We’re going to look at the same four models as we did for Hurricanes Henri and Ida last summer. However, I just launched a complete redesign of this blog less than a week ago. That redesign will allow us to analyze the models in a way that’s much easier to compare, and hopefully much easier to understand. Let’s get started.

Big Picture Overview

When I look at the “big picture” meteorological setup, I immediately see just how similar this setup is to the October, 2021 nor’easter. That storm slammed into southern New England on 26 October, packing wind gusts over 100 mph (160 km/h) and heavy rains. Trees and power lines were down all over the place, knocking out power for several days. At one point all of Massachusetts south and east of the I-95 corridor was 100% without power.

Likewise, the current storm is a rapidly strengthening, or “bombing” cyclone. To be classified as a bomb cyclone, a storm must undergo a 24 millibar pressure drop in 24 hours. Will that happen with this storm? It remains to be seen, but it’s quite likely.

On the upper air map, you’ll see a large, powerful trough digging south over the Carolinas. That trough will rapidly strengthen, undergoing bombogenesis as it pull north. Look at all the energy, shown in the orange and red colors, off the coast of Georgia and Florida.

What Causes Bombogenesis?

There’s one major feature on the above map that jumps out at me. See the corridor of strong winds that stretches from northern Mexico to the southern tip of Florida? That’s the subtropical jet, which serves two purposes here.

1. Funnels a nearly endless stream of rich tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing bomb cyclone.
2. Exerts a west-to-east force on the southern edge of the nor’easter, which accelerates the spin of the upper-level low.

Both influences will have significant impacts on rain and snowfall totals, as well as wind speeds. We’ll dive into those details shortly. Furthermore, even without the subtropical jet, the storm will track pretty much right over the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream alone provides more than enough fuel for the storm to rapidly strengthen and maintain itself.

Similarities to the October, 2021 Bomb Cyclone

So just how similar are the meteorological setups between this storm and the October nor’easter?

• Both storms are bomb cyclones
• They both formed off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas
• There is an immense amount of tropical moisture to tap into from the Gulf Stream
• Steering currents are nearly identical

This Bomb Cyclone will not Impact New England like the October Storm Did

The greatest impact of the October storm was the widespread power outages. As a New England native, I’ve been through some monster storms over the years. I’ve never seen power outages and downed trees anywhere close to the magnitude we saw following the October nor’easter.

Thankfully, it’s extremely unlikely you’ll see anything remotely close to the magnitude of power outages in October. The biggest difference is that the leaves are no longer on the trees. As a result, the surface area of the trees is far less, meaning that it takes much greater winds to do the same amount of damage. Additionally, the most vulnerable limbs, branches, and trees came down in the October storm. This time around, trees and limbs won’t come down nearly as easily. Don’t get complacent, though. The risk of power outages is definitely there with this storm.

However, where you may dodge one bullet, there are others you’ll have to content with. The shift from fall into winter brings in much colder air. The precipitation in the October storm all fell as rain. This time around, you’ll be dealing with snow. And lots of it.

A Better Storm For Comparison

In fact, for a much similar storm, forget the October nor’easter. Instead, go back to exactly 7 years ago today – 27 January, 2015. That day, the first Blizzard of 2015 dumped over 3 feet of snow across southern New England. It kicked off an infamous snowmageddon winter, that plunged the region into a months-long deep freeze.

All right, enough history. Let’s dive into the models.

Model Comparison: Bomb Cyclone Track and Timing

Let’s look at the same models we did with our analysis of Hurricanes Henri and Ida last summer. If you’ve forgotten those models, here they are.

For tracking and timing, you want to focus on the position of the center of the surface low, denoted by the red “L” on the map. In addition, note the timestamp on the upper left corner of the map. Those timestamps are in Zulu time, or UTC. Eastern time is 5 hours behind UTC. Don’t worry about the wind barbs for now. We’ll look at those in much more detail shortly. Click on any image to view it in full size.

As you can see, the American, European, and Canadian models are in very close agreement with each other. They show the the low passing just offshore of Cape Cod and the Islands around 00Z on Sunday (7 PM EST Saturday). The UKMET shouldn’t be discounted, either. It’s timing agrees with the other three models. Steering currents over the Appalachians can easily push the storm further offshore. However, it’s unlikely that it will pass any closer to the coast than what the GFS, ECMWF, or GDPS indicate.

Model Comparison: Bomb Cyclone Intensity (Pressure)

All right, it’s time to answer the million dollar question: will this storm bomb? To do this, we’ll need to figure out when each model expects the storm to reach its peak intensity, or minimum pressure. Then, we’ll compare the pressure at its peak intensity to the pressure 24 hours earlier. Remember, in order for a storm to be considered a bomb cyclone, it must undergo a 24 millibar pressure drop in 24 hours. Here is when each model expects the storm to reach its peak intensity.

Now, all we need to do is compare it to the same plots 24 hours earlier.

So do the models expect the storm to bomb? Here are their official predictions.

Models are usually not this assertive, but that’s a pretty definitive yes. The storm will bomb. Cue Toots and the Maytals.

Wind Forecast

Whenever a nor’easter undergoes bombogenesis, one thing is assured: there will be wind. Lots of it. So just how much wind will there be? You probably remember the October bomb cyclone, which brought 100-plus mph (160 km/h) wind gusts to southeastern Massachusetts. Thankfully, I’ve got some good news for you: you won’t see winds like that with this storm.

Look North to Canada for the Best Indicators of Potential Wind Speeds

The fiercest nor’easters get their winds from the pressure gradient between the bombing low and a strong high pressure system over southern Québec. But have a look at this. The high over Québec is much further north and east than it traditionally is for the really bad storms. In fact, it’s not over Québec at all. It’s actually over Newfoundland and Labrador.

Because the high is further away, the pressure gradient won’t be as tight. As a result, wind speeds won’t be as high as they would have been had the high been closer. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a tight pressure gradient, and you’ll still get plenty of wind. It just won’t be as bad as it could have been. Combined with the expectation that the center of the low will pass offshore instead of right over Cape Cod and the Islands, I expect winds to be less than the bomb cyclone that hit New England last October. Let’s look at the models.

When I look at the models’ wind predictions, I prefer to look at the sustained winds about 400 to 500 meters above the ground, at 925 mb. In coastal areas, models can sometimes underestimate wind speeds when they try to calculate how friction and terrain impact the wind as it comes off the ocean. The 925 mb (400-500 meter) predictions remove those possible anomalies, and also give you the maximum potential wind speeds.

How Much Wind to Expect in New England

In the wind forecasts above, I don’t see any plausible scenario where the ECMWF (European) model forecast verifies. You just simply aren’t going to get winds that strong that far inland. Using the other three models, it’s clear that the strongest winds will be contained to the immediate coastal areas.

Areas that are exposed to the north along the South Shore and the Cape and Islands will see the greatest impacts from the wind. You’ll find the strongest winds on the Cape and Islands. Right now, my best guess is that sustained winds will peak in the 40-50 knot range in exposed areas across the Cape and Islands. Hurricane-force gusts are certainly possible, but I don’t expect anything close to the 100 mph gusts that ripped through during the October storm.

Temperature and Wind Chill: How Cold will the Bomb Cyclone Get?

Despite the availability of rich, tropical moisture, the bomb cyclone will have a very well-established cold core by the time it reaches New England. Furthermore, all of New England and the Canadian Maritimes will be on the cold side of the storm as it passes by. As a result, you should expect bitterly cold wind chills during the bomb cyclone. The models are all in agreement.

Expected Temperatures

Expected Wind Chills

When looking at temperatures and wind chills, you really need to look at the coast vs inland. Even in extreme conditions, the ocean still helps regulate temperatures near the coast. That being said, with the exception of Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and possibly parts of the outer Cape, wind chills will struggle to get out of the single digits. If you’re inland, you’ll see sub-zero wind chills for pretty much the duration of the event.

Precipitation Type

With strong northerly winds, sub-zero wind chills, and everywhere on the cold side of the system, it should not be a surprise that this will be a snow event. Parts of the outer Cape and the Islands may briefly see a little ice mix in during the warmest part of the storm early Saturday afternoon. Other than that, it will be all snow.

On the models, we’ll look at the maximum temperature in the vertical column of air during the warmest part of the storm. Blue and purple indicates that the entire column is below freezing. You will see snow in those areas. Areas in green may briefly see some ice or sleet mix in early Saturday afternoon before changing back to all snow. That’s a result of air on the warm side of the storm wrapping around the top of the low as it approaches.

The European and British models do not calculate the maximum vertical temperature, so we’ll only consider the American and Canadian models. As you can see, their two predictions are nearly identical.

Snowfall Totals Will Be Measured in Feet, Not Inches

Whenever you have a storm that has both bitterly cold temperatures and an ample fuel supply of rich, tropical moisture, you’re going to get massive snowfall totals. However, there is a bit of a silver lining. All four models are showing noticeably less snow totals than they were yesterday. Unfortunately, they are still showing around two to three feet maximum snowfall totals for this bomb cyclone.

Because the GFS and GDPS models use the Kuchera Ratio, which is the most accurate, to predict snowfall, we’ll give the heaviest weight to those models. However, for a number of reasons, nailing down exact snowfall totals for a precise location is extremely difficult in this scenario.

1. The low still hasn’t really formed yet, so we don’t have any actual data from it to feed into the models.
2. The snowfall gradients are tight. A small wobble in the storm track can make a big difference in the snow totals. For example, take any of the above predictions and shift the snowfall totals 40-50 miles east or west.
3. A westward shift in the storm’s track may mean some areas – particularly parts of the Cape and Islands – may see more ice, sleet, or mixed precipitation on Saturday afternoon, which would reduce snowfall totals. Again here, a small shift in the storm’s track can make a big difference. In this scenario, inland areas would also see greater snowfall totals.
4. An eastern shift in the storm’s track would shift the precipitation shield east, meaning the heaviest snow could fall offshore.

How Much Snow Should You Expect?

We can give equal weight to all four models to determine where the heaviest snow will fall. Given my experience both with the models and with these types of bomb cyclones, I think the heaviest snow will set up in southeastern New England, along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor. Rhode Island will take a pretty good wallop, but will ultimately be spared the worst of the snowfall. Total accumulations will drop rapidly once you get west of I-95.

For the largest snow totals, I think 20 to 24 inches across Bristol and Plymouth Counties in Massachusetts is your safest bet at this point. That swath will likely spread across western Barnstable County (Cape Cod) and up into the far southern suburbs of Boston as well. 28 to 32 inches in a few isolated spots is certainly not out of the question, either, but I am not expecting widespread totals above 2 feet.

Summary

I know there’s a lot of information in this post, so let’s put it into a nice, clean table to summarize everything.

Conclusion

Like many other bomb cyclones, this is certainly a storm that you’re certainly going to want to take seriously. However, New England has certainly gone through far worse in the past. Make sure you stock up on what you’ll need for a few days, and then hunker down at home and enjoy it. The storm is fast moving, so it’ll be in and out in only about 24 hours. Then it’s just a matter of digging out, cleaning up, and getting back to your normal routine.

If you have any questions about anything related to this storm, please let me know in the comments below or reach out to me directly.

The post Wicked Bomb Cyclone Set to Pound New England with Fierce Winds and Heavy Snow appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

1. A country announces they have discovered a new variant
2. Experts speculate that this is the variant that will evade vaccines
3. Everyone freaks out and panics for a few weeks
4. Data proves that vaccines still provide adequate protection against the variant
5. You see a wave of the variant sweep through many countries
6. Life goes on

With the omicron variant of COVID, most countries are currently in the early stages of step 5. However, there are still two big unknowns: how big will the wave be, and how quickly will it surge?

The Omicron Surge Will Resemble the COVID Spike in India From the Delta Variant

Remember how highly contagious the Delta Variant is? As you can probably guess, the Omicron Variant must be significantly more contagious in order to out-compete Delta. And initial data shows that it is. As a result, Omicron will spread much faster, making the spike taller. But there’s a silver lining: it will come and go quickly. Think of it coming through like a tornado instead of a hurricane. Recall the COVID spike in India from the Delta Variant.

Because Omicron is more contagious than Delta, that spike will be taller, but last shorter. And don’t forget to account for population. With nearly 1.4 billion people, India is the second most populous country in the world. Smaller populations in just about every other country will result in both a shorter and less severe spike. In an Omicron wave, the United States is the only country that has the potential to come anywhere remotely close to the 400,000 daily cases that India saw in their Delta spike. And I think even that is highly unlikely.

COVID Cases from the Omicron Variant Have Already Peaked in Some Countries

Yes, you read that right. The Omicron wave has already peaked in some countries. After South Africa first identified Omicron in late November, health officials quickly contact traced cases back to both Germany and the Netherlands. And guess what? New Omicron cases are now falling in all three countries.

Omicron has obviously spread far beyond those three countries. However, I expect any Omicron surges in other countries will resemble the time series above.

A Word of Caution About South Africa’s Demographics

South Africa has one of the most advanced and sophisticated health science programs in the world. There is nothing wrong with data coming out of South Africa. In fact, I trust their data 100%. The issue lies primarily in South Africa’s age demographics, which heavily skew towards younger people. Just 5.5% of South Africans are over 65. That’s a stark contrast to 17% in the United States, 16% in Canada, and 21% in the European Union. That’s why health officials originally cautioned about reports of omicron in South Africa being primarily mild. Thankfully, data from the European Union seems to confirm that omicron is less severe than Delta.

Additionally, don’t forget that South Africa’s location in the Southern Hemisphere means that they are heading into summer right now. Omicron is so contagious that summer vs winter may not make any significant difference anymore. However, data since the start of the pandemic has repeatedly shown that surges are worse in the winter season, regardless of which hemisphere you live in.

I Believe the Omicron Variant Originated in Europe, Not Africa

Just because South Africa discovered the Omicron variant doesn’t necessarily mean that it originated there. And after looking at the data, I believe that Omicron actually originated in Europe and was then brought to South Africa, not the other way around.

First, let’s recall the new daily COVID cases from Germany, the Netherlands, and South Africa we just looked at in the previous section.

What jumps out at me right away? The slope of the upward side of the omicron spike in late 2021 is identical in all three countries. While it’s not definitive proof, it’s likely that the same variant caused all three surges. And we know for certain that Omicron caused the surge in South Africa. In addition, Notice how the spike starts earlier in both Germany (black) and the Netherlands (red) earlier than it does in South Africa (green). We’ll circle back to this in a sec.

Second, look at how Omicron spread in South Africa. The first clusters emerged in Gauteng Province, which is mostly comprised of the City of Johannesburg. And do you know what’s in Johannesburg? South Africa’s largest international airport. Nearly all international flights in and out of the country go through Johannesburg. As Omicron spread throughout the country, the worst of the outbreak remained in Gauteng. Interestingly, Gauteng was also the first province in South Africa to reach the peak of the Omicron outbreak.

Botswana Contact Traces Omicron Back to Europe…Before Any Evidence of it Appeared in Africa

After popping up in South Africa, Omicron quickly jumped the border into neighboring Botswana. With the help of the South African Health Ministry, the Federal Government of Botswana contact traced omicron cases back to the Netherlands as early as 8 November. And it may have been in Germany earlier than that.

Furthermore, after extensive contact tracing, neither Botswana nor South Africa could find any evidence of the omicron variant in Africa prior to 15 November. If it was in Europe as early as 8 November, but didn’t appear in Africa until the 15th, how could it have originated in Africa? For reference, South Africa announced the discovery of Omicron on 26 November.

Timing of the Omicron Wave Lines Up Perfectly with it Originating in Europe

To prevent confusion, let’s have a look at new daily Covid cases in just Germany. The start of Germany’s Omicron spike lines up perfectly with Botswana’s contact tracing of Omicron back to the Netherlands on 8 November. Germany’s uneven uptick in cases in late October is likely from the Delta Variant.

Repeat the process for the Netherlands and you get the same perfectly-aligned timing.

Interestingly, the data out of both South Africa and Botswana seem to confirm the contact tracing that Omicron was not present in Africa prior to 15 November. Unlike Germany and the Netherlands, South Africa’s Omicron spike did not start until after they announced they had discovered Omicron on 26 November.

So is this definitive proof that Omicron originated in Europe? Most certainly not. However, it does illustrate how ineffective travel bans are in stopping COVID-19. If my theory is true, banning travel from southern Africa would have done absolutely nothing to stop the Omicron variant if it originated and had already taken hold in Europe.

What Will the Omicron Spike Look Like in the United States, Canada, and Great Britain?

All three countries will see something similar to what India saw with Delta, or what Germany, the Netherlands, and South Africa saw with Omicron. The million dollar question is how big will the spike get, and how long will it last?

To answer those questions, let’s look where each country stands right now. All three countries have started spiking from Omicron. The United States currently has the highest new daily case loads, and as a result, will likely get hit the hardest. The UK is experiencing the biggest spike, while Canada is in the best shape of the three.

For what to expect, let’s turn to the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and and Evaluation (IHME) model.

As expected, I tend to agree with the IHME’s most likely projections. I think both the Universal Masks case as well as the worst-case scenario are both highly unlikely. Holiday gatherings may slightly increase the peak daily cases as well as push the peak date shortly into the future.

We Are Much Better Prepared for Omicron than Any Previous Variant of COVID

Despite all of the doom and gloom predictions, the world is much better prepared for Omicron than any previous variant. First, and foremost, we still have highly effective vaccines. Yes, their effectiveness took a hit, but go back to the Fall of 2020. As companies raced to develop vaccines, most infectious disease experts said that vaccine effectiveness of 50-60% would be a major victory. After a booster shot, both Pfizer and Moderna are reporting 70-75% effectiveness against Omicron.

Furthermore, many more people have immunity after the Delta wave. Through both vaccinations and natural immunity, the pool of susceptible people is much smaller than previous variants had, and that pool keeps shrinking every day. Combined with the highly infectious nature of Omicron, the wave will be over before you know it.

In addition, antiviral treatments are becoming more effective and more widely available. In fact, some of the antivirals are not expected to lose any effectiveness because they don’t target the virus’ spike protein, which is where all of Omicron’s mutations are. And it seems like more treatments are being approved just about every day.

Finally, don’t forget about what I said about Delta. The more infectious it becomes, the harder it will be for other variants to compete with it. As a result, that may end up being a blessing in disguise and help us end the pandemic sooner. The same logic applies to Omicron.

Other Areas of Interest to Watch

Besides all of the countries and regions we have covered so far, there are a few additional areas to watch over the next few months as Omicron spreads around the world.

Conclusion

The Omicron Variant is a harsh reminder that the COVID-19 pandemic is still far from over. However, the panic and hysteria surrounding Omicron is largely unwarranted. Yes, some restrictions will likely be re-introduced, but we will not be going back to the dark lockdown days of March and April, 2020. Back then, there were no vaccines and no treatments.

Today, we have a much bigger toolbox. Go get your booster, and be smart about your holiday gatherings. The Omicron wave will be in and out quickly, regardless of what country you’re in. Then, we can get back to living our lives, and be one step closer to putting this awful pandemic behind us once and for all. Happy New Year, everyone!

Top Image: Matt’s COVID-19 Risk Index for the United States as of 23 December, 2021

The post Why You Shouldn’t Panic Over the Omicron Variant of COVID-19 appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

So what’s my secret? I apply my education and experience in meteorology and storm chasing to make weather a focal point of my landscape photography and travel videos. Being proactive instead of reactive allows me to stay in front of changing weather. As a result, I am already in position ready to shoot whenever my target weather arrives. It doesn’t matter if I’m waiting for a sunset, a blizzard, or a thunderstorm. The strategy is the same. And today, I want to teach you that strategy so you can use weather to improve your landscape photography and travel videos.

A Word About Safety While Filming Weather

Whenever you go out in the field when hazardous weather is expected, safety should always be your number one concern. You can easily get yourself hurt or killed if you bite off more than you can chew. For example, don’t try to shoot lightning in the middle of an open field. If you don’t feel comfortable doing something, then don’t do it. It’s not worth hurting or killing yourself just to get “the shot”.

The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model

The U.S. Federal Government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed the HRRR model (pronounced “her”). As a result, its spatial domain is limited to the United States. Because of its extremely fine resolution, it is highly accurate, having never let me down once during my tenure chasing storms. My own intuition ignored the model a few times, and let’s just say those always ended in busts.

The HRRR has several key features.

• Initialized from the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model, which gets its data from the global GFS (American) model.
• 3 km resolution is fine enough to resolve most individual thunderstorms, making it an invaluable tool for storm chasing
• Runs once per hour, on the top of the hour
• Forecasts 48 hours into the future, a significant increase over its 12-hour forecasts when I started storm chasing

While you can easily get HRRR predictions from most modeling sites, I prefer to get it straight from NOAA. When you load the NOAA site, you’ll see an interface that looks like this. To zoom in on a particular geographic area, select a region from the “Domain” dropdown. The timestamps contain the day of the week and the hour of the day, in UTC. Each row is a different model parameter. Click on a cell for the parameter and forecast hour you want to see, or click on the check in the “Loop” column to see a loop of all times.

Basic HRRR Parameters

Before I begin a model analysis, I like to look at the basic weather parameters, both on a national and regional scale. Here are the HRRR parameters that correspond to the basic weather data. We’ll define them shortly once we dive into some examples.

We’ll dive into additional parameters that are specific to certain types of weather phenomena, photography, and videography later in this tutorial, but these are more than enough to get you going.

HRRR Time Zones

All HRRR parameters and runs are initialized and output using Universal Coordinated Time (UTC), or Greenwich Mean Time. UTC always uses the 24-hour clock, so you don’t need to worry about AM or PM. The model often uses Zulu notation to indicate times. For example, if the model date says “14 Dec 2021 – 17Z”, that means that the model was run on 14 December, 2021 at 17:00 UTC. In the model output, “Wed 08” indicates the model’s prediction for Wednesday at 08:00 UTC.

Basic Storm Chasing Strategy for Weather Photography

You can ask three different storm chasers for their strategy, and you’ll probably get three very different answers. However, I prefer to keep my strategy as simple as possible. Not only because I’m a big believer in the moniker “Keep It Simple, Stupid”, but also because it makes it much easier to share my knowledge with you. Even though I designed this strategy for storm chasing, you can apply it to every type of landscape photography or travel video.

Step 1: 1 to 2 Days Before the Chase

Look at the Storm Prediction Center‘s (SPC) Day 2 and 3 Severe Weather Outlooks. Next, read the forecasts and discussions from your local National Weather Service Office. Finally, have a look at the weather models, looking for where the parameters best come together. At the very least, look at the GFS (American) and ECMWF (European) models. You may not quite be into the HRRR’s time range yet. However, if you are, please use the HRRR, too.

Your goal is to identify broad potential target areas. For example, you could identify Western Oklahoma, Central Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle as potential targets. While the outlook above doesn’t give the whole picture, targeting Northwestern Oklahoma and South-Central Kansas seems like a pretty safe bet. Don’t worry about specific locations within that target area yet. You’ll figure that out once the event gets a little closer and the models get a better idea of what’s going to happen.

Step 2: The Evening Before the Chase

Using the same resources you used in Step 1 to choose your preferred target area. If you can identify a backup target area in case your primary target doesn’t work out, great, but it’s certainly not necessary. At this point, you can start looking at specific areas inside your broader target area. You just want to identify them, since you won’t choose one until tomorrow.

Step 3: The Morning of the Chase

Have a final look at the models, SPC Outlooks, and local forecasts before you hit the road. Confirm or adjust your chosen target area as needed. After that, choose a specific area to start within that broader target area.

Additionally, you should identify a jumping off point before departing for the chase. The jumping off point should be close enough to where storms are expected to fire, but far enough in front of them so you’re not trying to outrun them just to get ahead. I often used small towns, truck stops, and scenic lookouts as jumping off points. Look for places where two major roads intersect. You want to quickly and easily be able to go north, south, east, or west once storms fire.

Step 4: Drive to Your Target Area

Once you’re on the road, you should be checking the HRRR every hour or two. That way, as you drive to your jumping off point, you can easily adjust it as necessary. Try to arrive at least 30 minutes before storms are expected to initiate so you can get your gear set up. If you pick your jumping off point correctly, you’ll be in perfect position when storms do fire.

Step 5: Wait for Storms to Fire

Once storms initiate, use doppler radar to identify the specific storm you want to chase. Your target storm should align with your goals for the chase. For example, you could pick very different storms depending on whether you were doing weather or landscape photography versus trying to deploy sensors into the storm. Then, the chase is on.

My Greatest Storm Chasing Success: The 19 May, 2012 Harper, Kansas Tornadoes

My greatest storm chasing success came when a hunch, model intuition, and a little luck all came together just perfectly. I could write an entire post telling this story, so I’ll give you the abridged version here.

For several days leading up to 19 May, 2012, it became clear that there was a very good chance for tornadoes near a triple point that was setting up in south-central Nebraska. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of a triple point, it’s the point where a warm front, cold front, and dryline meet. Model runs the morning of the chase confirmed that Nebraska was the most likely spot for tornadoes.

I wasn’t all that keen on driving from Oklahoma all the way to Nebraska, so I instead decided to look for something closer to home. That’s when I turned to the HRRR. It showed a window of very favorable conditions for tornadoes opening along the Kansas-Oklahoma border just before sunset. It was a very brief window – only about 20 minutes or so – but it looked even better than Nebraska. Timing would be critical.

Not wanting to rely on just a single model, I looked at several other models. They all showed the same window for tornadoes opening up along the Kansas-Oklahoma border. I had to give it a shot. Before I knew it, I was on the road, heading north up Interstate 35.

Everything Comes Together Perfectly for Awe-Inspiring Weather and Landscape Photography

I got up to the Kansas-Oklahoma border about 2 hours before sunset. My first stop was right off I-35 in Blackwell, Oklahoma to set up my jumping off point. A quick look at the HRRR showed everything was still in place for tornadoes at sunset just north of the state line. I decided to head west and make Medford, Oklahoma my jumping off point, which gave me easy access to a northbound road (US-81) into Kansas.

Before long, clouds started to bubble up on the dryline out to the west. Satellite and radar confirmed the HRRR’s predictions that the storms were going to be north of the state line, so I decided to move my jumping off point up to Caldwell, Kansas. By the time I got to Caldwell, the storms had fired and were heading towards the town of Harper, Kansas. I continued north and the chase was on. By the time I got to US-160, the weather radio was already blaring with Tornado Warnings. All I had to do was head west.

Just east of Harper, I pulled off onto a side street and had the whole show to myself. There was not another vehicle around, let alone any chaser traffic. That cluster of supercells produced over a dozen tornadoes in about 20 minutes, capped off by a breathtaking EF-3 tornado packing winds over 160 mph. The setting sun behind it was just icing on the cake.

Then, just like that, our very brief window for tornadoes slammed shut. The tornado became rain-wrapped before lifting as the sun set and darkness set in.

The Sweetest Victory Lies in the Photography

As I made my way back to I-35 to head home, lots of storm chasers started passing me going the other direction. After being so void of vehicles the entire chase, I couldn’t believe how many storm chasers were now heading towards Harper. But I knew they were too late. The tornadoes were done. The window was closed.

Interestingly, I didn’t realize the sweetest part of my victory until the next morning when I turned on the local news. Remember that triple point up in Nebraska? It had completely busted. Have a look at the storm reports. The red dots are confirmed tornadoes.

As a result, all of the chaser traffic I encountered on my way home were everyone who had been up in Nebraska racing down trying (unsuccessfully) to catch the storms in Kansas. I was one of only a small handful of people who had gotten footage of tornadoes that day.

Severe Weather in Landscape Photography and Travel Videos

As you can probably guess, the most practical application of our storm chasing strategy is for severe weather photography. Here are some severe weather parameters you should consider for your photo or video shoot. I’ve defined them in layman’s terms to help you understand them. You need to look where all of these come together with the target values. Just one parameter being off can completely shut off all storm activity.

Sunrises and Sunsets in Landscape Photography and Travel Videos

The Golden Hour is one of the most sought after period for landscape photographers and travel videographers. The low, warm light seems to make the landscape glow and the shadows dance. It’s a truly magical time of day. In fact, weather is what transforms you sunset landscape photography from okay to jaw dropping. Fortunately, the HRRR makes it pretty easy to identify the best location to film a sunrise or sunset.

Before we dive into the HRRR parameters, let’s recall what makes a good sunset. Brilliant sunset colors come from light refraction through clouds, dust, and other particles, so we need to examine cloud cover and thickness closely. Too many or too few clouds will result in a lousy sunset.

Unfortunately, the HRRR does not output cloud thickness as a parameter. However, it does output all of the parameters we need to calculate it. To get cloud thickness, simply use one of the following equations. The terms of each equation are defined below.

cloud thickness = cloud top height - ceiling
cloud thickness = cloud top height - LCL

Do note that if you’re using the second equation, cloud top heights are output in feet, while the LCL is output in meters! For best sunset colors, you want 25 to 45% coverage of thin, mid-to-high-level cirrus or cumulus clouds.

A Word About the Cloud Ceiling

The cloud ceiling is primarily used in aviation to indicate the height of the bottom of obstructing clouds. That means that if there is a cloud ceiling present, clouds will likely be thick enough to obscure the sunset, regardless of whether you find them in the low, mid, or high levels.

Additionally, don’t forget that rain showers can also make for spectacular sunsets. However, you should only try to integrate rain showers into your landscape photography in the summer. Small, pop-up summer showers can refract the light in spectacular ways. Winter showers are most often too thick and widespread to refract any light, which will ruin your sunset. Use the 1 km agl reflectivity parameter to evaluate rain shower potential.

Finally, know what compass bearing the sun sets or rises at. That bearing varies by both location and by time of year.

Winter Weather in Landscape Photography and Travel Videos

I break winter weather photography into two categories: inside the storm and post-storm. Both have their pros and cons. On one hand, you can capture the drama and intensity of blowing snow and bitter cold temperatures from inside the storm. On the other hand, a post-winter storm period can often be a spectacular 24-hour long Golden Hour to add breathtaking weather scenes to your landscape photography or travel videos. A fresh blanket of snow on a dramatic landscape makes for absolutely stunning photos and videos. For a textbook example, just have a look the Grand Canyon under a fresh blanket of snow.

Thankfully, both types of winter weather photography use the exact same strategy and parameters with the HRRR. The only difference is the timing.

For in-storm filming, you may want to also consider both wind speed and visibility. Alternatively, if you’re heading out after the storm, you’ll generally want at least 5 miles (8 km) of visibility, with at least a little sunlight poking through the clouds.

Finally, a word of caution. Be very careful around winter weather. Roads can close and travel can become impossible with little to no warning. If you don’t feel comfortable doing something, don’t do it. Trust me, you do not want to be stranded in your car in the middle of a major winter storm. If you have four wheel drive and/or tire chains, use them.

Lightning in Landscape Photography and Travel Videos

Lightning photography is one of the most challenging types of weather photography, but also one of the most rewarding. If just 5% of your lightning photos come out, you’re doing extraordinarily well. Thankfully, lightning happens everywhere, so you shouldn’t have to travel great distances to film it. In fact, you don’t need severe weather to get good lightning.

Before setting off to photography lightning, you must ensure your own safety. Lightning is one of the top weather killers not just in the United States, but around the world. Always shoot lightning from inside a building or car, or at the vary least, a grounded overhang. Do not under any circumstance stand under trees to try to film lightning. Trees often explode when struck by lightning, which will shower you in splinters, jagged wood, and molten sap.

Lightning Strategy

The strategy for lightning photography is staggeringly simple: set up in a dark spot at night, open the shutter, and let the picture take itself. If you’re shooting video, you can film lightning in the daytime, but even then, I still find your best shots come at night. Set up a ways from the storm to shoot lightning. That way, you’ll stay out of the rain. You’ll need a bit of luck, but when you do succeed, the results are, quite literally, electric.

While it’s impossible to predict exactly when and where lightning will strike, the HRRR will give you enough information to have a really good shot at it. Try to set up in a location where you don’t put yourself directly in the storm’s path.

Rainbows in Landscape Photography and Travel Videos

Most rainbow photos occur when you happen to look up and see a rainbow. But believe it or not, rainbow chasing is actually a thing. And unlike tornadoes, lightning, and blizzards, rainbows are one phenomenon you don’t have to worry about killing you while you’re out doing weather or landscape photography.

In order to see a rainbow, you need to put yourself between the sun and the rain, with the sun behind you and the rain in front of you. In order to see a rainbow in the afternoon or evening, you want to be looking east at the rain. On the other hand, you want to look west to see rainbows in the morning.

Additionally, sun angles play a critical role in finding rainbows. Unless you’re standing on top of a mountain or skyscraper, it’s much easier to put yourself between the sun and the rain when sun angles are low. As a result, you are much more likely to encounter rainbows during the Golden Hour period near sunrise and sunset than you are at high noon.

You can easily track cloud cover and precipitation with the HRRR. However, keep in mind that rainbows are far from guaranteed under any circumstance. No model is accurate enough to predict exactly where a rainbow will occur.

Weather in Seascape Photography

Seascapes are a stunningly effective way to integrate weather into your landscape photography and travel videos. Similar to winter weather photography, you have two options when it comes to the seascape side of landscape photography. With a few very unique exceptions, they require being in vastly different locations. If you’re looking to double-dip and get both types in one shoot, you’re likely going to be disappointed.

Cold Weather Seascape Photography

Largely grey and void of color, when taken correctly, viewers can almost feel the cold from a maritime layer that’s often thick and penetrating when they look at the photo or video. Locations such as downeast Maine, northern Europe, the Pacific Northwest, and the Canadian Maritimes come to mind when you think of cold weather seascapes. You’ll need to look at a few HRRR parameters

Tropical Seascape Photography

White sand. Warm breezes. Salty air. Lit up with brilliant and vibrant greens, blues, and turquoises, tropical seascapes will whisk you off to paradise. They’re warm, inviting, and relaxing, putting you in that vacation mode whenever you look at them, seemingly an escape from your reality. That’s probably why you have them as your computer desktop and have them hanging throughout your office. You can almost taste the fruity cocktails before you snap back into reality.

Interestingly, tropical seascapes are one of the only types of outdoor photography or videography that are more striking in the middle of the day than during the Golden Hour. Applying color theory explains a lot. Warm low light doesn’t draw out greens and blues. In fact, it does the opposite.

Finally, don’t forget about the optics and the physics of your tropical seascape. Those brilliant colors come from the sunlight refracting in the water. In order to maximize the brilliance of those colors, the sun must be as high in the sky as possible. Thick cloud cover blocks much of the sunlight, significantly limiting the amount of light that can refract in the water. As a result, colors will appear dull, dim, and muted.

Temperatures for Seascape Photography

You may have noticed that temperature is missing from the HRRR parameters for seascape photography and videos. Why is that? It’s because you don’t actually need cold temperatures for grey seascapes or warm temperatures for tropical beach photos. Don’t believe me? Have a look at these pictures I took at Lake Tahoe during the month of February. Temperatures that day topped out at 41°F (5°C), with plenty of fresh snow in the mountains.

Mist or Fog in Forest Landscape Photography and Travel Videos

I love forests shrouded in mist. They instill a sense of mystery and adventure, often whisking you away to another world. There’s a reason they are the setting of so many adventure movies. And I just love the striking contrast of the sun shining through the mist like a spotlight.

Best of all, you can find misty forests year round. One of my favorite locations to capture misty scenes is at Great Smoky Mountains National Park, which sits on the border between North Carolina and Tennessee. The sequoia and redwood forests in California are another top destination for misty forest photography and videography. Make sure you pick a destination that still has plenty of green in the forest. Early mornings in the spring and fall work best for mist, but you can get some stunning winter pictures in a forest of evergreens.

Before we dive into HRRR parameters, let’s have a look at what conditions make for the best mist photography. First and foremost, you need to have 100% relative humidity. Mist will not condense out of the air if the humidity is below 100%. Second, there should not be any wind. Wind causes mist and fog to mix out and burn off.

Go Up in Elevation to Lengthen Your Window for Mist

Once you start photographing fog and mist, you’ll be amazed at how quickly it comes and goes. This is especially true early in the day, as heat from the morning sun drops the relative humidity, rapidly burning off any mist or fog. However, there is one more secret weapon in our back pocket to maximize the length of your window for shooting mist: the much overlooked z-axis, or, to put in layman’s terms, controlling your elevation.

As you go up in elevation, the temperature cools. Because cooler air can’t hold as much moisture as warmer air, more moisture will condense out at higher elevations. As a result, fog and mist will hang around longer because it requires more energy to burn them off. But, like everything, it comes with a catch. If too much water condenses out, the mist and fog will be too thick to let the sunlight shine through. Those photos and videos can still be stunning, but you won’t get those really striking pictures of the sun shining through the mist. If you ever find yourself in this situation, go back down to lower elevations to thin out the fog and mist.

Live in the Desert? You’re Not Completely Out of Luck

And if you live in an arid climate, don’t worry, you can still get in on the action. Sunlight filtering through dust, pollution, or wildfire smoke can give you the same effect. Even in a desert climate like Arizona, you can still get spectacular mist scenery in the winter, when cooler temperatures are much more conducive to condensing out what little water there is in the atmosphere. Dawn after an overnight rain will present you with your best photo and video opportunities for mist and fog.

Get Started Boosting Your Efficiency Adding Weather to Your Landscape Photography and Travel Videos

NOAA’s High Resolution Rapid Refresh model is an incredibly powerful tool whose applications stretch far beyond storm chasing. When used with storm chasing strategy, you can take the guess work out of adding weather to your landscape photography and travel videos. Give yourself more control over your photo and video shoots and work much more efficiently. And at the end of the day, you’ll ultimately be able to boost your revenues. What are you waiting for?

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Top Photo: A large dust storm swallows up a mountain range as it crosses from Mexico into the United States
Why, Arizona – July, 2018

The post The HRRR Weather Model: How To Add Dramatic Skies To Your Landscape Photography appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Right on cue, a line of massive rotating supercell thunderstorms explodes on the dryline in the late afternoon. You don’t have to wait long before Tornado Warnings start blaring on the weather radio. Now, you have some decisions to make.

• What storm in the line do you target? The strategy for choosing a target storm for photography or video can be very different from deploying sensors in its path.
• How close to the storm can you get and still stay safe? Consider both storm intensity and speed at the very minimum.
• Are there any storms nearby that could cut off possible escape routes? On a high risk day, there likely will be.

Those are just a few of the decisions you’ll need to constantly be making while you’re actively chasing a storm. Because things happen so fast, you have to constantly evaluate and adjust as needed. But where do you get this info?

Enter Weather Apps

If you’re like me, you lack the budget for the state-of-the-art technology the professional photographers and videographers use for not just storm chasing, but any outdoor adventure. Unfortunately, most weather apps (especially the free ones) don’t give you the information you need to properly plan an outdoor photo or video shoot. But that doesn’t mean you’re out of luck.

While there is no one “silver bullet” app that will give you all the information you need, I will be giving you the storm chaser’s toolbox of weather apps to plan your next outdoor photo shoot. You’ll be amazed at how well these weather apps work for landscape photography and travel videos. And best of all, they’re affordable. There’s no need to shell out hundreds or thousands of dollars on high end software anymore.

I also want to point out that I am not affiliated with or paid by these applications in any way. This is just a collection of my favorite weather apps that I use on most of my landscape and outdoor photography and video shoots.

Weather Apps for Landscape Photography and Travel Videos

Weather is a key component of not just landscape photography, but also travel, adventure, and outdoor videography. It can make or break your shot. In fact, weather is often the difference between that awe-inspiring shot that will sell your photo or video and a visual media file that gets deleted before you even get a chance to post-process it.

No matter what type of weather you need for your shot, these apps will give you the information you need to ensure that you get the shot you want. They cover blue skies to blizzards, tornadoes to sunsets, and everything in between. Once you assemble this toolbox of weather apps for your landscape photography or travel video shoot, you will no longer need to waste time just “taking a chance” on a good sunset or an approaching storm. Instead, you’ll already be in position ready to start filming before your target weather phenomenon even arrives.

RadarScope: The Cadillac of Weather Apps

Platform: iOS, Android, macOS, Windows
$9.99 (mobile), $29.99 (desktop)

Originally developed in the weather mecca of Norman, Oklahoma, RadarScope was built with one goal in mind: to keep you safe during severe weather. It was my number one go-to app during the height of my storm chasing days nearly 10 years ago, and it remains the go-to app for storm chasers and weather enthusiasts today. Its user base now reaches much further than just the storm chasing community. And it includes both landscape photographers and travel and outdoor videographers.

RadarScope displays highly detailed doppler radar data on an easy-to-read map. Even better, they have managed to ver successfully pull off what I consider to be the Holy Grail of GIS. When you look at the screen, the map seemingly fades into the background, drawing your eye to the radar data. Yet at the same time, you can instantly tell where the severe weather is with just a quick glance. In the world of GIS, that’s an incredibly difficult thing to do, and they have pulled it off absolutely flawlessly.

In addition to viewable radar data, RadarScope comes with a plethora of features and functionalities.

Key Features of RadarScope

• GPS Support. Plot your location on the map with radar data
• Severe weather warnings displayed on the map. Tap on the warning to read the text of the warning.
• In addition to reflectivity data, it supports all types of doppler radar data, such as wind speeds, echo tops, estimated precipitation totals, and dual-pol technologies.
• Includes a distance measuring tool so you can easily see how far you are from severe weather threats or measure how high the radar beam is at any given location
• Drawing tool lets you mark up and share the radar image
• Quickly export maps and data as either animated GIFs or as still images
• Supports both metric and imperial units
• Currently supports radar in all US States and Territories, as well as Canada, Australia, several European Union nations, Japan, and South Korea.
• Pro version has even more features, such as lightning strikes, split screen comparisons, watches and mesoscale discussions, storm reports, and much more.

Nothing has proven more valuable for my storm chasing, photography, and adventures than RadarScope’s GPS feature. Being able to plot your location on the map is critical to ensure that you are in the best position to capture the shots you need for your project. Even for benign weather features such as sunsets, things happen incredibly fast once you get out in the field. You don’t want to miss your shot trying to figure out where on the map you are. RadarScope’s GPS ensures that you can reposition and make adjustments as quickly as possible.

Windy

Platform: iOS, Android, Web Browser
Free, Pro Features Available

Windy is my favorite app for viewing model data on my phone or tablet. Best suited for detailed short-term forecasting at all geographic scales, Windy has a stunning display showing atmospheric flow around the world. View real-time observed data or model predictions in four dimensions. Windy provides two-dimensional maps at numerous heights throughout the atmosphere, as well as vertical soundings and time-series point forecasts for your specific location.

Windy currently provides model predictions for four models. You can find support for the GFS (American), ECMWF (European), and NAM (North American Mesoscale) models, as well as a German model called ICON, which stands for Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic.

Key Features of Windy

• Stunningly beautiful display for analyzing data
• Huge choice of weather parameters to plot
• Data available in four dimensions and all geographic scales, including point forecasts
• View both observed data and model predictions on the same map
• Includes forecasts for airports, sports/recreation, wildfires, tides, and much more
• Bookmark your favorite locations for easy reference
• While it doesn’t support plotting your location on a map like RadarScope does, Windy does have GPS functionality that allows you to quickly and easily get data for your current location.
• Supports both metric and imperial units

Pivotal Weather

Platform: Web Browser
Free, Pro Features Available

If you’re looking for comprehensive model data, Pivotal Weather is where you need to be. Best used for both short and long-term modeling, you’ll find detailed model forecasts for over 20 global, regional, and mesoscale models. Like Windy, Pivotal Weather allows you to display data in four dimensions at all geographic scales. It works on a global scale, so you’re not restricted to specific countries or other geographic boundaries. We used Pivotal Weather extensively during our analysis of Hurricane Henri and Hurricane Ida last summer.

My favorite feature of Pivotal Weather is its high quality maps. So many weather modeling websites have such poor quality maps that it can be difficult in some situations to pin down exactly where a weather event will take place. While it’s not a big deal on a large scale, it can become a major issue once you drill down to the local level. Pivotal Weather lets you plot model data at those local levels, plus displays the predicted value as you mouse over the map.

Key Features of Pivotal Weather

• More than 20 global, regional, and mesoscale models
• Provides data worldwide
• Displays model predictions in four dimensions at all geographic scales
• Numerous choice of map scale levels
• Much higher quality maps than most weather modeling websites.
• You’ll get the best experience viewing on a computer, not a phone
• Additional features available with Pivotal Weather Plus

Federal Weather Bureaus

Platform: Web Browser
Free

How many times have you opened a free app or website and just got bombarded with ads, pop-ups, and other promotions? That’s why I often go straight to the source for weather data and information: the federal government. Because federal weather bureaus in every country are government agencies, you won’t get bombarded with all the ads, video clips, and other useless promotions you find on so many other apps and websites.

Federal weather bureaus are one-stop shopping for observations, forecasts, analysis, and past data. In addition to their own analysis, most federal weather bureaus provide the data so you can also do your own analysis. You’ll have all tools to look at all geographic scales, regardless of whether you’re looking at the entire world or your neighborhood. Use the models and forecasts to identify the best spot for your shoot. Once you get out in the field, use observations to fine-tune and adjust your strategy and location as needed.

Here are a few links to federal weather bureaus around the world. If your country is not listed below, a quick Google search will find it pretty quickly.

National Centers for Environmental Protection

Platform: Web Browser
Free

If you’re in the United States, the National Centers for Environmental Protection, or NCEP, contains all of the weather information you need to plan and execute a successful outdoor photo or video shoot. Run by NOAA and the National Weather Service, NCEP is comprised of 8 centers. While they are primarily aimed at the United States, many of them make predictions that go beyond America’s borders.

The Possibilities for Using NCEP Weather Apps for Landscape Photography and Travel Videos are Endless

The possibilities for using these weather apps for landscape photography and travel videos are endless. Use the Climate Prediction Center to look at historical weather patterns to ensure that the weather will cooperate for your shoot. For instance, you don’t want to head down to the Caribbean to film a hurricane only to find out that a strong El Niño has neutralized the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Additionally, visit the Aviation Weather Center for all your drone photography and video needs. Perhaps you want to try your hand at storm chasing? In that case, the Storm Prediction Center has all of the information you need. Likewise, use the Space Weather Prediction Center to plan your Aurora Borealis or astrophotography shoot. The list goes on and on.

I could write an entire blog post on NCEP alone, but you get the idea.

NOAA High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model

If RadarScope is my favorite weather app to use in the field for landscape photography and travel videos, then NOAA’s HRRR model is its best compliment. Excelling in day-of-event modeling and forecasting, use the HRRR to anticipate any adjustments you’ll need to make in your shoot. Its 3 km resolution is fine enough to resolve most individual thunderstorms, making it an incredibly powerful tool for outdoor photography and videos. As a result, it has never let me down in every storm chase I’ve taken part in since 2011.

For example, consider a simple sunset shoot. Sounds easy enough, right? Conditions in the morning look perfect for a spectacular sunset. Unfortunately, you are completely unaware a storm system is moving in from the southwest. Thick clouds will cover the western sky, completely obscuring the sunset.

Thankfully, you have been monitoring the HRRR throughout the day. As a result, you see that your original plan for a spectacular sunset will go down in flames. Additionally, you see that the spectacular sunset will occur about 70 miles up the coast. You adjust your plan accordingly, leaving an hour earlier so you can get up the coast in time for sunset.

Most importantly, though, you capture one of the best sunsets you’ve ever seen. As soon as the prints hit your online store, they start selling like hot cakes. Imagine how different things would have turned out if you hadn’t been able to anticipate that storm system coming in.

Use the HRRR for All Types of Outdoor Photography and Videos

The HRRR includes highly detailed information for every type of outdoor photography or videography. That’s what makes it so powerful. You’ll be able to use it for everything from sunsets to winter weather, fire weather to space weather, and lightning to beach photography.

Next week, we’ll cover the HRRR model in detail. You’ll learn how to use the HRRR to apply storm chasing strategy to your outdoor photography and videography. After that, you’ll be armed with the tools you need to take your landscape photography and travel videos to the next level.

How Will You Use Weather Apps for Your Landscape Photography and Outdoor Shoots?

Weather is an often mundane part of our everyday lives. However, once you get out in the field to film it, weather seems to happen extremely fast. They key to success with any type of outdoor photography or videography is to stay ahead of the weather. These weather apps provide you with the toolset you need to take your landscape photography, travel videos, and other outdoor media to the next level. Use them responsibly, and always keep safety in mind first.

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The post 6 Powerful Weather Apps for Stunning Landscape Photography appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

I also believe that the Delta Variant is so dominant that it will ultimately help us end the COVID-19 pandemic sooner. How is that, you ask? It’s actually quite simple

• It blocks other potentially vaccine-resistant variants from taking hold. The Mu Variant that everyone thought was vaccine-resistant has been eradicated. No other variants have been able to establish themselves since Delta became dominant.
• It spreads so fast that most places will reach herd immunity faster.
• Treatments continue to improve, which will help drive down the death rate

Furthermore, the models have spoken loud and clear about the outlook for this winter and the end game for the COVID-19 pandemic. And they’re largely in agreement, too. Barring some freak mutant variant emerging, the COVID-19 pandemic will finally start winding down in 2022.

End Game in the United States: COVID-19 Has Started Shifting from Pandemic to Endemic

As soon as COVID-19 began to spread around the world, it became clear the the only end game is for the virus to become endemic. In its final endemic phase, the virus continues to circulate through the population, but at a much slower rate than during the pandemic phase. As treatments become more effective and widely available, the virus becomes much less dangerous. Many infectious disease experts predict that once COVID-19 reaches its final endemic stage, it will be a similar threat to the flu or the common cold.

Current Status of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

First, let’s look back at what the COVID-19 map looked like back in the summer. Highly vaccinated areas had largely suppressed COVID-19 spread. On the other hand, the Delta variant had set the southeast on fire, where you could find the lowest vaccination rates in the country.

By September, the epicenter had spread north and west, hitting the Inner Mountain West and the Ohio Valley particularly hard. Both areas still have large pockets of unvaccinated residents.

Today, the summer wave has largely subsided. The last dregs of it are rolling through the upper midwest and the northeast, as well as parts of the southwest. All in all, the country is in much better shape than it was back in September. Additionally, notice how the current map looks almost like the inverse of the August map. If reinfections are not occurring in the hard-hit southeast, that’s a major step forward to reaching herd immunity.

Despite the threat of another wave, I do not see any scenario where the United States implements more COVID-19 restrictions. Pandemic fatigue is real, and it’s unlikely further restrictions will be effective. So what exactly lies ahead? Let’s dive into the models.

University of Washington IHME Model

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model remains the gold standard go-to model in the United States. Everyone from the White House to the media to everyday citizens like you and me use it to plan their lives amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.

Before we dive into the cases and deaths, let’s first look at mobility and vaccination projections. Both parameters will help us understand the big picture. Lots of people will be traveling for the holidays this year, even though large pockets of the population remain unvaccinated. First, let’s look at the vaccination projections.

One thing really jumps out at me here. The model projects that vaccine coverage will basically plateau starting in January 22, with 63% of the population fully vaccinated. With a population of 330 million, that means that 125 million people in the United States will remain unvaccinated. Thankfully, that should be high enough to keep hospitals from being completely overwhelmed.

As for mobility, the IHME agrees with my prediction that the United States will not implement any further restrictions. Mobility should approach its pre-pandemic levels in early 2022.

Do Case Loads Lead to the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Before we look towards the end of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, there is still one final hurdle to clear: the holidays. Remember that in 2020, holiday travel and gatherings sent COVID-19 cases spiking to nearly 300,000 per day in the U.S. Things are much different this year, but the threat of another wave is still very real.

A fifth wave in the United States would take on one of two forms. You could have a tsunami of cases like we did last winter or when the Delta Variant hit this summer. However, this scenario is quite unlikely due to the vaccines and the high number of infections in the United States. Instead, my gut feeling is that you’ll see much more of a minor uptick, similar to Scenario 2 in the plot below.

The IHME model agrees. Its official projection calls for a minor uptick of COVID-19 cases over the holidays. Only in the worst case scenario do you see anything like what the U.S. experienced this summer.

COVID-19 Simulator Model

The COVID-19 Simulator is run by Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Georgia Tech, and the Boston Medical Center. We’ve used it in many of our past analyses and forecasts. It has been reliable and accurate throughout the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Because I’m not expecting that the United States will make very many changes to the current COVID-19 protocols, let’s initialize the model to run on the current interventions for the full 16 week projection. To account for waning immunity, let’s also bump the vaccine efficacy down to 75% from its default 90%.

The COVID-19 Simulator falls largely in agreement with the IHME. In a worst-case scenario, new daily case loads would remain below the September, 2021 surge, peaking around 148,000 new cases daily. However, the far more likely scenario is that you’ll see a slight bump in cases as people gather for the holidays. Hopefully, once that’s done, we can have a much clearer view of the COVID-19 pandemic’s end game.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Model

The MIT Model is based off of the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Removed) Model. Like our model, it accounts for features specific to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as government intervention, vaccinations, and human behavior. And it’s probably the most optimistic of the three models. It doesn’t expect much, if any, surge due to the holidays. In fact, it predicts that the United States will only gain about 1 million more cases in the eight-week period between now and late January, 2022.

^ Cumulative case projections from the MIT Model ( https://www.covidanalytics.io/projections)

Places Delta Has Hit Hard Appear to Be Reaching Herd Immunity

One very encouraging pattern that has emerged is that places that the Delta Variant has hit very hard to not appear to be getting much by way of reinfections. Indeed, cases loads and risk levels across the southeastern United States are at the lowest levels they’ve been since the beginning of the pandemic.

This pattern is becoming prevalent around the world. India and Indonesia both experienced major spikes of the Delta Variant between April and July. Both countries have brought new case loads to near record lows and have kept them there. You can say the same thing for Japan. Following the Olympics in July, Japan experienced a major Delta Variant Spike. It’s now reporting less than 200 new cases per day. Even Brazil, which has had a moderate burn throughout the pandemic instead of a big spike, has gotten new case loads down to their lowest levels since May, 2020.

While these are only a few examples, this scenario is playing out in countries on all 7 continents.

Watch the Southern Hemisphere for a Preview of the COVID-19 End Game

Throughout the pandemic, Southern Hemisphere winters (June to September) have offered a glimpse into what the Northern Hemisphere should expect for its winters. While they haven’t been a perfect crystal ball, they have at least gotten us in the ball park for what to expect. And even though not all Southern Hemisphere countries have experienced a spike of the Delta Variant, the ones that did have all gotten case loads down to near record lows and kept them there.

Southern Hemisphere countries on the African continent have had particular success at keeping case loads down following a Delta Variant spike. And keep in mind, vaccines are still few and far between in many of those countries. In fact, the Southern Hemisphere as a whole seems to confirm the models’ predictions that the end game for the COVID-19 pandemic will come in 2022. However, for the best previews of what the United States has in store, I would watch Australia and South Africa.

How Close is the United States to Herd Immunity?

It’s hard to say for sure how close the United States is to herd immunity, but we can run some back-of-the-envelope calculations to get a ballpark number. First and foremost, there are likely far more actual infections than the data show. And that’s true in every single country across the board. The data only contains diagnosed cases from tests. With so many cases either asymptomatic or mild, many people did not get tested even though they contracted COVID-19.

Even though the U.S. has about 48 million positive tests, experts believe that the actual number of cases could be as high as 200 million. However, I think that it’s unlikely that high. Instead, let’s use the COVID-19 Simulator’s best estimate of total U.S. cases: 157 million.

US Population = 330 million
Estimated Cases = 157 million
157 million / 330 million = 47% of population has contracted COVID-19

Now, we’ll add in the vaccinations. About 59% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated. However, we must keep in mind that a portion of the vaccinated population has also contracted COVID-19, either before vaccines were available, or as a breakthrough case. For purposes of this argument, let’s assume that half of the vaccinated population has also contracted COVID-19. When calculating the total population that has immunity, we’ll need to subtract those from the vaccinated pool so they’re not counted twice.

330 million * 0.59 = 195 million fully vaccinated
195 / 2 = 98 million vaccinated, but have not contracted COVID-19

157 million infections + 98 million vaccinated = 255 million immunized
255 million immunized / 330 million population = 77% of population immunized

It’s believed that 90 to 95 percent of the population must be immunized to reach full herd immunity against the Delta Variant. The United States isn’t quite there yet, but it’s getting close. These calculations also point to the COVID-19 end game coming in 2022.

A Tale of Caution: Zero-COVID Strategy Does Not Work Against the Delta Variant

Unfortunately, not every country is succeeding in the war against COVID-19. Europe has once again become the epicenter of the pandemic. Cases are surging in New Zealand. Much of Southeast Asia and Oceania are coming down off of record Delta spikes. What do these countries have in common? They all adapted a zero-COVID strategy at the onset of the pandemic, and the Delta Variant is forcing them to abandon that strategy because of its extraordinarily high transmissibility.

Can Zero-COVID Countries End the Pandemic with Vaccines?

It’s unlikely vaccines alone will end the pandemic. The Delta Variant is so contagious and transmissible that you’d need to vaccinate more than 95% of the population to reach herd immunity through vaccination alone. However, that doesn’t mean vaccines can’t suppress clusters, waves, and hotspots. Just have a look at Europe.

This graph tells the whole story.

So what does this all mean for Europe? Europe is likely going through the same Delta spike that the United States and so many other countries saw back in July and August. Did you notice on the figure above that neither Germany (black line) nor Czechia (blue line) had a major COVID-19 surge over the summer of 2021, while Spain did?

Rapid Vaccine Rollout Kills One-and-Done Delta Spikes in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia had done a stunningly good job controlling COVID-19 until the Delta Variant arrived in May, 2021. After abandoning their zero-COVID strategy, many countries saw horrific Delta spikes as the variant ripped through the population. But the pattern has mirrored what the rest of the world has seen. You get one major spike in cases, and once it peaks, you can quickly suppress it through both vaccines and natural immunity.

Three countries in Southeast Asia really stand out for having some of the highest vaccination rates in the world. They are Cambodia, Malaysia, and Singapore. All three countries saw a major Delta spike earlier this year, and rapidly rolled out vaccines to kill the outbreak in its tracks. Even neighboring Thailand is seeing remarkable success despite having a much lower vaccination rate. Unlike the United States, all four countries continue to rapidly vaccinate their populations.

The lesson for the United States here is that it, too, can keep the Delta Variant at bay. Even if it can’t ramp up its vaccination rate, highly-effective new treatments coming on the market should help blunt the death rate, even in the unvaccinated. Herd immunity is in sight, but you can’t rule out another surge this winter. We just need do everything we can to get there as quickly and safely as possible.

Conclusion

It’s been a long two years, but the end game for the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be finally starting to come into focus. As weird as it sounds, the Delta Variant is actually helping us end the pandemic. It has kept other variants at bay, while establishing a clear pattern around the world. You’ll need to endure one major spike from the Delta variant. And once that’s finished, when coupled with a high vaccination rate, herd immunity should be in sight.

The United States has already endured the worst of the Delta spike. Whatever surge we get this winter should be minor in comparison. The combination of highly effective vaccines and treatments is the silver bullet we’ve been waiting 2 years for. Let’s finally put an end to all of this once and for all.

The post Is the United States Nearing the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic? Model Predictions May Surprise You. appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

At the storm’s peak, over 500,000 households in southeastern Massachusetts – about 20% of the state’s population – were without power. And the power outages in those households lasted days, not hours. I’ve been through plenty monster storms on the Cape. The only storm that comes anywhere close to the 2021 bomb cyclone in Massachusetts was Hurricane Bob in 1991. After the worst of the nor’easter passed on Tuesday night, the damage was so bad crews were unable to restore power to most customers until Saturday evening.

Furthermore, I’ve witnessed firsthand both EF-5 tornadoes (Moore in 2013) and Category 5 hurricanes (Wilma in 2005) while living in Oklahoma and Florida, respectively. While the magnitude of the damage to personal property from the 2021 Massachusetts Nor’easter pales in comparisons to those storms, it did just as much, if not more damage to the power infrastructure. This fact really piqued my interest, and I really wanted to know why. Today, we’re going to dive into exactly that.

Upper-Level Meteorological Analysis of the Massachusetts Bomb Cyclone

When we look at observations, we use the same strategy as we use for model analysis. We look at the big picture first, so we can better understand what’s going on at the local level.

Two things jump out at me immediately when I look at the upper-level trough over New England. First, the trough is negatively tilted, which means that its axis tilts from northwest to southeast. Negatively tilted troughs like to “dig” to the south, which increases their magnitude. As the trough’s magnitude increases, it pulls in more energy, causing it to strengthen.

Second, the presence of strong winds on the northern side of the storm indicate there is plenty of energy for the storm to tap into. You can see this in the blue hatched area indicated greater than 40 knot winds over New Hampshire and southern Maine. Under normal circumstances, the upper-level low gets its power from the jet stream driving its southern edge. Any additional forcing on the northern edge acts to supercharge the low. If you think of the strengthening low as a car rolling downhill, the additional forcing on the northern edge is the equivalent of stepping on the gas as you go downhill.

The 2021 Massachusetts Bomb Cyclone is Born

Indeed, as the upper-level low “digs” to the south, it rapidly strengthens. Notice how much bigger the blue hatched area (>40 kt winds) has gotten over New England. As the wind on the northern side of the low increases, the low rapidly gains strength. And as the low gains strength, it increases the wind on the northern side of the storm. This positive feedback loop is what meteorologists refer to as bombogenesis. As winds circling the low increase, the pressure at the center of the low decreases. When the pressure drops 24 mb in 24 hours, you have a bomb cyclone. Indeed, observed surface pressure at Nantucket fell 28 mb in 24 hours as the storm strengthened.

Going back to the car rolling downhill analogy, the 2021 Massachusetts bomb cyclone didn’t just hit the gas. It hit the supercharger and the nitrous, too.

Surface Analysis of the Massachusetts Bomb Cyclone

So what gave this bomb cyclone not just its fuel, but its nitrous, too? A very strong warm front passed over the northeast and mid-Atlantic on Monday, 25 October. In its wake, it left unseasonably warm temperatures and high dewpoints from Virginia to Cape Cod. Widespread temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s and dewpoints in the mid 60’s gave this storm more than enough fuel, er nitrous, it needed to undergo bombogenesis.

However, there’s much more to the story at the surface than just a warm front. We’ll need to look at the surface low itself.

A Very Tilted Low Pressure System off the Coast of Massachusetts

A vertical profile of the atmosphere can tell us a lot about whether a low pressure system is expected to strengthen. If the lows are in roughly the same location as you go up, that’s called a “stacked” low, which is the system’s preferred stable equilibrium. In a stacked low, both the upper-level and low-level lows compete for the same fuel supply. At that point, the storm has reached maturity and is unlikely to significantly strengthen.

On the other hand, if the low pressure centers differ in location as you go up, that’s called a tilted low. When a tilted low occurs, it will naturally try to align itself and become stacked. However, until it does, the lows at each different height do not have to compete for the same fuel supply. While the lows try to align themselves vertically, they pull in energy. As a result, the storm strengthens. In the case of the 2021 Massachusetts bomb cyclone, it created ideal conditions for rapid intensification because of the enormous amount of fuel at the surface and the low being so heavily tilted.

Use the sliders below to see the difference in position between the surface low and the upper-level low. You’ll see the surface low centered just off of Cape Cod, while the upper level low is over Delaware. In the second frame, which was about an hour after the storm had finished bombing and had reached its peak strength, notice how much closer the surface and the upper-level lows are to each other.

Cape Cod Bears the Brunt of Bombogenesis

The positioning of the lows played a major role in the bomb cyclone hitting Cape Cod and the South Shore so hard.. Because the upper-level low is much more powerful than the surface low, it pulls the surface low into it as it tries to stack itself. Unfortunately, the surface low happened to be sitting pretty much right over Cape Cod as that happened. As a result, the surface low did not move for more than 12 hours as it rapidly strengthened. It battered the Cape with 70-80 mph wind gusts throughout the daylight hours on Wednesday.

Interestingly, that’s not the full story of why the winds were so strong. For more, we actually need to look between the surface and upper-level lows.

Mid-Level Meteorological Analysis of the Massachusetts Bomb Cyclone

Whenever you’re dealing with a strong low pressure system like the 2021 Massachusetts bomb cyclone, there’s one final ingredient to the strong winds: the low-level jet. The low-level jet is a fast-moving current of air circulating around a low pressure system, usually at 850 mb, or about 1.5 km above the surface. It’s common in low pressure systems for the low-level jet to mix down, which often brings strong wind gusts to the surface.

Indeed, if you look at the low-level jet at the peak of the storm, the strongest winds are over southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. With sustained winds in the low-level jet reaching 80 knots (92 mph), it’s certainly not a surprise that the low-level jet mixing down contributed to wind gusts between 95 and 100 mph across Cape Cod and the Islands.

To determine just how likely winds in the low-level jet will mix down to the surface, let’s look at the wind shear in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. The larger the gap in wind speed between the low-level jet and the surface winds, the more likely the low-level jet is to mix down and create very gusty winds. Indeed, that’s exactly what you see, circled in the pink box on the sounding. There is a gradient of about 40 knots over the lowest 500 meters or so of the atmosphere.

As a result, the low-level jet easily mixed down to the surface. Reports of wind gusts in excess of 80 mph poured in from southeastern Massachusetts throughout the day on Wednesday, 27 October.

Power Outages in Southeastern Massachusetts

Not surprisingly, a bomb cyclone of packing gusts close to 100 mph caused power outages. What surprised a lot of people, however, was just how widespread all of those power outages were. At the peak of the storm, over 500,000 households were without power. Plymouth and Barnstable Counties were close to 100% out of power. These outages include schools, hospitals, fire and police stations, and more. The storm spared nobody.

It took utility crews 5 days to restore power to most customers. At our house in Falmouth, we lost power shortly after 2 AM on Wednesday. It didn’t come back on until 10:15 PM on Friday.

So what cause such extreme widespread power outages? Let’s start with the peak wind gusts. If you line up a map of peak winds with the map of the power outages, they overlap nearly perfectly. And keep in mind that the actual peak wind gusts were likely higher than this map shows. The power was already out at most of these stations before the worst of the nor’easter hit. I can tell you from having been in the storm, the peak gusts in Falmouth were way higher than what this map shows.

When the wind gusts line up so perfectly with the power outages it means one thing. Trees falling on power lines were the primary culprit that causes the power outages.

Why Did So Many Trees Come Down?

It’s only logical to wonder why an October nor’easter knocked down more trees than most hurricanes. It comes down to a combination of three factors that came together absolutely perfectly.

First, a huge amount of rain fell ahead of the storm. The ground was fully saturated when the peak winds hit, making it much easier to uproot trees. When it was all said and done, the Upper Cape and South Shore (Plymouth County) took the brunt of the storm, and were without power for the longest. It’s not a coincidence that the highest rainfall totals were also in that same area.

Second, the leaves were still all on the trees when the bomb cyclone hit. If you think of the trees as a lever, the leaves give the wind much more surface area to blow on. As a result, any gust of wind has much more purchase and leverage than the same gust of wind in the middle of winter. It takes much less wind to knock down trees with leaves on them than without.

Finally, power infrastructure in New England dates back to the 1800’s. Much of that infrastructure is still in place. Unlike many other places, most power in New England relies on power lines instead of running underground. Couple that with shoddy tree trimming and power lines literally running through the middle of trees, and it’s a recipe for disaster.

What a Difference Underground Wires Makes

I was living in Norman, Oklahoma when the 2013 EF-5 tornado tore through the City of Moore packing winds of 210 mph. Many older neighborhoods throughout the Oklahoma City Metro are full of large trees, much like New England. At its closest point, the Moore Tornado passed less than 4 miles from my house.

In its aftermath, the power was out for less than 2 hours, not just in Norman, but also within Moore itself. So what’s the big difference compared to New England? Most power lines in central Oklahoma are underground, and those that aren’t are built to withstand up to an EF-3 tornado.

How Can We Prevent This Level of Damage in the Future?

As the climate warms, these bomb cyclones will become more common. The best solution is to bury the power lines. It’s impossible for falling trees to take out power lines that are underground. Unfortunately, the cost of burying power lines is extraordinary. As a result, the power companies, the town, and even the state routinely balk at it.

The next best solution is to pass laws that require trees to be trimmed a certain amount back from power lines. The goal here is not to prevent trees from falling on power lines, but to minimize the risk of it. California is starting to do this after power lines have started so many fires in the Golden State. The New England states should start giving it some serious thought, too, because this will happen again.

Conclusion

The 2021 bomb cyclone was basically a 100-mile wide EF-1 tornado that lasted for 12 hours in southeastern Massachusetts. As I drove around town in the aftermath of the storm, I found it very interesting that the damage much more closely resembled tornado damage than hurricane damage. Either way, it was one hell of a storm that won’t be forgotten any time soon.

I’ve also heard plenty of comparisons of the 2021 bomb cyclone to the Perfect Storm in 1991. Both storms occurred within a few days of Halloween, packing winds of 75-80 mph and pressures as low as 980 mb. However, that’s about where the similarities end in my opinion.

The Perfect Storm started as a hurricane and got absorbed into the jet stream, much like Hurricane Sandy did in 2012. The 2021 bomb cyclone never had any tropical characteristics. Instead, it was a cold-core mid-latitude upper-level low like every other nor’easter that has ever hit New England. Only this time, everything came together just perfectly for it to morph into a monster.

Top Photo: Downed Trees Hang From Power Lines Following the Bomb Cyclone
Falmouth, Massachusetts – October, 2021

The post A Meteorological Analysis of Massachusetts’ Stunning Bomb Cyclone Damage appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Why Is Weather Forecasting Important for Landscape Photography?

Anyone can go out and take pictures of a beautiful landscape. We all have cameras on our smartphones these days. But what separates your “Average Joe” tourist from a world-renown National Geographic photographer? It’s a long list, but one of the primary reasons is that most tourists don’t take weather into consideration. They just shoot.

In the worst-case scenario, bad weather will ruin a photo op. At best, you’re missing out on an incredible opportunity. In most landscape photos, the sky takes up at least one third of the frame. That’s a lot of wasted real estate. On the other hand, use weather to your advantage and instantly set yourself apart from the bulk of the competition.

But just hoping you’ll get lucky with the weather is not enough. Getting the right weather for your shot is a crapshoot at the best of times. Without a strategy, you’re setting yourself up for a low success rate and an inefficient workflow. However, when armed with basic knowledge of weather models, you’ll be able to target your photo shoots with laser-like precision. The frustration will be gone, and you can enjoy much more efficiency and success.

Being Flexible and Adaptable is Key to Your Success in Weather Forecasting for Landscape Photography

Let’s say you get up in the morning hoping to get a good sunset picture later in the day. After a quick look at the models, you identify a precise location with ideal conditions for sunset photos. Even better, it overlaps with the evening Golden Hour. As you go through the day, model runs start showing a significant increase in thick, low-level clouds in the evening. Instead of giving up, toss your planned sunset shoot out the window. You pick a new location and shoot some breathtaking black-and-whites of dramatic sunlight shining through the thick low-level clouds on the rugged landscape like a spotlight.

Without the help of the weather models, you would have come away with nothing. When integrating weather into my landscape photography, I use the same strategy I did when I was storm chasing.

Applying Storm Chasing Strategy to Landscape Photography

On paper, storm chasing strategy is shockingly simple.

1. Look for where and when the ingredients for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes best come together.
2. Drive to that target area, arriving shortly before that window of peak potential opens.
3. Wait for storms to fire.
4. Once storms initiate, go chase them, keeping in mind the important balance of safety vs getting the shot.

Unfortunately, in practice, it’s never that easy. Your window of opportunity will constantly shift in both time and space. Better opportunities will appear elsewhere. Sometimes, those opportunities won’t even manifest, leaving you with the inevitable bust. Things happen incredibly fast when you’re storm chasing, so you need to be quick on your feet and always be able to react to whatever curveballs Mother Nature throws at you.

Thankfully, things don’t happen as fast in the world of landscape photography. Having more time to react means you have a higher likelihood of success. However, you’ll still need to be just as able to react and adjust, because Mother Nature will throw you curveballs. You can easily apply basic storm chasing strategy to landscape photography using different parameters. Instead of looking for where severe storms are most likely to occur, look for where you’ll get the best sunsets, golden hours, fog, etc. We’ll circle back to this in a bit.

Learn to Embrace Failure in Your Landscape Photography

When dealing with the weather, the only thing that’s for certain is uncertainty. Succeeding at storm chasing requires skill, quick thinking, and luck, as most tornadoes are only on the ground for less than 30 seconds. The same goes for lightning photography. If just 5% of your lightning photos come out, you’re doing extraordinarily well.

Rest assured, you will have a far greater success rate integrating weather into your landscape photography. They’ll be absolutely stunning when you get it right. But you must accept that things can and will go wrong. You will have days where you completely bust. Yes, it’s incredibly frustrating when it happens, but it’s part of the game. Always remember that even the best in the business have off days.

My Own Hero to Zero Experience

Over the course of 9 days in 2012, I pulled the ultimate hero to zero move. However, I still managed to get breathtaking photos despite the most epic storm chasing bust I ever experienced. On 19 May, a powerful storm system came off the Rocky Mountains and across the central Great Plains. Everything seemed to be in place for a massive outbreak of tornadoes across southern Nebraska.

I was living in Norman, Oklahoma at the time, and really didn’t want to drive all the way to Nebraska to have to fight the storm chaser crowds. Instead, I searched the models for a target closer to home. Models hinted at a very brief window opening up along the Kansas-Oklahoma border that was very favorable for tornadoes right before sunset. It wasn’t much of a window – only about 15 to 20 minutes, but it was low risk and high reward. I had to take the gamble.

Right on cue, storms were firing just as I crossed the state line from Oklahoma into Kansas. I got on the first storm I could find and hoped for the best. And boy, did that gamble pay off. Over the course of about 25 minutes, that supercell produced nearly a dozen tornadoes. A spectacular EF-3 tornado capped the evening off, creating a dramatic scene with the setting sun behind it.

The Sweetest Weather Forecasting Victory

Now, here’s where that victory gets even sweeter. The target up in Nebraska that looked really juicy at the start of the day completely fell apart. There was not a single tornado up there, while I got to enjoy the show in Kansas all to myself. As I drove back towards Interstate 35 to head home, I passed all kinds of chase vehicles going towards the storm. I knew the storm was already wrapped in rain and had finished producing tornadoes. They were too late.

An Epic Weather Forecasting Bust Leads to a Satisfying Day of Landscape Photography

Eight days later, I was back in the field for another round of storm chasing. This time, western Kansas was the target, and conditions looked very favorable for tornadoes. I ended up driving nearly 300 miles from Norman, and didn’t see much more than a couple fair weather puffy clouds. The capping inversion hadn’t broken. There would be no storms that day. Then I had to drive the same 300 miles home.

After abandoning the storm chase, I was determined to come home with something…anything. I knew the spring wheat harvest takes place in late May in western Oklahoma, so I decided to try to get some photos of the wheat fields in the late afternoon sun and then catch the sunset at Gloss Mountain State Park. If you’ve never seen wheat fields at harvest time, I highly recommend it. You’ll see right away why Katharine Lee Bates used the “amber waves of grain” lyrics in America the Beautiful.

The photos were certainly nothing I’d be rushing out to try to sell to an art gallery, but as an alternative to coming home empty-handed, it was oddly and uniquely very satisfying.

Weather Forecasting Models for Landscape Photography

For landscape photography weather forecasting, I use the same models that I use for my weather analyses and storm chasing. For the greatest success, you’ll want to use a combination of global and regional models over both the short and long term. My goal here is to introduce you to each model so that you know when to use each model, as well as what their strengths and weaknesses are. We’ll dive into model interpretation and analysis in a future post.

What Is Output When the Weather Models Run?

All weather models output their forecasts in four dimensions: latitude, longitude, height, and time. Logic may dictate that the output formats may vary from model to model, but in reality, they generally output the same three formats.

• 2D Geographic Maps
• Vertical Cross-Sections of the Atmosphere
• Time Series Graphs

For basic landscape photography weather forecasting, you can gather all you need from the 2D geographic maps, so these tutorials will focus our efforts on those maps. If you’re interested in learning more, we will cover the other two outputs in future tutorials and online courses.

Global Forecast System (GFS) Model

The GFS model is one of the go-to models for general global forecasting. It has received criticism in the past for poor performance, most notably when it predicted that Hurricane Sandy would go harmlessly out to sea. As a result, the model received major upgrades in 2017, 2019, and 2021. While it has performed much better as of late, especially with tropical weather, the GFS has still not fully closed the performance gap with the European model.

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Model

The ECMWF model has been around since 1975, but really cemented itself amongst the world’s top weather models when it absolutely nailed its prediction for Hurricane Sandy. Even 10 days out, the ECMWF missed the exact location of Sandy’s landfall by less than 100 km. Today, the ECMWF is still considered to be the most accurate global model, but other models are closing the gap. However, in 2020, ECMWF scientists were awarded time on the world’s most supercomputer to run their model at a 1 km resolution on a global scale. If that can be successful in the long-term, it will be a game changer.

United Kingdom Meteorological Agency (UKMET) Model

The UKMET model is designed for making medium-range forecasts throughout the entire northern hemisphere. However, it is best known for being used in tropical weather prediction. It is routinely used in tandem with the GFS and the ECMWF when making forecasts.

Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) Model

Also known as the GEM model, Environment Canada originally created the GDPS model as a comparison or check to the GFS model. While it is now the default weather model that the Government of Canada uses, it can be used interchangeably with or in place of the GFS model.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model

20 years ago, the NAM was the best model available for storm chasers. While other models have since overtaken it, the NAM is still a very accurate model for significant weather events across North America. It initializes itself with GFS data, so it’s backed by one of the most respected models in the world.

Rapid Refresh (RAP) Model

Designed as a fast-updating version of the NAM, the Rapid Refresh model is a favorite amongst storm chasers and hurricane fanatics alike. When using it for storm chasing, it’s one of the most accurate models available today. However, you must keep in mind not to rely too heavily on it. Its 13 km resolution is too coarse to resolve individual thunderstorms.

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model

The HRRR model is the most accurate short-term model available today. I used it all the time for storm chasing, and it never let me down once. Its 3 km resolution if fine enough to resolve nearly every type of weather phenomenon, allowing you to pinpoint precise targets with laser-focused accuracy. In the context of weather forecasting for landscape photography, use it to target sunrises, sunsets, storms, cold fronts, fog/mist, snow, and much more. You can even go beyond Earth’s atmosphere and use it to identify the best nights for astrophotography.

Where to Get Weather Model Output Online

Are you ready to dive into the models and take advantage of weather forecasting to improve your landscape photography? The outputs for all of the models we have covered are readily available online free of charge. While I am in no way affiliated with any of the following organizations, these are my favorite resources for weather models, in no particular order. You can find many more with a quick Google Search.

• Twister Data
• Pivotal Weather
• NOAA NCEP Model Analyses and Guidance
• NOAA: Rapid Refresh and HRRR
• Penn State University E-Wall

General Strategy for Model Analysis and Weather Forecasting

We will dive into model analysis in much greater detail in future tutorials and online courses, but I wanted to at least give you a brief intro. Without knowing how to analyze them, the models are completely worthless. This strategy can be applied to any type of modeling. It’s not limited to just weather forecasting or anything to do with landscape photography.

First and foremost, always use multiple models, regardless of the type of forecasting you’re doing. The more models you have in agreement, the higher the confidence in your forecast will be. Additionally, consider the Hurricane Sandy example. The GFS showed Sandy going harmlessly out to sea. All the other models showed it slamming into the east coast of the United States. Imagine what would have happened if emergency management had been using only the GFS. They would have been caught totally flat footed. Once you have the models selected you want to use, start with the following strategy.

1. Look at the current observations and the synoptic (large) scale picture. What’s going on at the regional and/or national level?
2. Then start to drill down to your target area. As you zoom in, use models with a finer resolution if you can. You can’t understand the small-scale meteorology without knowing what’s going on at the large scale.
3. Look for where the parameters for your desired photography best come together.

Know Which Models to Favor in Your Weather Forecasting

If the models you’re using do not agree, it’s critical to know which ones to favor. You can conduct a quick model evaluation by answering the following questions.

• How have the models performed in recent runs? Have they been accurate?
• How has the model historically performed for the type of weather you wish to include in your landscape photography? Look at its performance over the past 5 years or so.
• Has the model been consistent from run-to-run? Or is it all over the place?

Remember how consistent the GFS was during my analysis of Hurricane Henri? That’s why I favored it so heavily in my forecasts. And in the end, it ended up being correct. In the 48 hours prior to landfall, the other models brought Henri’s projected track as far west as New York City prior to swinging back east. Henri made landfall near Westerly, Rhode Island.

Model Parameters You’ll Commonly Use Weather Forecasting For Landscape Photography

Weather models calculate and output tons of parameters. For landscape photography, there are several that you will routinely use.

• Temperature
• Wind, Height, and Pressure
• Dewpoint and Relative Humidity
• Cloud Cover, given as a percentage
• Predicted Radar
• Precipitable Water (how much water is available in the atmosphere to make precipitation)
• Vorticity and Vertical Velocity (used to determine if cloud cover is increasing or decreasing)

We’ll cover parameters specific to severe, fire, and winter weather in a future tutorial.

Quick Overview of Weather Forecasting Parameters in Landscape Photography

In landscape photography, you’ll find that you have a core set of parameters that you routinely use. Here are some of the most common ones.

Next Steps

Now that you’ve been introduced to the models, the next step is to dive into how to use them. In the next tutorial, we’ll expand on the last section. You’ll learn what each weather forecasting parameter is as well as how to apply it to landscape photography. If you have any questions, please leave them in the comments below or email them to me directly. I look forward to seeing you in our next tutorial.

Top Photo: Beautiful Fall Cape Cod Sunset
Woods Hole, Massachusetts – October, 2021

The post 7 Weather Forecasting Models That Will Improve Your Landscape Photography appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

So has the Delta wave peaked? Because the United States is so big and diverse, the best answer I can give you right now, unfortunately is “it’s complicated.” The good news is that things are looking better than they were just a month ago…depending on where you are.

Current Overview

The COVID-19 Delta Variant continues to absolutely rip through states with low vaccination rates. The summer surge that originally started in Missouri and Arkansas quickly spread across Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. That epicenter has now starting to drift north into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

Thankfully, case loads are starting to come down in some areas. However, case loads continue to rise across far too much of the country. We’ve still got a long ways to go before the pandemic is over.

The Summer Delta Wave has Peaked in the Southeast, but the Wave is Far From Over

After the relentless surge this summer, the delta wave has peaked in the southeast. New daily case counts across the majority of counties in Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia, and Florida are now falling.

Unfortunately, this map gives me cause for concern. Even though I am cautiously optimistic the surge has peaked, plenty of red flags remain. An alarming number of counties are still showing an increase in cases over the past two weeks. This spread is still raging in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, and the Carolinas. These areas still have the lowest vaccination rates in the country. Therefore, there remains plenty of vulnerable population still left for the COVID-19 Delta Variant to infect.

It’s a cruel reminder of just how vicious the Delta Variant is, and that a decline in cases can turn around and start surging again anytime. Both the Delta wave and the COVID-19 pandemic are far from over.

The Delta Wave is Rapidly Spreading North and West

The southeast’s epicenter has spread north. Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia are all on fire right now. Same with the southern parts of Ohio, Indiana and Illinois. Further west, Wyoming, Idaho, and the eastern parts of Washington and Oregon are experiencing rapid COVID-19 spread and extreme risk levels on Matt’s Risk Index.

Interestingly, the western epicenter is getting slammed on both sides. A cluster of Delta cases that started in northern California and southwest Oregon has been swiftly sweeping in from the southwest. On the other side, the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally seeded another superspreader cluster of the Delta Variant. That outbreak has been pushing into the same region from the east. That cluster has also rapidly spread south. It merged with the remains of the Missouri and Arkansas cluster from earlier in the summer. It has since spread across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Finally, don’t forget about our friends in Alaska and Hawaii. The COVID-19 Delta Variant has been ravaging both states, with both cases and hospitalizations at all-time pandemic highs. While new daily cases appear to have peaked in Hawaii on 2 September, they are still rapidly rising in Alaska. Again, remember to take these statistics with caution. New case counts can quickly turn around and start rising again without warning.

If You’re In the Northeast, Don’t Rest on Your Laurels. The Delta Wave is Still Coming. It Just Won’t Be as Bad.

It’s easy to look at the lower COVID-19 case rates in the northeast and attribute it to the region’s high vaccination rate. Indeed, you should. A 60 to 70 percent vaccination rate is responsible for the northeast largely avoiding the ongoing Delta Wave.

However, there is still one big wild card in the northeast. It’s still far too early to establish the effect reopening schools has had on the ongoing Delta wave. Most schools in the northeast do not start until after Labor Day. As a result, their first day of school would have fallen during the week of 6 September this year.

Keep in mind that many K-12 students are not yet eligible for COVID-19 vaccines. Since it takes 10 to 14 days for COVID-19 transmission to show up in test results, we will not know the full effect of getting back in the classroom in the northeast for at least a couple more weeks. Additionally, cases are expected to increase as colder weather drives people back indoors as we go throughout the fall.

Thankfully, the northeast has the highest vaccination rate in the country. Any additional surge from the current Delta wave should be mild and peak quickly compared to the rest of the country. Yes, COVID-19 is absolutely ripping through schools in certain parts of the United States. However, unvaccinated adults remain the primary spreaders of the current Delta surge.

Once Again, Look to Australia for an Ominous Warning for the Winter

Australia’s location in the Southern Hemisphere has now twice given Northern Hemisphere countries a sneak preview of what could be in store for their winter. Indeed, Australia’s 2020 winter surge began in late June in the State of Victoria. That surge sent Melbourne into lockdown until the wave finally subsided in late September. The United States ignored that stark warning. The result was predictable: a relentless seven-month surge that peaked at nearly 300,000 cases per day.

Those same warning signs are now flashing once again. The Delta Variant has shattered COVID-19 records across Australia as winter now mercifully turns into spring down under. This year, Australia’s winter wave began around 10 July. It has since surged to more than four times the 2020 peak, thanks to the Delta Variant. As a result, Prime Minister Scott Morrison recently announced that Australia will shift from its zero-COVID strategy. Instead, it will learn to live with the virus as vaccinations ramp up over the next few months. If its current vaccination rate holds, Australia will vaccinate 70% of its eligible population by mid-October.

Winter Outlook for the United States

So what does this mean for the United States? At the very least, it all but guarantees a fifth wave as people gather indoors this fall and travel for the holidays. Will it be worse than last winter? We don’t know yet. It all boils down to the tug-of-war between the vaccines and the highly contagious Delta Variant. Whichever one wins will drive the course of the fifth wave. About 55% of the US population is fully vaccinated. At this point, it’s really a flip of a coin as to which way it goes.

One important thing to note is that the US is currently more vaccinated (55%) than Australia was (36%) heading into its winter back in April and May. However, Americans have a much higher resistance to COVID-19 restrictions and vaccines than Australia does, which will likely nullify that advantage.

Conclusion

I’m cautiously optimistic that, with a few exceptions, the Delta wave has reached its peak in the United States. However, it opens up a bigger question. How quickly will the case counts drop before the inevitable fifth wave sets in? And what happens once that fifth wave sets in? Only time will tell. But I’ll leave you with this. Have a look at the near perfect inverse relationship between vaccination rates and Matt’s Risk Index.

Many infectious disease experts said that the Delta Variant would set the end date of the pandemic back one year. Hopefully through vaccinations and infections, we can start approaching herd immunity be the Spring of 2022. In the meantime, there are a few promising signs. First, there are a growing number of countries that have had a major Delta Wave. Many of those countries have kept case loads down following those waves.

Second, for as contagious and nasty as the Delta Variant is, that may actually be working for us. Further variants have not been able to rapidly spread because Delta is so dominant. That doesn’t necessarily mean they can’t but if Delta remains dominant, it should be easier for us to corral it. The United States can still avoid the misery and disaster of last winter. But that window to avoid it is rapidly closing on us. Let’s all do our part to put this nightmare behind us once and for all.

Top Photo: Red Rock Backcountry
Kaibab National Forest, Arizona – July, 2016

The post Is the United States Mercifully Past the Delta Wave Peak? appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

Big Picture Overview

Before we dive into the models, I always like to look at the big picture of the upper atmosphere across the United States. That way, we know where steering currents are. Additionally, we’ll also be able to know whether there’s anything in the upper atmosphere that could strengthen or weaken Ida as it churns towards the Gulf Coast.

The main thing that stands out to me on this map is the presence of what is largely zonal flow. In other words, the jet stream is fairly straight, running right along the US-Canada border. It’s a long way from the Gulf Coast, so it likely will not affect Ida the way it did Henri last weekend. Additionally, there is an area of high pressure centered over the Carolinas that is acting to steer Ida from Cuba straight up into Louisiana.

Furthermore, it means there is little to no shear over the southern United States and northern Mexico. Coupled with the very warm waters over the Gulf of Mexico, we expect Ida will rapidly intensify as it clears Cuba and the Yucatán.

Current Watches and Warnings for Ida on the Gulf Coast

As of the 1 PM CDT advisory on Friday, Ida is officially a hurricane. Earlier in the day, the National Hurricane Center issued watches and warnings for the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect from:

• Vermillion Bay, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama state line, including all of Lake Pontchartrain

Topical Storm Warnings are currently in effect fom

• Vermillion Bay, Louisiana to Cameron, Louisiana
• The Louisiana/Mississippi state line to the Mississippi/Alabama state line

Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect from

• The Mississippi/Alabama state line to Orange Beach, Alabama, including all of Mobile Bay

In addition, Storm Surge Warnings are in effect from the Texas/Louisiana state line all the way to the Florida/Alabama state line. Storm surge is always a problem with Gulf of Mexico hurricanes because the water has nowhere to go but inland. On its current track, storm surge is expected to peak between 10 and 15 feet between Morgan City, LA and Lake Pontchartrain. That’s plenty high enough to cause serious flooding problems. If you live in southeastern Louisiana and are outside of the levee system, I would be getting out of there. Right now.

Model Overview

Unlike Henri, there hasn’t been much deviation in the models over the past 48 hours. They are all in lockstep with each other. As a result, we can make forecasts with a high degree of confidence. Also, please remember not to focus on one particular outcome or solution when you look at model output. Instead, look for patterns. Where do they agree? Where do they disagree? If they disagree, why do they disagree? Are there any anomalous runs that should be immediately discounted? Models that have been consistently accurate that are in agreement are the ones you want to focus on.

The GFS (American) Model

The GFS absolutely nailed its prediction of Hurricane Henri last weekend, unlike the other models that drifted west prior to landfall. Because it did such a good job, we’ll again use it as our basis for forecasting Ida’s approach to the Gulf coast. This morning’s GFS runs remain consistent with both Friday’s and Thursday’s runs.

The ECMWF (European) Model

The ECMWF remains largely in agreement with the GFS for both strength and track. However, it does slow Ida down prior to landfall, bringing it ashore Sunday evening instead of midday Sunday. Thankfully, if that does verify, a lot of Ida will be over land when the slow down happens. You can’t rule out any significant additional strengthening, but it’s unlikely.

The UKMET (United Kingdom) Model

On Friday, the UKMET brings Ida noticeably further west than either the GFS or the ECMWF. Interestingly, the UKMET strongly favored a more westward track with Henri as well before coming into agreement with the other models within 24 hours of landfall. It appears to be doing the same thing with Ida. Based on its behavior with Henri, we’ll definitely need to take that into account when we make our official forecast.

The UKMET has also slightly reduced Ida’s strength at landfall, from 105 knots down to 96 knots. Keep in mind, 96 knot wind speeds still constitute a Category 3 Major Hurricane. However, I believe that the reduction in strength is a result of the shift in track back to the east. It is not due to any atmospheric conditions that would hinder strengthening. The more easterly track means the less time Ida spends over the warm, open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, it will not be as strong when it makes landfall.

The GDPS (Canadian) Model

The GDPS really stands out as an outlier for Ida. It has Ida making landfall further east and as a much weaker storm than any of the other three models. It also predicts that Ida will be moving faster than the other models, making landfall on Sunday morning.

Interestingly, the GDPS has been very consistent with its previous runs on both Friday and Thursday. However, the track is starting to shift back to the west this morning, which closer aligns it with the other three models. This mornings GDPS runs also show stronger winds, but they’re still far less than the other three models. Coupled with how well it performed with Henri, we certainly cannot rule out its forecast, but my initial gut feeling is that we’ll have to give it less weight than the other three models.

Model Summary for Ida on the Gulf Coast

This morning’s model are all in close agreement with each other. Unlike Henri, model runs have also been very consistent over the past few days. As a result, we’ll be able to give each model close to equal weight, with the possible exception of the GDPS. We can also make our forecast with a high degree of confidence.

Our Official Forecast for the Impact of Ida on the Gulf Coast

With the models largely in close agreement, we’ll weigh the GFS, ECMWF, and the UKMET essentially the same. However, I believe we can completely disregard the strength forecast of the GDPS model. I lived in Tampa, Florida for six years and watched plenty of Gulf of Mexico hurricanes over those years.

Over the past 20 years, do you know how many hurricanes have emerged in the central Gulf just north of Cuba and the Yucatán in late August and early September and did not rapidly intensify? Aside from a small handful of poorly organized tropical depressions and weak tropical storms, essentially none. That’s why I believe there is basically zero chance of Ida being a Category 1 or weak Category 2 hurricane when it hits the Gulf Coast as the GDPS says.

For the track forecast, I’m inclined to give a bit less weight to the UKMET’s westerly track, especially now that it’s shifting back to the east. Last weekend, it heavily favored a westerly track for Henri before shifting back east in the 24 hours leading up to landfall. It is doing that again with Ida.

With the cutoff for a major hurricane being 96 knots or 111 mph, we can confidently say that Ida will be a major hurricane when it slams into the Gulf Coast in Louisiana.

Post Landfall

After landfall, Ida will continue to post a significant risk of both coastal and inland flooding. Parts of southeastern Louisiana could see 10 to 20 inches of rain. Further north, the highest risk of flooding remains across all of southern and central Mississippi and northern Alabama. Stream and creek flooding is also possible across much of Tennessee.

The National Hurricane Center Forecast

Because the models are so tightly in agreement, our forecast is nearly identical to the Hurricane Center’s official cone. I believe Ida will follow the center of the Hurricane Center’s cone, unlike at certain times last weekend.

Conclusion

Ida is a serious and dangerous storm. If you’re on the Gulf Coast, you need to take it seriously. Please heed all mandatory evacuations and local orders. There’s usually a reason they issue them. If you need to evacuate, you need to be getting out right now.

Ida will likely be a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Louisiana. However, one bit of solace is that Ida did pass over Cuba instead of staying over the open waters between Cuba and the Yucatán. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to weaken Ida, but instead will just delay the strengthening and intensification. Stay calm, and remember: Don’t be scared. Be prepared.

The post Hurricane Ida on the Gulf Coast: Saturday Morning Outlook appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.

As expected, the upper-level steering currents have pushed Henri back to the east. It looks like the GFS (American) model was right all along. Its consistency and history of being right with Henri is why have been saying over the past three days that Henri will track east of the center of the National Hurricane Center‘s cones.

I still expect Henri to make a left hand turn while it comes ashore, as an upper-level low tries to sling shot the hurricane into Ontario. However, as we discussed yesterday, it will quickly run into a road block from a strong high pressure over Québec, briefly stalling out before being ejected across Northern New England and up into the Canadian Maritimes.

Current Watches and Warnings

The watches and warnings for Henri remain unchanged since yesterday. Hurricane Warnings remain in effect from

• The Massachusetts/Rhode Island State Line to New Haven, CT
• Block Island
• Port Jefferson, NY to the west end of Fire Island, NY

Likewise, Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect from

• Chatham, MA to the Massachusetts/Rhode Island State Line
• Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket
• New Haven, CT to Port Jefferson, NY, including all of New York City
• The west end of Fire Island, NY to Point Pleasant, NJ

Storm Threats and the Timing of Each

With Henri’s imminent landfall in southern New England, we are going to shift a bit from discussing exactly where the eye will come ashore to the timing of the threats Henri will bring to the region.

Wind

Because Henri is expected to weaken so rapidly as it starts interacting with the land in southern New England, most places along the south coast will likely see the strongest winds before the storm makes landfall. Even if you remove the effect of the land, Henri is over cool waters, and will be weakening as it approaches the coast.

This timing of the strongest winds is especially true for the eastern half of the storm, primarily from Narragansett Bay to Cape Cod and the Islands. Because Henri has been pushed back tot he east, those locations will likely see stronger winds than were predicted just yesterday. Wind gusts in excess of 50 knots are all but certain, except possibly for the outer portions of Cape Cod. The potential is there to see gusts to 70 knots, but it’s far from a guarantee.

The one exception is in the area immediately around the location that the eye of Henri makes landfall. The eye is expected to pass near Block Island and the far eastern tip of Long Island before coming ashore near the Connecticut/Rhode Island state line.

Storm Surge

Because winds are out of the south (onshore) in the eastern half of the storm, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts will bear the brunt of the storm surge. West of Henri’s eye, winds will be out of the north (offshore), with the exception of the north coast of Long Island. However, Long Island Sound is so small compared to the open Atlantic Ocean, storm surge effects on the north shore of Long Island will be less than points further east.

To determine which locations will see the greatest impact from the storm surge, you simply need to look at where the window for the strongest winds overlaps with the timing of high tide. You’ll find the lowest impacts where the strongest winds overlap with low tide, which occurs about 6 hours before and after each high tide. Also, don’t forget that locations closer to the eye tend to see greater impacts than locations on the edge of Henri.

What Does This Table Mean?

Thankfully, there is not one location that really jumps out at me as being much higher risk for storm surge. High tide in most spots in both Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay will fall at the beginning of that window of maximum winds, which will help limit the impact of the storm surge. Hyannis is far enough out in the outer part of Henri’s circulation that lower wind speeds will help offset the fact that high tide falls at the end of window of maximum winds. Finally, the Connecticut locations will see most likely see offshore winds. New London may see a brief period of onshore winds this morning, but they will quickly shift as Henri approaches. I would expect to see 3 to 5 foot storm surge in all of the above locations.

Inland Flooding

Based on model guidance and early radar returns, the majority of the rain is in the western Half of Henri. As a result, the highest risk for inland flooding will be in Connecticut, western Massachusetts, southeastern New York, and northern New Jersey. Depending on where Henri stalls out to make its turn to the east, southern Vermont could be at a higher risk for flooding as well. The rest of New England is by no means out of the woods, but is at much lower risk given the sharp gradient in forecast rainfall totals. Remember, if you see flooding, Turn Around, Don’t Drown!

Power Outages

Widespread power outages should be expected across most of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Long Island. Downed trees are the #1 cause of power outages in storms like this. New England has had a lot of rain in recent weeks. As a result, the soil is quite saturated, making it easier for Henri to uproot trees. If you see downed power lines, don’t go anywhere near them! Back away and call the electric company.

Be prepared to be without power for a while if you do lose it. We’re talking days here, not hours. But thankfully, barring any unforeseen catastrophes, it shouldn’t be weeks, either, despite some of the reports you may have heard on the news. Further north, it would not surprise me at all to see isolated power outages across parts of Vermont, New Hampshire, and southern Maine.

Conclusion

Hurricane Henri has arrived in southern New England. By now, you should be hunkered down and sheltering in place until the storm passes. Henri will likely be the most significant tropical cyclone to impact southern New England since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

Once Henri makes landfall, it will rapidly weaken. It is expected to be a tropical depression by 2 AM EDT Monday, and will be just a remnant low by midday. However, that should not be taken lightly. Just because the wind diminishes, it does not mean the threat for flooding has dissipated, too. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Be smart, stay safe, and enjoy the ride.

The post Hurricane Henri in New England: Sunday Morning Outlook appeared first on Matthew Gove Blog.