We’re going to look at the same four models as we did for Hurricanes Henri and Ida last summer. However, I just launched a complete redesign of this blog less than a week ago. That redesign will allow us to analyze the models in a way that’s much easier to compare, and hopefully much easier to understand. Let’s get started.

Big Picture Overview

When I look at the “big picture” meteorological setup, I immediately see just how similar this setup is to the October, 2021 nor’easter. That storm slammed into southern New England on 26 October, packing wind gusts over 100 mph (160 km/h) and heavy rains. Trees and power lines were down all over the place, knocking out power for several days. At one point all of Massachusetts south and east of the I-95 corridor was 100% without power.

Likewise, the current storm is a rapidly strengthening, or “bombing” cyclone. To be classified as a bomb cyclone, a storm must undergo a 24 millibar pressure drop in 24 hours. Will that happen with this storm? It remains to be seen, but it’s quite likely.

On the upper air map, you’ll see a large, powerful trough digging south over the Carolinas. That trough will rapidly strengthen, undergoing bombogenesis as it pull north. Look at all the energy, shown in the orange and red colors, off the coast of Georgia and Florida.

What Causes Bombogenesis?

There’s one major feature on the above map that jumps out at me. See the corridor of strong winds that stretches from northern Mexico to the southern tip of Florida? That’s the subtropical jet, which serves two purposes here.

1. Funnels a nearly endless stream of rich tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing bomb cyclone.
2. Exerts a west-to-east force on the southern edge of the nor’easter, which accelerates the spin of the upper-level low.

Both influences will have significant impacts on rain and snowfall totals, as well as wind speeds. We’ll dive into those details shortly. Furthermore, even without the subtropical jet, the storm will track pretty much right over the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream alone provides more than enough fuel for the storm to rapidly strengthen and maintain itself.

Similarities to the October, 2021 Bomb Cyclone

So just how similar are the meteorological setups between this storm and the October nor’easter?

• Both storms are bomb cyclones
• They both formed off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas
• There is an immense amount of tropical moisture to tap into from the Gulf Stream
• Steering currents are nearly identical

This Bomb Cyclone will not Impact New England like the October Storm Did

The greatest impact of the October storm was the widespread power outages. As a New England native, I’ve been through some monster storms over the years. I’ve never seen power outages and downed trees anywhere close to the magnitude we saw following the October nor’easter.

Thankfully, it’s extremely unlikely you’ll see anything remotely close to the magnitude of power outages in October. The biggest difference is that the leaves are no longer on the trees. As a result, the surface area of the trees is far less, meaning that it takes much greater winds to do the same amount of damage. Additionally, the most vulnerable limbs, branches, and trees came down in the October storm. This time around, trees and limbs won’t come down nearly as easily. Don’t get complacent, though. The risk of power outages is definitely there with this storm.

However, where you may dodge one bullet, there are others you’ll have to content with. The shift from fall into winter brings in much colder air. The precipitation in the October storm all fell as rain. This time around, you’ll be dealing with snow. And lots of it.

A Better Storm For Comparison

In fact, for a much similar storm, forget the October nor’easter. Instead, go back to exactly 7 years ago today – 27 January, 2015. That day, the first Blizzard of 2015 dumped over 3 feet of snow across southern New England. It kicked off an infamous snowmageddon winter, that plunged the region into a months-long deep freeze.

All right, enough history. Let’s dive into the models.

Model Comparison: Bomb Cyclone Track and Timing

Let’s look at the same models we did with our analysis of Hurricanes Henri and Ida last summer. If you’ve forgotten those models, here they are.

For tracking and timing, you want to focus on the position of the center of the surface low, denoted by the red “L” on the map. In addition, note the timestamp on the upper left corner of the map. Those timestamps are in Zulu time, or UTC. Eastern time is 5 hours behind UTC. Don’t worry about the wind barbs for now. We’ll look at those in much more detail shortly. Click on any image to view it in full size.

As you can see, the American, European, and Canadian models are in very close agreement with each other. They show the the low passing just offshore of Cape Cod and the Islands around 00Z on Sunday (7 PM EST Saturday). The UKMET shouldn’t be discounted, either. It’s timing agrees with the other three models. Steering currents over the Appalachians can easily push the storm further offshore. However, it’s unlikely that it will pass any closer to the coast than what the GFS, ECMWF, or GDPS indicate.

Model Comparison: Bomb Cyclone Intensity (Pressure)

All right, it’s time to answer the million dollar question: will this storm bomb? To do this, we’ll need to figure out when each model expects the storm to reach its peak intensity, or minimum pressure. Then, we’ll compare the pressure at its peak intensity to the pressure 24 hours earlier. Remember, in order for a storm to be considered a bomb cyclone, it must undergo a 24 millibar pressure drop in 24 hours. Here is when each model expects the storm to reach its peak intensity.

Now, all we need to do is compare it to the same plots 24 hours earlier.

So do the models expect the storm to bomb? Here are their official predictions.

Models are usually not this assertive, but that’s a pretty definitive yes. The storm will bomb. Cue Toots and the Maytals.

Wind Forecast

Whenever a nor’easter undergoes bombogenesis, one thing is assured: there will be wind. Lots of it. So just how much wind will there be? You probably remember the October bomb cyclone, which brought 100-plus mph (160 km/h) wind gusts to southeastern Massachusetts. Thankfully, I’ve got some good news for you: you won’t see winds like that with this storm.

Look North to Canada for the Best Indicators of Potential Wind Speeds

The fiercest nor’easters get their winds from the pressure gradient between the bombing low and a strong high pressure system over southern Québec. But have a look at this. The high over Québec is much further north and east than it traditionally is for the really bad storms. In fact, it’s not over Québec at all. It’s actually over Newfoundland and Labrador.

Because the high is further away, the pressure gradient won’t be as tight. As a result, wind speeds won’t be as high as they would have been had the high been closer. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a tight pressure gradient, and you’ll still get plenty of wind. It just won’t be as bad as it could have been. Combined with the expectation that the center of the low will pass offshore instead of right over Cape Cod and the Islands, I expect winds to be less than the bomb cyclone that hit New England last October. Let’s look at the models.

When I look at the models’ wind predictions, I prefer to look at the sustained winds about 400 to 500 meters above the ground, at 925 mb. In coastal areas, models can sometimes underestimate wind speeds when they try to calculate how friction and terrain impact the wind as it comes off the ocean. The 925 mb (400-500 meter) predictions remove those possible anomalies, and also give you the maximum potential wind speeds.

How Much Wind to Expect in New England

In the wind forecasts above, I don’t see any plausible scenario where the ECMWF (European) model forecast verifies. You just simply aren’t going to get winds that strong that far inland. Using the other three models, it’s clear that the strongest winds will be contained to the immediate coastal areas.

Areas that are exposed to the north along the South Shore and the Cape and Islands will see the greatest impacts from the wind. You’ll find the strongest winds on the Cape and Islands. Right now, my best guess is that sustained winds will peak in the 40-50 knot range in exposed areas across the Cape and Islands. Hurricane-force gusts are certainly possible, but I don’t expect anything close to the 100 mph gusts that ripped through during the October storm.

Temperature and Wind Chill: How Cold will the Bomb Cyclone Get?

Despite the availability of rich, tropical moisture, the bomb cyclone will have a very well-established cold core by the time it reaches New England. Furthermore, all of New England and the Canadian Maritimes will be on the cold side of the storm as it passes by. As a result, you should expect bitterly cold wind chills during the bomb cyclone. The models are all in agreement.

Expected Temperatures

Expected Wind Chills

When looking at temperatures and wind chills, you really need to look at the coast vs inland. Even in extreme conditions, the ocean still helps regulate temperatures near the coast. That being said, with the exception of Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and possibly parts of the outer Cape, wind chills will struggle to get out of the single digits. If you’re inland, you’ll see sub-zero wind chills for pretty much the duration of the event.

Precipitation Type

With strong northerly winds, sub-zero wind chills, and everywhere on the cold side of the system, it should not be a surprise that this will be a snow event. Parts of the outer Cape and the Islands may briefly see a little ice mix in during the warmest part of the storm early Saturday afternoon. Other than that, it will be all snow.

On the models, we’ll look at the maximum temperature in the vertical column of air during the warmest part of the storm. Blue and purple indicates that the entire column is below freezing. You will see snow in those areas. Areas in green may briefly see some ice or sleet mix in early Saturday afternoon before changing back to all snow. That’s a result of air on the warm side of the storm wrapping around the top of the low as it approaches.

The European and British models do not calculate the maximum vertical temperature, so we’ll only consider the American and Canadian models. As you can see, their two predictions are nearly identical.

Snowfall Totals Will Be Measured in Feet, Not Inches

Whenever you have a storm that has both bitterly cold temperatures and an ample fuel supply of rich, tropical moisture, you’re going to get massive snowfall totals. However, there is a bit of a silver lining. All four models are showing noticeably less snow totals than they were yesterday. Unfortunately, they are still showing around two to three feet maximum snowfall totals for this bomb cyclone.

Because the GFS and GDPS models use the Kuchera Ratio, which is the most accurate, to predict snowfall, we’ll give the heaviest weight to those models. However, for a number of reasons, nailing down exact snowfall totals for a precise location is extremely difficult in this scenario.

1. The low still hasn’t really formed yet, so we don’t have any actual data from it to feed into the models.
2. The snowfall gradients are tight. A small wobble in the storm track can make a big difference in the snow totals. For example, take any of the above predictions and shift the snowfall totals 40-50 miles east or west.
3. A westward shift in the storm’s track may mean some areas – particularly parts of the Cape and Islands – may see more ice, sleet, or mixed precipitation on Saturday afternoon, which would reduce snowfall totals. Again here, a small shift in the storm’s track can make a big difference. In this scenario, inland areas would also see greater snowfall totals.
4. An eastern shift in the storm’s track would shift the precipitation shield east, meaning the heaviest snow could fall offshore.

How Much Snow Should You Expect?

We can give equal weight to all four models to determine where the heaviest snow will fall. Given my experience both with the models and with these types of bomb cyclones, I think the heaviest snow will set up in southeastern New England, along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor. Rhode Island will take a pretty good wallop, but will ultimately be spared the worst of the snowfall. Total accumulations will drop rapidly once you get west of I-95.

For the largest snow totals, I think 20 to 24 inches across Bristol and Plymouth Counties in Massachusetts is your safest bet at this point. That swath will likely spread across western Barnstable County (Cape Cod) and up into the far southern suburbs of Boston as well. 28 to 32 inches in a few isolated spots is certainly not out of the question, either, but I am not expecting widespread totals above 2 feet.

Summary

I know there’s a lot of information in this post, so let’s put it into a nice, clean table to summarize everything.

Conclusion

Like many other bomb cyclones, this is certainly a storm that you’re certainly going to want to take seriously. However, New England has certainly gone through far worse in the past. Make sure you stock up on what you’ll need for a few days, and then hunker down at home and enjoy it. The storm is fast moving, so it’ll be in and out in only about 24 hours. Then it’s just a matter of digging out, cleaning up, and getting back to your normal routine.

If you have any questions about anything related to this storm, please let me know in the comments below or reach out to me directly.

The post Wicked Bomb Cyclone Set to Pound New England with Fierce Winds and Heavy Snow appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

At the storm’s peak, over 500,000 households in southeastern Massachusetts – about 20% of the state’s population – were without power. And the power outages in those households lasted days, not hours. I’ve been through plenty monster storms on the Cape. The only storm that comes anywhere close to the 2021 bomb cyclone in Massachusetts was Hurricane Bob in 1991. After the worst of the nor’easter passed on Tuesday night, the damage was so bad crews were unable to restore power to most customers until Saturday evening.

Furthermore, I’ve witnessed firsthand both EF-5 tornadoes (Moore in 2013) and Category 5 hurricanes (Wilma in 2005) while living in Oklahoma and Florida, respectively. While the magnitude of the damage to personal property from the 2021 Massachusetts Nor’easter pales in comparisons to those storms, it did just as much, if not more damage to the power infrastructure. This fact really piqued my interest, and I really wanted to know why. Today, we’re going to dive into exactly that.

Upper-Level Meteorological Analysis of the Massachusetts Bomb Cyclone

When we look at observations, we use the same strategy as we use for model analysis. We look at the big picture first, so we can better understand what’s going on at the local level.

Two things jump out at me immediately when I look at the upper-level trough over New England. First, the trough is negatively tilted, which means that its axis tilts from northwest to southeast. Negatively tilted troughs like to “dig” to the south, which increases their magnitude. As the trough’s magnitude increases, it pulls in more energy, causing it to strengthen.

Second, the presence of strong winds on the northern side of the storm indicate there is plenty of energy for the storm to tap into. You can see this in the blue hatched area indicated greater than 40 knot winds over New Hampshire and southern Maine. Under normal circumstances, the upper-level low gets its power from the jet stream driving its southern edge. Any additional forcing on the northern edge acts to supercharge the low. If you think of the strengthening low as a car rolling downhill, the additional forcing on the northern edge is the equivalent of stepping on the gas as you go downhill.

The 2021 Massachusetts Bomb Cyclone is Born

Indeed, as the upper-level low “digs” to the south, it rapidly strengthens. Notice how much bigger the blue hatched area (>40 kt winds) has gotten over New England. As the wind on the northern side of the low increases, the low rapidly gains strength. And as the low gains strength, it increases the wind on the northern side of the storm. This positive feedback loop is what meteorologists refer to as bombogenesis. As winds circling the low increase, the pressure at the center of the low decreases. When the pressure drops 24 mb in 24 hours, you have a bomb cyclone. Indeed, observed surface pressure at Nantucket fell 28 mb in 24 hours as the storm strengthened.

Going back to the car rolling downhill analogy, the 2021 Massachusetts bomb cyclone didn’t just hit the gas. It hit the supercharger and the nitrous, too.

Surface Analysis of the Massachusetts Bomb Cyclone

So what gave this bomb cyclone not just its fuel, but its nitrous, too? A very strong warm front passed over the northeast and mid-Atlantic on Monday, 25 October. In its wake, it left unseasonably warm temperatures and high dewpoints from Virginia to Cape Cod. Widespread temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s and dewpoints in the mid 60’s gave this storm more than enough fuel, er nitrous, it needed to undergo bombogenesis.

However, there’s much more to the story at the surface than just a warm front. We’ll need to look at the surface low itself.

A Very Tilted Low Pressure System off the Coast of Massachusetts

A vertical profile of the atmosphere can tell us a lot about whether a low pressure system is expected to strengthen. If the lows are in roughly the same location as you go up, that’s called a “stacked” low, which is the system’s preferred stable equilibrium. In a stacked low, both the upper-level and low-level lows compete for the same fuel supply. At that point, the storm has reached maturity and is unlikely to significantly strengthen.

On the other hand, if the low pressure centers differ in location as you go up, that’s called a tilted low. When a tilted low occurs, it will naturally try to align itself and become stacked. However, until it does, the lows at each different height do not have to compete for the same fuel supply. While the lows try to align themselves vertically, they pull in energy. As a result, the storm strengthens. In the case of the 2021 Massachusetts bomb cyclone, it created ideal conditions for rapid intensification because of the enormous amount of fuel at the surface and the low being so heavily tilted.

Use the sliders below to see the difference in position between the surface low and the upper-level low. You’ll see the surface low centered just off of Cape Cod, while the upper level low is over Delaware. In the second frame, which was about an hour after the storm had finished bombing and had reached its peak strength, notice how much closer the surface and the upper-level lows are to each other.

Cape Cod Bears the Brunt of Bombogenesis

The positioning of the lows played a major role in the bomb cyclone hitting Cape Cod and the South Shore so hard.. Because the upper-level low is much more powerful than the surface low, it pulls the surface low into it as it tries to stack itself. Unfortunately, the surface low happened to be sitting pretty much right over Cape Cod as that happened. As a result, the surface low did not move for more than 12 hours as it rapidly strengthened. It battered the Cape with 70-80 mph wind gusts throughout the daylight hours on Wednesday.

Interestingly, that’s not the full story of why the winds were so strong. For more, we actually need to look between the surface and upper-level lows.

Mid-Level Meteorological Analysis of the Massachusetts Bomb Cyclone

Whenever you’re dealing with a strong low pressure system like the 2021 Massachusetts bomb cyclone, there’s one final ingredient to the strong winds: the low-level jet. The low-level jet is a fast-moving current of air circulating around a low pressure system, usually at 850 mb, or about 1.5 km above the surface. It’s common in low pressure systems for the low-level jet to mix down, which often brings strong wind gusts to the surface.

Indeed, if you look at the low-level jet at the peak of the storm, the strongest winds are over southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. With sustained winds in the low-level jet reaching 80 knots (92 mph), it’s certainly not a surprise that the low-level jet mixing down contributed to wind gusts between 95 and 100 mph across Cape Cod and the Islands.

To determine just how likely winds in the low-level jet will mix down to the surface, let’s look at the wind shear in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. The larger the gap in wind speed between the low-level jet and the surface winds, the more likely the low-level jet is to mix down and create very gusty winds. Indeed, that’s exactly what you see, circled in the pink box on the sounding. There is a gradient of about 40 knots over the lowest 500 meters or so of the atmosphere.

As a result, the low-level jet easily mixed down to the surface. Reports of wind gusts in excess of 80 mph poured in from southeastern Massachusetts throughout the day on Wednesday, 27 October.

Power Outages in Southeastern Massachusetts

Not surprisingly, a bomb cyclone of packing gusts close to 100 mph caused power outages. What surprised a lot of people, however, was just how widespread all of those power outages were. At the peak of the storm, over 500,000 households were without power. Plymouth and Barnstable Counties were close to 100% out of power. These outages include schools, hospitals, fire and police stations, and more. The storm spared nobody.

It took utility crews 5 days to restore power to most customers. At our house in Falmouth, we lost power shortly after 2 AM on Wednesday. It didn’t come back on until 10:15 PM on Friday.

So what cause such extreme widespread power outages? Let’s start with the peak wind gusts. If you line up a map of peak winds with the map of the power outages, they overlap nearly perfectly. And keep in mind that the actual peak wind gusts were likely higher than this map shows. The power was already out at most of these stations before the worst of the nor’easter hit. I can tell you from having been in the storm, the peak gusts in Falmouth were way higher than what this map shows.

When the wind gusts line up so perfectly with the power outages it means one thing. Trees falling on power lines were the primary culprit that causes the power outages.

Why Did So Many Trees Come Down?

It’s only logical to wonder why an October nor’easter knocked down more trees than most hurricanes. It comes down to a combination of three factors that came together absolutely perfectly.

First, a huge amount of rain fell ahead of the storm. The ground was fully saturated when the peak winds hit, making it much easier to uproot trees. When it was all said and done, the Upper Cape and South Shore (Plymouth County) took the brunt of the storm, and were without power for the longest. It’s not a coincidence that the highest rainfall totals were also in that same area.

Second, the leaves were still all on the trees when the bomb cyclone hit. If you think of the trees as a lever, the leaves give the wind much more surface area to blow on. As a result, any gust of wind has much more purchase and leverage than the same gust of wind in the middle of winter. It takes much less wind to knock down trees with leaves on them than without.

Finally, power infrastructure in New England dates back to the 1800’s. Much of that infrastructure is still in place. Unlike many other places, most power in New England relies on power lines instead of running underground. Couple that with shoddy tree trimming and power lines literally running through the middle of trees, and it’s a recipe for disaster.

What a Difference Underground Wires Makes

I was living in Norman, Oklahoma when the 2013 EF-5 tornado tore through the City of Moore packing winds of 210 mph. Many older neighborhoods throughout the Oklahoma City Metro are full of large trees, much like New England. At its closest point, the Moore Tornado passed less than 4 miles from my house.

In its aftermath, the power was out for less than 2 hours, not just in Norman, but also within Moore itself. So what’s the big difference compared to New England? Most power lines in central Oklahoma are underground, and those that aren’t are built to withstand up to an EF-3 tornado.

How Can We Prevent This Level of Damage in the Future?

As the climate warms, these bomb cyclones will become more common. The best solution is to bury the power lines. It’s impossible for falling trees to take out power lines that are underground. Unfortunately, the cost of burying power lines is extraordinary. As a result, the power companies, the town, and even the state routinely balk at it.

The next best solution is to pass laws that require trees to be trimmed a certain amount back from power lines. The goal here is not to prevent trees from falling on power lines, but to minimize the risk of it. California is starting to do this after power lines have started so many fires in the Golden State. The New England states should start giving it some serious thought, too, because this will happen again.

Conclusion

The 2021 bomb cyclone was basically a 100-mile wide EF-1 tornado that lasted for 12 hours in southeastern Massachusetts. As I drove around town in the aftermath of the storm, I found it very interesting that the damage much more closely resembled tornado damage than hurricane damage. Either way, it was one hell of a storm that won’t be forgotten any time soon.

I’ve also heard plenty of comparisons of the 2021 bomb cyclone to the Perfect Storm in 1991. Both storms occurred within a few days of Halloween, packing winds of 75-80 mph and pressures as low as 980 mb. However, that’s about where the similarities end in my opinion.

The Perfect Storm started as a hurricane and got absorbed into the jet stream, much like Hurricane Sandy did in 2012. The 2021 bomb cyclone never had any tropical characteristics. Instead, it was a cold-core mid-latitude upper-level low like every other nor’easter that has ever hit New England. Only this time, everything came together just perfectly for it to morph into a monster.

Top Photo: Downed Trees Hang From Power Lines Following the Bomb Cyclone
Falmouth, Massachusetts – October, 2021

The post A Meteorological Analysis of Massachusetts’ Stunning Bomb Cyclone Damage appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

While fall colors used to be local New England tradition, they now attract visitors from all over the world. As you can expect, the more popular areas often attract large crowds. These crowds take a lot of the magic of New England fall colors out of the air. Thankfully, there are plenty of places to see amazing fall colors in places that are both off-the-beaten-path and places where you wouldn’t normally think of fall foliage. Here are six of my favorite places in New England to escape the crowds and see some of the best fall foliage the region has to offer.

1. Merritt Parkway, Connecticut

Peak Fall Colors: Late October

The Merritt Parkway runs parallel to Interstate 95 across the western third of Connecticut. With its western terminus sitting just 25 miles from downtown Manhattan, it’s an easy day trip from both New York City and Hartford. The parkway is incredibly scenic for being in such a densely populated area. As a result, it’s one of the most underrated spots in southern New England to see fall colors.

When you drive the Merritt Parkway, you’ll experience the Scenic Gateway to New England. Trailers and commercial vehicles are banned, so you’ll only be sharing the road with passenger cars. With a very old-time and classic New England feel, the elaborate architecture of the Merritt Parkway’s overpasses alone is worth the drive. The trees are close to the road and often overhang the road like a tunnel. During peak fall colors, it’s absolutely spectacular.

Unfortunately, being so close to New York City also comes with its disadvantages. Traffic can be horrendous if you hit the Merritt Parkway at the wrong time of day (read: rush hour). Furthermore, many drivers consider speed limits and yield signs to be just a suggestion, which can make for white knuckle driving during rush hour. The parkway has very narrow lanes and no shoulders. As a result, accidents are fairly common, and one minor fender bender can shut down the entire parkway.

Under no circumstance should you use those disadvantages as an excuse to not drive the Merritt Parkway. Just try to avoid it at rush hour. If you run into traffic, don’t hesitate to get off and drive north (away from I-95) on the surface streets. You don’t have to go far to get out of the congestion, away from civilization, and out into nature where you’ll have the breathtaking New England fall colors all to yourself.

2. Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Peak Fall Colors: Late October/Early November

OK, I’m a bit biased here because I grew up on Cape Cod and my family still lives there. But it doesn’t diminish that the Cape is absolutely spectacular in the fall. In fact, September and October are probably my two favorite months to be on Cape Cod. The summer tourists have long since gone home, so crowds are virtually non-existent. However, do note that things may be a bit busier than normal, as people from both Boston and New York have been using their Cape homes to escape the city during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As popular as Cape Cod is during the summer, most people don’t consider it for viewing fall colors. Not that I’m complaining, I like it when it’s quiet. But most people instead look to northern New England and the western half of Massachusetts for the best fall foliage viewing. Cape Cod’s world-famous beaches combined with peak fall colors provide you with an intense sensory overload of colors that cover nearly the entire color wheel.

So where would I go to see fall colors on Cape Cod? The most scenic drive hands down in Route 6A. Take the first exit after you go over the Sagamore Bridge and follow Route 6A down Cape to its eastern terminus in Orleans. You’ll pass beaches, nature preserves, and quaint towns. From Orleans, you have a few options. You can continue further on US-6 East up to Provincetown and take in the fall colors along the Cape Cod National Seashore. Or, if you’re ready to head home, just get on the Mid-Cape Highway (US-6) going west. It’s about a 40 minute drive back to the Sagamore Bridge. There are plenty more options to see fall colors on Cape Cod, but if you only had one day, I’d drive Route 6A.

Finally, if you’re considering a trip to Cape Cod to take in the fall colors, pay at least some attention to the weather during the two or three weeks before you arrive. Late season hurricanes and early season nor’easters occasionally impact Cape Cod in mid-to-late October. These storms can (and more often than not do) blow all the leaves off the trees before fall colors peak. The last thing you want is to make the trip only to find a recent storm ruined peak fall colors for you. Thankfully, these October storms are the exception instead of the rule on Cape Cod.

3. Mount Washington, New Hampshire

Peak Fall Colors: Late September to Mid-October

One of the great things about being somewhere you have elevation is that it extends the duration of the peak fall colors. That peak starts at the top of the mountain and progressively works its way down to the bottom. Instead of just having a one or two week window of peak fall colors, that window can be as long as 4 to 6 weeks, depending on the height of the mountain. That’s part of what makes fall colors in places like Colorado so spectacular.

You can take full advantage of this strategy right in New England. At 6,288 feet (1,917 m) above sea level, the summit of Mt. Washington is both the highest point in the northeast and the most prominent feature east of the Mississippi River. By varying your elevation, the window of peak fall colors on Mt. Washington often lasts at least three to four weeks, if not more.

Furthermore, the summit of Mt. Washington has the added advantage that it’s above the tree line. Indeed, on a clear day, you can see Canada, Maine, Vermont, and Massachusetts from the summit. With an unobstructed view from the summit, being able to see the blanket of brilliant New England fall colors for miles and miles is nothing short of breathtaking. Just be aware that the road up the mountain is very steep, narrow, and winding with sheer dropoffs and no guardrails. If that type of driving is not for you, take the train to the top or hire one of the tour companies to drive you up.

“The Worst Weather in the World”

If you decide to venture all the way to the summit, make sure you bring warm clothing. There’s a reason the observatory uses the slogan “the worst weather in the world.” The summit of Mt. Washington is famous for having some of the worst weather in the world. The summit can be 30 to 50 degrees (Fahrenheit) colder than the base of the mountain. Freezing temperatures and snow can occur year round.

In addition to its frigid temperatures, the summit is notorious for its relentless winds because it’s high enough to pierce the jet stream. Tropical storm force winds are a routine occurrence. On 12 April, 1934, anemometers at the summit of Mt. Washington recorded a wind gust of 231 mph (372 km/h). To this day, that record still stands as the strongest wind gust ever recorded with an anemometer in the Northern Hemisphere. On a side note, those 300-plus mph wind gusts recorded in Oklahoma tornadoes in 1999 and 2013 were measured with doppler radar, not with anemometers. That’s why Mt. Washington’s record still stands today.

Tip: After visiting Mt. Washington, drive the nearby Kancamagus Highway (NH-112) through the breathtaking White Mountain National Forest. You’ll see covered bridges, beautiful mountain landscapes, and some of the best fall colors in New Hampshire.

4. Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway and the Height of Land Overlook, Maine

Peak Fall Colors: Early to Mid-October

Tucked away in the corner of Maine near the triple point where Maine, New Hampshire, and Québec come together, the Height of Land Overlook is a true hidden gem. The blanket of brilliant warm fall colors on the mountains rising up from the sparkling blue waters of three large lakes is simply heavenly. The entire scenic byway is far enough off the beaten path that there are very few people up there even at the height of fall colors. It’s actually closer to Sherbrooke, Québec than any significant population center in either Maine or New Hampshire.

In addition to the Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway, the area is full of beautiful drives that are just spectacular when fall colors are at their peak. From the town of Rangeley, head west on Highway 16 to Errol, NH. Alternatively, head north on Highway 27 to the Canadian border. For even more adventure, cross the border into Québec and complete the loop.

5. The Northeast Kingdom, Vermont

Peak Fall Colors: Late September to Mid-October

Vermont is the most popular destination in New England to see fall colors. Not surprisingly, getting away from crowds can be a bit of a challenge. Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom is exactly where you would expect it to be: tucked away in the northeast corner of the state in the heart of the breathtaking Green Mountains. You’ll find stunning vistas and beautiful landscapes nearly everywhere you look. Covering over 2,000 square miles, the Northeast Kingdom is one of the most sparsely populated areas in Vermont.

Like the Height of Land Overlook, the Northeast Kingdom is far enough off the beaten path that few people venture up there. Instead, most leaf peepers stay further west, near Montpelier and Burlington. The many ski resorts near the city provide easy access to pretty spectacular fall colors. You shouldn’t have too many issues with crowds in the Northeast Kingdom. However, if you do, don’t be afraid to hop across the border into New York, New Hampshire, or Québec. You’ll often find much smaller crowds there.

6. QC-247 and Autoroute 10: The Gateway to Fall Colors in Québec

Peak Fall Colors: Late September to Early October

Okay, this is technically not New England, but hear me out. With Canada having reopened its border to fully vaccinated travelers, don’t rule out fall colors north of the border. The landscapes can be even more scenic than New England, and crowds are few and far between. Fall foliage viewing opportunities in Québec alone cover more land area than New England several times over. And southern Québec is full of something you won’t find too many of in New England: National Parks.

Heading east out of Montréal, you’ll find four National Parks within 25 miles (40 km) of the US border. They’re all within a three hour drive from downtown Montréal. Head north from Montréal an you’ll find even more than the parks listed below.

If the National Parks leave you craving even more fall colors, head to any of the lakes that cover the southern Québec landscape. You’ll find the most accessible lakes near Sherbrooke and Magog. However, you shouldn’t stop there. Just 60 miles (100 km) northeast of Sherbrooke, you’ll find Lac St. François, which sits inside of Parc National du Frontenac, as well as Lac Mégantic. While much of the town of Lac Mégantic burned down following the infamous rail disaster in 2013, scenery around the lake that goes by the same name is simply breathtaking.

Don’t Be Intimidated By the Language Barrier

One of the primary reasons there are so fewer crowds viewing fall colors in Québec is due to many Americans being hesitant to cross the border because of the language barrier. If you’re near a major population center, such as Montréal or Sherbrooke, or a popular tourist destination, such as the national parks, you will not have any major issues speaking English only. However, once you get away from the cities and the tourist spots, it’s all French. You will stumble across people that speak English, but don’t count on it.

Like the United States, Canada’s federal government runs all of its National Parks. Because English and French are both official languages in Canada, everything inside the National Parks is bilingual. However, be aware that French is the only official language in Québec, so outside of the National Parks, road signs (and most everything else) are in French only.

COVID-19 Restrictions Entering Canada

Please obey all rules, regulations, and restrictions that Canada has put in place due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While we went over the process when Canada first reopened its border back in August, please visit the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) website for the most up-to-date requirements you need to enter Canada. While there are plenty of border crossings between New England and Québec, I make no guarantee that the smaller border crossings are open during the COVID-19 pandemic. Please consult with either the CBSA or with US Customs to get their latest hours of operation.

Conclusion

Peak fall colors is a truly magical time of year in New England. The soft warm colors of the changing leaves against a brilliant blue sky only makes that crisp and clean fall air taste even better. Even through the leaf peeper crowds have grown in recent years, there are still plenty of places to get away from the masses, and enjoy the peace and serenity of having the spectacular New England fall colors to yourself.

Finally, while this post has focused on New England, don’t forget about New York. While upstate offers the best viewing opportunities, the entire State of New York has pretty amazing fall colors, too. Sitting just across the river from Vermont with plenty of wilderness to offer, New York is an easy escape from the crowds that can gather in parts of New England. Where is your favorite spot to see fall colors?

Top Photo: Peak Fall Colors on the Talimena Scenic Byway
Talihina, Oklahoma – November, 2013

The post 6 Lesser Known New England Spots to See Amazing Fall Colors appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

As expected, the upper-level steering currents have pushed Henri back to the east. It looks like the GFS (American) model was right all along. Its consistency and history of being right with Henri is why have been saying over the past three days that Henri will track east of the center of the National Hurricane Center‘s cones.

I still expect Henri to make a left hand turn while it comes ashore, as an upper-level low tries to sling shot the hurricane into Ontario. However, as we discussed yesterday, it will quickly run into a road block from a strong high pressure over Québec, briefly stalling out before being ejected across Northern New England and up into the Canadian Maritimes.

Current Watches and Warnings

The watches and warnings for Henri remain unchanged since yesterday. Hurricane Warnings remain in effect from

• The Massachusetts/Rhode Island State Line to New Haven, CT
• Block Island
• Port Jefferson, NY to the west end of Fire Island, NY

Likewise, Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect from

• Chatham, MA to the Massachusetts/Rhode Island State Line
• Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket
• New Haven, CT to Port Jefferson, NY, including all of New York City
• The west end of Fire Island, NY to Point Pleasant, NJ

Storm Threats and the Timing of Each

With Henri’s imminent landfall in southern New England, we are going to shift a bit from discussing exactly where the eye will come ashore to the timing of the threats Henri will bring to the region.

Wind

Because Henri is expected to weaken so rapidly as it starts interacting with the land in southern New England, most places along the south coast will likely see the strongest winds before the storm makes landfall. Even if you remove the effect of the land, Henri is over cool waters, and will be weakening as it approaches the coast.

This timing of the strongest winds is especially true for the eastern half of the storm, primarily from Narragansett Bay to Cape Cod and the Islands. Because Henri has been pushed back tot he east, those locations will likely see stronger winds than were predicted just yesterday. Wind gusts in excess of 50 knots are all but certain, except possibly for the outer portions of Cape Cod. The potential is there to see gusts to 70 knots, but it’s far from a guarantee.

The one exception is in the area immediately around the location that the eye of Henri makes landfall. The eye is expected to pass near Block Island and the far eastern tip of Long Island before coming ashore near the Connecticut/Rhode Island state line.

Storm Surge

Because winds are out of the south (onshore) in the eastern half of the storm, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts will bear the brunt of the storm surge. West of Henri’s eye, winds will be out of the north (offshore), with the exception of the north coast of Long Island. However, Long Island Sound is so small compared to the open Atlantic Ocean, storm surge effects on the north shore of Long Island will be less than points further east.

To determine which locations will see the greatest impact from the storm surge, you simply need to look at where the window for the strongest winds overlaps with the timing of high tide. You’ll find the lowest impacts where the strongest winds overlap with low tide, which occurs about 6 hours before and after each high tide. Also, don’t forget that locations closer to the eye tend to see greater impacts than locations on the edge of Henri.

What Does This Table Mean?

Thankfully, there is not one location that really jumps out at me as being much higher risk for storm surge. High tide in most spots in both Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay will fall at the beginning of that window of maximum winds, which will help limit the impact of the storm surge. Hyannis is far enough out in the outer part of Henri’s circulation that lower wind speeds will help offset the fact that high tide falls at the end of window of maximum winds. Finally, the Connecticut locations will see most likely see offshore winds. New London may see a brief period of onshore winds this morning, but they will quickly shift as Henri approaches. I would expect to see 3 to 5 foot storm surge in all of the above locations.

Inland Flooding

Based on model guidance and early radar returns, the majority of the rain is in the western Half of Henri. As a result, the highest risk for inland flooding will be in Connecticut, western Massachusetts, southeastern New York, and northern New Jersey. Depending on where Henri stalls out to make its turn to the east, southern Vermont could be at a higher risk for flooding as well. The rest of New England is by no means out of the woods, but is at much lower risk given the sharp gradient in forecast rainfall totals. Remember, if you see flooding, Turn Around, Don’t Drown!

Power Outages

Widespread power outages should be expected across most of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Long Island. Downed trees are the #1 cause of power outages in storms like this. New England has had a lot of rain in recent weeks. As a result, the soil is quite saturated, making it easier for Henri to uproot trees. If you see downed power lines, don’t go anywhere near them! Back away and call the electric company.

Be prepared to be without power for a while if you do lose it. We’re talking days here, not hours. But thankfully, barring any unforeseen catastrophes, it shouldn’t be weeks, either, despite some of the reports you may have heard on the news. Further north, it would not surprise me at all to see isolated power outages across parts of Vermont, New Hampshire, and southern Maine.

Conclusion

Hurricane Henri has arrived in southern New England. By now, you should be hunkered down and sheltering in place until the storm passes. Henri will likely be the most significant tropical cyclone to impact southern New England since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

Once Henri makes landfall, it will rapidly weaken. It is expected to be a tropical depression by 2 AM EDT Monday, and will be just a remnant low by midday. However, that should not be taken lightly. Just because the wind diminishes, it does not mean the threat for flooding has dissipated, too. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Be smart, stay safe, and enjoy the ride.

The post Hurricane Henri in New England: Sunday Morning Outlook appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Big Picture Overview

The primary steering currents that are driving Henri have strengthened since yesterday’s discussion. The low has set up over West Virginia and continues to dig to the south and east. Similarly, the high pressure has firmly established itself over Québec.

Because air moves from areas of high pressure to areas of low, the low pressure system over West Virginia will try to suck Henri into it. You can see the effect in the upper-level steering currents, which the green arrows mark in the plot above. As a result, that low has been responsible for the drastic westward shift in Henri’s forecast track over the past 48 hours or so.

Unfortunately, it’s not as simple as Henri getting sucked into the upper-level steering currents and getting flung up into Ontario. Remember that big ridge of high pressure over Québec? That acts like a roadblock, preventing Henri from moving north and northwest once it makes landfall in southern New England. Furthermore, as the low pressure expands to the south and east as it strengthens, it will actually push Henri back to the east as it tries to pull the hurricane into it.

So what’s the end result? As Henri gets pulled into the low, it will screech to a halt once it hits the blocking effect from the high. As the low pressure system over West Virginia move east, it will eventually grab hold of Henri and eject it out over eastern Massachusetts and up into the Gulf of Maine. If you’ve looked at the 5 AM EDT outlook from the Hurricane Center this morning, that’s why there’s such a big kink in the track. We’ll come back to this shortly.

Current Watches and Warnings for Henri in New England

As of 11 AM EDT, Hurricane Warnings are now in effect from

• The Massachusetts/Rhode Island State Line to New Haven, CT
• Block Island
• Port Jefferson, NY to the west end of Fire Island, NY

Likewise, Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect from

• Chatham, MA to the Massachusetts/Rhode Island State Line
• Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket
• New Haven, CT to Port Jefferson, NY, including all of New York City
• The west end of Fire Island, NY to Point Pleasant, NJ

Storm Surge Warnings are also in effect for the entire south coast of New England and Long Island as Henri approaches. While the surge will not be catastrophic, it will likely flood low-lying coastal areas with 3 to 5 foot storm surge. If you live in an area that often floods, I would expect it to flood as Henri comes ashore. Please be aware there will likely be very dangerous rip currents in the warning area as well.

Model Overview

Models are finally converging on a solution after a lot of uncertainty over the past 48 hours. Remember, don’t focus on one particular outcome. Instead, you want to look for patterns. Where do they agree? Where do they disagree? If they disagree, why do they disagree? Are there any anomalous runs that should be immediately discounted? Models that have been consistently accurate that are in agreement are the ones you want to focus on.

The GFS (American) Model

The GFS has been the most stable, consistent, and accurate model over Henri’s lifecycle, so we will once again use it for the basis of our forecast. This morning’s runs remain consistent with both Friday’s and Thursday’s runs. Neither Henri’s track nor strength have changed much in the GFS runs over the past two to three days.

The ECMWF (European) Model

Over the past two or three days, the ECMWF’s strength forecast has been very much an outlier. This morning, it is finally coming into agreement with the other models. It still shows weaker wind speeds at landfall than any of the other models. However, because it is now in close agreement with the other models, we can give it much more weight when we make our official forecast.

The UKMET (United Kingdom) Model

In yesterday’s model run, the track of the UKMET was quite anomalous, tracking much further west than any of the other models. As expected, that too, has largely come back into agreement with the rest of the models this morning.

It’s also worth noting that the UKMET has Henri making landfall sooner and with slightly stronger winds than any of the other models. That’s a result of the model having Henri moving faster. In the UKMET scenario, Henri spends less time over the cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey, and thus has less time to weaken. We will need to take that into account when we make our official forecast.

The GDPS (Canadian) Model

The GDPS has been in lockstep with the GFS for days. This morning, it remains that way, bringing Henri ashore at the Connecticut/Rhode Island state line. Much like the GFS, the GDPS has been very consistent, stable, and accurate over the past few days. As a result, we can use it to make forecasts with a high degree of confidence.

Despite our confidence in the model, this individual snapshot is actually a bit misleading with regards to wind speed. You may look at this map and think, oh boy, that’s in line with the weaker winds of the ECMWF. And that’s true…to a degree. All models have Henri weakening rapidly once it makes landfall on the south coast of New England. If you look at the GDPS snapshot for six hours earlier (Sunday at 8 AM EDT), winds are much stronger.

As a result, much of southern New England and Long Island will likely experience stronger winds than the 2 PM EDT snapshot indicates as the eye of Henri approaches landfall. Additionally, a small uptick in Henri’s forward speed means that it could come ashore with much stronger winds.

Model Summary for Henri in Southern New England

This morning’s model runs are in close agreement with each other. After all of the uncertainty of the past few days, it’s about as good of an agreement as we can ask for. In our official forecast, we’ll be able to give each model close to equal weight and make our forecast with a high degree of confidence.

Our Official Forecast for the Impact of Henri in New England

With the models now aligning with each other, our forecast should be pretty easy to make. However, there is one parameter that I think we can discount. Based on over a decade of experience with working with mathematical models, my meteorological intuition is telling me that there is basically no way that Henri will have 90 mph winds at landfall like the UKMET says. I don’t want to discount its prediction fully, but we’ll give much less weight to it.

Additionally, because Henri is expected to weaken so rapidly once it makes landfall, the greatest coastal wind impacts will likely be felt prior to landfall. This is particularly true for areas in the eastern half of the storm…Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, I’m looking at you here. Flooding will remain a threat until either Henri weakens sufficiently or it exits the area.

Post-Landfall

Henri will continue to be pulled into the upper-level low that currently sits over West Virginia as it approaches landfall. Interestingly, the moment that the sling-shot effect (when a mid-latitude low grabs hold of a hurricane and flings it north) occurs will be at the same time as Henri runs into the road block from the strong high over Québec.

As a result, you’ll see Henri make a sharp left (westward) turn right after landfall, which is from the low trying to fling Henri up into Ontario. It will almost immediately run into the roadblock from the high over Québec and temporarily stall out over northern Connecticut and/or western Massachusetts. As the upper-level low moves east, it will push Henri east with it, eventually sling-shotting it across southern New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts and up into the Canadian Maritimes.

The National Hurricane Center Forecast

Our forecast remains largely in agreement with the National Hurricane Center. However, from model analysis and my meteorological intuition, I believe that Henri will track slightly east of the center of the official Hurricane Center cone. While I don’t think landfall in western Rhode Island is the most likely outcome at this time, it’s certainly possible. It’s not a major difference, but it certainly could make for an interesting ride on Block Island much of the Rhode Island coast if it verifies.

Conclusion

The picture is certainly coming into focus as Henri approaches Southern New England. It remains a flip of a coin whether Henri will be a tropical storm or a hurricane when it makes landfall, but you will likely see hurricane-force wind gusts across much of southern New England. If you’re in the path of Henri, please stay safe and enjoy the ride. Please let me know if you have any questions, and stay tuned for tomorrow morning’s update.

The post Hurricane Henri in New England: Saturday Morning Outlook appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Big Picture Overview

Before we jump into models, let’s look at the big picture. Here’s what the upper-level winds across the continental US look like. Henri is currently sitting in the bight between the Bahamas and Cape Hatteras.

Looking at the map, there are a couple things that will impact Henri as it churns towards New England.

1. A large ridge of high pressure sits over Ontario and Québec
2. A mini-trough (it’s a little big to call it a shortwave) currently centered over Pittsburgh is passing through the Ohio Valley

So how will they impact Henri? Quite a bit. The high pressure system will slow Henri down as it approaches New England. The mini-trough, which is a weak area of low pressure, will pull Henri towards it. That trough is the culprit behind why the track has so drastically shifted west over the past 24 hours.

Additionally, Henri has been in a sheared environment for the past 24-36 hours. That shear has dissipated, creating very favorable conditions for Henri to strengthen as it moves north.

Current Watches and Warnings for Henri in New England

As expected, the National Hurricane Center issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches for southern New England and parts of New York this morning with its 5 AM EDT advisory for Henri.

Hurricane watches extend from Plymouth, MA to New Haven, CT, and include all of Cape Cod and the Islands. If you’re on Long Island, you’re under a hurricane watch if you’re east of a line from Port Jefferson to the west end of Fire Island. Tropical Storm Watches cover the rest of Long Island Sound and the south coast of Long Island. As of right now, New York City is not under any watches, but that will likely change over the next 12 to 24 hours. The same goes for Boston.

What Do The Models Predict for Henri’s Impact in New England

A good forecaster knows how to look at the models and determine which ones to give the most weight to when they make their forecast. I have my favorite collection of models I turn to when forecasting hurricanes. I want to emphasize when you look at the models, don’t focus on one particular outcome. Instead, you want to look for patterns. Where do they agree? Where do they disagree? If they disagree, why do they disagree? Are there any anomalous runs that should be immediately discounted? Models that have been consistently accurate that are in agreement are the ones you want to focus on.

The GFS (American) Model

The GFS has been the most consistently accurate model for both Hurricane Henri as well as Hurricane Grace, which is currently heading towards a second landfall on Mexico’s Gulf Coast after passing over the Yucatán. As a result, we’ll use it as the basis of our forecast to which we can compare the other models. This morning’s runs remain consistent with yesterday’s. The GFS has Henri following a very similar path to Hurricane Bob into southern New England. It makes landfall in Narragansett Bay with wind speeds of 74 knots (85 mph).

The ECMWF (European) Model

The ECMWF has been a bit of an outlier with Henri’s strength, but it has been in lockstep with the GFS for where Henri will track. While you can’t completely discount its wind speed forecast, you will notice that it is noticeably weaker than the other models. However, wind speeds in the ECMWF forecast for Henri have trended up over the past 24 hours, meaning that it will likely align with the GFS as Henri approaches New England.

The UKMET (United Kingdom) Model

While the ECMWF was an outlier for Henri’s strength, the UKMET has done the exact opposite. Its strength forecasts are in strong agreement with the GFS, but its forecast track for Henri has trended much further west than the other models. Interestingly, the UKMET is also showing signs of coming into agreement with the GFS. In its runs just yesterday, the UKMET showed landfall possibly as far west as New Jersey. This morning’s runs have pulled it much further back to the east and closer to both the GFS and the ECMWF tracks.

The GDPS (Canadian) Model

The GDPS has largely been in agreement with the GFS on both strength and track over the past 48 hours. From a forecasting standpoint, that’s a very good thing. It means we can give less weight to the ECMWF’s outlying strength and the UKMET’s outlying track. It also means that we should expect those outliers to align with the rest of the models that are in agreement within the next 36 hours or so.

Model Summary

Before we put our official forecast together, let’s stop and think about which models should get the most weight. Because the GFS (American) and GDPS (Canadian) are in close agreement, we’ll give the most weight to those. Additionally, the ECMWF’s track and the UKMET’s strength are also in close agreement with the other two models, so we can give them plenty of weight as well. As for the outliers, I don’t want to completely discount them because they are trending back towards the models that are all in agreement. If anything, the fact that they’re trending back only reinforces our confidence in the other models.

Our Official Forecast for the Impact of Henri in New England

Based on the models we looked at, along with a little intuition and gut feelings, we can make our own official forecast. Hurricane Henri making landfall is southern New England is all but guaranteed. The big questions are where will it hit, and how strong will it be. Here are our best guesses.

How Does It Compare to the National Hurricane Center’s Advisory?

If we did our forecasting correctly, our forecast should be pretty similar to the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast. Indeed, the center of the National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty brings Henri ashore near the Connecticut/Rhode Island State line as a strong tropical storm.

Conclusion

Henri is a potent tropical cyclone that folks in New England should take seriously. If it makes landfall as a hurricane, it will be the first hurricane to hit New England since Hurricane Bob in 1991. Whether it can actually do that remains a flip of a coin. I’ll be posting daily updates about Henri at least until it makes landfall. Please don’t hesitate to reach out if you have any questions. Be smart and stay safe.

The post Hurricane Henri in New England: Friday Morning Outlook appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

• Hotels
• Public Restaurants
• Restaurants
• Stores

During my last few days in Norman, the strangest feeling set in. I have driven this route a gazillion and a half times over the past decade. Yet I felt like I was just standing at the edge of the map about to drive off into the unknown. It’s just one of those weird things pandemic life does to you.

Arkansas: Did Someone Say Air Conditioning?

As I crossed the border from Oklahoma into Arkansas, a weird sense of relief washed over me. With a couple brief exceptions, I will be in states with mask mandates for the rest of the trip. In addition, I could finally put over 2,000 kilometers (1,200 mi) of Interstate 40 behind me. It felt so good to be out on the back roads and away from the semi trucks on the Interstate.

Even Mother Nature decided to throw us a bone. It felt quite deserving after the rather icy greeting she offered in New Mexico, which sent wind chills plunging to -35°F (-37°C). On the contrary, she provided blue skies and warm sunshine for the drive across northeastern Arkansas on US-67.

It didn’t take long before I actually started to feel hot. What a welcome change this was from those icy polar winds ripping down the Oklahoma prairie. Afternoon temperatures climbed to nearly 80°F (27°C). It instantly transported me back to all of those wonderful road trip memories of summers past. It was the last thing I expected on this trip, but I had to turn on the air conditioning to cool down. I was still very much dressed for winter.

Better enjoy it while it lasts, as an old foe has another rude surprise waiting in the wings.

A Meteorological Miscalculation at a Kentucky Campground

I crossed the state line from Tennessee into Kentucky right at sunset. It was still another 7 or so hour drive to reach my overnight stopover at a campground in eastern Kentucky. The drive was largely uneventful. I ran into a few light rain showers passing through Lexington. It was otherwise dry, with temperatures hovering around 60°F (16°C).

Even Without the Weather Factor, This was not a Normal Camping Trip

For those of you who are unfamiliar with some of my photography adventures, I have camped out in the truck plenty of times before. This was far from my first rodeo. However, there were a few distinct differences.

• I normally sleep in the truck bed because you can fit an air mattress or camping pad and a sleeping bag back there very comfortably. There was so much stuff in the back this trip that I was forced to sleep in the cab.
• I’m used camping in the dry, arid climates out west in the summertime. That doesn’t exactly describe eastern Kentucky in February.

Once again, I managed to fall victim to a musing misfortune of a meteorological miscalculation. Sigh.

The Weather Seemed Nice Enough

After a careful analysis of the weather models, I had concluded that the Polar Vortex had cleared out of the area. Nighttime temperatures would be plenty warm for comfortable camping, dipping only into the 50s F (10s C). In fact, in the summertime, I had camped in much colder temperatures in some of the higher elevations out west. I made reservations at the campground prior to leaving Oklahoma.

One exit west of the campground, I pulled off the freeway for fuel shortly before 1 AM. I couldn’t believe how perfect the weather was for camping. The low-level clouds were starting to break up, and you could feel the humidity dropping. The temperature sat at 58°F (14°C). You didn’t even have to put a jacket on to venture outside and pump the gas. With my weather analysis seemingly confirmed, I was really looking forward to stretching my legs and having a cowboy shower and a change of clothes at the campsite.

The Fatal Flaw in a Seemingly Sound Strategy

The second I exited the freeway to drive the couple of miles to the campground, I realized I had made a critical error in my weather analysis. While I nailed my forecast, I had failed to realize or account for the fact that this campground was about 3,000 feet straight up the side of a mountain. The Polar Vortex had cleared out of the surface layer, but it still raged up above.

Once Again, the Polar Vortex Bites Hard

I immediately found myself on a very narrow and winding road through a heavily wooded forest. Moisture hung in the air, dripping off trees and hitting my windshield like raindrops. Before even reaching a hill, the temperature had dropped to 45°F (7°C).

Things truly turned bizarre once I started up the mountain. Keep in mind, it’s after one o’clock in the morning, and I had never been here before. After starting the ascent, the road became even more narrow, winding, and heavily wooded. It didn’t take long to get back in the snowpack, either. You kept your fingers crossed that you wouldn’t meet another car coming the other direction. Just passing each other would be sketchy. And that’s before taking into account the steep drop-offs on my side of the road or the high risk of black ice further up the mountain.

About a third of the way up the mountain, weird plumes of fog began to slowly waft across the road. By now, the temperature had dropped to 34°F (1°C). All of a sudden, I rounded a very sharp corner and had to put my foot to the floor slamming on the brakes.

Back in the Twilight Zone

At this point, I felt like I was back in the twilight zone. I couldn’t believe my eyes. There were trees and limbs down all over the road. They had obviously come down very recently. Thankfully, after the initial shock wore off, the road was still passable. There was ample room to tiptoe your way through the hazard. You couldn’t help but keep thinking in the back of your mind, “gee, I hope there aren’t any more trees that come down in the middle of the night and, you know, trap me in here.” I had a saw with me, but it gave me little comfort thinking about the potential marathon cutting through that many trees.

After what felt like an eternity (it was at most 15 minutes), I reached the campsite. My campsite of choice was accessible from the pavement, but out of the way enough that I wouldn’t be disturbed should anyone drive through in the middle of the night. I pulled off the pavement and onto the snowpack to park for the night. Mother Nature threw her last curveball.

A Hidden River Under the Snow

Almost instantly, the truck fell through the snowpack’s top crust and buried itself in about 6 inches of slush and soft mud. Even with four wheel drive, it struggled mightily to move just a few feet. I inched it forward as far as I could and parked it. Hopefully, with temperatures now down to 29°F (-2°C), my tracks would freeze up enough to make getting out a little easier. Yes, it was a bit of a gamble, but it was one I was more than willing to take. Then it began to lightly rain. So much for stretching my legs and having a cowboy shower. Hard to believe that less than 12 hours ago, it was 80 degrees and I had the air conditioning on.

Unfortunately, I couldn’t go to sleep just yet. I still had to move some gear from the back seat to the truck bed so I could recline the seat. To add insult to injury, my heavy boots were in the truck bed, leaving me with just lightweight sneakers to take on the mud pit. I gingerly stepped out onto the crust of the snowpack, hoping that my feet wouldn’t go through it like my tires had.

Much to my amazement, the snowpack held, but I know that one misstep and I’d be ankle deep in mud. The snowpack still needed to be tested carrying the extra weight of the gear I had to move. I came very close to breaking through a few times stepping over the area where the tires had already gone through, but I got the gear moved, and could finally recline the seat and doze off.

While I Never Felt in any Sort of Danger, the Scenery was Straight Out of the Beginning of Every Horror Movie

I drifted in and out of sleep until I fully awoke just after 3 AM to pale moonlight shining through the window. I rolled over and looked out. The rain had stopped, and skies had begun to clear. A bright full moon shone through the silhouetted bare trees swaying back and forth in the icy wind. There was not a sound to be heard, just the hum of the wind blowing through the trees. A heavy chill had settled into the truck, as the wintry mountain air had slowly sucked the heat out of the cab. I started the truck and turned the heater on.

As I waited for the cab to warm back up, I watched the trees sway back and forth in the pale moonlight. Even though the campground was well-known and as safe as safe could be, it was completely and utterly deserted. I was the only one there. It was hard to shake that one nagging thought that kept prodding the back of your mind: I’m pretty sure this is how all horror movies start.

After about 10 or 15 minutes, the truck had warmed back up. I shut off the engine and tried to go back to sleep. However, you can’t unthink the thoughts about horror movies. You try to block them out as best you can, but the only sleep you can drift off into is a restless one. I managed to doze until about 4:15 AM. At that point I knew that the odds of getting back to sleep were pretty slim.

Backtracking Out of the Campground

Now comes the hard part: getting out. As I got out to move everything back into driving mode, I was relieved to see that the freezing temperatures had worked their magic and hardened up the snowpack. While it make moving the gear around much easier, backing the truck out of the campsite was a much different story.

Even with four-wheel drive, you need to be very gentle on the throttle to get a vehicle moving and keep it in control on snow and ice. The last thing you want to do is spin the tires and wind up in the ditch. I put the truck in reverse and very slowly started to depress the accelerator. The truck didn’t budge. The wheels had partially frozen in place.

There’s a Right Way and Wrong Way to Free Yourself

Thankfully, all you need is a little extra gas to break the wheels free. However, there is a right way and wrong way to do it. Give it too much throttle and the truck will go shooting across the road and into the ditch on the other side. Don’t give it enough and it won’t break free.

The secret to pulling this off successfully is to use low four wheel drive. Low four wheel drive sends extra power and torque to the wheels, at the cost of speed. You can’t drive much faster than about 20 mph. This is exactly what we want to prevent us from flying across the road when the wheels break free.

In low four-wheel drive, the wheels broke free right away and the truck walked right back up onto the road. It was a bit tricky finding the pavement under all the snow and ice, but I managed to do so without incident. It was slow-going navigating down the steep, narrow, winding mountain roads and back around all of the downed trees, black ice, and fog. I was back on the freeway before I knew it.

Making a Fool of Myself in New Jersey After 40 Plus Straight Hours in the Car

I originally planned to spend the night at our family farmhouse in New Jersey instead of the campground. The house has no electricity or running water, so you’d still very much be camping. It has a spectacular fire place and plenty of room to spread out and stretch out.

However, a monster nor’easter struck the northeast and mid-Atlantic shortly before my trip. It buried New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania under nearly 4 feet of snow. With the property completely snowed-in, I had to make other arrangements.

Even though I couldn’t spend the night there, it was the perfect place to stop and have lunch. More importantly, it was a safe place to stretch my legs after 40 some odd straight hours in the car. With the exception of quick stops to get gas, I hadn’t gotten out of the truck since I left Norman, Oklahoma the previous day.

As Graceful as a Baby Giraffe

If you’ve ever seen a newborn giraffe try to get up and walk around, that was me on the street in front of the farmhouse. My legs had all but turned to rubber. But it felt so good to be out of the truck and moving around.

I had been in the truck for about the same amount of time it would have taken to fly from Los Angeles to Bangkok and back. Interestingly, it felt both like I had been driving non-stop for days and like I had only been driving for about 5 minutes since I left Norman. That’s far from the only instance that Covid has warped the sense of time.

Unfortunately, it also warped my sense of time for how long I had stopped. By the time it felt like I had finally stopped to decompress, I looked at the clock. Much to my dismay, over 2 hours had passed since I arrived at the farmhouse. It was after 3:30 PM. There was no way I would make it through New York City before rush hour.

The Final Leg

I begrudgingly got back in the truck to drive the last segment from New Jersey to Massachusetts. When we would take family trips to see relatives in New Jersey when I was a kid, it felt like you were driving half way around the world. At the end of this pandemic odyssey, the timing felt more like driving down the street to go to the grocery store.

Thankfully, the COVID-19 pandemic still kept a significant segment of the New York workforce remote. Traffic on the New York Thruway flowed smoothly, looking much more like mid-day than rush hour. I hit a few brief slowdowns on the Merritt Parkway once I got into Connecticut. Other than that, you could travel at the speed limit on both the Merritt and on Interstate 95.

One Last Hurdle

Massachusetts is one of the states that is pretty strict about people coming in from out of state. Everyone coming from a high-risk state must fill out a travel affidavit stating that you have not been knowingly exposed to COVID-19 or have any symptoms. At the time I arrived, the only state that was not considered high risk was Hawaii. You must then quarantine for 10 days upon arrival.

Interestingly, they ask that you submit the travel form before you arrive in Massachusetts. There is no penalty if you don’t, though. I meant to fill it out during my stop in New Jersey, but got distracted laughing at myself over the baby giraffe incident. However, I had been treating state lines like crossing international borders. It dawned on me as I crossed into Rhode Island that I hadn’t yet filled out the travel form. I filled it out a rest area just inside the Rhode Island state line before continuing on to my final destination in Massachusetts.

Mandatory Quarantine

I was lucky enough to have a friend who was in Florida for the winter. They offered their summer house to do my quarantine. It was a relief not worrying about exposing my mom and dad to anything I picked up on the road. The quarantine went smoothly. I got caught up on a lot of work. However, I did find myself playing peek-a-boo with a pigeon on more than one occasion.

Up Next

Go behind the scenes next week and look at the data, modeling, and strategy sessions that kept me safe on this unique and memorable journey. All that, and much more right here next Friday at 9 AM Pacific Time. See you then.

Top Image: A Beautiful Morning Drive in the Appalachians
Morgantown, West Virginia – 25 February, 2021

The post Pioneering Peril, Part 2: Pandemic Polar Vortex Camping in Kentucky appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Last week, we looked at 15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Western United States. If you’re on the east coast, it’s your turn today. Let’s look at 15 COVID-friendly adventures in the Eastern United States that are proven to boost your mental health and refresh your soul.

A Word of Caution About Adventuring During the Pandemic

Just because we’re talking about fun adventures today does not mean it’s a green light to let loose. Don’t forget we’re still in the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic. Please consider the following precautions to ensure your safety during the COVID crisis.

• Stay close to home and stick to day trips.
• Only travel with people you live with. This is not the time to invite all of your friends.
• Obey all state and local COVID-19 restrictions, ordinances, and mandates.
• Pack food, drinks, and hand sanitizer so you don’t need to interact with the public.
• Don’t forget to be prepared for non-COVID hazards. Snow and ice can negatively impact many of these adventures.
• Always check the weather forecast and road conditions when traveling during the winter.

Now, let’s kick those Covid blues and put your mental health on the fast track to happiness.

1. Historic Route 66 – Illinois, Missouri, and Oklahoma

Is there anything more American than getting your kicks on Route 66? The eastern half of Historic Route 66 runs connects Chicago and Oklahoma City. The route runs along what is currently Interstates 44 and 55. However, you’ll find a much more authentic experience if you get off the freeway and drive the original road.

You’ll find a wide diversity of landscapes along the way. From the rolling hills of eastern Oklahoma to Missouri’s Ozark Mountains to the agricultural plains in Illinois, there is no shortage of great photo opportunities.

2. Tamiami Trail – Florida

Prior to the construction of Interstate 75, the Tamiami Trail was the only route connecting Tampa and Miami. You’ll find the best photo ops as the Tamiami Trail winds its way through the guts of the Everglades. Find a safe spot to pull off on the side of the road. Sit, watch, and enjoy the solitude. You’ll see alligators, birds, fish, lizards, and much more.

In addition, the many parks, preserves, and wildlife refuges on the west coast of the Florida peninsula make for excellent side trips. Just a few of my favorites include the JN “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel Island, Big Cypress National Preserve east of Naples, and and the Terra Ceia State Park and Aquatic Preserve north of Bradenton. On the Miami side, stop off at the Everglades and Francis S. Taylor Wildlife Refuges for additional nature and landscape photo ops.

3. Newfound Gap Road – North Carolina and Tennessee

Newfound Gap Road runs through the heart of Great Smoky Mountains National Park. It connects Cherokee, North Carolina with Gatlinburg, Tennessee. Pull off at any of the turnouts to find classic mountain views, lush forest scenery, and refreshing rivers. The best views are at the summit of Newfound Gap, which sits right on the state line. Be aware though, it can be crowded there.

To get away from the crowds, consider hiking a short ways down the Appalachian Trail. In addition to a bit more solace, you’ll get views that most others won’t see. You can also find more great views along the road to Clingman’s Dome. However, Clingman’s Dome can be busy and the road often closes in the winter due to snow and ice.

Please check road conditions before going in the winter. The road is narrow, with many sharp curves and steep switchbacks. The summit of Newfound Gap is over 6,000 feet (1,830 meters) above sea level and often closes in the winter due to snow and ice. If you’re not comfortable driving in snow and ice, I recommend avoiding this route.

4. Kancamagus Highway – New Hampshire

The Kancamagus Highway runs through the heart of the White Mountain National Forest in the shadow of Mt. Washington. While northern New England is best known for its spectacular fall colors, the Kancamagus Highway offers beautiful photo ops year round.

While you’re in the area, I also highly recommend driving north up Interstate 93 to Franconia. You’ll be treated to breathtaking views of the White Mountains. On the east end of the Kancamagus, stop and photograph any of the many covered bridges in the Conway area.

For the more adventurous, take a drive up Mount Washington during the warmer months. At the summit, you’ll see where some of the most extreme weather in the world is observed and studied. Scientists measured a wind gust of 231 mph (372 km/h) at the summit of Mt. Washington on 12 April, 1934. That record stood as the strongest wind gust ever measured on earth until the 3 May, 1999 tornado in Oklahoma. Today, it still stands as the strongest non-tornadic wind gust ever recorded.

5. Great River Road – Arkansas and Tennessee

Why risk exposing yourself to COVID-19 on one of the Mississippi River cruises when you can drive it instead? While you can drive along the river for its entire length, the best scenery is in Tennessee and Arkansas, with southern Missouri close behind it. Travel at your own pace, stop for some great photo ops, and find a quiet place for a nice picnic lunch along the river.

6. Discovery Route – South Carolina

Come out and explore everything South Carolina has to offer. The Discovery Route runs from Walhalla, in the far northwest, to Charleston. Along the way, you’ll be presented with photo ops of mountains, oceans, agriculture, rivers, and more. Stop at any of the state’s roadside fruit stands for a treat you won’t soon forget. If you’re there in August or September, South Carolina’s peaches are absolutely to die for.

7. Old King’s Highway – Massachusetts

Get an in-depth and hands-on introduction to Cape Cod’s culture, food, and scenery. Starting at the Sagamore Bridge, follow US-6 to its eastern terminus in Provincetown. Get off and explore historic towns on Massachusetts Highway 6A. Pack a picnic and have lunch at one of the Cape’s many world-famous beaches. As an added bonus, Cape Cod is headed into its offseason right now, so you’ll avoid the summer crowds.

The highlight of the drive is the Cape Cod National Seashore. Stop off anywhere on the eastern shores of Cape Cod. You’ll find incredible aerial and beach-level photo ops of the seashore. Taking a calming walk on the beach and enjoying the fresh sea air is a great temporary escape from reality, too.

8. Delaware Water Gap – New Jersey and Pennsylvania

The Delaware Water Gap is a breathtaking gap in the Appalachians where Interstate 80 crosses the Delaware River. While the area right around I-80 is popular due to its ease of access, the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area extends north most of the way to the New York state line. With so much room to spread out, there is no shortage of spots to tuck yourself away from crowds.

Taking a hike, going for a swim, and enjoying a relaxing afternoon on the boat are just a few of the many outdoor activities available at the Delaware Water Gap. Just choose your side of the river carefully, as river crossings are few and far between. Most of the recreation area is on the New Jersey side of the river, but the main north-south highway is on the Pennsylvania side.

9. Blue Ridge Parkway – Virginia and North Carolina

The Blue Ridge Parkway is one of the most scenic and well-known drives east of the Mississippi River. Stretching from Waynesboro, Virginia to Cherokee, North Carolina, there are new scenic vistas around every turn. Explore side expeditions including hiking trails, waterfalls, mountain biking, wildflowers, camping and much more.

If that’s not enough, there are national parks at each end of the Blue Ridge Parkway. At its northern terminus, take in the magnificent sights at Shenandoah National Park. At the south end, explore the majestic mountains of Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

10. Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway – Maine

Sitting in western Maine just a stone’s throw from both New Hampshire and Quebec, the Rangeley Lakes Scenic Byway is a true hidden gem. While the scenery is gorgeous any time of year, it is truly exceptional during the fall colors season. Make sure you stop at the Height of Land Overlook and take in the breathtaking views of Lake Mooselookmeguntic.

If you have additional time, find additional scenic scenery on Old Canada Road (US-201). Running from Skowhegan to the Canadian border, there are ample photo ops featuring mountains, rivers, forests, and more. Keep in mind that the US-Canada border is currently closed to all non-essential travel.

11. Panhandle Scenic Drive – Florida

If you’re looking for a relaxing beach getaway, Florida’s Panhandle Scenic Drive is for you. Take in the ocean, beaches, bays, and bayous as you make your way along US-98 between Apalachicola and the Alabama State Line. Once you get away from the population centers, you’ll pass through marshes, forests, and wildlife refuges.

Don’t be afraid to get off the beaten path a bit. For an even more unique escape, explore some of these areas in a boat. The entire coast of Florida is dotted with small islands that are only accessible by boat. What better way to boost your mental health than spending a day in the fresh salty air, away from civilization.

12. Talimena Scenic Byway – Oklahoma and Arkansas

Stretching across the top of a mountain ridge at an elevation of 2,000 to 3,000 feet, the Talimena Scenic Drive is hands down the best place in Oklahoma to view fall foliage. Listed as one of America’s National Scenic Byways, the 100 kilometer (60 mile) drive winds through the beautiful Ouachita National Forest and the majestic Kiamichi Mountains, connecting Talihina, Oklahoma to Mena, Arkansas.

If you’ve ever driven the Blue Ridge Parkway, you’ll be right at home on the Talimena Scenic Byway. There are stunning aerial views of mountains, valleys, forests, and farmland around every corner. Find a quiet spot to pull off, have a picnic lunch, breathe the fresh mountain air, and watch the world go by. Your mental health will thank you.

Note: The Talimena Scenic Drive is not maintained in the winter. If there are concerns about snow and ice, please consider driving US-59 through the valley instead.

13. Merritt Parkway – Connecticut

You may think it’s hard to partake in COVID-friendly adventures in such a densely populated area that is so close to New York City. Advertised as the Gateway to New England, the Merritt Parkway was the first limited access divided highway in Connecticut. It is one of the oldest scenic parkways in the United States.

Even though there are not a lot of places to tuck yourself away from the crowds, it’s still a great scenic adventure that will give you a great escape from the hustle and bustle of the city.

14. Historic National Road – Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio

The Historic National Road is a bit of a journey back in time through the Heartland of America. While you can choose the modern route on Interstate 70, why not break the monotony of the freeway? Much like Route 66, you can still drive the original Historic National Road, US-40, today.

The Historic National Road stretches from St. Louis nearly all the way to Pittsburgh. You’ll get plenty of photo ops as you pass through forests, plains, farmland, small towns, big cities, and much more.

15. Green Mountains Scenic Tour – Vermont and New Hampshire

There’s something special about the tranquility and quaintness of northern New England. That’s especially true in Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom. Start at the Canadian Border in Derby Line, Vermont and wind your way south along US-5. You’ll pass through the heart of northern New England’s rich history and culture.

You’ll have a choice when you get to St. Johnsbury, Vermont. Continue south along US-5 to take in the scenery right along the Vermont side of the Connecticut River. Alternatively, get on Interstate 93, hop across the river, and explore New Hampshire’s beautiful White Mountains and national forests. Rest assured that regardless of which option you choose, you’ll return home feeling relaxed and refreshed.

Note: While the US-Canada border is currently closed, I highly recommend that you go check out the national parks near Magog and Sherbrooke, Québec once the COVID crisis ends.

Conclusion

During the COVID crisis, it’s more important than ever to take care of your mental health. Getting out in the sunshine and fresh air to take in beautiful scenery is proven to be one of the best ways not only to boost your mental health, but make yourself feel good overall. Recharge your batteries and refresh your soul. Take proper COVID precautions, and you should have a fun and safe adventure.

Top Photo: A Sunny Winter Day at Woodneck Beach
Falmouth, Massachusetts – January, 2015

The post 15 COVID-Friendly Landscape Photography Adventures in the Eastern United States appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I only ran the models out until early May because we need to focus on what’s going to happen in the next two to three weeks, not what’s going to be happening several months in the future. Additionally, model forecasts get less accurate the further into the future you go. This run assumes current social distancing restrictions remain in place through mid-May and does not account for any additional surges or waves of the virus that may occur later this spring, this summer, or this fall.

Don’t forget, you can always get more information about the model and view detailed case data on my COVID-19 Dashboard. Additionally, I will write up a separate post about the mathematics, equations, and methodologies used in my coronavirus model, which I’m hoping to get posted in the next day or two. Stay tuned for additional discussions about each hot zone as more data comes in.

Alberta

Arizona

British Columbia

California

Connecticut

Florida

Georgia

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

Oklahoma

Ontario

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Québec

Rhode Island

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

U.S. Virgin Islands

Washington (State)

After several requests, I updated this post on 16 April, 2020 to include additional states and provinces, bringing the total to 26 plots instead of 24.

Top Photo: Palo Duro Canyon State Park – Amarillo, Texas – August, 2019

The post A Look at the Best-Fit COVID-19 Model Curves for 24 Key States and Provinces appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Overview of SIR Model Output

Each city has four plots. The top row is the “working” model output, with the model curve best fit to the actual data. The bottom row is an experimental model output showing the effect of social distancing. In the “working” model runs on the top row, there are 5 lines on each plot. The middle line is the R Naught value that was reverse-engineered by fitting the model output to the actual data, and there are two lines on each side of the best-fit line showing different R Naught values in steps of 0.2.

Note: The y-axis on some of the experimental social distancing plots showing the total case count (bottom right plot for each city) is mislabeled. It should read “Total Cases”, not “Number of Infected”.

Finally, don’t forget that the plots below assume the R Naught values and the amount of social distancing remains constant throughout the entire time series. In reality, additional social distancing restrictions will dampen the curve and shift it to the right, while removing social distancing restrictions will cause the curve to accelerate and shift to the left.

Confidence in SIR Model Predictions

My confidence level in the “working”/top row model outputs is as follows:

• Predicting the apex of the outbreak: medium-high to high. The curves should at least be “in the ballpark.”
• Predicting the total number of cases: low to very low. With how fast things are changing right now and how fast new data is coming in, we just don’t know at this point. My gut feeling is that the case count projections in these model runs are likely high overall, but from a public health perspective, I would much rather have the model overestimate case counts than underestimate them.

Plots are in alphabetical order by city, with a table of additional cities at the bottom. Click on any plot to view it full size.

Boston, Massachusetts

Chicago, Illinois

Detroit, Michigan

Los Angeles, California

Montréal, Québec

New Orleans, Louisiana

New York, New York

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Ottawa, Ontario

Portland, Oregon

Phoenix, Arizona

San Francisco, California

Tampa, Florida

Toronto, Ontario

SIR Model Outputs for Additional Cities

Please note that this table contains outputs of just this single model run and does not necessarily reflect what my actual predictions are. I will be putting this table on my COVID-19 Pandemic Tracker later this week and regularly updating it there.

Data points I’m skeptical of in this output (with some comments):

• Chicago, IL: Case count is likely overestimated. I’m not sure why, but the most likely reason is good social distancing.
• Los Angeles, CA: Case count is likely overestimated due to California being better at social distancing than what was input into the model
• Seattle, WA: Peak date is incorrect due to the State of Washington’s 100th case occurring before John’s Hopkins began breaking down data by state.
• Washington, DC: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve
• Winnipeg, MB: Not enough data to accurately fit the curve

The post Complete Revised SIR Model Forecasts (8 April): USA and Canada appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.