniffing dogs didn’t feel real. Don’t forget that two out of the four hijacked planes in the 9/11 attacks originated in Boston, so we were grateful for the extra security at the time. But over time, we learned to accept that there was no going back to a pre-9/11 world.

While there will definitely be a pre and post-COVID distinction, I found a lot of normalcy visiting the Botanical Gardens in New York. Walking around looking at the exhibit felt eerily like pre-COVID times. You still have to wear a mask going into buildings, and there are signs everywhere to remind you that the pandemic is not yet over. But all the social distancing placards and blocked off areas were all gone. Those are so 2020, I guess.

New York City’s COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate

Nearly all of the post-COVID changes to your travel will be entering facilities. New York City requires you to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination to enter just about every public facility. If you’re not vaccinated, you will be denied entry, as negative tests are not accepted. Acceptable proof of vaccination includes:

• The original physical copy of your vaccination card
• An electronic copy or photograph of your vaccination card
• A photocopy of your vaccination record

Because they featured both indoor and outdoor exhibits, the Botanical Gardens were the perfect place to get a glimpse into what post-COVID travel may look like. Staff members verified our vaccine cards at the main entrance, and once we were inside, we did not need to show them again. My aunt and I both got our shots in the US, while my uncle was vaccinated in Canada. We had no issues getting in.

Both staff and security at the entrance to each building reminded us to wear masks inside and closely monitored foot traffic to ensure that the building did not exceed capacity. Other than that, though, it felt oddly normal.

Infinity: The Crossroads of Art and Physics

The Cosmic Nature: Infinity exhibit at the Botanical Garden was easily one of the most fascinating art exhibits I’ve ever seen. Artist Yayoi Kusama presented a captivating crossroads between land and water, art and physics, and indoors and out to showcase her lifelong fascination with the natural world. Unfortunately, we were there on one of the last weekends the exhibit was open. If you ever get a chance to see Kusama’s work elsewhere, I highly recommend it. It’s well worth the journey.

The grounds of the New York Botanical Gardens are beautiful to begin with. However, it doesn’t take long before you see Kusama’s touch. What originally feels like walking onto the grounds of The Masters quickly transports you Japan. The combination of all the flowers in bloom and the near-peak fall colors made it truly magical.

Our first stop was at a large tent where the public could make their own infinity art. Each person was given a flower and had to place it somewhere in the tent that was not on the fan, not on the fire extinguisher, and not in your pocket. When you walk into the tent, it is simply sensory overload for your eyes.

The First Taste of Infinity in Our Post-COVID Travel

Next up was our first taste of infinity at the Infinite Pumpkins room. It takes a second going from the bright, sunny outdoors to a pitch dark room, but I think that was done intentionally. Once your eyes adjust, you find yourself in a small room with a cube that’s roughly 4 feet in all dimensions.

A light underneath the cube slowly turns on, illuminating paper lantern pumpkins covering the bottom of the cube. As the light reaches full brightness, you look into the cube, and like magic, the rows of pumpkins look like they go on forever, into infinity. You start walking around the cube, and find that every side you look into, you’re staring into infinity. Look down, and you’re staring into a bottomless pit full of pumpkins. Since I have a degree in physics, my interest was particularly piqued.

So how does she do it? If you’re familiar with Kusama’s work, you know that reflection is a common theme in her art. The sides of the Infinity Pumpkins cube were all two-way mirrors, which gives you a truly unique sense of infinity regardless of the angle you’re viewing it. Photography was banned in the room, so I unfortunately can’t show you any pictures. However, you can find pictures of similar exhibits with a quick Google search.

Your Narcissism For Sale at the Narcissus Garden

In Greek Mythology, Narcissus is the god who was well-known for his beauty. He rejected all romantic advances, and ultimately fell in love with his own reflection in a pool of water. He became so consumed by his obsession with himself he stared at his reflection for the rest of his life, drawing the ire and vengeance of the other gods. If you’ve ever wondered where the term “narcissism” comes from, that’s where.

As part of a protest against elitism in the 1960’s, Kusama stood among 1,500 mirrored orbs with a sign that read “Your Narcissism For Sale”. She sold the orbs for $2 each. Later in her career, she built the Narcissus Garden, letting the orbs float around a large pond surrounded by plants and nature. In addition to seeing your own reflection, the orbs reflect the trees, sky, and water, allowing you to be one with the landscape.

Discovering Teleportation Inside the Conservatory

The Enid Haupt Conservatory is one of the most striking buildings at the New York Botanical Gardens. Housing exotic plants from around the world, the majestic Palm Dome ties the building together. And if there’s one thing walking amongst so many exotic tropical plants gives you, it’s some serious wanderlust.

Due to COVID-19 restrictions, the loop through the conservatory was only one-way. You start in the tropical rainforest, where you’re instantly transported to the lush jungles of South America, Africa, Asia, and the Caribbean. You’ll see everything from common houseplants to the most exotic and rare flora. And if you listen closely, you can almost hear the exotic birds, monkeys, and jaguars that call the rainforest home.

Towards the end of the rainforest exhibit, the path starts to descend, like you’re sinking into the ground. The exhibit surrounds you with swampy aquatic plants. Then, all of a sudden you reach a flight of stairs. Go down the stairs into an underground metal tunnel that feels like it’s right out of Star Trek. Walk for a couple of minutes. You’ll go up a short flight of stairs and be dropped right into the middle of the desert. I turned to my aunt and said, “if we ever figure out teleportation, I’m pretty sure that’s what it’s gonna feel like.”

The desert exhibit is just as exotic. While it features many staples of the American Southwest, it will also transport you to more deserts such as the Kalahari, the Australian Outback, and Arabia. Seeing the native plants from the Kalahari mixed in with American staples such as the Saguaro and the Prickly Pear did catch me off guard a little. But it was really cool to see them together. You can’t do that in Arizona.

Chance Encounters are One Reason Why I Love to Travel

When the COVID-19 pandemic shut down travel in 2020, there was one thing I really missed from my adventures. Prior to the pandemic, I really enjoyed the short, chance encounters with interesting people when I would go down to Mexico. You can learn a lot about yourself and other cultures if you stop, listen to what they have to say, and learn from it. As I traveled more and more, I found myself having more of these interactions in unexpected places.

Not surprisingly, I had a really cool chance encounter in New York while waiting in line to see the Dancing Pumpkin exhibit. It’s hard to describe the Dancing Pumpkin other than it looks like a dancing polka-dotted octopus, so here’s a picture of it. You can get your picture taken in front of it and walk around underneath it.

A Blast From the Film-Era Past

As we got towards the front of the line, there was a group of three young women in front of us. I had my DSLR camera around my neck, so one of them turned to me and asked if I could take their picture for them. They told me the secrets to using their camera, and then went to pose for their picture in front of the Dancing Pumpkin.

As they walked over, I couldn’t help but notice their camera didn’t have a screen on the back of it. A closer glance at the back and I saw a label that said “Insert Film Here”. I hadn’t used a film camera in at least 20 years, so I thought this was pretty cool. But it gets better. After they got into position, I gave them the countdown. 3-2-1, and then pushed the button. You could hear the gears of the camera pulling the film through as it captured the image. Then I felt pressure pushing up on the underside of the brim of my hat.

I pulled the camera away from my face and looked down to see the picture coming out of the top. It was a Polaroid camera. I have a very high level of respect for people that still use film cameras, so I made sure to tell them. We had a good laugh over it as I gave the camera back to them. This may be the COVID isolation talking, but that brief interaction really made my day.

The Grand Finale at the Infinity Room

The Infinity Room is what people come to the Kusama exhibits for. Using nothing more than light and mirrors, the Infinity Room immerses you in an environment that fosters an out of body experience while at the same time heightening and arousing your senses. Remember the Infinite Pumpkins exhibit we visited earlier? The Infinity Room is the same thing, except instead of putting paper pumpkins inside the cube, you put yourself. And the other big difference? You can take pictures inside the Infinity Room. You only get 45 seconds inside, so be ready with your camera to make the most of it.

If you’re wondering where the worlds of art and physics collide, it’s inside the Infinity Room. When you step in, you’re instantly hit with visual overload. Prisms all over the wall and ceiling light up the mirrored walls with what feels like infinite colors. A slight echo subconsciously enhances your hearing, too. Make sure to observe the room from different angles. The optics will give you a sense for the many, or dare I say infinite, different aspects of infinity. Then just like that, the door opens and your time is up.

Final Thoughts on Post-COVID Travel

It felt so good to finally be able to get out and go adventuring. I really believe that post-COVID travel will feel much more “normal” than many people think. I got a bit of that feeling on a day trip to Boston a couple months ago, and this trip to New York certainly reinforced it.

However, just like after 9/11, we must remember that new practices, policies, and protocols are in place to keep you safe. Those 5-hour waits to get through security at Logan Airport in early 2002 quietly faded away as we embraced the new post-9/11 normal. And the COVID-19 restriction will do the same. Since the onset of the pandemic, I felt safer in New York City than I did in Phoenix, Boston, and everywhere else I’ve been in between. This is just the beginning of our next chapter, and as the world fully reopens, I couldn’t be more excited for what future adventures hold in 2022 and beyond.

Stay Up-to-Date with Our Adventures

To follow along and stay up-to-date with our post-COVID travel adventures, please sign up for the Matt Gove Photo newsletter. In addition, you’ll also get exclusive deals to our store that we don’t offer anywhere else, as well as free travel guides and visual storytelling (photography/video) tutorials. It’s free, and always will be. Where will your first post-COVID adventure take you?

Want to See More Photos of Cosmic Nature: Infinity?

Can’t get enough of infinity here? Head over to the Matt Gove Photo website. You’ll find the complete photo album from the Cosmic Nature: Infinity exhibit there.

Top Photo: Kusama’s Tulip Sculptures Take Over a Pond at the Cosmic Nature: Infinity Exhibit
New York, New York – October, 2021

The post Travel Journal: Post-COVID Adventures Kick Off in New York City appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

So has the Delta wave peaked? Because the United States is so big and diverse, the best answer I can give you right now, unfortunately is “it’s complicated.” The good news is that things are looking better than they were just a month ago…depending on where you are.

Current Overview

The COVID-19 Delta Variant continues to absolutely rip through states with low vaccination rates. The summer surge that originally started in Missouri and Arkansas quickly spread across Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. That epicenter has now starting to drift north into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

Thankfully, case loads are starting to come down in some areas. However, case loads continue to rise across far too much of the country. We’ve still got a long ways to go before the pandemic is over.

The Summer Delta Wave has Peaked in the Southeast, but the Wave is Far From Over

After the relentless surge this summer, the delta wave has peaked in the southeast. New daily case counts across the majority of counties in Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia, and Florida are now falling.

Unfortunately, this map gives me cause for concern. Even though I am cautiously optimistic the surge has peaked, plenty of red flags remain. An alarming number of counties are still showing an increase in cases over the past two weeks. This spread is still raging in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, and the Carolinas. These areas still have the lowest vaccination rates in the country. Therefore, there remains plenty of vulnerable population still left for the COVID-19 Delta Variant to infect.

It’s a cruel reminder of just how vicious the Delta Variant is, and that a decline in cases can turn around and start surging again anytime. Both the Delta wave and the COVID-19 pandemic are far from over.

The Delta Wave is Rapidly Spreading North and West

The southeast’s epicenter has spread north. Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia are all on fire right now. Same with the southern parts of Ohio, Indiana and Illinois. Further west, Wyoming, Idaho, and the eastern parts of Washington and Oregon are experiencing rapid COVID-19 spread and extreme risk levels on Matt’s Risk Index.

Interestingly, the western epicenter is getting slammed on both sides. A cluster of Delta cases that started in northern California and southwest Oregon has been swiftly sweeping in from the southwest. On the other side, the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally seeded another superspreader cluster of the Delta Variant. That outbreak has been pushing into the same region from the east. That cluster has also rapidly spread south. It merged with the remains of the Missouri and Arkansas cluster from earlier in the summer. It has since spread across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Finally, don’t forget about our friends in Alaska and Hawaii. The COVID-19 Delta Variant has been ravaging both states, with both cases and hospitalizations at all-time pandemic highs. While new daily cases appear to have peaked in Hawaii on 2 September, they are still rapidly rising in Alaska. Again, remember to take these statistics with caution. New case counts can quickly turn around and start rising again without warning.

If You’re In the Northeast, Don’t Rest on Your Laurels. The Delta Wave is Still Coming. It Just Won’t Be as Bad.

It’s easy to look at the lower COVID-19 case rates in the northeast and attribute it to the region’s high vaccination rate. Indeed, you should. A 60 to 70 percent vaccination rate is responsible for the northeast largely avoiding the ongoing Delta Wave.

However, there is still one big wild card in the northeast. It’s still far too early to establish the effect reopening schools has had on the ongoing Delta wave. Most schools in the northeast do not start until after Labor Day. As a result, their first day of school would have fallen during the week of 6 September this year.

Keep in mind that many K-12 students are not yet eligible for COVID-19 vaccines. Since it takes 10 to 14 days for COVID-19 transmission to show up in test results, we will not know the full effect of getting back in the classroom in the northeast for at least a couple more weeks. Additionally, cases are expected to increase as colder weather drives people back indoors as we go throughout the fall.

Thankfully, the northeast has the highest vaccination rate in the country. Any additional surge from the current Delta wave should be mild and peak quickly compared to the rest of the country. Yes, COVID-19 is absolutely ripping through schools in certain parts of the United States. However, unvaccinated adults remain the primary spreaders of the current Delta surge.

Once Again, Look to Australia for an Ominous Warning for the Winter

Australia’s location in the Southern Hemisphere has now twice given Northern Hemisphere countries a sneak preview of what could be in store for their winter. Indeed, Australia’s 2020 winter surge began in late June in the State of Victoria. That surge sent Melbourne into lockdown until the wave finally subsided in late September. The United States ignored that stark warning. The result was predictable: a relentless seven-month surge that peaked at nearly 300,000 cases per day.

Those same warning signs are now flashing once again. The Delta Variant has shattered COVID-19 records across Australia as winter now mercifully turns into spring down under. This year, Australia’s winter wave began around 10 July. It has since surged to more than four times the 2020 peak, thanks to the Delta Variant. As a result, Prime Minister Scott Morrison recently announced that Australia will shift from its zero-COVID strategy. Instead, it will learn to live with the virus as vaccinations ramp up over the next few months. If its current vaccination rate holds, Australia will vaccinate 70% of its eligible population by mid-October.

Winter Outlook for the United States

So what does this mean for the United States? At the very least, it all but guarantees a fifth wave as people gather indoors this fall and travel for the holidays. Will it be worse than last winter? We don’t know yet. It all boils down to the tug-of-war between the vaccines and the highly contagious Delta Variant. Whichever one wins will drive the course of the fifth wave. About 55% of the US population is fully vaccinated. At this point, it’s really a flip of a coin as to which way it goes.

One important thing to note is that the US is currently more vaccinated (55%) than Australia was (36%) heading into its winter back in April and May. However, Americans have a much higher resistance to COVID-19 restrictions and vaccines than Australia does, which will likely nullify that advantage.

Conclusion

I’m cautiously optimistic that, with a few exceptions, the Delta wave has reached its peak in the United States. However, it opens up a bigger question. How quickly will the case counts drop before the inevitable fifth wave sets in? And what happens once that fifth wave sets in? Only time will tell. But I’ll leave you with this. Have a look at the near perfect inverse relationship between vaccination rates and Matt’s Risk Index.

Many infectious disease experts said that the Delta Variant would set the end date of the pandemic back one year. Hopefully through vaccinations and infections, we can start approaching herd immunity be the Spring of 2022. In the meantime, there are a few promising signs. First, there are a growing number of countries that have had a major Delta Wave. Many of those countries have kept case loads down following those waves.

Second, for as contagious and nasty as the Delta Variant is, that may actually be working for us. Further variants have not been able to rapidly spread because Delta is so dominant. That doesn’t necessarily mean they can’t but if Delta remains dominant, it should be easier for us to corral it. The United States can still avoid the misery and disaster of last winter. But that window to avoid it is rapidly closing on us. Let’s all do our part to put this nightmare behind us once and for all.

Top Photo: Red Rock Backcountry
Kaibab National Forest, Arizona – July, 2016

The post Is the United States Mercifully Past the Delta Wave Peak? appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

So just how bad will the ongoing Delta surge get in the United States? For that answer, we’ll once again turn to the COVID-19 models. We’ll use the same methodology as our 14 November, 2020 prediction of the winter wave. That forecast missed the peak by 1 day and 20,000 cases.

The Current State of COVID-19 in the United States

Before we dive into the models, we first need to do a full assessment of the current COVID-19 situation in the United States. It’s impossible to make an accurate forecast without seeing the actual data. We’ll start with a general overview of the whole country. The Delta variant accounts for more than 98% of all COVID-19 cases in the United States.

Next, we’ll drill down a little further and locate the current hot spots on a map. For the most detailed look, we need to look at the smallest political subdivisions we have available. In the US, we have COVID-19 data for counties.

Instead of looking at a lot of different maps, we now have a secret weapon that did not exist last fall. Prior to driving across the country back in February, I created Matt’s Risk Index. The index, which is essentially a weighted average of several key parameters, allows us to quickly and easily identify high-risk areas at any scale. But perhaps the most powerful aspect of Matt’s Risk Index is that you can model it.

Not surprisingly, the Delta Variant is absolutely ripping through areas with low vaccination rates. The vast majority of transmission is in the southeast, but cases are really accelerating in parts of the west as well. To make matters worse, nobody seems to be all that interested in doing anything about it. As a result, cases are skyrocketing with no end in sight.

A Look Back at the Spring, 2021 COVID-19 Delta Spike in India

The Delta variant of COVID-19 first surfaced in India in December, 2020. It’s nearly twice as contagious as the initial strain of COVID-19. Initial data indicates it causes more severe disease, too. The good news is that all of the vaccines currently authorized for use in the United States remain highly effective against Delta.

The Delta variant smoldered in India until April, 2020. Once it took off, it wasted no time ripping through India’s 1.36 billion residents, whom were almost entirely unvaccinated at the time. In less than a month, India’s caseload increased twenty-fold, peaking at 414,188 new cases on 6 May. Initial estimates state that the Delta wave could have infected as much as 70% of India’s population.

So does India provide a glimpse into what could happen in the United States? Absolutely. Simply overlaying the current Delta surge in the United States over India’s spike from the spring tells us a lot. However, before we do that, let’s look at a few differences between India and the United States.

• The US has a much lower population and population density than India
• About half of the US population is fully vaccinated. By comparison, less than 5% of India’s population was fully vaccinated when the Delta variant broke out back in the spring.

From that data along, we can make a logical hypothesis. In the United States, the Delta variant of COVID-19 will not spike as high as it did in India, but the outbreak will last slightly longer.

As you can see, new case loads in the United States closely mirrored new case loads in India at the beginning of the outbreak. However, the curves are starting to diverge due to the much higher vaccination rate in the United States.

A Quick Word About Mathematical Models

When looking at any kind of mathematical model, you need to know whether you should favor a worst-case scenario, best-case scenario, or somewhere in between. In previous forecasts, we generally stuck to a middle-of-the-road scenario. However, because nobody is doing anything to curb the spread of the Delta variant in the United States, we will weigh our forecast more towards the worst-case scenario.

Additionally, we must also consider that many virus experts have said that the Delta variant can be treated like a whole new virus, despite the fact that the vaccines remain effective against it. Thankfully, our model has a mechanism built into it to handle these scenarios.

Looking Ahead: Our COVID-19 Model

As you may recall, our COVID-19 model was built using the Susceptible – Infected – Recovered, or SIR model. Unfortunately, the SIR model does not account for multiple waves in the pandemic, and we are now into the fourth wave of COVID-19 in the United States. This does not mean that we can’t make accurate predictions of new daily cases with the model anymore. Quite the contrary, we just need to jump through a few more hoops to make it work.

To make the model work, we simply need to perform a time-shift when looking at the projected curves. All that means is that the model output will be off by a certain amount of time, so we need to slide the curve left or right on the x-axis. We do not change the shape, height, or width of the curve. We simply slide it along the x-axis. Have a look at the model output.

Put on Your Mad Scientist Hat…and Stay with Me

All right, full warning, you may think I’m crazy here, but trust me, there’s a method to my madness. First, compare the actual data (blue line) to the model output (orange line). The shape of the blue line starting on 1 July, 2021 closely correlates to the shape of the orange line starting on 1 January, 2021. To get the model’s projection for the current wave, just slide the orange curve to the right by six months.

Making the time shift establishes a baseline for a worst case scenario. It’s actually a worse than worst-case scenario because the raw calculation does not account for 50% of the US population being fully vaccinated. That means that it’s next to impossible for the US to reach 375,000 new daily cases in the outbreak.

To account for 50% of the US population being fully vaccinated against COVID-19, the susceptible population for the SIR model is cut in half. As a result, both the height and width of that orange spike should get cut in half as well. When you do that, the outbreak peaks at about 175,000 new daily cases and lasts about 4 months. That means that the Delta wave should peak in early September in the United States, and will be largely over by the time we get into November and December. It’s not exact, but it certainly gets us in the ballpark.

A Much More Accurate Method Exists…and It’s Been 93 to 98% Correct This Summer

I’ll be the first to admit, I wouldn’t put too much credibility into the time shifting on its own. Let’s look at the actual model predictions that I post to the COVID-19 dashboard every week. Those forecasts have gotten 93-98% of their predictions correct each run since late Spring, 2021. These number are from the 9 August, 2021 model run.

So what can we glean from this data? In the above plot, it projects that the blue line should track about half way between the orange and the green lines. The peak occurs when the curve stops accelerating upwards and starts leveling off. That leveling off happens in early September. All of a sudden the time shifting isn’t as crazy as it originally sounded!

While this projection won’t tell you anything about the daily new cases, you can get a pretty good idea of the number of cumulative cases since the start of the pandemic. If you extrapolate the blue line into the fall, the US should have around 40-42 million total cases at the peak.

Our COVID-19 Model’s Official Prediction for the Delta Wave in the United States

When you take everything we just discussed and put it all together, you get the model’s official prediction. Before even looking at other models, my gut feeling is that the peak of 175,000 new daily cases may be low. I hope I’m wrong, but I’d be much more willing to bet on 200,000 to 225,000 new daily cases in the United States at the peak.

The IHME Model

To further improve our forecast, let’s look at the gold standard model that the White House and many others use. The University of Washington developed the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, or IHME model.

The IHME model projects daily new deaths instead of new cases. However, we can take the current death rate and use it to calculate the approximate new daily case load.

total cases = 36,055,002
total deaths = 618,137
death rate = 618,137 / 36,055,002 = 1.71%

Here are the IHME’s projections for daily deaths.

Let’s look at the worst case scenario, which is the red dashed line and shaded area. The dashed red line indicates that deaths will peak at 1,746 per day in late September. We can use the death rate to calculate the number of new daily cases at the peak.

new daily cases = 1,746 / 0.0171
new daily cases = 102,105

All right, we’ve already got a problem here. The seven day average of new daily cases in the United States surpassed 107,000 on 6 August and is still rising. The gold standard model can’t be off by that much, can it? No, it’s not. That’s why they’ve introduced the shaded areas of uncertainty. Let’s redo the calculation for the peak at the top of the shaded red area, which peaks at 3,934 new daily deaths on 25 September.

new daily cases = 3,934 / 0.0171
new daily cases = 230,058

That’s right in line with my initial prediction of 200,000 to 225,000 new daily cases. So when do cases peak in the IHME model? Simple. Cases generally peak two weeks before deaths do. Two weeks prior to 25 September is 11 September.

The COVID-19 Simulator Model

The COVID-19 Simulator is run by Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Georgia Tech, and the Boston Medical Center. It allows you to model scenarios for different variants, vaccine efficacies, restrictions, and much more.

We ran the simulation for the current mix of variants that’s circulating around the country right now. Because so little has been done to contain the Delta wave, we ran the simulation under the assumption that no new stay-at-home orders will be issued and the current levels of restrictions, which are very few, will be maintained.

One thing stands out right away. The COVID-19 Simulator predicts noticeably higher case loads than either our model or the IHME model. It estimates the wave will peak on 27 September with 334,000 new daily cases. We first need to determine if that’s an anomaly or actually has some credibility.

Let’s see how it did in our November, 2020 forecast. At the peak of the winter wave, the COVID-19 Simulator predicted about 50,000 more new daily cases than the actual number. So it has been trending high, but certainly isn’t an anomaly. We’ll need to take that into account when we make our official forecast.

Our Official Forecast

As we do with weather forecasting, we need to determine how much weight to give each model in our official forecast. We’ll give the most weight to the IHME for two reasons. First, it’s the gold standard for COVID-19 modeling. Second, our model is largely in agreement with it. The more models you have in agreement, the higher your confidence can be. Because the COVID-19 Simulator prediction is higher, we’ll favor the higher side of the other two model projections in our official forecast.

Conclusion

The Delta variant of COVID-19 is a formidable foe. It’s highly contagious, and can cause very severe disease in unvaccinated people. In the United States, the Delta wave is nothing more than a self-inflicted wound, and will cause lots of unnecessary infections and deaths. Thankfully, we have one critical weapon available to us now that we lacked last fall: a safe and effective vaccine.

If you haven’t yet already, please go get your shots. It’s not too late. Not only could it save your life, it may save countless others, too. Let’s all do our part to put this pandemic behind us once and for all. Stay safe out there.

Top Photo: A Relaxing Day Rafting the Colorado River
Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona – June, 2015

The post How Bad Will the COVID-19 Delta Surge Get in the United States? Here’s What the Models Say. appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Little did I know at the time, that would be my final cross-border adventure before international borders slammed shut less than six months later as the COVID-19 pandemic swept across the world. A year and a half later, some countries are cautiously beginning to reopen. As of 9 August, 2021, fully vaccinated Americans can now visit Canada for non-essential purposes.

However, if you think the border crossing will be as easy as it was in 2019, you’re in for a big surprise. There’s a lot of documentation you’ll need to be allowed into Canada. We’ll go through all of the paperwork you’ll need, as well as the rules you’ll need to follow while you’re in Canada. Make sure you have all of your documentation in order before leaving home. You will not be allowed into Canada without it.

First, Determine If You’re Eligible to Enter Canada

To save yourself a lot of headaches, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) has a free online self-assessment to determine if you’re eligible to enter Canada.

We strongly recommend you use this prior to departing for the border. That way, if you’re not eligible to enter Canada, you’ll save yourself the trouble of traveling to and from the border.

Use the ArriveCAN App to Manage All of Your Documents

To make it easier to manage and submit documentation to enter Canada, the Government of Canada created ArriveCAN, a free and secure app. Submitting all of your documentation prior to arriving at the border significantly expedites the amount of time you’ll need to spend at customs.

You can download the ArriveCAN app for free from the Apple App Store or from Google Play. You can also access ArriveCAN from a web browser.

You’ll Need a Negative COVID-19 PCR Test Taken No More Than 72 Hours Prior to Your Arrival in Canada.

Regardless of your vaccination status, Canada still requires every individual that crosses its border to present a negative COVID-19 test. For Americans entering Canada, the testing requirements are simple.

• The test must be administered in the US no more than 72 hours prior to your arrival at the border.
• You must take a molecular (PCR) test. Those are the “brain tickler” tests where they swab your nose with a long Q-Tip. If you present any other type of test to the CBSA, including rapid and at-home tests, you will be denied entry into Canada.

Canada no longer requires post-arrival testing for fully vaccinated travelers. However, you may be randomly selected to complete a molecular (PCR) COVID-19 test at the border. If you’re selected, please comply with border officials. They will send you back to the US if you don’t.

Vaccinated Individuals no Longer Need to Quarantine, but You Will Need a Quarantine Plan

Fully vaccinated individuals are now exempt from Canada’s mandatory quarantine. However, the CBSA requires that you submit a quarantine plan in case you test positive for COVID-19 while you’re in Canada. Submit your quarantine plan through the ArriveCAN app prior to arriving at the border.

The easiest quarantine plan is to stay at a quarantine hotel authorized by the Government of Canada. However, doing so has some drawbacks. You will have to pay your own expenses in the event you need to quarantine. Two weeks of hotel expenses, meals, and more, can add up quick.

Your quarantine plan must show that you will:

• Remain completely isolated from all other people for 14 days or possibly longer.
• Have access to the necessities of life, including food, water, medication, and heat/air conditioning without leaving quarantine.
• Avoid contact with all others who did not travel with you.
• Have no visits from family or guests.

Anyone who is not a Canadian citizen and does not have a suitable quarantine plan will be denied entry into Canada.

If You Are Required to Quarantine, Make Daily Reports Through the ArriveCAN App

Use the ArriveCAN app to confirm that you’ve arrived at your place of quarantine. Complete daily COVID-19 symptom self-assessments until the end of your quarantine. Expect calls, emails, and visits from the Government of Canada to ensure you’re not breaking quarantine. If you’re caught breaking quarantine, you can face up to 6 months in prison and/or up to $750,000 in fines.

If you’re required to quarantine, you will be tested on the 8th day of quarantine. Should the test comes back positive, you will be required to quarantine longer.

Leaving Canada Prior to the End of Your Quarantine

You may choose to leave Canada prior to the end of your quarantine, as long as you remain aysmptomatic. Please note that you must get authorization from a quarantine officer in order to leave if you are staying at a federally designated quarantine facility. As you depart Canada, you must comply with several rules.

• Continue to quarantine yourself until your departure date
• Wear a mask when you depart Canada
• Minimize contact with the general public while you’re traveling from your quarantine facility to the border. Pay for gas at the pump and only use the drive-through when getting food.
• Comply with all rules and regulations in your destination country.

Please note that if you attempt to leave Canada while showing symptoms, you may only exit using a private vehicle through a land border. You will not be allowed on public transportation, including airplanes.

Proof of Vaccination is Required to Enter Canada

If you are not vaccinated and are not a Canadian citizen, you will not be allowed to enter Canada. It’s as simple as that. Submit your proof of vaccination through the ArriveCAN app prior to arriving at the border. If you received your vaccine in the US, use your CDC Vaccination Card as proof. Your documentation must adhere to the following rules.

• Proof of vaccination must be in English or French (or a certified translation)
• In addition to submitting proof through the ArriveCAN app, you must carry a paper or digital copy of your vaccine documentation (in English or French) when you arrive at the border.
• You must have reached full vaccination status at least 2 weeks prior to arriving in Canada.

Like the US, Canada defines fully vaccinated as 2 weeks after your second shot, or 2 weeks after your shot for a single dose vaccine. The CBSA currently accepts four vaccines, including all three that the United States has authorized for use.

• Pfizer-BioNTech
• Moderna
• AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD
• Janssen/Johnson & Johnson

If you received a vaccine that is not one of the four listed above, you are not eligible to enter Canada.

Don’t Even Think of Using Fake Vaccine Documents

The CBSA recently fined 2 Americans $20,000 each for trying to enter Canada using fake vaccine cards. The maximum penalty for submitting false vaccination information is a fine of $750,000 and 6 months in prison. Don’t even think about doing it.

Americans Showing Symptoms of Any Illness Will Be Denied Entry into Canada

It frustrates me to no avail that we have to keep saying this over and over. If you’re sick, stay home and get better. Whatever you had planned will still be there, and you’ll enjoy it much more when you’re feeling better.

Check With Local Governments in the Province or Territory You’re Visiting for any Additional Entry Restrictions

Canada implements its COVID-19 restrictions very similarly to the United States. The federal government issues general rules, including for travel and the border. But they leave figuring out details of local restrictions to provincial, territorial, and local governments.

Check with the governments of the province and city you’ll be staying in to ensure you’re complying with all entry restrictions that extend beyond what the federal government requires. The last thing you want to do is comply with all the federal restrictions only to get in trouble because you weren’t aware of a rule at the provincial or city level.

Throughout the pandemic, Ontario and Québec have both been particularly strict. On the other hand, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta have been much more lenient.

Unvaccinated Children 12 and Under May Enter Canada with Fully Vaccinated Parents, But There’s a Catch

Unvaccinated children must quarantine for 14 days upon arrival in Canada. They must also take a molecular (PCR) test on the 8th day of quarantine. Once they’re out of quarantine, they must avoid group settings and places where people gather.

Please be aware this rule will likely change once health authorities approve vaccines for children 12 and under. Check with the Government of Canada for the latest information if you’re traveling with unvaccinated children.

You’ll Have a Larger Choice of Airports for Inbound International Flights into Canada

When the US-Canada border first closed in March, 2020, the Government of Canada directed all international flights carrying inbound passengers to land at one of four airports.

If you’re going to be flying into Canada, we have some good news. The federal government has expanded the list of approved airports that can accept international flights. In addition to the original four, you can now land at any of these five airports.

If you’re traveling by land, all ports of entry on the US-Canada border are open. However, please advised that they may have reduced or altered their hours of operation due to the ongoing pandemic. You can get the current hours of operation on the CBSA’s website.

All of the Pre-COVID Requirements to Enter Canada are Still in Place

Finally, don’t forget that all of the requirements to enter Canada prior to the COVID-19 pandemic are still all in place. Customs will still ask you everything they asked you in 2019 and years prior. Don’t try to bring in any food, weapons, drugs, or anything else you shouldn’t be.

Returning to the United States

There are currently few restrictions on US Citizens returning to the United States. If you’re returning to the US by air, you must present a negative COVID-19 test taken within three days of your departure or proof of recovery from a COVID-19 infection within the last 90 days.

You’ll submit the test results to the airline prior to boarding the plane. Under US federal law, airlines must deny boarding to all passengers on US-bound flights who do not provide proof of a negative test or recovery, regardless of their vaccination status.

At land borders coming into the United States, you will pass through customs as you always have. US Customs and Border Protection does not require proof of negative test or vaccination for US Citizens to re-enter the United States at land ports.

References

Conclusion

The partial reopening of the border into Canada is a beacon of hope in what’s been a brutal year and a half of closures. While we still have a long way to go in the fight against COVID-19, just remember these restrictions are only temporary.

I am certainly looking forward to when we can once again cross the border like we did in 2019. Until then, make sure you have all your required documents, be transparent and comply with border officials, and most importantly, enjoy your stay in Canada.

Top Photo: Fork in the Autoroute Just Ouside of Montréal
Les Cèdres, Québec, Canada – August, 2019

The post Want to Visit Canada Now that the Border is Open? Here’s Everything You Need to Know. appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Before we get too far, I want to say that the content of this post is designed for educational purposes only. I do not endorse the spread of disinformation or any conspiracy theories in any way. You should always back up your arguments with strong logic and easily-verifiable facts.

Recent statistics about disinformation over the past year or two are eye opening.

• 67% of Americans have interacted with disinformation or face news on social media.
• 56% of Facebook users cannot identify fake news that aligns with their own beliefs.
• Less than 30% of American adults trust the news media.
• In the third quarter of 2020 alone, Facebook saw over 1.8 billion engagements with fake news.

And that’s not even the tip of the iceberg.

How Do We Create and Spread Disinformation?

Sadly, it’s far too easy to create, publish, and spread disinformation these days. There is an endless list of different methods to create disinformation, but here are a few of the more popular ones.

• Manipulating Data or Statistics
• Using Logical Fallacies
• Making an argument that uses flawless logic, but the statements that are input into the argument are false
  • Example: Rocks are vegetables. I like to eat vegetables. Therefore, I like to eat rocks.
• Injecting technical jargon and fancy words into a statement that is otherwise complete BS
• Just making something up off the top of your head.

One of My First Memorable Encounters with Real World Disinformation

One my first encounters with disinformation in the “real world” came after graduating into the teeth of the Great Recession in 2009. Like so many people at the time, I struggled mightily to find work. As the election season began heating up, it was quite clear that Republicans were going to do very well in the 2010 midterms. At the time, Democrats controlled the House, the Senate, and the White House. The economic recovery was moving painfully slowly, and unemployment remained stubbornly high.

Then, all of a sudden, shortly before the 2010 midterms, the unemployment rate mysteriously dropped, and it dropped a lot. What happened? Was the recovery finally kicking into high gear? Not really. Turns out, the number of unemployed people hadn’t really changed at all.

Instead, the Obama administration had decided that they didn’t like the optics of high unemployment levels, so they changed how the unemployment rate was calculated so it looked lower than it actually was. Long term unemployment was a particular problem coming out of the Great Recession, so they simply stopped including the long-term unemployed when they calculated the unemployment rate. Thankfully, the media called them out on it. As a result, the different methods of calculating the unemployment rate became much more transparent.

The Most Insidious Way to Spread Disinformation: A Look at the 2020 Election and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Today, we’re going to look at one of the most subtle, insidious, and incredibly effective ways to spread disinformation. You don’t need to manipulate any data or statistics. Nor do you need to tie yourself in knots using pretzel logic to make your argument.

Indeed, all you need to use is a little equivocation. When you equivocate, you tell part of the truth, but not the whole truth. The part of the truth you don’t want revealed is usually obfuscated in vague language. When done effectively, you’re not telling the whole truth, but you’re not telling a bold-faced lie, either.

Disinformation Spread in the 2020 Election: It All Starts with a Simple Map

Take yourself back to election night. You’ve cast your vote, and it’s time to sit down and watch the election returns. Regardless of which TV network or website you’re watching, they’re filling in this map.

On the surface, this map looks completely harmless. More importantly for the TV networks, their audience understands this map without needing any explanation.

In reality, this map is one of the most misleading ways to present election returns that exists. It infuriates me to no end that people still use it. One of the most common arguments I hear from people who look at this map is that there is so much more red than blue on the map, there is no possible way Trump lost the election.

There’s A Lot This Map Does Not Show

It’s true, there is far more red than blue on the map. And that’s exactly why the map is so misleading. To pop holes in that argument, let’s look at what the map shows and what it doesn’t show.

To further show how useless that map is, let’s compare it to the results of the 2016 election. Recall that in the 2020 election, Biden won 306-232 in the Electoral College. In 2016, Trump won by that exact same margin. Now compare the two maps using the slider. Can you easily tell which candidate won?

Not only can you not easily tell which candidate won, the 2016 and 2020 maps are practically identical. The only county with any significant population that changed colors between the two elections was Maricopa County in Arizona. This map has played a significant role in Maricopa County being the target of so many election-related conspiracy theories.

Introduce Population and Vote Tallies into the Map to Improve It

In order to better present the election results, you’ll need to incorporate at least one of either population or number of votes cast. Ideally you can incorporate both. First, let’s look at map of population by county.

If you overlay the population map on either map of election results above, you should notice a very distinct correlation. The Democrat candidate won the more populous counties almost exclusively. When you have such a perfect correlation, it means that you have figured out which statistic is skewing the data on your maps and leading to the spread of disinformation.

So exactly how do we show population on our map? The easiest way is to put a colored dot inside each county instead of shading the entire county. Then scale the diameter of the dot based not on population, but instead on the number of votes cast for the winning candidate. Like our choropleth map, the dots be shaded blue or red to indicate which candidate won.

It’s not perfect, but it gives a much more accurate picture of the 2020 election results.

For comparison, here’s the same map for the 2016 election.

But Wait, Trump Won the 2016 Election 306-232. This Map Doesn’t Reflect That!

Good catch! You’re partially correct. Trump did win the 2016 election 306-232. And the 2016 map does show a lot more blue on it. So what gives? Trump won the Electoral College vote in 2016, but Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. The election maps with the scaled dots on them reflect the popular vote, not the Electoral College vote.

A Look at 2004: The Most Recent Election the Republican Candidate Won the Popular Vote

The 2004 presidential election marks the only time in recent history that the Republican Candidate won the popular vote. In 2004, President George W. Bush won both the Electoral College (286-251) and 50.7% of the popular vote (62 million to 59 million). Our map does correctly indicate that Bush won the popular vote that year.

So Can We Create an Electoral College Map That Does Not Spread Disinformation?

Because the Electoral College is a state-level process, it’s impossible to do so at the county level. However, we can recreate the map using scaled dots to represent the Electoral College. Like the county-level choropleth maps, population skews the Electoral College choropleth maps, leaving the ripe for the spread of disinformation as well.

Can Any Maps Debunk the Spread of Election Disinformation and Conspiracy Theories?

Maps can certainly explain what happened in Trump’s rise to power in 2016 and Biden’s triumph in 2020. Unfortunately, people that believe in conspiracy theories are often so irrational, it’s unlikely to convince them.

To show what led to Trump’s rise as well as his demise, let’s brainstorm a few changes we may want to look at when comparing the 2020 election to 2016.

• Demographics
• Voter behavior
• Candidate popularity
• Voter turnout

To save you the hassle, we’re going to look at the total voter turnout between the two elections, as well as who those voters were voting for. We’ll do this for each county. The math is simple, just addition and subtraction.

total_vote_difference = total_votes_2020 - total_votes_2016
dem_vote_difference = dem_votes_2020 - dem_votes_2016
rep_vote_difference = rep_votes_2020 - rep_votes_2016

To determine which candidate gained the most ground, simple compare the Democrat vote differences to the Republican vote differences.

vote_difference = dem_vote_difference - rep_vote_difference

If vote_difference is a positive number, it means the Democrats gained votes. If it’s negative, the Republicans gained votes. The larger the magnitude of vote_difference, the bigger those gains were.

Let’s Look at Maps of Vote Gains

Let’s look at those maps. In addition to comparing 2020 to 2016, I’ve included a map that compares 2016 to 2012.

Let’s also look at total voter turnout in each county.

There are a few conclusions I can draw from these maps to combat disinformation and conspiracy theories.

All right, enough about the election. Let’s move on and look at some COVID-19 data.

The COVID-19 Pandemic: A Stunning Exercise in the Spread of Disinformation

If there’s anything that’s torn through the United States faster than COVID-19 itself, it’s the disinformation associated with it. No matter what facet of the pandemic we’re talking about, we cannot agree with our fellow Americans on anything.

Want to know what’s even more frightening? It’s even easier to spread disinformation about COVID-19 than it is about the election. And we don’t have to worry about the election putting us in the hospital or killing us.

The Default COVID-19 Maps are Plagued by the Same Population Issue the Election Is

By default, most media outlets show new daily COVID-19 cases by either state or county. While that’s perfectly fine if that’s what you’re looking for, it is a terrible map if you’re trying to identify hot spots. Here’s a recent map of new daily COVID-19 cases in the United States. Take a guess as to where the hottest spot for COVID-19 is.

Looking at this map, you’ll likely identify two hotspots: Florida and the Southwest. Yes, COVID-19 is raging in Florida, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas, but neither of those spots is where the worst outbreak is. And where is that outbreak right now? It’s in Missouri and Arkansas, but you wouldn’t know it looking at this map.

Color Schemes: The Most Insidious Way to Spread Disinformation

The color bar on any map seems innocent enough. Its primary purpose it to make your map look really good. How bad can it be?

Turns out, the color scheme is particularly deceptive. You don’t need to do anything to the actual data. Nor do you need to twist yourself up in pretzel logic just to make your point. Even worse, people choose bad color schemes accidentally all the time, spreading disinformation without even realizing it.

While there are all kinds of ways to manipulate the color bar, here are the three most common.

Change the Upper and/or Lower Limits of Your Color Bar

Look at the map of new daily cases above. The data range goes from 0 to 1,462 new daily cases. Now what would happen if I increased the upper limit by an order of magnitude, from 1,500 to 15,000? All of the counties would be shaded either white or very light green, and it would look like there’s no COVID-19 at all.

Conversely, what if I reduced the upper limit from 1,500 down to 5? It would look like the world is about to end, with COVID-19 spreading everywhere. That’s clearly not an accurate representation of what’s going on, either.

Don’t forget, both maps show the exact same dataset. All we did was change the color bar.

Change the Break Points of Your Color Bar

By default, most mapping and GIS programs default to breaking the color bar up in even increments or so that points are distributed evenly throughout the color bar. While neither is perfect, they work well is many cases.

Now let’s take this to the extreme. For this example, you’re a corrupt leader who wants to publish a map showing no COVID-19, despite the fact that it’s raging in your area. Using the same 0 to 1,500 scale, you set the first section of the color bar to cover 0 to 1,300. The remaining colors are set in increments of 50: 1,301 to 1,350; 1,351 to 1,400, and so forth.

That map makes it look like there is basically no COVID-19 spreading in the United States.

Alter the Number of Breaks in Your Color Bar

While there are certainly isolated circumstances when you want to increase the number of breaks, this method is far more effective when you reduce the number of breaks in your color bar. In our original map, there are 7 breaks for a total of 8 colors.

Now, let’s reduce the color bar from 8 colors to 2. The light yellow color will cover 0 to 750 new cases per day. Likewise, the dark blue color will cover 751 to 1,500 new daily cases.

As for the result? Once again, it looks like there is no COVID-19 in the United States. On other days, though, some areas that are raging look like there’s nothing there. At the same time, other areas that do not have a problem look like COVID-19 is exploding out of control. Talk about disinformation!

I Shouldn’t Give You Any More Ideas to Spread Disinformation, But…

I know what you’re thinking. There’s no way people can so blatantly manipulate the color bar and get away with it. Your intuitions are correct, but those examples we just looked at are extreme examples.

You can easily combine these methods to much more subtly mislead your audience. There are also plenty of other ways to mess with the color scheme that I haven’t touched on here. One easy way is to invert the colors. You can also use an illogical progression of colors throughout the color bar.

This is why when you look at any kind of figure, you should always verify both the color scheme and its limits before you make any assumptions about it. All it takes is a quick glance at the legend.

Use Logarithmic Scaling to Reduce Color Bar Manipulation

So is there anything we can do to reduce such easy color bar manipulation? If you’re dealing with a large range of data, use logarithmic scaling. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the logarithmic scale, it’s simple.

Instead of incrementing your axis in multiples of a number, you’re incrementing it by powers of that number. For example, a linear scale using multiples of 10 would be 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, and so on. A logarithmic scale using powers of 10 would be 1, 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 1,000,000, and so on.

Why a logarithmic scale? First off, it has preset intervals, so it’s very difficult to subtly alter the breaking points in your color bar. The logarithmic scale’s preset intervals also limit or prevent the data from shifting if you change the limits of the color bar. For example, on the COVID-19 map, 400 new daily cases will fall in the 100 to 1,000 section, no matter how high I set the upper limit of the color bar.

What Color Scale Do I Use?

On my COVID-19 Dashboard Map, I use a hybrid logarithmic scale. It’s simply a logarithmic scale with breaks half way through each section of the scale. So instead of break points being at 1, 10, 100, 1,000, and so forth, they are at 1, 5, 10, 50, 100, 500, 1,000, 5,000, and so on.

The reason I chose a hybrid logarithmic scale is because the data range was not big enough to use a straight logarithmic scale. As a result, the map would have been too misleading, and would not have accurately shown areas where COVID-19 is surging.

Look at Other Parameters to Counter Disinformation

Listen to your gut. If it’s telling you a map or figure is misleading, it likely is. Regardless if you’re looking at published map or creating a map to publish, look at other parameters in the same dataset. The more parameters that backup your reasoning, the stronger your argument will be.

Normalize the Data by Population

In our COVID-19 dataset, the easiest way to get around the population issue is to normalize the data by population. Instead of the raw number of new daily cases, plot the number of new daily cases per million people.

That’s a big step in the right direction. You can at least see the big outbreak of cases in Missouri and Arkansas. However, Florida is also getting hit very hard right now, and this map makes Florida look a lot better than it actually is.

14-Day Change in New Daily Cases

Next up, let’s look at the two-week change in new daily cases. It’s a great map for identifying which way cases are trending, but it can be very misleading if you don’t know how to interpret it.

For example, if a county has just peaked and is starting to decline, the county will show bright green. Woo-hoo, right! Not so fast. You’re just past the peak. COVID-19 is still raging.

Here’s what the recent map looks like.

You should never rely on this map alone to make any decisions related to COVID-19. When you start analyzing the map, keep in mind that this map only shows the trends. It does not show how much COVID-19 is in the counties. Look at Massachusetts. It looks like it’s in worse shape than Missouri and Arkansas.

The map doesn’t show that Massachusetts has incredibly low case loads because it’s the most vaccinated state in the country. On the other hand, Missouri and Arkansas have some of the lowest vaccination rates in the country, which is why the Delta variant is ripping through their communities at such an astonishing rate.

Active Cases Per Million People

The number of active cases per million people looks very similar to the new daily case loads per million people. As a result, you can see the big surge in Missouri and Arkansas, but the surges in both Florida and Las Vegas are lost in the noise.

Odds Any One Person You Interact With in Public is Infected

When I drove across the country at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic last winter, I wanted to minimize my risk of contracting the virus. Calculating the odds that any one random person you cross paths with is a great way to do that. All you need to do is divide the number of active cases by the population.

Again, it’s plagued by the same issue. You can see the big COVID-19 outbreak in Missouri and Arkansas. However, it doesn’t pop off the page and instantly draw your eye to it. Nor can you really see the ongoing surges in Florida or Las Vegas.

None of These Plots Show Hot Spots Well. What Now?

I know what you’re thinking. You just spent this entire post explaining how easy it is do spread disinformation through color bar manipulation. You can’t be about to suggest it now just to show where the COVID-19 outbreaks are.

Rest assured, we will not be doing anything to the color bars. Doing otherwise is flat out hypocritical. Instead, we can use Matt’s Risk Index. The index is essentially a weighted average of all of the parameters we just looked at. It’s designed to make hot spots and high-risk areas really jump off the page. If you’re interested in the math behind Matt’s Risk Index, we discussed it in detail when I first unveiled the index last winter.

Before looking at Matt’s Risk Index, recall where the hot spots in the United States are right now.

• Missouri and Arkansas
• Florida Peninsula
• Clark County, Nevada (Las Vegas)
• Los Angeles County, California

LA County’s huge population likely keeps its risk level quite low for now, but the other three areas should leap off the page when you look at Matt’s Risk Index.

The Matt’s Risk Index map also seems to confirm health officials’ concerns that the southeast US is at very high risk for a Delta variant surge. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee are some of the least vaccinated states in the country, and there are significant outbreaks of the Delta variant on either side of them right now.

My Favorite Example: Georgia’s Stunningly Boneheaded Decision to Spread COVID-19 Disinformation

What goes through the minds of some people when they make graphics is beyond me. In May, 2020 the Georgia Department of Health tried to make its argument to its citizens that it was okay to reopen everything and resume our normal day-to-day lives. COVID-19 was a thing of the past.

To support their argument, the State of Georgia published a chart that at first glance showed steadily declining COVID-19 cases. Unfortunately, when you took a closer look, one small problem appeared. The dates were in the wrong order.

Where does Sunday take place twice a week? And May 2 come before April 26?

The State of Georgia, as it provides up-to-date data on the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the latest bungling of tracking data for the novel coronavirus, a recently posted bar chart on the Georgia Department of Public Health’s website appeared to show good news: new confirmed cases in the counties with the most infections had dropped every single day for the past two weeks.

In fact, there was no clear downward trend.

Atlanta Journal Constitution

You can read the full story from the Atlanta Journal Constitution.

Thankfully, Governor Brian Kemp’s office quickly fixed the error as soon as they got called out for spreading disinformation. But there is no reasonable excuse at all to be publishing that garbage in the first place, let alone the middle of major public health emergency.

Not surprisingly, the late night comedians had a field day with it.

Data and Source Code That Generates the Maps in This Post

I believe in transparency, especially when it comes to the spread of disinformation. You can find the Python code and the data that is used to generate every map in this post in our Bitbucket Repository.

Data Sources

Conclusion

In today’s era of disinformation, it’s shockingly easy to spread disinformation. Maps are one of the easiest, subtlest, and most effective ways to spread a wealth of disinformation. The double-barreled combination of the 2020 Election and the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States with a tsunami of stupidity that has proven time and time again to have deadly consequences.

Thanks to data gurus around the world, disinformation is being called out more than ever before. Armed with the proper knowledge and logic, you can easily recognize, call out, and disprove disinformation. Today, I ask you for one small favor. Reach out to your favorite data guru, and express your appreciation for their work. Follow them on social media, donate some money to their cause, or simply thank them for their efforts. It’s a small gesture that can make a big impact both in your world and theirs.

Top Photo: The Snow-Capped Sierra Nevada Provide a Stunning Backdrop to a Beautiful Winter Day at Lake Tahoe
Glenbrook, Nevada – February, 2020

The post 13 Stunning Examples Showing How Easy It Is to Spread Disinformation without Manipulating Any Data appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Today, we’re going to take our analysis to the next level. You’ll be given a table of COVID-19 data for each US State in CSV format for a single day during the COVID-19 pandemic. The CSV file has the state abbreviations, but does not include any geometry. Instead, you’ll be given a GeoJSON file that contains the state boundaries. You’ll link the data to the state boundaries through a process called region mapping and create a choropleth map of the data.

Why Do We Use Region Mapping to Create Choropleth Maps?

The main reason we use region mapping is for performance. When you use region mapping, you only need to load your geometry once, regardless of how many data points use that geometry. Each data point uses a unique identifier to “map” it to the geometry. You can use the ISO state or country codes, or you can make your own ID’s. Without region mapping, you need to load the geometry for each data point that uses it.

To show you the performance gains, let’s use COVID-19 data as an example. In our COVID-19 Dashboard’s Map, you can plot data by state for several countries. For Canada, the GeoJSON file that contains the provincial boundaries is 150 MB. We’re roughly 500 days into the COVID-19 pandemic. A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation shows just how much data you’d need to load without region mapping.

data_load_size = size_of_geojson * number_of_days
data_load_size = (150 MB) * (500 days)
data_load_size = 75,000 MB = 75 GB 

Keep in mind, that 75 GB is just for the provincial boundaries. It does not include any of the COVID-19 data. And it only grows bigger and bigger every day.

Using region mapping, you only need to load the provincial boundaries once. With the GeoJSON file, that’s only 150 MB. In our COVID-19 map, we actually take it a step further. Instead of GeoJSON format, we use Mapbox Vector Tiles (MVT), which is much more efficient for online maps. The MVT geometry for the Canadian provincial boundaries is only 2 MB. Compared to possibly 75 GB of geometry data, 2 MB wins hands down.

What is a Choropleth Map?

A choropleth map displays statistical data on a map using shading patterns on predetermined geographical areas. Those geographic areas are almost always political boundaries, such country, state, or county borders. They work great for representing variability of a given measurement across a region.

An Overview of Creating a Choropleth Map in Python GeoPandas

The process we’ll be programming in our Python script is breathtakingly simple using GeoPandas.

1. Read in the US State Boundaries from the GeoJSON file.
2. Import the COVID-19 data from the CSV file.
3. Link the data to the state boundaries using the ISO 3166-2 code (state abbreviations)
4. Plot the data on a choropleth map.

Required Python Dependencies

Before we get started, you’ll need to install four Python modules. You can easily install them using either anaconda or pip. If you have already installed them, you can skip this step.

• geopandas
• pandas
• matplotlib
• contextily

The first item in our Python script is to import those four dependencies.

import geopandas
import pandas
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import contextily as ctx

Define A Few Constants That We’ll Use Throughout Our Python Script

There are a few values we’ll use throughout the script. Let’s define a few constants so we can easily reference them.

GEOJSON_FILE = "USStates.geojson"
CSV_FILE = "usa-covid-20210102.csv"

# 3857 - Mercator Projection
XBOUNDS = (-1.42e7, -0.72e7)
YBOUNDS = (0.26e7, 0.66e7)

The XBOUNDS and YBOUNDS constants define the bounding box for the map, in the x and y coordinates of the Mercator projections, which we’ll be using in this tutorial. They are not in latitude and longitude. We’ve set them so the left edge of the map is just off the west coast (~127°W) and the right edge is just off the east coast (~65°W). Likewise, the top of the map is just above the US-Canada border (~51°N), and the bottom edge is far enough south (~23°N) to include Florida peninsula and the Keys.

Read in the US State Boundaries Using GeoPandas

GeoPandas is smart enough to be able to automatically figure out the file format of most geometry files, including ESRI Shapefiles and GeoJSON files. As a result, we can load the GeoJSON the exact same way as we loaded the ESRI Shapefiles in previous tutorials.

geojson = geopandas.read_file(GEOJSON_FILE)

Read in Data From the CSV File

You may have noticed that we did not import Python’s built in csv module. That was done intentionally. Instead, we’ll use Pandas to read the CSV.

On the surface, it may look like the main benefit is that you only need a single line of code to read in the CSV data with Pandas. After all, it takes a block of code to do the same with Python’s standard csv library. However, you’ll really reap the benefits in the next step when we go to map the data to the state boundaries.

data = pandas.read_csv(CSV_FILE)

Map the CSV Data to the State Boundaries in the GeoJSON File

When you read the GeoJSON file in with the geopandas.read_file() method, Python stores it as a Pandas DataFrame object. If you were to read in the CSV data using Python’s built-in csv library, Python would store the data as a csv.reader object.

Here’s where the magic happens. By reading in the CSV data with Pandas instead of the built-in csv library, Python also stores the CSV data as a Pandas DataFrame object. If we has used Python’s built-in csv library, mapping the CSV data to the state boundaries would be like trying to combine two recipes, where one was in imperial units, and the other was in metric units.

The Pandas developers built the DataFrame objects to be easily split, merged, and manipulated, which means that once again, we can do it with just a single line of code.

full_dataset = geojson.merge(data, left_on="STATE_ID", right_on="iso3166_2")

Let’s go over what that line of code means.

• geojson.merge(data, ... ): Merge the CSV data store in the data variable into the US State boundaries stored in the geojson variable.
• left_on="STATE_ID": The property that contains the common unique identifier in the GeoJSON file is called STATE_ID.
• right_on="iso3166_2": The property (column) that contains the corresponding unique identifier in the CSV data is called iso3166_2.

The ISO 3166-2 Code: What’s in the Mapping Identifier?

In this tutorial, we’re using each state’s unique ISO 3166-2 code to map the CSV data to the state boundaries in the GeoJSON. So what exactly is an ISO 3166-2 code? It’s a unique code that contains the country code and a unique ID for each state. The International Organization for Standardization, or ISO, maintains a standardized set of codes that every country in the world uses.

In many countries, including the United States and Canada, the ISO 3166-2 codes use the same state and province abbreviations that their respective postal services use. As you’ll see in the table, though, not all countries do.

Write a Function to Generate a Choropleth Map

Once the CSV data has been successfully linked to the state boundaries in the GeoJSON, everything is stored in a single Pandas DataFrame object. As a result, the code to plot the data will be nearly identical to the maps we created in previous GeoPandas tutorials.

Like the tornado track tutorial, you’ll be creating several different maps. To avoid running afoul of the DRY (Don’t Repeat Yourself) principle, let’s put the plotting code into a function that we can call.

First, let’s define the function. We’ll pass it X parameters.

def choropleth_map(mapped_dataset, column, plot_type):

Initialize the Figure

Inside that function, let’s first initialize the figure that will hold our choropleth map.

ax = mapped_dataset.plot(figsize=(12,6), column=column, alpha=0.75, legend=True, cmap="YlGnBu", edgecolor="k"

There’s a lot in this step, so let’s unpack it.

• figsize=(12,6): Plot should be 12 inches wide by 6 inches tall
• column=column: Plot the column name that was passed to the choropleth_map() function.
• alpha=0.75: Make the map 75% opaque (25% transparent) so you can see through it slightly.
• legend=True: Include the color bar legend on the figure
• cmap="YlGnBu": Use a Yellow-Green-Blue color map
• edgecolor="k": Color the state outlines/borders black

Remove Axis Ticks and Labels From Your Choropleth Map

If we use the standard WGS-84 (EPSG:4326) projection to plot the continental US, the map comes out short and wide. For a better aspect ratio, we’ll convert the data into the Mercator Projection (EPSG:3857). Unfortunately, that means the x and y axes will no longer be in latitude and longitude, and will instead be in the coordinates of the Mercator Projection. To avoid any confusion, let’s just hide the labels on the x and y axes.

ax.set_xticks([])
ax.set_yticks([])

Set the Title of Your Choropleth Map

Next, we’ll set the title, exactly like we’ve done in previous tutorials.

title = "COVID-19: {} in the United States\n2 January, 2021".format(title)
ax.set_title(plot_type)

Because we’re only working with a specific date, we’ve hard-coded the date into the function. However, if you’re working with multiple dates, you can easily update the code so that the correct dates display on the maps.

Zoom the Map to Show the Continental United States

Now, let’s set the bounding box to show only the Lower 48.

ax.set_xlim(*XBOUNDS)
ax.set_ylim(*YBOUNDS)

Add the Basemap For Your Choropleth Map

Penultimately, add the basemap for the choropleth map. We’ll use the same Stamen TonerLite basemap that we used in both the Hurricane Dorian Cone of Uncertainty and the maps of the 2011 tornado tracks. We’ll get the projection from the dataset so we don’t have to worry about the basemap and the data being in different projections.

ctx.add_basemap(ax, crs=full_dataset.crs.to_string(), source=ctx.provicers.Stamen.TonerLite, zoom=4)

Save Your Choropleth Map to a png File

Finally, save the plots to a png image file.

output_path = "covid19_{}_usa.png"
plt.savefig(output_path)

Let’s Generate 4 Choropleth Maps

Now that we have our function to generate the choropleth maps, let’s make 4 maps of COVID-19 data on 2 January, 2021, which was the peak of the winter wave in the United States.

• New Daily Cases
• Total Cumulative Cases
• New Daily Deaths
• Total Cumulative Deaths

columns_to_plot = [
    "new_cases", 
    "confirmed",
    "new_deaths",
    "dead"
]

plot_types = [
    "New Daily Cases",
    "Total Cumulative Cases",
    "New Daily Deaths",
    "Total Cumulative Deaths",
]

for column, plot_type in zip(columns, plot_types):
    choropleth_map(full_dataset, columns, plot_type)
    print("Successfully Generated Choropleth Map for {}...".format(plot_type))

Let There Be Maps

After running the script, you’ll find 4 choropleth maps in the script directory.

Download the Script and Run It Yourself

We encourage you to download the script from our Bitbucket Repository and run it yourself. Play around with it and see what other kinds of choropleth maps you can come up with.

Conclusion

Region mapping is an incredibly powerful way to efficiently display massive amounts of data on a map. For example, when we load the Canadian provincial data in our COVID-19 map, the combination of region mapping plus the Mapbox Vector tiles has resulted in a 99.997% reduction in the size of the provincial boundary being loaded. These savings are critical to the success of online GIS projects. Nobody in their right mind is going to sit around and wait for 75 GB of state boundaries to download every time the map loads.

Many people think that high-level tasks such as region mapping are confined to tools like ESRI ArcGIS. While Python GeoPandas is certainly not a replacement for a tool like ArcGIS, it’s a perfect solution for organizations that don’t have the budget for expensive software licenses or don’t do enough GIS work to require those licenses. If you’re ready, we can help you get started building maps with GeoPandas today.

If you’re ready to try a few exercises yourself, we’ve got a couple challenges for you.

Next Steps, Challenge 1:

Revisit our tutorial plotting 2011 tornado data. Revise that script so that instead of generating a map of the tornado tracks, you create a choropleth map of the number of tornadoes to strike each state in 2011. I’ll give you a hint to get started. You don’t need to use region mapping for this because the data is already embedded in the shapefile.

Next Steps, Challenge 2:

In the Bitbucket Repository, you’ll find a CSV File of COVID-19 data for each country for 2 January, 2021. Go online and find a GeoJSON or ESRI Shapefile of world country borders. Then use region mapping to create the same 4 choropleth maps we generated in this tutorial, except you should output a map of the world countries, not a map of US States. I’ve included all of the ISO Country Codes in the CSV file so you can use the Alpha 2, Alpha 3, or Numeric codes.

Top Photo: Beautiful Geology in Red Rock Country
Sedona, Arizona – August, 2016

The post Python Tutorial: How to Create a Choropleth Map Using Region Mapping appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

In the meantime, maybe your target destination hasn’t fully reopened. Perhaps you’re not quite ready to venture out again. Or, if you’re just lazy, that’s perfectly fine, too. We don’t judge. It’s surprisingly easy to “travel” the world without leaving the comforts of home (or even your couch).

Food

We all have to eat. Why not turn it into an adventure? Most food is heavily tied to a particular location. Don’t believe me? What’s the first place that comes to mind when you think of sausages and beer? Hopefully Germany. What about tacos? Jerk chicken? Or Pork Lo Mein? All you have to do is schedule your meals around your favorite destinations.

Start your day south of the border with a classic Mexican breakfast. Huevos rancheros served on warm homemade corn tortillas. Top it with a salsa fresca made from fresh herbs and veggies you just cut from your garden.

For lunch, jet off to the romantic coast of Italy. Cook a margherita pizza on a Tuscan-style crust that you let rise in the warm morning sun. Top it with fresh Italian herbs and spices and serve al fresco. There is nothing better than a margherita pizza made from fresh tomatoes and basil you grew yourself.

Wrap up your world adventure on the bustling streets of Bangkok sampling some of Thailand’s world-famous street food. For dinner, serve up some Kai Khrapao (Basil Chicken) or Pad Thai with a side of grilled satay. And don’t forget a salad. My favorites are the Som Tam (Green Papaya Salad) or the Thai mint and cucumber salad.

Want to make it even more of an adventure? Try cooking it yourself. All of those dishes I mentioned above are easy to make with ingredients that are readily available at any American supermarket.

Music

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, music was my go-to escape. It was so easy to get away from all of the bad news, loneliness, and stupidity. Like food, most music is tied to a particular geographic area. And you can zip around the world much more quickly and efficiently than just through your three daily meals. In fact, let’s go for an adventure right now.

Let’s start on the warm tropical shores of Jamaica. You can almost feel the refreshing trade winds blowing off the Caribbean.

On our way out of the Caribbean, we’ll make a quick stop on the island of Martinique. The French Antilles are home to the upbeat zouk and kompa rhythms.

You can’t have a music tour without a stop in Ireland.

If you can’t get enough drinking in Ireland, try your hand at a drinking song in Russia.

Then, we’re off to Africa, which is the birthplace of so much of the musical influences across Latin America, the Caribbean, and even the United States.

Recharge your batteries in Southeast Asia with a meditation retreat.

Back on North American soil, visit the rich cultural centers of Mexico. I can’t wait to smell the shrimp on the grill at my favorite street taco stand again.

And we’ll come full circle back to the Caribbean and return home via the US Virgin Islands.

If you’re looking to up your home travel game even more, try combining food and music for an even deeper experience.

Maps

I may be a bit biased being a map geek, but I love exploring new areas on maps. Regardless of whether you’re poking around your own back yard or a new city on the other side of the globe, there are always new places to explore. Give it a try.

Google Street View

Supercharge your map exploration. Virtually put yourself on the ground pretty much anywhere in the world you desire. It’s about as close to traveling as you can get without actually traveling. Traverse the globe in a matter of seconds. And get inspiration for your next trip. I’d be lying to you if I told you that I didn’t waste plenty of hours on Google Street View when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Hit the ground on the Champs-Élysées in Paris.

Soak in the breathtaking views of the South African coast along the Chapman’s Peak Drive near Cape Town.

Trek to Everest Base Camp in Nepal.

Go whitewater rafting through the Grand Canyon

Swim in the cenotes in the Yucatán.

And drive into the guts of the Australian Outback.

The world is quite literally at your fingertips. Go explore it.

Photography and Art

I love looking at travel and nature photography. It’s a way to relive fond memories. But more importantly, it’s a way to find motivation for your next trip, add items to my bucket list as well as explore new places. After looking at these photos of Lake Tahoe, don’t you really want to go there?

Meditation

Whenever you think of meditation, you probably think of mindfulness, peace, and relaxation. However, when you try to reduce stress through meditation, you need to remove your mind from the source of stress, which is usually close by. Then you can transport your mind to where it can relax. For most people, that’s somewhere in nature, such as at the beach, in the mountains, or in the forest.

Scents

Your sense of smell triggers some of your most powerful memories. In fact, it’s such a powerful trigger that businesses sometimes make their stores smell certain ways because certain scents actually boost their sales. You’ll notice these scents are most prominent around the holidays in November and December.

You can easily use scented candles, air fresheners, and fragrance sprays around your home. Transport yourself to the beach, mountains, river, meadow, and beyond. Nowadays, you can even use scents of your favorite foods and holidays to make your “getaway”. Pair your scents with any other item in this post for an even fuller experience.

Television, Netflix, and YouTube

Those of you who know me know that I mostly watch funny shows and sports on TV. Even though I don’t watch a lot of TV, I also watch travel shows. You can find them through your cable provider, most streaming services, and even on YouTube.

Why watch travel shows? First, they were a great escape from all of the negativity and loneliness associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, they’re great motivation. Obviously, you can get plenty of inspiration for places to travel and things to do. However, I don’t have anything remotely close to the budget that many of these shows have.

Instead, I get much more mileage using travel shows as inspiration to improve my skills in photography, videography, and video production. I feel incredibly fortunate to be able to do all three professionally. However, I believe that no matter how good or how well-known you are at something, there’s always somewhere you can improve.

Here are the trailers for a few of my favorite travel shows.

Your “Happy Place”

When you’re faced with adversity or under heavy pressure, close your eyes and escape to your Happy Place. A happy place is a place in your mind you can go to relax and re-focus yourself, where all your worries will fade away.

Take it from the great coach Chubbs Peterson in Happy Gilmore.

Conclusion

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, we all still have a bit of hesitancy to resume our 2019 travel activities. Indeed, travel is still largely restricted on the international scale. If you’re itching to travel again, but are still worried about the pandemic, there are plenty of ways to escape and “travel” without leaving your house. Don’t hesitate to combine any or all of the methods we’ve discussed above. It’s not the same as actually being out on the road. But it’s still a pretty rewarding experience.

Top Photo: The Canadian Flag Proudly Flies over Highway 401
London, Ontario, Canada – August, 2019

The post 9 Clever Ways to Travel Without Leaving Your Couch appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.